The Electoral College Map (10/26/20)

Update for October 26.

With just eight days left until voting in the presidential election concludes in the 2020 campaign, the new work week -- the last full one of the cycle -- began with a flurry of surveys once again right in the heart of the competitive (and/or targeted) states in the rank ordering. 12 new polls from seven states -- Florida, Georgia, Massachusetts, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Texas and Wisconsin -- highlighted the releases on the day, sending some mixed signals. And although the average margins at FHQ across those seven states moved things both ways -- some benefiting Biden and others Trump -- one often mentioned factor remained the same here as it has in recent weeks: Georgia and Texas remained among the most competitive on the board. That those two states are in that position and not states like Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin (that Trump narrowly flipped in 2016) says much about the state of this race as it draws to a close. As FHQ has said over the last several months, if Georgia, Iowa, Ohio and Texas are the closest states on November 3, then Biden will likely be in good shape in the race to 270 (assuming the established order of states holds up). 

So the day may have sent some mixed messages on a micro-level, on the macro-level, the story remains much the same as it has.

On to the polls... 

Polling Quick Hits:

Florida

(Biden 50, Trump 48)

[Current FHQ margin: Biden +3.24]

The RMG Research update in the Sunshine state was mostly a wash. The firm was last in the field in Florida a couple of weeks ago (Biden, 48-46), and while both candidates gained over that time, the margin stayed the same. Biden continues to lead there, but since the margin was once again below the established FHQ average, it inched downward slightly. Still, this is yet another example of the former vice president topping 50 percent in Florida.

Georgia

(Biden 47, Trump 46)

[Current FHQ margin: Biden +0.14]

Things have barely changed in Georgia over the last few days despite a number of new polls. Biden's already small advantage dwindled to +0.14 on Saturday and has stayed there since. There have been changes, but they have happened beyond the one-hundredths place, so they have been extremely small. The latest update to the UGA series of polls maintained that trajectory on Monday, but reversed course from the survey the university pollster released earlier this month. The president held a 48-46 edge in that survey. Yet that change did little to change just how close the Peach state is in the FHQ averages. 

Massachusetts

(Biden 64, Trump 29)

[Current FHQ margin: Biden +36.69]
As wild as it might be to think of a Biden +35 from YouGov/UMass in the Bay state lowering the average margin there, it nevertheless did. And again, it was, as in the Florida case above, below the established margin by just a hair. However, the new survey did mark the transition from a registered voter sample in the last poll in August and one with likely voters now. The Democratic nominee's 61-28 lead within the series, then, expanded in that shift (even if the average margin ticked down a notch).

Michigan

(Biden 52, Trump 42)

[Current FHQ margin: Biden +7.12]
The first in the latest round of Rust Belt surveys from YouGov/University of Wisconsin came from Michigan. And it is that first of three polls that showed the same thing: movement toward the former vice president since the last round in September (Biden, 51-45). Most of that movement in the Michigan polls from September to October was away from Trump more than it was toward Biden. But in both polls, the Democratic nominee was above 50 percent, continuing a trend there over the last month or more. 

Pennsylvania

(Biden 51, Trump 44 via Ipsos | Trump 48, Biden 46 via InsiderAdvantage | Biden 52, Trump 44 via YouGov/University of Wisconsin)

[Current FHQ margin: Biden +5.37]
YouGov was also in the field in Pennsylvania, and like in Michigan, the Biden lead in the latest poll expanded relative to the last one in September (Biden, 49-45). But in the Keystone state (as opposed to Michigan), it was Biden who gained more than Trump lost over that span. The same general dynamic was true of the update to the Ipsos series in the commonwealth as well. There, too, Biden edged over the 50 percent mark since the last poll a week ago (Biden, 49-45), but the former vice president also gained more during that interim period than Trump lost. However, the third poll out of Pennsylvania on Monday ran counter to the the movement toward Biden in the other two surveys out today. The update from Insider Advantage saw a narrow 46-43 Biden lead from September gave way to a narrow Trump advantage now. But just for some context, the last time Trump was ahead in Pennsylvania was a Spry Strategies survey in July. The president has led in just nine of the 121 surveys conducted in Pennsylvania in calendar 2020 and seven of those nine fell between January and May. Biden has been in control in the Pennsylvania polls since his nationwide polling surge in June and July. 

Texas

(Biden 49, Trump 48 via Data for Progress | Trump 47, Biden 43 via Siena/NYT Upshot | Trump 50, Biden 45 via YouGov/Hobby Center)

[Current FHQ margin: Trump +1.49]

There was also a trio of new polls in the Lone Star state today. And this was a source of, if not good, then better news for the president. Both the poll from the Democratic-leaning Data for Progress and the one from Siena basically held the line from their immediately prior surveys in their series in Texas. Both candidates saw their support increase in the Data for Progress survey relative to the last one a week ago, but Biden's one point lead remained the same. In the Siena survey, Trump grew his advantage by one as Biden stayed stuck on a 43 percent share of support for a second consecutive month. Finally, YouGov also fielded a new poll in Texas, but it was its first partnered with the Hobby School at the University of Houston. This is the firm's fourth different partner in a Texas poll this year and it is in line with the others that have not involved CBS News. Those polls with CBS have tended to be closer -- within a couple of points -- while the remainder have typically shown a Trump lead of greater than four points fairly consistently. That consistency is good news for the president's chances of holding Texas next month, but it also speaks to a swing toward the Democrats since election day 2016.

Wisconsin

(Biden 53, Trump 44 via Ipsos | Biden 53, Trump 44 via YouGov/University of Wisconsin)

[Current FHQ margin: Biden +6.34]

In the Badger state, the pair of new surveys out on Monday told a remarkably similar story. Not only did both polls show a 53-44 Biden advantage, but both witnessed both Biden growth in support and a contraction of Trump's since the last polls in the Ipsos and YouGov series. As Trump continued to be mired in the mid-40s in a state where he won in 2016 with just more than 47 percent, Biden pushed further above 50 percent. But at FHQ, the Democratic nominee rounds up to 50 percent in his average share of support in all three blue wall states -- Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin -- and with more polls coming in with him north of that mark, he may soon be above it as election day nears. 

NOTE: 

A description of the methodology behind the graduated weighted average of 2020 state-level polling that FHQ uses for these projections can be found here.

The Electoral College Spectrum1
DC-3 VT-3 (6)2	IL-20 (162)	WI-10 (253)	AK-3 (125)	TN-11 (60)
MA-11 (17)	OR-7 (169)	PA-203 (273 | 285)	MO-10 (122)	KY-8 (49)
MD-10 (27)	NJ-14 (183)	NV-6 (279 | 265)	SC -9 (112)	SD-3 (41)
HI-4 (31)	ME-2 (185)	FL-29 (308 | 259)	MT-3 NE CD1-1 (103)	AL-9 (38)
NY-29 (60)	CO-9 (194)	AZ-11 (319 | 230)	KS-6 (99)	ID-4 (29)
CA-55 (115)	VA-13 (207)	NC-15 ME CD2-1 (335 | 219)	NE-2 (93)	AR-6 (25)
DE-3 (118)	NH-4 (211)	GA-16 (351 | 203)	IN-11 (91)	OK-7 (19)
WA-12 (130)	NM-5 (216)	IA-6 (187)	UT-6 (80)	ND-3 (12)
ME CD1-1 CT-7 (138)	MN-10 (226)	OH-18 (181)	MS-6 (74)	WV-5 (9)
RI-4 (142)	NE CD2-1 MI-16 (243)	TX-38 (163)	LA-8 (68)	WY-3 NE CD3-1 (4)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. 2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Pennsylvania (Biden's toss up states plus the Pennsylvania), he would have 285 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Biden's number is on the left and Trump's is on the right in bold italics. 3 Pennsylvania is the state where Biden crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election, the tipping point state. The tipping point cell is shaded in yellow to denote that and the font color is adjusted to attempt to reflect the category in which the state is.

Even with a bevy of new swing state polls, everything held steady at FHQ to open the new work week. The map, Electoral College Spectrum and Watch List all remained unchanged from a day ago. That means that Pennsylvania, a state where Biden is closing in on 50 percent, continues to hold down the tipping point state designation, nearly five and a half points out of the president's reach. That was a steep climb a month ago. It is even steeper now at this late date. 

8 days to go.

Where things stood at FHQ on October 26 (or close to it) in...
2016
2012
2008


--
NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Biden and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.

The Watch List1
State	Potential Switch
Georgia	from Toss Up Biden	to Toss Up Trump
Iowa	from Toss Up Trump	to Toss Up Biden
Nevada	from Toss Up Biden	to Lean Biden
New Hampshire	from Strong Biden	to Lean Biden
New Mexico	from Strong Biden	to Lean Biden
Ohio	from Toss Up Trump	to Toss Up Biden
Pennsylvania	from Lean Biden	to Toss Up Biden
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

--
Methodological Note: In past years, FHQ has tried some different ways of dealing with states with no polls or just one poll in the early rounds of these projections. It does help that the least polled states are often the least competitive. The only shortcoming is that those states may be a little off in the order in the Spectrum. In earlier cycles, a simple average of the state's three previous cycles has been used. But in 2016, FHQ strayed from that and constructed an average swing from 2012 to 2016 that was applied to states. That method, however, did little to prevent anomalies like the Kansas poll that had Clinton ahead from biasing the averages. In 2016, the early average swing in the aggregate was  too small to make much difference anyway. For 2020, FHQ has utilized an average swing among states that were around a little polled state in the rank ordering on election day in 2016. If there is just one poll in Delaware in 2020, for example, then maybe it is reasonable to account for what the comparatively greater amount of polling tells us about the changes in Connecticut, New Jersey and New Mexico. Or perhaps the polling in Iowa, Mississippi and South Carolina so far tells us a bit about what may be happening in Alaska where no public polling has been released. That will hopefully work a bit better than the overall average that may end up a bit more muted.


--
Related posts:

The Electoral College Map (10/25/20)

The Electoral College Map (10/24/20)

The Electoral College Map (10/23/20)

Follow FHQ on Twitter, Instagram and Facebook or subscribe by Email.

The Electoral College Map (10/25/20)

Update for October 25.

FHQ called last weekend the calm before the storm. And that certainly ended up being at least somewhat prophetic as an avalanche of new polling data was released throughout the last week. But this weekend has been less sedate on the polling release front. Yes, yesterday's update was buoyed by some late Friday polls, but Sunday saw eight new polls out of seven mainly battleground states. The only exception was a rare update in South Dakota. But other than that, the focus of today's releases was either in blue wall states the president flipped in 2016 or in the Sun Belt, where the polling indicates that Joe Biden is potentially making inroads. In four of the states, the margins moved in Biden's direction. But the president importantly had new surveys in Florida and North Carolina that nudged those states toward him. Both remained Biden toss ups however. The Georgia margin did not change and the Peach state is still tilted in the former vice president's direction by the slimmest of margins.

On to the polls... 

Polling Quick Hits:

Florida

(Biden 50, Trump 48)

[Current FHQ margin: Biden +3.26]

The YouGov update in the Sunshine state may have bumped the margin there toward Trump, but that did not mean that the president was ahead in either the poll or in the FHQ graduated weighted averages of Florida polls. In this case, it just meant that the margin in the poll favored Biden but by less than his average margin at FHQ. This was the first YouGov survey in the series to include leaners, and while that bolstered both candidates' support, it did not alter the two point advantage Biden had in the last poll in September (or in the baseline with no leaners in this poll). Notably, Florida is another state where the Democratic nominee is closing in on a 50 percent average share of support. And that is borne out in the data. Half of the 28 October Florida surveys have found Biden at or above 50 percent (including this YouGov poll). 

Georgia

(Biden 49, Trump 49)

[Current FHQ margin: Biden +0.14]

Across the northern Florida border in Georgia YouGov continued to show a competitive race. Trump's narrow 47-46 edge in the firm's September poll has given way to a tie in October. What is more, leaners were included in this survey as well, but their inclusion did not break the tie in the baseline numbers. But this survey overall is consistent with the 47-47 (rounded) race in the FHQ averages. Yet, Georgia is inching toward Biden. Nine of the 14 October polls have had the former vice president tied or ahead of Trump.

Michigan

(Biden 55, Trump 42)

[Current FHQ margin: Biden +7.09]
In the Great Lakes state Gravis Marketing was back in the field for the first time since July. In those three months Trump remained stationary at 42 percent even as Biden was growing his share of support into the mid-50s. The Democratic nominee has yet to hit 50 percent in his average share of support in Michigan, but this poll is among 20 this month (of 28 total) that has had Biden at or above 50 percent. Biden may be gaining on the majority mark in the FHQ averages, but this 55 percent share is well out in front of the averages at the peak of his recent polling there. 

North Carolina

(Biden 51, Trump 47 via YouGov | Trump 49, Biden 46 via Trafalgar Group)

[Current FHQ margin: Biden +1.81]
There were two new surveys in the Tar Heel state that told opposing stories. Often when FHQ discusses such a situation, it is a Trafalgar poll on one side providing that counterpoint. Like the other two YouGov surveys on the day, this update in North Carolina also included leaners. And that transition helped the president more compared to the baseline data without leaners. Those leaners, then, were not what fueled the difference between the 48-46 advantage Biden held in September and now. Instead, it was just movement in the former vice president's direction. The opposite was true in the Trafalgar series in North Carolina. The president gained a point since September, but through the Trafalgar lens, the race for the 15 electoral votes at stake in the Old North state continued to be pretty static. But to provide some context on the Trafalgar polls in North Carolina in general, there have been 25 polls conducted in whole or in part in October and 20 of those have found Biden ahead with three more that had the race tied. That leaves just two polls with Trump in the lead there. Unlike the blue wall states, Biden is not closing in on 50 percent in North Carolina, not at the same pace anyway. Still, 11 of 25 October polls have found Biden at or above 50 percent in North Carolina. 

South Dakota

(Trump 51, Biden 40)

[Current FHQ margin: Trump +19.31]

This is the first time Mason-Dixon has been in the field in South Dakota in calendar 2020. In fact, this is the first pollster other than Survey Monkey to gauge presidential preference in the Mount Rushmore state all year. This also happens to be the tightest the race has appeared in any 2020 survey of South Dakota. "Tight" is a relative term in this context. An 11 point Trump lead is hardly evidence that South Dakota is going to slip across the partisan line and turn blue, but it is another data point that suggests a sizable swing from the 2016 election to polling in this cycle. Trump won the state by 30 points four years ago, so even if the average swing across the country is closing in on seven points (toward the Democrats) in that time, a 19 point shift is around triple the average swing. Again, Trump will not lose South Dakota but the potential shift there matters. [Please note that there is also a rather large combined chunk of support for other candidates and undecideds in this poll that affects that potential swing as well.]

Texas

(Biden 48, Trump 45)

[Current FHQ margin: Trump +1.39]

On the whole, the UT-Tyler series of surveys in the Lone Star state has indicated a closer race than in 2016, but has mostly favored Trump throughout 2020. But this reversal of the 48-46 Trump advantage in the university pollster's September survey is just the second time a poll in the series has found Biden ahead in Texas. The other was during Biden's peak polling period in June and July. Again, Texas looks a lot like North Carolina but on the Trump side of the partisan line. That is true of the two states' FHQ averages. Both stand at 48-46 (rounded) with Biden ahead in North Carolina and Trump in Texas. The question is whether that will hold. October polling in Texas thus far has been tipped more in Biden's direction. Of the 11 surveys conducted in Texas this month, the Democratic nominee has been tied or had in eight of them. And average margin reflects that. It has tracked downward toward the partisan line, but also toward inclusion on the Watch List below. 

Wisconsin

(Biden 54, Trump 43)

[Current FHQ margin: Biden +6.26]

The final Sunday poll release comes from Gravis Marketing out of Wisconsin. Like the firm's Michigan poll above, the one in the Badger state has Biden running more out ahead of his established FHQ average share of support than the president is his. But this is another one where the president barely budged from the low 40s since the last Gravis poll in Wisconsin in July as Biden saw his support push into the mid-50s.  And also like Michigan, October polling in Wisconsin has been Biden-favorable. 15 of the 21 surveys conducted in the state this month have found the former vice president at or above 50 percent. And with fewer than 10 days until the voting phase of this election concludes, that is not a bad spot to be in for Democrats after they lost the state in 2016 for the first time since 1984.

NOTE: 

A description of the methodology behind the graduated weighted average of 2020 state-level polling that FHQ uses for these projections can be found here.

The Electoral College Spectrum1
DC-3 VT-3 (6)2	IL-20 (162)	WI-10 (253)	AK-3 (125)	TN-11 (60)
MA-11 (17)	OR-7 (169)	PA-203 (273 | 285)	MO-10 (122)	KY-8 (49)
MD-10 (27)	NJ-14 (183)	NV-6 (279 | 265)	SC -9 (112)	SD-3 (41)
HI-4 (31)	ME-2 (185)	FL-29 (308 | 259)	MT-3 NE CD1-1 (103)	AL-9 (38)
NY-29 (60)	CO-9 (194)	AZ-11 (319 | 230)	KS-6 (99)	ID-4 (29)
CA-55 (115)	VA-13 (207)	NC-15 ME CD2-1 (335 | 219)	NE-2 (93)	AR-6 (25)
DE-3 (118)	NH-4 (211)	GA-16 (351 | 203)	IN-11 (91)	OK-7 (19)
WA-12 (130)	NM-5 (216)	IA-6 (187)	UT-6 (80)	ND-3 (12)
ME CD1-1 CT-7 (138)	MN-10 (226)	OH-18 (181)	MS-6 (74)	WV-5 (9)
RI-4 (142)	NE CD2-1 MI-16 (243)	TX-38 (163)	LA-8 (68)	WY-3 NE CD3-1 (4)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. 2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Pennsylvania (Biden's toss up states plus the Pennsylvania), he would have 285 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Biden's number is on the left and Trump's is on the right in bold italics. 3 Pennsylvania is the state where Biden crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election, the tipping point state. The tipping point cell is shaded in yellow to denote that and the font color is adjusted to attempt to reflect the category in which the state is.

As the race for the White House begins its last full week little changed at FHQ. The map looks just as it did a day ago and so, too, does the Watch List below. Texas may be approaching inclusion on the List, but it is not there yet. On the Electoral College Spectrum, none of the battlegrounds yielded their positions in the order. However, South Dakota did trade slots with Alabama, moving one spot closer in the order to the partisan line. 

9 days to go.

Where things stood at FHQ on October 25 (or close to it) in...
2016
2012
2008


--
NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Biden and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.

The Watch List1
State	Potential Switch
Georgia	from Toss Up Biden	to Toss Up Trump
Iowa	from Toss Up Trump	to Toss Up Biden
Nevada	from Toss Up Biden	to Lean Biden
New Hampshire	from Strong Biden	to Lean Biden
New Mexico	from Strong Biden	to Lean Biden
Ohio	from Toss Up Trump	to Toss Up Biden
Pennsylvania	from Lean Biden	to Toss Up Biden
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

--
Methodological Note: In past years, FHQ has tried some different ways of dealing with states with no polls or just one poll in the early rounds of these projections. It does help that the least polled states are often the least competitive. The only shortcoming is that those states may be a little off in the order in the Spectrum. In earlier cycles, a simple average of the state's three previous cycles has been used. But in 2016, FHQ strayed from that and constructed an average swing from 2012 to 2016 that was applied to states. That method, however, did little to prevent anomalies like the Kansas poll that had Clinton ahead from biasing the averages. In 2016, the early average swing in the aggregate was  too small to make much difference anyway. For 2020, FHQ has utilized an average swing among states that were around a little polled state in the rank ordering on election day in 2016. If there is just one poll in Delaware in 2020, for example, then maybe it is reasonable to account for what the comparatively greater amount of polling tells us about the changes in Connecticut, New Jersey and New Mexico. Or perhaps the polling in Iowa, Mississippi and South Carolina so far tells us a bit about what may be happening in Alaska where no public polling has been released. That will hopefully work a bit better than the overall average that may end up a bit more muted.


--
Related posts:

The Electoral College Map (10/24/20)

The Electoral College Map (10/23/20)

The Electoral College Map (10/22/20)

Follow FHQ on Twitter, Instagram and Facebook or subscribe by Email.

The Electoral College Map (10/24/20)

Update for October 24.

On the last day before the countdown to November 3 ticks down below ten days there were more leftover polls from Friday than new weekend poll releases. But those leftovers from Friday were conducted by a variety of pollsters on behalf of the center-right American Action Forum in Arizona, Georgia, Iowa, Michigan and Ohio and collectively were a good set of polls for the president. Across those five states, the margins moved in Trump's direction in all of them but Michigan. [The margin in Georgia would have shifted in Biden's direction too if not for the Landmark Communications poll that was also added today.] However, in the two states -- Montana and Pennsylvania -- where there were Saturday poll releases, the margins moved in the former vice president's direction.

On to the polls... 

Polling Quick Hits:

Arizona

(Biden 48, Trump 48)

[Current FHQ margin: Biden +2.88]

In Arizona, the margin dipped below Biden +3 for the first time since Arizona and North Carolina were on a trajectory to converge earlier in the summer. That same sort of trend seems more likely to replicate itself now given the recent polling conducted in the Grand Canyon state. Basswood Research in an early October poll found the race knotted at 48 and was virtually unchanged from the firm's August poll that had Trump ahead 48-47. Both polls are a bit more Trump-favorable than other recent surveys, and that is almost all a function of the Trump side of the equation. Biden's position in both polls is consistent with the 48 percent average share of support the former vice president has established there. That consistency contrasts with a Trump share in these surveys that has him running about three points ahead of his average share.

Georgia

(Trump 49, Biden 45 via Landmark Communications | Biden 49, Trump 45 via Opinion Insight)

[Current FHQ margin: Biden +0.14]

The two polls out of the Peach state tell different stories. The update in the Landmark Communications series of polls saw Trump's lead expand since the firm's early October poll, but this series has consistently shown the president ahead with one exception in late September. And both candidates have tended to be in the mid-40s with the president pushing close to the upper 40s in most. And given that Georgia is a 47-47 (rounded) tie at FHQ, this poll has Trump toward the top of his range in recent polls while Biden is at the bottom end of his. The Opinion Insight survey is an update to an early September poll that found the race tied at 46. The take away from both of these polls is that both are in line with a predictable range of variation from poll to poll, all operating around a race tied in the mid- to upper 40s. 

Iowa

(Biden 47, Trump 45)

[Current FHQ margin: Trump +0.80]

Opinion Insight was also in the field in the Hawkeye state in both early September and again in early October. Between them, the two Iowa polls represent the largest shift on the day, moving from Trump +7 in September to Biden +2 within the last few weeks. And of the two, the more recent one is more in line with the overall FHQ average in the state. Trump leads 47-46 (rounded) at FHQ and although he trails in the most recent Opinion Insight survey, both candidates ended up well within their ranges of support in recent Iowa polling. Of the 11 polls conducted there in October, Biden has led or been tied in nine of them. Trump still holds the advantage in the Hawkeye state in FHQ's graduated weighted average, but this month the trajectory of change has been in the former vice president's direction.

Michigan

(Biden 51, Trump 42)

[Current FHQ margin: Biden +7.01]
The final pair of Opinion Insight polls for American Action Forum was conducted in Michigan, and again, these were the most favorable of the bunch toward the Democratic nominee. But as in Georgia and Iowa, the movement is toward Biden from September to October. Biden's 50-44 advantage in September grew, but the earlier poll was more consistent with where FHQ currently has the race for the Great Lakes state's 16 electoral votes (Biden 50-43) but not not by much. Michigan continues to be a state where polling of late has most often found the race in the Biden +6-9 range.

Montana

(Trump 50, Biden 46)

[Current FHQ margin: Trump +8.15]

This is the first RMG Research survey of Montana in calendar 2020 and it matches the most narrow margin in Treasure state polling all year. But as is typical in those types of polls, the president lags about five points behind his 2016 showing in the state around 50 percent while Biden tends to rise into the mid-40s, above his average share of support (43 percent) at FHQ. 

Ohio

(Trump 48, Biden 47) 

[Current FHQ margin: Trump +0.80]

Over in the Buckeye state, OnMessage Inc. in another pair of polls conducted for American Action Forum also found movement toward Biden from its September poll to the early October survey. The 51-45 lead the president had then has shrunk to a one point advantage for Trump now and is more in line with the 47-46 edge Trump has in the FHQ averages. This is another series where the latest survey has drawn closer to the established average shares of support the candidates hold in Ohio.

Pennsylvania

(Biden 51, Trump 44)

[Current FHQ margin: Biden +5.42]

Finally, in Pennsylvania, Gravis Marketing condutcted a survey that ended up looking exactly like the Muhlenberg poll from yesterday. But that was representative of a shift in Biden's direction since the firm was last in the field in the Keystone state back in July. Then, the race was 48-45, Biden, but that advantage has stretched in the months since then but the president has mainly remained stationary in the mid-40s as the former vice president has pushed up into the low-50s. And that would likely kill the president's chances at reelection. Pennsylvania more than five points away from Trump is and has been a red flag for a while now at FHQ. 

NOTE: 

A description of the methodology behind the graduated weighted average of 2020 state-level polling that FHQ uses for these projections can be found here.

The Electoral College Spectrum1
DC-3 VT-3 (6)2	IL-20 (162)	WI-10 (253)	AK-3 (125)	TN-11 (60)
MA-11 (17)	OR-7 (169)	PA-203 (273 | 285)	MO-10 (122)	KY-8 (49)
MD-10 (27)	NJ-14 (183)	NV-6 (279 | 265)	SC -9 (112)	AL-9 (41)
HI-4 (31)	ME-2 (185)	FL-29 (308 | 259)	MT-3 NE CD1-1 (103)	SD-3 (32)
NY-29 (60)	CO-9 (194)	AZ-11 (319 | 230)	KS-6 (99)	ID-4 (29)
CA-55 (115)	VA-13 (207)	NC-15 ME CD2-1 (335 | 219)	NE-2 (93)	AR-6 (25)
DE-3 (118)	NH-4 (211)	GA-16 (351 | 203)	IN-11 (91)	OK-7 (19)
WA-12 (130)	NM-5 (216)	IA-6 (187)	UT-6 (80)	ND-3 (12)
ME CD1-1 CT-7 (138)	MN-10 (226)	OH-18 (181)	MS-6 (74)	WV-5 (9)
RI-4 (142)	NE CD2-1 MI-16 (243)	TX-38 (163)	LA-8 (68)	WY-3 NE CD3-1 (4)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. 2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Pennsylvania (Biden's toss up states plus the Pennsylvania), he would have 285 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Biden's number is on the left and Trump's is on the right in bold italics. 3 Pennsylvania is the state where Biden crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election, the tipping point state. The tipping point cell is shaded in yellow to denote that and the font color is adjusted to attempt to reflect the category in which the state is.

Today brought a smaller number of polls but few changes as well. Importantly, Iowa and Ohio swapped spots on the Electoral College Spectrum with Iowa shifting closer to the partisan line. The same was true for Montana and Nebraska's first congressional district. Montana pushed past the district in uncompetitive Nebraska and closer to the partisan line. However, neither is in any danger of changing sides. But should a landslide happen FHQ is there to provide context. 

The map and Watch List remained the same as they were a day ago.

10 days to go.

Where things stood at FHQ on October 24 (or close to it) in...
2016
2012
2008


--
NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Biden and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.

The Watch List1
State	Potential Switch
Georgia	from Toss Up Biden	to Toss Up Trump
Iowa	from Toss Up Trump	to Toss Up Biden
Nevada	from Toss Up Biden	to Lean Biden
New Hampshire	from Strong Biden	to Lean Biden
New Mexico	from Strong Biden	to Lean Biden
Ohio	from Toss Up Trump	to Toss Up Biden
Pennsylvania	from Lean Biden	to Toss Up Biden
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

--
Methodological Note: In past years, FHQ has tried some different ways of dealing with states with no polls or just one poll in the early rounds of these projections. It does help that the least polled states are often the least competitive. The only shortcoming is that those states may be a little off in the order in the Spectrum. In earlier cycles, a simple average of the state's three previous cycles has been used. But in 2016, FHQ strayed from that and constructed an average swing from 2012 to 2016 that was applied to states. That method, however, did little to prevent anomalies like the Kansas poll that had Clinton ahead from biasing the averages. In 2016, the early average swing in the aggregate was  too small to make much difference anyway. For 2020, FHQ has utilized an average swing among states that were around a little polled state in the rank ordering on election day in 2016. If there is just one poll in Delaware in 2020, for example, then maybe it is reasonable to account for what the comparatively greater amount of polling tells us about the changes in Connecticut, New Jersey and New Mexico. Or perhaps the polling in Iowa, Mississippi and South Carolina so far tells us a bit about what may be happening in Alaska where no public polling has been released. That will hopefully work a bit better than the overall average that may end up a bit more muted.


--
Related posts:

The Electoral College Map (10/23/20)

The Electoral College Map (10/22/20)

The Electoral College Map (10/21/20)

Follow FHQ on Twitter, Instagram and Facebook or subscribe by Email.

The Electoral College Map (10/22/20)

Update for October 22.

Changes (October 22)
State	Before	After
Georgia	Toss Up Trump	Toss Up Biden

Thursday was another one of those days. First, it is the day of the final presidential debate of the 2020 cycle, a little less than two weeks out from election day. But it was also another day with a massive batch of new polling data. And it was shaping up that way before the clock struck midnight to close Wednesday. FHQ added nine surveys to the dataset after yesterday's update posted but before the end of the day and then tacked on another 28 throughout the day on Thursday. 

Overall, it was a mixed bag in those 37 new polls across 17 states. The FHQ margin in eight of those states moved in the president's direction while Biden gained ground in the remaining nine. Curiously, the former vice president made most of his gains in red states. Of the seven red states represented in the surveys added today, only Ohio moved a hair in Trump's favor (while continuing to be on the Watch List). The rest, led by Georgia, shifted toward the Democratic nominee. And the Peach state, on the weight of a couple of new polls once again jumped the partisan line back onto Biden turf. 

With the former vice president chipping away at margins in red states, Trump was doing the same in blue states. Of the ten blues states with surveys added today, seven of them saw their margins shrink, benefitting the president. But Biden increased his leads in Colorado, Florida and Wisconsin. Again, it was a mixed bag, but the small shifts in each of these states were likely most significant in Arizona, where the margin in on the verge of slipping under Biden +3, and in Ohio where a couple of new surveys nudged the Buckeye a bit further away from the partisan line. 

Anyway, on to the polls... 

Polling Quick Hits:

Arizona

(Biden 50, Trump 46)

[Current FHQ margin: Biden +3.02]

It was not the update to the Ipsos series of surveys that triggered that downward movement in the margin in the Grand Canyon state. Instead, it was the Morning Consult survey (Trump +1, see below) showing the president in a rare lead in Arizona that drew the margin there closer. That Ipsos poll actually had Biden stretching his advantage, doubling it since last week and hitting 50 percent in the process. The poll also represented the widest margin in the series thus far. But again, that Morning Consult survey served as an overall drag on any gains there. 

California

(Biden 58, Trump 32)

[Current FHQ margin: Biden +29.07]

While the margin ticked down some in California, it is hardly something that is going to change the trajectory of the race for the largest electoral vote prize on the board. The new PPIC survey found Biden both under 60 percent and with a lead less than 30 points. The former is rare in 2020 but the former vice president has only led by 30 or more in a third of the California surveys conducted this year. But since the last PPIC survey last month, the margin has contracted some with Biden slipping under 60 percent and Trump inching up a point. In the grand scheme of things that really is not that big a change, and this poll well within the normal range of Golden state surveys. 

Florida

(Biden 51, Trump 46)

[Current FHQ margin: Biden +3.40]

If the Morning Consult survey in Arizona was a drag on the overall margin there, then the firm's Florida survey along with the new Ipsos update moved the needle in Biden's direction today. Both had the former vice president up by more than five points, and both also had the Democratic nominee up a point compared to the previous polls in both series and the president down a point. The effect was a widening of the margin in the Sunshine state, a move that has pushed Biden closer to an average share in the 50 percent range (albeit still short of that mark). And the last five surveys there have now found the former vice president at or above 50 percent. Florida is a must have in any likely Trump path to 270, and Biden closing in on the majority mark there is an ominous sign. 

Georgia

(Biden 51, Trump 44)

[Current FHQ margin: Biden +0.15]

Another state that had both a Morning Consult poll and an additional survey from a different pollster was Georgia. And it is probably the tie in the Morning Consult survey that is closer to the mark in the Peach state. The latest from Garin-Hart-Yang is at the top end of the range of Biden-friendly surveys, matching the seven point spread in the recent Quinnipiac survey of the state. Both of those polls also had Biden north of 50 percent, a rarity in Georgia, but not something that does not and has not happened in polling there this year. And it is new in the G-H-Y series. Biden's advantage in the Democratic pollster's July poll of Georgia also had Biden out to a lead (47-43) which was the extreme Biden end of the spectrum of poll results there at the time. The new poll, however, is not alone on that end this time. 

Kansas

(Trump 48, Biden 41)

[Current FHQ margin: Trump +8.94]

After a couple of new surveys came out of the Sunflower state a day ago, Siena/NYT Upshot added another new one in Kansas today. And while the pair yesterday both found the president up double digits there, the Siena survey was more in line with the established Kansas margin here at FHQ. However, it also found both candidates lagging behind their average shares in the state by two to three points. That remains something of an issue with these Siena polls as election day approaches. They all tend to have higher than normal shares of undecideds and support for minor party candidates than many other polls. That is true here as well. This is just the third time in a Kansas poll this year that Trump has been below 50 percent there. Things are closer in the Sunflower state in 2020 than in 2016, but the president has maintained a share above 50 percent the whole time. 

Michigan

(Biden 50, Trump 43 via Public Policy Polling | Biden 52, Trump 40 via Fox News | Trump 47, Biden 45 via Trafalgar Group | Biden 50, Trump 45 via Data for Progress)

[Current FHQ margin: Biden +7.11]
One of these new polls out in Michigan does not look like the other. And, as is often the case, it is the Trafalgar survey that stands out. Of the 112 surveys that have now been conducted in the Great Lakes state in calendar 2020, Trump has led in just seven of them. Four of those seven were surveys fielded by Trafalgar and the latest matches the president's largest lead in a Michigan poll all year. The other polls saw Biden expand his advantages since the last polls in the series with the exception of the Data for Progress survey where Trump rose a point from September. But all three are in range of recent polling in the state even if the Fox survey is at the very bottom of Trump's range in recent surveys.

Minnesota

(Biden 48, Trump 42)

[Current FHQ margin: Biden +8.30]
The latest update from Survey USA in Minnesota was probably more notable for how close the Senate race was than for the presidential race. This was a good sample for Republicans. Biden remained in the upper 40s but the president managed to push off the 40 percent mark where he had been in the previous two Survey USA polls of the Land of 10,000 Lakes. But this was the second straight from the firm in the state that saw the margin dip a little. For a state that was originally cited as a potential flip possibility by the president's reelection campaign, however, Minnesota remains a Lean Biden state and a Biden +6 is a pretty good survey for the president. 

Montana

(Trump 51, Biden 43)

[Current FHQ margin: Trump +8.56]

The first Strategies 360 poll in Montana this cycle is really quite close to the shares of support (and margin for that matter) both candidates have established in polling in the Treasure state thus far this year. At 52-43 (rounded), the president holds an edge, but one that like most red states is closer than it was in 2016. Trump is still around four points behind his 2016 pace while Biden has improved in polls on Clinton's showing on election day by more than eight points. It is an above average swing that this survey affirms. 

North Carolina

(Trump 49, Biden 48)

[Current FHQ margin: Biden +1.78]
There is not a whole lot one can say about this latest Pulse Opinion Research survey of North Carolina. Trump leads in the Tar Heel state have become more sporadic of late, and as this one does show a narrow advantage for the president, it represents no change from the firm's September poll in the state. In fact, all three surveys Pulse has conduced in North Carolina have had the president up by a point. It would be one thing if things were moving toward Trump in the series but absent any movement, this is yet more evidence of just how steady the race is in the state. 

Ohio

(Trump 48, Biden 45)

[Current FHQ margin: Trump +0.67]

That Pulse Opinion Research poll in North Carolina may not have shown any movement in the president's direction, but one piece of good news for Trump in the batch of polling released today was the swing from the last Fox News survey of the Buckeye state to its update there. Trump rose three points since the late September Fox poll of Ohio, but Biden dropped off by five points in the same span. As bad as the Fox Michigan poll was for the president, this Ohio survey represents the other end of the spectrum. And it is more consistent with the 47-46 (rounded) advantage Trump maintains in the FHQ averages in the state. 

Oklahoma

(Trump 59, Biden 37)

[Current FHQ margin: Trump +24.51]

Trump is going to win Oklahoma going away next month, but it continues to be a warning sign every time a new survey is released with the president under 60 percent there. That is the case in the new Sooner Poll. The president continues to run more than five points off his 2016 performance in 2020 Oklahoma polls with an average share that is just under 60 percent. Biden, meanwhile, is more than six points ahead of Clinton's pace there. It will not amount too much. Trump will still take the Sooner state's seven electoral votes, but the state remains a cautionary tale about how much things have swung toward the Democrats in 2020.

Pennsylvania

(Biden 51, Trump 46 via Public Policy Polling | Biden 52, Trump 46 via Civiqs)

[Current FHQ margin: Biden +5.38]

This is just the second survey PPP has conducted in Pennsylvania in all of 2020 and it is not markedly different from the 51-44 lead that the former vice president held there in April. The gap has closed some but not much and Biden is stationary above 50 percent. Civiqs has been more active in the state, but only now dumped a six survey series that has run from February to now. The latest numbers are posted above with a link to all six polls, but for the purposes of keeping this brief, FHQ will focus on the change from the last poll in June to now. Contrary to the PPP series, it was the president who was stationary at 46 percent from that June poll to now as Biden added three points and pushed above 50 percent. Like a number of other blue states of the medium shade, the polls with Biden over 50 percent are starting to pile up. 

 

Virginia

(Biden 52, Trump 41)

[Current FHQ margin: Biden +11.82]

Like the Montana poll above, the new WaPo/George Mason survey of Virginia is also the first poll the firm has fielded in the state this cycle. It is also in line with the average shares both candidates have maintained in the Old Dominion through much of the year. Currently at FHQ, Biden has a 53-41 (rounded) lead in the commonwealth. And while that is a considerably wider margin than one might expect for a state that was a battleground for many of the 21st century presidential cycles, it has had a below average shift in the 2020 polls compared to the results in 2016. Biden is just two points out in from of Clinton's showing and Trump lags around his average amount -- roughly three points -- behind his performance there four years ago. Together, even that makes Virginia a surprising Strong Biden state,

Wisconsin

(Biden 48, Trump 44 via Fox News | Biden 50, Trump 44 via RMG Research)

[Current FHQ margin: Biden +6.19]

The new RMG Research survey of Wisconsin is its first in the Badger state in 2020 and falls in line with the established averages in the state. The race currently stands at 49-43 (rounded) with Biden ahead. So it was not that poll that shifted the average margin in Wisconsin up on the day. It was not the Fox News poll either, where the former vice president saw his 50-42 lead from the early September Fox poll cut in half in that time. As was the case with Arizona at the outset, it was the Morning Consult poll (Biden +12, see below) that did the heavy lifting, nudging the Democratic nominee's share of support closer to 50 percent. But for all the back and forth among just these three polls, Wisconsin remains in that Biden +6 range as it has for quite a while now. 

Morning Consult (second October extended battleground wave)

South Carolina: 

Trump 51, Biden 45 (Biden +3, Trump -3 since early October wave) [Current FHQ margin: Trump +6.71]

Ohio: 

Trump 49, Biden 47 (Biden +1, Trump +/-0)

Arizona: 

Trump 48, Biden 47 (Biden -2, Trump +2)

Georgia: 

Biden 48, Trump 48 (Biden +1, Trump -1)

Texas: 

Biden 48, Trump 47 (Biden +1, Trump -2) [Current FHQ margin: Trump +1.51]

North Carolina: 

Biden 50, Trump 47 (Biden +/-0, Trump +1)

Florida: 

Biden 52, Trump 45 (Biden +1, Trump -1)

Michigan: 

Biden 52, Trump 44 (Biden +1, Trump +/-0)

Pennsylvania: 

Biden 52, Trump 43 (Biden +/-0, Trump -1)

Minnesota: 

Biden 51, Trump 42 (Biden +1, Trump -2)

Wisconsin: 

Biden 54, Trump 42 (Biden +3, Trump -2)

Colorado: 

Biden 55, Trump 39 (Biden +1, Trump -1) [Current FHQ margin: Biden +12.87]

FHQ will be brief with this latest wave of Morning Consult polls from an extended group of battleground states (Senate and/or presidential). The big thing is that ten of the 12 states moved in Biden's direction in the last week. Even with Arizona standing out as one that moved toward Trump, the Grand Canyon state continues to be in the Biden column. But looking at this group in sequence from the most Trump to the most Biden (as it is aligned above), the order is off from that depicted in the Electoral College Spectrum below. Arizona and Wisconsin are probably the most of sequence and on opposite ends of this truncated rank ordering from Morning Consult. That said, that Biden is at or above 50 percent in seven of these states -- states that would put him well above 270 electoral votes even without Arizona -- is the most notable aspect of this updated wave. 

NOTE: A description of the methodology behind the graduated weighted average of 2020 state-level polling that FHQ uses for these projections can be found here.

The Electoral College Spectrum1
DC-3 VT-3 (6)2	IL-20 (162)	WI-10 (253)	AK-3 (125)	TN-11 (60)
MA-11 (17)	OR-7 (169)	PA-203 (273 | 285)	MO-10 (122)	KY-8 (49)
MD-10 (27)	NJ-14 (183)	NV-6 (279 | 265)	SC -9 (112)	AL-9 (41)
HI-4 (31)	ME-2 (185)	FL-29 (308 | 259)	NE CD1-1 MT-3 (103)	SD-3 (32)
NY-29 (60)	CO-9 (194)	AZ-11 (319 | 230)	KS-6 (99)	ID-4 (29)
CA-55 (115)	VA-13 (207)	NC-15 ME CD2-1 (335 | 219)	NE-2 (93)	AR-6 (25)
DE-3 (118)	NH-4 (211)	GA-16 (351 | 203)	IN-11 (91)	OK-7 (19)
WA-12 (130)	NM-5 (216)	OH-18 (187)	UT-6 (80)	ND-3 (12)
ME CD1-1 CT-7 (138)	MN-10 (226)	IA-6 (169)	MS-6 (74)	WV-5 (9)
RI-4 (142)	NE CD2-1 MI-16 (243)	TX-38 (163)	LA-8 (68)	WY-3 NE CD3-1 (4)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. 2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Pennsylvania (Biden's toss up states plus the Pennsylvania), he would have 285 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Biden's number is on the left and Trump's is on the right in bold italics. 3 Pennsylvania is the state where Biden crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election, the tipping point state. The tipping point cell is shaded in yellow to denote that and the font color is adjusted to attempt to reflect the category in which the state is.

Obviously the Georgia change to Toss Up Biden looms large over things in today's update, but it change on the map and the Watch List did not translate into a move on the Spectrum. Yes, the Peach state hopped the partisan line and turned blue, but that is probably best described as the partisan line jumping Georgia. The Peach state changed colors but not positions in the order. Other than that, among the only other changes across the graphics today was California trading spots with New York on the Spectrum, moving a cell closer to the partisan line. And Kansas, a day after rejoining the Watch List came right back off it again, but only just barely. 

It is a pretty steady race. 12 days to go.

Where things stood at FHQ on October 22 (or close to it) in...
2016
2012
2008


--
NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Biden and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.

The Watch List1
State	Potential Switch
Georgia	from Toss Up Biden	to Toss Up Trump
Iowa	from Toss Up Trump	to Toss Up Biden
Nevada	from Toss Up Biden	to Lean Biden
New Hampshire	from Strong Biden	to Lean Biden
New Mexico	from Strong Biden	to Lean Biden
Ohio	from Toss Up Trump	to Toss Up Biden
Pennsylvania	from Lean Biden	to Toss Up Biden
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

--
Methodological Note: In past years, FHQ has tried some different ways of dealing with states with no polls or just one poll in the early rounds of these projections. It does help that the least polled states are often the least competitive. The only shortcoming is that those states may be a little off in the order in the Spectrum. In earlier cycles, a simple average of the state's three previous cycles has been used. But in 2016, FHQ strayed from that and constructed an average swing from 2012 to 2016 that was applied to states. That method, however, did little to prevent anomalies like the Kansas poll that had Clinton ahead from biasing the averages. In 2016, the early average swing in the aggregate was  too small to make much difference anyway. For 2020, FHQ has utilized an average swing among states that were around a little polled state in the rank ordering on election day in 2016. If there is just one poll in Delaware in 2020, for example, then maybe it is reasonable to account for what the comparatively greater amount of polling tells us about the changes in Connecticut, New Jersey and New Mexico. Or perhaps the polling in Iowa, Mississippi and South Carolina so far tells us a bit about what may be happening in Alaska where no public polling has been released. That will hopefully work a bit better than the overall average that may end up a bit more muted.


--
Related posts:

The Electoral College Map (10/21/20)

The Electoral College Map (10/20/20)

The Electoral College Map (10/19/20)

Follow FHQ on Twitter, Instagram and Facebook or subscribe by Email.