Wednesday, November 2, 2016

The Electoral College Map (11/2/16)



New State Polls (11/2/16)
State
Poll
Date
Margin of Error
Sample
Clinton
Trump
Undecided
Poll Margin
FHQ Margin
Arizona
10/29-10/31
+/-3.6%
700 likely voters
43
47
5
+4
--
Arizona
10/27-11/1
+/-3.5%
769 likely voters
44
49
0
+5
--
Arizona
10/28-11/1
--
1113 likely voters
41
42
6
+1
+1.42
Colorado
10/28-10/31
+/-3.5%
750 likely voters
44
41
3
+3
--
Colorado
10/29-10/31
+/-4.2%
550 likely voters
39
39
9
+/-0
--
Colorado
10/28-11/1
--
972 likely voters
44
37
8
+7
+3.94
Florida
10/25-10/30
--
718 likely voters
48
40
0
+8
--
Florida
10/27-10/31
+/-2.89%
1150 likely voters
45
49
3
+4
--
Florida
10/27-11/1
+/-3.5%
773 likely voters
49
47
0
+2
--
Florida
10/27-11/1
+/-3.9%
626 likely voters
46
45
4
+1
+2.06
Georgia
10/29-10/31
+/-3.8%
650 likely voters
42
51
2
+9
+3.13
Kansas
10/26-10/30
+/-4.0%
624 likely voters
38
49
6
+11
+11.64
Louisiana
10/15-10/21
--
614 likely voters
40
43
7
+3
+12.72
Michigan
9/1-10/31
+/-3.6%
746 likely voters
47
28
8
+19
--
Michigan
11/1
+/-3.29%
887 likely voters
47
44
3
+3
+7.20
Missouri
10/28-10/31
+/-3.8%
650 likely voters
37
52
4
+15
--
Missouri
10/27-11/1
+/-4.4%
508 likely voters
38
47
11
+9
+7.92
Nevada
10/27-11/1
+/-3.5%
790 likely voters
43
49
1
+6
--
Nevada
10/28-11/1
+/-4.0%
600 likely voters
45
45
4
+/-0
--
Nevada
10/28-11/1
--
892 likely voters
45
38
7
+7
+0.77
New Mexico
10/28-11/1
--
567 likely voters
39
31
7
+8
+7.85
North Carolina
10/27-11/1
+/-4.0%
602 likely voters
47
44
5
+3
+1.58
Ohio
10/24-10/26
+/-2.89%
1150 likely voters
44
49
5
+5
--
Ohio
10/27-11/1
+/-4.0%
589 likely voters
41
46
5
+5
+0.25
Oregon
10/25-10/29
+/-4.4%
504 likely voters
41
34
11
+7
+9.43
Pennsylvania
10/27-11/1
+/-3.5%
799 likely voters
48
44
0
+4
--
Pennsylvania
10/27-11/1
+/-4.0%
612 likely voters
48
43
2
+5
--
Pennsylvania
10/29-11/1
+/-4.9%
403 likely voters
48
44
3
+4
--
Pennsylvania
10/31-11/1
+/-3.76%
681 likely voters
45
43
6
+2
+5.38
Virginia
10/23-10/30
+/-3.6%
712 likely voters
44
39
7
+5
--
Virginia
10/26-10/30
+/-4.37%
802 likely voters
41
44
15
+3
+6.37
Wisconsin
10/26-10/31
+/-3.5%
1255 likely voters
46
40
4
+6
+6.42


--
Changes (11/2/16)
6 days left.

There is lots to look at today. 32 polls from 16 states were released, offering quite a bit of data in a number of battleground states. Additionally, there were a few other surveys from several Lean Clinton states where Trump has peel off at least one in addition to sweeping the toss ups to get to 270.

All of that data was noisy, but the underlying picture is one of stability. Yes, part of that is the methodology behind the FHQ graduated weighted averages. But the race, not to mention the map, has been in stasis at 340-198 since the beginning of October. That remains true even with the addition of these polls. Ohio continues to close in on a tie here at FHQ, moving toward Trump. Any more results resembling today's polls of the Buckeye state will likely push it over the partisan line. Of course, Ohio has been on the Watch List for a while now. It was joined again by Nevada which slipped under the Clinton +1 mark on the weight of three new surveys.

The order of states on the Electoral College Spectrum also held mostly steady. Virginia and Wisconsin swapped spots in the Lean Clinton area, and Missouri pushed past South Carolina in the Lean Trump area. Other than that, everything held steady.

Late add:
The University of Denver poll of Colorado pulls the Centennial state off the Watch List. It is now firmly within the Toss Up Clinton area (in addition to being the tipping point state below on the Spectrum).




The Electoral College Spectrum1
MD-102
(13)
RI-4
(162)
PA-20
(263)
TX-38
(161)
TN-11
(61)
HI-4
(17)
NJ-14
(176)
CO-94
(272 | 275)
SC-9
(123)
AR-6
(50)
VT-3
(20)
OR-7
(183)
FL-29
(301 | 266)
MO-10
(114)
ND-3
(44)
MA-11
(31)
NM-5
(188)
NC-15
(316 | 237)
UT-6
(104)
NE-53
(41)
CA-55
(86)
MN-10
(198)
NV-6
(322 | 222)
IN-11
(98)
KY-8
(36)
NY-29
(115)
MI-16
(214)
OH-18
(340 | 216)
MS-6
(87)
AL-9
(28)
IL-20+13
(136)
ME-23
(216)
IA-6
(198)
KS-6
(81)
ID-4
(19)
DE-3
(139)
WI-10
(226)
AZ-11
(192)
SD-3
(75)
WV-5
(15)
WA-12
(151)
VA-13
(239)
GA-16+13
(181)
LA-8
(72)
OK-7
(10)
CT-7
(158)
NH-4
(243)
AK-3
(164)
MT-3
(64)
WY-3
(3)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.

2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Colorado (all Clinton's toss up states plus Colorado), he would have 275 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Clinton's number is on the left and Trumps's is on the right in bold italics.
To keep the figure to 50 cells, Washington, DC and its three electoral votes are included in the beginning total on the Democratic side of the spectrum. The District has historically been the most Democratic state in the Electoral College.

3 Maine and Nebraska allocate electoral college votes to candidates in a more proportional manner. The statewide winner receives the two electoral votes apportioned to the state based on the two US Senate seats each state has. Additionally, the winner within a congressional district is awarded one electoral vote. Given current polling, all five Nebraska electoral votes would be allocated to Trump. In Maine, a split seems more likely. Trump leads in Maine's second congressional district while Clinton is ahead statewide and in the first district. She would receive three of the four Maine electoral votes and Trump the remaining electoral vote. Those congressional district votes are added approximately where they would fall in the Spectrum above.

4 Colorado is the state where Clinton crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. Currently, Colorado is in the Toss Up Clinton category.



NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Clinton and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.


The Watch List1
State
Switch
Alaska
from Lean Trump
to Toss Up Trump
Indiana
from Lean Trump
to Strong Trump
Iowa
from Toss Up Trump
to Toss Up Clinton
Mississippi
from Strong Trump
to Lean Trump
Nevada
from Toss Up Clinton
to Toss Up Trump
New Hampshire
from Lean Clinton
to Toss Up Clinton
Ohio
from Toss Up Clinton
to Toss Up Trump
Oregon
from Lean Clinton
to Strong Clinton
Pennsylvania
from Lean Clinton
to Toss Up Clinton
Utah
from Lean Trump
to Strong Trump
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.


Recent Posts:
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Tuesday, November 1, 2016

The Electoral College Map (11/1/16)



New State Polls (11/1/16)
State
Poll
Date
Margin of Error
Sample
Clinton
Trump
Undecided
Poll Margin
FHQ Margin
Arizona
10/29-10/30
+/-4.12%
550 likely voters
41
45
8
+4
+1.19
California
10/28-10/31
+/-3.6%
747 likely voters
56
35
4
+21
+23.04
Illinois
10/26-10/27
+/-4.0%
600 likely voters
48
37
10
+11
--
Illinois
10/27-10/30
+/-4.3%
500 likely voters
53
41
2
+11
+15.08
Kentucky
10/26-10/28
+/-3.44%
811 likely voters
32
56
5
+24
--
Kentucky
10/25-10/30
+/-4.0%
602 likely voters
37
54
6
+17
+19.71
Maine
10/24-10/26
+/-3.4%
812 likely voters
42
37
9
+5
--
Maine
10/28-10/30
+/-3.5%
750 likely voters
46
42
5
+4
+6.75
Maine CD1
10/24-10/26
+/-4.7%
429 likely voters
45
33
9
+12
--
Maine CD1
10/28-10/30
+/-5.0%
375 likely voters
49
43
4
+6
+15.10
Maine CD2
10/24-10/26
+/-5.0%
382 likely voters
38
41
9
+3
--
Maine CD2
10/28-10/30
+/-5.0%
375 likely voters
44
42
6
+2
+3.06
Michigan
10/31
+/-3.61%
737 likely voters
50
43
3
+7
+6.88
Missouri
10/28-10/31
+/-4.9%
405 likely voters
38
52
4
+14
+7.51
New Hampshire
10/26-10/28
+/-5.1%
408 likely voters
43
45
4
+2
--
New Hampshire
10/26-10/30
+/-3.9%
641 likely voters
46
39
5
+7
+5.79
North Carolina
10/23-10/27
+/-3.7%
710 likely voters
42
41
12
+1
--
North Carolina
10/28-10/31
+/-3.7%
718 likely voters
44
51
3
+7
+1.55
Pennsylvania
10/26-10/30
+/-5.1%
652 likely voters
49
38
7
+11
+5.53
Texas
10/27-10/29
+/-3.13%
980 likely voters
39
52
4
+13
+6.96
Virginia
10/27-10/30
+/-3.5%
1024 likely voters
48
42
1
+6
--
Virginia
10/28-10/30
+/-3.4%
800 likely voters
49
45
2
+4
+6.70


--
Changes (11/1/16)
One more week.

The map holds steady at 340-198. However, the bevy of new polls pushed New Hampshire back onto the Watch List. The Granite state is now within a point of the Lean/Toss Up line on Clinton's side of the Spectrum below. Despite all the poll releases, the movement on the Electoral College Spectrum from a day ago was minimal. Michigan and Maine traded positions in the Lean Clinton area and Kentucky likewise was nudged past Nebraska on the far right end of the Spectrum.

It is notable that all of the blue states above with exception of Pennsylvania saw their FHQ average margins slightly decrease upon the introduction of these new polls to the dataset. Most of that shift is attributable to Trump gains rather than Clinton declines across those states. Clinton continues to have less variable numbers while Trump continues to climb/consolidate Republican support as election day nears.




The Electoral College Spectrum1
MD-102
(13)
RI-4
(162)
PA-20
(263)
TX-38
(161)
TN-11
(61)
HI-4
(17)
NJ-14
(176)
CO-94
(272 | 275)
MO-10
(123)
AR-6
(50)
VT-3
(20)
OR-7
(183)
FL-29
(301 | 266)
SC-9
(113)
ND-3
(44)
MA-11
(31)
NM-5
(188)
NC-15
(316 | 237)
UT-6
(104)
NE-53
(41)
CA-55
(86)
MN-10
(198)
NV-6
(322 | 222)
IN-11
(98)
KY-8
(36)
NY-29
(115)
MI-16
(214)
OH-18
(340 | 216)
MS-6
(87)
AL-9
(28)
IL-20+13
(136)
ME-23
(216)
IA-6
(198)
KS-6
(81)
ID-4
(19)
DE-3
(139)
VA-13
(229)
AZ-11
(192)
SD-3
(75)
WV-5
(15)
WA-12
(151)
WI-10
(239)
GA-16+13
(181)
LA-8
(72)
OK-7
(10)
CT-7
(158)
NH-4
(243)
AK-3
(164)
MT-3
(64)
WY-3
(3)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.

2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Colorado (all Clinton's toss up states plus Colorado), he would have 275 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Clinton's number is on the left and Trumps's is on the right in bold italics.
To keep the figure to 50 cells, Washington, DC and its three electoral votes are included in the beginning total on the Democratic side of the spectrum. The District has historically been the most Democratic state in the Electoral College.

3 Maine and Nebraska allocate electoral college votes to candidates in a more proportional manner. The statewide winner receives the two electoral votes apportioned to the state based on the two US Senate seats each state has. Additionally, the winner within a congressional district is awarded one electoral vote. Given current polling, all five Nebraska electoral votes would be allocated to Trump. In Maine, a split seems more likely. Trump leads in Maine's second congressional district while Clinton is ahead statewide and in the first district. She would receive three of the four Maine electoral votes and Trump the remaining electoral vote. Those congressional district votes are added approximately where they would fall in the Spectrum above.

4 Colorado is the state where Clinton crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. Currently, Colorado is in the Toss Up Clinton category.



NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Clinton and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.


The Watch List1
State
Switch
Alaska
from Lean Trump
to Toss Up Trump
Colorado
from Toss Up Clinton
to Lean Clinton
Indiana
from Lean Trump
to Strong Trump
Iowa
from Toss Up Trump
to Toss Up Clinton
Mississippi
from Strong Trump
to Lean Trump
New Hampshire
from Lean Clinton
to Toss Up Clinton
Ohio
from Toss Up Clinton
to Toss Up Trump
Oregon
from Lean Clinton
to Strong Clinton
Pennsylvania
from Lean Clinton
to Toss Up Clinton
Utah
from Lean Trump
to Strong Trump
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.


Recent Posts:
Happy Halloween, 2016

The Electoral College Map (10/31/16)

The Electoral College Map (10/30/16)

Follow FHQ on TwitterGoogle+ and Facebook or subscribe by Email.