Far be it from me to introduce political science into all the fun we've been having here at FHQ since the nomination races commenced, but a couple of blog posts have popped up over the last couple of weeks that have caught my attention...and are rooted in professional political science in one way or another.
The first link comes from poblano, a contributor over at the Daily Kos. Sure, sure that liberal bastion. However, he's put together a rather nice regression analysis of the contest on the Democratic side; isolating a handful of variables that he(?) hypothesizes affect the two candidate vote share between Clinton and Obama. With the ten or so variables included, 95% of the variation in that two candidate vote share has been explained in the contests up to (not through) last weekend's contests in Washington, Nebraska and Louisiana. Check out the link above for the particulars. The interesting part (And you knew we'd get there, right?) is that the results are then taken and used to predict the finishes in the upcoming contests. I like the analogy that Ohio is simply a replay of Missouri with fewer Southern Baptists. I don't know that Ohio will play out like that (a narrow Obama win), but you can't argue with the demographic similarities between the two states. The sense I gathered from the live discussion group last Wednesday was that Obama's chances were better in Texas than Ohio. So it is interesting to see some evidence to the contrary. The polls continue to show healthy leads in both for Clinton (Ohio and Texas via Real Clear Politics).
And speaking of the live discussion group, one topic that was raised this past week was the differences in campaign tactics on both sides if the parties switched delegate selection rules. The second blog post I happened upon this week doesn't address this directly, but it does examine how the delegate count would differ now if the parties employed the delegate allocation rules of the other. The Monkey Cage (Yes, a political science blog from some faculty at George Washington University.) highlights some of these differences (via Michael Franz at Bowdoin) in their post. Obama's lead increases under Republican delegate rules while doubt would be cast on McCain's inevitability had the GOP nomination been waged under Democratic allocation rules.
Let the discussion begin (...on an otherwise slow weekend). I'll be back later with an update on what's been happening in the news during my blogging absence these last two days.
Showing posts with label delegates. Show all posts
Showing posts with label delegates. Show all posts
Saturday, February 16, 2008
Thursday, February 14, 2008
100 is the Magic Number
Being a child of the 70s, I was always taught--by Schoolhouse Rocks--that three was the magic number (Oh fine, I suppose my exposure to SHR was during the 80s when ABC tried to wedge educational material in between my Looney Toons.).
In the race for the Democratic nomination though, a different calculus is emerging. Both campaigns are beginning to cite 100 delegates as the margin to look for as the primary season draws to a close (Yes, it seems weird to talk about the season coming to an end, especially since that end won't come until June. However, things have really slowed down post-Super Tuesday and there are only 16 contests remaining on the Democratic side. It is interesting that there are also 16 weeks left before South Dakota brings up the rear on June 3. That's an average of one contest per week.). The Obama camp is contending that anything over a 100 delegate margin in his favor will be enough to claim the nomination within the court of public opinion. The Clinton folks are hoping to bring that margin under 100 so they can argue that the nomination is still undecided. Even with something as seemingly minuscule as 100 being the magic number, it will be difficult for Clinton to catch up without decisive victories in the states that comprise this stretch run. 51/49 victories in her favor in those primaries (There are only two caucuses left--in Hawaii on Feb. 19 and Wyoming on March 8.) will not allot her enough of a delegate spread to make up that difference or get it under 100 for that matter.
The one wild card, as we've mentioned countless times, is the superdelegate distribution among the two. Obama was out yesterday after his Potomac sweep talking momentum which was no doubt a claim directed at those superdelegates still on the fence. It is a testament to the strength of Clinton's candidacy that, unlike recent cycles, these superdelegates aren't already coalescing behind Obama at this point. And here's where another calculus enters the discussion; the calculus that each of these undecided superdelegates is going through. They have to not only balance their own personal feelings, but must also consider (at least those holding elective office) the feelings/decisions of their constituents in the primaries and caucuses. Of course those "personal feelings" include considerations of their own upward ambition within the party, their perceptions of general election electability and their relationships with the candidate (if they exist).
So what are the knowns and unknowns within that calculus (and further, how do we weight each)?
Knowns:
1) Electability: Well, the head-to-head general election polls conducted recently give us some indication there: that Obama has the edge over Clinton in hypothetical races against McCain (Real Clear Politics: Obama v. McCain; Clinton v. McCain). Obama has a consistent lead over McCain while Clinton and McCain are within the margin of error of each other. On the electability issue, the scale tips toward Obama.
2) Primaries and Caucuses so far: We also know the decisions of voters in 34 states plus DC. In those 35 contests, Obama leads 22-13. Sure that's as misleading as using a predominantly red electoral college map to demonstrate a close election (Remember those maps from 2000? Looking at them, you'd think a person making that claim was crazy.), but these primary/caucus results carry weight with the elected officials in those states. On the one hand you have evenly divided states like Missouri and New Mexico and on the other caucus states that have given Obama between 2:1 and 3:1 level victories. One could argue that a greater proportion of Democratic elected officials in those latter states would break for Obama than the proportion in the contest. Whereas in those evenly divided states, superdelegates could break either way. The bandwagon effect is clearly a resultant factor in these individuals' calculi. So too though is the idea that this segment of the delegates to the convention will be the decisive one. Going against the constituency is generally considered in a negative regard when this issue is raised.
The rest of these factors are less known than the above and fall into the unknown category:
Unknowns:
1) Personal feelings/relationships with the candidates: Look, public officials are, more often than not, going to go public with incendiary remarks concerning another public official (...unless this is a discussion about Dick Cheney and Patrick Leahy inside the Capitol.). So this one is a tough one to get at. We can probably glean some of these feelings from the relationships we know exist. Both Obama and Clinton have some relationship with Democratic senators. Some of those folks have weighed in, others haven't (Here's the full list.). Further, you'd imagine that Obama has some relationship with the Democratic members of the Illinois Senate as well. But for those still undecided, good luck attempting to ascertain these factors.
2) Upward ambition: Well, everyone of these elected officials could be considered upwardly mobile to some extent. But that's the catch, we don't know the extent to which these folks are upwardly ambitious. One thing we do know, is that, on the whole, these folks want to keep the spots they've got if not move up. We also know that all the members of the House, some members of the Senate and some members of state legislatures are up for re-election this fall. And choosing incorrectly in this fight wouldn't necessarily help. Politicians, like elephants (Oops, wrong party. I don't have a sense about how strong donkey memories are.), have long memories and won't soon forget someone who chose incorrectly.
This is where the strength of Clinton's candidacy is most likely to figure in. For starters, she has nearly half of the delegates allocated thus far. Without that and under the circumstances of the typical nomination campaign of the last ten years or so, Obama would have this thing wrapped up. But if 2008 has proven anything, it is that it is not a typical cycle. In other words, until Clinton is out, you can't count her out. Those on the fence then are more likely to remain there if Clinton's bid is still perceived to be legitimate.
This is a lot for these undecided folks to weigh and underscores the potential for division within the Democratic party as it heads toward the Denver convention in August. Both the candidates and these superdelegates are treading a very fine line on this and it is still very much up in the air as to how this whole thing will play out. With all the usual indicators pointing toward a Democratic win this fall, squandering the opportunity would be a real defeat for the Democrats. And I suppose that is another factor to consider.
In the race for the Democratic nomination though, a different calculus is emerging. Both campaigns are beginning to cite 100 delegates as the margin to look for as the primary season draws to a close (Yes, it seems weird to talk about the season coming to an end, especially since that end won't come until June. However, things have really slowed down post-Super Tuesday and there are only 16 contests remaining on the Democratic side. It is interesting that there are also 16 weeks left before South Dakota brings up the rear on June 3. That's an average of one contest per week.). The Obama camp is contending that anything over a 100 delegate margin in his favor will be enough to claim the nomination within the court of public opinion. The Clinton folks are hoping to bring that margin under 100 so they can argue that the nomination is still undecided. Even with something as seemingly minuscule as 100 being the magic number, it will be difficult for Clinton to catch up without decisive victories in the states that comprise this stretch run. 51/49 victories in her favor in those primaries (There are only two caucuses left--in Hawaii on Feb. 19 and Wyoming on March 8.) will not allot her enough of a delegate spread to make up that difference or get it under 100 for that matter.
The one wild card, as we've mentioned countless times, is the superdelegate distribution among the two. Obama was out yesterday after his Potomac sweep talking momentum which was no doubt a claim directed at those superdelegates still on the fence. It is a testament to the strength of Clinton's candidacy that, unlike recent cycles, these superdelegates aren't already coalescing behind Obama at this point. And here's where another calculus enters the discussion; the calculus that each of these undecided superdelegates is going through. They have to not only balance their own personal feelings, but must also consider (at least those holding elective office) the feelings/decisions of their constituents in the primaries and caucuses. Of course those "personal feelings" include considerations of their own upward ambition within the party, their perceptions of general election electability and their relationships with the candidate (if they exist).
So what are the knowns and unknowns within that calculus (and further, how do we weight each)?
Knowns:
1) Electability: Well, the head-to-head general election polls conducted recently give us some indication there: that Obama has the edge over Clinton in hypothetical races against McCain (Real Clear Politics: Obama v. McCain; Clinton v. McCain). Obama has a consistent lead over McCain while Clinton and McCain are within the margin of error of each other. On the electability issue, the scale tips toward Obama.
2) Primaries and Caucuses so far: We also know the decisions of voters in 34 states plus DC. In those 35 contests, Obama leads 22-13. Sure that's as misleading as using a predominantly red electoral college map to demonstrate a close election (Remember those maps from 2000? Looking at them, you'd think a person making that claim was crazy.), but these primary/caucus results carry weight with the elected officials in those states. On the one hand you have evenly divided states like Missouri and New Mexico and on the other caucus states that have given Obama between 2:1 and 3:1 level victories. One could argue that a greater proportion of Democratic elected officials in those latter states would break for Obama than the proportion in the contest. Whereas in those evenly divided states, superdelegates could break either way. The bandwagon effect is clearly a resultant factor in these individuals' calculi. So too though is the idea that this segment of the delegates to the convention will be the decisive one. Going against the constituency is generally considered in a negative regard when this issue is raised.
The rest of these factors are less known than the above and fall into the unknown category:
Unknowns:
1) Personal feelings/relationships with the candidates: Look, public officials are, more often than not, going to go public with incendiary remarks concerning another public official (...unless this is a discussion about Dick Cheney and Patrick Leahy inside the Capitol.). So this one is a tough one to get at. We can probably glean some of these feelings from the relationships we know exist. Both Obama and Clinton have some relationship with Democratic senators. Some of those folks have weighed in, others haven't (Here's the full list.). Further, you'd imagine that Obama has some relationship with the Democratic members of the Illinois Senate as well. But for those still undecided, good luck attempting to ascertain these factors.
2) Upward ambition: Well, everyone of these elected officials could be considered upwardly mobile to some extent. But that's the catch, we don't know the extent to which these folks are upwardly ambitious. One thing we do know, is that, on the whole, these folks want to keep the spots they've got if not move up. We also know that all the members of the House, some members of the Senate and some members of state legislatures are up for re-election this fall. And choosing incorrectly in this fight wouldn't necessarily help. Politicians, like elephants (Oops, wrong party. I don't have a sense about how strong donkey memories are.), have long memories and won't soon forget someone who chose incorrectly.
This is where the strength of Clinton's candidacy is most likely to figure in. For starters, she has nearly half of the delegates allocated thus far. Without that and under the circumstances of the typical nomination campaign of the last ten years or so, Obama would have this thing wrapped up. But if 2008 has proven anything, it is that it is not a typical cycle. In other words, until Clinton is out, you can't count her out. Those on the fence then are more likely to remain there if Clinton's bid is still perceived to be legitimate.
This is a lot for these undecided folks to weigh and underscores the potential for division within the Democratic party as it heads toward the Denver convention in August. Both the candidates and these superdelegates are treading a very fine line on this and it is still very much up in the air as to how this whole thing will play out. With all the usual indicators pointing toward a Democratic win this fall, squandering the opportunity would be a real defeat for the Democrats. And I suppose that is another factor to consider.
Tuesday, February 5, 2008
Super Tuesday Results (Live Blog)
Let's dispatch with the niceties and get right down to business. There are a lot of delegates at stake in today's contests and the fun starts right here in Georgia. Polls closed at 7pm.
7:06pm: Well, it didn't take long here. Georgia was seen as a strong lean to Obama heading into today and having a quick call go his way, is a good start to the evening.
7:13pm: The Drudge Report has some early exit poll numbers up. Obama is way ahead in some states, Clinton in others. California, Massachusetts and Missouri are close (ABC News just called those the bellwether states for Democrats tonight.). New Jersey is a surprising but small lean to Obama. Of course, now Drudge is up with a warning cautioning folks not to put too much stock in exit poll numbers.
7:25pm: Speaking of exit polls, change seems to be the word of the day. Good news for Obama.
From The Caucus:
7:40pm: And what of the GOP? The race is tight in Georgia.
7:57pm: Hold on everyone. 8pm is the biggest poll closing of the night. Buckle up; this next hour could get interesting. Two of those bellwethers close in a few minutes (Massachusetts and Missouri).
8:02pm: CNN has called Illinois for Obama and McCain, Oklahoma for Clinton and Connecticut for McCain.
8:14pm: McCain takes New Jersey and Romney counters with a win in home state Massachusetts.
8:17pm: No real surprises so far. McCain is doing well where the polls had him ahead in the last few days, Romney won in his home state and Clinton and Obama are trading victories evenly.
8:34pm: Polls just closed in Arkansas. Favorite son, Mike Huckabee has already been declared the projected winner. No word on their favorite adopted daughter and former First Lady in the state.
8:37pm: Nevermind. That didn't take long. Clinton takes Arkansas and adds Tennessee as well.
8:39pm: This is an interesting series of results. Huckabee really seems to be doing well (early) in the South. He looks to be in good position in the Alabama, Tennessee, Georgia and Arkansas. Meanwhile, it is hard to get a feel for the results on the Democratic side. I can understand "home" state wins for Obama and Clinton. Georgia resembled South Carolina demographically for Obama, and beyond that, there seems to be a break for Obama in the deep South (Georgia and Alabama) while Clinton is doing well in the "border" states (Tennessee and Arkansas). Other areas are more difficult to peg.
8:46pm: Delaware to McCain. Just a few delegates, but the continuation of the trend in his favor tonight.
8:57pm: Here comes 9pm. Another six states close their polls and we learn more about those unsettled states from the previous hour. New Jersey, I'm looking your way.
9:03pm: Alright, I've reclaimed the TV and I'm tuned in to ABC. They just projected New York and Massachusetts for Clinton, Delaware for Obama and Huckabee continues a nice run in the South with a projected win in Alabama. (Results from CNN and they aren't willing to call Massachusetts for Clinton or Alabama for Huckabee.).
9:12pm: Add the AP to the list of news agencies calling Massachusetts for Clinton and Alabama for Huckabee.
9:16pm: Georgia for the GOP continues to be tight.
9:21pm: ABC News is harping on Huckabee in the South. They showed raw numbers for Oklahoma, Tennessee and Missouri and Huckabee is in great shape in all three. That spells trouble for McCain. The talk on conservative talk radio about McCain being a true conservative may have carried some weight among those Southern conservatives/evangelicals.
9:27pm: Drudge via ABC News (now at commercial break) is projecting Obama the winner in Alabama. Now CNN is following suit.
9:33pm: McCain wins another big one in New York. Ah, the Giuliani factor.
9:39pm: Obama seems to be ahead in all the caucus states that have closed thus far (Kansas, North Dakota, Minnesota and Idaho). So while Clinton has a lead in states (and in delegates), Obama can add some states to the list with wins in these states. And again, these are the red states he's been talking about being able to penetrate in the general election; ones where Clinton wouldn't be able to do as well.
9:46pm: The Caucus talks about the influence of money in the Democratic contest in Massachusetts:
9:57pm: Over to CBS. They've just called Oklahoma for McCain. That helps stem the Southern tide that Huckabee has built this evening.
10pm: A few more states close (Utah, Colorado, Arizona, North Dakota-R). Now NBC gets into the mix. I'm switching to them now. Maybe Tim Russert will get his dry erase board out. There are delegates to be counted so I'm counting on it. No pun intended.
10:01pm: Romney takes Utah. Well, that didn't take long. No surprise. Mormons like Romney.
10:14pm: Another caucus, another Obama lead. This time in Colorado. Why are his people such good caucusers? Even when he lost in Nevada he still won one more delegate. This is an interesting development.
10:18pm: And to follow up, Obama has been declared the winner of the North Dakota caucuses by CNN.
10:22pm: In case you forgot, California's polls close in about thirty-five minutes.
10:25pm: Obama has broken through again in the Northeast with a win in Connecticut. Chalk up another caucus for him in Kansas as well.
10:31pm: NBC calls Utah for Obama.
10:34pm: Drudge is calling big wins for Huckabee in Georgia, Tennessee and Missouri (and Idaho's caucus for Obama). Unbelievable showing for Huckabee in the South. His campaign has made a real statement in this race. Brian Williams and Russert are talking VP for Huckabee. One other thing on Huckabee: he has run a heck of a campaign, especially financially. Think of the bang for his buck that he has gotten versus say, Mitt Romney.
10:39pm: CNN has called Alabama for Huckabee. Is that in the South?
10:45pm: Obama has overtaken Clinton in the delegate count with this recent string of victories in the heartland.
10:46pm: McCain wins in Arizona. Favorite sons (and daughters) are doing well tonight. While Huckabee is winning some contests, McCain is winning a lot of delegates. He may have some problems with the GOP base but he's got a very healthy delegate lead.
10:50pm: Another caucus for Obama. Minnesota goes for him as well. Need I say more. He has really made strides in the Midwest and in the Prairie and Mountain states. If Huckabee is a threat to McCain because of his strength then Obama similarly affects Clinton in the heartland.
10:53pm: We are on the edge of California officially joining the Super Tuesday party. Polls may close shortly there, but if recent surveys are any indication, then we won't know much in tight races on both sides.
10:59pm: ABC disagrees with the above delegate count. They still have Clinton in the lead.
11:00pm: TV has betrayed me. I'm switching to complete online coverage.
11:05pm: No call in the Show-Me state for the Democrats. Missouri is tight but with 78% of precincts reporting, Clinton maintains a five point edge (51-46). It is even tighter for McCain and Huckabee. Only one point separates McCain from Huckabee there.
11:09pm: NBC has called Georgia for Huckabee now.
11:11pm: California is still too close to call on both sides.
11:12pm: Romney wins in North Dakota. Again, it may not be much, but if he can pull out a win in California, then he'll have a few states to hang his hat on.
11:15pm: Add Minnesota's caucuses to Romney's tally.
11:41pm: Obama has added Idaho's caucuses to his column now. Another caucus.
11:47pm: That pesky 9am class is staring me in the face now. Let the delegate counting begin. I'll be back in the morning to wrap things up. An interesting night so far.
The morning after: California may have been "too close to call" once polls closed there, but Missouri takes the cake as the closest state of the night. The tightness of the races on both sides scared the networks off of calling the state until after midnight--four hours after the polls
had closed there (Georgia's GOP race lasted nearly that long as well.). You can't automatically make the claim that Missouri is the new, close general election state, but file the Show-Me state away until November. The baton may be passed their way from Ohio (in the same way that Ohio claimed the mantle from Florida, circa 2000.).
Here are the results (gotta love the maps):
Democrats
Republicans
Now we can all get out our calculators and begin counting delegates in the same way that electoral votes have been counted in the last two presidential general elections.
7:06pm: Well, it didn't take long here. Georgia was seen as a strong lean to Obama heading into today and having a quick call go his way, is a good start to the evening.
7:13pm: The Drudge Report has some early exit poll numbers up. Obama is way ahead in some states, Clinton in others. California, Massachusetts and Missouri are close (ABC News just called those the bellwether states for Democrats tonight.). New Jersey is a surprising but small lean to Obama. Of course, now Drudge is up with a warning cautioning folks not to put too much stock in exit poll numbers.
7:25pm: Speaking of exit polls, change seems to be the word of the day. Good news for Obama.
From The Caucus:
"Georgia Closes: Here’s one thing we can tell you so far from the early exit polls, conducted by Edison/Mitofsky. For Democrats, the most important issue facing the country is the economy, far out-pacing the war in Iraq and health care. Nine of 10 Democratic primary voters say the economy is either not so good or poor."
7:40pm: And what of the GOP? The race is tight in Georgia.
McCain 37%7:43pm: Let's not forget that Bill Clinton used Georgia as his first, post-New Hampshire (Comeback Kid circa 1992) victory to catapult him into the driver's seat in the race for the nomination that year. The state also played a valuable role in his general election campaign in 1992. For the Clintons to lose the state says a lot. Mostly that the state Democratic party is much different today than it was in 1992. Zell Miller led the charge in Georgia for Clinton in 1992. That wing of the party as since moved on leaving a party much more female and much more African American than they were then (simple percentages of the party).
Huckabee 32
Romney 27
7:57pm: Hold on everyone. 8pm is the biggest poll closing of the night. Buckle up; this next hour could get interesting. Two of those bellwethers close in a few minutes (Massachusetts and Missouri).
8:02pm: CNN has called Illinois for Obama and McCain, Oklahoma for Clinton and Connecticut for McCain.
8:14pm: McCain takes New Jersey and Romney counters with a win in home state Massachusetts.
8:17pm: No real surprises so far. McCain is doing well where the polls had him ahead in the last few days, Romney won in his home state and Clinton and Obama are trading victories evenly.
8:34pm: Polls just closed in Arkansas. Favorite son, Mike Huckabee has already been declared the projected winner. No word on their favorite adopted daughter and former First Lady in the state.
8:37pm: Nevermind. That didn't take long. Clinton takes Arkansas and adds Tennessee as well.
8:39pm: This is an interesting series of results. Huckabee really seems to be doing well (early) in the South. He looks to be in good position in the Alabama, Tennessee, Georgia and Arkansas. Meanwhile, it is hard to get a feel for the results on the Democratic side. I can understand "home" state wins for Obama and Clinton. Georgia resembled South Carolina demographically for Obama, and beyond that, there seems to be a break for Obama in the deep South (Georgia and Alabama) while Clinton is doing well in the "border" states (Tennessee and Arkansas). Other areas are more difficult to peg.
8:46pm: Delaware to McCain. Just a few delegates, but the continuation of the trend in his favor tonight.
8:57pm: Here comes 9pm. Another six states close their polls and we learn more about those unsettled states from the previous hour. New Jersey, I'm looking your way.
9:03pm: Alright, I've reclaimed the TV and I'm tuned in to ABC. They just projected New York and Massachusetts for Clinton, Delaware for Obama and Huckabee continues a nice run in the South with a projected win in Alabama. (Results from CNN and they aren't willing to call Massachusetts for Clinton or Alabama for Huckabee.).
9:12pm: Add the AP to the list of news agencies calling Massachusetts for Clinton and Alabama for Huckabee.
9:16pm: Georgia for the GOP continues to be tight.
Huckabee 35%9:18pm: ABC just projected Clinton the winner in New Jersey. So other than Deleware, Clinton is doing well in the Northeast. Connecticut is still up in the air.
McCain 32
Romney 29
9:21pm: ABC News is harping on Huckabee in the South. They showed raw numbers for Oklahoma, Tennessee and Missouri and Huckabee is in great shape in all three. That spells trouble for McCain. The talk on conservative talk radio about McCain being a true conservative may have carried some weight among those Southern conservatives/evangelicals.
9:27pm: Drudge via ABC News (now at commercial break) is projecting Obama the winner in Alabama. Now CNN is following suit.
9:33pm: McCain wins another big one in New York. Ah, the Giuliani factor.
9:39pm: Obama seems to be ahead in all the caucus states that have closed thus far (Kansas, North Dakota, Minnesota and Idaho). So while Clinton has a lead in states (and in delegates), Obama can add some states to the list with wins in these states. And again, these are the red states he's been talking about being able to penetrate in the general election; ones where Clinton wouldn't be able to do as well.
9:46pm: The Caucus talks about the influence of money in the Democratic contest in Massachusetts:
"Money, Money, Money Here’s a hint about Mrs. Clinton’s strong showing in Mass. She way outspent Mr. Obama on television. Per the Campaign Media Analysis Group: She ran 309 spots, costing $65,000, compared with 120 spots by Mr. Obama, who spent $27,000. That spending in Massachusetts is from Jan. 2007 through Feb. 3, 2008."
9:57pm: Over to CBS. They've just called Oklahoma for McCain. That helps stem the Southern tide that Huckabee has built this evening.
10pm: A few more states close (Utah, Colorado, Arizona, North Dakota-R). Now NBC gets into the mix. I'm switching to them now. Maybe Tim Russert will get his dry erase board out. There are delegates to be counted so I'm counting on it. No pun intended.
10:01pm: Romney takes Utah. Well, that didn't take long. No surprise. Mormons like Romney.
10:14pm: Another caucus, another Obama lead. This time in Colorado. Why are his people such good caucusers? Even when he lost in Nevada he still won one more delegate. This is an interesting development.
10:18pm: And to follow up, Obama has been declared the winner of the North Dakota caucuses by CNN.
10:22pm: In case you forgot, California's polls close in about thirty-five minutes.
10:25pm: Obama has broken through again in the Northeast with a win in Connecticut. Chalk up another caucus for him in Kansas as well.
10:31pm: NBC calls Utah for Obama.
10:34pm: Drudge is calling big wins for Huckabee in Georgia, Tennessee and Missouri (and Idaho's caucus for Obama). Unbelievable showing for Huckabee in the South. His campaign has made a real statement in this race. Brian Williams and Russert are talking VP for Huckabee. One other thing on Huckabee: he has run a heck of a campaign, especially financially. Think of the bang for his buck that he has gotten versus say, Mitt Romney.
10:39pm: CNN has called Alabama for Huckabee. Is that in the South?
10:45pm: Obama has overtaken Clinton in the delegate count with this recent string of victories in the heartland.
10:46pm: McCain wins in Arizona. Favorite sons (and daughters) are doing well tonight. While Huckabee is winning some contests, McCain is winning a lot of delegates. He may have some problems with the GOP base but he's got a very healthy delegate lead.
10:50pm: Another caucus for Obama. Minnesota goes for him as well. Need I say more. He has really made strides in the Midwest and in the Prairie and Mountain states. If Huckabee is a threat to McCain because of his strength then Obama similarly affects Clinton in the heartland.
10:53pm: We are on the edge of California officially joining the Super Tuesday party. Polls may close shortly there, but if recent surveys are any indication, then we won't know much in tight races on both sides.
10:59pm: ABC disagrees with the above delegate count. They still have Clinton in the lead.
11:00pm: TV has betrayed me. I'm switching to complete online coverage.
11:05pm: No call in the Show-Me state for the Democrats. Missouri is tight but with 78% of precincts reporting, Clinton maintains a five point edge (51-46). It is even tighter for McCain and Huckabee. Only one point separates McCain from Huckabee there.
11:09pm: NBC has called Georgia for Huckabee now.
11:11pm: California is still too close to call on both sides.
11:12pm: Romney wins in North Dakota. Again, it may not be much, but if he can pull out a win in California, then he'll have a few states to hang his hat on.
11:15pm: Add Minnesota's caucuses to Romney's tally.
11:41pm: Obama has added Idaho's caucuses to his column now. Another caucus.
11:47pm: That pesky 9am class is staring me in the face now. Let the delegate counting begin. I'll be back in the morning to wrap things up. An interesting night so far.
The morning after: California may have been "too close to call" once polls closed there, but Missouri takes the cake as the closest state of the night. The tightness of the races on both sides scared the networks off of calling the state until after midnight--four hours after the polls
had closed there (Georgia's GOP race lasted nearly that long as well.). You can't automatically make the claim that Missouri is the new, close general election state, but file the Show-Me state away until November. The baton may be passed their way from Ohio (in the same way that Ohio claimed the mantle from Florida, circa 2000.).
Here are the results (gotta love the maps):
Democrats
Republicans
Now we can all get out our calculators and begin counting delegates in the same way that electoral votes have been counted in the last two presidential general elections.
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