Thursday, March 12, 2020

2020 Democratic Delegate Allocation: ARIZONA


Election type: primary
Date: March 17
Number of delegates: 80 [14 at-large, 9 PLEOs, 44 congressional district, 13 automatic/superdelegates]
Allocation method: proportional statewide and at the congressional district level
Threshold to qualify for delegates: 15%
2016: proportional primary
Delegate selection plan

Changes since 2016
If one followed the 2016 series on the Republican process here at FHQ, then you may end up somewhat disappointed. The two national parties manage the presidential nomination process differently. The Republican National Committee is much less hands-on in regulating state and state party activity in the delegate selection process than the Democratic National Committee is. That leads to a lot of variation from state to state and from cycle to cycle on the Republican side. Meanwhile, the DNC is much more top down in its approach. Thresholds stay the same. It is a 15 percent barrier that candidates must cross in order to qualify for delegates. That is standard across all states. The allocation of delegates is roughly proportional. Again, that is applied to every state.

That does not mean there are no changes. The calendar has changed as have other facets of the process such as whether a state has a primary or a caucus.

Like Missouri, it may look like the Arizona primary shifted from 2016 to 2020, but it did not. Instead, that appearance is based on the language of the primary law in the Grand Canyon state. Moved from late February to late March for the 2016 cycle, the Arizona primary is set by law for the first Tuesday after March 15. Since March 15 fell on a Tuesday in 2016, the Arizona primary was a week late. But in 2020, the first Tuesday after March 15 is much closer to March 15. Just two days later in fact.

Additionally, there were also some changes to the Arizona delegation for 2020. As compared to 2016, Arizona Democrats lost six district delegates and two at-large delegates while gaining a couple of superdelegates. PLEO delegates maintained their 2016 level.

Other than in those two areas, very little changed in the delegate selection process for Arizona Democrats from four years ago.

The standard 15 percent qualifying threshold applies both statewide and on the congressional district level.

Delegate allocation (at-large and PLEO delegates)
To win any at-large or PLEO (pledged Party Leader and Elected Officials) delegates a candidate must win 15 percent of the statewide vote. Only the votes of those candidates above the threshold will count for the purposes of the separate allocation of these two pools of delegates.

See New Hampshire synopsis for an example of how the delegate allocation math works for all categories of delegates.

Delegate allocation (congressional district delegates)
Arizona's 44 congressional district delegates are split across nine congressional districts and have a variation of three delegates across districts from the measure of Democratic strength Arizona Democrats are using based on the results of the 2016 presidential election and 2018 gubernatorial election in the state. That method apportions delegates as follows...
CD1 - 5 delegates*
CD2 - 6 delegates
CD3 - 5 delegates*
CD4 - 3 delegates*
CD5 - 5 delegates*
CD6 - 5 delegates*
CD7 - 4 delegates
CD8 - 5 delegates*
CD9 - 6 delegates

*Bear in mind that districts with odd numbers of national convention delegates are potentially important to winners (and those above the qualifying threshold) within those districts. Rounding up for an extra delegate initially requires less in those districts than in districts with even numbers of delegates.

Delegate allocation (automatic delegates/superdelegates)
Superdelegates are free to align with a candidate of their choice at a time of their choosing. While their support may be a signal to voters in their state (if an endorsement is made before voting in that state), superdelegates will only vote on the first ballot at the national convention if half of the total number of delegates -- pledged plus superdelegates -- have been pledged to one candidate. Otherwise, superdelegates are locked out of the voting unless 1) the convention adopts rules that allow them to vote or 2) the voting process extends to a second ballot. But then all delegates, not just superdelegates will be free to vote for any candidate.

[NOTE: All Democratic delegates are pledged and not bound to their candidates. They are to vote in good conscience for the candidate to whom they have been pledged, but technically do not have to. But they tend to because the candidates and their campaigns are involved in vetting and selecting their delegates through the various selection processes on the state level. Well, the good campaigns are anyway.]

The 44 district delegates in Arizona are chosen at congressional district caucuses on April 28  by precinct committeepersons elected in August 2018 and the candidates for district delegate. PLEO delegates and then at-large delegates will be selected on May 16 by a quorum of the district delegates chosen in April.

Importantly, if a candidate drops out of the race before the selection of statewide delegates, then any statewide delegates allocated to that candidate will be reallocated to the remaining candidates. If Candidate X is in the race in mid-May when the Arizona statewide delegate selection takes place but Candidate Y is not, then any statewide delegates allocated to Candidate Y in the March primary would be reallocated to Candidate X. [This same feature is not something that applies to district delegates.] This reallocation only applies if a candidate has fully dropped out. Candidates with suspended campaigns are still candidates and can fill those slots allocated them. This is unlikely to be a factor with just two viable candidates in the race.

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