Invisible Primary: Visible -- Forfeiting New Hampshire?

Thoughts on the invisible primary and links to the goings on of the moment as 2024 approaches...

It is not exactly news that New Hampshire will have the first presidential primary in 2024. The Democratic National Committee (DNC) may have relegated the primary in the Granite state to its customary second position (but behind another primary this time), but every signal from up in that part of New England since December has pointed in one direction: New Hampshire will continue to be first.

Democrats have said it. Republicans have said it. Governors have said it. And most importantly, secretaries of state -- you know, the one who makes the scheduling decision on the presidential primary in New Hampshire -- have said it. 

However, it is also not a mystery that the DNC will not grant a waiver to New Hampshire Democrats to hold anything other than a February 6 contest. Barring a reversal from the state party in the Granite state, then, the DNC is going to levy penalties against the state party during primary season at the very least. It will also assess specific penalties against candidates who campaign in the state.¹ So it is not a surprise that the president will likely take a pass on any rogue New Hampshire primary. Biden would be breaking the rules of the party he leads to file for access to the ballot there. 

But that is not forfeiting the primary. That is the wrong frame for this. And it misses the point anyway. Look, the New Hampshire Democratic Party wants three things whether they say them out loud or not. First, well, they want to be first. But they also, despite the calendar rules snub, want Biden to be the Democratic nominee over the alternatives. There are no viable alternatives, and that is where the party's third want comes in: They do not want to further undermine New Hampshire's leverage for attempts at winning an early calendar waiver in future presidential cycles. 

And what would really undermine the state with national Democrats even further for the future is Marianne Williamson or Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. winning the New Hampshire primary next year. One of those outcomes would destroy any remaining credibility Granite staters have for making discerning decisions on presidential nominations on the Democratic side. And if one thinks New Hampshire Democrats want to go to the table with the DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee in 2026 and make the case that they should have an early contest in 2028 after Williamson or Kennedy won there in 2024, then FHQ does not really know what to say. But one can say that New Hampshire Democrats -- the state party anyway -- do not relish that possibility. 

New Hampshire Democrats are stuck. They have been stuck since December between state law and new national party rules. But it is under-appreciated just how much that rules change has upset the delicate calendar balance for New Hampshire Democrats. To defy the national party means to further hurt New Hampshire's primary primacy. And that is true whether it is the party breaking the national party rules to go early or voters protesting the Biden-driven calendar changes by pulling the lever for a long shot alternative. 

But the press focus should be less on poking at the "there is not a story on the Democratic side, but let's see if we can find one" angle and more on what the New Hampshire Democratic Party is going to do, stuck between national party rules and a Democratic electorate in the Granite state riled up by the president. That is a story worth pursuing because the decisions made there by the state party may make a great deal of difference for 2028 when there will be an active Democratic nomination race. 

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Never Back Down, the super PAC aligned with the nascent DeSantis bid for the Republican presidential nomination rolled out a robust slate of endorsements in Michigan on Thursday. Yes, Trump has run laps around the Florida governor on congressional endorsements from his home state, but 19 members of the Michigan House -- just more than a third of the Republican caucus in the lower chamber -- is nothing to sneeze at. 

The catch is how much value those endorsement ultimately end up carrying. New leadership in the Michigan Republican Party seems to be on the fence about the primary or caucus question for 2024. On the one hand, 19 state legislative endorsements might be a meaningful signal ahead of an early primary in the Great Lakes state (if granted a waiver from the Republican National Committee), but may be less valuable in a caucus setting, especially if participants are limited to state convention delegates already chosen. Unless those legislators are among the delegates or are connected to delegates who are participating, the endorsements may mean very little. 

Yeah, the Michigan situation is a mess. But that primary or caucus distinction matters.

...

In the travel primary, Donald Trump was not the only 2024 presidential candidate in New Hampshire on Thursday. Nikki Haley was there, too, and has another town hall there Friday. Former Vice President Mike Pence will be in Utah today for a roundtable at Utah Valley University. Pence is the second potential candidate to visit Super Tuesday Utah in recent days. The other, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, wraps up his trade mission abroad in London. Vivek Ramaswamy continues his bus tour of South Carolina.

...

Over at FHQ Plus...

• Wyoming Democrats have a date for their 2024 caucuses (or is that party-run primary?) and Rhode Island appears to be on a fast track to a new presidential primary date next year. All the details at FHQ Plus.

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...

On this date...

...in 1992, Both President George H.W. Bush and Arkansas Governor Bill Clinton were dominant in wins in the Pennsylvania primary. But The New York Times account had this aside: "Still, the voting in Pennsylvania only underscored the new phase of the campaign, in which Mr. Clinton and Mr. Bush begin to take each other's measure -- while keeping a wary eye on Ross Perot, the Texas businessman considering an independent campaign for the Presidency."

...in 2020, it was to have been the date of the Acela primary -- presidential primaries in Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, New York, Pennsylvania and Rhode Island -- but covid forced all six states to shift to later dates. In the end, only Ohio was active, concluding the vote-by-mail in the Buckeye state's presidential primary on this date.

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¹ This was incorrect in the NBC News piece: "The rules apply to Williamson and Kennedy as well, but they've indicated they're willing to accept the DNC's unspecified penalties for rule violations since they're running anti-establishment campaigns anyway."

Rule 21.C.1.b covers that. "A presidential candidate who campaigns in a state where the State Party is in violation of the timing provisions of these rules, or where a primary or caucus is set by a state’s government on a date that violates the timing provisions of these rules, shall not receive pledged delegates or delegate votes from that state." What is unspecified is that the DNC chair can go beyond that penalty if rules are broken and keep candidates out of primary debates, for example. But there are not going to be any Democratic primary debates for the 2024 cycle.

--

Recent posts:

Invisible Primary: Visible -- Trump's Inevitability?

Invisible Primary: Visible -- Hutchinson's Turn to (Officially) Jump in

Invisible Primary: Visible -- Biden's In

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Invisible Primary: Visible -- Trump's Inevitability?

Thoughts on the invisible primary and links to the goings on of the moment as 2024 approaches...

The invisible primary buzzword of the last 24 hours or so (if not longer) has been inevitability. As in, the impression is forming that Trump is looking like the inevitable Republican presidential nominee in 2024. It pops up in The Washington Post. And there it is in Politico as well. If one is in Trump World's orbit, then that is likely the impression they want. 

The slow yet methodical drip, drip, drip of endorsements over the course of the last few weeks may have been engineered to serve as a symbol of Florida Governor Ron DeSantis's flagging support, but during the same span of time, his poll numbers began to dip and the former president's rise. It has been a well-played move by the 45th president's team before DeSantis even formally enters the race. And with no one else even threatening to break into double digit support as the invisible primary marches on, that certainly buoys the notion of Trump as inevitable. 

But is he? 

The first thing to note here is that there just is not a long and deep history of losing presidents coming back to run again. Not in the post-reform era anyway. And honestly, that trend stretches back much further into the 20th century than that. But FHQ raises that fact to suggest that as far as inevitability goes, a former president, in the abstract, would be well-positioned (if not best-positioned) to be granted inevitability status. And that has been the case for Trump. That has not changed. 

What has changed is that the attacks on DeSantis have put the governor on the defensive and he has not exactly answered the call (yet). Those attacks have worked. Additionally, Trump has been indicted. And those charges against the former president in court in Manhattan have done what threats to Trump did during his presidency (and post-presidency): they have rallied Republican support (in the near term).  

So, as long as endorsements keep coming in for Trump and his poll numbers continue to rise, there will be fuel to stoke the fires of inevitability chatter. And that may be enough. That perception may be enough stunt the growth of and effectively end any challenge to Trump for the nomination even before one vote is cast. That is definitely what Team Trump wants. But it is still relatively early -- even if it can get late early in the invisible primary -- and best-positioned though Trump may be at this time, the one thing the former president continues to invite is uncertainty. 

We may be getting a clearer picture of how a former president may do if he or she were to run for renomination for the first time in quite some time, but Trump is unique because of all the baggage he brings. He is polarizing for starters, but he also has additional potential criminal charges looming over him. He may be or become inevitable, but that uncertainty will continue to animate support for alternatives in the Republican nomination process. Voters and donors will look around now and into the future, and possible candidates will in the near term entertain if not act on their ambitions to challenge the former president. 

And those two forces -- inevitability and uncertainty -- will continue to collide over the next month or two as the field of candidates solidifies. Both bear watching.

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Number of the day: 62. FHQ is often quick to dismiss polls at this stage of the invisible primary. That does not mean I do not look at them. It means I do not put too much stock into them at this point. Still, sometimes those surveys catch my eye. Take the recent Emerson poll of the Republican primary race and the Fox News poll of the Democratic presidential field. In the former, Trump is at 62 percent. And in the latter, Biden sits at 62 percent. Those numbers from individual polls do not necessarily mean anything, but folks will talk about those two 62s very differently. Trump's 62 suggests, well, inevitability while Biden's 62, some would argue, shows weakness. 

...

Nevertheless, he persisted. Trump may be inevitable, but there has not been any reporting to suggest that DeSantis is second-guessing a bid for the Republican nomination. In fact, with the Florida legislature set to wrap up its work early next month, that sets up the governor in the Sunshine state to throw his hat in the ring in the not-too-distant future. NBC is reporting that DeSantis will waste little time and announce an exploratory committee soon after the legislature adjourns. 

Additionally, The Guardian discusses the staff assembling in Tallahassee for an actual (not super PAC-run shadow) DeSantis campaign.

...

Over at FHQ Plus...

• Those presidential primaries or primary moves in Hawaii, Missouri and Ohio? Well, the week has not been kind to any of the efforts across that trio of states. All the details at FHQ Plus.

If you haven't checked out FHQ Plus yet, then what are you waiting for? Subscribe below for free and consider a paid subscription to support FHQ's work.

...

On this date...

...in 1976, former Georgia Governor Jimmy Carter (D) and President Gerald Ford (R) won their respective primaries in Pennsylvania. North Dakota Democrats caucused and Pennsylvania Governor Milton Schapp (D) withdrew from the Democratic presidential nomination race.

...in 1992, Republicans in Utah held caucuses.

...in 2004, Massachusetts Senator John Kerry (D) took the Pennsylvania primary.

...in 2016, Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX), trailing Donald Trump in the delegate count for the Republican nomination, named former candidate Carly Fiorina his running mate on a short-lived ticket that did not fundamentally alter the race heading into the Indiana primary the following week.

--

Recent posts:

Invisible Primary: Visible -- Hutchinson's Turn to (Officially) Jump in

Invisible Primary: Visible -- Biden's In

Invisible Primary: Visible -- For 2024, a Frankenstein's monster of 2015 parts 

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See more on our political/electoral consulting venture at FHQ Strategies. 

Invisible Primary: Visible -- Biden's In

Thoughts on the invisible primary and links to the goings on of the moment as 2024 approaches...

President Biden formally joined the 2024 race for the White House in a video released early Tuesday morning, April 25. It is a bid for renomination that will not go unchallenged, but is more likely than not to move ahead despite some reservations within the rank and file of the party. The polling numbers are not great, but whether this announcement and resultant campaigning in the near term begins to consolidate Democratic support ahead of 2024 remains to be seen. However, that coupled with the fact that no serious challengers are lurking in the wings, champing at the bit to attempt to push Biden to the periphery, would have the effect of exhausting any pining for an alternative if not quell some of the dissension in the ranks.

Still, this is a reelection effort that faces some unique challenges. Questions about the president's age are not going to go anywhere, again, the approval numbers are not the best and the economy has been resilient, but is on less than rock-solid footing. Those are the things that will matter as 2023 wears on and gives way to 2024. 

On the staff primary side, Reuters has a nice look at the team that is and might be around the president as the reelection effort gets off the ground.

Fox News wonders why there will not be any Democratic presidential primary debates. [Two things: 1) FHQ is hard-pressed to remember the last time an incumbent president's party had primary debates. 2) The Reuters piece above mentioned Ron Klain doing (general election) debate prep and that only made FHQ wonder about whether there will be general election debates.]

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Seth Masket was in Iowa for the Faith and Freedom Coalition gathering this past weekend. He has some thoughts on the event up at Tusk.

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In the endorsement primary, Trump started the week with a couple of significant gets. Failed New York gubernatorial candidate and former congressman Lee Zeldin lined up behind the former president and Montana Senator -- and 2024 NRSC chair -- Steve Daines also threw his support behind Trump. The contrast is stark as the Trump campaign continues this drip, drip, drip of endorsement announcements while the competition, well, is not following suit. Not to the same degree or at the same level anyway.

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Maybe, maybe not. The Washington Examiner looks at the money primary and the fundraising behind the prospective DeSantis presidential run, but The New York Times has two of the big spenders mentioned -- Ken Griffin and Robert Bigelow -- surveying the field amidst this recent DeSantis swoon. 

...

Over at FHQ Plus...

• It was a wild kickoff to the work week. One state has a new primary date and another saw its effort to resurrect its now-defunct presidential primary suffer a setback. All at FHQ Plus.

If you haven't checked out FHQ Plus yet, then what are you waiting for? Subscribe below for free and consider a paid subscription to support FHQ's work.

...

On this date...

...in 1972, the results in the Massachusetts and Pennsylvania primaries were split in the Democratic nomination race. South Dakota Sen. George McGovern won in the Bay state while former Vice President and 1968 nominee Hubert Humphrey took the most delegates in the Keystone state.

...in 1984, Democrats caucused in Utah. 

...in 1988, four years later Utah Democrats were at it again. Massachusetts Governor Michael Dukakis won in the Beehive state going away. 

...in 2019, former Vice President Joe Biden announced his intentions to seek the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination.

--

Recent posts:

Invisible Primary: Visible -- For 2024, a Frankenstein's monster of 2015 parts 

Sunday Series: Ranked Choice Voting in 2024 Presidential Primaries, Updated (April 2023)

From FHQ Plus: Calendar Foreshadowing in New York

Follow FHQ on Twitter, Instagram, Facebook, Mastodon and Post or subscribe by Email.

See more on our political/electoral consulting venture at FHQ Strategies. 

Invisible Primary: Visible -- For 2024, a Frankenstein's monster of 2015 parts

Thoughts on the invisible primary and links to the goings on of the moment as 2024 approaches...

It was not that long ago that some were over-reading Florida Governor Ron DeSantis' travel as potentially indicative of his approach to the early states on the 2024 presidential primary calendar. And while FHQ is often quick to preach actions, not words in the invisible primary, that long haul plan of DeSantis and his aligned super PAC, Never Back Down, is perhaps more nuanced than simply where the governor is going. [He is abroad this week, for example.]

Despite some anxiety among his supporters, DeSantis and those aligned with his nascent presidential run seem to be playing a slow and methodical long game. In a week last week when the news was bad and the polling continued to take a turn for the worse, DeSantis and Never Back Down plodded along. The governor was in first-in-the-South South Carolina and Super Tuesday Utah addressing the state convention of Beehive state Republicans while Never Back Down was making hires several layers deep for operations in all four early states. The latter, in an evolution over the super PAC apparatus the (Jeb!) Bush effort built in 2015, appears to be assembling a full shadow campaign with all the cash it has at its disposal. 

And that is an interesting amalgam at this point in the race. It seems a bit of an attempt at a better Frankenstein's monster in 2023, taking elements of the Bush super PAC build out in 2015 and melding it with the deep organizing -- staff, grassroots and delegate efforts -- of the Cruz campaign. Neither were particularly successful against Trump separately in 2015-16, but fused in some respects in 2023, it may prove different. Regardless, the evolution continues to hint at the learning that has happened for the 2024 cycle among those who opposed Trump during the competitive 2016 Republican nomination race. 

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Eyes were on Iowa this past weekend as Republican candidates, announced and prospective, addressed the Iowa Faith and Freedom Coalition. Political scientist, Steffen Schmidt, gives a reminder about why Iowa commands attention. 

...

Patrick Svitek has a thorough rundown of the state of the Republican presidential nomination race in Texas over at the Texas Tribune. The Lone Star state may be getting more competitive by some measures, but there are a lot of Republicans to go around to support national races. In the endorsement primary, some elected and former elected officials in the state lined up behind former President Trump ahead of his rally in Waco. 

Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick, who chaired both of Trump’s previous campaigns in Texas, has been preoccupied with the legislative session but continues to have the former president’s ear. Speaking at Trump’s March rally in Waco, Patrick blasted those who tied the event to the deadly Branch Davidian standoff in 1993, saying Trump was following his recommendation to hold the rally there.

In the week before the rally, as speculation grew that Trump was facing indictment, his campaign made a push to corral more endorsements from Texas Republicans in the U.S. House. U.S. Rep. Ronny Jackson of Amarillo, who was Trump’s doctor in the White House, took the lead inside the delegation, according to a person close to him.

The effort paid dividends as his campaign prefaced the Waco rally by announcing its “Texas Leadership Team” featuring eight new congressional endorsers. Fresh supporters also included Land Commissioner Dawn Buckingham and former U.S. Rep. Mayra Flores of Los Indios.

However, many are still sitting on the sidelines. And big donors in Texas have not shied away from Florida Governor Ron DeSantis.

As the political world waits for his official presidential campaign launch, DeSantis has cultivated some intriguing — and generous — donors from Texas. Two of last month’s top contributors to his Florida political committee were both from Texas: an entity called Rural Route 3 Holdings LP, which gave $1 million, and a Houston doctor named Clive Fields, who gave $500,000.

Rural Route 3 Holdings also contributed $250,000 to DeSantis last year.

There are not just a lot of potential endorsements and donors in Texas. The Super Tuesday primary there offers a significant chunk of delegates that will keep it at the forefront of the campaign as the invisible primary continues. 

...

Over at FHQ Plus...

• Kansas has a new (one-off) presidential primary for 2024 and the Rhode Island primary may be on the move. The week ahead starts with maneuvering on the potential Hawaii presidential primary and the zombie movement to move the Ohio primary from March to May, well, will not die.

If you haven't checked out FHQ Plus yet, then what are you waiting for? Subscribe below for free and consider a paid subscription to support FHQ's work.

...

On this date...

...in 1976, Rep. Mo Udall (D-AZ) won the Democratic caucuses in his home state of Arizona.

...in 1980, Illinois Rep. John Anderson (R) withdrew from the Republican presidential nomination race (...but he would return for the fall campaign as an independent candidate).

...in 1984, Sen. Gary Hart (D-CO) completed the sweep of 1984 Vermont contests, winning the beauty contest primary in March and taking the caucuses in the Green Mountain state on this date that April.

...in 2004, Sen. John Kerry (D-MA) won the caucuses in the territory of Guam.

...in 2012, former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney (R) swept the five ACELA primary states (Connecticut, Delaware, New York, Pennsylvania and Rhode Island) to pad his delegate total against only nominal competition at that point in the race. 

--

Recent posts:

Sunday Series: Ranked Choice Voting in 2024 Presidential Primaries, Updated (April 2023)

From FHQ Plus: Calendar Foreshadowing in New York

Invisible Primary: Visible -- How the Republican Candidates Line Up in South Carolina

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See more on our political/electoral consulting venture at FHQ Strategies. 

Invisible Primary: Visible -- How the Republican Candidates Line Up in South Carolina

Thoughts on the invisible primary and links to the goings on of the moment as 2024 approaches...

The 2024 primary calendar is not set yet. But if it goes according to plan on the Republican side, then Iowa Republicans will hold caucuses followed by the presidential primary in New Hampshire. South Carolina would come next, and it is the delegate prize of the early calendar. The Palmetto state not only offers the most delegates of any of the first four states, but also allocates them in a winner-take-most manner that promises the statewide victor a decent chance of sweeping the delegates with just a bit more than a 40 percent plurality. 

And that is important because a couple of recent polls of South Carolina Republicans show former President Donald Trump pulling in just north of 40 percent support. Now sure, the primary date is not even established in South Carolina, so it is definitely still early. Read into those numbers what one wants at this point, approximately nine months out from the Palmetto state primary. But Trump holds the pole position at the moment and how the candidates line up behind him matters. 

As in the majority of the current national polls of the Republican race, Ron DeSantis now is a clear second option to the 45th president in South Carolina. Behind the Florida governor are a pair of South Carolinians who are vying for the nomination as well. Depending on the poll, former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley and Senator Tim Scott together account for anywhere from a quarter to a third of the support there. And where that support goes should either or both falter in Iowa or New Hampshire (if not the invisible primary) is consequential. As the National Public Affairs survey demonstrates, Haley and Scott are one and the same for all intents and purposes. Should Haley withdraw, then Scott would be the odds on favorite to take her support. The same is true if it was Scott dropping out. Haley would gain. 

But if both are forced out of the race, then DeSantis is the more likely beneficiary. Some of that homegrown support for Haley and/or Scott may filter out to other candidates or even stay with the favorite son/daughter if one or both remain(s) on the ballot. But if the bulk of that Haley/Scott support shifted to DeSantis, then it could be enough to vault the Florida governor over Trump statewide. 

At this juncture, it is obviously premature to speculate to that degree. But the jockeying in South Carolina matters because it is likely to give the winner of the primary a fairly significant net delegate advantage heading into the Nevada contest and beyond. That is no small thing.

The real take home from all of this is that Haley and Scott have some hard work ahead of them in potentially creating some daylight between each other back home. An early win before South Carolina, either outright or relative to expectations, may do that. But getting to that point is the real trick. That is where the hard work is.

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Half of Democratic voters in key early primary state don’t want Biden to run for re-election: poll. 

The key state? New Hampshire. 

One has to read all the way into the seventh paragraph before it is mentioned that Biden may not even be on the ballot in the Granite state if New Hampshire Democrats choose to go rogue, opting into a primary that is likely to be set by the secretary of state for some time in January 2024. 

What this poll really indicates is that a relatively unpopular president is even more unpopular in a state where being first-in-the-nation in the presidential primary process is matter of state identity if not right (in the eyes of some New Hampshirites). Moving South Carolina up was no boon to Biden in New Hampshire. Where all of them might matter more is the general election rather than the primary phase.

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Entry points. Larry Elder is in, and so is Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. as of Wednesday, April 19. Miami Mayor Francis Suarez is close to a decision on entering the Republican presidential nomination race as well. Oh, and President Biden appears to be nearing a decision himself. 

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In the endorsement primary, Trump continues to amass Florida congressional delegation support, picking up three more endorsements from Reps. Bilirakis, Buchanan and Waltz. The former president's campaign is not just doing this in Florida. He also claims the two biggest endorsements in South Carolina from Senator Lindsay Graham and Governor Henry McMaster. It is becoming clearer that the Trump campaign values these opponent-homestate endorsements as effective counters to candidates and would-be candidates running against him for the Republican nomination. 

...

Over at FHQ Plus...

• Hawaii is still trying to create a presidential primary, Idaho is dealing with suddenly not having one and Missouri continues to attempt to bring theirs back. All at FHQ Plus.

If you haven't checked out FHQ Plus yet, then what are you waiting for? Subscribe below for free and consider a paid subscription to support FHQ's work.

...

On this date...

...in 1983, Senator John Glenn (D-OH) announced his campaign for the 1984 Democratic presidential nomination.

...in 1988, Tennessee Senator Al Gore (D) withdrew from the race for the Democratic presidential nomination.

...in 1999, Gary Bauer entered the 2000 Republican presidential nomination race.

--

Recent posts:

Invisible Primary: Visible -- DeSantis Wilts in the Glare of the National Spotlight

Invisible Primary: Visible -- Chris Christie's Decision

Invisible Primary: Visible -- The Professionalization of Trump's Campaign

Follow FHQ on Twitter, Instagram, Facebook, Mastodon and Post or subscribe by Email.

See more on our political/electoral consulting venture at FHQ Strategies. 

Invisible Primary: Visible -- DeSantis Wilts in the Glare of the National Spotlight

Thoughts on the invisible primary and links to the goings on of the moment as 2024 approaches...

It has been nearly a month since FHQ declared in Invisible Primary: Visible that national scrutiny had arrived for Florida Governor Ron DeSantis. And even then, that declaration may have been behind the curve. Regardless, things have not really turned around for DeSantis in the short term and the spotlight has not gotten any less bright. Whispered discontent has only grown louder. From donors. From potential voters. From folks in his backyard who otherwise might be inclined to endorse the governor. Opponents, announced and not, have also taken notice and taken (repeated) shots.

It has not been a good month.

And that is especially true for a potential candidate who is not yet even in the race for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination. His travel schedule may betray that notion, but the governor is not an official candidate for president. It is still early, but as FHQ has said, borrowing from Yogi Berra, it gets late early out there. 

Still, even with Donald Trump scooping up Florida endorsements seemingly left and right in the last several days and weeks, there is one thought that has stuck in FHQ's mind. Yes, a quarter of the Florida Republican delegation to congress may already be in Trump's corner, but what about all those state legislators who are working hand-in-hand with DeSantis this 2023 session to deliver a conservative agenda to serve as a policy blueprint for the governor's likely presidential run? If that working relationship runs deep, then that is a potential wellspring of support, if not manpower, to fuel a campaign ahead of the primary in the Sunshine state next March. 

Only now, even those state legislators are voicing frustrations with the governor. And that is a potentially troubling sign for DeSantis. There may not be as high a premium on those endorsements in 2023 as there was in 2015 when the Republican presidential nomination race was more wide open and national figures mostly stayed on the sidelines, not endorsing. However, state legislators carry their own worth in this process. That is truer of home state legislators. These are the folks who work most closely with the governor to pass an agenda on which they are presumably in lockstep. But if those same state legislators cannot or will not vouch for or vociferously back the governor and what he has expended his political capital on, then that also says something. And it would not be the best of invisible primary signals.

No, that does not mean that folks in the Florida legislature will not ultimately endorse DeSantis. But that that is even a topic of conversation says a lot about the current state of affairs for Team DeSantis. There will be pressure to roll out a lot of endorsements from these very types of officials on day one when the governor does announce. He will need something of a counterweight to the damage Trump has already done in pulling in Florida endorsements so far.

...

FHQ spoke some earlier this week about the Trump campaign's professionalization through the lens of these congressional endorsements from the Florida delegation. Rolling Stone adds a bit of color to that:

By this past weekend, Trump’s inner circle was convinced they had a number of new Florida lawmakers ready to announce their support. Previously, the idea was to release the endorsements at once, likely Thursday or Friday of this week. However, by the weekend, plans had changed: It was decided that the Trump campaign would drip them out at different points in the coming days — including on Tuesday when DeSantis would be on the ground in Washington, D.C., trying to lock down his own endorsements from the Florida delegation. The ploy was part of a deliberate effort to, in the words of one of the sources familiar with the matter, “embarrass and mindf*ck DeSantis” as much as possible, via a steady drip.

...

Meanwhile, DeSantis did make his way into the first-in-the-South Palmetto state on Wednesday, a trip with events organized by And to the Republic, a DeSantis-aligned 501(c)(4) nonprofit group. Never Back Down, the super PAC affiliated with the Florida governor, bracketed the visit with ads placed on local news during the 6pm hour on both Tuesday and Wednesday, the latter of which was just before DeSantis was set to speak in Spartanburg in the Upstate. 

...

Over at FHQ Plus...

• Connecticut Democrats' delegate selection plan says something about presidential primary legislation in the Nutmeg state, Idaho is still in a pickle over its own presidential primary and the push to change the Ohio primary date won't die. All at FHQ Plus.

If you haven't checked out FHQ Plus yet, then what are you waiting for? Subscribe below for free and consider a paid subscription to support FHQ's work.

...

On this date...

...in 1976, Democrats in Missouri caucused and although Jimmy Carter got the most votes, caucus-goers followed state leaders' advice to send an uncommitted slate of delegates to the national convention.

--

Recent posts:

Invisible Primary: Visible -- Chris Christie's Decision

Invisible Primary: Visible -- The Professionalization of Trump's Campaign

Invisible Primary: Visible -- The Winnowing of the Republican Field

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See more on our political/electoral consulting venture at FHQ Strategies. 

Invisible Primary: Visible -- Chris Christie's Decision

Thoughts on the invisible primary and links to the goings on of the moment as 2024 approaches...

No, not that decision.

Former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie is doing the sorts of things that prospective presidential candidates do. First of all, he is openly talking about the prospect. He additionally says that a decision on a 2024 White House bid is coming in the next couple of weeks. And he has been to New Hampshire within the last month as well.

Christie has also shown a willingness to take on both former President Donald Trump and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, the two candidates, or would-be candidates, who capture the biggest share of support of any two potential nominees in polling on the 2024 Republican presidential nomination race. So, many signs to this point in the invisible primary seem to be suggesting that Christie is working on the contours of what a run would look and sound like and whether there is sufficient support for such an endeavor. But "sufficient" may be in the eye of the beholder because Christie is not really registering in primary polling and the financial backing he may be able to muster for a candidacy may be less sincere about Christie being a viable alternative to Trump and/or DeSantis and more about his ability to take it to one or both of them. Of course, that is the path a lot of the candidates not named Trump or DeSantis envision right now. As FHQ said on Monday, the hope is...

That the indictments get Trump. That DeSantis implodes. That the two candidates currently atop the polls of the 2024 Republican presidential nomination race so drag each other through the mud that voters start to flock to another viable alternative on down the line.

However, what Christie says about Trump or DeSantis now, before throwing his hat in the ring, is one thing. What he does once in the race (if he enters) is another. And that is the decision FHQ is hinting at in the lede. Here is the thing: When one reads a headline like this one from Maggie Haberman's piece in the New York Times, it has the potential to conjure up certain memories about Christie. 

"Chris Christie, Eyeing ’24 Run, Takes Shots at DeSantis."

Honestly, FHQ's first thought was that "tak[ing] shots at DeSantis" is a lot like taking shots at another challenger to Trump but in the 2016 cycle, Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL). After all, aside from not winning the 2016 Republican nomination, Christie is best known for kneecapping Rubio in the lead up to the 2016 New Hampshire primary. He punched laterally rather than up and at Trump, who was coming off a runner-up finish in Iowa the week before. 

And that raises questions about Christie in 2024. Does he continue to go after Trump and DeSantis? Can he do so in high-profile settings like debates when the lights are on and more people are watching or merely on the hustings across the Granite state? Or perhaps more importantly, can Christie effectively go after both? Trump will be ready with a response. DeSantis may not (or may not have an effective one). 

And that strikes FHQ as the biggest strategic decision for Christie 2024: keep taking shots at whomever when they present themselves or train his sights on Trump, aiming to topple the frontrunner unlike in 2016.

...

Trump may, in fact, be in trouble in Iowa, but the social scientist in me still pushes back against the sort of "the people who are talking to the people I have spoken with in Iowa say..." account that Mike Murphy had up at The Bulwark yesterday. The jury still seems to be out on where the former president stands in the Hawkeye state. For every "evangelicals have turned against Trump" story there seems to be an attendant "evangelicals are sticking with Trump" piece. And although there is a clear "Trump protection" angle to the new bill in Iowa to set up a 70 day registration buffer before the caucuses (because the sponsor is an adviser to the Trump campaign in Iowa), there is genuine concern out there among Republicans -- in and out of Iowa -- about Democrats participating in Republican contests in 2024. FHQ has heard it expressed in at least Idaho and Michigan already in 2023. 

On both fronts -- coalition support and state-level rules -- it comes back to the question FHQ continues to ask in this space: Is Trump 2023 closer to Trump 2015 or Trump 2019? Trump can maybe survive without evangelicals in Iowa. He did in 2016. The bigger question may be if folks who identify as evangelical come over to him (or not) as primary season progresses. And on the rules, Trump is vastly ahead of where he was in 2015. Behind 2019's pace, sure, but ahead of 2015. That continues to be an area to watch as the invisible primary advances. 

...

In the endorsement primary, DeSantis went to Washington on Tuesday. Then Trump ended up with two more congressional endorsements and another one of those was from the Florida delegation. DeSantis did not leave empty-handed. Congresswoman Laurel Lee (R-FL) became the first member of the congressional delegation from the Sunshine state to throw her support behind the governor. FiveThirtyEight has more on why these endorsements matter for Trump.

...

Over at FHQ Plus...

• There was a shake up to the bill that would reestablish a presidential primary bill in Missouri, some  calendar foreshadowing from New York Democrats and an overdue thought on South Carolina as the first Democratic contest in 2024 now that their draft delegate selection plan is out. All at FHQ Plus.

If you haven't checked out FHQ Plus yet, then what are you waiting for? Subscribe below for free and consider a paid subscription to support FHQ's work.

...

On this date...

...in 1980, North Dakota Democrats caucused.

...in 1988, Jesse Jackson won the Vermont caucuses, edging out eventual nominee Michael Dukakis who had won the early March beauty contest primary in the Green Mountain state. But Dukakis took the big prize of the day, winning the New York primary. George H.W. Bush won the Republican primary in the Empire State unopposed.

...in 1995, Indiana Senator Richard Lugar (R) entered the race for the 1996 Republican presidential nomination.

...in 2016, Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump won the New York primary in their respective parties, both padding leads in the delegate count on the way to the nominations.

--

Recent posts:

Invisible Primary: Visible -- The Professionalization of Trump's Campaign

Invisible Primary: Visible -- The Winnowing of the Republican Field

Sunday Series: Checking in on Biden and the 2024 Democratic Invisible Primary

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See more on our political/electoral consulting venture at FHQ Strategies. 

Invisible Primary: Visible -- Friday Quick Hits

Thoughts on the invisible primary and links to the goings on of the moment as 2024 approaches...

The Iowa bill that would restrict how parties could conduct presidential caucuses advanced out of a House committee a party line vote on Thursday, April 13. But Democrats are already hinting at defending their plans through legal challenges (while stressing that the state party is still working on a delegate selection plan for 2024). 

DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee member from Iowa Scott Brennan had this to say:

“It’s a solution in search of a problem. I don’t understand it. It makes no sense. We have decades of history where the two parties came together and talked about issues important to Iowans in our (Caucus) process. Nothing this time.”

[As an aside, Democrats are attempting to present some uncertainty here, calling the legislation premature. Honestly, the state party can attempt to delay/create uncertainty in this instance because the Iowa Democratic Party delegate selection plan, no matter what ultimately makes it into the draft, will go back and forth between the state party and the DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee before it is finalized (perhaps well into the summer if not beyond).]

...

Idaho Republican Party Chair Dorothy Moon did not pull any punches in a recent local op-ed concerning the presidential nomination process in the Gem state for 2024. 

"This past legislative session, Secretary of State Phil McGrane brought forward House Bill 138 — a bill that would remove the Republican Party’s March presidential primary. The bill passed out of the Legislature and was signed into law by Gov. Brad Little.

"McGrane and his backers say an error and omission in the legislative language unwittingly removed the presidential primary; their goal was to move the primary to May. But because of sloppy drafting, Idaho is now without a “legal mechanism for political parties to request a presidential primary election,” as McGrane recently put it.

"In essence, McGrane’s goof makes an Idaho GOP presidential nominating contest that much more difficult for the people. Where does that leave us? The Idaho GOP is evaluating all legal avenues and working to determine how to safeguard the early March nominating process that has already brought significant benefits to Idaho."

She is not wrong. The "goof" was clear from the start. Now Idaho has no presidential primary (without a legislative fix). In the meantime, state Republicans can go a different route. And the state party seems to be exploring its options. But Moon has apparently backed off her proposal to hold (noncompliant) February caucuses. The emphasis appears now to be on keeping the process, whether primary or caucus, in March.

...

Never Back Down, the super PAC affiliated with the nascent Ron DeSantis bid for the Republican presidential nomination has made its first ad buy, set to roll out nationally on Monday, April 17.

...

Wyoming Republicans convene in Jackson this weekend and will have an election for chair amid an internal party squabble that may have been the story of the 2023 legislative session in the Equality state. FHQ raises this not because of the fight, but rather because these are typically the settings where decisions are made on rules for the coming presidential nomination process. That may or may not be in the offing this weekend in Wyoming, but it is worth flagging nonetheless whether the party battle affects the rules or not. 

...

Over at FHQ Plus...

• Michigan Republicans still do not seem to realize what they are up against in opting into a non-compliant presidential primary or going the alternate caucus route. 

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...

On this date...

...in 1984, Democrats held caucuses in Arizona.

...in 1992, Republicans caucused in Missouri. 

...in 1999, former Vice President Dan Quayle (R) announced a run for the 2000 Republican presidential nomination. Quayle as a classic "running for 2000, but did not run in 2000" candidate. He later withdrew in September 1999.

...in 2012, President Barack Obama swept a series of western Democratic caucuses in Idaho, Kansas, Nebraska and Wyoming. This cluster was the among the first to get the regional bonus delegates for clustering contests together on the same date.

...in 2019, Pete Buttigieg announced his intentions to seek the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination (after having formed an exploratory committee in January).

--

Recent posts:

Invisible Primary: Visible -- Primary Creep in Iowa and "Similar Elections"

Invisible Primary: Visible -- An Iowa Acknowledgement

Invisible Primary: Visible -- Nikki Haley Tips Her Hand

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See more on our political/electoral consulting venture at FHQ Strategies. 

Invisible Primary: Visible -- Three Tales of Would-Be 2024 Republican Candidates

Thoughts on the invisible primary and links to the goings on of the moment as 2024 approaches...

Paul Steinhauser writing at Fox News updates the situation with Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC):

"'This next week will provide clarity to how he’s thinking about 2024,' a Republican operative in Scott’s political orbit, who asked to remain anonymous to speak more freely, told Fox News."

Scott's itinerary over the coming week? 

April 12 in Iowa, April 13 in New Hampshire and April 14-15 in South Carolina. There just are not that many lines to read between here. A four day swing through the first three contests of the Republican presidential nomination process during an Easter recess says a lot about Scott's intentions. But then again, the travel primary is not the only area where Scott has been doing the sorts of things that aspiring presidential candidates do. 

...

Speaking of trips to South Carolina, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis (R) has been coaxed into visiting the Palmetto state early next week by backer and state Sen. Josh Kimbrell. It will be the governor's first trek to the home of the first-in-the-South presidential primary. One visit will be unlikely to cool the DeSantis-is-skipping-the-early-states narrative much, but as the most delegate-rich state among the first four on the calendar and the only one that allocates delegates in a winner-take-most fashion before March, South Carolina is a valuable piece of the delegate puzzle, whether part of a "long-haul strategy" or not.

...

USA Today's Francesca Chambers profiled New Hampshire Governor Chris Sununu (R), another potential candidate who has garnered some 2024 buzz. 

“'I don't believe in getting on stage to blow people up,' Sununu said. 'But if getting on the stage can help me direct the conversation back to those Republican fundamentals that we can all agree on, and I can get a lot of people excited, well, then there's value in doing that.' 

"Sununu said his mission after the midterm elections was, initially, to help the GOP become more likable and develop a better message. Election losses in 2022 demonstrated a need for the party to field strong candidates who appeal to independents and younger voters, he said."

There has been a considerable amount of the talk about 2024 resembling 2016, but much of it has applied to candidate strategy to winnow the field in order to take Trump down. A lot of that has missed the mark, failing to adequately account for the differences between 2015 and now. But here, Sununu sounds an awful lot like another candidate who ran in 2016, John Kasich. Affable guy focused on the issues is a strategy, but it is one that did not work in 2016 and does not, at least not at this time anyway, seem to have much of a home in the politics of the Republican Party. Again, that may change, but it does not seem to offer a viable path to the nomination. 

And unlike Kasich in 2016, Sununu may not have a path through his home state. New Hampshire certainly offers fewer delegates (and none that are allocated winner-take-all as in Ohio).

...

Over at FHQ Plus...

• Democratic draft delegate selection plans continue to be released and they continue to reveal elements of the 2024 process to come. Yes, that affects the Democratic process, but when it comes to hints about the timing of state-run primaries, that affects Republicans as well. 

If you haven't checked out FHQ Plus yet, then what are you waiting for? Subscribe below.

...

On this date...

...in 1984, Walter Mondale (D) took a sizable plurality win in the Pennsylvania primary, but he would only eclipse that total in two additional states (of five more wins) down the stretch. 

...in 2012, former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum (R) suspended his campaign for the Republican nomination, effectively sealing an overall win for Mitt Romney.

...in 2020, Joe Biden (D) won in Alaska as Democrats in the Last Frontier completed their vote-by-mail party-run primary in the thick of a pandemic-affected primary season. 

--

Recent posts:

Sunday Series: Iowa and New Hampshire Are Super Unlikely to Hold February Contests. Here is why.

From FHQ Plus: Drama Introduced into Effort to Move Idaho Presidential Primary

Invisible Primary: Visible -- The Long-Haul Strategy of Team DeSantis

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See more on our political/electoral consulting venture at FHQ Strategies. 

Invisible Primary: Visible -- The Long-Haul Strategy of Team DeSantis

Thoughts on the invisible primary and links to the goings on of the moment as 2024 approaches...

Henry Gomez and Matt Dixon over at NBC had a nice look at the emerging delegate strategy of the budding DeSantis campaign. A few reactions...

1. Before I even clicked on the link, my first thought was, "Yeah, Jeff Roe was brought onto the staff at the super PAC and Ken Cuccinelli is running the show over there. This will be a delegate strategy story." It was. Both were involved in the Cruz delegate operation in 2016. Put a pin in that.
2. Folks linking to this piece keep interpreting it as a "skipping" story. As in, this DeSantis strategy entails skipping Iowa, New Hampshire and the other early states. I did not read it that way. This strikes me as a strategy not unlike that of the former president's. It is a strategy built on the notion that the 2024 Republican presidential nomination race could go on for a while next year. Donald Trump is well-positioned to go the distance. And Ron DeSantis is demonstrating that he at least potentially has the resources, financial and otherwise, to do the same. This behavior is less about skipping those early states than thinking about the full primary calendar. Look, a lot of the 2016 Republican candidates traveled widely in 2015, and not just to the earliest states. There was this whole discussion about whether the SEC primary was working. Working, that is, in the sense that the collective movement of southern states to Super Tuesday would draw candidate attention to the region. Visits occurred to the South and elsewhere, but none of them skipped Iowa, New Hampshire or any of the other early states. Well, some of the candidates did. They skipped the later early states after withdrawing. DeSantis may pepper other states with visits, but keep an eye on him and others as Iowa and New Hampshire approach. They will not be skipping either. 
3. The most interesting part of the article was this peek into the thinking from inside Team DeSantis. “One thing that we have looked at is that Trump can be beat on the delegate portion of all this. He has never been good at that.” That is straight out of the Cruz playbook from 2016. And it made sense in 2016. In 2023-24? Eh, maybe. Maybe not. This can be filed into that category of "Where is Trump this cycle? Closer to 2015 or 2019?" Trump will have for 2024 some institutional advantages within the party at the state level that he did not have in 2015. He definitely had that in 2019 and worked that to his advantage in the 2020 delegate game. Those connections still exist. But are they as strong? That is the question. And that matters for who fills the delegate slots that are allocated to candidates based on the results of primaries and caucuses across the country. Will those folks selected to fill those allocated slots be as firmly in Trump's corner or can other campaigns potentially exploit the divorce between the allocation and selection processes in the Republican nomination in the way that Cruz did in 2016? RNC rules may make that more difficult for challengers to Trump in 2024. This is the story. Focus on that.

...

Anything you can do, I can do better. DeSantis scored a congressional endorsement this week and the Trump campaign then conveniently rolled out an endorsement from a member of Congress from right in DeSantis' backyard. Rep. Byron Donalds (R-FL) threw his support behind Donald Trump.

...

Yeah, those head-to-head Republican primary poll results keep popping up. This time it was a one-on-one between Trump and DeSantis in Iowa (with parallel numbers for a wider race as well). On the one hand, these head-to-heads are make believe. They capture a race that does not exist and very likely will not exist when voting commences in 2024. There will be more candidates in the race, at least initially, than merely Trump and DeSantis. But the supposed value added is to demonstrate that Trump is more vulnerable in a one-on-one race. That is another hypothesis that finds its roots in 2016 and may or may not have been true then anymore than it is now. 

The assumption nestled in all of this, of course, is that DeSantis has the best shot to take down Trump (but can only do so if the others get out of the way). But that is only a partial test. It only gets part of the way toward an answer because it only consistently tests one alternative against Trump. How do the other candidates do head-to-head with Trump? Better or worse than in a multi-candidate race? Clearly, the retort here is likely to be that other candidates are not tested against Trump because they are in single digits in the multi-candidate polls. Fair, but why trust the multi-candidate polls in that case and not for measuring how DeSantis is doing against Trump? 

The head-to-heads only offer spin opportunities for the campaigns. They certainly do not tell us much about how voters and the field will react once votes are actually cast in a multi-candidate race in the early states next year and voters in subsequent states begin to process that information. That picture will develop and change.

...

Over at FHQ Plus...

• Thursday was a busy day for presidential primary bill movement across the country. There were a variety of changes in Idaho, Maryland and Missouri.

If you haven't checked out FHQ Plus yet, then what are you waiting for? Subscribe below.

...

On this date...

...in 1984, former Vice President Walter Mondale won the Wisconsin Democratic caucuses, days after Gary Hart claimed victory in the beauty contest primary. [The caucuses were used to allocate delegates.]

...in 1988, Senator Paul Simon (D-IL) withdrew from the Democratic nomination race, just a few weeks after his lone win in his home state primary. 

...in 1992, Bill Clinton took the Wisconsin primary, and President George H.W. Bush swept primaries in Kansas, Minnesota and Wisconsin. 

[As a fun aside, a representative from the Kansas secretary of state's office recently testifying before a committee about the presidential primary bill in the Sunflower state noted that the state held a rare presidential primary in 1992. That was a function of a request, he said, from Bob Dole to ensure that delegates went to the president and not potentially Pat Buchanan in a caucus.]

...in 2015, Senator Rand Paul (R-KY) entered the race for the 2016 Republican presidential nomination. 

...in 2020, former Vice President Joe Biden won the delayed and then not delayed Wisconsin primary.

--

Recent posts:

Invisible Primary: Visible -- Biden Gets Another Challenger

Invisible Primary: Visible -- Doug Burgum Ducks Presidential Questions Back Home

Invisible Primary: Visible -- Tim Scott Staffs Up

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See more on our political/electoral consulting venture at FHQ Strategies.