The Electoral College Map (7/28/12)

There were some leftovers from Friday:

New State Polls (7/28/12)
State	Poll	Date	Margin of Error	Sample	Obama	Romney	Undecided	Poll Margin	FHQ Margin
North Dakota	DFM Research	7/24-7/26	+/- 4.9%	400 likely voters	35	54	12 (includes "other" responses)	+19	+16.46
Ohio	Magellan Strategies	7/23-7/24	+/- 4.01%	597 likely voters	45	43	3	+2	+3.95

Polling Quick Hits:
North Dakota:
What a difference four years makes. At this point in 2008, North Dakota was a toss up state by FHQ's measure; closer than eventual blue states Florida, Indiana and North Carolina.¹ That is either an indictment of the methodology or a cautionary tale about placing too much faith in the predictive power of polls conducted during or before July. Given how things ended up in November, I am comfortable saying it was the latter. The 2008 polling of the Peace Garden state up to July showed a race in the low to mid-single digits (in both directions: Obama & McCain).

North Dakota ultimately ended up in the McCain column in November, but the Arizona senator's advantage in vote share was just less than 9 points. In July that would have been a Lean McCain state.  In 2012, Romney's advantage -- according to FHQ's weighted average -- is about eight points greater than the Republican vote share in 2008 and more than 15 points greater than the simple average of polls at this point in the race in 2008. North Dakota is firmly on Romney's side of the ledger.

Ohio:
I said quite a bit about Ohio yesterday, so I'll keep it brief here. This Magellan poll at +2 Obama is probably a better snapshot of the Buckeye state than the +8 Obama We Ask American survey. It is closer to the FHQ weighted average anyway. In the terms of yesterday's discussion, the Magellan poll finds Obama at the very bottom of this Ohio range and Romney right in the middle of his more widely dispersed set of poll points. Look, Ohio is going to be right there as a potential tipping point state unless something comes along to fundamentally alter the outlook of this race. A Portman selection as Romney's running mate would change things, but probably not enough to consider that the type of fundamental shift to which I'm referring. But it would have an effect.

Neither poll did enough to the weighted averages in either state to change the electoral college map. The Electoral College Spectrum saw North Dakota switch places with Mississippi, but that is more a cosmetic change than a consequential one. Again, North Dakota is a Romney state and that isn't going to change.

The Electoral College Spectrum1
RI-4 (7)2	CT-7 (153)	NH-4 (257)	IN-11 (159)	MS-6 (55)
HI-4 (11)	NJ-14 (167)	OH-183 (275/281)	MT-3 (148)	ND-3 (49)
NY-29 (40)	MN-10 (177)	CO-9 (284/263)	GA-16 (145)	AL-9 (46)
VT-3 (43)	WA-12 (189)	VA-13 (297/254)	WV-5 (129)	KY-8 (37)
MD-10 (53)	NM-5 (194)	IA-6 (303/241)	SC-9 (124)	KS-6 (29)
CA-55 (108)	OR-7 (201)	FL-29 (332/235)	LA-8 (115)	AK-3 (23)
MA-11 (119)	PA-20 (221)	NC-15 (206)	NE-5 (107)	OK-7 (20)
IL-20 (139)	WI-10 (231)	MO-10 (191)	AR-6 (102)	ID-4 (13)
DE-3 (142)	NV-6 (237)	AZ-11 (181)	TX-38 (96)	WY-3 (9)
ME-4 (146)	MI-16 (253)	TN-11 (170)	SD-3 (58)	UT-6 (6)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. 2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Romney won all the states up to and including Ohio (all Obama's toss up states plus Ohio), he would have 272 electoral votes. Romney's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and Romney's is on the right in italics. 3 Ohio is the state where Obama crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line.

The We Ask American Ohio poll put the Buckeye state on the Watch List, but the Magellan poll recalibrated the weighted average just enough to pull it back off again. Other than that the list remains unchanged.

The Watch List1
State	Switch
Georgia	from Strong Romney	to Lean Romney
Michigan	from Lean Obama	to Toss Up Obama
Missouri	from Lean Romney	to Toss Up Romney
Nevada	from Lean Obama	to Toss Up Obama
New Hampshire	from Toss Up Obama	to Lean Obama
New Mexico	from Strong Obama	to Lean Obama
North Carolina	from Toss Up Romney	to Toss Up Obama
Washington	from Strong Obama	to Lean Obama
West Virginia	from Strong Romney	to Lean Romney
Wisconsin	from Lean Obama	to Toss Up Obama
1 Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

Please see:

Frequently Asked Questions about FHQ graduated weighted average methodology.

--
¹ Note that the July 30 electoral college post in 2008 is when the at that point yet to be named -- or fully formed for that matter -- Electoral College Spectrum made its first appearance. 

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Race to 1144: CO, MN & ND Conventions

Source:
Contest Delegates (via contest results and rules, and RNC)
Automatic Delegates (Democratic Convention Watch)

Delegate breakdown (post-CO, MN & ND conventions):


Changes since Maryland, Washington, DC & Wisconsin (4/3/12):

• Romney: +25 delegates (Colorado: +14, North Dakota: +7, New York: +2, Connecticut: +1, Massachusetts: +1)
• Santorum: +15 delegates (North Dakota: +7, Colorado: +6, Minnesota: +2)
• Paul: +12 delegates (Minnesota: +10, North Dakota: +2)
• Gingrich: +1 delegate (North Dakota: +1)

Notes:
1) Mitt Romney has picked up five automatic delegates in the time since the April 3 primaries: two in New York and one each in Colorado, Connecticut and Massachusetts.

2) The AP reported in the week after the North Dakota Republican state convention that of the 25 total delegates, Romney added 12, Santorum 8, Paul 2 and Gingrich 1. The remaining two contest delegates were uncommitted.

3) In Colorado, Romney was awarded 13 delegates, Santorum 6 and the final 14 contest delegates remained uncommitted following the state and congressional district conventions over the weekend.

4) The four congressional district conventions that have been held in Minnesota have favored Texas congressman, Ron Paul, thus far. Ten of his supporters have won slots while Santorum delegates filled out the 12 delegate slate.

5) The allocation of the delegates in Georgia is based on the most recent vote returns published online by the office of the Georgia Secretary of State. The allocation here differs from the RNC allocation in Georgia. The above grants Gingrich one additional delegate (which has been taken from Romney's total). Due to the way the Georgia Republican Party rounds fractional delegates, the FHQ count was off by one delegate (+Romney/-Gingrich). The congressional district count is unaffected (Gingrich 31, Romney, 8 and Santorum 3), but the way the at-large delegates are allocated to Gingrich and Romney -- the only candidates over 20% statewide -- is a bit quirky. Gingrich's portion of the vote would have entitled him to 14.6 delegates and Romney's 8.0. Under Georgia Republican rules, Gingrich is given 14 delegates and Romney 8. That leaves nine delegates unclaimed because the remaining candidates did not clear the 20% threshold. The candidate with the highest "remainder" is awarded the first delegate and the candidates over 20% trade turns until all of those delegates are allocated. Remember, Gingrich did not round up to 15 delegates (14.6), but that 0.6 gives him a larger "remainder" than Romney. The former speaker, then, is allocated the first of nine delegates. With an odd number of delegates leftover, Gingrich would have a fifth turn after Romney's fourth and that would end the allocation of those "extra" delegates. Gingrich would claim five to Romney's four. Of the 31 at-large delegates, Gingrich is allocated 19 and Romney 12. Please note that for winning the statewide vote, Gingrich is allocated the three automatic delegates. That makes the final allocation Gingrich 53, Romney 20 and Santorum 3. The RNC, though, has a different interpretation.

6) The Alabama primary results by congressional district have not been released by the Alabama Republican Party. The distribution above is based on the RNC interpretation of the allocation.

7)  Iowa Republican Party Chairman Spiker was a part of the Paul campaign in Iowa and resigned his position upon taking up the post of party chair. While he has expressed his intent to side with whomever the Republican nominee will be, Spiker has not also directly signaled any neutrality in the race. The door is open for his support of Paul at a potential contested convention. While FHQ includes Spiker in Paul's delegate total, it is necessary to make note of the possible future subtraction of one delegate that would bring the Texas congressman's total to 26.

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Romney Turns the Tables on Santorum/Paul at North Dakota Republican Convention

UPDATE: The AP is reporting the North Dakota delegate preferences as follows: Romney: 12, Santorum: 8, Paul: 2, Uncommitted: 2 and Gingrich 1. [4/6/12]

FHQ tweeted yesterday that a better indicator of where Rick Santorum stands in the Republican presidential nomination race currently may be the North Dakota Republican state convention this weekend instead of the Wisconsin primary on Tuesday.

Why?

Well, the emerging conventional wisdom is that the contest is, at best, slipping away from Santorum if it has not already completely slipped out of his campaign's grasp. Wisconsin is another one of those midwestern/Rust Belt opportunities for the former Pennsylvania senator (see Michigan, Ohio and Illinois), but North Dakota represents a state where he has already done well; winning the March 6 straw poll in the Peace Garden state. If he performs up to or overperforms the 39% of the vote he received in the straw poll in the convention delegate selection, then nothing really changes. If, however, Santorum underperforms in the delegate count compared to his straw poll vote share in North Dakota, then that is likely to be indicative of lack of organization within the Santorum campaign concerning caucus/convention states, state party establishment coalescence around Mitt Romney (or another candidate or candidates), and/or the delegates at the state convention collectively coming to a different conclusion as to which delegates represent the state at the national convention.

Recall that the 25 North Dakota delegates to the Republican National Convention in Tampa are technically unbound. The straw poll had no binding effect on the delegates who will ultimately be chosen. That said, it appears that the North Dakota Republican Party has made some effort to use that unbound loophole to their advantage; putting up for a vote at today's convention proceedings a group of delegates that seemingly leans heavily toward Mitt Romney. Romney placed third in the Super Tuesday straw poll in North Dakota with just under 24% of the vote.

However, news emerging from the convention this morning indicates that Romney may have the support of up to 60% of the national convention delegates placed in nomination and voted on by the state convention delegates.¹ The formula used by the North Dakota State Executive Committee that yielded that outcome was weighted toward volunteers, donors and elected officials, obviously a group aligned with the establishment in the North Dakota GOP and more likely -- it could be argued -- to support Romney.

Given that both Rick Santorum and Ron Paul finished ahead of Romney in the straw poll, their supporters on the floor of Saturday's convention meeting were not happy and quite vocal in opposition to the slate of delegates put forth by the state party for a vote by the state convention delegates. Former North Dakota Republican Party chairman and Santorum supporter, Gary Emineth, called the delegate selection process "a railroad job" and that the party establishment had "hijacked" the process.. Additionally, current chairman, Stan Stein, shouted down dissenting voices and failed to recognize others as the process fell into a back and forth of parliamentary procedure.

The party and most of the convention was willing to proceed to the other business of the day: endorsements in races down-ballot from the presidential race. Following that, the convention adjourned for today while ballots were still being counted from the national delegate vote. That will be finalized tonight sometime.

So much for those AP fantasy delegates allocated to Santorum and Paul after Super Tuesday. Unbound these delegates may be, but they have preferences that in the aggregate seem to favor Mitt Romney well above his straw poll support level.

We'll see by just how much tomorrow.

--
¹ Others in attendance at the North Dakota Republican Party state convention indicated that the NDGOP slate put forward would have given Romney 20 delegates, Santorum 6 and Paul 2. That would have been over 70% of the 28 total delegates the party will send to Tampa who would have backed Romney; about triple the level of support he received compared to the straw poll.


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2012 Republican Delegate Allocation: North Dakota

This is the nineteenth in a multipart series of posts that will examine the Republican delegate allocation by state.¹ The main goal of this exercise is to assess the rules for 2012 -- especially relative to 2008 -- in order to gauge the impact the changes to the rules along the winner-take-all/proportionality spectrum may have on the race for the Republican nomination. As FHQ has argued in the past, this has often been cast as a black and white change. That the RNC has winner-take-all rules and the Democrats have proportional rules. Beyond that, the changes have been wrongly interpreted in a great many cases as having made a 180º change from straight winner-take-all to straight proportional rules in all pre-April 1 primary and caucus states. That is not the case. 

The new requirement has been adopted in a number of different ways across the states. Some have moved to a conditional system where winner-take-all allocation is dependent upon one candidate receiving 50% or more of the vote and others have responded by making just the usually small sliver of a state's delegate apportionment from the national party -- at-large delegates -- proportional as mandated by the party. Those are just two examples. There are other variations in between that also allow state parties to comply with the rules. FHQ has long argued that the effect of this change would be to lengthen the process. However, the extent of the changes from four years ago is not as great as has been interpreted and points to the spacing of the 2012 primary calendar -- and how that interacts with the ongoing campaign -- being a much larger factor in the accumulation of delegates (Again, especially relative to the 2008 calendar).

For links to the other states' plans see the Republican Delegate Selection Plans by State section in the left sidebar under the calendar.


NORTH DAKOTA

It is likely sufficient to say that to get a sense of how the North Dakota Republican delegate selection/allocation process operates, one can simply look at Iowa, Colorado, Maine, Minnesota and Washington as broad guides. Republicans in the Peace Garden state will similarly hold a non-binding straw poll vote in the precinct caucuses across 47 legislative districts in the state. Again, the straw poll results are non-binding and give us a snapshot of how well each candidate has done among the caucusgoers in attendance. Ultimately, the 28 delegates North Dakota Republicans were apportioned will head to the Tampa convention unbound (but free to endorse). That means that the process is just starting tonight and will not be complete until those delegates are selected at the state convention on March 30-April 1.

There is no party registration in North Dakota, so any registered voter can participate in the caucuses.

North Dakota delegate breakdown:

• 28 total delegates
• 22 at-large delegates
• 3 congressional district delegates
• 3 automatic delegates

Both the congressional district and at-large delegates will be selected at the state convention. With only one congressional district, the state convention in North Dakota -- unlike Alaska for instance -- doubles as a district convention gathering as well. The Republican national committeeman and Republican national committeewoman -- both automatic delegates -- are also elected at the state convention in presidential election years.

--
UPDATE: As our anonymous commenter has pointed out, district conventions have been going on since January 17 and will continue into March. That, however, is a completely separate vote from the straw poll that is being conducted across the 47 districts across the state today. This does say something about the likely link between the two events though. If FHQ has talk about anything consistently, it is that the snapshot in the straw poll vote does not necessarily reflect the vote in the delegate allocation portion of the meeting. And that is within one meeting. If the two votes are separately the link between the straw poll vote and the delegate selection (through the initial district-level conventions) is even more tenuous.

--
UPDATE (3/30/12): The delegate selection process will be complete with the selection of congressional district and at-large delegates at the March 30-April 1 convention in the Peace Garden state. Those delegates are technically unbound, but it will be up to the state party, old-fashioned press reporting or the selected delegates themselves revealing who they prefer. Rick Santorum won the March 6 straw poll and this weekend may be a better indicator of where the former Pennsylvania senator stands in this race than the Wisconsin primary on Tuesday. If he performs up to or overperforms his straw poll performance in the final delegate count in North Dakota, then nothing really changes. If, however, Santorum underperforms in the delegate count compared to his straw poll showing, then it will be revealing about his organization and perhaps the emerging inevitability argument in this Republican nomination race.

--
¹ FHQ would say 50 part, but that doesn't count the territories and Washington, DC.

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The 2012 Presidential Primary Calendar (9/28/11)

Republican contests in Alaska and North Dakota are now off the board and on the calendar:

[Click to Enlarge]

2012 Presidential Primary Calendar

Yet to decide/be confirmed:

Iowa Republicans

New Hampshire

Nevada Republicans

South Carolina Republicans

Florida
Georgia

Missouri

Wisconsin

February 2012

Monday, February 6:

Iowa Democratic caucuses  (based on DNC rules and submitted delegate selection plan)

Saturday, February 4:
(through February 11) Maine Republican caucuses 


Tuesday, February 7:

Colorado Republican caucuses 

Minnesota Republican caucuses
Missouri (could move to March 6)

Saturday, February 18:

Nevada Democratic caucuses (based on DNC rules and submitted delegate selection plan)

Tuesday, February 21:

Wisconsin (bill moving primary to April 3 awaiting gubernatorial action)

Tuesday, February 28:

Arizona

Michigan (bill keeping primary on February 28 awaiting gubernatorial action)
South Carolina Democratic primary (based on DNC rules and submitted delegate selection plan)

March 2012

Saturday, March 3:
Washington Republican caucuses


Tuesday, March 6 (Super Tuesday):
Alaska Republican district conventions

Colorado Democratic caucuses 
Idaho Republican caucuses 

Massachusetts (active legislation would move primary to June -- unlikely to pass)
Minnesota Democratic caucuses 
North Dakota Republican caucuses

Ohio
Oklahoma 

Tennessee 

Texas 

Vermont
Virginia
(through March 10) Wyoming Republican caucuses

Saturday, March 10: 
Kansas Republican caucuses


Sunday, March 11:
Maine Democratic caucuses


Tuesday, March 13:
Alabama 

Hawaii Republican caucuses
Mississippi
Utah Democratic caucuses

Tuesday, March 20: 

Illinois

Saturday, March 24:
Louisiana 

April 2012

Tuesday, April 3:

Maryland
Washington, DC

Saturday, April 7:
Hawaii Democratic caucuses
Wyoming Democratic caucuses

Saturday, April 14:
Idaho Democratic caucuses 
Kansas Democratic caucuses 
Nebraska Democratic caucuses

Sunday, April 15:

Alaska Democratic caucuses
Washington Democratic caucuses

Tuesday, April 24:

Connecticut
Delaware
New York
Pennsylvania
Rhode Island 

May 2012

Saturday, May 5:
Michigan Democratic caucuses


Tuesday, May 8:

Indiana

North Carolina (active legislation would move primary to March 6 -- unlikely to pass)

West Virginia

Tuesday, May 15:

Nebraska

Oregon

Tuesday, May 22:

Arkansas 

Kentucky 

June 2012

Tuesday, June 5:

California
Montana
New Jersey 

New Mexico
North Dakota Democratic caucuses
South Dakota

Tuesday, June 26:
Utah (Republicans only) 

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Super Tuesday Caucuses for North Dakota Republicans

[Click to Enlarge]

The North Dakota Republican State Committee met on the evening of Tuesday, September 27 and finalized plans for their 2012 delegate selection. North Dakota Republican Party Communications Director, Matt Becker, has confirmed to FHQ via email that the caucus/convention process will begin with March 6 caucuses and culminate with the state convention during the March 30-April 1 weekend.

Notes:
1. North Dakota Republicans will caucus three months prior to their Democratic counterparts in the state. As of now, that is the greatest amount of time between Republican and Democratic delegate selection in any state across the country.

2. Super Tuesday has been shifted back a month in 2012 relative to 2008, and yet North Dakota Republicans have stuck with a date for precinct caucuses on the earliest date allowed by the national parties. That will mean, however, that there will be a month less time between the precinct caucuses and the state convention.

3. North Dakota Republicans now occupy the space on March 6 that Colorado Republicans vacated over the weekend. There are now, once again, three western Republican caucus states scheduled to hold caucuses on March 6 (Idaho, North Dakota and Wyoming). As was the case in Idaho and Wyoming, North Dakota Republicans preferred Mitt Romney in their 2008 caucuses.

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The 2012 Presidential Primary Calendar (4/26/11)

North Dakota Democrats have made their choice for the date of the party's 2012 caucuses and attendant to that is an update of the 2012 presidential primary calendar.

[Click to Enlarge]

Reading the Map:

As was the case with the maps from past cycles, the earlier a contest is scheduled in 2012, the darker the color in which the state is shaded. Florida, for instance, is a much deeper shade of blue in January than South Dakota is in June. There are, however, some differences between the earlier maps and the one that appears above.

1. Several caucus states have yet to select a date for the first step of their delegate selection processes in 2012. Until a decision is made by state parties in those states, they will appear in gray on the map.
2. The states where legislation to move the presidential primary is active are two-toned. One color indicates the timing of the primary according to the current law whereas the second color is meant to highlight the most likely month to which the primary could be moved. [With the exception of Texas, the proposed movement is backward.] This is clear in most states, but in others -- Maryland and Tennessee -- where multiple timing options are being considered, the most likely date is used. Here that is defined as a bill -- or date change -- with the most institutional support. In both cases, the majority party leadership is sponsoring one change over another (February to March in Tennessee and February to April in Maryland). That option is given more weight on the map.
3. Kentucky is unique because the legislation there calls for shifting the primary from May to August. As August is not included in the color coding, white designates that potential move with the May shade of blue. Georgia, too, is unique. The state legislature is considering a bill to shift primary date-setting power from the legislature to the secretary of state. The effect is that the Peach state has a dark blue stripe for its current February primary date and a gray stripe to reflect the fact that a change from that based on the bill in question would put the future 2012 primary date in limbo until December 1 at the latest.
4. Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina are shaded on the map according to the latest possible date these states would have if Florida opts not to move their primary into compliance with the national party rules. Iowa Republicans and Nevada Republicans and Democrats have decided to accept the party-designated dates, but FHQ operates under the assumption that both will move to a point ahead of the earliest exempt state should one or more move or maintain a February or earlier date.
5. States that are bisected vertically are states where the state parties have different dates for their caucuses and/or primaries. The left hand section is shaded to reflect the state Democratic Party's scheduling while the right is for the state Republican Party's decision on the timing of its delegate selection event.

Reading the Calendar:

1. Caucus states are italicized while primary states are not. Several caucus states are missing from the list because they have not formalized the date on which their contests will be held in 2012. Colorado appears because the caucuses dates there are set by the state, whereas a state like Alaska has caucuses run by the state parties and as such do not have their dates codified in state law.
2. States that have changed dates appear twice (or more) on the calendar; once by the old date and once by the new date. The old date will be struck through while the new date will be color-coded with the amount of movement (in days) in parentheses. States in green are states that have moved to earlier dates on the calendar and states in red are those that have moved to later dates. Arkansas, for example, has moved its 2012 primary and moved it back 104 days from its 2008 position.
3. The date of any primary or caucus moves that have taken place -- whether through gubernatorial signature or state party move -- also appear in parentheses following the state's/party's new entry on the calendar.
4. States with active legislation have links to those bills included with their entries on the calendar. If there are multiple bills they are divided by chamber and/or numbered accordingly.
5. Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina appear twice. The earlier entry corresponds with the latest possible date these states would have if Florida opts not to move their primary into compliance with the national party rules. The second, later entry for each of the non-exempt states reflects the position the national parties would prefer the earliest states to hold their delegate selection events.

2012 Presidential Primary Calendar

January 2012

Monday, January 16:

Iowa caucuses¹

Tuesday, January 24:

New Hampshire¹

Saturday, January 28:

Nevada caucuses¹

South Carolina¹

A note on the placement of Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina.

Tuesday, January 31:

Florida (bills: House 1, 2/Senate)

February 2012

Monday, February 6:

Iowa caucuses (moved: 2/8/11) (based on national party rules)

Tuesday, February 7 (Super Tuesday):

Alabama (bills: House 1, 2)

Arkansas

California (bills: Assembly)

Connecticut (bills: House)

Delaware

Georgia (bills: House)

Illinois

Minnesota caucuses (+28) (moved: 3/1/11)

Missouri (bills: House 1, 2, 3/Senate)

Montana Republican caucuses

New Jersey (bills: Assembly 1, 2/Senate)

New York

Oklahoma (bills: House 1, 2, 3/Senate 1, 2)

Tennessee (bills: House 1, 2, 3/Senate 1, 2, 3)

Utah

Saturday, February 11:

Louisiana (bills: House)

Tuesday, February 14:

Maryland (bills: House/Senate 1, 2)

New Hampshire (based on national party rules)

Virginia

Washington, DC (bills: Council)

Saturday, February 18:

Nevada Republican caucuses (-28) (moved: 12/16/10) (based on national party rules)

Nevada Democratic caucuses² (-28) (moved: 2/24/11) (based on national party rules)

Tuesday, February 21:

Hawaii Republican caucuses (+87) (moved: 5/16/09)

Wisconsin

Tuesday, February 28:

Arizona³

Michigan⁴ (bills: House)

South Carolina (based on national party rules)

March 2012

Tuesday, March 6:

Massachusetts⁴ (bills: House)

Ohio

Rhode Island

Texas (bills: House)

Vermont

Virginia (-21) (bills: House 1, 2/Senate) (moved: 3/25/11)

Sunday, March 11:

Maine Democratic caucuses (-28) (moved: 3/27/11)

Tuesday, March 13:

Mississippi

Utah Democratic caucuses (-35) (moved: 3/25/11)

Tuesday, March 20:

Colorado caucuses⁵ (bills: House)

Illinois (-42) (bills: Senate) (signed: 3/17/10)

April 2012

Tuesday, April 3:

Kansas (bills: House/Senate -- cancel primary)

Saturday, April 7:

Hawaii Democratic caucuses (-46) (moved: 3/18/11)

Washington Democratic caucuses (-56) (moved: 3/26/11)

Wyoming Democratic caucuses (-28) (moved: 3/16/11)

Saturday, April 14:

Nebraska Democratic caucuses (-60) (moved: 3/5/11)

Sunday, April 15:

Alaska Democratic caucuses (-70) (moved: 4/4/11)

Tuesday, April 24:

Pennsylvania

May 2012

Saturday, May 5:

Michigan Democratic caucuses (-111) (moved: 4/13/11)

Tuesday, May 8:

Indiana

North Carolina (bills: Senate)

West Virginia

Tuesday, May 15:

Idaho (+7) (bills: House) (signed: 2/23/11)

Nebraska

Oregon (bills: House)

Tuesday, May 22:

Arkansas (-107) (bills: House) (signed: 2/4/09)

Idaho

Kentucky (bills: House) (died: legislature adjourned)

Washington (bills: House 1, 2/Senate -- cancel primary)

June 2012

Tuesday, June 5:

Montana (GOP -121) (moved: 6/18/10)

New Mexico⁶ (bills: Senate) (died: legislature adjourned)

North Dakota Democratic caucuses (-121) (moved: 4/21/11)

South Dakota

¹ New Hampshire law calls for the Granite state to hold a primary on the second Tuesday of March or seven days prior to any other similar election, whichever is earlier. Florida is first now, so New Hampshire would be a week earlier at the latest. Traditionally, Iowa has gone on the Monday a week prior to New Hampshire. For the time being we'll wedge South Carolina in on the Saturday between New Hampshire and Florida, but these are just guesses at the moment. Any rogue states could cause a shift.

² The Nevada Democratic caucuses date is based on both DNC rules and the state party's draft delegate selection plan as of February 24, 2011.

³ In Arizona the governor can use his or her proclamation powers to move the state's primary to a date on which the event would have an impact on the nomination. In 2004 and 2008 the primary was moved to the first Tuesday in February.
⁴ Massachusetts and Michigan are the only states that passed a frontloading bill prior to 2008 that was not permanent. The Bay state reverts to its first Tuesday in March date in 2012 while Michigan will fall back to the fourth Tuesday in February.
⁵ The Colorado Democratic and Republican parties have the option to move their caucuses from the third Tuesday in March to the first Tuesday in February.
⁶ The law in New Mexico allows the parties to decide when to hold their nominating contests. The Democrats have gone in early February in the last two cycles, but the GOP has held steady in June. They have the option of moving however.

--

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