Assuming the Senate made no changes to the bill on the floor, AB 80 has now cleared the legislative hurdle and will head to Governor Jerry Brown (D) for his consideration.
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Thursday, July 14, 2011
California Senate Passes June Presidential Primary Bill
Tory Van Oot at Capitol Watch has reported that the California Senate today passed AB 80 by a 34-3 vote. The bill would eliminate the separate February presidential primary and consolidate it with the primaries for state and local offices on the first Tuesday in June. The cash-strapped Golden state would save almost $100 million from the move.
Second April Presidential Primary Bill Signed in Rhode Island
A great many links came into my inbox yesterday about the presidential primary bill that Rhode Island governor, Lincoln Chaffee (I), had signed into law Tuesday. However, none of the items ever specified which bill had been signed. As such, it was difficult to determine whether the bill in question was the little-discussed presidential primary bill signed on July 1 (S 399) or the unsigned H 5653. Rhode Island's General Assembly web site today provided the answer, indicating it was the latter that Chaffee had signed. As I indicated last week, the second, just-signed bill was superfluous in light of the fact that S 399 had already moved the 2012 presidential primary in Rhode Island. Yet, H 5653 was among the extensive group of bills signed on July 12.
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Message to News Outlets: Cite Your Sources
Here at FHQ, we go to great lengths to cite any and all sources we use in our posts. Please call me vain or a gloryhog, but I prefer to be called an academic that operates under a standard where sources are cited and expects some measure of reciprocity in return. Where FHQ is vulnerable to being accurately called vain, perhaps, is in the fact that we regularly check our site stats. I'm unapologetic about being a stats -- of any kind -- nerd.
Look, I don't want to make too big a deal out of this, but I do want to point out this continuing trend (The AP routinely hangs out at the site and someone at the Daily Rundown was on the site for quite a while a couple of weeks ago researching prior to a rather feeble roundtable discussion of the primary calendar situation. Yes, I complained about that, too.). But someone from CBS was on the FHQ this morning at around 10:45 and lo and behold an article appeared on CBS News an hour and a half later. Now, sure that's only 49 seconds, but Sitemeter tabulates time between clicks, not overall time spent on the site. In other words, it doesn't accurately depict how long said CBS employee was on the site. But you'll notice that Texas (the search term via Google) and Super Tuesday are layered into the discussion in the item. And furthermore, the next stop was the overall 2012 presidential primary calendar.
That said, I take note when IP addresses from various news outlets pop up. This morning it was CBS News (via Sitemeter):
Look, I don't want to make too big a deal out of this, but I do want to point out this continuing trend (The AP routinely hangs out at the site and someone at the Daily Rundown was on the site for quite a while a couple of weeks ago researching prior to a rather feeble roundtable discussion of the primary calendar situation. Yes, I complained about that, too.). But someone from CBS was on the FHQ this morning at around 10:45 and lo and behold an article appeared on CBS News an hour and a half later. Now, sure that's only 49 seconds, but Sitemeter tabulates time between clicks, not overall time spent on the site. In other words, it doesn't accurately depict how long said CBS employee was on the site. But you'll notice that Texas (the search term via Google) and Super Tuesday are layered into the discussion in the item. And furthermore, the next stop was the overall 2012 presidential primary calendar.
I have worked amicably in the past with several other sources that have done their due diligence on this front. I appreciate the efforts that those at Politico, The Boston Globe, The LA Times, The Fix (at The Washington Post) and The National Journal among others have made in not only talking to me in the past but in citing FHQ in their posted items. I only wish there was a uniform standard that was used and applied across all outlets.
I will continue to raise this issue when these incidents occur. I've worked hard to put together a resource that all can and should be able to use if properly attributed.
Thank you.
Josh
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Cuomo Signs Bill Moving New York Presidential Primary to April 24
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New York Governor Andrew Cuomo has signed into law S 5753, moving the Empire state's presidential primary from the first Tuesday in February to the fourth Tuesday in April. New York now joins Pennsylvania, Connecticut and Rhode Island on the last Tuesday in April and will be the biggest, most delegate-rich prize in a northeastern regional that should later include Delaware as well.
New York had traditionally held an April up until the 1996 cycle when Republicans chose delegates in a March primary. The New York legislature moved the presidential primary in the state to February for 2008 but had bipartisan support for the move back to April and into compliance with the national party rules.
This law is set to expire on December 31, 2012 which will leave New York without a presidential primary date for 2016; something that will require legislative action (...probably in 2015). That is all the more interesting considering the speculation surrounding a potential Cuomo run in 2016.
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Tuesday, July 12, 2011
West Virginia Republicans Eye Super Tuesday (March 6) State Convention for Delegate Allocation
West Virginia Republican Party chairman, Mark Stuart, has indicated that the state party is likely to vote later this month on a proposal to repeat their 2008 method of delegate allocation: a Super Tuesday state convention. The process will begin on January 24 with county conventions to select slates of delegates to represent the counties at the state convention in March.1 Chairman Stuart via Joselyn King at The Intelligencer/Wheeling News-Register:
"The first date eligible for state convention is March 6, 'Super Tuesday,' and I would propose that date," Stuart said. "We would be the fifth state in the country to select a nominee. I don't think it will be possible to run for president without coming to West Virginia to discuss the issues."
FHQ doesn't know how much the Republican candidates will pop in to visit West Virginia on such a crowded date with a slew of mostly southern states holding primaries, but that March 6 date may be a better option than gambling on the May 8 state-funded primary and finding it outside of the period in which the Republican nominee is chosen.
The matter of the timing of the state convention will be taken up at the West Virginia Republican State Central Committee meeting on July 22-23.
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1 To be clear, those county convention slates will be unpledged, keeping West Virginia Republicans, as was the case with their Super Tuesday convention in 2008, in compliance with national party rules.
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Follow Up on Missouri Presidential Primary Situation
The reactions are starting to roll in to Missouri Governor Jay Nixon's decision last week to veto an elections bill that included a provision to move the Show Me state's presidential primary back into compliance with national party delegate selection rules. Democrats in the state are largely indifferent with very little on the line in next year's nomination process. Missouri Republicans in the General Assembly, however, are crying foul and over-exaggerating the severity of the situation in the process:
"If I was a candidate and I knew that I could campaign in Iowa and be sure to have delegates and make an impact, or campaign in Missouri and the delegation might not even be seated, where would you choose?" asked Sen. Kevin Engler, R-Farmington, sponsor of the elections bill.
Veteran Republican consultant John Hancock said the veto "makes Missouri irrelevant in the presidential primary process."
Sigh.
Engler has a right to be upset, especially since there was really no direct evidence from the governor that Engler's bill would be vetoed at any point during the bills journey through the legislature. But his line of logic above is deeply flawed. The Iowa to Missouri comparison is just flat out wrong. Ideally, the RNC and DNC would have their way and Iowa's state parties would hold caucuses on February 6. That would be one day before where the Missouri presidential primary is currently scheduled by current Missouri state law. That said, it is naive, as I have tried countless times to point out, to assume that Iowa is going to idly stand by and allow Missouri to go just a day later. And that doesn't even mention the very likely negative reaction from New Hampshire. In other words, Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina will move up and past Missouri if the Show Me state maintains its current position on the calendar.
Now, let's look at political consultant, John Hancock's statement above as it builds on Engler's flawed apples to oranges comparison of Missouri to Iowa.
Irrelevant? Not likely.
Less relevant? Perhaps.
Let's follow the trail on this one and assume that the Missouri primary situation cannot be resolved in either a special session or by a veto override from the legislature in September. That means that Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina move up to at least January. It also likely means that Florida will stick with at least the January 31 date on which their presidential primary was originally scheduled before the Presidential Preference Primary Date Selection Committee was formed. Missouri on February 7 would also likely affect the plans of Michigan Republicans as well, who would, it stands to reason, more seriously consider a January date for their primary or caucus as a result as well.1
Take a step back and look at that calendar now.
January2
Iowa
New Hampshire
Nevada
South Carolina
Florida
Michigan
Georgia3
February
7th Missouri
21st Wisconsin4
28th Arizona
Is Missouri irrelevant in that speculative calendar alignment? Absolutely not. Not unless the nomination has been wrapped up in those January states. In other words, it could happen, but is not likely to. Now, FHQ is tempted to make the argument that Missouri would be less relevant in that scenario, but looking at the above calendar has me very strongly reconsidering that position. Even with a half delegation penalty, Missouri would very likely hold a fairly significant amount of sway over the Republican nomination race if it was still undecided heading into February. First of all, Missouri would be the only game in town on February 7 as opposed to having to share March 6 with a growing number of states. Secondly, even with the penalties, candidates are not going to be dissuaded from paying Missouri any attention. No, if anything, if the Republican nomination is still active and close, it will draw candidates to the state to divide up any delegates from the state.
That's the lesson of the 2008 Democratic nomination battle: Candidates fight for what delegates they can get (where they are most likely to get them) and move on to the next battle. Missouri would be very attractive to a wide swath of Republican candidates and would likely see a strong candidate presence there; not a lesser one.
In that light, Missouri General Assembly Republicans should probably be thankful for the veto. And considering that one version of this bill tethered the Show Me state primary to New Hampshire's (scheduling it one week after the Granite state primary, whenever it was), they probably are. But they have to publicly wring their hands over the veto as a means of not risking further sanction from the RNC (The move, or non-move, would have huge impact on the overall calendar.). The presidential primary may come up at a special session if one is called, but FHQ is skeptical of how hard Republicans will work for a resolution to this or for those four House Democrats' votes necessary to override Govenor Nixon's veto.
Only time will tell, and in the meantime, this development only adds to the uncertainty of the calendar.
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1 Of course depending on the decisions in Florida and Michigan, the first four states could be pushed into very early January or even December.
2 I won't include dates here because it would be total guesswork, but this would be the order of contests with maybe Florida and Michigan holding primaries on the same date.
3 Georgia Secretary of State Brian Kemp has indicated that the Peach state could move to coincide primaries with Florida. Most of the discussion was in the context of Florida holding a late February contest just outside of the national parties window for non-exempt states to hold contests.
4 FHQ's expectation is that this one will get moved in the late summer or early fall. It hasn't yet, though there was bipartisan support for the move. The need to get the FY2012 budget done in the Badger state superseded the need to move the presidential primary.
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Monday, July 11, 2011
Governor Malloy's Signature Moves Connecticut Presidential Primary to April 24
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On Friday, July 8, Connecticut Governor Dannel Malloy (D) signed HB 6532 into law. The legislation moves back the Nutmeg state's presidential primary from the first Tuesday in February to the fourth Tuesday in April. Connecticut now officially joins Pennsylvania and Rhode Island on that April 24 date. Legislation has passed the legislatures in both Delaware and New York to bring those states' primaries in line with those in Connecticut, Pennsylvania and Rhode Island. This five state regional primary (along with several other Democratic caucus states plus primaries in Maryland and Washington DC) makes the month of April on the 2012 presidential primary calendar much more crowded than it was in 2008.
Pennsylvania's primary was the only contest scheduled in April during the last presidential election cycle.
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Friday, July 8, 2011
Nixon Vetoes Missouri Presidential Primary Bill, Primary Now Seemingly Non-Compliant
On Friday, July 8, Governor Jay Nixon (D) vetoed SB 282. The bill would have moved the Missouri presidential primary from the first Tuesday after the first Monday in February to the first Tuesday after the first Monday in March. Nixon agreed with that provision in the law but did not approve of the additional sections of the legislation. Among the issues the governor took with the bill was the fact that the bill stripped the governor of the power to make appointments to fill vacancies to US Senate and other statewide offices. This was something that was raised by a state representative back in early June and proved to be part of the ultimate downfall of the bill.
More problematic is the position in which this not only leaves Missouri, relative to the national parties' delegate selection rules, but what this will do to the overall presidential primary calendar. If Missouri is, indeed, locked into February 7 next year, it significantly affects what will happen in Arizona, Florida, Georgia and Michigan (states looking to break in on the early presidential primary process) on the one hand, but obviously Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina as well. The only -- and it seems to be increasingly likely -- recourse is a special session where the presidential primary issue could be raised.
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Rhode Island Presidential Primary to April 24
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Rhode Island Governor Lincoln Chaffee (I) on Friday, July 1, signed SB 399 into law. The bill moves the Ocean state's presidential primary from the first Tuesday in March to the fourth Tuesday in April, bringing the state in line with the primary in Pennsylvania. Legislation to move presidential primaries to the same date has been passed and is awaiting gubernatorial approval in Connecticut, Delaware and New York. All five states, blue states in 2008 and under nearly unanimous Democratic control, should all benefit from the bonus delegates associated with later (post-March) primaries and additional bonuses based on the coordination of primaries.
The companion House bill (HB 5653) has been transmitted to Governor Chaffee as well, but seems superfluous at this point with SB 399 having now moved the primary back.
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Thursday, July 7, 2011
Ohio Presidential Primary to May 8
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On Tuesday, July 5, Governor John Kasich (R) signed, among a larger group of bills, HB 194 into law. The law ushers in a host of Republican-led changes to Ohio elections law but also shifts the Buckeye state's presidential primary from the first Tuesday after the first Monday in March to the first Tuesday after the first Monday in May. The two month delay will align the Ohio primary with primaries in North Carolina and neighboring West Virginia and Indiana.
For Ohio Democrats, the concurrent primary with West Virginia and Indiana primaries will likely mean bonus delegates for all three states, and for Ohio Republicans the move will allow the party to maintain its winner-take-all delegate allocation method.
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