Saturday, April 4, 2009

The 2012 Presidential Primary Calendar (4/4/09)

For the most up-to-date version of this calendar see the left sidebar under the 2012 electoral college projection or click here.

With a bill having been introduced to move the presidential primary in Georgia, another 2012 Presidential Primary Calendar update is in order. Here again are the rules from the last update:
  1. Caucus states are italicized while primary states are not.
  2. States that have changed dates appear twice (or more) on the calendar; once by the old date and once by the new date. The old date will be struck through while the new date will be color-coded with the amount of movement (in days) in parentheses. States in green are states that have moved to earlier dates on the calendar and states in red are those that have moved to later dates. Arkansas, for example, has moved its 2012 primary and moved it back 104 days.
  3. You'll also see that some of the states on the calendar are live links. These are links to active legislation that would shift the date on which that state's presidential primary would be held in 2012. That allows us to track the status of the legislation more easily (in the states that allow you to link directly to the bill status).
  4. For the sake of tracking relevant legislation dealing with presidential primaries generally, but not the dates directly (ie: Minnesota potentially switching from caucus to primary), FHQ will include links in parentheses next to such states (H for House action, S for Senate action).

New Additions: Georgia

2012 Presidential Primary Calendar

Monday, January 16, 2012: Iowa caucuses*

Tuesday, January 24
: New Hampshire*

Saturday, January 28: Nevada caucuses*, South Carolina*

A note on the placement of Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina.

Tuesday, January 31
: Florida

Tuesday, February 7 (Super Tuesday): Alabama, Arkansas, California, Connecticut, Delaware, Georgia, Illinois (H / S), Missouri, New Jersey, New York, Oklahoma (H), Tennessee and Utah

Saturday, February 11: Louisiana

Tuesday, February 14: Maryland, Virginia

Tuesday, February 21: Wisconsin

Tuesday, February 28: Arizona**, Michigan***

Tuesday, March 6: Massachusetts***, Ohio, Rhode Island, Texas and Vermont

Tuesday, March 13: Mississippi

Tuesday, March 20: Colorado caucuses****

Tuesday, April 24: Pennsylvania

Tuesday, May 8: Indiana (S), North Carolina and West Virginia

Tuesday, May 15: Nebraska, Oregon

Tuesday, May 22: Arkansas (-104), Idaho, Kentucky

Tuesday, June 5: Montana, New Mexico***** and South Dakota

*New Hampshire law calls for the Granite state to hold a primary on the second Tuesday of March or seven days prior to any other similar election, whichever is earlier. Florida is first now, so New Hampshire would be a week earlier at the latest. Traditionally, Iowa has gone on the Monday a week prior to New Hampshire. For the time being we'll wedge Nevada and South Carolina in on the Saturday between New Hampshire and Florida, but these are just guesses at the moment. Any rogue states could cause a shift.

**In Arizona the governor can use his or her proclamation powers to move the state's primary to a date on which the event would have an impact on the nomination. In 2004 and 2008 the primary was moved to the first Tuesday in February.

***Massachusetts and Michigan are the only states that passed a frontloading bill prior to 2008 that was not permanent. The Bay state reverts to its first Tuesday in March date in 2012 while Michigan will fall back to the fourth Tuesday in February.

****The Colorado Democratic and Republican parties have the option to move their caucuses from the third Tuesday in March to the first Tuesday in February.

*****The law in New Mexico allows the parties to decide when to hold their nominating contests. The Democrats have gone in early February in the last two cycles, but the GOP has held steady in June. They have the option of moving however.

The Green Papers is also getting in on the 2012 act now. They've got a nice delegate projection up for the Democrats in 2012 and what they're calling a primary calendar for them as well. Sure, it amounts to applying the 2008 rules to 2012 in terms of when Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina will be, but that would mean that Nevada would be ahead of New Hampshire on the calendar and I just can't buy into that. There is no way New Hampshire is going to allow Nevada to slide into the period between Iowa and New Hampshire. It just won't happen unless the parties try and do away with the Iowa and New Hampshire exemption. As long as they allow both to be exempt, though, New Hampshire is only going to let Iowa go before it. Case in point: Just look at the law that has been proposed in the Granite state General Court. That is meant to deal specifically with the possible encroachment of another caucus; namely Nevada. So no, I'm going to leave Nevada behind New Hampshire on this projection of the calendar. But the Green Papers did make me think twice about it.

Recent Posts:
Georgia in 2012: Back to March?

Championship Set in NPR's 2012 Bracket

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