Friday, July 1, 2011

The 2012 Presidential Primary Calendar (7/1/11)

Louisiana's shift means another update to the calendar.

[Click to Enlarge]


Reading the Map:

As was the case with the maps from past cycles, the earlier a contest is scheduled in 2012, the darker the color in which the state is shaded. Iowa, for instance, is a much deeper shade of blue in January than South Dakota is in June. There are, however, some differences between the earlier maps and the one that appears above.

  1. Several caucus states have yet to select a date for the first step of their delegate selection processes in 2012. Until a decision is made by state parties in those states, they will appear in gray on the map.
  2. The states where legislation to move the presidential primary is active are two-toned. One color indicates the timing of the primary according to the current law whereas the second color is meant to highlight the most likely month to which the primary could be moved. [With the exception of North Carolina, the proposed movement is backward.]
  3. Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina are shaded on the map according to the latest possible date these states would have if Florida opts not to move their primary into compliance with the national party rules. Iowa Republicans and Nevada Republicans and Democrats have decided to accept the party-designated dates, but FHQ operates under the assumption that both will move to a point ahead of the earliest exempt state should one or more move or maintain a February or earlier date.
  4. States that are bisected vertically are states where the state parties have different dates for their caucuses and/or primaries. The left hand section is shaded to reflect the state Democratic Party's scheduling while the right is for the state Republican Party's decision on the timing of its delegate selection event.


Reading the Calendar:

  1. Caucus states are italicized while primary states are not. Several caucus states are missing from the list because they have not formalized the date on which their contests will be held in 2012. Colorado appears because the caucuses dates there are set by the state, whereas a state like Alaska has caucuses run by the state parties and as such do not have their dates codified in state law.
  2. States that have changed dates appear twice (or more) on the calendar; once by the old date and once by the new date. The old date will be struck through while the new date will be color-coded with the amount of movement (in days) in parentheses. States in green are states that have moved to earlier dates on the calendar and states in red are those that have moved to later dates. Arkansas, for example, has moved its 2012 primary and moved it back 104 days from its 2008 position.
  3. The date of any primary or caucus moves that have taken place -- whether through gubernatorial signature or state party move -- also appear in parentheses following the state's/party's new entry on the calendar.
  4. States with active legislation have links to those bills included with their entries on the calendar. If there are multiple bills they are divided by chamber and/or numbered accordingly.
  5. Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina appear twice. The earlier entry corresponds with the latest possible date these states would have if Florida opts not to move their primary into compliance with the national party rules. The second, later entry for each of the non-exempt states reflects the position the national parties would prefer the earliest states to hold their delegate selection events.


2012 Presidential Primary Calendar


December 2011

Monday, December 5:

Iowa caucuses1


Tuesday, December 13:

New Hampshire1


Saturday, December 17:

Nevada caucuses1

South Carolina1


Florida (bills: House 1, 2/Senate) (moved to no date: 5/19/11)


February 2012

Monday, February 6:

Iowa caucuses (moved: 2/8/11) (based on national party rules)


Tuesday, February 7 (Super Tuesday):

Alabama

Arkansas

California (bills: Assembly)

Connecticut (bills: House)

Delaware (bills: Senate)

Georgia (bills: House) (moved to no date: 5/13/11)

Illinois

Minnesota caucuses (+28) (bills: House/Senate) (moved: 3/1/11)

Missouri (bills: House 1, 2, 3/Senate)

Montana Republican caucuses

New Jersey (bills: Assembly 1, 2/Senate 1, 2)

New York (bills: Assembly/Senate)

Oklahoma

Tennessee

Utah


Saturday, February 11:

Louisiana


Tuesday, February 14:

Maryland

New Hampshire (based on national party rules)

Virginia

Washington, DC


Saturday, February 18:

Nevada Republican caucuses (-28) (moved: 12/16/10) (based on national party rules)

Nevada Democratic caucuses2 (-28) (moved: 2/24/11) (based on national party rules)


Tuesday, February 21:

Hawaii Republican caucuses (+88) (moved: 5/16/09)

Wisconsin (bills: Assembly, Senate)


Tuesday, February 28:

Arizona3

Michigan4 (bills: House)

South Carolina (based on national party rules)


March 2012

Tuesday, March 6:

Colorado caucuses (+14) (bills: House) (moved: 5/27/11)

Massachusetts4 (bills: House)

Ohio (bills: House)

Oklahoma (-28) (bills: House 1, 2, 3/Senate 1, 2) (moved: 5/3/11)

Rhode Island (bills: House/Senate)

Tennessee (-28) (bills: House 1, 2, 3/Senate 1, 2, 3) (moved: 5/9/11)

Texas (bills: House/Senate)

Vermont

Virginia (-21) (bills: House 1, 2/Senate) (moved: 3/25/11)


Sunday, March 11:

Maine Democratic caucuses (-28) (moved: 3/27/11)


Tuesday, March 13:

Alabama (-35) (bills: House 1, 2) (moved: 6/9/11)

Hawaii Republican caucuses (+67 and -21) (moved: 5/14/11)

Mississippi

Utah Democratic caucuses (-35) (moved: 3/25/11)


Tuesday, March 20:

Colorado caucuses

Illinois (-42) (bills: Senate) (moved: 3/17/10)


Saturday, March 24:

Louisiana (-42) (bills: House) (moved: 6/29/11)


April 2012

Tuesday, April 3:

Kansas (bills: House 1, 2/Senate -- cancel primary) (canceled: 5/25/11)

Maryland (-49) (bills: House/Senate 1, 2) (moved: 5/10/11)

Washington, DC (-49) (bills: Council) (moved: 4/27/11)


Saturday, April 7:

Hawaii Democratic caucuses (-46) (moved: 3/18/11)

Wyoming Democratic caucuses (-28) (moved: 3/16/11)


Saturday, April 14:

Idaho Democratic caucuses (-67) (moved: 5/1/11)

Kansas Democratic caucuses (-67) (moved: 5/24/11)

Nebraska Democratic caucuses (-63) (moved: 3/5/11)


Sunday, April 15:

Alaska Democratic caucuses (-68) (moved: 4/4/11)

Washington Democratic caucuses (-64) (moved: 4/30/11)


Tuesday, April 24:

Pennsylvania


May 2012

Saturday, May 5:

Michigan Democratic caucuses (-67) (moved: 4/13/11)


Tuesday, May 8:

Indiana

North Carolina (bills: Senate)

West Virginia


Tuesday, May 15:

Idaho (+7) (bills: House) (moved: 2/23/11)

Nebraska

Oregon (bills: House)


Tuesday, May 22:

Arkansas (-105) (bills: House) (moved: 2/4/09)

Idaho

Kentucky (bills: House) (died: legislature adjourned)

Washington (bills: House 1, 2/Senate -- cancel primary) (canceled: 5/12/11)


June 2012

Tuesday, June 5:

Montana (GOP -119) (moved: 6/18/10)

New Mexico5 (bills: Senate) (died: legislature adjourned)

North Dakota Democratic caucuses (-119) (moved: 4/21/11)

South Dakota


Tuesday, June 26:

Utah (Republicans only) (-140) (moved: 6/5/11)


1 New Hampshire law calls for the Granite state to hold a primary on the second Tuesday of March or seven days prior to any other similar election, whichever is earlier. Florida is first now, so New Hampshire would be a week earlier at the latest. Traditionally, Iowa has gone on the Monday a week prior to New Hampshire. For the time being we'll wedge South Carolina in on the Saturday between New Hampshire and Florida, but these are just guesses at the moment. Any rogue states could cause a shift.

2 The Nevada Democratic caucuses date is based on both DNC rules and the state party's draft delegate selection plan as of February 24, 2011.

3 In Arizona the governor can use his or her proclamation powers to move the state's primary to a date on which the event would have an impact on the nomination. In 2004 and 2008 the primary was moved to the first Tuesday in February.
4 Massachusetts and Michigan are the only states that passed a frontloading bill prior to 2008 that was not permanent. The Bay state reverts to its first Tuesday in March date in 2012 while Michigan will fall back to the fourth Tuesday in February.
5 The law in New Mexico allows the parties to decide when to hold their nominating contests. The Democrats have gone in early February in the last two cycles, but the GOP has held steady in June. They have the option of moving however.


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More from Secretary Kemp on Coupling Georgia's Presidential Primary with Florida's

Joshua Stewart of Georgia Public Broadcast got a few additional comments out of Georgia Secretary of State Brian Kemp on the issue of the timing of the Peach state's presidential primary next year:

“You sometimes feel like the president is picked in Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina and that’s maybe not a general consensus of what the real electorate throughout the country may be thinking,” Kemp said.
...and...

“If there was a way we could have our date the same as theirs, I think it would be attractive for candidates to be able to come and campaign in both these states because you could hit both states in one day [and] we have media markets that overlap,” Kemp said. “There’s just a lot of good synergy.”
The first statement is a throw-away. I'll reiterate what I've said before on this point: the national parties will be the ones to determine whether Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina and winnowing the fields "properly" or creating a "general consensus" of which the parties are not supportive. That hasn't happened yet.

Now, the second point is more useful. It is more evidence that Kemp is open to the idea of coupling the Georgia primary with the contest in Florida. The reporting on this has attempted to link the Georgia situation with the recent stories about a brokered March 1 (or 2 or 3) date for the Florida primary. That, I think, doesn't accurately capture the situation. As I've tried to argue, Florida wants the fifth position behind Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina, and if other states threaten that, Florida is likely not going to be willing to slip into an early, but only slightly non-compliant March position. If Michigan jumps to January, for instance, Florida isn't necessarily going to sit idly by and accept an early March position while the early four states bump their own contests up.

To be clear, Kemp made his initial comments to Jim Galloway at the AJC in the context of the possibility of a March Florida primary, but that does not mean that Georgia won't go earlier than that. Recall also, that even if Florida has a problem with Georgia holding a primary concurrently with the Sunshine state primary, it won't matter. Florida law requires a decision from the Presidential Preference Primary Date Selection Committee by October 1 and Secretary Kemp has an additional two months beyond that (December 1) to make his decision regarding the Georgia primary.


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Thursday, June 30, 2011

Wyoming GOP Split on 2012 Caucuses Date

FHQ has devoted a fair amount of space to the movement of presidential primaries and Democratic caucuses ahead of the 2012 presidential nomination race, but for the most part, the grapevine has been quiet concerning Republican caucuses. Very little information has come out of the state Republican Parties in Alaska, Kansas, Maine, North Dakota, Washington and Wyoming about the timing of their caucus meetings next year. Sure, the political science literature will tell us that primaries are more important than caucuses, but these states represent question marks on the landscape of the primary calendar. All six states held opening caucus meetings in 2008 at points that would not be compliant under the 2012 delegate selection rules if used again. For the record, that is not usually a good benchmark for determining when caucuses will be held from cycle to cycle. Indeed, caucus dates are so volatile, that past dates are little help at all. In other words, though we haven't heard much from these state parties regarding their caucus dates, the are question marks and not threats to jump early on the calendar.

Still, if we're trying to figure out the layout of the overall calendar, those dates are information FHQ is interested in. And while I do not foresee most of these states attempting to "stampede" to the front, there is some evidence that at least one on the list might try. Wyoming Republicans, who violated RNC rules in 2008 by holding January 5 caucus meetings, are signaling that they may be willing to repeat the rules-breaking in 2012. But the minutes from the Wyoming Republican State Central Committee meeting in April indicate a split within the group. Here's the description from the Wyoming Republican Party (emphasis is FHQ's):
Fremont County Committeeman, John Birbari, stated that he would like to see our 2012 caucuses moved once again to an earlier date. John Birbari made the motion to move the Presidential caucus to be held before the second Tuesday in March, 2012, Brian Scott Gamroth, seconded the motion. During discussion, Big Horn County Committeeman, Bernie DuMontier, said he enjoyed having the caucus early because he was able to speak to 5 Presidential Candidates. Natrona County Chairman, Miles Dahlby, stated he does not want it moved, due to penalties from the RNC. Jim Bunch agreed. Washakie County Committeewoman, Dru Bower-Moore, and National Committeewoman, Jan Larimer, expressed that they are against an early caucus date. Goshen County Chairman, Doug Chamberlain, made a motion to table the discussion until and the summer meeting. Johnson County Committeeman. Bill Novotny made the second to table the motion until the summer meeting. The motion was tabled until a later date.A Committee with Doug Chamberlain, Greg Schaefer, Brian Scott Gamroth, Bernie DuMontier, David Horning, Kevin Voyles, Diana Vaughn, Dru Bower-Moore and Jan Larimer was formed to work on the issue.
That tells us a few things. First of all, the caucuses are apparently set for the second Tuesday in March, though, there is nothing on the Wyoming Republican Party site to document that other than the reference above. Secondly, that is a date on which the Alabama and Mississippi primaries are scheduled as well as the Hawaii Republican caucuses. Finally, and most importantly, there is some support on the Wyoming Republican State Central Committee to move the caucuses to an earlier date as in 2008. However, there is opposition to that idea on the committee including from the state's Republican National Committeewoman, Jan Larimer.

There is, then, some support for moving up in Wyoming, and the opposition is based on the RNC rules. In any event, the discussion was table and will be taken up at the committee's summer meeting. That meeting is set to take place in Caspar on August 26-27.

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Other notes:

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Louisiana Presidential Primary to March 24

Bill Barrow of the New Orleans Times-Picayune is reporting that Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal (R) on WednesdayTuesday, June 2928, signed into law a bill moving the Pelican state presidential primary from February to March. HB 509 passed its last legislative test passing the state Senate on June 20. The bill shifts the Louisiana presidential primary from the second or third Saturday in February to the third Saturday after the first Tuesday in March.

[Click to Enlarge]

The new date will find Louisiana in its own niche between the Illinois primary on March 20 and the Maryland and Washington, DC primaries on April 3.


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Wednesday, June 29, 2011

Rhode Island Senate Passes Companion April Presidential Primary Bill from the House

In what will likely (hopefully!?!) the last presidential primary bill passed on a very busy legislative day, Rhode Island brought up the rear. The state Senate in the Ocean state, a night after having passed the House-amended version of its own primary bill (SB 399), passed HB 5653. Both bills would move the Rhode Island presidential primary from the first Tuesday in March to the fourth Tuesday in April to coincide with primaries in Connecticut, Delaware, New York and Pennsylvania.

On a 36-1 vote on the eve of the adjourning, the Rhode Island General Assembly sends to Governor Lincoln Chaffee (I) the second of two presidential primary bills.


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Delaware House Makes Quick Work of April Presidential Primary Bill

The Delaware House spared no time in passing SB 89 after the bill emerged from committee earlier this afternoon. By a unanimous vote -- 41-0 -- on the day before the legislature is set to adjourn, the House passed and sent off to Governor Jack Markell (D) the bill that would move the First state's presidential primary back nearly three months (from the first Tuesday in February to the fourth Tuesday in April).

Should Governor Markell sign the legislation, Delaware's primary would coincide with primaries in Connecticut, New York, Pennsylvania and Rhode Island.


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Ohio House Concurs with Elections/Presidential Primary Bill, Passes on to Governor

Ann Sanner of the Associated Press is reporting that the Ohio state House has voted to concur with the Senate changes to HB 194. The elections legislation would shift the presidential primary in the Buckeye state from the first Tuesday after the first Monday in March to the first Tuesday after the first Monday in May. The Ohio Senate last week passed the bill with only minor changes after it had passed its own elections bill (that among other things did not include the provision moving the presidential primary). That Senate bill stalled in the House as the the Senate considered and passed the House version. Last week's Senate changes forced today's vote -- 59-40 in favor -- in the House.

HB 194 now moves on to Governor John Kasish (R) for his signature or veto. Assuming a signature, the Ohio presidential primary would coincide with primaries in neighboring Indiana and West Virginia, setting up a subregional primary just a week after the proposed northeast/mid-Atlantic primary (Connecticut, Delaware, New York, Pennsylvania and Rhode Island).


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New Jersey Senate Unanimously Passes Bill Eliminating Separate Presidential Primary

The New Jersey state Senate this afternoon substituted A 3777 for the identical S 2883 and then unanimously passed -- by a vote of 39-0 -- the bill to eliminate the separate presidential primary. The impact of this legislation will essentially be to move the New Jersey presidential primary from the first Tuesday in February to the first Tuesday in June, concurrent with the primaries for statewide and local offices.

This vote was the last legislative hurdle for the bill and it will now head to Governor Chris Christie (R) for his consideration. Christie has indicated some support for the idea in the past.


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Delaware House Committee Advances April Presidential Primary Legislation

The Delaware state House Administration Committee this afternoon unanimously passed -- by a vote of 5-0 -- SB 89, the bill that would move the First state's presidential primary from the first Tuesday in February to the fourth Tuesday in April. As was stated earlier today in FHQ's post updating the situation in Rhode Island, that would place Delaware on a date shared by four other neighboring states (Connecticut, New York, Pennsylvania and Rhode Island), forming a small northeastern/mid-Atlantic regional primary.

The bill now heads to the House floor for consideration there by the full lower chamber.


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Idaho Republicans Considering Super Tuesday Caucuses

Dan Popkey of the Idaho Statesman is reporting today that the Idaho Republican Party is discussing the possibility of abandoning the mid-May presidential primary for earlier caucuses. The party's State Central Committee will take up the caucus proposal passed by a subcommittee recently during its July 16 meeting.

Now, as the article states, Idaho Democrats have traditionally used a caucus in lieu of the state funded primary. State Democrats have already opted to once again hold caucuses, selecting an April 14 date. Republicans, too, now seem willing to give up that state funding by funding their own delegate selection event at a time on the presidential primary calendar that may provide the state with some measure of influence over the identity of the Republican nominee. That would leave a meaningless beauty contest Idaho primary in May at the presidential level. Idaho is a state that holds concurrent presidential and state/local primaries, and the latter contests would make the May primary partially meaningful.

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One footnote that I would add to all of this is that this is an interesting development in light of Monday's late night news out of Utah. Recall that I made the argument yesterday that the Romney campaign would want a Utah primary on March 6, coupled with contests in Colorado and later Hawaii (March 13) to counteract the former Massachusetts governor's perceived weakness in the South. A Colorado/Idaho/Utah series of wins would partially counter losses in the host of southern states holding primaries during the first two weeks of March.

Theoretically, this sounds good. Public Policy Polling's Tom Jensen recently tweeted that Romney is the "key to the Mountain West for GOP" in the general election. Further, he adds, "It really might be fair to say GOP nominating anyone other than Romney locks down 2008 pick ups of CO/NM/NV for Obama, puts AZ on the board." I should emphasize that this is in relation to the general election and not the primaries, so it isn't the same thing. However, Mitt Romney won nominating contests in all three (Colorado, Idaho and Utah) in 2008. Caucuses in Colorado and Idaho may be a different animal in 2012, though. They would be potentially more difficult to control. However, if all the other candidates are focused on the southern contests, Romney may be able to focus his resources on organizing in those three western contests with only moderate (or even token) expenditures in the South.

And yeah, I'm willing to bet that this caucus idea came up at least once during the fundraiser Romney held -- and mentioned in the Statesman article -- in Boise last week. Call it a hunch.


Posted by Josh Putnam at 12:30 PM 2 comments
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