Showing posts with label Oklahoma. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Oklahoma. Show all posts

Friday, October 23, 2020

The Electoral College Map (10/23/20)

Update for October 23.


The work week ends with debate season now in the rearview mirror and just 11 days until the voting phase of the 2020 presidential election concludes. And while Friday saw a slowing down of the pace of polling releases witnessed over the last three days, it was still a fairly busy day with 13 new surveys from 10 states representing all but the Strong Biden category. Despite the new data, the race ends the work week where it began with Georgia on the Biden side of the partisan line and a sizable projected advantage in the electoral vote tally.

On to the polls... 


Polling Quick Hits:
Arizona
(Biden 46, Trump 46)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +2.97]
Susquehanna has fielded some of the most Trump-friendly polls in recent weeks and that was true of the firm's Arizona survey released today. Favorable (relative to other polling) to one candidate or not, this poll had both the president and Joe Biden losing support compared to the last Susquehanna poll there in September. But both polls have the race tied, so there was no net change in the race across those two surveys. And this latest one finds Trump in the core of his recent range of results in the Grand Canyon state while Biden lags toward the bottom end of his. 


Florida
(Biden 49, Trump 47 via St. Pete Polls | Trump 50, Biden 46 via Pulse Opinion Research)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +3.27]
It was a choose one's own narrative in a pair of Florida polls released today. Like the Susquehanna poll of Arizona, the St. Pete Polls survey showed the same two point margin as the pollster's survey a week and a half ago and was, in fact, unchanged in that time. Yet, the steady picture painted by that poll was not the same one as in the Pulse Opinion Research survey. It was the firm's first poll of the Sunshine state in 2020 and stands out from other recent polls there. Trump has never led a Florida survey this year by more than four points and has only hit or surpassed 50 percent in six of the 98 polls that have been conducted in Florida in calendar 2020. That obviously puts Trump at the ver top of his range in all of Florida polling as Biden ended up far closer to the low end of his. Of the two polls, the St. Pete poll is more consistent with the current FHQ averages which project a 49-45 (rounded) Biden edge. 


Iowa
(Trump 47, Biden 47)
[Current FHQ margin: Trump +0.70]
An unusually busy polling week in Iowa ends with an update to the July RMG Research poll. While that summer survey had the president up one, it also found both candidates around 40 percent. However, both are consistent (in terms of their margins) with where the race for the Hawkeye state's six electoral votes currently is. Of the ten October polls, four have had the race tied and six of those ten have found Iowa within a point (or less). But Biden had the advantage in three of the remaining four polls that had a margin greater than one. That is why Iowa has moved in Biden's direction. 


Michigan
(Biden 48, Trump 39 via EPIC-MRA | Trump 49, Biden 45 via Zia Poll)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +7.00]
Back over in Michigan, the new Zia Poll matches Trump's largest lead in the Great Lakes state, matching a July Spry Strategies poll. But recall the Michigan discussion from yesterday with respect to the Trafalgar surveys there. This is just Trump's eighth lead in 114 polls conducted in Michigan in 2020. Compared to all the other polls, this one is an outlier. And like that St. Pete poll of Florida above the EPIC-MRA poll mirrors the one the firm put out last week. EPIC remains closer on the Biden number, but below where both candidates are in the FHQ averages (Biden 50-43 currently). 


Montana
(Trump 49, Biden 43)
[Current FHQ margin: Trump +8.40]
For the second consecutive day, there is a new poll out Montana. Yes, the Treasure state arguably remains comfortably red, but the update to the Siena/NYT Upshot series, like the Strategies 360 poll a day ago, has the gap between the two major party candidates below ten percent. What's more, Siena for the second straight poll has found Trump under 50 percent, but doesn't really mark much of a change since September. Biden did bump up a point to come more in line with his FHQ average share of support there. Comfortably red or not, Montana has had an above average shift from the 20 point margin the president enjoyed there in 2016.


North Carolina
(Biden 48, Trump 44 via Meredith College | Biden 48, Trump 44 via Data for Progress)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +1.84]
The two polls of the Tar Heel state show exactly the same thing, but took different routes in getting to a 48-44 Biden advantage. The Meredith poll made the transition from a register to likely voter sample and ostensibly helped the former vice president in the process. Biden rose a couple of points and the president dropped one. But while the margin expanded in the Meredith series it contracted in the Data for Progress series of polls in North Carolina. Trump remained at 44 precent for the second time in October, but Biden slid back to around where he was in the firm's August poll of the state. Both candidates, it should be said, are operating in quite tight ranges in the DfP series. 


Oklahoma
(Trump 60, Biden 35) [August poll]
[Current FHQ margin: Trump +24.55]
Another day, another Sooner Poll from Oklahoma. This one is a bit outdated having been in the field there in August. But it like the other Sooner polls conducted this year has Trump hovering around 60 percent and Biden once again in the mid-30s. Its addition also does little to alter the margin in a state that is way off on the Republican end of the Spectrum below. Still, the margin in Oklahoma is much closer than it was just four years ago. That does not mean close, but there has been a shift toward the Democrats in that time. 


Pennsylvania
(Biden 51, Trump 44)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +5.40]
The trajectory of change in the Muhlenberg series of surveys of the Keystone state has gradually moved in Biden's direction over the course of the last eight plus months. A February tie was a 49-45 Biden advantage in August. And Biden rose again from the August to October polls as the president faded a little more. Overall, the shifts have brought the current Muhlenberg poll in line with FHQ average shares of support for the two major party candidates. As of now, the former vice president holds a 50-44 (rounded) lead here on a day that saw the margin in Pennsylvania tick up.


Utah
(Trump 50, Biden 38)
[Current FHQ margin: Trump +14.26]
There are some interesting dynamics at play in the polling of Utah this cycle. RMG Research and Y2 Analytics have been the most active pollsters in the Beehive state this cycle, but both started out with widely divergent numbers in polling the state. In the RMG Research series, Trump has hovered around the 50 percent mark all year as Biden has risen from the low 30s to the upper 30s now. Y2, on the other hand has until its last poll had the president below 50 percent and Biden cresting to a point above 40 percent, a level Democrats have not met in the state in years. Over time, however, the two pollsters have converged with Trump at or slightly above 50 percent and Biden approaching, but falling short of 40 percent (a bit above where Obama was in the state in 2008).


West Virginia
(Trump 58, Biden 38)
[Current FHQ margin: Trump +25.98]
Finally, something may be brewing in West Virginia (or it could be that one pollster's work among a general lack of polling in that state in 2020 is somewhat deceptive). But Triton Polling and Research in its second consecutive poll has found Trump under 60 percent in the Mountain state. That is actually the third poll in a row -- including both Triton surveys -- to show that. If those latest three surveys are in any way indicative of the state of the race in West Virginia, then that would translate to Trump losing around ten points from 2016 to polling now. And that would also mean Biden moving nearly 12 points beyond where Clinton end up four years ago. That would make for a massive shift. Even if the polls are understating the president's support and it is accurate on the increased Biden support, then that Democratic side of swing equation alone would be an above average overall swing compared to the (averaged) nationwide shift in 2020 polling from election day 2016. But as it stands, including earlier, albeit discounted, polls the margin is still around Trump +26.


NOTE: 


The Electoral College Spectrum1
DC-3
VT-3
(6)2
IL-20
(162)
WI-10
(253)
AK-3
(125)
TN-11
(60)
MA-11
(17)
OR-7
(169)
PA-203
(273 | 285)
MO-10
(122)
KY-8
(49)
MD-10
(27)
NJ-14
(183)
NV-6
(279 | 265)
SC -9
(112)
AL-9
(41)
HI-4
(31)
ME-2
(185)
FL-29
(308 | 259)
NE CD1-1
MT-3
(103)
SD-3
(32)
NY-29
(60)
CO-9
(194)
AZ-11
(319 | 230)
KS-6
(99)
ID-4
(29)
CA-55
(115)
VA-13
(207)
NC-15
ME CD2-1
(335 | 219)
NE-2
(93)
AR-6
(25)
DE-3
(118)
NH-4
(211)
GA-16
(351 | 203)
IN-11
(91)
OK-7
(19)
WA-12
(130)
NM-5
(216)
OH-18
(187)
UT-6
(80)
ND-3
(12)
ME CD1-1
CT-7
(138)
MN-10
(226)
IA-6
(169)
MS-6
(74)
WV-5
(9)
RI-4
(142)
NE CD2-1
MI-16
(243)
TX-38
(163)
LA-8
(68)
WY-3
NE CD3-1
(4)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.

2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Pennsylvania (Biden's toss up states plus the Pennsylvania), he would have 285 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Biden's number is on the left and Trump's is on the right in bold italics.

3 Pennsylvania
 is the state where Biden crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election, the tipping point state. The tipping point cell is shaded in yellow to denote that and the font color is adjusted to attempt to reflect the category in which the state is.

Today was another day in which the map and Watch List remained unchanged from a day ago. But the Electoral College Spectrum saw one small change way off on the Republican end. The new, "tight" survey in West Virginia lowered the average margin in the Mountain state enough to push it one spot toward the partisan line and past North Dakota. No, that change makes no real difference in the grand scheme of things, but it is a slight change nonetheless. 

Overall, this was a mostly good polling day for Biden. The average margins in six of the ten states with newly added polls moved in his direction. But two states in the Biden column and close to the partisan line -- Arizona and Florida -- shifted slightly away from the former vice president. But in reality, it was a mostly status quo maintaining day. 

11 days to go.


Where things stood at FHQ on October 23 (or close to it) in...
2016
2012
2008


--
NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Biden and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.

The Watch List1
State
Potential Switch
Georgia
from Toss Up Biden
to Toss Up Trump
Iowa
from Toss Up Trump
to Toss Up Biden
Nevada
from Toss Up Biden
to Lean Biden
New Hampshire
from Strong Biden
to Lean Biden
New Mexico
from Strong Biden
to Lean Biden
Ohio
from Toss Up Trump
to Toss Up Biden
Pennsylvania
from Lean Biden
to Toss Up Biden
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

--
Methodological Note: In past years, FHQ has tried some different ways of dealing with states with no polls or just one poll in the early rounds of these projections. It does help that the least polled states are often the least competitive. The only shortcoming is that those states may be a little off in the order in the Spectrum. In earlier cycles, a simple average of the state's three previous cycles has been used. But in 2016, FHQ strayed from that and constructed an average swing from 2012 to 2016 that was applied to states. That method, however, did little to prevent anomalies like the Kansas poll that had Clinton ahead from biasing the averages. In 2016, the early average swing in the aggregate was  too small to make much difference anyway. For 2020, FHQ has utilized an average swing among states that were around a little polled state in the rank ordering on election day in 2016. If there is just one poll in Delaware in 2020, for example, then maybe it is reasonable to account for what the comparatively greater amount of polling tells us about the changes in Connecticut, New Jersey and New Mexico. Or perhaps the polling in Iowa, Mississippi and South Carolina so far tells us a bit about what may be happening in Alaska where no public polling has been released. That will hopefully work a bit better than the overall average that may end up a bit more muted.


--
Related posts:




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Thursday, October 22, 2020

The Electoral College Map (10/22/20)

Update for October 22.


Changes (October 22)
StateBeforeAfter
Georgia
Toss Up Trump
Toss Up Biden
Thursday was another one of those days. First, it is the day of the final presidential debate of the 2020 cycle, a little less than two weeks out from election day. But it was also another day with a massive batch of new polling data. And it was shaping up that way before the clock struck midnight to close Wednesday. FHQ added nine surveys to the dataset after yesterday's update posted but before the end of the day and then tacked on another 28 throughout the day on Thursday. 

Overall, it was a mixed bag in those 37 new polls across 17 states. The FHQ margin in eight of those states moved in the president's direction while Biden gained ground in the remaining nine. Curiously, the former vice president made most of his gains in red states. Of the seven red states represented in the surveys added today, only Ohio moved a hair in Trump's favor (while continuing to be on the Watch List). The rest, led by Georgia, shifted toward the Democratic nominee. And the Peach state, on the weight of a couple of new polls once again jumped the partisan line back onto Biden turf. 

With the former vice president chipping away at margins in red states, Trump was doing the same in blue states. Of the ten blues states with surveys added today, seven of them saw their margins shrink, benefitting the president. But Biden increased his leads in Colorado, Florida and Wisconsin. Again, it was a mixed bag, but the small shifts in each of these states were likely most significant in Arizona, where the margin in on the verge of slipping under Biden +3, and in Ohio where a couple of new surveys nudged the Buckeye a bit further away from the partisan line. 

Anyway, on to the polls... 


Polling Quick Hits:
Arizona
(Biden 50, Trump 46)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +3.02]
It was not the update to the Ipsos series of surveys that triggered that downward movement in the margin in the Grand Canyon state. Instead, it was the Morning Consult survey (Trump +1, see below) showing the president in a rare lead in Arizona that drew the margin there closer. That Ipsos poll actually had Biden stretching his advantage, doubling it since last week and hitting 50 percent in the process. The poll also represented the widest margin in the series thus far. But again, that Morning Consult survey served as an overall drag on any gains there. 


California
(Biden 58, Trump 32)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +29.07]
While the margin ticked down some in California, it is hardly something that is going to change the trajectory of the race for the largest electoral vote prize on the board. The new PPIC survey found Biden both under 60 percent and with a lead less than 30 points. The former is rare in 2020 but the former vice president has only led by 30 or more in a third of the California surveys conducted this year. But since the last PPIC survey last month, the margin has contracted some with Biden slipping under 60 percent and Trump inching up a point. In the grand scheme of things that really is not that big a change, and this poll well within the normal range of Golden state surveys. 


Florida
(Biden 51, Trump 46)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +3.40]
If the Morning Consult survey in Arizona was a drag on the overall margin there, then the firm's Florida survey along with the new Ipsos update moved the needle in Biden's direction today. Both had the former vice president up by more than five points, and both also had the Democratic nominee up a point compared to the previous polls in both series and the president down a point. The effect was a widening of the margin in the Sunshine state, a move that has pushed Biden closer to an average share in the 50 percent range (albeit still short of that mark). And the last five surveys there have now found the former vice president at or above 50 percent. Florida is a must have in any likely Trump path to 270, and Biden closing in on the majority mark there is an ominous sign. 


Georgia
(Biden 51, Trump 44)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +0.15]
Another state that had both a Morning Consult poll and an additional survey from a different pollster was Georgia. And it is probably the tie in the Morning Consult survey that is closer to the mark in the Peach state. The latest from Garin-Hart-Yang is at the top end of the range of Biden-friendly surveys, matching the seven point spread in the recent Quinnipiac survey of the state. Both of those polls also had Biden north of 50 percent, a rarity in Georgia, but not something that does not and has not happened in polling there this year. And it is new in the G-H-Y series. Biden's advantage in the Democratic pollster's July poll of Georgia also had Biden out to a lead (47-43) which was the extreme Biden end of the spectrum of poll results there at the time. The new poll, however, is not alone on that end this time. 


Kansas
(Trump 48, Biden 41)
[Current FHQ margin: Trump +8.94]
After a couple of new surveys came out of the Sunflower state a day ago, Siena/NYT Upshot added another new one in Kansas today. And while the pair yesterday both found the president up double digits there, the Siena survey was more in line with the established Kansas margin here at FHQ. However, it also found both candidates lagging behind their average shares in the state by two to three points. That remains something of an issue with these Siena polls as election day approaches. They all tend to have higher than normal shares of undecideds and support for minor party candidates than many other polls. That is true here as well. This is just the third time in a Kansas poll this year that Trump has been below 50 percent there. Things are closer in the Sunflower state in 2020 than in 2016, but the president has maintained a share above 50 percent the whole time. 


Michigan
(Biden 50, Trump 43 via Public Policy Polling | Biden 52, Trump 40 via Fox News | Trump 47, Biden 45 via Trafalgar Group | Biden 50, Trump 45 via Data for Progress)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +7.11]
One of these new polls out in Michigan does not look like the other. And, as is often the case, it is the Trafalgar survey that stands out. Of the 112 surveys that have now been conducted in the Great Lakes state in calendar 2020, Trump has led in just seven of them. Four of those seven were surveys fielded by Trafalgar and the latest matches the president's largest lead in a Michigan poll all year. The other polls saw Biden expand his advantages since the last polls in the series with the exception of the Data for Progress survey where Trump rose a point from September. But all three are in range of recent polling in the state even if the Fox survey is at the very bottom of Trump's range in recent surveys.


Minnesota
(Biden 48, Trump 42)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +8.30]
The latest update from Survey USA in Minnesota was probably more notable for how close the Senate race was than for the presidential race. This was a good sample for Republicans. Biden remained in the upper 40s but the president managed to push off the 40 percent mark where he had been in the previous two Survey USA polls of the Land of 10,000 Lakes. But this was the second straight from the firm in the state that saw the margin dip a little. For a state that was originally cited as a potential flip possibility by the president's reelection campaign, however, Minnesota remains a Lean Biden state and a Biden +6 is a pretty good survey for the president. 


Montana
(Trump 51, Biden 43)
[Current FHQ margin: Trump +8.56]
The first Strategies 360 poll in Montana this cycle is really quite close to the shares of support (and margin for that matter) both candidates have established in polling in the Treasure state thus far this year. At 52-43 (rounded), the president holds an edge, but one that like most red states is closer than it was in 2016. Trump is still around four points behind his 2016 pace while Biden has improved in polls on Clinton's showing on election day by more than eight points. It is an above average swing that this survey affirms. 


North Carolina
(Trump 49, Biden 48)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +1.78]
There is not a whole lot one can say about this latest Pulse Opinion Research survey of North Carolina. Trump leads in the Tar Heel state have become more sporadic of late, and as this one does show a narrow advantage for the president, it represents no change from the firm's September poll in the state. In fact, all three surveys Pulse has conduced in North Carolina have had the president up by a point. It would be one thing if things were moving toward Trump in the series but absent any movement, this is yet more evidence of just how steady the race is in the state. 


Ohio
(Trump 48, Biden 45)
[Current FHQ margin: Trump +0.67]
That Pulse Opinion Research poll in North Carolina may not have shown any movement in the president's direction, but one piece of good news for Trump in the batch of polling released today was the swing from the last Fox News survey of the Buckeye state to its update there. Trump rose three points since the late September Fox poll of Ohio, but Biden dropped off by five points in the same span. As bad as the Fox Michigan poll was for the president, this Ohio survey represents the other end of the spectrum. And it is more consistent with the 47-46 (rounded) advantage Trump maintains in the FHQ averages in the state. 


Oklahoma
(Trump 59, Biden 37)
[Current FHQ margin: Trump +24.51]
Trump is going to win Oklahoma going away next month, but it continues to be a warning sign every time a new survey is released with the president under 60 percent there. That is the case in the new Sooner Poll. The president continues to run more than five points off his 2016 performance in 2020 Oklahoma polls with an average share that is just under 60 percent. Biden, meanwhile, is more than six points ahead of Clinton's pace there. It will not amount too much. Trump will still take the Sooner state's seven electoral votes, but the state remains a cautionary tale about how much things have swung toward the Democrats in 2020.


Pennsylvania
(Biden 51, Trump 46 via Public Policy Polling | Biden 52, Trump 46 via Civiqs)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +5.38]
This is just the second survey PPP has conducted in Pennsylvania in all of 2020 and it is not markedly different from the 51-44 lead that the former vice president held there in April. The gap has closed some but not much and Biden is stationary above 50 percent. Civiqs has been more active in the state, but only now dumped a six survey series that has run from February to now. The latest numbers are posted above with a link to all six polls, but for the purposes of keeping this brief, FHQ will focus on the change from the last poll in June to now. Contrary to the PPP series, it was the president who was stationary at 46 percent from that June poll to now as Biden added three points and pushed above 50 percent. Like a number of other blue states of the medium shade, the polls with Biden over 50 percent are starting to pile up. 

 
Virginia
(Biden 52, Trump 41)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +11.82]
Like the Montana poll above, the new WaPo/George Mason survey of Virginia is also the first poll the firm has fielded in the state this cycle. It is also in line with the average shares both candidates have maintained in the Old Dominion through much of the year. Currently at FHQ, Biden has a 53-41 (rounded) lead in the commonwealth. And while that is a considerably wider margin than one might expect for a state that was a battleground for many of the 21st century presidential cycles, it has had a below average shift in the 2020 polls compared to the results in 2016. Biden is just two points out in from of Clinton's showing and Trump lags around his average amount -- roughly three points -- behind his performance there four years ago. Together, even that makes Virginia a surprising Strong Biden state,


Wisconsin
(Biden 48, Trump 44 via Fox News | Biden 50, Trump 44 via RMG Research)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +6.19]
The new RMG Research survey of Wisconsin is its first in the Badger state in 2020 and falls in line with the established averages in the state. The race currently stands at 49-43 (rounded) with Biden ahead. So it was not that poll that shifted the average margin in Wisconsin up on the day. It was not the Fox News poll either, where the former vice president saw his 50-42 lead from the early September Fox poll cut in half in that time. As was the case with Arizona at the outset, it was the Morning Consult poll (Biden +12, see below) that did the heavy lifting, nudging the Democratic nominee's share of support closer to 50 percent. But for all the back and forth among just these three polls, Wisconsin remains in that Biden +6 range as it has for quite a while now. 



South Carolina: 
Trump 51, Biden 45 (Biden +3, Trump -3 since early October wave[Current FHQ margin: Trump +6.71]

Ohio: 
Trump 49, Biden 47 (Biden +1, Trump +/-0)

Arizona: 
Trump 48, Biden 47 (Biden -2, Trump +2)

Georgia: 
Biden 48, Trump 48 (Biden +1, Trump -1)

Texas: 
Biden 48, Trump 47 (Biden +1, Trump -2) [Current FHQ margin: Trump +1.51]

North Carolina: 
Biden 50, Trump 47 (Biden +/-0, Trump +1)

Florida: 
Biden 52, Trump 45 (Biden +1, Trump -1)

Michigan: 
Biden 52, Trump 44 (Biden +1, Trump +/-0)

Pennsylvania: 
Biden 52, Trump 43 (Biden +/-0, Trump -1)

Minnesota: 
Biden 51, Trump 42 (Biden +1, Trump -2)

Wisconsin: 
Biden 54, Trump 42 (Biden +3, Trump -2)

Colorado: 
Biden 55, Trump 39 (Biden +1, Trump -1) [Current FHQ margin: Biden +12.87]

FHQ will be brief with this latest wave of Morning Consult polls from an extended group of battleground states (Senate and/or presidential). The big thing is that ten of the 12 states moved in Biden's direction in the last week. Even with Arizona standing out as one that moved toward Trump, the Grand Canyon state continues to be in the Biden column. But looking at this group in sequence from the most Trump to the most Biden (as it is aligned above), the order is off from that depicted in the Electoral College Spectrum below. Arizona and Wisconsin are probably the most of sequence and on opposite ends of this truncated rank ordering from Morning Consult. That said, that Biden is at or above 50 percent in seven of these states -- states that would put him well above 270 electoral votes even without Arizona -- is the most notable aspect of this updated wave. 



The Electoral College Spectrum1
DC-3
VT-3
(6)2
IL-20
(162)
WI-10
(253)
AK-3
(125)
TN-11
(60)
MA-11
(17)
OR-7
(169)
PA-203
(273 | 285)
MO-10
(122)
KY-8
(49)
MD-10
(27)
NJ-14
(183)
NV-6
(279 | 265)
SC -9
(112)
AL-9
(41)
HI-4
(31)
ME-2
(185)
FL-29
(308 | 259)
NE CD1-1
MT-3
(103)
SD-3
(32)
NY-29
(60)
CO-9
(194)
AZ-11
(319 | 230)
KS-6
(99)
ID-4
(29)
CA-55
(115)
VA-13
(207)
NC-15
ME CD2-1
(335 | 219)
NE-2
(93)
AR-6
(25)
DE-3
(118)
NH-4
(211)
GA-16
(351 | 203)
IN-11
(91)
OK-7
(19)
WA-12
(130)
NM-5
(216)
OH-18
(187)
UT-6
(80)
ND-3
(12)
ME CD1-1
CT-7
(138)
MN-10
(226)
IA-6
(169)
MS-6
(74)
WV-5
(9)
RI-4
(142)
NE CD2-1
MI-16
(243)
TX-38
(163)
LA-8
(68)
WY-3
NE CD3-1
(4)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.

2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Pennsylvania (Biden's toss up states plus the Pennsylvania), he would have 285 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Biden's number is on the left and Trump's is on the right in bold italics.

3 Pennsylvania
 is the state where Biden crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election, the tipping point state. The tipping point cell is shaded in yellow to denote that and the font color is adjusted to attempt to reflect the category in which the state is.

Obviously the Georgia change to Toss Up Biden looms large over things in today's update, but it change on the map and the Watch List did not translate into a move on the Spectrum. Yes, the Peach state hopped the partisan line and turned blue, but that is probably best described as the partisan line jumping Georgia. The Peach state changed colors but not positions in the order. Other than that, among the only other changes across the graphics today was California trading spots with New York on the Spectrum, moving a cell closer to the partisan line. And Kansas, a day after rejoining the Watch List came right back off it again, but only just barely. 

It is a pretty steady race. 12 days to go.


Where things stood at FHQ on October 22 (or close to it) in...
2016
2012
2008


--
NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Biden and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.

The Watch List1
State
Potential Switch
Georgia
from Toss Up Biden
to Toss Up Trump
Iowa
from Toss Up Trump
to Toss Up Biden
Nevada
from Toss Up Biden
to Lean Biden
New Hampshire
from Strong Biden
to Lean Biden
New Mexico
from Strong Biden
to Lean Biden
Ohio
from Toss Up Trump
to Toss Up Biden
Pennsylvania
from Lean Biden
to Toss Up Biden
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

--
Methodological Note: In past years, FHQ has tried some different ways of dealing with states with no polls or just one poll in the early rounds of these projections. It does help that the least polled states are often the least competitive. The only shortcoming is that those states may be a little off in the order in the Spectrum. In earlier cycles, a simple average of the state's three previous cycles has been used. But in 2016, FHQ strayed from that and constructed an average swing from 2012 to 2016 that was applied to states. That method, however, did little to prevent anomalies like the Kansas poll that had Clinton ahead from biasing the averages. In 2016, the early average swing in the aggregate was  too small to make much difference anyway. For 2020, FHQ has utilized an average swing among states that were around a little polled state in the rank ordering on election day in 2016. If there is just one poll in Delaware in 2020, for example, then maybe it is reasonable to account for what the comparatively greater amount of polling tells us about the changes in Connecticut, New Jersey and New Mexico. Or perhaps the polling in Iowa, Mississippi and South Carolina so far tells us a bit about what may be happening in Alaska where no public polling has been released. That will hopefully work a bit better than the overall average that may end up a bit more muted.


--
Related posts:




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Thursday, September 24, 2020

The Electoral College Map (9/24/20)

Update for September 24.


FHQ has said this a number of times this week, but there was a lot to look at today on the polling front: 19 surveys from 12 states. It was a mixture of the six core battleground states (sans Florida), the four Trump toss up states, and then a handful of states that are further out on the ends of the Spectrum that help to calibrate the average swing FHQ has been keeping tabs on from election day 2016 to 2020 general election polling. Currently sitting at Democrats +7.40, that average swing has ticked down a few notches in recent weeks. Once it was approaching eight points, but it topped out and has been receding some since Biden's summer surge that has subsequently regressed to the springtime mean. But that is another way -- the trajectory of average swing across states -- to measure narrowing in this race. So far, it suggests some tightening but not a whole lot.

On to the polls...


Polling Quick Hits:
Arizona
(Biden 49, Trump 47)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +3.47]
Data Orbital was last in the field in Arizona in June and little has changed. Biden continues to claim a two point advantage, but both candidates have peeled off some support from undecided/other in those three months. And that is not unexpected as election day nears. However, this survey does overstate both candidates' support relative to their established averages here at FHQ. That, too, should be expected on some level as election day grows closer.


Georgia
(Trump 45, Biden 45 via Siena/NYT Upshot | Trump 46, Biden 46 via Data for Progress)
[Current FHQ margin: Trump +0.40]
Over in the Peach state, both Siena and Data for Progress were in the field there for the first time in calendar 2020. And both found a tied race. That is now three poll releases over the last three days to have the race for the Georgia's 16 electoral votes knotted at somewhere in the mid-40s. The average margin continues to reflect that. FHQ now has basically tied at 46.


Iowa
(Biden 45, Trump 42 via Siena/NYT Upshot | Trump 49, Biden 46 via Monmouth)
[Current FHQ margin: Trump +0.36]
The polling in Iowa may be a bit more variable overall, but the bottom line is the same as it is in Georgia. Trump retains a slim advantage but it is tempered by the fact that the Siena and Monmouth polls released today showed three point leads. But it was one for each candidate. Biden was the more consistent of the two across both surveys, but even averaging the two polls comes out to a tie at 46 (rounded), which is in line with where the FHQ weighted averages currently have the contest in Iowa.


Kansas
(Trump 49, Biden 45)
[Current FHQ margin: Trump +7.36]
The aim at Data for Progress may have been to survey the Senate landscape in the four states covered today, but it is a bonus to get the presidential numbers in typically reliably red states like Kansas (and Kentucky below). Again that helps to better calibrate the extent of the swing from 2016 to 2020. This poll represents the closest the race has appeared in the Sunflower state's limited polling in 2020 and also Biden's peak there. With this survey incorporated, Biden is overperforming Clinton by a little more than six points while Trump is lagging an almost equivalent amount behind his 2016 pace in Kansas. However, this survey is more consistent with the FHQ average on Trump's share than Biden's. The former vice president is running about three points ahead of his average. Kansas will stay red in 2020, but it has drawn closer in the last four years, only the gap has closer at a rate greater than the average swing.


Kentucky
(Trump 56, Biden 38)
[Current FHQ margin: Trump +17.21]
The other deep red state poll from Data for Progress was conducted in Kentucky. There really were not any surprises here. Yes, the swing toward the Democrats from 2016 to 2020 is above average and nearly the same 12 points, but this survey is much more in line with the established average at FHQ: 55-38, Trump. No poll that on target is going to have much of an impact on the average. And this one did not.


Michigan
(Trump 47, Biden 46 via Trafalgar Group | Biden 51, Trump 45 via YouGov | Biden 50, Trump 44 via Data for Progress)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +7.23]
One of these Michigan polls released today does not look like the others. One of these polls is more divergent from the established average margin there than the others. And it is not that Trafalgar missed on one candidate's share and was consistent on the other. It had Trump five points ahead of his average and Biden three points behind his. But then again, this poll is in line with the two other Trafalgar polls in Michigan. The story there is stability even if that series strays from where other pollsters have the race there. Both candidates were above their average shares in the Great Lakes state in the other two polls, but again, one should expect that as election day approaches and undecideds come off the board. But Biden gained more than Trump did -- twice as much -- in the YouGov poll over the firm's last collaboration with the University of Wisconsin at the beginning of August.


Ohio
(Biden 48, Trump 47)
[Current FHQ margin: Trump +0.26]
The same change that marked the story in the Michigan series from YouGov above is true of the latest Quinnipiac survey of Ohio. Biden continued to cling to a one point edge -- just as was the case in June Q-poll -- but both candidates saw their share of support modestly increase over the last three months. As is the case in both Georgia and Iowa, FHQ has the battle for the 18 electoral votes in the Buckeye state tied at 46. So this poll has both out in front of their average share but Biden by marginally more. The bottom line in Ohio is that it is close, representing a nearly eight point swing from 2016. And again, if the discussion about which states are the most competitive on election day includes Ohio, then Biden is in reasonably good shape unless the overall swing is not uniform everywhere.


Oklahoma
(Trump 55, Biden 33)
[Current FHQ margin: Trump +22.11]
What can one say about the situation in Oklahoma? Well, it remains comfortably red for the president. Furthermore, the margin in the Amber Integrated survey is consistent with the FHQ average margin in the Sooner state. Both candidates' support lagged in this poll behind the average share each has in the averages, but neither was by more than two points. This one is par for the course in Oklahoma. It is a safe state for Trump, but one where the swing has been well above average, nearly double it in fact.


Pennsylvania
(Biden 49, Trump 45 via YouGov | Biden 48, Trump 42 via Franklin & Marshall | Biden 50, Trump 45 via CPEC)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +5.08]
The trio of surveys out of the Keystone state today are all not far off of the averages here at FHQ, but there are some interesting notes in the two series from Franklin & Marshall and YouGov. The former has seen Biden's share tick down each month over the last three months, but Trump has remained stationary. And that is not the sort of trajectory that changes things around here all that much. It counters any notion of a narrowing race in Pennsylvania. But the YouGov trend line is different. Unlike the change across the YouGov series in Michigan, Biden lost some ground, but Trump gained, closing the gap, but not to a point as close as the one point Biden lead in the first poll in the sequence in February. This, then, is not a case of regressing to the springtime mean, not completely anyway.


Texas
(Trump 46, Biden 43 via Siena/NYT Upshot | Trump 50, Biden 45 via Quinnipiac)
[Current FHQ margin: Trump +1.19]
In the Lone Star state, Siena was in the field for their first poll of the season and found Trump up by a handful of points. Compared to the established averages there, both candidates run behind them in this survey, but Biden more than the president. But the Trump number is more in line with his range in recent polls. Biden's is not, and it is attributable to the more inflated undecided/other shares in this survey. Quinnipiac, on the other hand has now conducted three surveys in Texas in calendar 2020, but this is the first with a likely voter screen. Whereas the earlier registered polls showed a one point lead in one direction or the other, the transition to a likely voter sample has benefited Trump, pushing the president to 50 percent while Biden hovered around where he has been in the previous surveys. Texas remains close, but these polls pushed it off the Watch List below.


Virginia
(Biden 48, Trump 43)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +10.61]
The Christopher Newport surveys of Virginia in 2016 were all over the place, sometimes showing Clinton way up, but almost always with other candidates -- those not from either of the two major parties -- pulling in a hefty level of support that did not materialize on election day. That is not exactly the case with the first of the university's polls in 2020, but this one does stand out from all of the other surveys conducted in the commonwealth this year. And it is all about the margin. No poll of the Old Dominion has had Biden up by anything less than double digits since February. No poll has had Trump as high as 43 all year. And it has been since February that Biden has been below 50 percent in a Virginia poll. The tide may be turning there, or it could be that this poll is an outlier.


Wisconsin
(Biden 50, Trump 46)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +6.41]
Finally, the last of the blue wall YouGov polls in Wisconsin represents the latest in a series but also a transition from registered to likely voters. The two point Biden lead in February grew to six points in August, but has contracted in the month since with the switch to a likely voter screen. Both candidates gained in that time, but what Trump added was three times that of Biden's gain. But compared to other recent likely voter surveys of the Badger state, this one has Trump well ahead of where he has been elsewhere (and about three points ahead of his FHQ average). Biden crests above his average share as well, but only by a fraction of a point.


NOTE: A description of the methodology behind the graduated weighted average of 2020 state-level polling that FHQ uses for these projections can be found here.


The Electoral College Spectrum1
DC-3
MA-11
(14)2
CT-7
(162)
WI-10
(253)
AK-3
(125)
AL-9
(60)
HI-4
(18)
NJ-14
(176)
PA-203
(273 | 285)
SC-9
(122)
IN-11
(51)
CA-55
(73)
OR-7
(183)
NV-6
(279 | 265)
MO-10
(113)
UT-6
(40)
VT-3
(76)
NM-5
(188)
AZ-11
(290 | 259)
KS-6
(103)
KY-8
(34)
NY-29
(105)
ME-2
(190)
FL-29
ME CD2-1
(320 | 248)
MT-3
NE CD1-1
(97)
ID-4
(26)
WA-12
(117)
CO-9
(199)
NC-15
(335 | 218)
LA-8
(93)
ND-3
(22)
MD-10
ME CD1-1
(128)
VA-13
(212)
OH-18
(203)
MS-6
(85)
SD-3
(19)
IL-20
(148)
MN-10
(222)
IA-6
(185)
AR-6
(79)
OK-7
(16)
RI-4
(152)
MI-16
(238)
GA-16
(179)
NE-2
(73)
WV-5
(9)
DE-3
(155)
NE CD2-1
NH-4
(243)
TX-38
(163)
TN-11
(71)
WY-3
NE CD3-1
(4)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.

2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Pennsylvania (Biden's toss up states plus the Pennsylvania), he would have 285 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Biden's number is on the left and Trump's is on the right in bold italics.

3 Pennsylvania
 is the state where Biden crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election, the tipping point state. The tipping point cell is shaded in yellow to denote that and the font color is adjusted to attempt to reflect the category in which the state is.

Again, there was a lot to look at today and a fair number of changes to boot. No, none of those changes were to the colors any states affected are shaded on the map, but there was more shuffling on the Electoral College Spectrum and a couple of changes to the Watch List. Take the latter first. Texas moved off the list but only barely while Virginia on the weight of that outlier CNU poll pushed under the Biden +11 mark and thus inched within a fraction of a point of the 10 point line separating the Strong and Lean Biden categories.

Working from left to right on the Spectrum, Colorado and Virginia swapped spots with Virginia moving closer to the partisan line. Wisconsin moved back to the most competitive middle column, trading spots again with New Hampshire. One should also get used to constant shuffling among the three states that are Trump's first line of defense up against the partisan line. Georgia, Iowa and Ohio are just that close to one another. Today, Georgia and Iowa switched places and it was the Hawkeye state that shifted closer to the partisan line. Finally, the new poll of Kansas -- the smallest margin there are year -- moved the Sunflower state past Montana toward the partisan line separating the Trump states from Biden states. Overall, however, Pennsylvania remained in the middle of it all, the tipping point state five points out of Trump's grasp at the moment.



Where things stood at FHQ on September 24 (or close to it) in...
2016
2012
2008



--
NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Biden and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.

The Watch List1
State
Potential Switch
Arkansas
from Strong Trump
to Lean Trump
Georgia
from Toss Up Trump
to Toss Up Biden
Iowa
from Toss Up Trump
to Toss Up Biden
Louisiana
from Lean Trump
to Strong Trump
Mississippi
from Strong Trump
to Lean Trump
Nevada
from Toss Up Biden
to Lean Biden
Ohio
from Toss Up Trump
to Toss Up Biden
Pennsylvania
from Lean Biden
to Toss Up Biden
South Carolina
from Lean Trump
to Toss Up Trump
Virginia
from Strong Biden
to Lean Biden
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

--
Methodological Note: In past years, FHQ has tried some different ways of dealing with states with no polls or just one poll in the early rounds of these projections. It does help that the least polled states are often the least competitive. The only shortcoming is that those states may be a little off in the order in the Spectrum. In earlier cycles, a simple average of the state's three previous cycles has been used. But in 2016, FHQ strayed from that and constructed an average swing from 2012 to 2016 that was applied to states. That method, however, did little to prevent anomalies like the Kansas poll that had Clinton ahead from biasing the averages. In 2016, the early average swing in the aggregate was  too small to make much difference anyway. For 2020, FHQ has utilized an average swing among states that were around a little polled state in the rank ordering on election day in 2016. If there is just one poll in Delaware in 2020, for example, then maybe it is reasonable to account for what the comparatively greater amount of polling tells us about the changes in Connecticut, New Jersey and New Mexico. Or perhaps the polling in Iowa, Mississippi and South Carolina so far tells us a bit about what may be happening in Alaska where no public polling has been released. That will hopefully work a bit better than the overall average that may end up a bit more muted.


--
Related posts:
The Electoral College Map (9/23/20)

The Electoral College Map (9/22/20)

The Electoral College Map (9/21/20)


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