The 2012 Presidential Primary Calendar (9/30/11)

Florida and Wisconsin now have official dates on the calendar.

[Click to Enlarge]

2012 Presidential Primary Calendar

Yet to decide/be confirmed:

Iowa Republicans

New Hampshire

Nevada Republicans

South Carolina Republicans

Missouri Democrats

January 2012

Tuesday, January 31: Florida

February 2012

Monday, February 6:

Iowa Democratic caucuses  (based on DNC rules and submitted delegate selection plan)

Saturday, February 4:
(through February 11) Maine Republican caucuses 


Tuesday, February 7:

Colorado Republican caucuses 

Minnesota Republican caucuses
Missouri (non-binding)

Saturday, February 18:

Nevada Democratic caucuses (based on DNC rules and submitted delegate selection plan)

Tuesday, February 28:

Arizona

Michigan (bill keeping primary on February 28 awaiting gubernatorial action)
South Carolina Democratic primary (based on DNC rules and submitted delegate selection plan)

March 2012

Saturday, March 3:
Washington Republican caucuses


Tuesday, March 6 (Super Tuesday):
Alaska Republican district conventions

Colorado Democratic caucuses 
Georgia
Idaho Republican caucuses 

Massachusetts (active legislation would move primary to June -- unlikely to pass)
Minnesota Democratic caucuses 
North Dakota Republican caucuses

Ohio
Oklahoma 

Tennessee 

Texas 

Vermont
Virginia
(through March 10) Wyoming Republican caucuses

Saturday, March 10: 
Kansas Republican caucuses


Sunday, March 11:
Maine Democratic caucuses


Tuesday, March 13:
Alabama 

Hawaii Republican caucuses
Mississippi
Utah Democratic caucuses

Saturday, March 17:
Missouri Republican caucuses


Tuesday, March 20: 

Illinois

Saturday, March 24:
Louisiana 

April 2012

Tuesday, April 3:

Maryland
Washington, DC
Wisconsin

Saturday, April 7:
Hawaii Democratic caucuses
Wyoming Democratic caucuses

Saturday, April 14:
Idaho Democratic caucuses 
Kansas Democratic caucuses 
Nebraska Democratic caucuses

Sunday, April 15:

Alaska Democratic caucuses
(through May 5) Florida Democratic caucuses
Washington Democratic caucuses

Tuesday, April 24:

Connecticut
Delaware
New York
Pennsylvania
Rhode Island 

May 2012

Saturday, May 5:
Michigan Democratic caucuses


Tuesday, May 8:

Indiana

North Carolina (active legislation would move primary to March 6 -- unlikely to pass)

West Virginia

Tuesday, May 15:

Nebraska

Oregon

Tuesday, May 22:

Arkansas 

Kentucky 

June 2012

Tuesday, June 5:

California
Montana
New Jersey 

New Mexico
North Dakota Democratic caucuses
South Dakota

Tuesday, June 26:
Utah (Republicans only) 

Recent Posts:

UPDATE: Final Presidential Primary Calendar Will Not Be Set Until After October 22 ...or maybe earlier

Wisconsin Presidential Primary to April 3

Florida Narrows the Calendar Scenarios to Three

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UPDATE: Final Presidential Primary Calendar Will Not Be Set Until After October 22 ...or maybe earlier

UPDATE: Politico's Reid Epstein is reporting this evening that the Nevada GOP is holding an emergency Executive Committee meeting tonight. That obviously changes the outlook of the calendar. Also, it looks like states/state parties are heeding the October 1 deadline, penalty-less though it may be.

Veteran Nevada political reporter, Jon Ralston, tweeted earlier that the Nevada Republican Party was considering a first week in February caucus. That would keep the party's contest compliant -- in February for an exempt state -- and not cost the Nevada GOP half of their 28 delegates. He also just now tweeted that the meeting tonight was not decisive and that the Executive Committee will meet again on deadline day tomorrow.

Here is more from Laura Myers at the Las Vegas Review Journal:

[Nevada GOP chair Amy] Tarkanian said she didn't know what date Nevada might choose, but she wanted to ensure the state holds its caucuses ahead of most states so the date could shift toward Feb. 1.

And on Nevada Democrats:  

The Nevada Democratic Party criticized Florida for disrupting plans by the two main political parties to establish a presidential nominating season designed to make more states count.

"Florida's announcement today risks the integrity and intent of the presidential nominating calendar and is a blatant violation of the rules agreed upon by the national committees of both parties," Party Chairwoman Roberta Lange said Friday in a statement.

Lange also said Nevada Democrats might move up the date of their presidential caucuses to sometime in January in reaction to Florida moving its primary to Jan. 31.

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Original Post:

Nevada is the new Florida.

Now that Florida is officially on the 2012 presidential primary calendar, all that is left to figure out at the front is where the earliest four exempt states will position their primaries and caucuses. Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina now have 30 days in which to fit four nominating contests. As we mentioned earlier today -- post-Florida -- South Carolina is fairly easy to place. The latest possible date South Carolina could and likely will fall on is Saturday, January 28.

But when it comes to the next two pieces in the puzzle -- Nevada and New Hampshire -- have a conflict and it won't/can't be dealt with until October 22 at the earliest. Again, the Nevada Republican Party over the summer changed the rules surrounding the party's precinct caucuses, coupling the scheduling of Silver state Republicans' contest with the scheduling of the New Hampshire primary. The rule calls for the Nevada caucuses to fall on the Saturday following the New Hampshire primary. That creates a conflict with the Granite state. New Hampshire law requires that the primary there be scheduled for a date that is seven days prior to any similar contest.

Something has to give and as I suggested earlier, that give is likely going to come from Nevada's end. New Hampshire would have to change its law or settle for a non-Tuesday election date. Neither of those are likely to happen and Bill Gardner is willing to threaten to take Nevada and Iowa into 2011 as leverage to gain more than four days separation from Nevada. Plus, it is just easier for a party to change a rule than it is for a state legislature/government to change an election law -- especially when it is out of session.

That brings us back to October 22. That is the date on which the Nevada Republican Party Executive Committee meeting will occur according to Karoun Demirjian at the Las Vegas Sun. South Carolina may or may not weigh in before then -- sooner probably rather than later -- but Nevada will not be able to address the conflict with New Hampshire until late October. That, in turn, will impact when New Hampshire and then Iowa will set their dates.

And by that point we will be two months out from the likely start of the primary season.

Recent Posts:

Wisconsin Presidential Primary to April 3

Florida Narrows the Calendar Scenarios to Three

Florida Presidential Primary to January 31

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Wisconsin Presidential Primary to April 3

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Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker today signed SB 115, moving the Badger state presidential primary to April 3 and back into compliance with national party delegate selection rules.

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Walker's statement on the move:

"Holding Wisconsin's presidential primary election on the same day as the routine spring elections will make the administration of our elections more cost efficient-saving valuable taxpayer dollars," Walker said in a release. "I was pleased to sign a bill into law this morning that received support from Republicans, Democrats and the Legislature's one independent member."

Recent Posts:

Florida Narrows the Calendar Scenarios to Three

Florida Presidential Primary to January 31

The 2012 Presidential Primary Calendar (9/29/11)

Are you following FHQ on Twitter, Google+ and Facebook? Click on the links to join in.

Florida Narrows the Calendar Scenarios to Three

FHQ will skip the hemming and hawing over the Florida Presidential Preference Date Selection Committee decision to schedule the Sunshine state primary for January 31. That is being covered adequately elsewhere. Now that Florida is locked in to a non-compliant date, however, what does it mean for the likely calendar positions Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina will adopt? One less state up in the air means there are fewer scenarios that are plausible.

FHQ sees three most likely scenarios and they obviously depend on a couple of things.
1. If South Carolina Republican Party Chair Chad Connelly is to be believed, then South Carolina Republicans will hold a January 28 primary -- the latest possible date that keeps Palmetto state Republicans ahead of Florida.

2. The one thing that will settle how the rest of the calendar looks is what is going to take place between Nevada and New Hampshire. Nevada Republican rules now call for the caucus in the Silver state to be held on the Saturday after the New Hampshire primary. That violates the New Hampshire law calling for a seven day buffer between the Granite state primary and the next contest. Something will have to be worked out and it is likely to favor New Hampshire if only because the New Hampshire General Court (legislature) is not likely to reconvene and change the law. Changing a party rule is much easier at this point.

That leaves three options:
Option 1 (New Hampshire waits out Nevada and goes 11 days earlier)

Monday, January 2: Iowa
Tuesday, January 10: New Hampshire
Saturday, January 21: Nevada
Saturday, January 28: South Carolina
Tuesday, January 31: Florida

Option 2 (Nevada chooses a non-Saturday to hold caucuses)

Tuesday, January 10: Iowa (BCS championship on January 9 pushes Iowa to Tuesday)
Tuesday, January 17: New Hampshire
Tuesday, January 24: Nevada
Saturday, January 28: South Carolina
Tuesday, January 31: Florida

Option 3 (New Hampshire breaks its own law)

Tuesday, January 10: Iowa (BCS championship on January 9 pushes Iowa to Tuesday)
Tuesday, January 17: New Hampshire
Saturday, January 21: Nevada
Saturday, January 28: South Carolina
Tuesday, January 31: Florida

New Hampshire Secretary of State Bill Gardner has been pretty clear that Nevada coming on the heels of New Hampshire -- the Saturday after -- is a nonstarter. That all but eliminates Option 3. What is at issue, then, is what Nevada is going to do assuming South Carolina decides on a January 28 primary. Will they go a week earlier than South Carolina, change their tether rule and allow New Hampshire to go eleven days earlier or will Nevada opt to change the rule and hold a weekday -- Tuesday, January 24 perhaps -- caucus? Again, assuming South Carolina ultimately settles on January 28, that Nevada question will be the one to solve the rest of the calendar.

--
UPDATE:
Option 3a (New Hampshire opts for a non-Tuesday primary date)

Saturday, January 7: Iowa 
Saturday, January 14: New Hampshire
Saturday, January 21: Nevada
Saturday, January 28: South Carolina
Tuesday, January 31: Florida

This one is 3a and not 4 because New Hampshire making any changes or breaking from the tradition of going on Tuesday is far-fetched. But FHQ should make note of the fact that New Hampshire law does not require Bill Gardner to set the date of the primary on a Tuesday. That likely won't happen, but neither will December primaires.

Recent Posts:

Florida Presidential Primary to January 31

The 2012 Presidential Primary Calendar (9/29/11)

Missouri Republicans Will Caucus on March 17

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Florida Presidential Primary to January 31

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The Florida Presidential Preference Primary Date Selection Committee today selected January 31 as the date of the Florida presidential primary.

Recent Posts:

The 2012 Presidential Primary Calendar (9/29/11)

Missouri Republicans Will Caucus on March 17

In Missouri, Could a Switch to Caucuses Help Avert a January Start to Primary Season?

Are you following FHQ on Twitter, Google+ and Facebook? Click on the links to join in.

The 2012 Presidential Primary Calendar (9/29/11)

Georgia and Missouri Republicans are now officially on the calendar.

[Click to Enlarge]

2012 Presidential Primary Calendar

Yet to decide/be confirmed:

Iowa Republicans

New Hampshire

Nevada Republicans

South Carolina Republicans

Florida

Missouri Democrats

Wisconsin

February 2012

Monday, February 6:

Iowa Democratic caucuses  (based on DNC rules and submitted delegate selection plan)

Saturday, February 4:
(through February 11) Maine Republican caucuses 


Tuesday, February 7:

Colorado Republican caucuses 

Minnesota Republican caucuses
Missouri (non-binding)

Saturday, February 18:

Nevada Democratic caucuses (based on DNC rules and submitted delegate selection plan)

Tuesday, February 21:

Wisconsin (bill moving primary to April 3 awaiting gubernatorial action)

Tuesday, February 28:

Arizona

Michigan (bill keeping primary on February 28 awaiting gubernatorial action)
South Carolina Democratic primary (based on DNC rules and submitted delegate selection plan)

March 2012

Saturday, March 3:
Washington Republican caucuses


Tuesday, March 6 (Super Tuesday):
Alaska Republican district conventions

Colorado Democratic caucuses 
Georgia
Idaho Republican caucuses 

Massachusetts (active legislation would move primary to June -- unlikely to pass)
Minnesota Democratic caucuses 
North Dakota Republican caucuses

Ohio
Oklahoma 

Tennessee 

Texas 

Vermont
Virginia
(through March 10) Wyoming Republican caucuses

Saturday, March 10: 
Kansas Republican caucuses


Sunday, March 11:
Maine Democratic caucuses


Tuesday, March 13:
Alabama 

Hawaii Republican caucuses
Mississippi
Utah Democratic caucuses

Saturday, March 17:
Missouri Republican caucuses


Tuesday, March 20: 

Illinois

Saturday, March 24:
Louisiana 

April 2012

Tuesday, April 3:

Maryland
Washington, DC

Saturday, April 7:
Hawaii Democratic caucuses
Wyoming Democratic caucuses

Saturday, April 14:
Idaho Democratic caucuses 
Kansas Democratic caucuses 
Nebraska Democratic caucuses

Sunday, April 15:

Alaska Democratic caucuses
Washington Democratic caucuses

Tuesday, April 24:

Connecticut
Delaware
New York
Pennsylvania
Rhode Island 

May 2012

Saturday, May 5:
Michigan Democratic caucuses


Tuesday, May 8:

Indiana

North Carolina (active legislation would move primary to March 6 -- unlikely to pass)

West Virginia

Tuesday, May 15:

Nebraska

Oregon

Tuesday, May 22:

Arkansas 

Kentucky 

June 2012

Tuesday, June 5:

California
Montana
New Jersey 

New Mexico
North Dakota Democratic caucuses
South Dakota

Tuesday, June 26:
Utah (Republicans only)

Recent Posts:

Missouri Republicans Will Caucus on March 17

In Missouri, Could a Switch to Caucuses Help Avert a January Start to Primary Season?

Georgia Presidential Primary to March 6

Are you following FHQ on Twitter, Google+ and Facebook? Click on the links to join in.

Missouri Republicans Will Caucus on March 17

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KY3 in Springfield has the story.

Here is the rundown of the newly defined delegate selection process the Missouri Republican Party will use in 2012:  

*The County Caucuses will take place on March 17, 2012.  At these caucuses, which are open to any Republican who is registered to vote in that county, attendees will select delegates and alternates to the Congressional District Conventions and State Convention.  No delegates to the national convention are selected at this time.  The number of delegates and alternates per county is determined by the Missouri Republican Party based upon the number of GOP votes cast in the last presidential election. 

* The Congressional District Conventions will take place on April 21, 2012.  At each of these 8 conventions, delegates chosen at the county level will select 3 delegates and alternates to the National Convention and 1 presidential elector.  The delegates and alternates will be required to declare allegiance to a candidate prior to the voting, and they will be bound to that candidate on the first ballot—unless they are released prior to the convention. 

*The State Convention will take place on June 2, 2012.  At the convention, delegates chosen at the county level will vote on 26 at-large delegates and alternates to the National Convention and 2 at large presidential electors.  The delegates and alternates will be required to declare allegiance to a candidate prior to the voting, and they will be bound to that candidate on the first ballot—unless they are released prior to the convention.In total, Missouri will have 52 delegates and 49 alternates to the Republican National Convention — 24 selected at the congressional district caucuses, 25 selected at the state convention, and 1 delegate (but no alternate) for the state Party chairman, national committeeman and national committeewoman. 

The ball is definitely in Florida's court now.

--
We'll move the Missouri Democrats to "No Date" for the time being, but FHQ fully expects the party to utilize the municipal ward caucuses already scheduled to begin on March 29. Until that announcement, however, FHQ will keep them as undetermined.

Recent Posts:

In Missouri, Could a Switch to Caucuses Help Avert a January Start to Primary Season?

Georgia Presidential Primary to March 6

The 2012 Presidential Primary Calendar (9/28/11)

Are you following FHQ on Twitter, Google+ and Facebook? Click on the links to join in.

In Missouri, Could a Switch to Caucuses Help Avert a January Start to Primary Season?

That the Missouri Republican Party is considering a switch from a non-compliant to a non-binding primary -- adopting a caucus/convention process as a means of allocating their presidential delegates -- has been discussed today. One interesting thing that has not been as widely discussed, however, is the timing of the Missouri Republican Party State Central Committee meeting/announcement to address the primary conundrum in the Show Me state: Thursday night. If that announcement on the eve of the Florida Presidential Preference Primary Date Selection Committee's likely decision to shift the Sunshine state primary to January 31 pulls the Missouri delegate selection process back into compliance with RNC rules and out of Florida's way, does that also trigger a reconsideration of the primary date in Tallahassee?

Beyond that, is the presence of non-binding caucuses in Colorado, Maine and Minnesota in early February enough to keep Florida on January 31? Again, the special session stalemate over the presidential primary legislation in Missouri is the impetus for Florida's expected jump back into January after a brief summer respite. The rollercoaster ride of bill passage, vetoes and special session gridlock in the Show Me state throughout 2011 is seemingly the biggest roadblock now to the national parties' efforts to have a delayed start to the 2012 presidential primary calendar (relative to 2008).

A few other notes on the Missouri situation:
Some are questioning the legality of a potential move away from a primary to caucus in Missouri. As has been mentioned elsewhere, there is nothing in the Missouri Revised Statutes that requires the results of the state's presidential primary be used as a means of determining the allocation of delegates. There is a good reason for that: Delegate allocation is something that is left up to the parties to determine. Granted, most everything in the presidential primary process is left up to either the state or national parties to decide. A nomination is, after all, a party function not a state one.

What puts the states in conflict with the parties is the issue of most state parties opting into a state-funded primary election. Opting in brings with it state control over dates of the contests but not necessarily who can participate (see Tashjian v. Republican Party and California Democratic Party v. Jones). If a state party does not like the date of the state-funded primary it can opt out and pay for its own primary or caucus. That is what happened in Nebraska and Montana recently. In both cases, the state-funded primaries were only advisory. Republicans in Nebraska have merely used the May Nebraska primary as a beauty contest prior to a later caucus/convention process. The same was true for Montana Republicans in 2008. The June primary was merely for show following February caucuses that began the true delegate selection process. Washington Democrats likewise have also not utilized the state-funded primary as a means of allocating delegates since a voter initiative brought the presidential primary into existence in the 1990s. There are plenty of precedents Missouri can cite if challenged on a for-show primary along with a consequential caucus process.

The state is unlikely to object to the move other than, perhaps, on financial grounds. Millions of state taxpayer dollars will go to fund a meaningless election in February that likely won't go over well, but neither would further expenditures by the state for legal fees in a futile lawsuit. The RNC won't object either. A switch to a caucus system -- particularly one that is compliant with the party's timing rules -- would get the RNC closer to its ideal calendar. In fact, it is likely a safe assumption that the RNC has been leaning on the Missouri GOP to jump to a caucus system in the time since it became clear that the presidential primary legislation in the General Assembly was going nowhere. It keeps with the standard line the RNC provides to calendar questions; that the national party is working to keep all states in (or as close to) compliance with the timing rules.¹

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Can the primary to caucus switch be made? Yes. Will it bring Florida back from the brink? Probably not. But we shall see.

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¹ The initial Florida-to-January-31 story from CNN did make mention of the RNC attempting to broker a February 21 Florida primary. Those discussions likely included some mention of a Missouri switch. And that probably indicates, more than anything else, that the three non-binding caucus states are a problem to Florida because the reaction to the February 21 proposal was panned by those tied to the PPPDSC in Florida.

Recent Posts:

Georgia Presidential Primary to March 6

The 2012 Presidential Primary Calendar (9/28/11)

Signs Point Toward a March 6 Presidential Primary in Georgia

Are you following FHQ on Twitter, Google+ and Facebook? Click on the links to join in.

Georgia Presidential Primary to March 6

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Georgia Secretary of State Brian Kemp has just announced that the Georgia presidential primary will be held on Tuesday, March 6. That secret came out last night. What was more revealing to FHQ was that Secretary Kemp made several comments about the way in which the Georgia Republican Party will allocate its delegates.

The highlights (We'll have more analysis later.):

• The allocation will be proportional, but with winner-take-all triggers. 
• To get any delegates, whether statewide or at the congressional district level, a candidate must clear the 20% vote threshold.
• A candidate can take all of a congressional district's three delegates (42 delegates in total) if he or she surpasses the 50% barrier in the vote total. Otherwise, the top vote-getter in the district will be apportioned 2 delegates with the second place finisher taking the remaining delegate.
• FHQ will have to listen back to Secretary Kemp's answer on the delegate allocation question to confirm whether those threshold rules also apply to the 30 statewide, at-large delegates.

Those rules can be consequential depending on the dynamics of the race at the time Georgia rolls around on March 6. If the race has narrowed to two candidates, then the likelihood of a more winner-take-most allocation of the delegates becomes much more likely. If the field has not been winnowed much, then a more proportional allocation in application is likely. For more on that see our previous entry on the subject.

For more on the implications of this move for Georgia, see last night's post.

Recent Posts:

The 2012 Presidential Primary Calendar (9/28/11)

Signs Point Toward a March 6 Presidential Primary in Georgia

Alaska GOP to Hold March 6 District Conventions

Are you following FHQ on Twitter, Google+ and Facebook? Click on the links to join in.

The 2012 Presidential Primary Calendar (9/28/11)

Republican contests in Alaska and North Dakota are now off the board and on the calendar:

[Click to Enlarge]

2012 Presidential Primary Calendar

Yet to decide/be confirmed:

Iowa Republicans

New Hampshire

Nevada Republicans

South Carolina Republicans

Florida
Georgia

Missouri

Wisconsin

February 2012

Monday, February 6:

Iowa Democratic caucuses  (based on DNC rules and submitted delegate selection plan)

Saturday, February 4:
(through February 11) Maine Republican caucuses 


Tuesday, February 7:

Colorado Republican caucuses 

Minnesota Republican caucuses
Missouri (could move to March 6)

Saturday, February 18:

Nevada Democratic caucuses (based on DNC rules and submitted delegate selection plan)

Tuesday, February 21:

Wisconsin (bill moving primary to April 3 awaiting gubernatorial action)

Tuesday, February 28:

Arizona

Michigan (bill keeping primary on February 28 awaiting gubernatorial action)
South Carolina Democratic primary (based on DNC rules and submitted delegate selection plan)

March 2012

Saturday, March 3:
Washington Republican caucuses


Tuesday, March 6 (Super Tuesday):
Alaska Republican district conventions

Colorado Democratic caucuses 
Idaho Republican caucuses 

Massachusetts (active legislation would move primary to June -- unlikely to pass)
Minnesota Democratic caucuses 
North Dakota Republican caucuses

Ohio
Oklahoma 

Tennessee 

Texas 

Vermont
Virginia
(through March 10) Wyoming Republican caucuses

Saturday, March 10: 
Kansas Republican caucuses


Sunday, March 11:
Maine Democratic caucuses


Tuesday, March 13:
Alabama 

Hawaii Republican caucuses
Mississippi
Utah Democratic caucuses

Tuesday, March 20: 

Illinois

Saturday, March 24:
Louisiana 

April 2012

Tuesday, April 3:

Maryland
Washington, DC

Saturday, April 7:
Hawaii Democratic caucuses
Wyoming Democratic caucuses

Saturday, April 14:
Idaho Democratic caucuses 
Kansas Democratic caucuses 
Nebraska Democratic caucuses

Sunday, April 15:

Alaska Democratic caucuses
Washington Democratic caucuses

Tuesday, April 24:

Connecticut
Delaware
New York
Pennsylvania
Rhode Island 

May 2012

Saturday, May 5:
Michigan Democratic caucuses


Tuesday, May 8:

Indiana

North Carolina (active legislation would move primary to March 6 -- unlikely to pass)

West Virginia

Tuesday, May 15:

Nebraska

Oregon

Tuesday, May 22:

Arkansas 

Kentucky 

June 2012

Tuesday, June 5:

California
Montana
New Jersey 

New Mexico
North Dakota Democratic caucuses
South Dakota

Tuesday, June 26:
Utah (Republicans only) 

Recent Posts:

Signs Point Toward a March 6 Presidential Primary in Georgia

Alaska GOP to Hold March 6 District Conventions

Georgia Secretary of State Brian Kemp Set to Schedule Presidential Primary

Are you following FHQ on Twitter, Google+ and Facebook? Click on the links to join in.