FHQ vs. The Talking Heads

No, I have no idea what David Byrne's thoughts on the electoral college are. [Let's see how many folks get that reference.] However, let's compare and contrast what things look like on our map compared to some others "in the know". If you're here, you've likely seen our map before, but I'll reproduce it here just because (...I like maps).

[Click Map to Enlarge]

This isn't our final map, projection or prediction, but the electoral vote count above isn't likely to change between now and Tuesday. For the time being, though, let's assume this is how FHQ will project/predict things to be Tuesday night. How do some of those other predictions look by comparison?

George Will (on ABC's THis Week): 378 electoral votes for Obama (included North Dakota "for fun" and all the McCain toss up states, though he said Indiana or Missouri. Obama would need both to get to 378.)

Matthew Dowd (on ABC's This Week): 338 EVs (The same as our map. See, I told you FHQ was among the more conservative electoral college estimates.)

Mark Halperin (on ABC's This Week): 349 EVs (FHQ map + Indiana or Missouri. He didn't specify which.)

Donna Brazile (on ABC's This Week): 343 EVs (I'm still trying to figure out where she came up with this number. She didn't specify either. The best I can do is to add North Carolina to Obama's total on the FHQ map and subtract Nevada and New Mexico.) Or as W. Mayes pointed out: FHQ's map + Indiana, Missouri and North Carolina - Florida and Nevada.

George Stephanopoulos (on ABC's This Week): 353 EVs (FHQ's map + North Carolina.)

Yeah, can you tell I watched ABC's Sunday morning show? The following is a reproduction of a collection of predictions from the Washington Post (The contents of the parentheticals below are my best guess as to what states comprise the electoral coalitions in each prediction.) :

Chris Cillizza: 312 EVs (FHQ's map - Florida = 311 + a Nebraska congressional district?)
Here's an update of Cillizza's map over at The Fix. He's flipped Florida and Ohio and bumped Obama up to 319 EVs in the process. Florida is now blue and Ohio is red. And yes, he's got Nebraska's 2nd District going to Obama.

Erick Erickson: 311 EVs (FHQ's map - Florida)

Arianna Huffington: 318 EVs (FHQ's map - Ohio) Edit: As Jack pointed out in the comments, Huffington has Georgia as a wildcard win for Obama. You can see my interpretation here. That's a weird map.

Charles Mahtesian: 311 EVs (FHQ's map - Florida)

Ed Morrissey: 262 EVs (FHQ's map - all the Obama toss ups - Colorado, Virginia, New Hampshire and DC) DC? Yeah, that's all I can come up with. McCain only has 273 in that prediction. DC is the only one I could think of that a GOP blogger would like to omit.

Markos Moulitsas: 390 EVs (FHQ's map + McCain toss ups + Georgia)

Nate Silver: 347 EVs (FHQ's map + North Carolina, Indiana and Montana or North Dakota - Ohio)

Fred Barnes: 252 EVs (FHQ's map - Obama toss ups - Virginia and Pennsylvania)

Eleanor Clift: 349 EVs (FHQ's map + North Carolina - New Hampshire) Why not add in Indiana or Missouri and be done with it? The link above has her calling for an Obama win in the Tar Heel state. That's why.

Morton Kondrache: 379 EVs (FHQ's map + McCain toss ups + Montana or North Dakota + Nebraska congressional district?)

Bill Maher?: 375 EVs (FHQ's map + McCain toss ups)

Chris Matthews: 338 EVs (FHQ's map)

Ed Rollins: 353 EVs (FHQ's map + North Carolina)

Juan Williams: 326 EVs (FHQ's map + North Carolina - Florida)

----------------------------------------------
UPDATE: Rob has added a link to Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball prediction in the comments.

Larry Sabato: 364 EVs (FHQ's map + Missouri and North Carolina)

-----------------------------------------------
The average across all 19 20 predictions? 336 337.4 EVs. Change or not, 338 here at FHQ isn't half bad. If that ended up being right and if I were one to mock, I may be inclined to redub FHQ, ThreeThirtyEight.com. But I'm one who dances with the one who brung me, and FHQ has brought me this far.


Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (11/2/08)

The Electoral College Map (11/1/08)

Happy Halloween from FHQ

The Electoral College Map (11/2/08)

Saturday brought 17 new polls from 14 states, and of those polls, few did anything to in any way shake the weighted averages from their foundations. Sure, there was the ARG poll out of Arkansas showing the McCain margin there at just seven, but you'll excuse me if I push that result off to the side based on the "boy who cried wolf" rule. ARG has made it difficult at times to take their numbers seriously. Most generally hover around where other polling firms have the states, but they also have results like that West Virginia +8 for Obama a couple of weeks back. All this Arkansas poll is doing is getting Democrats' hopes up (kind of like Chuck Todd referencing the closeness of South Carolina for the second week in a row on Meet the Press). Now, I could be wrong, but the data/methodology FHQ is working with is telling us otherwise with just two days left in this thing.

New Polls (Nov. 1)
State	Poll	Margin
Arkansas	ARG	+7
California	Survey USA	+24
Florida	Datamar	0
Florida	Mason-Dixon	+2
Florida	ARG	+4
Indiana	ARG	0
Iowa	Selzer	+17
Kentucky*	Research 2000/Daily Kos	+17
Michigan	Selzer	+16
Minnesota*	Research 2000/Daily Kos	+15
New Jersey	Monmouth	+21
New Mexico	Survey USA	+7
Oregon*	Research 2000/Daily Kos	+16
Oregon	Rasmussen	+12
Pennsylvania	ARG	+6
Pennsylvania	Rasmussen	+4
South Dakota	Rasmussen	+9
Utah	Dan Jones	+25
Virginia	Mason-Dixon	+3
Washington	University of Washington	+12
*Denotes a poll that was included in yesterday's graphics but omitted from the table of polls.

With that in mind, the strong states form a baseline for each candidate. Obama is ahead in our count there by 259-152. Once the focus shifts beyond that to the next layer is where we have to add some caveats. There are relatively few lean states on both sides, but the ones on the McCain side of the partisan line are being brought up in terms of going to Obama more than the opposite (Obama leans to McCain) simply because of where the last minute momentum appears to be. In other words, the battle here at the end is in states that McCain is seeking to keep in red. If you look back to four years ago, John Kerry was in a similar position, playing defense to keep states like Pennsylvania in the blue. The discussion then is more about North Dakota or Montana going to Obama than McCain being able to peel off Colorado. But that may be more a function of McCain needing a state like Colorado than anything else. The media have certainly shifted from discussing those McCain scenarios to focus on where Obama can potentially run up the score.

Changes (Nov. 1)
State	Before	After
New Mexico	Strong Obama	Obama lean

Yes, McCain is still targeting Pennsylvania and New Hampshire (beyond lean state status as strong states), but to reach 270 electoral votes, the Arizona senator will need one or both to get there. The 72 hour campaign, then, is centered a bit right of center on the Electoral College Spectrum below, among the toss up states and some/all of those McCain lean states. In terms of adding to that baseline, then, Obama is in a superior position relative to McCain. The Illinois senator is ahead in more toss up states, and should Tuesday turn into a wave election, he could swing the remaining toss up states on McCain side of the partisan line and stretch into the lean states as well. Some of the more optimistic scenarios have Obama extending into the strong McCain area as well.

[Incidentally, if you haven't checked out the comments from yesterday's map update, do so and weigh in on what you think both Obama's ceiling and floor are in terms of the number of electoral college votes. Administrative Note: No, that may not appear fair. But at this point, after we have in various ways covered/dismissed many of the possible McCain victory scenarios, and considering an Obama win is likely given the current data, the focus is on Obama's floor/ceiling rather than McCain's.]

[Click Map to Enlarge]

As it stands now, though, the tally remains steady at 338-200 for Obama. New Mexico shifted back into the Obama lean category a day after the PPP poll in the Land of Enchantment vaulted the state into the strong Obama category. This is one of the potential weaknesses of our methodology: that when the most heavily weighted poll is an outlier -- as that PPP poll seems to have been -- the average can jump more than it likely should and pull a state into another category in the process. That was the case with New Mexico yesterday/today. With a ten point spread between those last two polls (+17 to +7), there was going to be a drop in the average. And that drop brought the average to a point just below that strong/lean threshold (+6.98 for Obama).

The Electoral College Spectrum*
HI-4 (7)**	ME-4 (157)	NM-5 (264/279)	MT-3 (160)	AK-3 (61)
VT-3 (10)	OR-7 (164)	CO-9*** (273/274)	WV-5 (157)	KY-8 (58)
NY-31 (41)	NJ-15 (179)	VA-13 (286/265)	GA-15 (152)	TN-11 (50)
DE-3 (44)	WA-11 (190)	NV-5 (291/252)	AZ-10 (137)	KS-6 (39)
IL-21 (65)	IA-7 (197)	OH-20 (311/247)	SD-3 (127)	NE-5 (33)
RI-4 (69)	MN-10 (207)	FL-27 (338/227)	MS-6 (124)	AL-9 (28)
MD-10 (79)	WI-10 (217)	NC-15 (353/200)	AR-6 (118)	WY-3 (19)
MA-12 (91)	PA-21 (238)	MO-11 (364/185)	LA-9 (112)	ID-4 (16)
CA-55 (146)	MI-17 (255)	IN-11 (375/174)	TX-34 (103)	UT-5 (12)
CT-7 (153)	NH-4 (259)	ND-3 (163)	SC-8 (69)	OK-7 (7)
*Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. **The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, McCain won all the states up to and including Colorado (all Obama's toss up states plus Colorado), he would have 274 electoral votes. Both candidates numbers are only totaled through their rival's toss up states. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and McCain's is on the right in italics. ***Colorado is the state where Obama crosses (or McCain would cross) the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. It is currently favoring Obama, thus the blue text in that cell.

With all that said, New Mexico once again jumps to the top of the middle column on the Electoral College Spectrum, just above Colorado. Arkansas also moves up a couple of spots on the strength of that ARG poll (which may be the final word out of the Natural state). Other than that, though, the map and the Spectrum remain decidedly unaltered. Yes, our measure stresses a certain level of consistency, but at the same time, that steadiness has held pat in many cases for quite a while (Pardon the borderline redundance). That more than anything tells us something about the current state of the race with just 48 hours to go. Obama is not only in the lead, he has a lead that will going to be tough to overcome.

The Watch List*
State	Switch
Arizona	from Strong McCain	to McCain lean
Florida	from Toss Up Obama	to Toss Up McCain
Georgia	from Strong McCain	to McCain lean
Michigan	from Strong Obama	to Obama lean
Missouri	from Toss Up McCain	to Toss Up Obama
Nevada	from Toss Up Obama	to Obama lean
New Hampshire	from Strong Obama	to Obama lean
New Mexico	from Obama lean	to Strong Obama
North Carolina	from Toss Up McCain	to Toss Up Obama
Ohio	from Toss Up Obama	to Obama lean
Virginia	from Obama lean	to Toss Up Obama
West Virginia	from McCain lean	to Strong McCain
*Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

As I said yesterday, even if the most likely changes were to occur -- those in the Watch List -- it would net McCain just one additional electoral vote. Even if only the most advantageous changes occur (Florida turns pink and Missouri and North Carolina stay McCain toss ups), that only knocks Obama's tally down to 311 electoral votes. And that, my friends, is still north of 270.

Two days left.

------------------------------------------------------
Postscript: I should make a note on Virginia. The last three polls (Friday's Rasmussen poll, Saturday's Mason-Dixon poll and today's Survey USA poll) all show the race in the Old Dominion narrowing. Virginia had been immune to the typical contraction that we see overall down the stretch, but may have entered into that phase now. While you may start seeing some other electoral college analysis sites start to come back, you likely won't see that here. All three polls are at or around the state's +3.33 average margin for Obama. In other words, Virginia is not that likely dip below that 3 point lean/toss up threshold between now and Tuesday.


Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (11/1/08)

Happy Halloween from FHQ

The Electoral College Map (10/31/08)

The Electoral College Map (11/1/08)

It must be crunch time because an atypically heavy day of polling on Friday gave us some last minute ideas about where this race for the White House is headed. There continues to be some tightening in some of the McCain states. The most troubling Obama margin closer continues to be John McCain's home state of Arizona. In the Grand Canyon state some of the margins continue to come in under the margin of error, meaning that if the shift of the +/- MOE was toward Obama, then the race would be a virtual tie. And that really isn't the final weekend news the Arizona senator would have envisioned for himself.

New Polls (Oct. 31)
State	Poll	Margin
Alaska	Research 2000/Daily Kos	+19
Arizona	Research 2000/Daily Kos	+1
Arizona	ARG	+4
Colorado	Public Policy Polling	+10
Colorado	ARG	+4
Georgia	Research 2000/Daily Kos	+3
Georgia	Rasmussen	+5
Indiana	Downs/Survey USA	0
Iowa	Research 2000	+14
Kentucky	Mason-Dixon	+9
Kentucky	Research 2000/Daily Kos	+15
Michigan	Public Policy Polling	+13
Minnesota	Public Policy Polling	+16
Mississippi	Research 2000/Daily Kos	+13
Missouri	ARG	0
Missouri	Insider Advantage	+3
Montana	ARG	+3
Montana	Research 2000/Daily Kos	+4
New Hampshire	ARG	+15
New Hampshire	Research 2000	+7
New Hampshire	Survey USA	+11
New Hampshire	Rasmussen	+7
New Jersey	Fairleigh-Dickinson	+18
New Jersey	Survey USA	+11
New Mexico	Public Policy Polling	+17
North Carolina	Civitas	+1
North Carolina	Elon	+7
North Carolina	Insider Advantage	0
North Carolina	Research 2000/Daily Kos	+2
North Dakota	Research 2000/Daily Kos	+1
Ohio	Ohio University	+16
Oregon	Hibbitts/Portland Tribune	+19
Oregon	Survey USA	+19
Oregon	Public Policy Polling	+15
Pennsylvania	Muhlenberg College	+10
Wisconsin	University of Wisconsin	+10
Wyoming	Research 2000/Daily Kos	+25

But Arizona wasn't all there was to the red state tightening. Montana and North Dakota along with Georgia -- all states the Obama campaign had targeted earlier in the year with their initial general election ad buy -- are all closing toward a dead heat at just the right time for Obama (or the worst time if you're McCain). Montana and North Dakota were already designated as McCain lean states, but both Arizona and Georgia are closing in on that distinction as well. Given where we've set the category thresholds in the post-debate, closing argument portion of the race, that seems like a pretty large margin to overcome. However, if Tuesday turns into a bandwagon effect election Obama may be able to push into those states -- the leans plus Arizona and Georgia. But that is likely the ceiling of what Obama can achieve on November 4. [I'll open it up the comments section for folks to weigh in on what they suspect is the Obama floor for Tuesday. Is it over 270 electoral votes now, or is that too extreme?]

Changes (Oct. 31)
State	Before	After
Michigan	Obama lean	Strong Obama
New Mexico	Obama lean	Strong Obama

But as was the case with Thursday's poll releases, Friday was full of blue states moving even further into Obama territory with nary a hint of movement toward McCain. Again, not good news for the McCain campaign. Even in upset scenarios, you'd like to the have at least something meaningful trending your way during the last 96 hours or so of the campaign. There is absolutely no consistent let up in the support level for Obama in what is now the most crucial state to John McCain's chances, Pennsylvania.

[Click Map to Enlarge]

Even with Pennsylvania, McCain is up against the wall with the way the data shakes out after Friday. Both Michigan and New Mexico shift into the strong Obama category bringing the Illinois senator's total of electoral votes in just that category to 264 -- six shy of a victory. And that's not even counting any of the lean states or toss up states where Obama is ahead. If McCain were to win Pennsylvania but lose those Obama leans -- Colorado and Virginia -- that would put Obama just five electoral votes short of the goal. And oddly enough, as Scott points out, Nevada represents that exact number of electoral votes. With the high number of early voters in the Silver state trending Democratic, the door is quickly slamming on McCain before election day rolls around.

The Electoral College Spectrum*
HI-4 (7)**	ME-4 (157)	NH-4 (264/278)	MT-3 (160)	AK-3 (61)
VT-3 (10)	OR-7 (164)	CO-9*** (273/274)	WV-5 (157)	KY-8 (58)
NY-31 (41)	WA-11 (175)	VA-13 (286/265)	GA-15 (152)	TN-11 (50)
DE-3 (44)	NJ-15 (190)	NV-5 (291/252)	AZ-10 (137)	KS-6 (39)
IL-21 (65)	IA-7 (197)	OH-20 (311/247)	SD-3 (127)	NE-5 (33)
RI-4 (69)	MN-10 (207)	FL-27 (338/227)	MS-6 (124)	AL-9 (28)
MD-10 (79)	WI-10 (217)	NC-15 (353/200)	LA-9 (118)	WY-3 (19)
MA-12 (91)	PA-21 (238)	MO-11 (364/185)	TX-34 (109)	ID-4 (16)
CA-55 (146)	NM-5 (243)	IN-11 (375/174)	AR-6 (75)	UT-5 (12)
CT-7 (153)	MI-17 (260)	ND-3 (163)	SC-8 (69)	OK-7 (7)
*Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. **The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, McCain won all the states up to and including Colorado (all Obama's toss up states plus Colorado), he would have 274 electoral votes. Both candidates numbers are only totaled through their rival's toss up states. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and McCain's is on the right in italics. ***Colorado is the state where Obama crosses (or McCain would cross) the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. It is currently favoring Obama, thus the blue text in that cell.

As it stands now, Obama is in a very comfortable position in this race. His lead in our projections still stands at 338-200, and the fact that the dark blue color of the Obama strong states has now stretched to the middle column of the Electoral College Spectrum is indicative of the just how far McCain will have to come to win this. It would be a "from out of of nowhere moment" to be sure; one far outpacing either McCain's comeback from the depths of summer 2007 to claim the GOP nomination or the New Hampshire performance in 2000.

The Watch List*
State	Switch
Arizona	from Strong McCain	to McCain lean
Florida	from Toss Up Obama	to Toss Up McCain
Georgia	from Strong McCain	to McCain lean
Michigan	from Strong Obama	to Obama lean
Missouri	from Toss Up McCain	to Toss Up Obama
Nevada	from Toss Up Obama	to Obama lean
New Hampshire	from Strong Obama	to Obama lean
New Mexico	from Strong Obama	to Obama lean
North Carolina	from Toss Up McCain	to Toss Up Obama
Ohio	from Toss Up Obama	to Obama lean
Virginia	from Obama lean	to Toss Up Obama
West Virginia	from McCain lean	to Strong McCain
*Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

That's what it is going to take for McCain to win it seems. There just isn't that much time and there just aren't enough crucial states trending in his direction for a McCain victory to seem feasible. Even if all the most likely moves occurred -- those on the Watch List above -- it would be a wash. McCain would win Florida back but lose Missouri and North Carolina in the process. [Yes, North Carolina is now not only on the Watch List for a potential switch into the blue, but it is also the closest of the McCain states at this point, passing Missouri for that honor.] That's a net gain of one electoral vote for McCain. And that's just not going to do it.


Recent Posts:
Happy Halloween from FHQ

The Electoral College Map (10/31/08)

A November Surprise Scenario

Happy Halloween from FHQ

Celebrating the only way we know how...

[Click Map to Enlarge]

Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (10/31/08)

A November Surprise Scenario

National and State-Level Factors in US Presidential Election Outcomes: An Electoral College Forecast Model

The Electoral College Map (10/31/08)

Happy Halloween! We've made it almost all the way through October with no surprises. That either means that the door has been opened up to a November surprise or that Joe the Plumber was the October surprise. For those looking for a last minute costume idea, just do what I'm doing tonight: break out your plunger and go as Joe. [Yeah, my kids need one more campaign reference in their lives right now. Poor kids. My daughter actually asked me if Obama and McCain were coming to her birthday party. No, but Joe the Plumber might!]

New Polls (Oct. 30)
State	Poll	Margin
Arizona	CNN	+7
Arizona	Mason-Dixon/NBC	+4
California	Field	+22
Colorado	National Journal	+4
Colorado	Marist	+6
Florida	National Journal	+1
Idaho	Harstad	+23
Indiana	Selzer	+0.6
Indiana	Rasmussen	+3
Iowa	Survey USA	+15
Kentucky	Rasmussen	+12
Louisiana	Loyola	+3
Michigan	EPIC/MRA	+14
Michigan	Strategic Vision	+13
Minnesota	Mason-Dixon/NBC	+8
Minnesota	MPR	+19
Montana	Rasmussen	+4
Nevada	CNN	+7
New Hampshire	Suffolk	+13
New Hampshire	UNH	+18
New Hampshire	Strategic Vision	+9
New Jersey	Research 2000	+16
North Carolina	National Journal	+4
North Carolina	CNN	+6
North Carolina	Rasmussen	+2
Ohio	National Journal	+7
Ohio	CNN	+4
Oklahoma	Survey USA	+29
Pennsylvania	CNN	+12
Pennsylvania	Mason-Dixon/NBC	+4
Pennsylvania	Strategic Vision	+5
South Carolina	NBC	+11
South Carolina	Survey USA	+8
Texas	University of Texas	+11
Utah	Mason-Dixon	+23
Virginia	National Journal	+4
Virginia	Marist	+4
West Virginia	Public Policy Polling	+13
Wisconsin	Survey USA	+16

There were a ton of new polls out on Thursday; 39 in 25 states to be exact. The story, though, continues to be that there just isn't any perceptible tightening in the race for the White House. Sure, you can cherry pick results, but the overall picture shows the race continuing to trend toward Obama as opposed to being closer to a draw -- in most of the blue states at least. The polls out of Pennsylvania and Virginia were closer than they have been but are still outside of the margin of error for Obama.

Changes (Oct. 30)
State	Before	After
New Hampshire	Obama lean	Strong Obama

But in the red states, the story is different. No, not across the board, but there is some narrowing in many of the states outside of the far right column of the Electoral College Spectrum below. [Well, Obama keeping it under a 30 point margin in states like Idaho or Utah would resemble a narrowing effect, though it doesn't probably meet the criteria Jim Campbell had in mind when he described the phenomenon in the American Campaign.] It doesn't mean that states like Arizona, Louisiana or South Carolina are going to turn blue on Tuesday, rather it means they'll be much more "competitive" than they were just four years ago.

[Click Map to Enlarge]

Despite continued movement toward Obama on the state level, there wasn't really all that much to show for it. New Hampshire did slip into the strong Obama category, joining Pennsylvania as a former FHQ toss up turned strong Obama state. What is amazing is that some of the closest states from 2004 -- Iowa, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and now New Hampshire -- are solidly favoring the Democrats now. All, with the exception of Iowa, were Kerry states four years ago and are indicative of the favorable climate the Democrats have enjoyed in 2008. [And New Mexico, it should be noted, is on the Watch List for a potential shift into the strong Obama area.]

The Electoral College Spectrum*
HI-4 (7)**	ME-4 (157)	NM-5 (264/279)	MT-3 (160)	AK-3 (61)
VT-3 (10)	WA-11 (168)	CO-9*** (273/274)	WV-5 (157)	KY-8 (58)
NY-31 (41)	OR-7 (175)	VA-13 (286/265)	GA-15 (152)	TN-11 (50)
DE-3 (44)	NJ-15 (190)	NV-5 (291/252)	AZ-10 (137)	KS-6 (39)
IL-21 (65)	IA-7 (197)	OH-20 (311/247)	SD-3 (127)	NE-5 (33)
RI-4 (69)	MN-10 (207)	FL-27 (338/227)	MS-6 (124)	AL-9 (28)
MD-10 (79)	WI-10 (217)	MO-11 (349/200)	LA-9 (118)	WY-3 (19)
MA-12 (91)	PA-21 (238)	NC-15 (364/189)	TX-34 (109)	ID-4 (16)
CA-55 (146)	NH-4 (242)	IN-11 (375/174)	AR-6 (75)	UT-5 (12)
CT-7 (153)	MI-17 (259)	ND-3 (163)	SC-8 (69)	OK-7 (7)
*Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. **The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, McCain won all the states up to and including Colorado (all Obama's toss up states plus Colorado), he would have 274 electoral votes. Both candidates numbers are only totaled through their rival's toss up states. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and McCain's is on the right in italics. ***Colorado is the state where Obama crosses (or McCain would cross) the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. It is currently favoring Obama, thus the blue text in that cell.

New Hampshire's move doesn't change the electoral vote distribution (only Florida and Missouri will be able to do that between now and Tuesday, it appears) between the two candidates, but it does alter the Electoral College Spectrum from the way it has been (in that middle column) for weeks. We have seen some red states shuffle in and out of the bottom of that middle column but New Hampshire and Colorado have been the mainstays at the top. Not anymore. The Granite state switches positions with New Mexico, giving the area above the partisan line a distictly western flavor to it. And given the early voting in both Colorado and New Mexico, those two are virtually shut down for McCain. Obama has gotten solid turnout in early voting there and that coupled with the high overall early turnout is ominous news for the McCain campaign (as Scott has shown us).

The Watch List*
State	Switch
Florida	from Toss Up Obama	to Toss Up McCain
Georgia	from Strong McCain	to McCain lean
Michigan	from Obama lean	to Strong Obama
Missouri	from Toss Up McCain	to Toss Up Obama
Nevada	from Toss Up Obama	to Obama lean
New Hampshire	from Strong Obama	to Obama lean
New Mexico	from Obama lean	to Strong Obama
Ohio	from Toss Up Obama	to Obama lean
Virginia	from Obama lean	to Toss Up Obama
West Virginia	from McCain lean	to Strong McCain
*Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

As we head into the final weekend, then, the indications are that Obama is in a comfortable position with no readily available signs of that trend abating. As I said earlier, the thing now is to keep an eye on those toss up states and especially Florida and Missouri. Those two are the states most likely to change here at FHQ between now and Tuesday and shift electoral votes in the process. But keep in mind that these states are toss ups for a reason: they are close.

...and susceptible to a last minute November surprise? Maybe, maybe not.

One question for everyone to discuss in the comments (and it is something I brought up in the comments to the November surprise post):

What effect does that have on election day turnout?

1) It depresses turnout.

2) a) People say, "Hey, the lines will be short(er), why not go vote!"
or

b) "Wow! I want to be a part of this!"

Thoughts?


Recent Posts:
A November Surprise Scenario

National and State-Level Factors in US Presidential Election Outcomes: An Electoral College Forecast Model

The Electoral College Map (10/30/08)

A November Surprise Scenario

Over this past weekend we had a discussion going about the effect the presence of early voting in a state would have on the McCain campaign's home-stretch strategy. The basic hypothesis was that states with early voting -- where Barack Obama would have some votes in the bank heading into election day based on the advantage the Illinois senator has enjoyed in early voting -- would not be focused on as heavily as states where early voting and absentee voting were minimized. In other words, if something were to happen to change people's minds in some way, you'd get more bang for your buck if you were campaigning the hardest in states with as little early voting as possible. States like Pennsylvania and Virginia.

But we can push this concept a little further. And, in fact, SarahLawrenceScott has done just that. If we were to look at the early voting information we have access to so far in this cycle and gauge whether that looks like it is on track to surpass the numbers from 2004, we can then make some basic assumptions that may give us a better idea of why the McCain folks are focusing where they are focusing.

First, let's look at the assumptions Scott has put together:

1. Assume something triggers a 4% loss for Obama (this was roughly the size of the Rev. Wright/McCain clinches drop, the Palin drop, and Obama's "soft" support in current polls) whether an Obama revelation or some geopolitical. We'll call it a November surprise.
   
   
2. Assume a 2.5% overperformance for Obama in early voting. In other words it is not that a greater proportion of his supporters vote early, but rather that GOTV would push his numbers up in a state that had 100% early voting.
   
   
3. Assume 50% of undecideds who vote early go for Obama.
   
   
4. Assume that after the surprise, just 20% of election day undecideds go for Obama.

If you start off with the Pollster averages for each state and combine that with the above assumptions you end up with something like this:


If we take these new, post-November surprise state margins and apply the three-category thresholds that FHQ employs -- >7% = strong, 3-7% = lean, <3% = toss up -- we end up with a map that has toss ups that look an awful lot like the targets the McCain campaign has.

[Click Map to Enlarge]

Virginia would flip back to McCain. Pennsylvania would be much more competitive than what the polls show, as would Ohio. And Florida and Wisconsin would look like dead heats. It could be argued that, well, those are the toss ups anyway. Well yeah, except Minnesota, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin don't really fit the bill according to recent polling in each of those states. However, the goal is to consider not only the potential effect early voting has, but to ascertain whether strategically, the McCain campaign is hedging its bets, hoping for something akin to the George W. Bush drunk-driving revelation (Though, perhaps it would have to be bigger) that broke during the final weekend of the 2000 race, happening in this race. Maybe, maybe not, but the decision to focus resources on the three states I just brought up looks more rational in this light than it does on the surface.

NOTE: I want to thank Scott for putting this material together and sharing it will me. It really adds to the earlier early voting discussion we had.


Recent Posts:
National and State-Level Factors in US Presidential Election Outcomes: An Electoral College Forecast Model

The Electoral College Map (10/30/08)

Liveblog: The Obama Infomercial

National and State-Level Factors in US Presidential Election Outcomes: An Electoral College Forecast Model

The following is an electoral college forecasting model that grew out of a paper Paul-Henri Gurian and Damon Cann first presented at the Western Political Science Association meeting in San Diego, CA this past March. The inherent value of that paper was its power in explaining that the variation in the two-party vote shares over the last 15 presidential elections (1948-2004) was based on a combination of national and state-level factors, the latter of which were separated into long- and short-term influences. It is a natural extension, then, to utilize the data from those 15 elections to project the 2008 electoral college outcome.

What follows is a brief summary of the model and a discussion of some of the issues both Paul and Damon see in it. As Paul said, "The forecasts in the paper are really preliminary. However, if we wait a few months, till we've re-specified the model, it won't be a forecast anymore." Questions, comments and concerns can be left in the comments section. I will forward them to Paul and Damon.
There is no shortage of presidential election forecasting models, academic or otherwise. In 2008, there are at least 15 political science forecasts, the average of which shows Obama winning approximately 52% of the two-party vote. Most rely on some combination of economic factors, presidential approval and/or incumbency to explain vote shares in presidential elections. Those factors are completely national in scope and what is lost in the process are many of the relevant state-level variables that could play a role in determining the electoral outcome. To be sure, there are also forecasting models that include state-factors, but what Paul Gurian and Damon Cann have done is to draw a distinction between the long- and short-term, state-level influences. [You can view their forecasting paper here.] In much the same way that the past polls in FHQ's weighted averages serve as an anchor to the short-term fluctuations in state polling, the long-term factors included in this forecasting model allow for historical, state-level factors to serve as a baseline of sorts for their forecast.

Those same national factors, then, are included, but are buttressed by short-term, state-level impacts (state primary divisiveness, home state, home region, etc.) as well as some of the more historical, state-level influences (state partisanship and ideology, etc.) that play a role in explaining the variation in the shares of the two-party vote. [A more thorough description of the state-level factors can be found on p. 6-7 in the paper linked above.]

The beauty of this is that you get 51 different forecasts, not just one on the national level. And that is certainly more suitable to the electoral college system. Based on the included variables over the last fifteen presidential elections, a projection of the two-party vote in each state can be made. The results can be found on p. 10-11, but a map of those results is included below. [No, I can't help myself. I have to include a map.]

[Click Map to Enlarge]

The result is a rather close outcome between John McCain and Barack Obama. The line between a solid and a toss up state is whether a state's division of the two-vote is within the margin of error. You'll no doubt notice that there are several states that are on opposite sides of where they may be expected given other forecasts and projections. Iowa, New Hampshire and New Mexico, for example are shaded in red while Arkansas, North Dakota and West Virginia appear in Obama's column.

Here are some caveats that Damon adds:

A few thoughts on the states:

NV: I think the "home region" variable swings the prediction for NV
toward McCain more than has actually happened in this instance.
Without that, McCain would still be in the margin of error.

AR and ND both had strong Democratic showings in House and Senate
races in 2006/2004, probably stronger than past history would suggest
for those states. Plus AR has the Democratic history from the "old
south" and our fixed effects may be picking that up a bit with the
1948-1970s elections.

I think NH is just a matter of history--while they went for Clinton in
'92 and '96, prior to that they only went to a Democrat once, Johnson
in '64. While NH has been battleground recently, our fixed effect
(based on all elections in the sample) moves NH just outside the
margin of error.

FL is probably similar. Like NH, most of the variables for 2008
suggest it ought to be perhaps R leaning but still battleground.
However, the fixed-effect for FL slides it about 2 points closer to
McCain.

I re-ran the model dropping the fixed effects, but that decreases the
general predictive power of the model by about 10%, seemingly
generating more error than it would eliminate.

Also, thinking about this statistically, since our margin of error is
based in the 95% level of confidence and we're making 50 forecasts, we
should actually expect to see 2.5 (OK, let's call that 2-3) of our
predictions that are significantly different from 50% by sampling
error alone. But since these errors are random, they should cancel
each other out in the EC tally (as long as it's not CA that is one
error and WY as the other).

I finally re-ran the model using national fatalities per 100,000
rather than state-level fatalities. The coefficient still comes out
insignificant statistically.

I want to thank both Paul and Damon for sharing this and I hope that we can get a good discussion going that will generate some helpful feedback.


Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (10/30/08)

Liveblog: The Obama Infomercial

Update(s): The Electoral College from a Different Angle