Thursday, August 25, 2011

The 2012 Presidential Primary Calendar (8/25/11)

The decision by Kansas Republicans to hold March 10 caucuses slightly alters the 2012 presidential primary calendar:

Notes: Check out FHQ's primer on when the remaining states will likely decide on dates.

Download FHQ's calendar for iCal or Outlook or see it on Google Calendar.


[Click to Enlarge]


Reading the Map:

As was the case with the maps from past cycles, the earlier a contest is scheduled in 2012, the darker the color in which the state is shaded. Iowa, for instance, is a much deeper shade of blue in January than South Dakota is in June. There are, however, some differences between the earlier maps and the one that appears above.

  1. Several caucus states have yet to select a date for the first step of their delegate selection processes in 2012. Until a decision is made by state parties in those states, they will appear in gray on the map.
  2. The states where legislation to move the presidential primary is active are two-toned. One color indicates the timing of the primary according to the current law whereas the second color is meant to highlight the most likely month to which the primary could be moved. [With the exception of North Carolina, the proposed movement is backward.]
  3. Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina are shaded on the map according to the latest possible date these states would have if Florida opts not to move their primary into compliance with the national party rules. Iowa Republicans and Nevada Republicans and Democrats have decided to accept the party-designated dates, but FHQ operates under the assumption that both will move to a point ahead of the earliest exempt state should one or more move or maintain a February or earlier date.
  4. States that are bisected vertically are states where the state parties have different dates for their caucuses and/or primaries. The left hand section is shaded to reflect the state Democratic Party's scheduling while the right is for the state Republican Party's decision on the timing of its delegate selection event.


Reading the Calendar:

  1. Caucus states are italicized while primary states are not. Several caucus states are missing from the list because they have not formalized the date on which their contests will be held in 2012. Colorado appears because the caucuses dates there are set by the state, whereas a state like Alaska has caucuses run by the state parties and as such do not have their dates codified in state law.
  2. States that have changed dates appear twice (or more) on the calendar; once by the old date and once by the new date. The old date will be struck through while the new date will be color-coded with the amount of movement (in days) in parentheses. States in green are states that have moved to earlier dates on the calendar and states in red are those that have moved to later dates. Arkansas, for example, has moved its 2012 primary and moved it back 104 days from its 2008 position.
  3. The date of any primary or caucus moves that have taken place -- whether through gubernatorial signature or state party move -- also appear in parentheses following the state's/party's new entry on the calendar.
  4. States with active legislation have links to those bills included with their entries on the calendar. If there are multiple bills they are divided by chamber and/or numbered accordingly.
  5. Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina appear twice. The earlier entry corresponds with the latest possible date these states would have if Florida opts not to move their primary into compliance with the national party rules. The second, later entry for each of the non-exempt states reflects the position the national parties would prefer the earliest states to hold their delegate selection events.


2012 Presidential Primary Calendar


December 2011

Monday, December 5:

Iowa caucuses1


Tuesday, December 13:

New Hampshire1


Saturday, December 17:

Nevada caucuses1

South Carolina1


Florida (bills: House 1, 2/Senate) (moved to no date: 5/19/11)


February 2012

Monday, February 6:

Iowa caucuses (moved: 2/8/11) (based on national party rules)


Tuesday, February 7:

Alabama

Arkansas

California

Connecticut

Delaware

Georgia (bills: House) (moved to no date: 5/13/11)

Illinois

Minnesota Republican caucuses (bills: House/Senate) (moved: 3/1/11)

Missouri (bills: House 1, 2, 3/Senate)

Montana Republican caucuses

New Jersey (bills: Assembly 1, 2/Senate 1, 2)

New York

Oklahoma

Tennessee

Utah


Saturday, February 11:

Louisiana


Tuesday, February 14:

Maryland

New Hampshire (based on national party rules)

Virginia

Washington, DC


Saturday, February 18:

Nevada Republican caucuses (-28) (moved: 12/16/10) (based on national party rules)

Nevada Democratic caucuses2 (-28) (moved: 2/24/11) (based on national party rules)


Tuesday, February 21:

Hawaii Republican caucuses (+88) (moved: 5/16/09)

Wisconsin (bills: Assembly, Senate)


Tuesday, February 28:

Arizona3

Michigan4 (bills: House, Senate)

South Carolina (based on national party rules)


March 2012

Tuesday, March 6 (Super Tuesday):

Colorado caucuses (+14) (bills: House) (moved: 5/27/11)

Idaho Republican caucuses (+70) (moved: 7/16/11)

Massachusetts4 (bills: House)

Minnesota Democratic caucuses (-28) (moved: 3/17/11)

Ohio

Oklahoma (-28) (bills: House 1, 2, 3/Senate 1, 2) (moved: 5/3/11)

Rhode Island

Tennessee (-28) (bills: House 1, 2, 3/Senate 1, 2, 3) (moved: 5/9/11)

Texas (bills: House/Senate)

Vermont

Virginia (-21) (bills: House 1, 2/Senate) (moved: 3/25/11)


Saturday, March 10:

Kansas Republican caucuses (-28) (moved: 8/13/11)


Sunday, March 11:

Maine Democratic caucuses (-28) (moved: 3/27/11)


Tuesday, March 13:

Alabama (-35) (bills: House 1, 2) (moved: 6/9/11)

Hawaii Republican caucuses (+67 and -21) (moved: 5/14/11)

Mississippi

Utah Democratic caucuses (-35) (moved: 3/25/11)


Tuesday, March 20:

Colorado caucuses

Illinois (-42) (bills: Senate) (moved: 3/17/10)


Saturday, March 24:

Louisiana (-42) (bills: House) (moved: 6/29/11)


April 2012

Tuesday, April 3:

Kansas (bills: House 1, 2/Senate -- cancel primary) (canceled: 5/25/11)

Maryland (-49) (bills: House/Senate 1, 2) (moved: 5/10/11)

Washington, DC (-49) (bills: Council) (moved: 4/27/11)


Saturday, April 7:

Hawaii Democratic caucuses (-46) (moved: 3/18/11)

Wyoming Democratic caucuses (-28) (moved: 3/16/11)


Saturday, April 14:

Idaho Democratic caucuses (-67) (moved: 5/1/11)

Kansas Democratic caucuses (-67) (moved: 5/24/11)

Nebraska Democratic caucuses (-63) (moved: 3/5/11)


Sunday, April 15:

Alaska Democratic caucuses (-68) (moved: 4/4/11)

Washington Democratic caucuses (-64) (moved: 4/30/11)


Tuesday, April 24:

Connecticut (-77) (bills: House) (moved: 7/8/11)

Delaware (-77) (bills: Senate) (moved: 7/27/11)

New York (-77) (bills: Assembly/Senate) (moved: 7/13/11)

Pennsylvania

Rhode Island (-49) (bills: House/Senate) (moved: 7/1/11)


May 2012

Saturday, May 5:

Michigan Democratic caucuses (-67) (moved: 4/13/11)


Tuesday, May 8:

Indiana

North Carolina (bills: Senate)

Ohio (-63) (bills: House) (moved: 7/5/11)

West Virginia


Tuesday, May 15:

Idaho (+7) (bills: House) (moved: 2/23/11)

Nebraska

Oregon (bills: House)


Tuesday, May 22:

Arkansas (-105) (bills: House) (moved: 2/4/09)

Idaho

Kentucky (bills: House) (died: legislature adjourned)

Washington (bills: House 1, 2/Senate -- cancel primary) (canceled: 5/12/11)


June 2012

Tuesday, June 5:

California (-119) (bills: Assembly) (moved: 7/29/11)

Montana (GOP -119) (moved: 6/18/10)

New Mexico5 (bills: Senate) (died: legislature adjourned)

North Dakota Democratic caucuses (-119) (moved: 4/21/11)

South Dakota


Tuesday, June 26:

Utah (Republicans only) (-140) (moved: 6/5/11)


1 New Hampshire law calls for the Granite state to hold a primary on the second Tuesday of March or seven days prior to any other similar election, whichever is earlier. Florida is first now, so New Hampshire would be a week earlier at the latest. Traditionally, Iowa has gone on the Monday a week prior to New Hampshire. For the time being we'll wedge South Carolina in on the Saturday between New Hampshire and Florida, but these are just guesses at the moment. Any rogue states could cause a shift.

2 The Nevada Democratic caucuses date is based on both DNC rules and the state party's draft delegate selection plan as of February 24, 2011.

3 In Arizona the governor can use his or her proclamation powers to move the state's primary to a date on which the event would have an impact on the nomination. In 2004 and 2008 the primary was moved to the first Tuesday in February.
4 Massachusetts and Michigan are the only states that passed a frontloading bill prior to 2008 that was not permanent. The Bay state reverts to its first Tuesday in March date in 2012 while Michigan will fall back to the fourth Tuesday in February.
5 The law in New Mexico allows the parties to decide when to hold their nominating contests. The Democrats have gone in early February in the last two cycles, but the GOP has held steady in June. They have the option of moving however.



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Secretary Kemp Mentions Setting Georgia Primary Date After Iowa and New Hampshire Are Set

Short story, potentially big message.

Christina Wright of The Macon Telegraph on Georgia Secretary of State Brian Kemp's address to the Warner Robins Rotary Club Tuesday:
This will be the first year Kemp will set the presidential primary date, after the General Assembly passed the measure this spring for him to do so. Yet, with New Hampshire and Iowa attempting to remain the first primaries of the season, dates have fluctuated. Kemp said he is waiting for those dates before putting Georgia in the mix. The Iowa and New Hampshire caucuses historically have set the pulse of the presidential elections.
Kemp has been mostly tight-lipped on the issue of the Peach state presidential primary since the Georgia General Assembly ceded its power to set the date to the secretary in legislation signed into law earlier this year. The point of the bill was to allow the state -- through the secretary of state -- the flexibility it did not have previously in setting the date of its nominating contest. There have been clues from Kemp in the time since, but not much in the way of firm specifics.

Of course there have been a couple of hints about coupling the Georgia primary with the Florida primary. What has been missing to this point, however, is any indication of Kemp's the or the Georgia Republican Party's willingness to defy the RNC delegate selection rules. The true issue isn't so much whether Georgia will defy the rules. It is more about the extent to which the state will defy the rules.

First of all, good luck waiting out Iowa and New Hampshire. The two states at the head of the queue have a better chance of holding a primary before Kemp makes a decision than Georgia actually threatening those privileged positions. I only say that partially in jest. What Kemp is demonstrating here is not necessarily a threat to Iowa and New Hampshire. Instead, the secretary appears to be demonstrating at the very least a willingness to utilize every last day until the December 1 deadline by which that the newly enacted legislation requires him to set a date for the primary. If Secretary Kemp waits that long he will soon begin to limit himself. A December 1 decision only allows the secretary to set a date for January 31 at the earliest. A decision made sometime during November would theoretically put more of the month of January into play.

The way FHQ sees it, though, the secretary won't have to wait until December 1 to wait out the states other than Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina. For the most part, those states should fall in line during or around the first part of October (if not by the October 1 RNC deadline).


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Wednesday, August 24, 2011

Legislation to Create a Presidential Primary Date Selection Panel Introduced in Michigan Senate

Apparently committees with the authority to set 2012 presidential primary dates are all the rage in 2011. Then again, Michigan could be replaying the 2007 game of "Anything Florida can do, Michigan can do better". In 2007, the Michigan legislature one-upped the Florida legislature by setting a primary date for two weeks earlier than the primary in Florida. Now, the Michigan state Senate, following the Florida legislature's lead, has proposed legislation to create a panel to set the date of next year's presidential primary.1

The state Senate on its only August session day wasted little time in addressing the presidential primary date. Introduced today, SB 584 would create a committee comprised of three members -- one each chosen by the governor, speaker of the state House and leader of the state Senate.2 The committee would be charged with setting a date -- following the Michigan Republican Party's guidelines -- between February 28 and March 6. The primary is currently scheduled for the February 28 according to state law. The committee could opt to maintain that date or shift it to something slightly later. Regardless, the committee would be required to make a decision on or before October 1.

Technically, the legislature will be in session during September and into October and could set the date, but may not be able to act as quickly as the appointed committee would be able to, depending on the dynamics of the primary calendar at that time.

Hat tip to the AP for the news.

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1 The provision only creates the panel for the purposes of setting the 2012 primary date.

2 All three -- Governor Rick Snyder, Speaker Jase Bolger and Leader Randy Richardville -- are Republicans.


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Kansas GOP Chooses March 10 for Presidential Caucuses

[Click to Enlarge]

Lost amid the hustle and bustle of the Ames Straw Poll and even the Michigan Republican Party State Committee meeting on August 13, was the meeting of the Kansas Republican Party State Committee. At that meeting the party set the date -- as well as discussing other issues -- for Sunflower state Republicans' presidential nominating caucuses for 2012. Repeating their caucus schedule of 2008, Kansas Republicans will gather on the Saturday after Super Tuesday -- in this case on March 101-- to begin the process of selecting delegates to attend to the Republican National Convention in Tampa.

The date corresponds with no other contests at the present time. Maine Democrats meet the following day, but will not attract attention away from Kansas Republicans. Caucus dates remain unsettled for the Republican Parties in Alaska, Maine, North Dakota, Washington and Wyoming (...for the time being and/or to the best of FHQ's knowledge).

A tip of the cap to both Bob Beatty and Martin Hawver for the information.

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The party convention also approved today its rules for conducting the Republican presidential preference caucus next year, which the party will use as part of its process of selecting delegates to the Republican National Convention in Tampa FL next August. The Republican presidential preference caucus will be March 10 and—of course—photo I.D. will be required of those voting.
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Monday, August 22, 2011

Call for September 6 Missouri Special Session Includes Presidential Primary

Missouri Governor Jay Nixon (D) today issued a call for a special session of the state legislature to convene on September 6.1 Republican leadership in the legislature received their preferred date for the start of the session, and the resulting session will overlap with the legislature's September 14 veto session. The proclamation calls for the date of the presidential primary to be addressed moving the nomination contest to the first Tuesday after the first Monday in March (March 6, Super Tuesday).

In other words, we will likely know within that first week -- give or take a few days -- whether General Assembly Republicans will pursue the call for a "clean" bill regarding the presidential primary or move to override the governor's veto. The latter would require the help of four Democratic representatives to be successful.

Theoretically, Missouri should fall in line fairly soon after Arizona Governor Jan Brewer (R) makes the decision on when the presidential primary in the Grand Canyon state will be. If January 31 is the date Governor Brewer is intent on that decision will have to be made -- via proclamation -- on or before September 2.

Hat tip to the Associated Press for the story.

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WHEREAS, prudently designed economic development programs accelerate Missouri's economic growth through the creation of a vibrant business climate that attracts new employers to Missouri and encourages existing businesses to expand; and

WHEREAS, the Missouri Science and Innovation Reinvestment Act, Compete Missouri Initiative, data storage centers, recruitment of significant amateur sporting events and the creation of an international export hub to facilitate the expansion of Missouri exports are critical programs that capture Missouri's bold vision and competitive spirit and will spur economic expansion in all corners of this state; and

WHEREAS, economic development programs must include transparency, accountability and return on investment and be implemented in a fiscally prudent manner; and

WHEREAS, economic incentives and tax credit programs must be regularly reviewed to ensure those programs are effective in addressing their purpose and provide appropriate return on investment; and

WHEREAS, implementation of tax credit reform will inject accountability, transparency and result in taxpayer funds being spent in a fiscally effective manner; and

WHEREAS, legislation to modernize Department of Revenue collection measures and a period of tax amnesty will benefit citizens of the State of Missouri and have a positive impact on general revenue; and

WHEREAS, Conference Committee Substitute for House Committee Substitute for Senate Bill No. 282, passed during the First Regular Session of the Ninety-Sixth General Assembly, would have moved Missouri's Presidential Primary to March, 2012; and

WHEREAS, Conference Committee Substitute for House Committee Substitute for Senate Bill No. 282 was vetoed due to the inclusion of objectionable provisions unrelated to the moving of the date for the Presidential Primary; and

WHEREAS, a March, 2012 Presidential Primary will allow Missouri to remain a crucial state during the presidential nomination process; and

WHEREAS, the First Regular Session of the Ninety-Sixth General Assembly considered but failed to pass legislation that would have transferred supervision and control over the St. Louis Metropolitan Police Department to the City of St. Louis; and

WHEREAS, Article IV, Section 9 of the Missouri Constitution authorizes the Governor on extraordinary occasions to convene the General Assembly by proclamation, wherein he shall state specifically each matter on which action is deemed necessary; and

WHEREAS, the need for economic development legislation, tax credit reform, tax amnesty legislation, enhancement of Department of Revenue collection measures, moving the date of the 2012 Presidential Primary and transitioning the St. Louis Metropolitan Police Department to local control are extraordinary occasions as envisioned by Article IV, Section 9 of the Missouri Constitution.

NOW THEREFORE, on the extraordinary occasions that exist in the state of Missouri:

I, JEREMIAH W. (JAY) NIXON, GOVERNOR OF THE STATE OF MISSOURI, pursuant to the authority vested in me as Governor by the Constitution of the State of Missouri, do, by this Proclamation, convene the Ninety-Sixth General Assembly of the State of Missouri in the First Extra Session of the First Regular Session; and

I HEREBY call upon the Senators and Representatives of said General Assembly to meet in the State Capitol in the City of Jefferson at the hour of 12:00 p.m., Central Daylight Time, on September 6, 2011; and

I HEREBY state that the action of said General Assembly is deemed necessary concerning each matter specifically designated and limited hereinafter as follows:

  • To enact legislation implementing comprehensive reforms to existing tax credit programs that produces substantial savings to the state treasury through the elimination of programs, imposition or lowering of caps, establishment of program sunsets and other reforms that create efficiencies and safeguard the taxpayers' money. This matter is restricted and nothing in this Proclamation should be construed to authorize the enactment of legislation amending the five year limitation on interest costs eligible for issuance of tax credits under section 99.1205.3, RSMo.
  • To enact legislation that incentivizes the development of an international air cargo hub at Lambert-St. Louis International Airport through creation of an air export tax credit for freight forwarders not to exceed a total of sixty million dollars over eight years and a real estate development tax credit not to exceed a total of three hundred million dollars over sixteen years for eligible facilities located in "gateway zones," the qualification for which will be confirmed and verified by the Department of Economic Development, and additional accountability, oversight and participation protections.
  • To enact the Missouri Science and Innovation Reinvestment Act authorizing the Missouri Technology Corporation to provide grants, loans and investments in science and innovation businesses through use of funding generated by capturing a portion of any new growth in income tax revenue generated by employees working at such new and existing science and innovation businesses in Missouri.
  • To enact the Compete Missouri Initiative which streamlines and updates Missouri's training programs to reflect business and workforce needs; consolidates Missouri's business development incentives into a single program with consistent definitions and processes; provides performance-based benefits with broader accessibility for small businesses and businesses in rural areas; provides additional benefits for targeted industries identified by business leaders in Missouri's Strategic Initiative for Economic Growth; provides business retention incentives for companies retaining more than 125 jobs annually; and authorizes establishment of a closing fund for competitive recruitment and retention projects.
  • To enact legislation creating incentives for the construction and development of high-tech data centers that allows a high-tech data center making a minimum capital investment of thirty-seven million dollars and creating at least thirty new jobs to be exempt from certain state and local sales taxes on utilities, machinery and equipment used in the operation of the data center and on personal property and materials used in the construction of the data center, with the overall amount of the exemption limited to the positive fiscal impact to taxpayers resulting from the project.
  • To enact legislation authorizing tax credits available for sports commissions, convention and visitors bureaus, certain nonprofit organizations, counties, and municipalities to offset expenses incurred in attracting amateur sporting events to the state in an amount not to exceed three million dollars annually; and to authorize a revenue-neutral contribution tax credit for donations to local sports organizations for the purposes of attracting amateur sporting events to the state in an amount not to exceed ten million dollars annually.
  • To enact legislation creating administrative efficiencies and improving the Department of Revenue's ability to collect moneys owed to the State by authorizing the Department of Revenue to: 1) collect, upon referral, debts owed to other state agencies; 2) reduce its expenses associated with providing required notices; 3) recover its collection and administrative costs by retaining one percent of the amount of any local sales or use tax collected by the Department; 4) enter into a reciprocal collection and offset of indebtedness agreement with the federal government; 5) issue orders directly to debtors' employers or other sources of income to facilitate the execution of administrative judgments; and 6) issue statements indicating that no taxes or fees, for which the Department is responsible for collecting, are due, as a prerequisite for payment of certain claims or judgments from the state legal expense fund.
  • To enact legislation authorizing the Department of Revenue to grant amnesty to taxpayers from the assessment or payment of penalties, additions to tax, and interest with respect to unpaid income tax and sales tax due and owing that the taxpayer voluntarily reports and pays in full between August 1, 2012 and September 30, 2012.
  • To enact legislation authorizing an orderly transition in the governance of the St. Louis Metropolitan Police Department from a board of police commissioners to the City of St. Louis through a process that provides for equitable employment treatment for commissioned and civilian personnel.
  • To enact legislation moving Missouri's Presidential Primary to the first Tuesday after the first Monday in March of each presidential election year.
  • To allow the Senate to consider appointments to boards, commissions, departments, and divisions that require advice and consent of the Senate.

Such additional and other matters as may be recommended by the Governor by special message to the General Assembly after it shall have been convened.

IN WITNESS WHEREOF, I have hereunto set my hand and caused to be affixed the Great Seal of the State of Missouri, in the City of Jefferson, on this 22nd day of August, 2011.

Jeremiah W. (Jay) Nixon
Governor

ATTEST:

Robin Carnahan
Secretary of State


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Sunday, August 21, 2011

Will lightning strike NC again in presidential race?

Paul Johnson wonders about the likelihood of North Carolina playing a role in the Republican nomination race and the general election in 2012 in the High Point Enterprise.

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This weekend is apparently the time for local media in May 8 presidential primary states to consider the what it will take for the Republican nomination race to stretch to that point in the calendar (see Indiana). [Add to that the fact that Ohio's May 8 date isn't necessarily set in stone. West Virginia, care to weigh in?] For the record, FHQ is in agreement with Martin Kifer and John Dinan -- two political scientists we know and whose opinions we value. That is, we all take the cautious approach. Look, it is just too early and we don't have enough information on the field of candidates, much less the calendar, to be able to definitively say one way or the other that North Carolina or Indiana will matter in the 2012 Republican nomination. One can either put on the 2008 glasses and see that cycle as a seachange in the fundamentals of presidential nomination politics or look back on the history of post-reform nomination races -- particularly the evolution of the process over that period -- and come to completely different conclusions.

The answer probably lies somewhere in the middle. FHQ is of the opinion that the Republican race is more likely to extend longer than usual -- perhaps not to May 8 -- because of the way in which primaries and caucuses are spread out over the calendar in 2012 compared to the past. If one were to take the current field of Republican candidates and plop them down in an environment that included the 2008 calendar, I suspect that the outcome would be largely similar: a nominee would likely emerge by the first week in March, give or take a week or two. But 2012 is different. Fewer states are clustered up against the opening of the window in which the national parties allow contests to occur. That is a function of several (Democratic) states moving further back to comply with the new national party rules and a handful of other states challenging the position the early four contests hold.

The race may, then, lengthen, but not necessarily to May. We just can't say one way or the other at this point. That answer will take not only a known field, but also a few actual contests being held, thus forcing the field to winnow further.

As for the general election, North Carolina seems more likely to be on the campaigns' big boards next fall than Indiana.1 But John is absolutely right: We'll have to wait -- probably until after this time next year (post-convention) -- to see which states "make the cut".

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1 North Carolina has repeatedly behaved as a swing state in public opinion polling that has been conducted on the general election race. It has both mirrored the national atmosphere and moved in tandem with other swing states.


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Will Indiana play role in 2012 GOP presidential primary?

Eric Bradner at the Evansville Courier-Press has the answer.

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May 8 is a long time in political/electoral time from the Iowa caucuses and even further from August 2011. Compared to past years -- pre-2008 -- Indiana at least has a light at the end of this tunnel. With a more dispersed calendar of primaries and caucuses and the dynamics of a two or three candidate race taking shape (again, in August 2011), the Hoosier state can think big while at the same time realizing that a repeat of 2008 leans toward being a pie in the sky notion. That is different from past years when Indiana Democrats and Republicans could write off the possibility of casting consequential votes in a nomination race outright.

Still, a lot can change between now and then.


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Confusion reigns over Texas' 2012 election calendar

Aman Batheja of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram has the story.

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This situation was a mess for Texas from the time the MOVE act passed Congress in 2009. The thing that came out in the committee hearings for the relevant bills that made their way through the Texas state legislature was that there were so many competing interests that someone was going to get hurt in the process. Local elections officials and voters may be those people. The presidential primary and relevance in that process seem to have been on the other side of the spectrum. So far as FHQ can tell -- and we followed the process closely -- eliminating the runoff system was never a serious option, though it would have cut in half the problems for the state legislature, elections officials and voters.


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Saturday, August 20, 2011

Alabama Republican Party Posts 2012 Presidential Primary Delegate Allocation Guidelines

The Alabama Republican Party on Friday posted a resolution outlining the rules regarding the allocation of its delegates to the 2012 Republican National Convention in Tampa. Given that the Alabama presidential primary is now scheduled for the second Tuesday in March -- March 13 -- that puts the contest outside of the window in which the newly established RNC rules allow straight winner-take-all delegate allocation. That said, as FHQ pointed out earlier this week, state Republican parties have rarely looked on the delegate allocation as a binary choice between proportional or winner-take-all rules. Some choose proportional rules while other states choose winner-take-all. Still others choose some hybrid version that include certain vote thresholds by which candidates can be allocated all of a state's or congressional district's delegates.1 Since the 2004 cycle, Alabama has fit into this middle, hybrid category. And in 2012, the state not only fits that category again, but also reprises its 2008 method of delegate allocation.

Alabama is one of those states that has had some winner-take-all provisions in the past, but those are provisions that are untouched by the 2012 RNC delegate selection rules. That is why the 2012 allocation mimics the 2008 allocation formula. Let's have a look:
Alabama Republicans: 50 delegates [26 at-large (10 base, 16 bonus), 21 district (3 per each of the 7 congressional districts), 3 automatic]2
At-large allocation: If a candidate receives a majority of the statewide vote, that candidate is allocated all of the 26 at-large delegates. Should no candidate clear the 50% barrier, those 26 delegates would be allocated proportionally provided said candidate has received at least 20% of the statewide vote.
Congressional district allocation: If a candidate receives a majority of the district vote, that candidate is allocated the full three delegates from the district. Should no candidate clear the 50% barrier, the top vote-getter in the district is allocated two delegates and the second highest vote-getter receives one. That is conditional upon both top candidates receiving at least 20% of the district vote. Should only one of the top two candidates cross the 20% vote threshold, the top candidate shall receive the full three district delegates.
Automatic delegate allocation: The Alabama Republican Party chair, the Alabama national committeeman and the Alabama national committeewoman are free to pledge themselves to or endorse whomever they choose. They may also choose to go to the convention uncommitted.
Notes: Seemingly missing from the above provisions is an equivalent to the 20% rule on congressional district delegate allocation for at-large delegates. Let me explain. Both do have that barrier if no candidate receives a majority of the vote. However, only the congressional district allocation accounts for the contingency where only one candidate clears the 20% barrier. That remains absent in the at-large allocation. That said, it is unlikely, given Alabama's position on the calendar, that the field will have not winnowed itself down to three viable candidates by that point. The fewer viable candidates there are, the less probable it is that only one candidate clears the 20% vote threshold.
This is all laid out in Paragraphs 5 and 6 of the Alabama Republican Party resolution on the rules of the presidential preference primary:

2012.al.gop.pres.primary.rules

Postscript: FHQ concedes that this is not ground-breaking news. However, it does underline the point made earlier in the week that the 2012 Republican delegate selection rules are not going to fundamentally rewrite the method -- winner-take-all or proportional -- by which delegates are actually allocated. Where the RNC rules will have the most impact is on scheduling. The direct effect on allocation is there, but that in turn, indirectly affects the accumulation of delegates by the candidates.

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1 The RNC rules apportion three delegates for each congressional district. That is the method by which the party accounts for population differences from state to state.

2 For more see the 2008 Rules of the Republican Party (revised August, 6, 2010) Rule 12(a).
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Friday, August 19, 2011

Are Ohio Democrats Threatening the Buckeye State's New May Presidential Primary?

Alan Johnson at The Columbus Dispatch in updating Ohio Democrats' efforts to repeal parts of the recently-passed elections bill seems to also hint at the possibility of it tearing down the new May presidential primary as well. The crux of the matter:
[Ohio Attorney General Mike] DeWine rejected the initial language submitted by the group, finding that it contained inaccurate and misleading statements and cited wrong sections of law. As a result, Fair Elections Ohio had to restart the process. This time, the coalition opted to repeal the entire law instead of parts of it, as the opponents initially proposed.
The Fair Elections Ohio referendum proposal as well as DeWine's and Secretary of State John Husted's acceptance of the revised language appear to be (inadvertently???) potentially affecting the scheduling of the Buckeye state presidential primary. Granted, DeWine and Husted required a fairly high bar in terms of the petition signatures needed to get the item on the ballot for the November 2012 general election. The bar is high at 231,147 signatures and the window of time in which to gather them is relatively short at about six weeks (before September 29).

If Fair Elections Ohio gathers the required number of valid petition signatures in time, the new elections law would be suspended until Ohio voters can arbitrate the matter in November 2012. That suspension of the law would move the presidential primary back to the first Tuesday in March, and also put a great deal of pressure on local Ohio elections officials to be prepared in time for the primary after redistricting takes place later this summer and fall.

That's makes one more item to add to FHQ's primer on when the remaining states may decide on the timing of their primaries and caucuses.

--
Thanks to Richard Winger at Ballot Access News for passing along the link to the Columbus Dispatch article.


Posted by Josh Putnam at 2:00 PM 0 comments
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Delayed Call for Missouri Special Session Keeps Presidential Primary Date in Limbo

Over the weekend, FHQ cobbled together several bits of news concerning the situation surrounding the scheduling of the presidential primary in Missouri. Basically, there are two options for altering the date: a veto override of the previously passed presidential primary bill or a "clean" presidential primary bill to be introduced a special legislative session. We made the point then that the special session offered the path of least resistance.

That is still the case. However, Jessica Machetta of Missournet reported yesterday that Governor Jay Nixon (D) is taking his time in making the call for the special session:

Nixon spokesman Sam Murphy says the Governor’s office is finalizing the language of the call and working directly with members in both the House and the Senate with policy expertise to ensure that we have a crisp and focused special session to pass legislation to create jobs, finance disaster recovery and ensure that taxpayer dollars are invested responsibly.

Governor Nixon said a few weeks ago that he would call the legislature back into special session to take up a jobs bill, a change in the date for Missouri’s presidential primary and other possible key issues.

The Republican majorities in the General Assembly hope that session will be in early September:
Republican legislative leaders said they had hoped for a Sept. 6 start date, stated in their letter to Nixon that “the legislature has the hard task to pass (in a limited time) the most sweeping jobs and fiscal accountability legislation ever attempted.

Missouri Republicans leaders in the legislature also wonder about the short "official" notice of the session's details:
Senate Leader Rob Mayer of Dexter and House Speaker Stephen Tilley of Perryville have written Nixon a letter urging him to set a date, saying the citizen members of the Missouri legislature need advance time to plan with their families and employers.
Now, FHQ's intent here is not to cast doubt on the likelihood of either a special session or the passage of a "clean" presidential primary bill. Those are still, in our opinion, likely outcomes. That said, the back and forth between the legislative and executive branches continues to keep the scheduling of the presidential primary in an uncertain area for the time being.

NOTE: The Missouri General Assembly has a veto session scheduled for September 14.


Posted by Josh Putnam at 12:30 PM 0 comments
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