Wednesday, June 4, 2008

The Electoral College Maps (6/3/08)

Out of the eight Survey USA state polls released yesterday, none of them polled the Clinton-McCain match up. If that is indicative (and last night's results tell me that it will be), then this may be the last week that FHQ includes a Clinton map in the weekly electoral college breakdown. For this week, though, the Clinton map is still here, as are the Obama-McCain and McCain margin maps. Since last Thursday there have been 23 new polls in 19 different states. The outcome of both electoral college scenarios did not change at all, though, and only a few of those states actually switched categories.
Losing Michigan and North Dakota a week ago and only gaining in Colorado put Obama behind McCain. And while Texas slipped out of the McCain lean category and into the Strong McCain column this week, Obama made up ground in Missouri where he has lagged behind where Clinton has been relative to McCain. The Show-Me state is now a toss up that favors the Arizona senator. Like Ohio, though, it is trending toward Obama, which is something that Obama would need if he were trailing McCain by 24 electoral votes. If those two states were to go to Obama, it would effectively turn the tables on the current electoral college numbers between the two presumptive nominees.
Little changed on the Clinton-McCain map this week. Most of that was due the the decline in actual data on the Clinton-McCain pairing. There were but ten polls in ten states which asked about the hypothetical Clinton-McCain race and only Connecticut switched in any noticeable way. Clinton's support in the Constitution state increased pushing the Connecticut out of the toss up area and into the Clinton lean category. Aside from that one shift, little else was different and the slim electoral college victory the New York senator won a week ago was preserved for another week.
And in what may be the last McCain margin map (Toot my own horn alert: I know, a sad thought considering how much better it looks now.), little changed. The new poll in Wyoming increased Obama's McCain margin (the darker the color, the greater McCain margin, Clinton = green, Obama = blue) there. Beyond that, Clinton's slight McCain margin lead in Missouri became even smaller, while the opposite was true for Obama in Connecticut (his McCain margin slipped). Both are lighter this week, meaning that the difference between each of the Democrats and McCain is low. In other words, it doesn't matter which Democrat is up against McCain. Connecticut is a good lean to the Democrats while Missouri remains a slight toss up favoring McCain no matter who the Democratic nominee is.

Later this week I'll be back with a look at how much the maps have changed since we started looking at the electoral college scenarios back in March. I'll also be unveiling the new map template that Paul Gurian and I will be using for the general election electoral college breakdown. Also, I should note that I will continue collecting Clinton-McCain data, when and if it surfaces. However, I'll move those into their own post with the soon-to-be defunct McCain margin maps.

***Please see the side bar for links to past electoral college comparisons.***

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