The Electoral College Map (10/25/08)

I had trouble pulling myself away from the Frontline biography [The Choice 2008] on McCain and Obama long enough to write this. Alas, I managed, and if you're interested, the Frontline special is linked above. [Good stuff.]

And the Friday polls? Well, for once a Friday was actually a pretty good day for polling releases. Typically, we've seen the number of polls drop off significantly on Friday, and while there was a decrease compared to Thursday's massive release, to have 19 polls to end the work week gives us something to examine heading into the weekend.

New Polls (Oct. 24)
State	Poll	Margin
Alabama	Capital Survey Research Center	+20
Florida	Strategic Vision	+2
Florida	Insider Advantage	+1
Georgia	Strategic Vision	+6
Georgia	Insider Advantage	+1
Iowa	Rasmussen	+8
Kentucky	Research 2000	+16
Massachusetts	Suffolk	+19
Michigan	EPIC/MRA	+14
New Hampshire	Rasmussen	+4
North Carolina	Winthrop/ETV	+0.4
North Carolina	Rasmussen	+2
Ohio	Strategic Vision	+3
Ohio	Insider Advantage	+10
Ohio	Public Policy Polling	+7
Oregon	Riley	+14
Pennsylvania	Strategic Vision	+7
South Carolina	Winthrop/ETV	+20.2
Virginia	Winthrop/ETV	+1

The question of the day? Was the polling any better on Friday than it was on Thursday for John McCain? The short answer is yes. There weren't any Indianas or Montanas in the blue and Iowa and New Hampshire, at first glance, looked much closer than they have been recently. A closer look shows us that while both were tighter than they had been compared to other polling of late, there were differing results compared to the last poll conducted by the same firm in those states. The previous time Rasmussen surveyed both Iowa and New Hampshire, Iowa showed the exact same 8 point margin for Barack Obama as September turned into October.

The Illinois senator's margin in New Hampshire, however, dropped six points from 10 t0 4 over the same period. Of all the states, New Hampshire seems to be one that moves the most in conjunction with how the national polls are trending. But that may not be the case here. John McCain has a base of support among the independents in the Granite state dating back to his 2000 run for the Republican nomination, and it could be, though I can't confirm this on Rasmussen's site [The toplines from the last poll aren't up anymore. When and if they reappear, I'll check.], that the few undecideds have decided to line up behind McCain. We don't have the October 1 toplines, but the previous Rasmussen poll of the Granite state shows the same number of undecideds during the last week of September as there are now, 3%. So, that may not be the reason the margin has closed.

[Click Map to Enlarge]

Outside of those two instances of McCain gains, the rest of the day was kind of a mixed bag. Sure, Obama was up a point in the latest Insider Advantage poll in Georgia (Yes, Georgia! I wouldn't mind seeing the Peach state get competitive. It's good for business.), but that was balanced out by the six point advantage McCain had there in the Strategic Vision poll. Still, even if the former is disregarded, that six point edge for McCain is smaller than the lead had earlier in the month. And it should also be noted that Insider Advantage has periodically had Georgia much closer than the other polls of the state throughout this election year. It was a couple of polls earlier in the summer from the organization -- +1 and +2 for McCain -- that raised the possibility that Georgia could be in play. Yes, that talk had been around since Obama's Super Tuesday victory in the state, but those two polls certainly didn't hurt that perception, giving them some actual independent polling evidence of the potential closeness. At this time though, it looks like Georgia is still out of Obama's grasp.

The Electoral College Spectrum*
HI-4 (7)**	ME-4 (157)	NH-4 (264/278)	ND-3 (160)	LA-9 (67)
VT-3 (10)	OR-7 (164)	CO-9*** (273/274)	WV-5 (157)	KY-8 (58)
IL-21 (31)	NJ-15 (179)	VA-13 (286/265)	GA-15 (152)	KS-6 (50)
RI-4 (35)	WA-11 (190)	OH-20 (306/252)	SD-3 (137)	TN-11 (44)
MD-10 (45)	IA-7 (197)	NV-5 (311/232)	MS-6 (134)	NE-5 (33)
MA-12 (57)	MN-10 (207)	FL-27 (338/227)	TX-34 (128)	AL-9 (28)
NY-31 (88)	WI-10 (217)	MO-11 (349/200)	AK-3 (94)	WY-3 (19)
DE-3 (91)	PA-21 (238)	IN-11 (360/189)	SC-8 (91)	ID-4 (16)
CT-7 (98)	NM-5 (243)	NC-15 (375/178)	AZ-10 (83)	OK-7 (12)
CA-55 (153)	MI-17 (260)	MT-3 (163)	AR-6 (73)	UT-5 (5)
*Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. **The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, McCain won all the states up to and including Colorado (all Obama's toss up states plus Colorado), he would have 274 electoral votes. Both candidates numbers are only totaled through their rival's toss up states. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and McCain's is on the right in italics. ***Colorado is the state where Obama crosses (or McCain would cross) the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. It is currently favoring Obama, thus the blue text in that cell.

There was a similar canceling effect with the Ohio polls of the day as well. On the one hand, Insider Advantage's survey of the Buckeye state confirmed the double digit margins in the Quinnipiac and Big Ten polls a day earlier. But on the other, Strategic Vision showed a 3 point McCain lead. That's a pretty big margin, but we have seen this in Ohio before. [Within a week of each other late in July, PPP and Rasmussen had polls showing an 8 point Obama lead and a 10 point McCain lead respectively.] The late-night release of the PPP poll carves out a nice position between the two other Ohio polls of the day at seven points. My intuition tells me that even that is a bit high, but is indicative of the shift toward Obama since the Lehman collapse triggered the economic bailout situation on Captiol Hill.

The Watch List*
State	Switch
Colorado	from Obama lean	to Toss Up Obama
Florida	from Toss Up Obama	to Toss Up McCain
Georgia	from Strong McCain	to McCain lean
Michigan	from Obama lean	to Strong Obama
Missouri	from Toss Up McCain	to Toss Up Obama
Montana	from McCain lean	to Toss Up McCain
New Mexico	from Obama lean	to Strong Obama
Virginia	from Toss Up Obama	to Obama lean
*Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

But on a good Friday poll day, nothing changed on the map and little else changed in the rankings reflected in the Electoral College Spectrum. Georgia did move enough to be added to the Watch List, but the Peach state isn't likely to move any more than into the McCain lean category between now and election day. FHQ's measures aside, for Georgia to move into the blue on November 4, it would take something on the order of a 10 point win nationally for the Illinois senator. I suppose that could happen, but we rarely see such resounding victories in presidential elections, especially, as Seth Masket has continually cautioned, since this is an "open seat" presidential election. In those situations, the losing candidate is typically able to get to at least 45% of the vote. That would put ten points as the ceiling on what a winning candidate can achieve.

Finally, Nevada also moves off the Watch List for today. What? With no polls? Yeah, keep in mind that every state's average changes everyday now. That is because the weighting scheme is dependent upon the number of days since Super Tuesday to determine the weight of each poll conducted since that time. Nevada, as we said the other day, was a few thousandths of a point from moving off the list, and has gotten that fraction as the weighting has changed since.


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All that polling Thursday and what do we have to show for it? A lot of blue, that's what. Thursday was not (I repeat, NOT) a good day polling-wise for the McCain campaign. You know it is bad when Montana is blue in a poll this late in the game and Indiana is giving Obama ten points in another. Now, these are individual polls, so as is FHQ's custom, we don't like to overreact to anything other than a clear trend. I'm hesitant to jump on board with the assertion at FiveThirtyEight yesterday that these polls are manufactured to a certain extent to play into the pollsters' perceptions of where each state is in a national context. [And I'm sure Nate was saying that just to get suckers like me to link to the post.] Some other outlets for electoral college analyses have those states and others, like Ohio, shifting in a big way toward Obama. In all three cases, there were consequential shifts for those three states, but by our measure, there was no line-crossing action. However, each of the three either moved on or off the Watch List (see below).

New Polls (Oct. 23)
State	Poll	Margin
Arkansas	University of Arkansas	+15
California	PPIC	+23
Florida	Quinnipiac	+5
Florida	St. Pete Times/Miami Herald	+7
Georgia	Rasmussen	+5
Illinois	Big Ten/Univ. of Wisc.	+29
Indiana	Big Ten/Univ. of Wisc.	+10
Indiana	Survey USA	+4
Iowa	Big Ten/Univ. of Wisc.	+13
Kansas	Survey USA	+12
Louisiana	Rasmussen	+16
Maine	Critical Insights	+21
Michigan	Big Ten/Univ. of Wisc.	+22
Minnesota	National Journal	+10
Minnesota	Big Ten/Univ. of Wisc.	+19
Minnesota	Rasmussen	+15
Montana	Montana State Univ.	+4
Ohio	Quinnipiac	+14
Ohio	Big Ten/Univ. of Wisc.	+12
Pennsylvania	National Journal	+10
Pennsylvania	Quinnipiac	+13
Pennsylvania	Big Ten/Univ. of Wisc.	+11
Pennsylvania	Survey USA	+12
Texas	Rasmussen	+10
Washington	Rasmussen	+11
Wisconsin	National Journal	+13
Wisconsin	Big Ten/Univ. of Wisc.	+13

There was also a lot made of the BigTen polls that came out of states in which the BigTen athletics conference schools are in. This was the set of polls that had that 10 point Obama margin in Indiana. That one along with the Ohio poll seemed extreme -- especially given how close this set of polls was just a month ago -- but I'm in agreement with Jack on this one. Other than those two, though, the rest just don't seem to be extreme outliers. And with Friday's Insider Advantage poll of Ohio also showing a double digit margin for Obama, the BigTen and Quinnipiac polls don't appear to be all that out of whack. On election day they may prove to have been off, but for this moment in time, that doesn't seem to be the case. First of all, we'll, as I often suggest, need more information to confirm or disprove the margins in these polls. [Strategic Vision, for example, disagrees with these three polls showing just a three point Obama McCain lead in the Buckeye state.] But we also see that our averages for these states did not cross into stronger categories for Obama. And, again, that underlines the power of including past polls in our averages because it tamps down the day to day volatility that polls like these trigger.

Changes (Oct. 23)
State	Before	After
Pennsylvania	Obama lean	Strong Obama

Now that the FHQ electoral college methodology public service announcement is over, we can focus on the actual data. So what changed after all those polls, volatile or otherwise? Well, not too much on the map. Pennsylvania moved into the strong Obama category and the Keystone state's shift is the culmination of several weeks worth of polling that has pushed the state's average closer and closer to the double digit mark. Pennsylvania's position as the state for the McCain folks to target seems a bit misplaced in this context. And the reported -- and apparently falsely so -- move on the part of the McCain campaign to pull out of Colorado (and Iowa and New Mexico) really looks strange in light of Pennsylvania's current polling. As I said when Florida turned blue last week, it means something when a state moves here -- typically that it is a lasting move that will be difficult to reverse.

...especially with just eleven days left in the campaign.

[Click Map to Enlarge]

And while Pennsylvania is the only move of the day, it does increase the proportion of his electoral votes in that category to over 70%. [For the record, McCain's strong states make up 76% of the electoral vote share he has on the map above.] If Obama is safe in states with 238 electoral votes then the Illinois senator needs but 32 more to cross the 270 threshold. And the four Obama lean state do that without even factoring in which toss up states may or may not favor Obama.

The Electoral College Spectrum*
HI-4 (7)**	ME-4 (157)	NH-4 (264/278)	ND-3 (160)	LA-9 (67)
VT-3 (10)	NJ-15 (172)	CO-9*** (273/274)	WV-5 (157)	KY-8 (58)
IL-21 (31)	WA-11 (183)	VA-13 (286/265)	GA-15 (152)	KS-6 (50)
RI-4 (35)	OR-7 (190)	OH-20 (306/252)	SD-3 (137)	TN-11 (44)
MA-12 (47)	IA-7 (197)	NV-5 (311/232)	MS-6 (134)	NE-5 (33)
MD-10 (57)	MN-10 (207)	FL-27 (338/227)	TX-34 (128)	AL-9 (28)
NY-31 (88)	WI-10 (217)	MO-11 (349/200)	AK-3 (94)	WY-3 (19)
DE-3 (91)	PA-21 (238)	IN-11 (360/189)	SC-8 (91)	ID-4 (16)
CT-7 (98)	NM-5 (243)	NC-15 (375/178)	AZ-10 (83)	OK-7 (12)
CA-55 (153)	MI-17 (260)	MT-3 (163)	AR-6 (73)	UT-5 (5)
*Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. **The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, McCain won all the states up to and including Colorado (all Obama's toss up states plus Colorado), he would have 274 electoral votes. Both candidates numbers are only totaled through their rival's toss up states. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and McCain's is on the right in italics. ***Colorado is the state where Obama crosses (or McCain would cross) the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. It is currently favoring Obama, thus the blue text in that cell.

But since we're on the topic of toss up states, we may as well discuss them. The list of them remains the same, but some of the ordering on the Electoral College Spectrum (above) has changed. On the weight of a couple of (super-) favorable polls in Ohio, Obama's average lead in the Buckeye state is now above the one point mark. We discussed Nevada nearly making that distinction yesterday and Virginia has already passed that point, but now Ohio has joined them. The Buckeye state is now off the Watch List and is moving even more toward Obama.

Indiana was also a fairly big mover on Thursday. [Just to note, there is a difference in what we're talking about here in terms of the word move. In the Pennsylvania discussion, move meant changing categories, but in this context it refers to the repositioning on the Spectrum's rankings. Pennsylvania changed categories, but didn't actually move on the Spectrum. Indiana, however, didn't change categories but did shift in the rankings.] Sure, it just jumped North Carolina, but it went from being on the Watch List for a potential move into the McCain lean category to very nearly being on the list as a possibility to turn blue (It is only one one-thousandth of a point away from that distinction.). In our averages, that's a pretty big shift. But why did it jump North Carolina? The Tar Heel state has had a bunch of pro-Obama polls lately and has not really gone anywhere. Well, we spoke about how well our model did earlier, and here's where we talk about one of the drawbacks. The discrepancy in the number of polls between Indiana and North Carolina means that a state with fewer polls (Indiana) is more susceptible to bigger shifts given new and decidedly different polling information. The flip side is that North Carolina is being polled quite heavily right now and that if the current trajectory continues, the Tar Heel state will continue to move closer and closer to a tie (or to turning blue).

If Indiana has fewer polls than North Carolina, Montana has fewer polls than Indiana. The four point margin the Montana State poll gave Obama in the Treasure state pulled Montana onto the Watch List for a potential switch into the toss up McCain category. And though it was a pretty big shift within the average, Montana didn't change categories, but it did move from the upper end of the lean category to the lower end in a hurry.

The Watch List*
State	Switch
Colorado	from Obama lean	to Toss Up Obama
Florida	from Toss Up Obama	to Toss Up McCain
Michigan	from Obama lean	to Strong Obama
Missouri	from Toss Up McCain	to Toss Up Obama
Montana	from McCain lean	to Toss Up McCain
Nevada	from Toss Up Obama	to Toss Up McCain
New Mexico	from Obama lean	to Strong Obama
Virginia	from Toss Up Obama	to Obama lean
*Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

The striking thing is that Montana is really the lone red state represented on the Watch List. Every other state is operating within the toss up McCain to Strong Obama categories. Sure, there are three states and 52 electoral votes that could shift into that McCain toss up category, but even that looks tough for McCain given how the momentum in the race is moving. And even though there is something of a mixed message from the polling out so far today, it doesn't really seem to be shifting wholesale toward McCain, at least not in a way that is going to move enough electoral votes to push him over 270.


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Here is an interesting map the Obama campaign has put together to track mailers and robocalls the McCain campaign has been using recently. Good stuff and not surprisingly, there are an awful lot of points over North Carolina and Virginia. But McCain has made some moves in Maine, New Mexico and Wisconsin as well.

[Yeah, I'm a sucker for maps.]


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It seems silly to talk about Wednesday's polls in light of the release of another round of pre- and post-debate polls from Quinnipiac and another installment of polls from the Big 10 consortium. However, I will press on and deal with Wednesday and get back on schedule tonight with an update that includes those polls. FHQ apologizes for the less-than-timely release of the electoral college updates the last couple of days, but it is midterm time and my "real" job is calling.

New Polls (Oct. 22)
State	Poll	Margin
Florida	Mason-Dixon/NBC	+1
Kentucky	Rasmussen	+8
Maine	Pan Atlantic SMS	+12
Nevada	CNN	+5
North Carolina	CNN	+4
North Carolina	WSOC	+2
Ohio	CNN	+4
Tennessee	Rasmussen	+12
Virginia	CNN	+10
Virginia	Mason-Dixon/NBC	+2
Washington	Elway	+19
West Virginia	Rainmaker	+0.4
West Virginia	CNN	+9
West Virginia	Orion Strategies (9/22)	+11
West Virginia	Orion Strategies (10/21)	+5.7
Wisconsin	WPR/St. Norbert	+13
Wisconsin	Research 2000	+11

Anyway, Wednesday brought us 17 new polls from 11 states, including four polls from West Virginia. A couple of those Mountain state polls are back-dated, and even though there is some conflict between the results, the raw average is right around where the state is expected to be: right in the middle to upper end of the McCain lean category. Now, that raw average of those four polls runs a little above where our graduated weighted average has West Virginia currently, but both measures would put the state in the same category. West Virginia jumped into the toss up category recently following the ARG poll that gave Obama an eight point lead there, but since, the Mountain state has drifted back in McCain's direction.

And though West Virginia is still an interesting state to watch, it certainly isn't among the states that we should be eyeing most with just under two weeks to go until election day. Among those states closest to the partisan line -- those closest to having their electoral votes go to the opposite candidate -- Florida, Nevada, Ohio and Virginia all had new polls on Wednesday. Mason-Dixon's small McCain advantage echoed the same one point margin for the Arizona senator that Rasmussen had shown earlier in the week. However, Florida holds steady in Obama toss up territory, but only just barely.

Mason-Dixon also had a poll out in Virginia that pegged the race in the Old Dominion as a two point Obama lead. Given the recent polling in Virginia and the other poll out of the state today -- CNN +10 -- Mason-Dixon's margin looks like an outlier. It could be, however, that it is a sign of a new trend, but we'll have to wait for more information to draw that conclusion.

CNN had polls in both Nevada and Ohio that showed Obama up 5 and 4 points, respectively. Each is on par with where the post-Lehman polling shows the two states. In fact, Nevada is on the verge of slipping off the Watch List (see below). The only reason that the Silver state remains on the list is that only after rounding up does the state's average reach one point. But Nevada is within a few one-thousandths of a point of joining Virginia in a more comfortable position within the toss up category -- if there is such a thing -- for Obama.

[Click Map to Enlarge]

Other than those hotly contested states, the polls in the remaining states are right around where we've come to expect them to be in recent weeks. North Carolina is still noteworthy because there continues to be pro-Obama polling in the Tar Heel state. The result is that North Carolina is slowly but surely making its way closer to a complete dead heat in this race. [I'll have a little more on this as a follow up to our earlier North Carolina discussion later in the day.]

The Electoral College Spectrum*
HI-4 (7)**	ME-4 (157)	NH-4 (264/278)	WV-5 (160)	LA-9 (67)
VT-3 (10)	WA-11 (168)	CO-9*** (273/274)	MT-3 (155)	KY-8 (58)
RI-4 (14)	NJ-15 (183)	VA-13 (286/265)	GA-15 (152)	TN-11 (50)
MA-12 (26)	OR-7 (190)	NV-5 (291/252)	SD-3 (137)	KS-6 (39)
MD-10 (36)	IA-7 (197)	OH-20 (311/247)	MS-6 (134)	NE-5 (33)
IL-21 (57)	WI-10 (207)	FL-27 (338/227)	TX-34 (128)	AL-9 (28)
NY-31 (88)	MN-10 (217)	MO-11 (349/200)	AR-6 (94)	WY-3 (19)
DE-3 (91)	PA-21 (238)	NC-15 (364/189)	AK-3 (88)	ID-4 (16)
CT-7 (98)	NM-5 (243)	IN-11 (375/174)	SC-8 (85)	OK-7 (12)
CA-55 (153)	MI-17 (260)	ND-3 (163)	AZ-10 (77)	UT-5 (5)
*Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. **The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, McCain won all the states up to and including Colorado (all Obama's toss up states plus Colorado), he would have 274 electoral votes. Both candidates numbers are only totaled through their rival's toss up states. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and McCain's is on the right in italics. ***Colorado is the state where Obama crosses (or McCain would cross) the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. It is currently favoring Obama, thus the blue text in that cell.

But none of Wednesday's polls shifted any of the states represented enough to trigger a change in categories. The map and the underlying electoral vote distribution remain unchanged from a day ago. Obama maintains a 338-200 electoral vote advantage and is comfortable enough in enough states at this point that a win on November 4 seems more likely with each passing day; especially if that day is one where McCain has not been able to take over the media narrative. And even if there is a Bradley effect involved in the polling being conducted, it is likely not at a level that will affect the overall outcome projected here.

The Watch List*
State	Switch
Colorado	from Obama lean	to Toss Up Obama
Florida	from Toss Up Obama	to Toss Up McCain
Indiana	from Toss Up McCain	to McCain lean
Minnesota	from Strong Obama	to Obama lean
Missouri	from Toss Up McCain	to Toss Up Obama
Nevada	from Toss Up Obama	to Toss Up McCain
New Mexico	from Obama lean	to Strong Obama
Ohio	from Toss Up Obama	to Toss Up McCain
Pennsylvania	from Obama lean	to Strong Obama
Virginia	from Toss Up Obama	to Obama lean
*Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

We have already mentioned the Big 10 and Quinnipiac polls out this morning and within each are five of the ten states on our Watch List -- the states most likely to switch categories given new polling. That said, find your way back over to FHQ for an update that incorporates those polls to see what effect they have had.


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What the Bradley Effect Might Look Like

There has been a lot of talk this year about the potential for the Bradley/Wilder* effect to play a role in this presidential campaign. In fact, this is the first time we have had the opportunity to discuss the phenomenon in terms of a legitimately viable candidate for the presidency during both the primary phase of the race and continuing into the general election. There also has not been any lack of opinions or research done as to whether the Bradley effect could play a role or whether it is even relevant in 2008. Just today Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight linked to a Newsweek piece he had written to once again attempt to debunk the myth. And that's just the thing: given the current state of this race, this is the one unknown -- and some people, Silver included, argue that it really isn't -- that could affect the race enough to hand McCain the election.

...or could it?

I can buy Silver's argument that the Bradley effect is a myth in 2008. In fact, Dan Hopkins' paper on the Bradley effect has shown that over time the phenomenon has faded to the point of being minor at best. But Hopkins' research serves as something of a jumping off point. Whether there is or isn't a Bradley effect at play between now and November 4, we have data that indicates approximately what that effect may look like [...on average]. Across the 133 cases of minority or female candidates running for either a senate or gubernatorial position since 1989, the average effect was one percent. Now, that doesn't seem like that much, but let's look at how today's electoral college map would look if there was a uniformly distributed, 1% Bradley effect in the presidential race. [Again, the point of this exercise isn't to determine whether there is a Bradley effect, rather it is one to ascertain what the effect would look like on the electoral college map.]

[Click Map to Enlarge]

The obvious change is that several of the states on today's Watch List shift enough in that one percent move to change categories. Most consequentially, Florida, Nevada and Ohio move back into the McCain toss up category, handing the Arizona senator 52 electoral votes in the process. So even if there is just a one percent shift it turns a projected landslide into 2004. The electoral vote distribution would be the exact same 286-252 as four years ago, but Barack Obama would still garner enough electoral votes to win the presidential race. Is there a Bradley effect? Is there not a Bradley effect? Well, if it is only an average effect, then it could make things a bit more interesting come November 4.

Changes (Bradley Effect = 1%)
State	Before	After
Colorado	Obama lean	Toss Up Obama
Florida	Toss Up Obama	Toss Up McCain
Indiana	Toss Up McCain	McCain lean
Minnesota	Strong Obama	Obama lean
Nevada	Toss Up Obama	Toss Up McCain
Ohio	Toss Up Obama	Toss Up McCain
Wisconsin	Strong Obama	Obama lean

There is a caveat to all this, though. Hopkins also draws a distinction between the presence of a Bradley effect when a candidate is already behind in the polls and when it is in place for a candidate who is the front-runner in one of these senate or gubernatorial races. Those front-runners also have some inflation in their pre-election poll numbers -- most tend to anyway. Hopkins makes the argument that those minority candidates who have pre-election poll leads have two effects to deal with: the Bradley effect and this front-runner effect [a bandwagon effect of sorts]. But within that line of argument, he splits the data into two samples -- those behind in the polls to begin with and those who fairly consistently clear the 50% barrier in those pre-election polls -- to make a broader point on the front-runner candidates. At the descriptive statistics level, Hopkins informs us that in those front-runner, Bradley effect races, African American candidates see a 1.9% disparity between what the polls say prior to an election and what the vote outcome will be. If we extend that basic finding to FHQ's electoral college map, we see a few additional changes to the map immediately above.

[Click Map to Enlarge]

What we find is that when it is assumed that there is a two point Bradley effect placed on the current electoral vote distribution, an additional set of states shift categories. But there are not any additional states that cross the partisan line. Virginia comes very close, but based on the strength of the post-Lehman polling in the state, Virginia remains within the Obama toss up category. And while the overall electoral vote distribution is unchanged, a handful of states are safer for McCain by virtue of the two point Bradley effect. Montana and West Virginia become strong McCain states and North Carolina shifts out of the toss up category and takes its fifteen electoral votes into McCain lean territory. New Hampshire remains blue, but is much more competitive as a result.

Changes (Bradley Effect = 2%)
State	Before	After
Montana	McCain lean	Strong McCain
New Hampshire	Obama lean	Toss Up Obama
North Carolina	Toss Up McCain	McCain lean
West Virginia	McCain lean	Strong McCain

Alright. Case closed. Even if there is a two point Bradley effect -- one that doesn't even attempt to separate the front-runner effect out -- Obama continues to hold enough of a lead in the electoral college to win the race. Yes, that's true, but there is one major problem with how we have set this up thus far. The assumption in both scenarios above is that the effect applies evenly to all states. It is safe to say that that just isn't the case. A Bradley effect in Idaho is likely going to be different from a Bradley effect in Georgia.

But how do we determine how the effect would vary from state to state? Well, it isn't a stretch to hypothesize that race is likely an important determinant of that variation. In fact, as an extension of the Schaller hypothesis we discussed a few days ago in the comments section, we can argue that the Bradley effect is higher in states where the African American population is high. Now, the Schaller argument is that the support for a minority candidate among white voters holds a negative relationship with the percentage of a state's population that is black; that as a state's percentage of African Americans increases, support among white voters -- for the Democratic candidate -- decreases. That doesn't necessarily jibe well with an idea that inadvertently puts social pressure on survey respondents to say they support a minority candidate when they don't. However, it could certainly be argued that it is in this situation, where the greatest potential for the Bradley effect resides. If there are more African Americans and thus greater interaction between the races, then there is, by extension, a greater potential for these social pressures to cause a discrepancy between pre-election poll numbers and the tally of votes cast.

What we can do, then, is weight two percent Bradley effect that Hopkins finds in the cases of African American candidates who are also front-runners in their senate or gubernatorial races. If two percent is the average Bradley effect in those situations, then how can we go about weighting or discounting states based on the percentage of their population that is African American? First, we can use the 2007 Census estimate of the population to determine that figure for each state (as recently as possible). We can then construct a weight by standardizing the Census data (by caluculating a z-score for each state's data) and applying it to the average Bradley effect from Hopkins. The result is a Bradley effect range from 1.05% in Montana to 4.28% in Mississippi based on a state's proportion of African Americans. If we then apply this Schaller Weighting structure to the electoral college map, we set yet another set of changes.

[Click Map to Enlarge]

Now Virginia switches over into the McCain toss up category and the Old Dominion's 13 electoral votes tighten the electoral college distribution even more. But a trio of states with lower relative African American populations -- Montana, New Hampshire and West Virginia -- now are not affected as greatly as they were when it was assumed that the Bradley effect was the same for all states. New Hampshire remains an Obama lean and both Montana and West Virginia stay in the McCain lean category.

Changes (Bradley Effect = Weighted by % Pop. Black)
State	Before	After
Montana	Strong McCain	McCain lean
New Hampshire	Toss Up Obama	Obama lean
Virginia	Toss Up Obama	Toss Up McCain
West Virginia	Strong McCain	McCain lean

Essentially what has happened by assuming that there is an average Bradley effect of 2% that is weighted according to a state's African American population is that the race has been returned to its post-convention/pre-Lehman level, at least in terms of the electoral vote distribution. Obama would win by the slimmest of margins -- well, among the slimmest of margins -- if the votes were cast according to the map above.

While one and two percent effects don't seem like that much they have the effect of shifting the race back to where it was prior to the pre-economic collapse level. And the perception of that change has been that we have witnessed a pretty large shift in terms of the electoral college over the last month. Will there be a Bradley effect? I don't know, but there are certainly strains of arguments of both sides. Regardless, if there was a Bradley effect at play in 2008, and it was on par with what we have seen in other races -- on average -- over the last twenty years, it would have an impact but wouldn't necessarily change the outlook on what the outcome is likely to be on November 4.

UPDATE: The discussion on this in the comments section has been instructive thus far. What if, as I said, the Schaller hypothesis and the Bradley effect don't naturally wed themselves? What if, as SarahLawrenceScott says, it is more a matter of perceptions in the whitest states that would drive a potential Bradley effect as opposed to those normalized perceptions in states with higher proportions of African Americans? Well, let's have a look. If we take the Census figures on the white populations in the states, we can construct a similar measure to the one above. Can we expect whiter states like New Hampshire to get tighter and plains and prairie states to potential move further into the McCain column?

[Click Map to Enlarge]

That's exactly what we see. All the changes on the previous hypothetical are reversed. Most consequentially, this brings Virginia back into the blue. But New Hampshire becomes much closer as does Colorado, which would be on the Watch List to cross the partisan line into McCain territory if there was the actual map. Also, Missouri and Iowa (roughly a couple of plains states, though folks in Missouri may disagree with that) and Montana and North Dakota move toward McCain. Missouri, Montana and North Dakota -- along with West Virginia -- become safer for McCain while Iowa is less so for Obama.

North Carolina has been a topic of conversation here at FHQ recently, and while the effect is lessened in this fourth scenario, it is still great enough to push the Tar Heel state into the McCain lean category.

Changes (Bradley Effect = Weighted by % Pop. White)
State	Before	After
Iowa	Strong Obama	Obama lean
Missouri	Toss Up McCain	McCain lean
Montana	McCain lean	Strong McCain
New Hampshire	Obama lean	Toss Up Obama
North Dakota	McCain lean	Strong McCain
Virginia	Toss Up McCain	Toss Up Obama
West Virginia	McCain lean	Strong McCain

The underlying conclusion is the same, though. Even if there is some Bradley effect, it is not likely to change the outlook for the election. Obama is in a good position to win on November 4 unless there is an above average Bradley effect involved. But as Hopkins suggests, after about 1996, these effects decreased in a noticeable way in the senate and gubernatorial races he examined.


*The basic concept is that a minority candidate's poll numbers run above where the electoral outcome ends up. Survey respondents feel a sort of social pressure to say that they are voting for the minority candidate when in actuality they are not.

I want take an opportunity to thank Del Dunn at the University of Georgia for planting the basis of the Schaller idea discussed above in my head in a water cooler conversation we had. In addition, I'd like to thank Anon3:58 and SarahLawrenceScott for their contributions to the updated version of the analysis.


Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (10/22/08)

Map Update Coming...

The Electoral College Map (10/21/08)

The Electoral College Map (10/22/08)

Lots to look at today. There were 22 new polls out on Tuesday in 17 states, but what was different between the Tuesday polls and those that preceded them on Monday was that we got a broader sample of types of states on Tuesday. So, we got polls from Florida and North Carolina and Colorado, but there were also polls from Illinois and South Dakota and South Carolina. In the case of the latter group, we get a chance to see whether there was any continued post-Lehman movement in the polls in strong states or whether they held pat.

New Polls (Oct. 21)
State	Poll	Margin
Alaska	Moore	+11
Colorado	Insider Advantage	+5
Florida	Public Policy Polling	+1
Illinois	Chicago Tribune	+24
Indiana	Public Policy Polling	+2
Kentucky	Survey USA	+13
Maine	Survey USA	+15
Nevada	Insider Advantage	0
New Jersey	Monmouth	+17
New Jersey	Quinnipiac	+23
North Carolina	Civitas	+3
North Carolina	Survey USA	0
North Carolina	Insider Advantage	+1
Oklahoma	Survey USA	+24
Oklahoma	TvPoll	+31.3
Pennsylvania	Muhlenberg College	+10
South Carolina	Rasmussen	+11
South Dakota	Mason-Dixon	+7
Vermont	Macro International	+22
West Virginia	Rasmussen	+9
Wyoming	Survey USA	+21
Wyoming	Mason-Dixon	+26

The Moore poll in Alaska is interesting. The tables there tell the tale. Since the Palin selection, McCain's numbers in the Last Frontier have remained virtually unchanged, but there has been a drop in the undecideds total and it is all going to Obama. That isn't enough to put Obama over the top there, but it is an interesting development in light of the state's popular governor being on the GOP ticket. Red state margins were down in South Carolina and South Dakota as well. The effect is more pronounced in South Dakota, where the Mount Rushmore state appears to be following its northern neighbor in the polls. But as was the case with our discussion of Virginia and North Carolina the other day, the starting position for both Dakotas was different. There have been more hints of competitiveness in North Dakota than in South Dakota, but neither would be especially close if the election were held today (...and assuming these averages are accurate). Both would be closer than they have been in quite a while but not close enough for the Democrats.

Changes (Oct. 21)
State	Before	After
Indiana	McCain lean	Toss Up McCain

But what about the toss up states? Well, that group adds one more today. Indiana, after moving into the McCain lean category following the lowering of the lean/toss up threshold last week, is now back in the toss up category. The Public Policy Polling survey of the Hoosier state showed Obama with a slight lead there and pulled Indiana off the line between the two categories and into toss up status. Indiana, like Missouri, is much more likely to move more based on new polling. The two of those states have far fewer polls than is the case in North Carolina. If, then, those +2 margins were to continue for Obama in Indiana, that one could close pretty quickly. However, is that more a typical narrowing effect or a complete switch-over? Given that Obama is ahead -- and yes it is in just one poll -- that indicates the latter. As always, though, we'll need more data from the Hoosier state to tell for sure.

[Click Map to Enlarge]

McCain, then, loses 11 electoral votes from his "safer" total (strong plus lean states) and is now over 100 electoral votes down in the comparison of his total (163) to Obama's (273). Overall though, the projection still stands at 338-200 in favor of the Illinois senator. The GOP has argued that the CNN reports that the McCain campaign was pulling out of Colorado, Iowa and New Mexico were false, but all three continue to be uphill climbs for the McCain campaign. If those three are out of the mix then the Arizona senator either has to sweep FHQ's toss up states or pick up any combination of them that along with Pennsylvania would push McCain over 270 electoral votes. Pulling out of Iowa and New Mexico may be wise, as those resources could be used in other areas, but Colorado seems to be an odd choice to back out on -- or even quietly talk about. Seth Masket over at Enik Rising is in Colorado and has a different take on the GOP's potential intent.

The Electoral College Spectrum*
HI-4 (7)**	ME-4 (157)	NH-4 (264/278)	WV-5 (160)	LA-9 (67)
VT-3 (10)	NJ-15 (172)	CO-9*** (273/274)	MT-3 (155)	KY-8 (58)
RI-4 (14)	OR-7 (179)	VA-13 (286/265)	GA-15 (152)	KS-6 (50)
MA-12 (26)	WA-11 (190)	NV-5 (291/252)	SD-3 (137)	TN-11 (44)
MD-10 (36)	IA-7 (197)	OH-20 (311/247)	MS-6 (134)	NE-5 (33)
IL-21 (57)	MN-10 (207)	FL-27 (338/227)	TX-34 (128)	AL-9 (28)
NY-31 (88)	WI-10 (217)	MO-11 (349/200)	AR-6 (94)	WY-3 (19)
DE-3 (91)	PA-21 (238)	NC-15 (364/189)	AK-3 (88)	ID-4 (16)
CT-7 (98)	NM-5 (243)	IN-11 (375/174)	SC-8 (85)	OK-7 (12)
CA-55 (153)	MI-17 (260)	ND-3 (163)	AZ-10 (77)	UT-5 (5)
*Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. **The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, McCain won all the states up to and including Colorado (all Obama's toss up states plus Colorado), he would have 274 electoral votes. Both candidates numbers are only totaled through their rival's toss up states. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and McCain's is on the right in italics. ***Colorado is the state where Obama crosses (or McCain would cross) the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. It is currently favoring Obama, thus the blue text in that cell.

Regardless, Colorado appears to be a vital piece to any combination of states that would get McCain an electoral college victory. We haven't discussed Colorado's position as the victory line in a while since the playing field shifted right, giving Obama the Virginia/Nevada/Ohio/Florida cushion, but the Centennial state still holds that distinction. If McCain can sweep the toss up states, he'd still need Colorado to get over the hump. With less than two weeks left in the race though, the options are growing fewer in number and the chances slim. As I argued a week ago when the category thresholds were lowered, three points is a lot to make up over the last two weeks and McCain would have to make up that much ground and more in states like Colorado or Pennsylvania to make the math work to his advantage in the electoral college.

The Watch List*
State	Switch
Colorado	from Obama lean	to Toss Up Obama
Florida	from Toss Up Obama	to Toss Up McCain
Indiana	from Toss Up McCain	to McCain lean
Minnesota	from Strong Obama	to Obama lean
Missouri	from Toss Up McCain	to Toss Up Obama
Nevada	from Toss Up Obama	to Toss Up McCain
New Mexico	from Obama lean	to Strong Obama
Ohio	from Toss Up Obama	to Toss Up McCain
Pennsylvania	from Obama lean	to Strong Obama
Virginia	from Toss Up Obama	to Obama lean
Wisconsin	from Strong Obama	to Obama lean
*Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

[On the Watch List, the standard line applies. Florida, Missouri, Nevada and Ohio are still the states to watch most closely when new polls are released. But as you may or may not have noticed, North Carolina is now off the list. The Tar Heel state continues to draw closer and is now far enough into the McCain toss up category that it is no longer imminently vulnerable to a switch into the McCain lean category.]

Now, there could be a Bradley/Wilder effect at work as well, and I'll look at some scenarios later on this afternoon, where that could make a difference in this race. Under what circumstances and to what effect does that phenonmenon bring McCain back into the race in some states and make the race more competitive?


Recent Posts:
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The Electoral College Map (10/21/08)

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