The Electoral College Map (10/30/08)

NOTE: In the interest of time over these next few days, I'm more inclined to give the daily map updates short shrift unless an definitive change in the dynamic of the race occurs. I am loath to go the "short post" route but I've got some really good stuff I'd like to get out ahead of election day. And no, I don't say that with any sort of arrogance. I've actually got some outside contributions that will add substantially to our home-stretch analysis here at FHQ.

• As I mentioned in yesterday's update and again in the comments to last night's live blog of the Obama infomercial, I've got a post ready on the potential impact of a November surprise. Scott's done the legwork on that and there are some pretty interesting findings there.
  
• Also, after bugging them all semester, Paul Gurian and Damon Cann have graciously given me the exclusive rights to bringing their presidential forecasting model to the blogosphere. Well, that makes it sound as if they were unwilling to share that with me. They weren't. Both have been on board with the concept for a while now; they've just been tweaking things in the model.
  

I'm going to get both up today at some point, so keep checking in throughout the day. Moving on...
-------------------------------------------------------
Another day, another 31 polls at which to look. Over the last few days, we have led off by talking about the polls in red. Well, if McCain is going to get back in this thing -- at least by our measure -- there are going to have to be some favorable polls for the Arizona senator. Sure, we can talk about Obama's continued lead in the polls throughout most of the toss up states, but that isn't as interesting as trying to strategically devise the ways in which the McCain campaign could make a race of it between now and Tuesday. And that starts with polling at least heading in his direction. On Wednesday, however, there wasn't any real indication that that sort of trend was emerging. There has been some tightening on the national level, but in the states that appear to be the decisive ones in 2008, there is little or no evidence that the national trend has extended or will extend to the state level.

New Polls (Oct. 29)
State	Poll	Margin
Alabama	Survey USA	+24
Alaska	Rasmussen	+16
Colorado	CNN	+8
Colorado	AP	+9
Delaware	Survey USA	+30
Florida	Quinnipiac	+2
Florida	CNN	+4
Florida	AP	+2
Georgia	CNN	+5
Indiana	Research 2000	0
Kansas	Survey USA	+21
Massachusetts	Survey USA	+17
Michigan	Rasmussen	+10
Minnesota	Rasmussen	+12
Missouri	CNN	+2
Nevada	AP	+12
Nevada	Research 2000	+5
New Hampshire	AP	+18
New Mexico	Rasmussen	+10
New York	Survey USA	+29
North Carolina	AP	+2
Ohio	Quinnipiac	+9
Ohio	CNN	+7
Ohio	Marist	+3
Pennsylvania	Quinnipiac	+12
Pennsylvania	AP	+12
Pennsylvania	Franklin & Marshall	+13
Pennsylvania	Marist	+14
Virginia	AP	+7
Virginia	CNN	+9
Wisconsin	Research 2000	+11

And that is a problem for the McCain campaign. The only poll the Arizona senator can hang his hat on following Wednesday's poll release, is that CNN poll that has him up 2 points in Missouri. And even that is a stretch since the Show-Me state has been hovering in the +/-2 point range for a week or more anyway. That is pretty much the message to take home from this collection of surveys. It is a par for the course day.

[Click Map to Enlarge]

If we focus on the states with two or more polls on Wednesday, then we see a number of states -- Colorado, Florida, Pennsylvania and Virginia -- where Obama's margins are strikingly consistent across polling firms. [It should be noted that the polls above for Florida make it look as though the Sunshine state is narrowing to some extent. That may be, but that may also be a function of the point at which polls were released. If the polls are arranged chronologically, the polls that were in the field most recently show Obama ahead by a four to seven point range.] But there are still other states where the picture isn't as clear. Obama is ahead, but the degree to which he leads hasn't solidified as it has in the former group. We see for example that while Obama is ahead in all five polls in both Nevada and Ohio, there is a difference of opinion as to how much he is actually ahead. Between the two polls in Nevada there is a seven point margin and in Ohio that distance is six points. Again, Obama is ahead, but these are states that may be difficult to read as we head into next Tuesday.

The Electoral College Spectrum*
HI-4 (7)**	ME-4 (157)	NH-4 (264/278)	MT-3 (160)	LA-9 (67)
VT-3 (10)	WA-11 (168)	CO-9*** (273/274)	WV-5 (157)	KY-8 (58)
NY-31 (41)	OR-7 (175)	VA-13 (286/265)	GA-15 (152)	TN-11 (50)
DE-3 (44)	NJ-15 (190)	NV-5 (291/252)	AZ-10 (137)	KS-6 (39)
IL-21 (65)	IA-7 (197)	OH-20 (311/247)	SD-3 (127)	NE-5 (33)
RI-4 (69)	MN-10 (207)	FL-27 (338/227)	MS-6 (124)	AL-9 (28)
MD-10 (79)	PA-21 (228)	MO-11 (349/200)	TX-34 (118)	WY-3 (19)
MA-12 (91)	WI-10 (238)	NC-15 (364/189)	AR-6 (84)	ID-4 (16)
CA-55 (146)	NM-5 (243)	IN-11 (375/174)	AK-3 (78)	OK-7 (12)
CT-7 (153)	MI-17 (260)	ND-3 (163)	SC-8 (75)	UT-5 (5)
*Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. **The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, McCain won all the states up to and including Colorado (all Obama's toss up states plus Colorado), he would have 274 electoral votes. Both candidates numbers are only totaled through their rival's toss up states. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and McCain's is on the right in italics. ***Colorado is the state where Obama crosses (or McCain would cross) the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. It is currently favoring Obama, thus the blue text in that cell.

There are some subtle changes to the Electoral College Spectrum -- there usually are -- but there's nothing groundbreaking in there. [Fine, Delaware shot up the far left column after that 30 point Survey USA margin.] And the map remains the same as it was a day ago. Obama still leads in the hypothetical electoral vote tally by a count of 338-200 and is safe in states totalling 286 electoral votes (strong and lean Obama states).

The Watch List*
State	Switch
Florida	from Toss Up Obama	to Toss Up McCain
Georgia	from Strong McCain	to McCain lean
Michigan	from Obama lean	to Strong Obama
Missouri	from Toss Up McCain	to Toss Up Obama
Nevada	from Toss Up Obama	to Obama lean
New Hampshire	from Obama lean	to Strong Obama
New Mexico	from Obama lean	to Strong Obama
Virginia	from Obama lean	to Toss Up Obama
*Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

Shifting to the Watch List, Colorado departs, having moved into a firmer position within the Obama lean category. However, Nevada and New Hampshire have been added to the list. On the strength of several double digit polls recently, New Hampshire is within a point of moving into the strong Obama category. As changes go, that one is a pretty quick shift by FHQ standards. Nevada, too, is new to the list. However, the Silver state is not back on to potentially switch back to the McCain side of the partisan line. Instead, Nevada has moved within a fraction of a point in our averages of moving into the Obama lean category. It should be noted that Ohio is within striking distance of joining Nevada in that distinction as well. So, while it may be difficult to ascertain the extent to which Obama is ahead in each of those states, both are actually inching further and further into Obama territory.

And as always, keep your eyes peeled for new polling from Florida and Missouri. Those are the two states where the potential shift called for in the Watch List would shift electoral votes in the process.


Recent Posts:
Liveblog: The Obama Infomercial

Update(s): The Electoral College from a Different Angle

The Electoral College Map (10/29/08)

Liveblog: The Obama Infomercial

8:33pm: Impressions? It was a commercial. Did it change any minds? I don't know. As I said, Obama didn't not look presidential and that may be the biggest thing about that 30 minutes. I'll be interested to see the Nielsen numbers when they are released. Other thoughts? The comments section is open for business.

8:30pm: And if that animated Obama logo with the sun rising didn't make you think of Reagan and "It's morning in America," I don't know what will. Let the record show that that was also a change election.

8:29pm: Unity. We always hear that in a change election. There's nothing wrong with that, but it is the reality. We heard some of the same stuff from George W. Bush 8 years ago. The difference? Congress. It will look a lot different on January 3, 2009 than it did on January 3, 2001.

8:27pm: This live event isn't going to be all that long.

...and here it is from Florida.

8:24pm: Back to Iraq and the sacrifice it takes to send military personnel into conflict. Well, Obama doesn't not look presidential here. [Yeah, that double negative was on purpose.]

8:22pm: Well, Kentucky isn't a swing state. They aren't just touting folks from competitive environs.

8:21pm: And here's Joe Biden. Oh, and Scranton, too.

8:19pm: A lot of family moments here. Is it just me or was there a Clinton special like this in 1992? I don't know that it was on the major networks or primetime, but it seems like there was something the Clinton camp did 16 years ago.

8:17pm: On to college affordability and health care costs. It all has an economic tinge to it.

8:15pm: "Live Obama Event Later in Program" We're halfway in, how long is allotted for that segment?

8:12pm: Iraq war money elsewhere? This scene with these intimate audiences is like a throw back to Obama's community organizer days.

8:09pm: Uh, but no nuclear on that energy plan. McCain is likely to bring that up. I don't think it'll change any minds, but I think he'll bring it up.

8:05pm: On the anniversary of the 1929 stock market crash that triggered the Great Depression, Obama is focused on the economy. [And he's narrating, too.]

8:01pm: Introducing us to ordinary Americans. Yeah, this was the most effective thing about the final night of the Democratic convention other than Obama's speech: When they brought out regular person after regular person relating to us why they were supporting Obama.

8:00pm: And we're off.

7:56pm: Well, I just turned the TV on and there is the DSCC trying to take down Saxby Chambliss. They're everywhere today. Radio, TV, you name it. That senate race must really be close.

But that's not why we're here tonight. I thought I'd dust off ye olde live blog concept just for nostalgia's sake for the primetime Obama buy. What to expect? Well, I'm told it is an infomercial. NPR even had the King of Informercials on about whether Obama would be able to make the case tonight. He said yes (Yeah, I'll check on that name for you.). It was Ron Popeil, and here is that segment from All Things Considered this evening.


Recent Posts:
Update(s): The Electoral College from a Different Angle

The Electoral College Map (10/29/08)

The Debate Last Night

Update(s): The Electoral College from a Different Angle

It's time for another update of the Electoral College via the 50% Rule from Scott. I've been swamped this last week plus, but he has updated his examination of the electoral college a couple of times over the past week or so, and I thought I'd put a map (or two) up so we can "see" the shifts. For those who missed the first two versions, you can find the first here and the update here. Here's the premise (...from the original post):

There are two basic questions being asked:
1) Is one of the candidates above the 50% mark in a state currently?

2) Has one of the candidates been the only one to surpass 50% in any reputable state poll?
If the answer is yes to both, then that implies there has been some consistency to the candidate being or having been over 50% in those averages. Those are the states that are designated solid states for either McCain or Obama.

If the answer to the second question is yes but the answer to the first question is no, that state is a lean state. In other words, there is some potential there for one of the candidates to cross that threshold. It has happened before. However, that support has either waned and is dormant or is latent in the current period.

If the answers to both questions are no, then that state is a toss up according to this metric. In this scenario, neither candidate has demonstrated the level of support in the polls to translate to an outright win in the state. As Scott put it:

"The idea is that if a state consistently polls 50-47, regardless of the methodology of the poll or the state of the national race, it's very hard for the trailing candidate to win. But if a state has a lot of polls like 46-40, but the leading candidate never breaks 50, the trailing candidate has a chance."

He added:
"There are two different ways a state can end up a toss-up. One is to have neither candidate reach 50 in any poll since McCain became the presumptive nominee. The other is to have both candidates do it, but to have neither break 50 in the pollster.com average."

And how does this change things on the map?

Changes (Oct. 6-21)
State	Before	After
New Mexico	Toss Up	Strong Obama
Virginia	Toss Up	Strong Obama
Colorado	Obama lean	Strong Obama
Michigan	Obama lean	Strong Obama
Minnesota	Obama lean	Strong Obama
Pennsylvania	Obama lean	Strong Obama
Wisconsin	Obama lean	Strong Obama
Missouri	McCain lean	Toss Up
West Virginia	McCain lean	Toss Up
Montana	Strong McCain	McCain lean
North Dakota	Strong McCain	McCain lean

Says Scott:

"While every change favored Obama, it's worth noting that Florida briefly turned solid Obama between updates, before going back to toss-up status.

"I'll also note that under this methodology, the current toss-up's can't go to lean no matter what, because both candidates have had polls showing them breaking 50. They are "battlegrounds"--they can shift to one candidate's camp, but they no longer have the luxury of "leaning," as the race in these states is not due to people who have not yet decided, but rather to people changing their minds."

[Click Map to Enlarge]

What we are seeing here is the continued surge Obama has enjoyed since the economic downturn at the end of September. The Illinois senator's position has been strengthened and in the process the lean category has contracted rather substantially. We can expect to see that to some degree just based on the fact that over time more and more undecideds are filing in behind one or the other of the two candidates. They aren't deciding and then changing their minds, for instance. What that is coupled with here, though, is the fact that Obama has surpassed 50% in a host of states over the two weeks examined here and the McCain has dropped below that point in a couple of his solid states.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------
But let's bring that up to the present -- as defined as a couple of days ago* -- and see whether the Obama gains have continued.

Changes (Oct. 21-27)
State	Before	After
New Hampshire	Toss Up	Strong Obama
Ohio	Toss Up	Strong Obama
Rhode Island	Strong Obama	Obama lean
Indiana	McCain lean	Toss Up
Arizona	Strong McCain	McCain lean
South Dakota	Strong McCain	McCain lean
West Virginia	Toss Up	Strong McCain

The short answer is sort of. Both New Hampshire and Ohio have moved over into the solid Obama category as polling in each has shown the Illinois senator surpassing 50% and staying above that point. Meanwhile, West Virginia reversed course, moving from a toss up to a solid McCain state. All the other shifts are intuitive enough except for Rhode Island. To which Scott responds:

"Yes, Rhode Island is only an Obama lean. That's one place where the 50% methodology isn't very good, because the handful of recent polls are showing a bizarre number of undecideds."

[Click Map to Enlarge]

What's interesting here is that some of the states -- Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, for example -- where the margins have decreased moderately for Obama are still solid because of the Illinois senator's position relative to the 50% threshold in the polls. Obama is still above that point consistently enough there that those states are still among the most safe for him.

*I should note that Scott will have another of these ready for what the two of us have been calling election eve. He does include one addendum to that though:

"Incidentally, expect significant changes on the Monday night map in this series, because I've been planning a methodology shift. For the very last update, I'm going to change to Pollster's "more sensitive" average; i.e. the one that reacts more quickly to changes. That way if there is some event that dominates the last few news cycles, it will be accounted for."

Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (10/29/08)

The Debate Last Night

The Electoral College Map (10/28/08)

The Electoral College Map (10/29/08)

Tuesday brought much more red to the polling on the day, but you'd be hard-pressed to call any of it "good" red. The gap continues to close in Arizona, though the state is still regarded as a strong state for John McCain. Still, as I mentioned on Monday, the symbolism of having your home grow increasingly competitive as the race draws to a close is not a welcome sign for any candidate, much less a candidate trailing in the polls both nationally and in the most competitive states. Elsewhere, a day after a Zogby poll gave the McCain campaign a somewhat comfortable advantage in Indiana, the Hoosier state turns in two polls well within the margin of error with one favoring each candidate. Indiana is still off the Watch List for a potential switch to the blue side of the partisan line, but is perilously close for a state that has been reliably Republican since LBJ's landslide in 1964. Also, there was a bit of a bounce back in the Insider Advantage polling in Georgia. And even though the new poll is red -- an improvement over the one point advantage the firm showed Obama had late last week -- that one point margin is far below what would have been expected in the Peach state as recently as two weeks ago.

New Polls (Oct. 28)
State	Poll	Margin
Arizona	ASU/Cronkite	+2
Arkansas	Rasmussen	+10
Colorado	Insider Advantage	+8
Florida	LA Times/Bloomberg	+7
Georgia	Insider Advantage	+1
Indiana	Howey-Gauge	+2
Indiana	Research 2000	+1
Louisiana	SE LA Univ.	+12.3
Maine	Market Decisions	+19.1
Mississippi	Rasmussen	+8
Mississippi	Univ. of South Alabama	+13
Montana	Mason-Dixon/NBC	+4
Nevada	Suffolk	+10
Nevada	Rasmussen	+4
New Hampshire	Mason-Dixon/NBC	+11
New Jersey	Strategic Vision	+15
North Carolina	Mason-Dixon/NBC	0
Ohio	Survey USA	+4
Ohio	LA Times/Bloomberg	+9
Pennsylvania	Insider Advantage	+9
Pennsylvania	Rasmussen	+7
Virginia	Roanoke College	+9
Washington	Survey USA	+17
Washington	Strategic Vision	+12
Wisconsin	Strategic Vision	+9

And while there is more red among the 25 new polls (in 19 states) out Tuesday, there is certainly more than enough blue to counterbalance it. While the averages are creeping lower on the McCain side of the partisan line, on the Obama side, they are increasing. Well, there are some caveats, of course, but states like Colorado, Maine, New Hampshire and Washington continue to move deeper into the Obama column. Meanwhile Pennsylvania and Wisconsin jumped toward Obama in the wake of the economic crisis but have since receded some, though perhaps not as much as the McCain campaign would prefer. [Both these states came up in the comments section discussion yesterday and I'll have something to add to that a little later today.]

The case is a bit different in Nevada and Ohio, where the results are a bit more muddled. In other words, we're getting conflicting views of just how much Obama is ahead in the Silver and Buckeye states. The Illnois senator continues to hold leads in both but the depth of that lead is something of a question mark. Of the two polls out in each state on Tuesday, one had Obama ahead by 4 and the other had the Illinois senator up by 9 or 10 points. The underlying message to take home, though, is that Obama is ahead in each throughout most of the recent polling. And both states have slipped off the Watch List into a firm position in the Obama toss up category. All that means is that neither state is within a fraction of a point of returning to the McCain side of the partisan line. And both are creeping in the opposite direction at the moment.

Changes (Oct. 28)
State	Before	After
Virginia	Toss Up Obama	Obama lean

Meanwhile, there is Virginia. The Old Dominion looks a lot more like Colorado, Maine and Washington than it does Ohio or Pennsylvania. Unlike Maine or Washington, though, Virginia started out in McCain territory and has since jumped to the Obama side of the partisan line and has sustained those numbers (...as opposed to either a bounce and recession scenario or a mixed results one). Despite that starting point -- a solid Bush state four years ago -- Virginia has now shifted enough to move into the Obama lean category. In the process that vaults Obama into an even more comfortable position ahead of the election next Tuesday. Between the strong and lean categories in the blue, Obama now has 286 electoral votes. Toss up states, then are irrelevant at this point if the goal is surpassing 270 electoral votes. If the discussion shifts to building a coalition of states to claim a mandate, then those toss up states become more consequential.

[Click Map to Enlarge]

But let's not get too far ahead of ourselves. McCain is down, but he isn't totally out. Though, there are a decreasing number of scenarios where McCain emerges victorious on November 4. For one, as FHQ showed last week, it would take an above average Bradley effect for McCain to pull out a win. Later today, we'll have a little something up about the effect an October (or at this point pretty much, a November) surprise would potentially have on the election. As things stand now, though, McCain will not only have to sweep the remaining toss up states, but he'll have to stretch into the Obama leans or even a couple of strong Obama states -- like Pennsylvania or Wisconsin -- with favorable conditions (demographics, lack of early voting, etc.). Pulling in one or both of those would negated the need for McCain to "have" to win Colorado, Virginia or New Hampshire. Regardless, the Arizona senator will have to sweep the remaining toss up states.

The Electoral College Spectrum*
HI-4 (7)**	ME-4 (157)	NH-4 (264/278)	MT-3 (160)	LA-9 (67)
VT-3 (10)	WA-11 (168)	CO-9*** (273/274)	WV-5 (157)	KY-8 (58)
NY-31 (41)	OR-7 (175)	VA-13 (286/265)	GA-15 (152)	KS-6 (50)
IL-21 (62)	NJ-15 (190)	OH-20 (306/252)	AZ-10 (137)	TN-11 (44)
RI-4 (66)	IA-7 (197)	NV-5 (311/232)	SD-3 (127)	NE-5 (33)
MD-10 (76)	MN-10 (207)	FL-27 (338/227)	MS-6 (124)	AL-9 (28)
MA-12 (88)	PA-21 (228)	MO-11 (349/200)	TX-34 (118)	WY-3 (19)
CA-55 (143)	WI-10 (238)	NC-15 (364/189)	AR-6 (84)	ID-4 (16)
DE-3 (146)	NM-5 (243)	IN-11 (375/174)	AK-3 (78)	OK-7 (12)
CT-7 (153)	MI-17 (260)	ND-3 (163)	SC-8 (75)	UT-5 (5)
*Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. **The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, McCain won all the states up to and including Colorado (all Obama's toss up states plus Colorado), he would have 274 electoral votes. Both candidates numbers are only totaled through their rival's toss up states. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and McCain's is on the right in italics. ***Colorado is the state where Obama crosses (or McCain would cross) the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. It is currently favoring Obama, thus the blue text in that cell.

Finally, the Watch List loses Montana today on the strength of the Mason-Dixon poll in the Treasure state showing McCain up 4 points. Despite that, the RNC thought the race there to be close enough to drop some cash in the state to protect McCain's position there. Other than Montana, though, there wasn't any movement on the Watch List. Colorado is within a couple hundredths of a point of shifting off the list into a more comfortable position in the Obama lean category and the new poll out this morning from the AP will likely push the Centennial state across that threshold. Colorado, then, is one to watch along with the old stand-bys, Florida and Missouri. Though, it should be said that Florida is tracking toward leaving the list in the way that Nevada and Ohio have recently. Missouri, on the other hand, continues to draw closer.

The Watch List*
State	Switch
Colorado	from Obama lean	to Toss Up Obama
Florida	from Toss Up Obama	to Toss Up McCain
Georgia	from Strong McCain	to McCain lean
Michigan	from Obama lean	to Strong Obama
Missouri	from Toss Up McCain	to Toss Up Obama
New Mexico	from Obama lean	to Strong Obama
Virginia	from Obama lean	to Toss Up Obama
*Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

NOTE: Please make a note of the Rasmussen North Carolina poll from a day ago. I mistakenly colored it an Obama one point advantage. It was a McCain lead of one point and the table now reflects that reality. The Tar Heel state is still just outside of being added to the Watch List as a potential switch into the Obama toss up category.


Recent Posts:
The Debate Last Night

The Electoral College Map (10/28/08)

Debate Tonight

The Debate Last Night

The debate that I moderated last night between the UGA College Republicans and Young Democrats was an interesting affair. We had the hall for 90 minutes and broke things down in to segments of about 8 minutes each (Well, they were supposed to have been 8 minutes each.). Both sides got two minutes to answer the question posed and that was followed up by about 2-4 minutes of cross talk. As I said yesterday, the intent was to split the event into equal parts foreign policy and domestic affairs. The guy who was moderating, though, was a bit liberal with the time allowed and let it get away from them more often than not. As a result most of the evening was spent discussing issues in the domestic sphere (...much to the chagrin of one of the College Republican panelists who also happened to be an international affairs major. All the moderator could say was, "What do you expect from an Americanist?").

I'll reproduce the question list below, but will tell you that we were able to cover immigration, candidate experience, redistribution of wealth, energy, education, the economy, Iran and checks and balances. I had planned to close by asking who each side thought would win nationally and in Georgia and why/how, but opted to close with the checks and balances question instead. The moderator in me overruled the political strategist on that final question as time waned. Plus, I was likely to have gotten partisan rather than thoughtful responses -- not that the two can't overlap -- which would have lacked any real entertainment value.

It was funny. As the crowd was filing in, I was sitting in the back of the hall going over my notes and got to hear some good lines. Two girls (I hate saying that, but saying college-aged women sounds kind of silly, though, perhaps more accurate.) were talking about how it was like a wedding, having to choose which side to sit on. I had already been thinking about this and, to me, there were more people opting for the left than the right. That seemed to be where the crowd was throughout the evening. Democratic one liners got a better response and edgy Republican comments were vocally derided. [I seriously considered jokingly leading off by revealing, in true moderator fashion, that the audience had been warned about vocal reactions, but thought better of it. There are only so many jokes you can fit in and I already had a Joe the Plumber reference.]

As to the debate itself, I'm sure everyone is interested in my opinion of who won. When my sister asked me this morning, I said me (...because I had not succumbed to stage fright beforehand. How like a politician: setting the bar low before an event.). In all seriousness, though, I think it is probably beyond my pay grade -- to borrow a phrase -- to call out students and critique them on their performances (I do enough of that already.). I thought both sides did well, but like any of the four debates we just witnessed, there was a fair amount of question dodging and reliance on stump speech material. But hey, if the people at the top do it, I can't begrudge any of the panelists for doing the same. [Heck, it wasn't like I was Jim Lehrer up there.] More than anything the night was about information and I'd like to think that the discussion that took place on stage helped to get some additional information out there to students at UGA.

But the evening was enjoyable and I appreciated the University Union contacting me and allowing me to participate.

Below are the questions I used (or would have used had we had more time or a more disciplined moderator). I was able to sneak Rob's socialism/liberalism and conservatism/libertarianism question into the discussion of redistribution. That one got set up better than I had hoped when one of the Republican panelists brought up not only socialism but went beyond that to invoke communism, even quoting Karl Marx. That led to a good exchange.

The only reason that I didn't get to use Daniel's was because it came in after I had already completed the set of questions for the night. That one is on me. I probably should have put a deadline in with the original call for questions.
--------------------------------------------
Debate Questions
I Immigration
One issue that has been lost in the campaign this year is the issue of immigration. That is due in large part to the relative proximity of the two candidates on how to deal with it and McCain's divergence from some within the Republican Party. On the one side is the wall along the United States' southern border with Mexico and on the other is talk of granting amnesty to illegal immigrants. Where do John McCain and Barack Obama fit in on that spectrum and how will each deal with the issue over the course of the next four years?

II Experience
From some of the student questions I received, I saw that experience is still an issue that is on people's minds. Early on, this looked like a race that would potentially be shaped based on the age vs. experience question. Was McCain too old and did Obama lack the experience necessary to deal with the serious problems facing the nation. The Sarah Palin selection added a twist to this discussion, but is this still an issue and how will it affect each after January 20th?

III Redistribution/Socialism
This one comes to us from our good friend Joe the Plumber. Obviously, the McCain campaign has tried to make an issue – whether successful or not – of Obama's response about the idea of redistribution of wealth. At the heart of this is the divide between the two parties on how much and in what ways the federal government should intervene on economic issues. But what does this mean, a redistribution of wealth? What wealth and where will it be redistributed?

Follow-up:
Since we're talking government intervention, I'd like to take a step back and talk a little about basic questions of ideology. I often run my 1101 students through the paces on ideology, but I think it would be instructive to give that discussion a potential real world application. To my friends on the right, what is the difference between a conservative and a libertarian? And to the folks on the left, what is the difference between a liberal and a socialist?

IV Energy
Whether its drill baby drill or adding new green collar jobs to our economy, alternative forms of energy are high on the lists of priorities of both John McCain and Barack Obama. What is the most cost-effective combination of these various ideas to deal with the United States' current energy problems.

V Education
I wanted to talk about something related to education. We are at an institution of higher learning after all. And I'd like to confine our discussion to that area. At least some of the folks in this room are facing student loan repayments when they are done at UGA and among the others there are HOPE scholarship recipients whose scholarships – and this may be something faced by future students more than those here in the hall tonight – may be threatened because of the rising cost of higher education. What are each of the major candidate's doing to address the issue of college affordability?

VI Economy
This question was posed to the candidates in all four debates this year and I don't know that the American people got a solid answer to it at any point during any of those affairs. However, I think that we may be able to come up with some ideas tonight. There's always a lot of promises in political campaigns, but in light of the current economic situation, what are some of the things that are most likely going to be on the cutting room floor once one of these two gentlemen assumes the office of the presidency?

VII Iran
Iran. Diplomacy or military intervention? There's been a lot of talk about conditions and pre-conditions for sitting down with certain world leaders, but obviously, the Islamic Republic's development of nuclear technology is a huge consideration in dealing with Iran. But what is the point of no return? At what point in that nation's nuclear development does it become necessary for military intervention to be seriously considered?

VIII Israel
I'm glad Israel came up in that last exchange/I'm surprised Israel didn't come up in that exchange because that is where I'd like to turn now. The Iran question is very much intertwined with the Israel question simply because of their ties to the Palestinians opposite the Israelis on the dispute over the territory in the Holy Land. What should the US role be in the Israeli/Palestinian dispute and how should that approach be tempered by the question of Iran's interest in the issue as well?

IX Trade
Charges of protectionism and unfair trade have been bandied about throughout this campaign – even stretching back to the primary contests in the winter and spring. What can be done to alter the trade regimes currently in place so that they successfully tread the line between the two extremes represented by the charges levied in this contest – protectionism and unfair trade?

X Humanitarian Intervention
The US military is stretched pretty much to its limit currently. Given that reality and its intersection with the economic downturn has the United States' ability to deal with current humanitarian crises and those that may arise in the future been compromised? Like a lot of things, this is a question of degrees. Under what circumstances is it necessary for the US to intervene to create some solution to humanitarian issues?

XI Checks and Balances
I wanted to end on a bit of a broad note. No matter who wins next week, the next president will have to deal with what is projected to be an overwhelming Democratic majority in both houses of Congress. 250 seats in the House and possibly a filibuster-proof majority of 60 in the Senate. If McCain wins how will he be able to govern effectively without a wholesale shift toward the left? And if Obama wins, what will he have to do to keep the various factions of the Democratic majority on the same page when dealing with the issues that face the nation?

XII Closing Question
Who is going to win both nationally and here in Georgia and why?


Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (10/28/08)

Debate Tonight

The Electoral College Map (10/27/08)

The Electoral College Map (10/28/08)

NOTE: Folks, I apologize for the delay getting today's map up. Last night's debate (further details forthcoming) on campus here at UGA threw me off my typical routine. I'll make it up to you with some interesting stuff throughout the afternoon. Anyway...

Well, we had plenty of polling to sift through on Monday. A total of 33 polls in 17 states -- including multiple surveys from states like Florida, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia -- provided enough new data to potentially shake up the graduated weighted averages here at FHQ. The picture created by the full day's set of polls, though, was one that continued the trend we have seen across most of the recent polling: Obama is ahead and seemingly comfortably so in enough states to be able win a week from today. Of course, as we've seen here for the last several weeks, Obama has been over the 270 electoral vote mark with or without any of the toss up states. Nothing on Monday changed that. However, the new polling did reposition several states on the Electoral College Spectrum below in some noteworthy ways.

New Polls (Oct. 27)
State	Poll	Margin
Arizona	Rasmussen	+8
Arizona	N. Arizona Univ.	+5
California	Rasmussen	+27
Colorado	Rasmussen/FOX	+4
Florida	Suffolk	+5
Florida	Rasmussen/FOX	+4
Florida	Zogby	+0.3
Florida	Datamar	+5
Indiana	Zogby	+6.2
Iowa	Marist	+10
Missouri	Rasmussen/FOX	+1
Missouri	Zogby	+2.5
Missouri	Survey USA	0
Nevada	Zogby	+4.2
New Hampshire	Marist	+5
New Hampshire	UNH	+16
New York	Siena	+31
North Carolina	Rasmussen/FOX	+1
North Carolina	Zogby	+3.3
North Carolina	Public Policy Polling	+1
Ohio	Rasmussen/FOX	+4
Ohio	Zogby	+4.6
Oklahoma	TvPoll	+26.8
Oregon	Survey USA	+19
Pennsylvania	Temple University	+9
Vermont	Research 2000	+21
Virginia	Washington Post	+8
Virginia	Zogby	+7.2
Virginia	Survey USA	+9
Virginia	VCU	+11
Virginia	Rasmussen/FOX	+4
Washington	University of Washington	+21
West Virginia	Zogby	+9.9

The first thing about this series of polling is how overwhelmingly blue it is. Oklahoma, we can understand. And Indiana and West Virginia certainly look better for McCain in light of the Zogby polls in each. Indiana especially, is heading in the right direction after those two blue polls in the Hoosier state last week. But McCain's home state of Arizona looks bleak. Not Gore/Tennessee in 2000 bleak, but bleak nonetheless. Both states were/are trending away from their favorite sons, but Tennessee was further away from Gore in 2000 than Arizona is from McCain in 2008. Still, while single digits aren't ideal, the numbers Monday (+8 and +5 for McCain) were better than they were on Sunday (+2 and +4 for McCain). The Grand Canyon state's average is now under 10 points, though. Missouri, too, with each passing day, continues to inch closer and closer to the partisan line and a switch over into the blue. Regardless of our measure here, the Show-Me state is looking like as close to a dead heat as we may have next week. The last week of polling in Missouri has been dominated by one point margins in both directions.

[Click Map to Enlarge]

I'll get back to Missouri towards the end today, but let's look at the effect all those blue polls in Florida, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia had. Obviously, all are moving toward Obama at this point, but each had different starting points. Virginia's shift down the stretch has been notable. While it has been a toss up throughout, the Old Dominion was on the other side of both Ohio and Nevada on the McCain side of the partisan line not that long ago (during the last week of September). Virginia has switched from being a state that wasn't even on the Watch List -- state closest to changing categories -- as a possible switch into the Obama column to a state that is within a couple hundredths of a point of moving into the Obama lean category. If that Rasmussen/FOX poll (the poll most recently in the field in the state) of the state had shown a 5 point margin instead of a 4 point margin, Virginia would be a darker shade of blue today.

Florida's starting point was even further into McCain territory than Virginia, but the Sunshine state's shift has been nearly as large; switching from a state that treaded the line between the toss up and lean categories on the red side of the ledger to now being within half a point of moving off the Watch List into the "safer" area of the toss up category. Of course, that +/-3 point area is called toss up for a reason, but Florida's position switch has been a steadily consistent work-in-progress. Now, whether the Sunshine state ends up in the blue on the evening of November 4 is far from a certain outcome, but the fact that that is even possible now, given the state's position in the race over the summer is saying something. It was moderately controversial to question whether the state was a toss up then.

North Carolina and Ohio, too, have moved closer to or into Obama territory since the economic downturn during the latter half of September. The recent polling backs this up to some extent. In Ohio, the margin has spread out a little, while in North Carolina, there was a jump toward Obama that has since contracted some and settled into an area that puts the Tar Heels state on a trajectory similar to that of Missouri's -- trending toward a dead heat at the right time for Obama and the wrong time for McCain.

The Electoral College Spectrum*
HI-4 (7)**	ME-4 (157)	NH-4 (264/278)	ND-3 (160)	LA-9 (67)
VT-3 (10)	WA-11 (168)	CO-9*** (273/274)	WV-5 (157)	KY-8 (58)
NY-31 (41)	OR-7 (175)	VA-13 (286/265)	GA-15 (152)	KS-6 (50)
IL-21 (62)	NJ-15 (190)	OH-20 (306/252)	AZ-10 (137)	TN-11 (44)
RI-4 (66)	IA-7 (197)	NV-5 (311/232)	SD-3 (127)	NE-5 (33)
MD-10 (76)	MN-10 (207)	FL-27 (338/227)	MS-6 (124)	AL-9 (28)
MA-12 (88)	PA-21 (228)	MO-11 (349/200)	TX-34 (118)	WY-3 (19)
CA-55 (143)	WI-10 (238)	NC-15 (364/189)	AK-3 (84)	ID-4 (16)
DE-3 (146)	NM-5 (243)	IN-11 (375/174)	AR-6 (81)	OK-7 (12)
CT-7 (153)	MI-17 (260)	MT-3 (163)	SC-8 (75)	UT-5 (5)
*Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. **The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, McCain won all the states up to and including Colorado (all Obama's toss up states plus Colorado), he would have 274 electoral votes. Both candidates numbers are only totaled through their rival's toss up states. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and McCain's is on the right in italics. ***Colorado is the state where Obama crosses (or McCain would cross) the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. It is currently favoring Obama, thus the blue text in that cell.

That the battle is being waged over this last week of the campaign in four Bush states says an awful lot about the state of the race. Sure, the McCain campaign was in Iowa over the weekend, but the numbers there aren't that promising. But the Hawkeye state was red four years ago too. The last hope state for McCain is Pennsylvania and that is really the only Kerry state being contested at this point (other than New Hampshire). And we see this on the map above, a map that continues to show Senator Obama ahead 338-200 with Missouri and North Carolina drawing closer as the race itself draws to a close.

But the big movers of the day were among the safe states. New York, California, Oregon and Washington all jumped up the rankings on the Electoral College Spectrum. Meanwhile, Arizona moved as well, just in a direction opposite of what the McCain campaign might like. Arizona has now joined Georgia to form a 'tweener group here at FHQ. Both are trending toward increased competitiveness, but are stuck on the low end of the strong McCain category. However, there is some distance between Arizona and Mississippi and between Georgia and West Virginia. Regardless, though each is moving toward Obama, neither is likely to jump over to Obama in the next week. That imaginary line between Arizona and Mississippi South Dakota is one to make note of, though. Should the results of the election move into the landslide arena, that is likely the point to which Obama can stretch his coalition of states. The closer you get to that partisan line, however, the more likely it is that the Arizona senator could peel off any of those McCain states.

The Watch List*
State	Switch
Colorado	from Obama lean	to Toss Up Obama
Florida	from Toss Up Obama	to Toss Up McCain
Georgia	from Strong McCain	to McCain lean
Michigan	from Obama lean	to Strong Obama
Missouri	from Toss Up McCain	to Toss Up Obama
Montana	from McCain lean	to Toss Up McCain
New Mexico	from Obama lean	to Strong Obama
Virginia	from Toss Up Obama	to Obama lean
*Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

On the Watch List, Florida and Missouri are still the states to watch most closely when new polling is released. Missouri's magic number is now down to 9 (from 11), meaning that it would take a poll with a margin of 9 points in favor of Obama to shift the state into the blue. Alternately, Florida would have to give McCain a 13 point margin in the next poll to bring the Sunshine state back into the red in FHQ's averages. Comparatively, Missouri's magic number is shrinking while Florida's is growing. Neither can be seen as welcome news for the McCain campaign.


Recent Posts:
Debate Tonight

The Electoral College Map (10/27/08)

The Electoral College Map (10/26/08)