Governor Deal Signs Presidential Primary Date Setting Power Over to Georgia Secretary of State

On Friday, May 13, Governor Nathan Deal (R) signed HB 454 into law. The bill transfers the authority for setting the date of the Georgia presidential primary from the General Assembly to the secretary of state. The Peach state's current secretary of state, Brian Kemp, will have until December 1 (at the latest) to choose the date on which Georgia will hold its presidential primary. Though that December deadline and the 60 days required to be within the point of selecting a date and holding the contest would allow for a primary as early as the last Tuesday in January, early signals out of the Republican Party of Georgia indicate a likely April primary. That, however, may depend on the chair Georgia Republicans select this weekend at their annual state convention.

Part of the reason for the higher likelihood of an April primary hinges on Georgia Republicans traditionally holding winner-take-all primaries; something the new Republican delegate selection rules do not allow before April. Presumably, the state party would have a chance to alter the winner-take-all rules to avoid that problem (...if an earlier primary without penalties is desired).¹ It is not clear whether Kemp, a Republican, would follow the suggestions of the state party, but it is likely given the fact that the primary is a means of the party allocating its delegates to the national convention.

One final note should probably be made as the path of this legislation has reached its completion. By ceding the power to the secretary of state, the Georgia General Assembly has granted the state more flexibility -- on par with New Hampshire and similar though not exactly like what is happening in Florida -- to select a presidential primary date that will put the state in a position on the calendar to influence the nomination. The short legislative session that Georgia typically holds so early in the year has continually hampered the states ability to be as free as some other states in selecting a time for a primary.

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This move on Georgia's part moves the Peach state out of February and now has Georgia designated as "No Date" for our purposes here at FHQ until Secretary Kemp selects a date for the presidential primary.

Follow this link for a look back at the legislative process behind this bill and other presidential primary news in Georgia.

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¹ Texas has had the same problem but has no recourse between now and next year's primary due to the fact that the Republican Party of Texas has already held its 2011 state convention and has no means of changing its winner-take-all requirement.

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Missouri House Passes Conference Committee Report, Moving Presidential Primary to March

On the final day of the state legislative session, the Missouri House took up and passed the conference committee substitute to SB 282. After a bit of a rollercoaster ride, the final version of the bill includes a provision to move the presidential primary in the Show Me state back to the first Tuesday after the first Monday in March. The original version of the bill contained the same provision, but was later amended on the floor of the Senate to anchor the primary to New Hampshire (placing the Missouri contest a week after the first in the nation primary).

The final version has now been approved by both chambers of the Missouri General Assembly and moves on the Governor Jay Nixon for his consideration. If signed, Missouri would join Oklahoma, Tennessee and Virginia as states to shift from February primary dates to primaries on March 6. That result is likely because the move would bring Missouri into compliance with national party delegate selection rules.

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Kansas House Passes Conference Committee Report to Cancel 2012 Presidential Primary

The Kansas House on Thursday, May 12 followed the state Senate's lead from earlier in the day and passed the conference committee report for HB 2080. Both chambers have now agreed to the same version of a broader elections bill that, among other things, cancels the Sunflower state's presidential primary for 2012.

The legislation now heads to Governor Sam Brownback's desk for his consideration. As FHQ mentioned yesterday, Kansas' history of canceling presidential primaries makes this bill becoming law likely. Kansas would become the second state to cancel its presidential primary; joining Washington. There are no other states at this time considering that option.

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Gregoire's Signature Cancels 2012 Washington Presidential Primary

Governor Christine Gregoire in a signing session this afternoon signed SB 5119 into law, canceling the 2012 Washington presidential primary. [It was the first to be signed of twenty-nine bills on the agenda.] Washington voters have had the presidential primary option since 1992, but neither state party has ever completely adopted it as the preferred method of allocating national convention delegates. In 2008, for example, Democrats, traditionally averse to primaries, allocated all of their delegates based on the results of the party's caucuses while the primary election ten days later was only advisory. Washington Republicans, meanwhile, allocated 51% of their delegates based on the primary results and the remaining 49% from the caucuses. The fact, then, that the state government was open to the idea of temporarily suspending the presidential primary for the 2012 cycle -- as a means of saving $10 million in elections costs -- is understandable, though, not universally accepted.

Washington, though, becomes the first state of the 2012 cycle to cancel its presidential primary. Democrats in the state have already chosen a Sunday, April 15 date for its caucuses and the focus now turns to the Republican Party in the Evergreen state to select a date for its delegate selection event.

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Kansas Senate Passes Conference Committee Report to Cancel 2012 Presidential Primary

The Kansas Senate on Thursday passed the conference committee-negotiated report to HB 2080. By a vote of 35-1, senators supported the broad elections bill that includes a provision -- added to the House original by the Senate -- to postpone the 2012 presidential primary election and replace references in the Kansas statutes to it with references to 2016 instead. The move would save the state around $2 million, but would also continue a trend of holding party-run caucuses over state-funded primaries. The likely move is not surprising since Kansas has not held a presidential primary since 1992.

A separate Senate bill (SB 128) with the sole intent of canceling the presidential primary has already passed the Senate and has been stuck in the House since February. HB 2080, which fulfills that same end among other matters, now goes to the House for consideration. What this bill has that SB 128 did not necessarily have is support from the House members on the conference committee. Regardless, it should pass the House.

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A Follow Up on Florida Dems and 2012 Presidential Primary/Caucus Delegate Allocation

FHQ got a nice clarification email from Florida Democratic Party spokesperson, Eric Jotkoff, this morning concerning the discrepancy between how he was quoted in the Tampa Tribune and what the party's draft delegate selection plan proposes in terms of the timing of the 2012 primary or caucus. My first thought yesterday upon reading the quote about the possibility of a June caucus (in the event the Presidential Preference Primary Date Selection Committee (PPPDSC) chooses a date that is not compliant with both national parties' sets of delegate selection rules) was that that likely referred to the state party convention. That intuition was confirmed by Mr. Jotkoff's email of clarification. As he said:

“Democrats from across Florida would be invited to attend county caucuses held in April and May, which will be used to allocate the delegates appropriately and to elect Delegates to a State Convention in June where the National Convention Delegates will be selected."

Just to clarify, then, Florida Democrats will hold county caucuses between April 14 and May 5, 2012 to begin allocating delegates to the national convention in Charlotte, a process that will be finalized at the state convention in June. And again, this assumes that the PPPDSC selects a date for the presidential primary that is in violation of the national party rules (ie: before March 6, 2012).

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As a side note, I hate it when state parties schedule caucuses like this (though it is certainly their right to determine the manner in which the party allocates delegates). I say that from a research standpoint. When delegate selection events occur on more than one day (ie: caucuses over the period of a weekend or several weeks), it is difficult to measure when that process is taking place. FHQ's rule of thumb has always been to use the earliest date in our data as opposed to, say, the median date. If the point of movement forward/earlier on the calendar is done under the premise that it gains more candidate/press attention, then the earliest point at which any delegate allocation occurs is the marginally better way of capturing that. That said, there are a few caveats to be made. First of all, caucuses receive less attention anyway (see Gurian 1986, 1990, 1993), and stretching that process out dilutes that impact further. Secondly, we are, after all, talking about an uncontested, in-party nomination process here. It isn't terribly consequential when Florida holds its caucuses (no offense intended). Obama will be the Democratic nominee regardless. My research has always focused on contests nominations anyway. Finally, what kind of a bonus will this net Florida Democrats? I suspect the DNC will treat the Florida caucuses as if they all occurred on April 14 and give Sunshine state Democrats a 10% bonus on their delegate total as opposed to the 15% bump that comes with a May or later date.

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Florida Democrats Float Conditional Presidential Primary/Caucus Schedule

NOTE: Please see the follow up post for a clarification on the timing of the county caucuses and state convention for Florida Democrats in 2012.

The Florida Democratic Party today released its draft 2012 delegate selection plan. Given the very real possibility that Governor Rick Scott (R) will sign HB 1355 into law and that that would create the Presidential Preference Primary Date Selection Committee to schedule a presidential primary between the first Tuesday of January and the first Tuesday in March, Florida Democrats are facing a dilemma. They could allocate delegates during the likely non-compliant earlier primary and take the penalties from the DNC for violating the party's rules; repeating the 2008 scenario.¹ The alternative would be to hold a primary or caucus at the state party's expense on a non-compliant date or dates.

Florida Democrats appear to be leaning toward the latter:

"Should the Republicans break the rules, we will not be participating in the primary," said state Democratic Party spokesman Eric Jotkoff. "Democrats from across Florida would be invited to attend county caucuses held in June which will be used to allocate the delegates appropriately."

That statement, however, differed from the press release announcing the opening of the public comment period for the delegate selection plan.

Should the Presidential Preference Primary be held on or after March 6^th, in compliance with the Republican National Committee and Democratic National Committee rules, the results of this election will be used to apportion Delegates similar to the process used by Florida Democrats in past Presidential Primaries.

Between April 14^th and May 5^th of 2012, each County Democratic Party will host a caucus to elect Delegates to a State Convention.

That discrepancy is likely not a big deal. First of all, the Democratic nomination is uncontested which makes the delegate allocation process less consequential -- at least in terms of determining the nominee. Second, the state party will not officially make a decision until after both the public comment period has concluded and then after the yet-to-be-approved committee schedules the presidential primary. If that date is on March 6, the Democrats will allocate delegates then. If the primary is earlier, Democrats will hold county caucuses between April 14 and June.

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¹ Given that Democrats in the Florida legislature proposed a remedy to the primary situation -- legislation to move the primary to March was introduced in both chambers -- the party could petition the Democratic Rules and Bylaws Committee for a waiver to avoid sanctions. However, it is unclear whether the committee would make an exception in this case. That rule has never been tested in the rogue state era. Recall Democrats in the Florida legislature supported the January primary move in 2007 and later paid the price for it.

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Bill to Cancel 2012 Washington Primary to be Signed May 12

SB 5119, the bill to cancel the 2012 presidential primary in Washington state, is on the list of bills to be signed by Governor Christine Gregoire (D) on Thursday, May 12. The legislation was originally introduced at the request of the governor and Secretary of State Sam Reed (R) as a means of saving the state $10 million in elections expenses and would only suspend the primary for the 2012 cycle. Those provisions are set to expire on January 1, 2013.

Several states have discussed consolidated presidential and state/local primaries as a means of saving money on future budgets, but Washington would become the first state during the 2012 cycle to cancel its primary to reach those savings. Kansas is also attempting to cancel its primary.

For a look back at the process of how the bill got here (and other 2012 state caucus news) click on the "Washington" tag in the box below the post.

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Missouri Senate Adopts Conference Committee Substitute, Approves March Presidential Primary

On Tuesday night the Missouri Senate adopted the conference committee report for SB 282 and then passed the conference committee substitute. The AP is reporting that this new version of the legislation includes a provision for a March presidential primary, something the Senate had rejected previously. That action by the upper chamber means that both houses have now passed a version of the bill that would move the presidential primary back a month. However, the conference committee substitute has not been posted online for this to be confirmed. Also, assuming that the conference committee substitute differs from the House-passed House committee substitute, the bill would need to go back to the lower chamber for final consideration and a vote there. Though there was a conflict between the two chambers regarding the timing of the presidential primary -- at least in terms of the earlier versions that passed -- the main sticking point in the conference committee negotiations was, according to the AP account above, the inclusion of requirement for presidential nominees to submit "proof of status as a natural born citizen of the United States". The House committee substitute added that to the Senate-passed version. That portion was removed in conference.

The bill now presumably heads back to the House, though, the current status still reads "in conference" for today. That said, assuming the House signs off on the newly amended version of the legislation, the proposed move of the presidential primary to March would head off to Governor Jay Nixon's (D) desk for his signature.

NOTE: FHQ will post a link to the Conference Committee Substitute to SB 282 when and if it is posted online.

Thanks to Richard Winger at Ballot Access News for passing along the news of the bill's progress.

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Second March Primary Bill Heads to Conference in Missouri

The Missouri House this afternoon rejected the state Senate's call for the House to recede its amendments to SB 270 and forced a conference committee to now consider the bill. As was the case with SB 282, SB 270 would shift the Show Me state presidential primary from February to March. The House has passed three bills with provisions to accomplish that task and the Senate has failed to consider or forced conference committee consideration of all three.

Again, the Missouri General Assembly will adjourn on Friday, so time is running out for a national party rules compliant move to be made on the presidential primary question.

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A Mid-Day Update on the Missouri Primary Situation

As FHQ discussed earlier this morning, the Missouri House last night amended and passed a substitute bill (SB 270) that would move the Show Me state's presidential primary to the first Tuesday after the first Monday in March. As was the case late last week (with SB 282), however, the Senate refused to cooperate once the bill was returned in an altered form and requested that the House either recede the amendments or grant a conference committee.

Some in the House bemoaned the privileged position Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada receive and wanted to stand up to them:

As the Missouri House prepared to take its final vote Monday night, state Rep. Chris Kelly called for lawmakers to take a stand against "these two national monsters (who) have taken control of local politics."

Kelly, D-Columbia, complained that the national parties are wielding too much power, controlling money and mandating certain decisions that he said should be left up to local political activists.

"Why don't we stand up to these beasts!" Kelly shouted.

Representative Kelly also expressed some interest in the primary staying where it is: on the first Tuesday after the first Monday in February. If this back and forth continues between the House and Senate in Missouri, the clock may run out (session adjourns on Friday, May 13), and Kelly may get his wish.

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The 2012 Presidential Primary Calendar (5/10/11)

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Maryland Presidential Primary to April 3

On Tuesday May 10, Governor Martin O'Malley (D) signed HB 671, moving the presidential primary in Maryland from the second Tuesday in February to the first Tuesday in April. This completes the dismantling of the Potomac Primary from the 2008 cycle. Virginia previously moved from the same February date to the first Tuesday in March and the District of Columbia last month shifted the date of its primary to the first Tuesday in April. Maryland, then, will join its neighbor to the south in April.

That date is currently shared by Kansas (legislation there seeks to cancel the Sunflower state's primary) and may, depending on how the process unfold in Texas, be joined later by the Lone Star state.

Due to this date change, Maryland Republicans will be able to maintain its winner-take-all delegate allocation and Maryland Democrats will be able to take advantage of increased delegates for holding a later contest.

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NOTE: With Maryland, Virginia and Washington (DC) now officially scheduled for new dates, February 14 is clear for New Hampshire (assuming all the other February states comply with the national party rules, of course).

See the updated 2012 presidential primary calendar here.

Thanks to Matt Verghese for passing this news along.

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Missouri House Throws Another March Primary Committee Substitute at Senate

In the ongoing saga that has become the state legislative effort to change the date of the Missouri presidential primary, the Missouri House has developed a seemingly simple strategy: Keep sending March primary bills to the resistant state Senate. First the state House sent its own version of the bill (HB 503) -- changing the presidential primary date from the first Tuesday after the first Monday in February to the first Tuesday after the first Tuesday in March -- to the Senate. The House then returned an amended version of the Senate-passed bill -- one that placed the presidential primary one week after the primary in New Hampshire -- with the same March date change. The Senate failed to concur and the bill -- SB 282 -- went to conference.

Now the House has taken yet another Senate-passed elections bill -- SB 270 -- and tagged it with yet another March presidential primary provision, passed it (albeit not without some resistance) and sent the House committee substitute back to the Senate.¹ It appears as if the Republican-controlled Missouri House is attempting to badger the Senate into making the February to March switch against the will of the Republican majority there. All this, of course, is set against the backdrop of the general assembly adjourning for the year on Friday, May 13. Time is running out and the state Senate is seemingly ready to stare down the RNC and its timing rules.

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¹ Though the St. Louis Beacon report cited says the bill will now go to Governor Nixon (D) for consideration, the House changed the Senate version of the bill and the legislation will have to go back to the chamber of origin for concurrence prior to moving on to the governor.

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The 2012 Presidential Primary Calendar (5/10/11)

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The 2012 Presidential Primary Calendar (5/10/11)

Tennessee is on the move and so is the presidential primary calendar.

[Click to Enlarge]

Reading the Map:

As was the case with the maps from past cycles, the earlier a contest is scheduled in 2012, the darker the color in which the state is shaded. Florida, for instance, is a much deeper shade of blue in January than South Dakota is in June. There are, however, some differences between the earlier maps and the one that appears above.

1. Several caucus states have yet to select a date for the first step of their delegate selection processes in 2012. Until a decision is made by state parties in those states, they will appear in gray on the map.
2. The states where legislation to move the presidential primary is active are two-toned. One color indicates the timing of the primary according to the current law whereas the second color is meant to highlight the most likely month to which the primary could be moved. [With the exception of Texas, the proposed movement is backward.] This is clear in most states, but in others -- Maryland and Tennessee -- where multiple timing options are being considered, the most likely date is used. Here that is defined as a bill -- or date change -- with the most institutional support. In both cases, the majority party leadership is sponsoring one change over another (February to March in Tennessee and February to April in Maryland). That option is given more weight on the map.
3. Kentucky is unique because the legislation there calls for shifting the primary from May to August. As August is not included in the color coding, white designates that potential move with the May shade of blue. Georgia, too, is unique. The state legislature is considering a bill to shift primary date-setting power from the legislature to the secretary of state. The effect is that the Peach state has a dark blue stripe for its current February primary date and a gray stripe to reflect the fact that a change from that based on the bill in question would put the future 2012 primary date in limbo until December 1 at the latest.
4. Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina are shaded on the map according to the latest possible date these states would have if Florida opts not to move their primary into compliance with the national party rules. Iowa Republicans and Nevada Republicans and Democrats have decided to accept the party-designated dates, but FHQ operates under the assumption that both will move to a point ahead of the earliest exempt state should one or more move or maintain a February or earlier date.
5. States that are bisected vertically are states where the state parties have different dates for their caucuses and/or primaries. The left hand section is shaded to reflect the state Democratic Party's scheduling while the right is for the state Republican Party's decision on the timing of its delegate selection event.

Reading the Calendar:

1. Caucus states are italicized while primary states are not. Several caucus states are missing from the list because they have not formalized the date on which their contests will be held in 2012. Colorado appears because the caucuses dates there are set by the state, whereas a state like Alaska has caucuses run by the state parties and as such do not have their dates codified in state law.
2. States that have changed dates appear twice (or more) on the calendar; once by the old date and once by the new date. The old date will be struck through while the new date will be color-coded with the amount of movement (in days) in parentheses. States in green are states that have moved to earlier dates on the calendar and states in red are those that have moved to later dates. Arkansas, for example, has moved its 2012 primary and moved it back 104 days from its 2008 position.
3. The date of any primary or caucus moves that have taken place -- whether through gubernatorial signature or state party move -- also appear in parentheses following the state's/party's new entry on the calendar.
4. States with active legislation have links to those bills included with their entries on the calendar. If there are multiple bills they are divided by chamber and/or numbered accordingly.
5. Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina appear twice. The earlier entry corresponds with the latest possible date these states would have if Florida opts not to move their primary into compliance with the national party rules. The second, later entry for each of the non-exempt states reflects the position the national parties would prefer the earliest states to hold their delegate selection events.

2012 Presidential Primary Calendar

January 2012

Monday, January 16:

Iowa caucuses¹

Tuesday, January 24:

New Hampshire¹

Saturday, January 28:

Nevada caucuses¹

South Carolina¹

A note on the placement of Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina.

Tuesday, January 31:

Florida (bills: House 1, 2/Senate)

February 2012

Monday, February 6:

Iowa caucuses (moved: 2/8/11) (based on national party rules)

Tuesday, February 7 (Super Tuesday):

Alabama (bills: House 1, 2)

Arkansas

California (bills: Assembly)

Connecticut (bills: House)

Delaware

Georgia (bills: House)

Illinois

Minnesota caucuses (+28) (moved: 3/1/11)

Missouri (bills: House 1, 2, 3/Senate)

Montana Republican caucuses

New Jersey (bills: Assembly 1, 2/Senate)

New York

Oklahoma

Tennessee

Utah

Saturday, February 11:

Louisiana (bills: House)

Tuesday, February 14:

Maryland (bills: House/Senate 1, 2)

New Hampshire (based on national party rules)

Virginia

Washington, DC

Saturday, February 18:

Nevada Republican caucuses (-28) (moved: 12/16/10) (based on national party rules)

Nevada Democratic caucuses² (-28) (moved: 2/24/11) (based on national party rules)

Tuesday, February 21:

Hawaii Republican caucuses (+87) (moved: 5/16/09)

Wisconsin

Tuesday, February 28:

Arizona³

Michigan⁴ (bills: House)

South Carolina (based on national party rules)

March 2012

Tuesday, March 6:

Massachusetts⁴ (bills: House)

Ohio

Oklahoma (-28) (bills: House 1, 2, 3/Senate 1, 2) (moved: 5/3/11)

Rhode Island

Tennessee (-28) (bills: House 1, 2, 3/Senate 1, 2, 3)

Texas (bills: House/Senate)

Vermont

Virginia (-21) (bills: House 1, 2/Senate) (moved: 3/25/11)

Sunday, March 11:

Maine Democratic caucuses (-28) (moved: 3/27/11)

Tuesday, March 13:

Mississippi

Utah Democratic caucuses (-35) (moved: 3/25/11)

Tuesday, March 20:

Colorado caucuses⁵ (bills: House)

Illinois (-42) (bills: Senate) (signed: 3/17/10)

April 2012

Tuesday, April 3:

Kansas (bills: House/Senate -- cancel primary)

Washington, DC (-49) (bills: Council) (moved: 4/27/11)

Saturday, April 7:

Hawaii Democratic caucuses (-46) (moved: 3/18/11)

Wyoming Democratic caucuses (-28) (moved: 3/16/11)

Saturday, April 14:

Nebraska Democratic caucuses (-60) (moved: 3/5/11)

Sunday, April 15:

Alaska Democratic caucuses (-70) (moved: 4/4/11)

Washington Democratic caucuses (-64) (moved: 4/30/11)

Tuesday, April 24:

Pennsylvania

May 2012

Saturday, May 5:

Michigan Democratic caucuses (-111) (moved: 4/13/11)

Tuesday, May 8:

Indiana

North Carolina (bills: Senate)

West Virginia

Tuesday, May 15:

Idaho (+7) (bills: House) (signed: 2/23/11)

Nebraska

Oregon (bills: House)

Tuesday, May 22:

Arkansas (-107) (bills: House) (signed: 2/4/09)

Idaho

Kentucky (bills: House) (died: legislature adjourned)

Washington (bills: House 1, 2/Senate -- cancel primary)

June 2012

Tuesday, June 5:

Montana (GOP -121) (moved: 6/18/10)

New Mexico⁶ (bills: Senate) (died: legislature adjourned)

North Dakota Democratic caucuses (-121) (moved: 4/21/11)

South Dakota

¹ New Hampshire law calls for the Granite state to hold a primary on the second Tuesday of March or seven days prior to any other similar election, whichever is earlier. Florida is first now, so New Hampshire would be a week earlier at the latest. Traditionally, Iowa has gone on the Monday a week prior to New Hampshire. For the time being we'll wedge South Carolina in on the Saturday between New Hampshire and Florida, but these are just guesses at the moment. Any rogue states could cause a shift.

² The Nevada Democratic caucuses date is based on both DNC rules and the state party's draft delegate selection plan as of February 24, 2011.

³ In Arizona the governor can use his or her proclamation powers to move the state's primary to a date on which the event would have an impact on the nomination. In 2004 and 2008 the primary was moved to the first Tuesday in February.
⁴ Massachusetts and Michigan are the only states that passed a frontloading bill prior to 2008 that was not permanent. The Bay state reverts to its first Tuesday in March date in 2012 while Michigan will fall back to the fourth Tuesday in February.
⁵ The Colorado Democratic and Republican parties have the option to move their caucuses from the third Tuesday in March to the first Tuesday in February.
⁶ The law in New Mexico allows the parties to decide when to hold their nominating contests. The Democrats have gone in early February in the last two cycles, but the GOP has held steady in June. They have the option of moving however.

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Tennessee Presidential Primary to March 6

On Monday May 9, Governor Bill Haslam (R) signed HB 612, moving the Tennessee presidential primary from the first Tuesday in February to the first Tuesday in March. The Volunteer state now joins both Oklahoma and Virginia in moving to March 6 and also Maryland and Washington, DC as states (or districts) to have shifted their delegate selection events to later dates.

[Click to Enlarge]

See the updated 2012 presidential primary calendar here.

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