North Carolina Senate Committee Meeting Today to Discuss Bill Moving Presidential Primary to March

This morning the North Carolina Senate Judiciary (I) Committee is holding a meeting, and on the docket is the bill to shift the Tarheel state's presidential primary up to the first Tuesday in March. S 440 would create a separate presidential primary election, splitting it from the primaries for state and local offices on the first Tuesday after the first Monday in May. The added costs associated with that new election will work against this bill passing in a, like many others, cash-strapped state. That said, this same bill has been proposed repeatedly over the last few sessions under Democratic control to no avail. Now that the Republican-sponsored bill faces a Republican-controlled General Assembly, the story may be slightly different.

A move to March 6 would put North Carolina on the same date as neighbors, Tennessee and Virginia, and a host of other southern/border states that have moved or are close to moving (Alabama, Missouri and Oklahoma).

No vote is expected on the bill today.

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Texas House Committee Report with April Presidential Primary Provision is Posted

After having passed the House Defense and Veterans' Affairs Committee over a week ago, the House Committee Report for SB 100 has now been filed with the committee coordinator and distributed/posted on the Texas legislative website. That version, which includes a new provision -- different from what the state Senate passed -- to move the Lone Star state's presidential primary (and those for other statewide offices as well) back to the first Tuesday in April, now moves to the floor for consideration before the full state House.

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Hawaii GOP Moves Caucuses to March 13

On Saturday, May 14, Hawaii Republicans at their 2011 state convention adopted a series of rules changes. One of those changes was to shift the previously-moved (to February from May) caucuses back to the second Tuesday in March. The primary motivation for the move was to bring the state party's delegate selection process into compliance with the national party rule prohibiting primaries and caucuses -- other than Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina -- from being held earlier than the first Tuesday in March. As was mentioned over the weekend prior to the convention adopting the rules change, this date putsHawaii Republicans on the same day as Mississippi and Utah Democrats and a week after the earliest allowed calendar position (where most Republican-controlled states are clustering).

[See more on the move at Hawaii Free Press.]

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Hawaii Democrats indicated earlier in April in the draft of their 2012 delegate selection plan that they plan to hold caucuses on April 7.

See the update 2012 Presidential Primary Calendar here.

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The 2012 Candidates: Huck's out & Other Housekeeping

Let's belatedly update this list now that there have been a couple of noteworthy noes (Haley Barbour and Mike Huckabee), and just this past week a couple of formal yeses (Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul). Bad for southern governors, good for southern congressmen, apparently. Plus, Gary Johnson has jumped in since the last update as well.

With Huckabee out, Iowa has gotten more interesting and the race to be the not-Romney has lost another big name.

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Democrats:

Barack Obama (announced: 4/4/11)

Republicans:

Michelle Bachmann

Haley Barbour (4/25/11)

John Bolton

Jeb Bush¹

Herman Cain (exploratory: 1/12/11)

Chris Christie¹

Mitch Daniels

Jim DeMint (3/24/11)

Newt Gingrich (exploratory: 3/4/11) (candidacy: 5/11/11)

Rudy Giuliani

Mike Huckabee (5/14/11)

Jon Huntsman

Bobby Jindal¹

Gary Johnson (candidacy: 4/21/11)

Roy Moore (exploratory: 4/18/11)

Sarah Palin

George Pataki (4/20/11)

Ron Paul (exploratory: 4/14/11) (candidacy: 5/13/11)

Tim Pawlenty (exploratory: 3/21/11)

Mike Pence (1/27/11)

Rick Perry¹

Buddy Roemer (exploratory: 3/3/11)

Mitt Romney (exploratory: 4/11/11)

Rick Santorum (exploratory 4/13/11)

John Thune (2/22/11)

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¹ Christie and Bush (and to a lesser degree Perry and Jindal) continue to be listed as "undecided", despite their rather constant stream of noes, simply because they continue to be asked. Admittedly time is running out and the noes will become much more definitive relatively soon.

Thanks to Mystery Politico for the Pataki news. FHQ missed it entirely.

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Moving Caucuses to March on the Rules Changes Agenda at Hawaii GOP Convention

The Republican Party of Hawaii is holding its annual state convention this weekend and on the agenda is a rules change regarding the selection of delegates to the Republican National Convention in Tampa next year. Previously, the party had opted to abandon the May state convention as the primary means of allocating delegates in favor of earlier precinct caucuses. When that decision was made back in 2009, the party had chosen the third Tuesday in February -- to coincide with Hawaii Democrats' 2008 caucus date -- for those caucuses. In the time since, however, the Republican delegate selection rules for 2012 have made that date a violation, and now the state party's convention agenda has a move to March as part of the proceedings.

According to the second paragraph of Part D (Delegates to the National Republican Convention), Section 214 (Election):

Hawaii Republican caucuses shall be held on the second Tuesday in March of each Presidential Election Year.

Currently, only Mississippi and Utah's Democratic caucuses are scheduled on the date a week after the proposed Super Tuesday (earliest possible date to hold contests according to the national party rules, and when the largest group of states typically clusters) on March 6.

The Hawaii Republican Party becomes the first party in a traditional Republican caucus state to make any overt move toward scheduling its 2012 delegate selection event. Republican state parties are not faced with the same deadline to submit delegate selection plan drafts to the national party as is the case on the Democratic side. That May 2 deadline is what has provided FHQ with the bulk of the Democratic caucus dates for 2012. Absent that deadline on the Republican side, state parties have been slower to act. But Hawaii has likely become the first to act.

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A Follow Up on the April Presidential Primary in Texas: Signals from the Republican Party of Texas

Though news of the Texas House Defense and Veterans' Affairs Committee having unanimously passed SB 100 has been out for over a week, little in the way of confirmation that that committee version included a provision for an April presidential primary has emerged. Yes, some news outlets reported it, yet there was no new version -- one that includes the April primary amendment -- posted on the Texas legislature website. Unfortunately, that is still the case, but now there is a slightly more official source confirming the April primary provision in the bill. The Republican Party of Texas has confirmed it by communicating the change to its members. From the RPT press release:

As has been mentioned in the last two Chairman's Updates for March and April, the RPT has been closely following the progress of SB 100, specifically as it applies to the date of the Texas Primary Election. To give some background - the federal MOVE Act has been crafted to give our overseas military a greater amount of time to receive and cast their vote by mail. For our state to comply with the MOVE Act, there are changes mandated to the election calendar that lengthen the period of time between filing for office and election day. In the case of Texas, our best solution is to move the primary date back into April with a runoff date in June. In addition to changes mandated by the MOVE Act, the Republican National Committee has passed rules which penalize states which hold their primary elections before April and do not apportion their delegates in direct proportion to the popular vote. Texas is such a state. Thus, should Texas keep its primary date on the first Tuesday in March, those rules would potentially take away half of the Texas delegation strength to the Republican National Convention in 2012.

As FHQ has previously noted, the RPT is very wary of the penalties associated with the mandates in both the MOVE act and the RNC delegate selection rules. The party cannot change its winner-take-all method of delegate allocation outside of a state convention and the party values following the rules over taking the sanctions in order to preserve an earlier and more influential primary date.

Texas is the rare exception in this Republican-only nomination cycle of a Republican-controlled state moving back beyond March 6. A real dichotomy has emerged between Republican and Democratic-controlled states in terms of their primary movement. Forced to change primary dates in order to comply with the timing aspect of the national parties' delegate selection rules, Democratic-controlled states -- with nothing on the line -- have opted to shift back to April or later dates in order to maximize their presence at the Democratic Convention in Charlotte (see Maryland, DC, and the Democratic caucus states). Republican-controlled states, on the other hand, have chosen to move back, but to move back only as far as the earliest date that the parties will allow (see Oklahoma, Tennessee). States where the Republicans control some part of the state government, and thus have some form of veto power have also prevented moves back beyond March 6 (see Virginia and most likely Missouri and Alabama). New Jersey and Texas are the exceptions thus far. Texas, owing to the rules, has to move back or change other, more complicated matters like the resign-to-run rule as well as the filing deadlines attendant to that (Georgia may fit that category as well.). New Jersey, meanwhile, looks destined to move simply because Governor Christie (R) is seemingly in agreement with the Democratic-controlled legislature on consolidating the presidential primary with the primaries for state and local offices in June.

As state legislatures finish up their business for 2011 over the next few months, that will be the pattern to watch. There is an additional group to add to the mix as well: rogue states. Florida, Michigan and Arizona are increasingly likely to defy the RNC rules in timing their delegate selection events. And no, this group does not include states like New York, Delaware and Wisconsin, which have done nothing as of yet to change the dates of their respective delegate selection events.

A hat tip to Tony Roza at The Green Papers for passing the news of the RPT's press release on to FHQ.

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Michigan GOP to Decide in August on Timing of 2012 Primary/Caucus

From Kathy Barks Hoffman at the AP:

Michigan Republicans will decide in mid-August how they'll pick their presidential favorite, and may choose to join Florida in holding the earliest 2012 primaries.

The Associated Press on Friday confirmed the contents of a memo sent by state GOP Chairman Robert "Bobby" Schostak that says the Michigan Republican State Committee will vote at its Aug. 13 meeting on what kind of contest to hold and when.

The committee meets Saturday to discuss its options.

One possibility is a first-in-the-nation Jan. 31 primary held with Florida ahead of traditional early states, ignoring a schedule set by the Republican and Democratic national committees. The 2012 nominating process isn't supposed to start until next February, when Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada would hold primaries and caucuses. Other states couldn't hold a primary or caucus before March 6 without being penalized.

Good luck with that first in the nation thing. Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada will go before any other state no matter how early any state outside of that quartet holds a contest. That isn't up for debate.

That said, this is noteworthy. Given the effort in Michigan in 2007 to move the Wolverine state's 2008 presidential primary to a non-compliant date and the fact that a bill has already been introduced in the Michigan House to move the 2012 presidential primary to the last week in January, Michigan is always good for mixing it up. But a few notes should be made here. First of all the caucus option is still apparently on the table. That's the "how" of the how and when speculation from the AP. That makes sense.

What doesn't is that the state party appears to be superseding the Michigan legislature in terms the primary option. Yes, the party has the final say on how its delegates are allocated, but that say is typically either "the timing of the state-funded primary is fine, we'll go with that" or "the primary is too early/late, we'll have to hold a caucus". That is not the case here. Of course, the Michigan GOP has the advantage of a Republican-controlled state legislature (and a Republican governor), so if the party opts for the primary, the state legislature -- one with a year-round session -- can and probably will accommodate them. After all, it was August 2007 when the Michigan-in-January discussion began ahead of the 2008 presidential primary cycle.

What is interesting here is the idea of Michigan and Florida going on the same date. Will Florida be warm to that idea? There is no telling. Yet, this likely sets off a game of brinksmanship if Florida wants a spot to itself. The proposed Presidential Preference Primary Date Selection Committee in Florida has until October 1 to choose a primary date (assuming HB 1355 is signed into law, creating the committee), and if the Michigan GOP signals the desire for an earlier date in August, it will likely delay the PPPDSC's decision on the Florida primary date. Even then, with the flexibility of a year-round legislative cycle, the Michigan legislature could technically wait Florida out and opt to go concurrent with or earlier than the primary in the Sunshine state.

Notice also that there has been no mention of the first four primary/caucus states for a while. If Florida and Michigan battle it out to the earliest date, that only pushes Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada earlier. And there's always Arizona. Already locked into at least February 28, 2012, Governor Jan Brewer could hypothetically throw the Grand Canyon state into the Florida/Michigan mix under the rationale that "if we're already in violation of the national party rules, we may as well go as early as we want".

No, that scenario wouldn't sit well with the national parties, particularly the RNC. I don't know that they envisioned this type of challenge to their new delegate selection rules when they crafted them.

...but they should have.

Hat tip to Saul Anuzis for sharing this news via Twitter.

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Governor Deal Signs Presidential Primary Date Setting Power Over to Georgia Secretary of State

On Friday, May 13, Governor Nathan Deal (R) signed HB 454 into law. The bill transfers the authority for setting the date of the Georgia presidential primary from the General Assembly to the secretary of state. The Peach state's current secretary of state, Brian Kemp, will have until December 1 (at the latest) to choose the date on which Georgia will hold its presidential primary. Though that December deadline and the 60 days required to be within the point of selecting a date and holding the contest would allow for a primary as early as the last Tuesday in January, early signals out of the Republican Party of Georgia indicate a likely April primary. That, however, may depend on the chair Georgia Republicans select this weekend at their annual state convention.

Part of the reason for the higher likelihood of an April primary hinges on Georgia Republicans traditionally holding winner-take-all primaries; something the new Republican delegate selection rules do not allow before April. Presumably, the state party would have a chance to alter the winner-take-all rules to avoid that problem (...if an earlier primary without penalties is desired).¹ It is not clear whether Kemp, a Republican, would follow the suggestions of the state party, but it is likely given the fact that the primary is a means of the party allocating its delegates to the national convention.

One final note should probably be made as the path of this legislation has reached its completion. By ceding the power to the secretary of state, the Georgia General Assembly has granted the state more flexibility -- on par with New Hampshire and similar though not exactly like what is happening in Florida -- to select a presidential primary date that will put the state in a position on the calendar to influence the nomination. The short legislative session that Georgia typically holds so early in the year has continually hampered the states ability to be as free as some other states in selecting a time for a primary.

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This move on Georgia's part moves the Peach state out of February and now has Georgia designated as "No Date" for our purposes here at FHQ until Secretary Kemp selects a date for the presidential primary.

Follow this link for a look back at the legislative process behind this bill and other presidential primary news in Georgia.

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¹ Texas has had the same problem but has no recourse between now and next year's primary due to the fact that the Republican Party of Texas has already held its 2011 state convention and has no means of changing its winner-take-all requirement.

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Missouri House Passes Conference Committee Report, Moving Presidential Primary to March

On the final day of the state legislative session, the Missouri House took up and passed the conference committee substitute to SB 282. After a bit of a rollercoaster ride, the final version of the bill includes a provision to move the presidential primary in the Show Me state back to the first Tuesday after the first Monday in March. The original version of the bill contained the same provision, but was later amended on the floor of the Senate to anchor the primary to New Hampshire (placing the Missouri contest a week after the first in the nation primary).

The final version has now been approved by both chambers of the Missouri General Assembly and moves on the Governor Jay Nixon for his consideration. If signed, Missouri would join Oklahoma, Tennessee and Virginia as states to shift from February primary dates to primaries on March 6. That result is likely because the move would bring Missouri into compliance with national party delegate selection rules.

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Kansas House Passes Conference Committee Report to Cancel 2012 Presidential Primary

The Kansas House on Thursday, May 12 followed the state Senate's lead from earlier in the day and passed the conference committee report for HB 2080. Both chambers have now agreed to the same version of a broader elections bill that, among other things, cancels the Sunflower state's presidential primary for 2012.

The legislation now heads to Governor Sam Brownback's desk for his consideration. As FHQ mentioned yesterday, Kansas' history of canceling presidential primaries makes this bill becoming law likely. Kansas would become the second state to cancel its presidential primary; joining Washington. There are no other states at this time considering that option.

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