1992 Presidential Primary Calendar

January

January (late): Hawaii Republican precinct caucuses

January - March: North Dakota Republican precinct caucuses

January - May: Virginia Republican local meetings

February

Sunday, February 2:
Nevada Republican caucuses (through February 29)

Monday, February 10:
Iowa caucuses (both parties)

Tuesday, February 18:
New Hampshire primary

Sunday, February 23:
Maine caucuses (both parties)

Tuesday, February 25:
South Dakota primary

March

Monday, March 2:
Alaska Republican caucuses

Tuesday, March 3:
Colorado primary
Georgia primary
Idaho Democratic caucuses
Maryland primary
Minnesota Democratic caucuses 
Utah Democratic caucuses 
Washington Democratic caucuses

Thursday, March 5:
North Dakota Democratic caucuses (through March 19)

Saturday, March 7:
Arizona caucuses (Both parties, but the GOP caucuses had no presidential preference. Those
    delegates selected at those caucuses went to the state convention -- 5/10/1992 -- where national
    convention delegate allocation took place.)
South Carolina primary (party-run)
Wyoming caucuses (Both parties, but Republicans meet through March 11)

Sunday, March 8:
Nevada Democratic caucuses

Tuesday, March 10:
Delaware Democratic caucuses
Florida primary
Hawaii Democratic caucuses
Louisiana primary
Massachusetts primary
Mississippi primary
Missouri Democratic caucuses 
Oklahoma primary
Rhode Island primary
Tennessee primary
Texas primary (& Democratic caucuses)

Tuesday, March 17:
Illinois primary
Michigan primary

Tuesday, March 24:
Connecticut primary

Tuesday, March 31:
Vermont caucuses (both parties)

April

April - May: Hawaii Republican regional caucuses

Thursday, April 2:
Alaska Democratic caucuses
North Dakota Republican convention (through April 5)

Tuesday, April 7:
Kansas primary
Minnesota primary (Republicans only)
New York primary (Republicans had no presidential preference on ballot; just delegates)
Wisconsin primary

Saturday, April 11:
Virginia Democratic caucuses (& April 13)

Tuesday, April 14:
Missouri Republican caucuses

Monday, April 27:
Utah Republican caucuses

Tuesday, April 28:
Pennsylvania primary

May

Tuesday, May 5:
Indiana primary
North Carolina primary
Washington, DC primary

Saturday, May 9:
Delaware Republican convention

Sunday, May 10:
Arizona Republican convention

Tuesday, May 12:
Nebraska primary
West Virginia primary

Tuesday, May 19:
Oregon primary
Washington primary (Republicans only)

Tuesday, May 26:
Arkansas primary
Idaho primary (Republicans only)
Kentucky primary

Friday, May 29:
Virginia Republican convention (through May 30, no formal process for presidential preference)

June

Tuesday, June 2:
Alabama primary
California primary
Montana primary (Democrats only)
New Jersey primary
New Mexico primary
Ohio primary

Tuesday, June 9:
North Dakota primary (beauty contest for both parties)

July

Thursday, July 9:
Montana Republican convention (through July 11, no formal process for presidential preference)

[Primaries in bold; Caucuses in italics]

*States that are split vertically had different dates for different party contests. The shade to the left of that line corresponds with the month in which the Democratic contest took place and the right side represents the Republican contest.

[Source: Congressional Quarterly and news accounts from 1992. The latter was used to double-check the dates or discover missing ones.]

A few notes:
1. This map has been altered slightly from the one that was in the chronological slideshow previously. The reason for this is that I wanted to add in the dates of the Republican primaries and caucuses as well. I touched on this in the calendar post for 1984, but didn't account for the uncompetitive Republican contests that year because the data were harder to come by. For 1992, I was able to track those dates down. The result is a lot of split states.* And though these uncompetitive Republican contests don't factor into my specific research question regarding frontloading, their movement from cycle to cycle could open the door to an alternate set of questions.

2. The frontloading witnessed in 1992 was a product of, similar to the situations in 2004 and 2008, the window being widened to allow for earlier contests. In 2004 that meant February contests, but in 1992, national party rules allowed for contests to take place during the first week in March. Furthermore, Iowa and New Hampshire were joined in 1992 by South Dakota and Maine as states exempted from the Democratic Party's window rule (No contest could be held before the first Tuesday in March unless exempted by the party.).

3. Several states made the transition from caucus to primary in 1992. Though, oddly enough, none of them stuck. Colorado, Kansas and Minnesota all were previously caucus states, were primary states in 1992 and by 2004 were all caucus states again. Those 1992 shifts were countered by the opposite move in a couple of border/Southern states. Both Missouri and Virginia went from being primary states in 1988 -- for the Southern Super Tuesday -- to being caucus states in 1992. South Carolina, on the other hand, moved to a primary in 1992 and in the case of the Republican Party has kept that primary in place ever since.

4. And what about frontloading in 1992? Compared to 1988 there wasn't that much movement forward on the calendar. South Dakota, with its exemption, jumped the most -- from June to February -- but, on the whole, the '92 cycle was marked by backloading more than frontloading. Several Southern states reverted to prior positions (Alabama, Arkansas, Kentucky, North Carolina). The frontloading that did take place was much less pronounced, movement measured in weeks instead of months (Colorado, Georgia and Maryland). The result is that this calendar is essentially equally as frontloaded as 1988 if not slightly less so.

5. The Republican contests were difficult to nail down in some cases. The map reflects the point at which the earliest step in the process occurred. So though Hawaii, North Dakota and Virginia didn't allocate delegates until their conventions, there were early (and staggered) meetings that took place in January.


Recent Posts:
The 2012 Presidential Primary Calendar (2/19/09)

Beebe's Signature Makes It Official: Arkansas Back to May

North Carolina Bill to Move 2012 Primary to February

The 2012 Presidential Primary Calendar (2/19/09)

For the most up-to-date version of this calendar see the left sidebar under the 2012 electoral college projection or click here.

With Arkansas making the state's presidential primary move from February to May official, FHQ is compelled to update the 2012 Presidential Primary Calendar. Now, I should add that I'm going to leave these updates somewhat messy on purpose to provide as much detail as possible. The "clean" version -- the version with the calendar as it currently stands -- will always be in the side bar. [The side bar calendar will also have a link to the most current "messy" version of the 2012 calendar at the bottom.] Here, then, are the caveats to what you see below:

1. Caucus states are italicized while primary states are not.
2. States that have changed dates appear twice on the calendar; once by the old date and once by the new date. The old date will be struck through while the new date will be color-coded with the amount of movement (in days) in parentheses. States in green are states that have moved to earlier dates on the calendar and states in red are those that have moved to later dates. Arkansas, for example, has moved its 2012 primary and moved it back 104 days.
   
3. You'll also see that some of the states on the calendar are live links. These are links to active legislation that would shift the date on which that state's presidential primary would be held in 2012. That allows us to track the status of the legislation more easily.
   

2012 Presidential Primary Calendar

Monday, January 16, 2012: Iowa caucuses*

Tuesday, January 24: New Hampshire*

Saturday, January 28: Nevada caucuses*, South Carolina*

A note on the placement of Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina.

Tuesday, January 31: Florida

Tuesday, February 7 (Super Tuesday): Alabama, Arkansas, California, Connecticut, Delaware, Georgia, Illinois, Missouri, New Jersey, New York, Oklahoma, Tennessee and Utah

Saturday, February 11: Louisiana

Tuesday, February 14: Maryland, Virginia

Tuesday, February 21: Wisconsin

Tuesday, February 28: Arizona**, Michigan***

Tuesday, March 6: Massachusetts***, Ohio, Rhode Island, Texas and Vermont

Tuesday, March 13: Mississippi

Tuesday, March 20: Colorado caucuses****

Tuesday, April 24: Pennsylvania

Tuesday, May 8: Indiana, North Carolina and West Virginia

Tuesday, May 15: Nebraska, Oregon

Tuesday, May 22: Arkansas (-104), Idaho, Kentucky

Tuesday, June 5: Montana, New Mexico***** and South Dakota

*New Hampshire law calls for the Granite state to hold a primary on the second Tuesday of March or seven days prior to any other similar election, whichever is earlier. Florida is first now, so New Hampshire would be a week earlier at the latest. Traditionally, Iowa has gone on the Monday a week prior to New Hampshire. For the time being we'll wedge Nevada and South Carolina in on the Saturday between New Hampshire and Florida, but these are just guesses at the moment. Any rogue states could cause a shift.

**In Arizona the governor can use his or her proclamation powers to move the state's primary to a date on which the event would have an impact on the nomination. In 2004 and 2008 the primary was moved to the first Tuesday in February.

***Massachusetts and Michigan are the only states that passed a frontloading bill prior to 2008 that was not permanent. The Bay state reverts to its first Tuesday in March date in 2012 while Michigan will fall back to the fourth Tuesday in February.

****The Colorado Democratic and Republican parties have the option to move their caucuses from the third Tuesday in March to the first Tuesday in February.

*****The law in New Mexico allows the parties to decide when to hold their nominating contests. The Democrats have gone in early February in the last two cycles, but the GOP has held steady in June. They have the option of moving however.

A note on the Minnesota caucuses.

Recent Posts:
Beebe's Signature Makes It Official: Arkansas Back to May

North Carolina Bill to Move 2012 Primary to February

1988 Presidential Primary Calendar

Beebe's Signature Makes It Official: Arkansas Back to May

Ballot Access News is reporting that Arkansas Governor Mike Beebe has signed HB 1021 (Act 26) into law, moving the state's presidential primary back to May from February. FHQ has been unable to independently verify this information. The folks in Little Rock seem to have been more tied up in former-President Clinton's address to the legislature today than other matters. Neither the governor's web site nor the legislature's web site (see bill link above) have anything up about the legislation being signed into law. When that information is more widely dispersed I'll post another link(s).

However, I did want to look through the bill to make sure FHQ had the correct date for an updated version of the 2012 Presidential Primary Calendar. The outcome? Arkansas has some interesting language to its election law. The only mention of "Tuesday" in the legislation, or for that matter the Arkansas Codes, is in reference to the primary (presidential and state/local) being on the second Tuesday of any month or the second Tuesday in June.

Huh?

It turns out that when the statutes call reference a "General Primary Election" they mean a runoff. What's call the "Preference Primary" -- the actual primary -- is held three weeks prior to that in late May. [Thanks to The Green Papers for that clarification, here.] In 2012, the second Tuesday in June is June 12. The Arkansas primary would then take place on May 22, three weeks ahead of that.

This, of course, assumes that Arkansas doesn't pull a New Jersey circa 2008 and move twice before 2012. That bill to move the primary to August (SB235) is still active. But the August language seems to have been striken from the bill with the second amendment added on Wednesday (February 18). That leaves a bill that looks an awful lot like the one signed by the governor today.


Recent Posts:
North Carolina Bill to Move 2012 Primary to February

1988 Presidential Primary Calendar

1984 Presidential Primary Calendar

North Carolina Bill to Move 2012 Primary to February

On Wednesday, a bill (S150) to move North Carolina's presidential primary from May to February in 2012 was filed in the state Senate. Under normal circumstances, I might get excited about this. For starters, it isn't typically until after the midterm elections that the full flurry of frontloading activity takes place in state legislatures across the country. [Well, that's not true. There is usually activity, but it usually isn't "successful" activity resulting in an actual move.] Arkansas, for instance, is close to moving its presidential primary back in 2012 and there has been a bill introduced in Illinois with essentially the same goal for the primaries in the Land of Lincoln. North Carolina, though, becomes the first state to have a bill introduced that proposes a move forward on the 2012 presidential primary calendar.

A couple of questions come out of this:
1) Why aren't you excited?
2) What's with the lack of activity?

Let's deal with number one first. This bill isn't groundbreaking legislation in the North Carolina Senate. Actually, it is deja vu all over again. The same bill was introduced by the same group of Republican senators two years ago. [Well, the group of nine senate co-sponsors in 2007 has now swelled to ten; adding Austin Allran to the list in 2009.] That bill (S168) was referred to the Judiciary (I) committee, where it got bottled up and eventually faded away. Judiciary (I) is still chaired by Democratic State Senator Martin L. Nesbitt, who was new to the post at the outset of the 2007 session. Needless to say, the conditions are the very same in 2009 as they were in 2007 (within the legislature at least), and the outcome isn't likely to be any different. Removed from the equation, though, is fact that both parties' nominations won't be at stake in 2012 (making successful passage of this bill even less likely still). And that brings us to the second question.

Why isn't there any more activity on the frontloading front? [After all, it seemed like a big deal when all these states were moving prior to the 2008 primary season.] Well, part of it is political. Unless Obama fails miserably in the next couple of years, the president won't be challenged in the Democratic primaries in 2012. All eyes are on the GOP then. Either the national party will devise a different nomination system (either completely different or slightly modified) or Republican-dominated states (whether state legislatures or state parties) will look to move to more influential positions on the primary calendar in 2012.

States where the Democratic Party is the majority party or where there is more competition between the parties are less likely to throw their hats in the frontloading ring. In the Democratic-controlled states there is no perceived need to get involved in the GOP nomination race; especially if the state's primary or caucus is closed to Democrats or independents. [Why move up for the Republicans?] If the primary is open to cross-over/independent voters, they could have a moderating effect on the Republican nomination race. But why would a Democratic state be motivated to have a moderating effect on the outcome of the GOP nomination? A more extreme candidate, is a more beatable candidate for an incumbent Democratic candidate.

In the more competitive/divided government states (in terms of party competition), Democrats, again, would be motivated to obstruct Republican efforts to move a presidential primary forward. Such a state is likely to be a battleground state in the general election and Democrats within the state would not be motivated to allow for an earlier contest and in turn earlier party and candidate organization in the state. It just is not strategically wise.

To make a short story long, then, there isn't any frontloading activity because...
1) it is early.

2) only one party will likely have a contested nomination race, and

3) This is related to the the first point -- I would suspect some states are still waiting to see if the Republican Party or both parties working together in some way attempt to fundamentally alter the presidential nomination system. But that's a subject for another post.

H/t: Ballot Access News for bringing this to our attention today.

Recent Posts:
1988 Presidential Primary Calendar

1984 Presidential Primary Calendar

More on the Potential August Arkansas Primary

1988 Presidential Primary Calendar

January

Thursday, January 14:
Michigan Republican caucus (middle step in delegate allocation -- process began in August 1986)

February

Monday, February 1:
Kansas Republican caucuses (through February 7)

Thursday, February 4:
Hawaii Republican caucuses

Monday, February 8:
Iowa caucuses (both parties)

Tuesday, February 9:
Wyoming Republican caucuses (through February 24)

Tuesday, February 16:
New Hampshire primary

Thursday, February 18:
Nevada Republican caucuses

Tuesday, February 23:
Minnesota caucuses (both parties)
South Dakota primary

Friday, February 26:
Maine Republican caucuses (through February 28)

Saturday, February 27:
Alaska Republican caucuses (through March 1)

Sunday, February 28:
Maine Democratic caucuses

March

Tuesday, March 1:
Vermont primary (beauty contest -- no delegates at stake)

Saturday, March 5:
South Carolina Republican primary (party-run)
Wyoming Democratic caucuses

Tuesday, March 8:
Alabama primary
Arkansas primary
Florida primary
Georgia primary
Hawaii Democratic caucuses
Idaho Democratic caucuses
Kentucky primary
Louisiana primary
Maryland primary
Massachusetts primary
Mississippi primary
Missouri primary
Nevada Democratic caucuses 
North Carolina primary
Oklahoma primary
Rhode Island primary
Tennessee primary
Texas primary (Democratic primary-caucus)
Virginia primary
Washington caucuses (both parties)

Thursday, March 10:
Alaska Democratic caucuses

Saturday, March 12:
South Carolina Democratic caucuses

Tuesday, March 15:
Illinois primary

Saturday, March 19:
Kansas Democratic caucuses

Saturday, March 26:
Michigan Democratic caucuses

Sunday, March 27:
North Dakota Democratic caucuses

Tuesday, March 29:
Connecticut primary

April

Monday, April 4:
Colorado caucuses (both parties)

Tuesday, April 5:
Delaware Republican caucuses (through April 25)
Wisconsin primary

Saturday, April 16:
Arizona Democratic caucuses

Monday, April 18:
Delaware Democratic caucuses

Tuesday, April 19:
New York primary
Vermont caucuses (both parties)

Monday, April 25:
Utah caucuses (both parties)

Tuesday, April 26:
Pennsylvania primary

May

Tuesday, May 3:
Indiana primary
Ohio primary

Tuesday, May 10:
Nebraska primary
West Virginia primary

Saturday, May 14:
Arizona Republican convention (end of multi-tiered caucus process which began in 1986)

Tuesday, May 17:
Oregon primary

Tuesday, May 24:
Idaho primary (Republicans only),

June

Tuesday, June 7:
California primary
Montana primary
New Jersey primary
New Mexico primary

Tuesday, June 14:
North Dakota primary (Republicans only)


[Primaries in bold; Caucuses in italics]

States that are split vertically had different dates for different party contests. The shade to the left of that line corresponds with the month in which the Democratic contest took place and the right side represents the Republican contest.

[Source: Congressional Quarterly and news accounts from 1988. The latter was used to double-check the dates or discover missing ones.]

A few notes:
1) Obviously, the Southern Super Tuesday fundamentally shifted the balance in terms of frontloading in 1988. Up to this point our simple metric has been examining the number of contests (primaries specifically) held in May and June. From 1976-1984, May and June combined represented the time when most presidential primaries were being held. That wasn't the case in 1988. First of all, there was a jump in the number of primaries (Several southern states made the switch from caucus to primary between 1984 and 1988.). And secondly, only eleven of those 35 primaries were in May and June. 19 of those primaries were in March alone -- 15 of which were on Super Tuesday (March 8). The center of gravity in the nomination calendar, then, shifted from May to March and wouldn't formally shift again until both parties allowed for February contests (2000 for the GOP and 2004 for the Democrats).

2) January contests were back in 1988. Iowa had camped out in late January in 1976 and 1980; joined by several other caucus states that were largely ignored by the candidates and the media. In 1984, however, Iowa dropped back into February when only the Democratic nomination was at stake. The Hawkeye state stayed in February in 1988, but saw Michigan's Republicans jump into January. Which brings us to...

3) Two states began the 1988 delegate selection process in 1986. [Take that Florida and Michigan in 2008!] This sounds like a major violation of party rules, but in actuality it wasn't. To that point, only the Democrats were using the "Window Rule" to define when a state could and could not hold its delegate selection event. In other words, if you look back at those January (and even February) contests outside of Iowa in 1976 and 1980, it is a group of Republican contests mainly (and caucuses at that). The same holds true in this case. In 1988 (or in 1986 more accurately), Arizona and Michigan both held the initial stages of their Republican delegate selection. The Democratic caucuses in both states were in April and March, respectively -- within the DNC's delegate selection rules. However, this shows that 2008 was not Michigan's first foray into challenging Iowa and New Hampshire's first in the nation status.


Recent Posts:
1984 Presidential Primary Calendar

More on the Potential August Arkansas Primary

1980 Presidential Primary Calendar

1984 Presidential Primary Calendar

February

Monday, February 20:
Iowa caucuses (both parties)

Tuesday, February 28:
New Hampshire primary

March

Sunday, March 4:
Maine Democratic caucuses

Saturday, March 10:
Wyoming Democratic caucuses

Tuesday, March 13:
Alabama primary
Florida primary
Georgia primary
Hawaii Democratic caucuses 
Massachusetts primary
Nevada Democratic caucuses 
Oklahoma Democratic caucuses 
Rhode Island primary
Washington Democratic caucuses

Wednesday, March 14:
Delaware Democratic caucuses 
North Dakota Democratic caucuses (through March 28)

Thursday, March 15:
Alaska Democratic caucuses

Saturday, March 17:
Arkansas Democratic caucuses 
Michigan Democratic caucuses
Mississippi Democratic caucuses 
South Carolina Democratic caucuses

Tuesday, March 20:
Illinois primary
Minnesota Democratic caucuses

Saturday, March 24:
Kansas Democratic caucuses
Virginia Democratic caucuses (and March 26)

Sunday, March 25:
Montana Democratic caucuses

Tuesday, March 27:
Connecticut primary

Saturday, March 31:
Kentucky Democratic caucuses

April

Tuesday, April 3:
New York primary
Wisconsin primary (Republicans only)

Saturday, April 7:
Wisconsin Democratic caucuses

Tuesday, April 10:
Pennsylvania primary

Saturday, April 14:
Arizona Democratic caucuses

Wednesday, April 18:
Missouri Democratic caucuses

Tuesday, April 24:
Vermont Democratic caucuses

Wednesday, April 25:
Utah Democratic caucuses

May

Tuesday, May 1:
Tennessee primary

Washington, DC primary

Saturday, May 5:
Colorado Democratic caucuses
Louisiana primary
Texas Democratic caucuses

Tuesday, May 8:
Indiana primary
Maryland primary
North Carolina primary
Ohio primary

Tuesday, May 15:
Nebraska primary
Oregon primary

Thursday, May 24:
Idaho primary and Democratic caucuses (primary was a beauty contest with no delegates at stake;
    delegates were allocated through the caucuses)

June

Tuesday, June 5:
California primary
Mississippi primary (Republicans only)
Montana primary (Republicans only)
New Jersey primary
New Mexico primary
South Dakota primary
West Virginia primary

[Primaries in bold; Caucuses in italics]

States that are split vertically had different dates for different party contests. The shade to the left of that line corresponds with the month in which the Democratic contest took place and the right side represents the Republican contest.

[Source: Congressional Quarterly and news accounts from 1984. The latter was used to double-check the dates or discover missing ones.]

A few notes:
1) 1984, and to a lesser extent 1992 and 1996, are frustrating years for cataloging the full calendar. The Democratic calendar is much easier to put together, but the Republican calendar is harder to come by simply because Ronald Reagan ran virtually unopposed in his bid for the GOP nomination that year. In other words, we know when the GOP primaries were, but have a more difficult time ascertaining when the caucuses were held. This is less a problem in 1992 and 1996 because that data is readily available, though harder to find than, say, the Republican calendar in 2004. As such, this is a tentative map and calendar. It will be augmented as soon as I incorporate the Republican calendar. That information isn't a vital portion of my research question, but it will certainly be something to account for in the future. There are some potentially secondary questions there.

2) The 1984 calendar is an awful lot like the one in 1980. 15 of the 26 primaries (excluding the Idaho beauty contest for the Democrats) held occurred after the beginning of May.
3) However, the date on which the greatest number of delegate selection events were held was March 13; much earlier than in 1980 when the last week had nine contests. Granted in 1980, the first Tuesday in June had nine total contests to the second Tuesday in March's seven, whereas four years later those numbers were in reverse. In other words, there wasn't a large overall shift of contests to earlier dates.

3) Overall, the month of March saw six more contests in 1984 as compared to 1980. But the fact that there were no January contests and four fewer February contests in 1984 was the main factor driving this increase; not movement from the later states of 1980.

Recent Posts:
More on the Potential August Arkansas Primary

1980 Presidential Primary Calendar

Arkansas Senate Unanimously Passes Primary Bill

More on the Potential August Arkansas Primary

I left off the other day speculating that a post-convention, pre-general election primary was not the intent of legislators pushing an August primary in Arkansas. [Actually, in its amended form, SB 253 calls for a late July presidential preference primary, separate from the other primary contests to be conducted during the third week in August.] But why make this move? It isn't to influence the general election. The parties would likely move relatively quickly to quash such a move.

In reality, the move, like many in politics, is to counter the unintended consequences of a previous change. In November, Arkansas voters passed a constitutional amendment to allow the state legislature to meet annually instead of biennially. Traditionally, the Arkansas General Assembly has met in odd-numbered years only, handling the business of the state between January and May. There have been extra sessions and up until 2000, they were held during the same calendar year as the regular session (since 1987). Since 2000, though, four of the five general assemblies have held these extra sessions in even-numbered years. The amendment basically institutionalizes the extra session, splitting the duties of the legislature into a regular session in odd-numbered years and a session focused on appropriations only in even-numbered years.

What does that have to do with the primary election?

A good question. Whether State Sen. Bill Pritchard (also one of the sponsors of the original amendment) moves forward with proposing a bill to switch the session alignment (regular session in even-numbered years and budget session in odd-numbered years), the May primary for state legislative positions will occur within a couple of weeks of the end of the one of the legislative sessions. That leaves only a small window of time for incumbents to campaign for the election. On top of that, legislators have traditionally eschewed fundraising (due to a self-imposed rule) activities during sessions and for 30 days before and after them. That obviously encompasses the primaries in this case and poses a problem for state legislative incumbents. [Their challengers aren't faced with the same problem.]

The amendment opened up a can of worms in other words. SB 253 is seeking to address the problems state legislators are potentially going to face, but in tandem with the likely repeal of the February presidential primary, that means there are issues with delegate allocation in 2012. And this doesn't even take into account the issues (the strain of a non-stop blitz of work from the summer through the general election in November) local election board officials have with this proposal.

While a post-convention primary seems to have been averted with addition of an amendment for a late July primary for presidential preference, this contest would likely fall outside of the window established by the parties.


Recent Posts:
1980 Presidential Primary Calendar

Arkansas Senate Unanimously Passes Primary Bill

Arkansas Senate Slated to Vote on 2012 Presidential Primary Today

1980 Presidential Primary Calendar

January

Monday, January 21:
Iowa caucuses (both parties)

Tuesday, January 22:
Hawaii Republican caucuses

February

Friday, February 1:
Maine Republican caucuses (through March 15)

Saturday, February 2:
Arkansas Republican caucuses

Monday, February 4:
Wyoming Republican caucuses (through March 5)

Sunday, February 10:
Maine Democratic caucuses

Tuesday, February 26:
Minnesota caucuses (both parties)
New Hampshire primary

March

March: Virginia Republican caucuses (through April)

Tuesday, March 4:
Massachusetts primary
Vermont primary (beauty contest--no delegates at stake)

Saturday, March 8:
South Carolina Republican primary (party-run)

Tuesday, March 11:
Alabama primary
Alaska Democratic caucuses
Florida primary
Georgia primary
Hawaii Democratic caucuses 
Oklahoma Democratic caucuses 
Washington caucuses (both parties)

Wednesday, March 12:
Delaware Democratic caucuses

Saturday, March 15:
Mississippi Democratic caucuses 
South Carolina Democratic caucuses 
Wyoming Democratic caucuses

Tuesday, March 18:
Illinois primary

Friday, March 21:
North Dakota Republican caucuses

Saturday, March 22:
Virginia Democratic caucuses

Tuesday, March 25:
Connecticut primary
New York primary

April

Tuesday, April 1:
Kansas primary
Wisconsin primary

Saturday, April 5:
Louisiana primary
Missouri Republican caucuses (through April 12)

Monday, April 7:
Oklahoma Republican caucuses

Saturday, April 12:
Arizona Democratic caucuses

Sunday, April 13:
Arizona Republican committee meeting (& caucuses)

Thursday, April 17:
Idaho Democratic caucuses

Saturday, April 19:
Alaska Republican convention (through April 20)
North Dakota Democratic caucuses

Tuesday, April 22:
Missouri Democratic caucuses
Pennsylvania primary
Vermont caucuses (both parties)

Saturday, April 26:
Michigan Democratic caucuses

Wednesday, April 30:
Delaware Republican committee meeting (& caucuses)

May

Saturday, May 3:
Texas primary (Republicans)
Texas Democratic caucuses

Monday, May 5:
Colorado caucuses (both parties)

Tuesday, May 6:
Indiana primary
North Carolina primary
Tennessee primary

Tuesday, May 13:
Maryland primary
Nebraska primary

Monday, May 19:
Utah caucuses (both parties)

Tuesday, May 20:
Michigan primary (Republicans)
Oregon primary

Tuesday, May 27:
Arkansas primary (Democrats)
Idaho primary (Republicans)
Kentucky primary
Nevada primary

June

Tuesday, June 3:
California primary
Mississippi Republican primary (party-run)
Montana primary (Democrats)
New Jersey primary
New Mexico primary
Ohio primary
Rhode Island primary
South Dakota primary
West Virginia primary

Wednesday, June 4:
Montana Republican caucuses (through June 12)

[Primaries in bold; Caucuses in italics]

States that are split vertically had different dates for different party contests. The shade to the left of that line corresponds with the month in which the Democratic contest took place and the right side represents the Republican contest.

[Source: Congressional Quarterly and news accounts from 1980. The latter was used to double-check the dates or discover missing ones.]

A few notes:
1) This is a classically backloaded calendar. There were 27 states that held primaries in which both parties participated. Of those 27, 15 were held on May 6 or later. If this is expanded to included states where just one party held a primary (either opting into the state-funded primary or holding a party-run contest), the total number of primary states rises to 34. Of those 34, 20 were on or after May 6.

2) The date on which the most contests were held was June 3. Nine states had contests on the first Tuesday in June. However, the second largest collection of nominating contests was during the second week in March. Altogether, seven states held primaries or caucuses on that date; the first early Super Tuesday. Much of this was due to the Carter administration-brokered movement in Alabama and Georgia. The move was made as an effort to give the president a counter to the victories Ted Kennedy could have gotten in New Hampshire and Massachusetts, two and one week earlier, respectively. Those moves were the first conscious frontloading moves by states.

3) The number of intra-state primary/caucus splits between the parties grew compared to 1976. Whereas Montana was the only state with one party opting into the state-funded primary while the other held a caucus in 1976, seven states had such party-based contest divisions in 1980.


Recent Posts:
Arkansas Senate Unanimously Passes Primary Bill

Arkansas Senate Slated to Vote on 2012 Presidential Primary Today

1976 Presidential Primary Calendar

Arkansas Senate Unanimously Passes Primary Bill

There's a different "first in the nation" in presidential primary politics: the first state in the nation to move its presidential primary. For the second cycle in a row, Arkansas looks as if it will claim that mantle. In 2005 it was all about being early, but four years later saving money (and face, perhaps) seems to have won out.

Today the Arkansas Senate followed the lead of its counterparts in the House and voted unanimously to repeal the presidential primary established in the nearly four year old law. The bill (HB 1021) now heads to the governor's desk, and all signs point toward him signing it into law. A collective vote of 131 - 0 and $3 million in cost savings will do that even when the legislature and governor's mansion are controlled by different parties.


Recent Posts:
Arkansas Senate Slated to Vote on 2012 Presidential Primary Today

1976 Presidential Primary Calendar

Chairman Steele and the 2012 Presidential Primary Calendar

Arkansas Senate Slated to Vote on 2012 Presidential Primary Today

Nearly two weeks after the Arkansas House voted unanimously to repeal the state's February presidential primary, the Senate has a vote (on HB 1021) scheduled for this afternoon. The bill has passed the Senate's State Agencies and Governmental Affairs Committee with a "Do Pass" designation. Thus far, the only amendment tacked on to the legislation has been one to add a Senate co-sponsor to the bill. In other words, this one seems like a done deal. And as FHQ mentioned recently, Governor Bebee has indicated that he would sign the bill should it wind up on his desk.

The only complicating factor is a bill recently read and referred to committee in the Senate. In its original form, SB 253 would have repealed the February presidential primary -- making that election concurrent with the primaries for state and local offices -- and shifted everything back to the third week in August. [What if the a major party's convention is before that point?!?] In its amended form (the one currently in committee), the bill would hold the presidential primary three weeks prior to that third week in August. In 2008, Michigan and Florida both defied party rules to hold their primaries ahead of the front end of the window in which the parties allowed non-exempt states to go. However, it is rare that a state would challenge the back end of that window. In fact, since the Democrats established the "window rule" prior to the 1980 presidential campaign, no state has held a delegate selection event later than the second Tuesday in June. Sure, as we saw during 2008, many of the caucus states wrapped up their delegate selection with late June and early July state conventions, but the first step in that process -- the one that counts in terms of media coverage and thus momentum -- came much earlier.

To say this is unusual, then, isn't a stretch. It would be a first. Of course, the new governor of Illinois, Pat Quinn, has expressed an interest in a September primary for the 2010 election (H/t to Ballot Access News for that link.). It isn't clear whether that extends to 2012 and the presidential primary, but Illinois is one of those states which has traditionally held its presidential primary together with its primaries for state and local offices.

In years when there is a massive frontloading shift, we typically see some backtracking (ie: the 1988 to 1992 transition following the Southern Super Tuesday), but if Arkansas and Illinois (and this one has not made it as far as being proposed as legislation yet) were to follow through with these moves it would represent an entirely new path for presidential primary movement. The other caveat is that the parties have incentivized primary scheduling since 2000. States going later in the process get bonus delegates. How many bonus delegates would a state get for holding its primary in August or September.

But let's think about this for a moment. [Allow me to jump off the deep end here.] Holding such a late primary is basically giving up. Oh, let's put that more diplomatically. How about opting out of the primary system? But as a result, the voters of the state don't have a say in influencing the decision of either party's nominee. On top of that, these contests would come after at least one of the major parties' conventions.

What effect, then, would such a contest have on the general election? This is somewhat similar to the conversation we had going last summer about Guam and the general election straw poll the island wanted to hold in September before the election. Now, if your state is already holding a primary or caucus after the point at which the nomination has been unofficially claimed, what does it matter where you go. Why not attempt to have some real influence? In essence, a state in such a situation would miss influencing the first step of the process, but could have a significant impact on the second, post-winnowing step.

Granted, this scenario would mean less if a state had a closed primary. Democrats vote for the one Democrat on the ballot (the party's nominee) and Republicans vote for the one Republican on the ballot. There isn't much to that. It isn't telling us too much. However, in an open primary state, we'd have a better chance of adding up both ballots and extrapolating something from that. Think about having a primary in between the conventions and the debates. Candidates would show up to a state like that and the coverage would be off the charts whether it was a gimme state or a competitive one (more so in the case of the latter).

But this isn't even the intent in either Arkansas or Illinois. It is fun to think about, though.


Recent Posts:
1976 Presidential Primary Calendar

Chairman Steele and the 2012 Presidential Primary Calendar

Presidential Primary and Caucus Dates Over Time

1976 Presidential Primary Calendar

January

Monday, January 19:
Iowa caucuses (both parties)

Saturday, January 24:
Mississippi Democratic caucuses

Friday, January 27:
Hawaii Republican caucuses

February

February: Maine Democratic caucuses (all month long)

Wednesday, February 4:
Wyoming Republican caucuses (all month through March 5)

Saturday, February 7:
Oklahoma Democratic caucuses

Tuesday, February 10:
Alaska Democratic caucuses

Tuesday, February 24:
Minnesota caucuses (both parties)
New Hampshire primary

Saturday, February 28:
South Carolina Democratic caucuses

March

Tuesday, March 2:
Massachusetts primary
Vermont primary (beauty contest--no delegates at stake)
Washington caucuses (both parties)

Tuesday, March 9:
Hawaii Democratic caucuses 
Florida primary

Friday, March 12:
South Carolina Republican caucuses (through March 13)

Sunday, March 14:
Wyoming Democratic caucuses

Tuesday, March 16:
Illinois primary

Friday, March 19:
Kansas Republican caucuses

Tuesday, March 23:
Connecticut Republican caucuses
North Carolina primary

Saturday, March 27:
Mississippi Republican caucuses

Monday, March 29:
Maine Republican caucuses

April

Saturday, April 3:
Kansas Democratic caucuses 
Virginia Democratic caucuses

Monday, April 5:
Oklahoma Republican caucuses

Tuesday, April 6:
New York primary
Wisconsin primary

Monday, April 19:
Missouri Republican caucuses (through April 24)

Tuesday, April 20:
Missouri Democratic caucuses

Thursday, April 22:
New Mexico Democratic caucuses

Saturday, April 24:
Arizona Democratic caucuses/Republican convention 
Vermont caucuses (both parties)

Sunday, April 25:
New Mexico Republican caucuses (through May 1)

Tuesday, April 27:
North Dakota Democratic caucuses
Pennsylvania primary

May

Saturday, May 1:
Louisiana Democratic caucuses
North Dakota Republican caucuses (through June 14)
Texas primary

Monday, May 3:
Colorado caucuses (both parties)

Tuesday, May 4:
Alabama primary
Georgia primary
Indiana primary

Saturday, May 8:
Louisiana Republican caucuses (through May 15)

Tuesday, May 11:
Connecticut Democratic caucuses
Nebraska primary
West Virginia primary

Friday, May 14:
Virginia Republican caucuses (through May 15)

Monday, May 17:
Utah caucuses (both parties)

Tuesday, May 18:
Maryland primary
Michigan primary

Saturday, May 22:
Alaska Republican caucuses

Tuesday, May 25:
Arkansas primary
Idaho primary
Kentucky primary
Nevada primary
Oregon primary
Tennessee primary

June

Tuesday, June 1:
Montana primary (Democrats only, Republican beauty contest--no delegates at stake)
Rhode Island primary
South Dakota primary

Tuesday, June 8:
California primary
New Jersey primary
Ohio primary

Friday, June 11:
Delaware Democratic convention

Saturday, June 19:
Delaware Republican convention

Saturday, June 26:
Montana Republican convention

[Primaries in bold; Caucuses in italics]

[Source: Congressional Quarterly and news accounts from 1976. The latter was used to double-check the dates or discover missing ones.]


A few notes:
1) The number of shared dates between state contests was relatively few in 1976.
2) Relatedly, the closest thing to a Super Tuesday in 1976 was May 25. Six states held primaries on that date. Outside of that, there were several dates with three contests, but that was the most.
3) Barely half of the contests were primaries (28 if you count the Montana primary.). The remaining states held caucuses, and of those caucus states, only 5 held both their Democratic and Republican contests on the same date. That leaves 17 states with separate dates for their major party caucuses. That number climbs to 18 if you count the Montana primary/convention split between the Democrats and Republicans, respectively.


Recent Posts:
Chairman Steele and the 2012 Presidential Primary Calendar

Presidential Primary and Caucus Dates Over Time

Presidential Primary and Caucus Dates Over Time (Take 1)

Chairman Steele and the 2012 Presidential Primary Calendar

Marc Ambinder has within the last week written some interesting stuff about the choice in the RNC chair race and the ramifications that may have on the presidential primary calendar for 2012 (see here and here). Let me put it this way: Michael Steele's selection was not greeted happily by Sarah Palin, Mike Huckabee or any other social conservative thinking about throwing their name in the ring for a run at the White House in 2012.

Why?

Well, as the National Review mentioned in December, the new chairman is charged with some new powers that haven't been granted RNC chairs in the past. These new powers originated with the decision at last September's convention in Minneapolis to allow for the rules governing the 2012 nomination process to be altered outside of the bounds of the convention. In the past the GOP has simply crafted the rules for four years down the road at the preceding convention. As a part of opening that process up, the chair of the national party was given the ability to name nearly 80% of the members of this commission, or drafting committee, as Ambinder calls it.

Does this mean that significant change is on the way?

Not necessarily, but with Steele in place as the new chair of the RNC, it is more likely that a significant re-write of the rules will be undertaken than if one of the more conservative candidates for the position had won enough votes last Friday.

Here's the thing, though: I don't see the nomination process being turned upside down. [FAMOUS LAST WORDS!] What I do see is an effort to make some more moderate Republican (perhaps even Democratic) states a part of the exempt group of states at the beginning of the process (See the Democratic Party in 2006 with the exemption of South Carolina and Nevada.). No Republican since 1980 has won the party's nomination without winning South Carolina's primary first. Water down the impact of the Palmetto state's contest on the process with some less conservative states and the dynamics of nominee selection could be changed dramatically.

That is a far easier way of creating a path to the nomination for a more moderate Republican. It doesn't involve a complete overhaul of the system -- needed though it may be in the eyes of some -- and totally circumvents the possibility that there are multiple states that cannot comply with Republican Party rules, thus having to face holding a less representative caucus instead of a primary.

Again, nothing is written in stone at this point. But Steele's position at the top of the Republican Party makes it more likely than any of the other five candidates, save former Michigan GOP chair, Saul Anuzis, that there will be some significant changes to the 2012 presidential primary calendar.

[NOTE(S): Speaking of primary calendars, I'll be posting the dates of the contests from 1976-2008 to go along with the maps I posted last week. When that process is complete, all those maps in the left sidebar will be "click to enlarge" ready. I realize that is one major drawback to their presence there now, but the slideshow is still basically at the top of the front page. Also, I'll have a bit more on reform as the week goes on. I'm busily plowing through the symposium on presidential primary reform in the latest issue of PS as well as the Dan Lowenstein chapter on the possibility of federal intervention. Good stuff and it is all comment-worthy. Finally, thanks for your patience. I was on the road last week at a job interview and was busy, busy, busy while I was there and exhausted when I got back. That's why posting has been light since I put the maps up last week. However, with state legislatures back in session and me putting the finishing touches on my dissertation, relevant posts should be increasing in number as we head into spring.]


Recent Posts:
Presidential Primary and Caucus Dates Over Time

Presidential Primary and Caucus Dates Over Time (Take 1)

New Jersey in 2012

Presidential Primary and Caucus Dates Over Time

[Editor's Note: After having gotten similar feedback on the maps from some folks here at UGA today, I thought I'd attempt to edit them. They were nice in isolation -- if you had the time to learn and discern the color coding -- but for showing a trend quickly, the original colors weren't cutting it. So I decided to take Matthew up on his suggestion and see if I could make a six shade gradient work. I think it does. You can definitely see a stark contrast between 1976 and 2008 if you toggle back and forth between the two at the end of the slideshow. Here, for the sake of a reminding everyone, are the rules for reading the maps.]

This weekend I put together a few maps for a job talk and class lecture I'm doing later this week on frontloading and thought I'd share them with everyone. The slideshow below has the states color-coded based on the month in which their delegate selection event occurred in the elections from 1976-2008. You'll see that some states are divided with two separate colors in some years. That reflects the different dates on which Democratic and Republican states held (in most cases) their respective caucuses. Though there are states that had primaries for one party and caucuses for the other. In those instances where the state is divided, the left half color corresponds to the Democratic contest date and the right color, the Republicans'.

Recent Posts:
Presidential Primary and Caucus Dates Over Time (Take 1)

New Jersey in 2012

Out of Committee and On to the Floor: Back to May for the Arkansas Presidential Primary

Presidential Primary and Caucus Dates Over Time (Take 1)

NOTE: For an updated version (with better color-coding) please see here and for the full calendars in each of these election years, please see the left sidebar.

This weekend I put together a few maps for a job talk and class lecture I'm doing later this week on frontloading and thought I'd share them with everyone. The slideshow below has the states color-coded based on the month in which their delegate selection event occurred in the elections from 1976-2008. You'll see that some states are divided with two separate colors in some years. That reflects the different dates on which Democratic and Republican states held (in most cases) their respective caucuses. Though there are states that had primaries for one party and caucuses for the other. In those instances where the state is divided, the left half color corresponds to the Democratic contest date and the right color, the Republicans'.

View Album

Get your own

When I get a chance, I'll post these in one of the sidebars so that they'll constantly be there for easy access.


Recent Posts:
New Jersey in 2012

Out of Committee and On to the Floor: Back to May for the Arkansas Presidential Primary

Illinois in 2012

New Jersey in 2012

You have now entered the speculative zone. Oklahoma and Illinois were one thing, but this is quite another. FHQ finds it helpful to do exercises in hypotheticals from time to time, but this one may be a stretch. Yet, when I came across this discussion about New Jersey's 2009 governor's race, it triggered a memory of a recent addition to the law governing the Garden state's presidential primary.

Now bear with me here...

The bill (A3186) keeps the date of the now separate presidential primary on the same first-Tuesday-in-February date, but now allows for the secretary of state to shift the date should it coincide with a "period of religious observance" that imposes "a substantial burden on an individual's ability to vote."

Now, I'm not sure about what religious observances may pop up during the first week in Tuesday in February 2012. And I certainly don't see the state of New Jersey being motivated to shift its presidential primary again, especially since just the Republican nomination will be at stake. But what if New Jersey Republicans were able to unseat Democratic Governor Jon Corzine? It isn't likely to happen if you listen to the folks over at Daily Kos, but the catch here is that the office of secretary of state in New Jersey is not an elective office. It is a position appointed by the governor. If that governor was a Republican would the administration be motivated to move the primary forward -- likely in violation of either parties' rules -- thus challenging the language of the new law?

Yeah, I didn't think it was likely either. New Jersey would be a nice medium to large chunk of delegates for one well-positioned candidate after New Hampshire, though. It is a winner-take-all primary after all.

We'll see. My bet is that Arkansas moves back to May over New Jersey ultimately pulling the trigger on this scheme.


Recent Posts:
Out of Committee and On to the Floor: Back to May for the Arkansas Presidential Primary

Illinois in 2012

Inauguration Day

Out of Committee and On to the Floor: Back to May for the Arkansas Presidential Primary

The bill to move the Arkansas presidential primary back to May in 2012 has passed the House State Agencies and Governmental Affairs Committee and now moves to the floor for a vote. HB 1021 would move the presidential primary back to coincide with the primaries for state and local offices usually held in late May. After getting lost in the shuffle in 2008, Arkansas is making the move largely as a cost-saving measure. The bill has had bi-partisan support and Democratic Governor Mike Bebee has already signaled that he would sign the bill into law should it reach his desk.

Quick four years ago, Arkansas once again will be among the first to reposition with the 2012 presidential primary season in mind.


Recent Posts:
Illinois in 2012

Inauguration Day

Oklahoma in 2012

Illinois in 2012

Yesterday we took a glance at the prospects for presidential primary change in 2012 in Oklahoma. Today FHQ shifts the focus northward to the newly inaugurated president's home state of Illinois. While the Sooner state has a new bill before its legislature to place more of the financial burden of the conducting the state's presidential primary to the parties, Illinois is taking the Arkansas approach (potentially moving to a later date) but for different reasons. The experiment in Arkansas was one in which the presidential primary was not only moved but split off from the Natural state's primaries for state and local offices. Illinois opted instead to move its all-everything primary from mid-March to the first week in February in 2008. That made for an extremely early congressional primary (and lengthy general election campaign).

But State Senator Dale Rissinger has introduced legislation to move everything the primaries for state and local offices back in 2012 (SB46). No, not back into March as in 2004, but all the way back to June at the end of the process. In Arkansas the frontloading move was a failure both financially and from an influence standpoint, but in Illinois, the delegate boost the state legislature foresaw the state's primary potentially handing its native son actually came to pass. Obama needed those delegates on Super Tuesday to stay even with the delegate advantages Hillary Clinton was getting in places like New York and California during the onslaught of delegate selection events on February 5.

[Editor's note: The following was a hypothetical scenario analysis included when it looked as if this bill included the presidential primary in the move to June as well. This bill however, simply moves the primaries for state and local offices while leaving the presidential primary in February.]

And it is interesting that Republicans on the state legislative level are pushing these plans forward. In Arkansas there doesn't appear to be any ulterior motive, but in Illinois [It is Illinois after all.] a scenario can be envisioned where a vulnerable President Obama gets a primary challenge and doesn't have a home state to lean on with it falling at the tail end of primary season. [Consider, for example, President Carter's administration in the lead up to 1980 persuading Georgia and Alabama to move up to where Florida was in 1976 to counteract the likely boost Ted Kennedy would have gotten in the northeastern primaries in New Hampshire and Massachusetts. It has happened.] Is that likely? Probably not, especially if the Democrats want to have any hope of winning a general election under such circumstances. But that's something to keep tabs on as this bill navigates the Illinois senate.

Tomorrow: New Jersey.


Recent Posts:
Inauguration Day

Oklahoma in 2012

End of Unannounced/Unintended Hiatus

Inauguration Day

I would be remiss if I didn't say at least something of the day the United States just encountered. FHQ often focuses on the means, but today was about ends. Today was one of those days where the means come to their ends; a day where campaigns and elections come to fruition.

Everyone can hope on day one, but the real work begins tomorrow.

...and no, I don't necessarily mean on initial re-election efforts. Well, 2012 is in the back of my mind, I suppose.


Recent Posts:
Oklahoma in 2012

End of Unannounced/Unintended Hiatus

A One State Presidential Election in 2012?

Oklahoma in 2012

The bills regarding the presidential primaries of 2012 are already starting to be filed in several state legislatures across the country. Arkansas has been talking for almost a year about moving its newly established presidential primary from February back to May to coincide with its primaries for state and local offices. But now several states are starting to look at not only the timing of these contests but other issues as well. This week we'll look at three such states: Oklahoma, Illinois and New Jersey.

One thing we can say about states that attempt to move so early in the process is that they often aren't successful. Between 2000 and 2002, for instance, there were 26 bills before state legislatures that would have changed the timing of those states' delegate selection events, but only one was successful according to the National Conference of State Legislatures. In 2003, though, there were 23 bills, of which, eight passed. One out of every three bill proposed passing in the year before the primaries are to be conducted is far better than the one in twenty-six chance the bills prior to 2003 had. The period between 2004 and 2008 was much the same. There was an unusual amount of successful early action, but it paled in comparison to all the movement that was witnessed in 2007. In other words, this is a long way of saying that you have to take much of this legislative action with a grain of salt (...and New Jersey hasn't even had any legislative action. In fact, much of the story on New Jersey is simply speculative at this point. There's a bit of a quirk in the law the legislature passed last year refining the timing of the presidential primary there. I'll get to that later, however.). What we do have are three interesting situations in three different states that are worth talking about.

In the Sooner state, the bill that has been filed does not deal with the timing of the state's presidential primary in 2012. The primary will still be held on the first Tuesday in February (February 7, 2012). Instead, HB 1340, sponsored by Republican Rep. Charles Key, would shift the financial burden for carrying out the primary from the state to the political parties that desire to be included on the ballot. This would put Oklahoma in a situation that is the opposite of the system that emerged in South Carolina for the 2008 cycle. South Carolina, for years has held either a party-run caucus or primary for allocating national party delegates for the purposes of presidential nominations. The parties were charged with footing the bill(s) for the contest(s). Prior to 2008, though, the South Carolina legislature passed and then overrode a gubernatorial veto to grant the state power to conduct presidential primary elections, but to also have them foot the bill. The parties maintained the ability to set the date of the election, though, to ensure that South Carolina remained the earliest primary in the South.

If, however, this bill is to pass the Oklahoma legislature and be signed into law (Republicans control both the House and the Senate in the legislature, but Democratic Governor Brad Henry may have something to say about whether the bill becomes a law.), Oklahoma could establish a model for other states to follow in these increasingly difficult economic times. The state in essence is saying, "We'll run the show, but only if you put up the money." [Alternately, South Carolina said, "We'll run the show and take the bill, but you [the parties] set the date."] And that certainly makes sense in a state where the presidential primaries and the primaries for state and local offices are separate. The presidential primary is a matter of party business and not necessarily in the domain of the states. State legislatures having control of presidential primaries in most states is simply a function of the fallout from the McGovern-Fraser reforms that were put in place in 1972. States had to come into compliance with the new rules and in most cases, the easiest way to accomplish that was to combine it with the primary elections for state and local offices -- a decision controlled by the state legislatures.

If, then, Oklahoma pulls the trigger on this bill, the example would certainly be set for other states to follow suit. Again, though, there would potentially be some variation in terms of how able states are in following the Sooner state's lead. States like Oklahoma, where the presidential primary is a separate election, would likely find it easier to pull this off than in states like North Carolina or Indiana or Texas where every elective office at stake has a primary on the same day. I suppose the latter states could simple call for parties to assist in paying the costs of the primary. And in the end, that is all HB 1340 in Oklahoma is asking, not for the parties to take on all the costs, but to take on most of them. The level would just potentially be lower in the states with concurrent primaries for president and state and local offices.

This bill, though, is certainly worth tracking.

I'll be back tomorrow with a look at the situation in Illinois for 2012. And I suppose that is fitting on the day the Land of Lincoln sees its favorite son inaugurated as the 44th president of the United States.


Recent Posts:
End of Unannounced/Unintended Hiatus

A One State Presidential Election in 2012?

A Projected 2012 Electoral College Map (version 2.0)

End of Unannounced/Unintended Hiatus

Well, 2009 has been a whirlwind thus far for me. I spent the first week of the year putting the final touches on my classes for this semester and preparing for the Southern Political Science Association's meeting in New Orleans. And this past week I've had some things start moving for me on the job front. [Always a good sign in a horrible year on the political science job market.]

Anyway, there has been some chatter in a few states regarding their 2012 presidential primaries of late and I'd like to take them all one-by-one in the coming days to discuss the particulars and the potential for an overall trend between 2008 and 2012. Plus, I'd like to make a few comments about the paper I put together for the aforementioned SPSA meeting. Believe it or not it is frontloading-related. And finally, the race for the chair of the GOP is heating up. If I get a chance to get around to it, I'd like to put some stuff together on this as well.

In the meantime, let me point you all in the direction of a couple of interesting links:
1) The Monkey Cage this past week has had a dialog going between their regular contributors and the authors of several pieces on the 2008 election that have appeared in the latest edition of The Forum. The original post is linked above and you can follow the rest of the discussion in their archives. Some good stuff.

2) Princeton political scientist, Nolan McCarty, has started a blog and has had some interesting material so far. He and Rose Razaghian had a paper in the American Journal of Political Science about a decade ago concerning advice and consent within the Senate during the confirmations of presidential nominees (cabinet-level and lower positions). So I keep waiting for him to weigh in on some of the confirmation battles. Whether he does or doesn't is immaterial. The posts are worth a look and the blog is worth tracking.

Recent Posts:
A One State Presidential Election in 2012?

A Projected 2012 Electoral College Map (version 2.0)

The Race for RNC Chair