A Late Start for New Hampshire 2012: Pawlenty will be the First

One bit of news that made the rounds today is that Minnesota governor, Tim Pawlenty, will be heading up to the Granite state next month to keynote a fund-raiser for the Republican Senate Majority Committee PAC. So what, you might ask? Well, Pawlenty's visit will be the first of the potential 2012 Republicans to make an appearance in New Hampshire. Does that mean Pawlenty is running for president? No, but he is. Pawlenty is running for 2012, but if he is going to run in 2012 has yet to be determined.

That, though, isn't why we're here. Sure, it's interesting, but something else is interests FHQ about this visit. It is late. Now, we've recently heard quite a bit of chatter online about Republicans skipping out on Iowa in 2012 because the state's Republican caucusgoers are likely to support a more socially conservative candidate. That's hogwash, and I'll shunt it to the side for the purposes of this discussion. However, what was part and parcel of that argument was the fact that Republican candidates not visiting the Hawkeye state was an indicator of this potential problem. What everyone -- FHQ included -- seemingly failed to check on was whether candidates were making stops in the presidential primary process's other first in the nation state, New Hampshire.

Well, as of December 16, Pawlenty will be the first in the 2012 cycle. How does that stack up with the number of visits to the Granite state at this point ahead of the 2008 election? For the GOP, there were already 22 visits from prospective Republican candidates for president. On the Democratic side there had already been 13 visits by that point in 2005. [See below for full list of 2005 candidate visits to New Hampshire.]

However, as I pointed out in the Iowa visits discussion, 2008 may not be the best comparison. Both parties had active nomination and interest in the presidential race was at an unusually fevered pitch earlier than usual. The better comparison, then may be how frequently Democrats were visiting the Granite state in 2001, before the 2004 campaign. Yes, there is a difference in party in that comparison, but the underlying dynamic is the same: incumbent president and one active, out-party nomination race.

And how often were potential 2004 Democratic presidential candidates heading up to the snowy environs of New Hampshire? Allow me to channel my inner Ed Rooney: nine times. Well, that count only includes the visits to this point (November 12) in the 2004 campaign. If you extend that to the time at which Pawlenty's visit is scheduled, that number grows by three visits to 12. [See below for full list of 2001 candidate visits to New Hampshire.]

What does all of this mean? Not that much actually. Well, other than the fact that the prospective 2012 Republican presidential candidates are off to a slower start than the candidates before the 2004 and 2008 elections. Is that a name recognition thing? Romney certainly benefits from having run there before and because of his time spent as governor of neighboring Massachusetts. Huckabee, too, has run in the Granite state before. However, his organizational infrastructure there paled in comparison to his Iowa effort in 2008. The New Hampshire Huckabee campaign was more ad hoc in nature. And Palin? Well, Sarah Palin is Sarah Palin. People know who she is. But for someone playing catch-up, visiting New Hampshire and Iowa and any other place you can go is likely a shrewd move. For someone like Pawlenty, it never hurts to say you were the first (or more to the point, that you were there early and often).


______________________________
2001 Democratic Visits to New Hampshire (via P2004)

-In his capacity as recruitment chair for the DGA, Gov. Dean met separately with likely Democratic gubernatorial candidates Bev Hollingsworth, Mark Fernald and Jim Normand in Concord, NH on December 19, 2001.

Rep. Gephardt visited NH on December 15, 2001; his schedule included events with 1st district congressional candidate Martha Fuller Clark: a brunch at the home of Harlow and Barbara Carpenter in Kensington (SE Rockingham County), a walk-around in Portsmouth, a meeting with New Hampshire Young Democrats and a holiday party "to ring in the New Year and a New Congress!," both at the Millyard Museum in Manchester.

On December 6, 2001, Sen. Kerry did a fundraiser for Manchester Democrats in Manchester, NH.

Sen. Lieberman visited NH in the first week of November 2001. On the evening of November 3 he arrived at Berlin-Milan Airport and spoke at the Coos County Democrats' Truman Dinner at the Town & Country Motor Inn in Shelburne. On November 4 he attended a fundraiser brunch for the New Hampshire Democratic Senate Caucus at the home of Sen. Sylvia Larsen in Concord, a fundraiser for the Committee to Elect House Democrats at the home of Rep. Bette Lasky in Nashua, a roundtable with students at St. Anselm College in Goffstown, and a rally with Gov. Jeanne Shaheen, Mayor Bob Baines, Rep. Martha Fuller Clark and Manchester Democratic candidates at the Sweeney Post on Maple Street in Manchester. (November 3-4, 2001)

On October 26, 2001, Sen. Kerry did a fundraiser for Manchester Mayor Bob Baines in Manchester, NH.

Former Vice President Gore headlined the New Hampshire Democratic Party's "Celebrating Our Democracy" Jefferson Jackson Dinner at the Center of New Hampshire Holiday in in Manchester, NH on October 27, 2001; the next day he did a fundraiser at a restaurant for Manchester Mayor Bob Baines. As he had in Iowa, Gore made an unpublicized drive around the state. On the evening of October 22, he joined Sen. Beverly Hollingworth at Lamies in Hampton (Concord Monitor). Early the next morning found him in Berlin, he then headed south for Concord and ended up on the Seacoast, dining with friends and supporters at the Rusty Hammer in Portsmouth (Concord Monitor). Gore left the state on October 24 for Maine, and returned for the speech. (October 22-23 and 27-28).

Sen. Kerry keynoted the NH AFL-CIO convention in North Conway and was the special guest at the Merrimack County Democrats Harvest Dinner at Pembroke Academy in NH on October 13, 2001.

Rep. Kaptur visited NH on October 13, 2001, speaking at the state's AFL-CIO convention and meeting with campaign finance reform activists.

In August 2001, Rev. Al Sharpton announced a freedom bus tour of NH for early October 2001, however that was put off.

Sen. Kerry did two events in NH on August 5, 2001, a meet-and-greet for state representative candidate Mary Tetreau at Marilyn Hoffman's house in Londonderry (Kerry revealed his poetic skills, reading a poem of his own composition) and a fundraiser for Manchester Mayor Bob Baines at Donna Soucy's house in Manchester. [Tetreau lost the August 14 special election in a Republican stronghold by less than 300 votes].

Rep. Gephardt made a trip to NH on behalf of state Democrats on June 8-9, 2001. On June 8 he was the featured speaker at the annual Cheshire County Democratic dinner in Keene. On June 9 he appeared, with Gov. Shaheen, at a Rockingham/Strafford County continental breakfast in Portsmouth; the Merrimack County Democrats' Annual Pig Roast & Pot Luck Picnic at the home of Beth Walz and Harry Judd in Bow (again w/ Shaheen); and the Manchester City Democrats' Flag Day Celebration at the Manchester Millyard Museum.

Sen. Feingold visited NH on April 23, 2001, in a trip that was primarily focused on appearances in Maine with Sen. Collins. He toured Timberland footwear, met with Gov. Shaheen, and spoke with College Democrats at the University of New Hampshire.

Sen. Biden visited Manchester, NH on March 25, 2001 at the invitation of state Sen. Lou D'Allesandro. He spoke at the Manchester Democratic committee's 4th annual St. Patrick's breakfast ($25/plate fundraiser), marched in the St. Patrick's Day parade, and visited the VA Hospital.

______________________________
2005 Republican Visits to New Hampshire (via P2008)

>Gov. George Pataki visited NH on December 14, 2005; he did some interviews and private meetings and attended the NH Republican Party's Christmas Party at the Upham Walker House in Concord. [speech]

>Gov. Mitt Romney was a special guest at the Manchester Republican Committee's Annual Holiday Celebration at the Wayfarer Inn in Bedford, NH on the evening of December 7, 2005.

>Sen. Bill Frist did several private events in NH on December 6, 2005. Frist met with legislative leaders at the Capitol in Concord; had lunch with the New Hampshire Republican State Committee's executive committee at the law offices of Rath Young and Pignatelli in Concord; visited the Devine Millimet and Branch law firm in Manchester; and attended a reception with several local Republican activists and friends from his days at Harvard Medical School and Mass. General at the 100 Club in Portsmouth.

>Gov. George Pataki campaigned with Manchester mayoral candidate Frank Guinta in Manchester, NH on October 23, 2005, going door to door and doing a fundraiser at the home of Sharyn Kelley.

>Sen. George Allen visited NH on October 15, 2005. He attended a breakfast fundraiser at the invitation of Oracle PAC at Seedling Cafe in Nashua; spoke at a Stratham Republican Committee reception at the home of Phil ? Anne Caparso in Stratham; and helped kick off the NH Republican State Committee's Founders Program (new major donor program) at the home of Wayne Semprini in New Castle.

>Sen. Sam Brownback spoke at the New Hampshire Institute of Politics at Saint Anslem College in Manchester, NH on October 11-12, 2005. On the evening of October 11 he held a town meeting attended by members of the public, faculty and students. On October 12 he gave a guest lecture in an Introduction to Politics class and another class.

>Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich visited NH on October 7, 2005. Arriving from Vermont he overnighted in Hanover on October 6, then traveled to Concord. Here he met privately with Harry Levine (the co-founder of Victory NH), met with the Republican Alliance (the House conservative caucus), and had lunch in the Speaker's office with the House Speaker, the Governor, the senate President, the deputy Speaker, and Amb. Joseph and Augusta Petrone. Gingrich spoke to legislators and members of the public in Representatives Hall at the State House. While in Concord he stopped by Republican headquarters, the AARP office, and Charlie Bass' congressional office. Proceeding to Manchester, Gingrich spoke to a group of college students at the UNH Manchester campus organized by Prof. Mark Wrighton.

>Rep. Tom Tancredo visited NH on September 25-26, 2005. On September 25 he delivered the keynote speech at the New Hampshire Center for Constitutional Studies, Inc.'s 9th Annual Dinner Celebration in honor of Constitution Day at Grappone Center in Concord; and on the morning of September 26 he appeared at the Bedford Republican Committee Annual Breakfast at CR Sparks in Bedford.

>Gov. Mitt Romney hosted an afternoon fundraising reception for the New Hampshire Republican State Committee at his home on Lake Winnipesaukee in Wolfeboro, NH on September 17, 2005.

>Gov. Mike Huckabee visited NH on August 27, 2005. At the Radisson Center of New Hampshire in Manchester he did a photo op with New Hampshire Young Republicans doing a voter registration drive; attended a NHRSC Issues ? Answers Series breakfast at the Radisson Center of New Hampshire; and did a media roundtable with members of the New Hampshire and Arkansas media. He spoke at the Nashua Republican City Committee's Steak Out at the Alpine Club in Hollis (substituting for Gov. Romney who had bowed out); attended the Strafford County Republican Picnic/Pig Roast at Three River Farm in Dover [speech]; did a book signing at the Barnes ? Noble in Newington; stopped in at the Seacoast Irish Festival at Dover Elks Lodge in Dover; and attended a reception at the home of Turner and Wendy Stanley Jones in Durham.

>Gov. Mitt Romney had been scheduled to attend the Nashua Republican City Committee Steakout in Nashua, NH on August 27, 2005 but cancelled a few days before the event citing a family commitment.

>Gov. Mitt Romney held an "intimate gathering" with about a dozen leading New Hampshire Republicans at his home on Lake Winnipesaukee in Wolfeboro, NH on August 14, 2005. Source: The Union Leader's John DiStaso (The Granite Status, 8/18)

>Sen. George Allen addressed the NH Federation of Republican Women's Lilac Luncheon at the Radisson Center of New Hampshire in Manchester, NHon June 25, 2005. [speech]

>Rep. Tom Tancredo visited NH on June 11, 2005. He addressed a NHRSC Issues ? Answers Series breakfast at the Holiday Inn in Concord, delivered the commencement speech at Nashua Christian High School, and spoke at a Nashua City Committee reception at Langdon Place in Nashua.

>Gov. Mitt Romney was the featured speaker at the NH Federation of Republican Women's Lilac Dinner at the Radisson Center of New Hampshire in Manchester, NHon June 3, 2005. [speech]

>Sen. George Allen held two fundraisers for his re-election campaign, one at the Bedford Village Inn in Bedford and the other also in the Manchester area, in a quiet trip to NH on May 3, 2005.

>Sen. Chuck Hagel visited NH on May 2-4, 2005. On the evening of May 2 he attended the Manchester Republican Committee's Second Annual Springtime Reception at the home of B.J. Perry. On May 3 he spoke to students at the New Hampshire Institute of Politics at Saint Anselm College; stopped to meet with Republican legislators at the State Capitol in Concord; spoke to students at Plymouth State College; and in the evening received an award for "leadership in public communication" from the Franklin Pierce College Marlin Fitzwater Center at the College's Manchester campus. On May 4 he spoke at the "Politics and Eggs" breakfast in Bedford[speech]; spoke to students at New England College in Henniker; and stopped in at the Union Leader. State Sen. Bob Odell (R-Lempster), a longtime acquaintance, helped organize the trip.

>Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich visited NH on April 18-19, 2005. On April 18 he did a signing to promote his book "Winning the Future" at the Barnes ? Noble bookstore in Manchester; met with the Concord Monitor ed board; spoke to a Republican grassroots group called Victory New Hampshire > at the New Hampshire Institute of Politics in Goffstown; met with the Manchester Union Leader ed board; taped an interview for New England Cable News; did a fundraising reception for the state party at C.R. Sparks in Bedford; and appeared live on Fox News Channel's "Hannity ? Colmes." On April 19 in Hanover Gingrich did an ed board meeting with the Upper Valley News; did a signing to promote his book at the Dartmouth Bookstore; lectured in Prof. Jeffrey Smith's government class; did an interview with the Dartmouth Review; spoke in the living room at Sigma Alpha Epsilon as part of the Andrew J. Scarlett Lecture Series; and spoke the Upper Valley Republican Club at a lunch at Jesse's Restaurant. He then proceeded to Harvard in Cambridge, MA.

>Sen. Sam Brownback spoke at the "True Blue Breakfast" sponsored by the Concord-based Cornerstone Policy Research at the Radisson Center of New Hampshire in Manchester, NH on April 16, 2005. (Note Brownback was in the region to deliver a speech on cloning and stem cell research at the Harvard Law School Society for Law, Life, and Religion spring symposium on April 15).

>Sen. Bill Frist spoke at the Merrimack County Lincoln Day Dinner at Grappone Conference Center in Concord, NH on March 18, 2005. On March 19, 2005 he spoke at a Grafton County Republican breakfast at Plymouth Senior Center and a Nashua Republican luncheon at the Crowne Plaza in Nashua.

>Sen. Bill Frist delivered the keynote speech at the Manchester Republican Committee Lincoln-Reagan Dinner at The Executive Court Conference Center in Manchester, NH on March 4, 2005. [speech] He spoke at a Cheshire County Breakfast at the Keene Country Club in Keene on March 5, 2005.

>Rep. Tom Tancredo, accompanied by Angela "Bay" Buchanan and New Hampshire activist Paul Nagy, visited NH on February 3-4, 2005; the trip focused on immigration reform (Buchanan is chairperson and Tancredo is founding chairman of Team America, a PAC focused on illegal immigration). On February 3 they presented an American Patriot Award to New Ipswich Police Chief Garrett Chamberlain in New Ipswich; stopped for lunch at the Merrimack Restaurant in Manchester; spent a couple of hours at the Union Leader; did a live in-studio radio interview on Gardner Goldsmith's "Against the Grain" show at WGIR-AM in Manchester; and had dinner with conservative leaders at CR Sparks in Bedford. On February 4 they had breakfast with a group of New Hampshire House members; attended a Team America reception held in conjunction with the Nashua Republican Women's Club at a condominium complex in Nashua; and spoke at Nashua Christian High School. They then proceeded to Boston, MA.

2004
>Sen. John McCainwas first to venture into NH, albeit briefly; he addressed the second annual Nackey S. Loeb First Amendment Award dinner in Manchester on November 18, 2004.

______________________________
2005 Democratic Visits to New Hampshire (via P2008)

>Gov. Mark Warner visited NH on November 18, 2005. He arrived in Nashua late on the night of November 17 (earlier that day he spoke on education at Harvard's Institute of Politics). On November 18 he participated in an education roundtable with Gov. Lynch at Nashua High School South, focusing on at-risk youth and dropout prevention; and spoke at a NH Senate Democratic Caucus lunch at Puritan Backroom Restaurant in Manchester. [speech]

>Sen. John Kerry helped kick off GOTV weekend with Mayor Bob Baines at Manchester City Democrats' headquarters on Elm Street in Manchester, NH on the morning of November 5, 2005.

>Sen. Joe Biden spoke at a fundraiser for Mayor Bob Baines hosted by the New Hampshire Building & Construction Trades Council at the Alpine Club in Manchester on November 1, 2005.

>Sen. Evan Bayh visited NH on October 29-30, 2005. On October 29 he keynoted the NHDP's Jefferson-Jackson Day dinner fundraiser at the Center of New Hampshire Radisson Hotel in Manchester. [speech] On October 30 he held a town hall meeting with students and local residents at New England College in Henniker; held a town hall meeting organized by State Rep. Jim Ryan at The Golden Crest in Franklin; and campaigned with Mayor Bob Baines at the Puritan Backroom restaurant.

>Former Sen. John Edwards spoke at The Collis Center at Dartmouth College in Hanover, NH on October 21, 2005 as part of a two-week tour (Oct. 17-28) of 10 colleges and universities during which he launched the Center for Promise and Opportunity's "Opportunity Rocks." He and a group of students also did some repairs on a house prior to the speech.

>Sen. Russ Feingold visited NH on September 30-October 1, 2005. On September 30 he called in to "The Exchange" with Laura Knoy at NHPR (he had hoped to appear in studio but there were votes in the Senate); took a short walking tour of downtown Manchester with Mayor Bob Baines and did a press availability in the courtyard next to City Hall; met with New Hampshire political leaders at the SEIU office in Concord; met privately with Gov. Lynch at the Capitol; and keynoted the Rockingham County Democrats' first annual Eleanor Roosevelt Covered Dish Dinner at Epping American Legion Hall. [speech] On October 1 Feingold held a listening session in the Rockefeller Center at Dartmouth College in Hanover.

[>Sen. Joe Biden had planned to speak at the Cheshire Democratic Committee's annual spaghetti supper in NH in mid-September 2005, (reported by the The Union Leader's John DiStaso). However he changed his plans to focus on the Supreme Court nomination process following the resignation of Supreme Court Justice Sandra Day O'Connor and Bush's nomination of John Roberts].

[>Gov. Tom Vilsack had planned to attend the Seacoast Democratic Coalition annual Labor Day picnic (sponsored by the Hampton, North Hampton and Hampton Falls Democratic Committees) at Pitlochry Farm in Hampton Falls, NH on September 4, 2005. He canceled the trip to focus on coordinating Iowa's efforts to house evacuees from Hurricane Katrina, and instead delivered his speech to assembled activists by speakerphone].

>Sen. John Kerry attended a thank you barbecue at the home of State Sen. Sylvia Larsen in Concord, NH on August 23, 2005.

>Former Sen. John Edwards visited NH on July 29-31, 2005.
On July 29 he appeared at a birthday party/fundraiser for State Sen. Lou D'Allesandro at the American Legion Sweeney Post in Manchester.
On July 30 he was the special guest at the 11th annual Merrimack County Democrats Pig Roast and Potluck Picnic at the home of Rep. Mary Beth Walz and Selectman Harry Judd in Bow; attend Plymouth Democrats' Blue BBQ at Riverfront Park in Plymouth; and attended a Coos County Democratic fundraiser at the home of Elaine and Carl Belanger in Gorham.
On July 31 he attended a "Politics and Pie" event sponsored by Cheshire County Democrats at the Keene State College Camp on Wilson Pond in Swanzey.

[>Sen. John Kerry had planned to attend a thank you reunion/cookout with a group of supporters at the home of former state party chair Joe Keefe in Manchester, NH on the afternoon of July 29, 2005but the trip was cancelled due to Senate votes].

>Sen. Evan Bayh visited NH on July 10-11, 2005. On July 10 he did a meet and greet at Manchester City Democratic headquarters in Manchester; did a meet and greet at The Pub Restaurant in Keene; and held a fundraising event for the New Hampshire Senate Democratic Caucus at the home of Sen. Sylvia Larsen in Concord. On July 11 he appeared on "The Charlie Sherman Show" on WGIR in Manchester; appeared on "The Exchange" with Laura Knoy at NHPR in Concord; held a private meeting with Gov. Lynch in Concord; held a private meeting with the House Democratic leadership in Concord; held a private meeting with environmental leaders in Concord; and toured GT Equipment Technologies, a small manufacturer, in Merrimack.

>Former Sen. John Edwards spoke at a fundraiser for Senate Democrats at the Nashua Country Club in Nashua, NH on June 21, 2005.

>Gen. Wesley Clark (ret.) spoke at the Manchester City Democratic Committee's annual Flag Day dinner at the Radisson Hotel-Center of New Hampshire in Manchester, NH on June 12, 2005. [speech]

>Gov. Bill Richardson visited NH on June 7-8, 2005. On June 7 he spoke at a "Politics and Eggs" breakfast at the Bedford Village Inn in Bedford [speech]; at the Vision Hispana Latino Summit at Southern New Hampshire University in Manchester; at a fundraiser for the NHDP at the Common Man restaurant in Concord; and attended a private party at the Centennial Inn in Concord. On June 8 he started the day with a live radio interview with Charlie Sherman on WGIR; spoke to the Franco-American Club at America's Credit Union Museum in Manchester; did a live radio interview with Laura Knoy at NHPR in Concord; and addressed the Carroll County Democrats at the Grand Summit Hotel in Bartlett. Also during this trip Gov. Richardson held private meetings with officials of the NEA-New Hampshire, the State Employees Association of NH (SEIU Local 1984), the Teamsters, Gov. John Lynch and Manchester Mayor Robert Baines and, in Portsmouth, a group of workers from Portsmouth Naval Shipyard.

>Former Sen. John Edwards visited NH on February 4-5, 2005. On the evening of February 4 he attended a high school basketball game at Manchester West High School. On February 5 he met people at Manchester Community Health Center, met privately with Gov. Lynch, and was the "Very Special Guest" at the New Hampshire Democratic Party's 100 Club Dinner at the Center of New Hampshire in Manchester. [speech]


Recent Posts:
Do Even "Fairly" Drawn Congressional Districts Favor Republicans?

If it's a vote on the internet, Ron Paul wins.

Gallup Poll (Nov. '09): Huckabee Continues to Garner the Most Support

If it's a vote on the internet, Ron Paul wins.

I alluded to the 2012 trial heats last night, but Public Policy Polling has upped the ante today. Initially, PPP was taking suggestions for who to add to list of 3 possessors of recognized names* to poll against President Obama in the polling firm's monthly survey. Hey, we're all for democracy around these parts, but I will admit to being disappointed that they didn't keep Tim Pawlenty among the list of Republican candidates. One month of information doesn't tell us much. Well, it told us that more people had an opinion of the balloon boy than they did of Pawlenty. Still, FHQ would like to have seen the trendline.

[What? To see that it hadn't changed? Touche.]

Anyway, PPP has opened that fourth choice up to a vote. Your choices are:

[Click to Enlarge]

I'd like to see John Thune tested or Giuliani for the sake of having a more moderate Republican included, but honestly, Ron Paul needs to be polled. The chatter online in Ron Paul circles this year has been all about getting the Texas congressman in a poll. Well, here's their chance. Though, truth be told, if word gets out -- like other votes -- PPP's vote widget will either crash or end up being the highest turnout vote they've had over there for one of those.

So, go vote.

*I'm calling the group something and this gives Huckabee, Palin and Romney a regal air.


Recent Posts:
Gallup Poll (Nov. '09): Huckabee Continues to Garner the Most Support

40 Passes, 39 Used: What's Wrong with This Again?

FHQ Friday Fun: The Day Mitt Romney Came Back from the Dead

Gallup Poll (Nov. '09): Huckabee Continues to Garner the Most Support

FHQ is late to this, but in the interest of including all these early 2012 presidential polls, here is the latest from Gallup:

[Click to Enlarge and Here to go to full Gallup Report]

Fine, that's not any different than any of the other polls, horserace or otherwise, we've seen in 2009. How about among the nation as a whole?

[Click to Enlarge and Here to go to full Gallup Report]

No, that still doesn't stray too far from polls earlier in the year. Palin is still roundly dismissed. At least Barbour and Pawlenty's "nays" are based on a lack of name recognition. What's Gingrich's excuse? That can't be the 90s dragging him down, can it?

How about that Dan Quayle "qualified" question?

[Click to Enlarge and Here to go to full Gallup Report]

No, Palin isn't getting any better. Huckabee and Romney fare well, Gingrich breaks even and the masses still don't know Barbour and Pawlenty. But more than three out of five find the former Alaska governor to be unqualified.

[Click to Enlarge and Here to go to full Gallup Report]

And when things are broken down by party, not even Republicans see her as qualified as Huckabee, Romney or Gingrich. But more Democrats find her more qualified than Haley Barbour. It has been a slow crawl down in the polls this year for Palin, but it will be interesting to see how the book release/tour and Oprah visit affect these numbers.

Sadly, Public Policy Polling's 2012 trial heats will be in the field this weekend -- ahead of the book launch. Too bad.

NOTE: FHQ apologizes for the slow start to the week. The end of the semester around here is rapidly approaching and things are picking up. Amends will be made.


Recent Posts:
40 Passes, 39 Used: What's Wrong with This Again?

FHQ Friday Fun: The Day Mitt Romney Came Back from the Dead

New Jersey, Virginia & 2010

Palin's Poll Numbers Look a Lot Like Quayle's

From Brendan Nyhan posting at Pollster:

[Click to Enlarge]

Once perceptions are formed, they are difficult to break. And we all know how Quayle 2000 turned out. He didn't make it to Iowa. Will Palin?

Incidentally, Jonathan Bernstein over at A Plain Blog About Politics has an interesting take on how Palin fits into the 2012 field; like an issue candidate (a la Kucinich or Paul) but with a much bigger following. I aptly, in my opinion, draws a parallel between her and Jesse Jackson's run in 1984. It's an good read; check it out.


Recent Posts:
State of the Race: New Jersey Governor (10/28/09)

State of the Race: Virginia Governor (10/28/09)

CNN 2012 GOP Primary Poll: Huckabee Pulls in Almost a Third of Support

CNN 2012 GOP Primary Poll: Huckabee Pulls in Almost a Third of Support

New Addition: FHQ has also now made it easier for you to track the evolution of the 2012 Republican primary trendlines you see below. Just click here or on the link below the latest 2012 update on the left sidebar to see the posts dealing with each of the eleven surveys released thus far.

[Click to Enlarge]

Poll: CNN/Opinion Research
Conducted : Oct. 16-18, 2009
Sample: 1038 adults (nationally), 462 Republicans
Margin of Error: +/- 3% (full sample), +/- 4.5% (Republican sample)

Huckabee: 32%
Palin: 25%
Romney: 21%
Pawlenty: 5%
Someone else: 10%

Notes:
1) Mike Huckabee is the first candidate to top 30% in any of these polls thus far. On top of that, the former Arkansas governor is close to pulling in a third of the (Republican) survey respondents' support and is the most favorable among all respondents.

2) Sarah Palin is the next most favorable, but is also the most unfavorable with over half of all the respondents leaning toward the latter. It would have been nice to have seen the favorables split by party. Still, Palin does the best in this primary poll (25%) as she has done in any such poll since stepping down from the Alaska governorship in late July.

3) Finally, Mitt Romney falls back for the second consecutive poll, but remains the least favorable/unfavorable candidate outside of Tim Pawlenty (a function of nearly half the respondents not knowing who the Minnesota governor is).

And FHQ was going to write Palin off as being a part of that top tier of candidates.


Recent Posts:
State of the Race: New Jersey Governor (10/27/09)

State of the Race: Virginia Governor (10/27/09)

Why the Democratic Change Commission's March 1 Mandate Will Be a Tough Sell Without a Bipartisan Primary Reform Plan

New 2012 Presidential General Election Trendlines. Now Time Adjusted!

I think we've gotten to a point where we have had enough 2012 trial heat polls out thus far this year to warrant adjusting them for time. To this point FHQ has displayed the polls as if they were equidistant apart, but with Palin v. Obama topping double figures from a number of polls standpoint, the time has come for the figures to take on a more natural look. Below you'll find the trends for...

Newt Gingrich...

[Click to Enlarge]

Mike Huckabee...

[Click to Enlarge]

Sarah Palin...

[Click to Enlarge]

and Mitt Romney.

[Click to Enlarge]

Recent Posts:
More Notes on Yesterday's Democratic Change Commission Meeting

Democratic Change Commission Meeting #2: Timing

Gender Gap or Gender Deficit in 2012?

PPP's 2012 Presidential General Election Trial Heats In-Depth

Well, it appears as if the Bush bias from last month's Public Policy Polling survey of the 2012 presidential election has vanished with the former Florida governor excluded from the list of candidates hypothetically pitted against President Obama. Recall that Jeb Bush was the first candidate asked about in that poll and that may have primed respondents to conjure up memories of the not too distant Bush administration (How long will that last?). With Bush out and Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty in, the numbers for the stable list of candidates (Huckabee, Palin and Romney) returned to form -- or at least to levels that existed in the firm's August glimpse at the 2012 field. And you can see that depicted below. Just compare the August numbers the results released a day ago:

Obama: 47
Huckabee: 43
Undecided: 10

[Click to Enlarge]

Obama: 52
Palin: 40
Undecided: 8

[Click to Enlarge]

Obama: 50
Pawlenty: 30
Undecided: 20

[Click to Enlarge]

Obama: 48
Romney: 40
Undecided: 12

[Click to Enlarge]

Polling Firm: Public Policy Polling
Margin or Error: +/- 3.5%
Sample: 766 likely voters (nationally)
Conducted: October 16-19, 2009

Across the board, then, the three regulars improved this month on their performances against Obama in September. Now, whether that has anything to do with Bush being or not being in the survey questionnaire is certainly up for debate. On the surface, though, it looks as if that may have played a role. Obama's standing has changed little in the last month. The president's approval numbers are in basically the same position with the disapproval level has inched up a notch or so. However, that movement hardly seems to account for the closing of the gap between the president and the three prospective Republican nominees.

What else is there in this poll, though? There have been some quirks in these PPP polls throughout 2009. In July, it was Obama sweeping the South and in August it was the underlying education demographics of the sample. But nothing really jumps out at my after a rather cursory glance at the cross-tabs for October. However, there are some interesting trends in there.

First, the gender gap trend is still present. Palin continues to lag behind her male Republican counterparts relative to Obama among women. But for once someone did worse than the former Alaska governor on that front. Tim Pawlenty came in a whopping -37 on the gender gap measure (-24 with women and -13 with men against Obama) whereas Palin registered a -25 point disadvantage. When you compare that to Huckabee (-8) and Romney (-14), there really appears to be a line of demarcation between this group of candidates. In Pawlenty's defense, the Minnesota governor is dealing with being far more unknown to people than the other candidates and that definitely had an impact on his numbers.

There were also some interesting trends across the various age groups. Obama beat every Republican across every age group, but the patterns were noteworthy. The expectation is that the older the respondent, the more likely they would be to support a Republican candidate. That trend holds for Huckabee and Pawlenty, though the gaps are far greater for Pawlenty. That trend doesn't hold for Romney or Palin, though. In both cases, the former governors trail Obama but do better among the youngest group of voters (18-29) and the oldest group of voters (65+) than they do with the middle two age groups (30-45, 46-65) -- the gaps are smaller anyway.

All in all, an interesting poll. We'll have to see what November brings.


Recent Posts:
State of the Race: New Jersey Governor (10/22/09)

PPP 2012 Presidential Trial Heats: Huckabee's Still Tops

State of the Race: Virginia Governor (10/21/09)

PPP 2012 Presidential Trial Heats: Huckabee's Still Tops

Here's the latest from Public Policy Polling on the 2012 presidential general election trial heats. FHQ will add these as we've got time today. I'm in and out of meetings all day, so the graphs will be up incrementally and the full analysis will follow later.

Obama: 47
Huckabee: 43
Undecided: 10

Obama: 52
Palin: 40
Undecided: 8

Obama: 50
Pawlenty: 30
Undecided: 20

Obama: 48
Romney: 40
Undecided: 12

Polling Firm: Public Policy Polling
Margin or Error: +/- 3.5%
Sample: 766 likely voters
Conducted: October 16-19, 2009


Recent Posts:
State of the Race: Virginia Governor (10/21/09)

Got 2010 Redistricting on the Brain?

State of the Race: New Jersey Governor (10/20/09)

New (Well, Old) Rasmussen 2012 GOP Primary Poll: Huckabee's Tops

[Click to Enlarge]

Huckabee: 29%
Romney: 24%
Palin: 18%
Gingrich: 14%
Pawlenty: 4%

Polling Firm: Rasmussen
Margin of Error: +/- 4%
Sample: 750 likely GOP primary voters (nationally)
Conducted: October 15, 2009


Last Friday, Rasmussen released a look at the (very early -- Had to say it.) 2012 Republican presidential nomination race. This is the first such poll in nearly two months -- the head-to-head trial heat polls against President Obama are done more frequently -- but it seems to be showing the same picture with, perhaps, a slightly different spin. First of all, Mike Huckabee has traded positions with Mitt Romney, taking over the top spot for the first time since a July ABC/Washington Post poll had the former Arkansas governor in the lead. Still, we're operating with the same working group of contenders intact.

Or are we?

Though we've had but two polls (this Rasmussen one included) since August showing a widening gap between Sarah Palin and the top threesome, I'm on the verge of saying that there are two lead groups: the Huckabee/Romney group and the Palin/Gingrich group. The former has been consistently in the 20-30% range throughout the polling conducted since the presidential election a year ago. The latter group has been fairly consistently within the low 20% range and lower. Is the former Alaska governor settling into a position in the upper teens now? Only additional polling will tell us that for sure, but I think it is on the table now for consideration. Last week's Gallup numbers on Palin seem to echo this. Granted, that is a national poll of her approval and not a poll of likely Republican primary voters for 2012. Still, Palin has been in a better position overall prior to now.

Is it all bad for the former vice presidential nominee? Well, yeah it is, because she is also getting beaten handily in head-to-head Republican primary match ups against both Huckabee and Romney as well. Here are those numbers (also from the same Rasmussen poll) as well as the Romney/Huckabee trial heat:

Romney: 52%
Palin: 37%
undecided: 11%

Huckabee: 55%
Palin: 35%
undecided: 10%

Romney: 39%
Huckabee: 44%
undecided: 17%

Polling Firm: Rasmussen
Margin of Error: +/- 4%
Sample: 750 likely Republican primary voters
Conducted: October 15, 2009

A couple of notes about these, to me, somewhat strange polls. [The numbers are fine. They make sense, but I'm still trying to figure out why these particular match ups were polled. It just seems strange. But I think FHQ was the one that said it liked the information. Can't have it both ways, FHQ.] First, when Palin isn't among the list of candidates the undecided group shoots up to the high teens from the low double digits. Is that indicative of folks voting for someone other than Palin or just a signal that people are moving toward her? Sure, the temptation is to say that it is probably some of both, but look closely. Romney and Huckabee's numbers stay steady against Palin, but drop in her absence. Is that overwhelming proof that respondents are taking an "anybody but Palin" approach? No, it isn't, but there is some of that in there.

The second caveat contradicts that point, though. If we look at the figure Rasmussen loves to track on a daily basis in his Twitter account and apply it to Palin (and the other Republicans) instead of President Obama, we see that more people strongly favorable of Palin compared to those very unfavorable of her. Now, Obama has been stuck at around -10 in this (approval) rating for a long while, but Palin and the Republicans are a different story (and should be among an entirely Republican sample). The bottom line, though is that Palin is +31 by that metric (strongly favorable - strongly unfavorable). That bests Romney (+30) but pales in comparison to Huckabee's +43 rating. Of course, that there is such a difference between Romney and Huckabee on this measure (while Romney and Palin are close) yet Romney and Huckabee have similar positions relative to Palin likely says that there is some choose "anybody but Palin" activity in this sample.

Now let's see if Rasmussen releases any trial heats against Obama in the next couple of days. Public Policy Polling is set to release their numbers on that front on Thursday.


Recent Posts:
The Week Ahead

State of the Race: New Jersey Governor (10/16/09)

State of the Race: New Jersey Governor (10/15/09)

If you hold an Iowa Caucus, will the 2012 candidates come?

Well, the Des Moines Registered is sounding the alarm. It seems the prospective candidates for the 2012 Republican nomination aren't coming to the Hawkeye state anywhere near as many times as the prospective 2008 candidates did by this point four years ago.

Is that a fair comparison, though? 2008 was such an historic election cycle, that it would honestly be tough to top on any front. I suspect the Republicans will have raised more money by the time Iowa rolls around in early 2012 than their 2008 counterpart managed, but that may be about it. Both nominations were truly open and competitive for the first time since 1952 and interest in the race and participation skyrocketed because of it. Wouldn't it, then, be a fairer comparison to look at the 2004 Democratic candidate visits to the state instead?

How many times had Kerry and Edwards and Dean and Gephardt visited Iowa by this point in 2001? Well, through all of 2001, there were 14 Democratic visits to the state. And while that tops the handful of visits the Des Moines Register alludes to, the difference isn't really all that pronounced. The one big difference between the two cycles (early 2004 and early 2012) is that Iowa was close in 2000 and not in 2008. Furthermore, the losing 2008 party (the Republicans) is the party with that active nomination for 2012. In other words, the GOP has got some work to do to make up ground in the Hawkeye state. That said, we're not talking about a windfall of visits in either cycle.

So what's the big deal?

There isn't one. There may be a lack of prospective Republican candidates crossing the borders into Iowa, but I don't know that it has anything to do with the evangelical influence in the Iowa caucus electorate. Let's take a look at history: Iowa may not have chosen the eventual nominee every time in the post-reform era, but it has mattered every year since 1976 with the exception of 1992. And in that year Iowa Senator Tom Harkin ran for the Democratic nomination and was able shift the candidates' foci toward New Hampshire, skipping Iowa all the while. So far, I don't see any prominent Iowans lining up to seek the nomination.

If Iowa still plans to hold a caucus in 2012 and it remains first (and I have no evidence that it won't), then Republicans, with the media in tow, will make their way there by 2012.


Recent Posts:
State of the Race: Virginia Governor (10/12/09)

Rick Davis

Won't Somebody Please Think About the Political 'Scientists'!?!

The 2012 Presidential Candidates: Pawlenty and Petraeus

Jonathan Bernstein beat me to this, but this is something that I have thought more and more about recently. Why are members of the press and the punditocracy going out of their way to pretend that Tim Pawlenty is not running for president? As Jonathan noted:

"No, actually, it [not seeking a third gubernatorial term, starting a PAC, etc.] does mean he's running for president. It doesn't mean he'll still be running by the time we get to the Ames straw poll, and doesn't mean he'll formally announce a candidacy or wind up contesting primaries and caucuses. For now, though, Pawlenty is running for president, and there's no point in observers keeping to the fictions that candidates must observe (because of political convention, but also because of campaign finance rules)."

Is there anyone out there who thinks Pawlenty is not running for 2012? He may not be running in 2012, but he's aiming for it.

It's funny, John Zaller (UCLA political scientist) was at UGA about 18 months ago for a lecture and discussed the underlying model from The Party Decides. As he and his co-authors developed the model, Mark Warner served as the ideal combination of appeals to the various wings (interests, elites) of the Democratic Party. And it certainly looked in 2005-2006 as if Warner was going to run. He had finished his time as governor in Virginia, he had established a PAC and ventured onto the speaking circuit. Of course, not even six months after that appearance before the Netroots, Warner was out. Was Warner running for 2008? Yes, but he didn't end up running in 2008.

And Pawlenty doesn't even have a Hillary Clinton-type looming as the assumed standard bearer for the party.

And Petraeus?

Well, earlier in the week, The New York Times raised the possibility of a general with a smaller voice in/with a new administration being motivated to run against that administration in 2012. I'll admit that is an interesting theory -- it has definitely been talked about -- but even if his role has been diminished on matters such as Afghanistan, wouldn't there have to be a fundamental shift in the public's focus from domestic to foreign policy issues for the general to be an effective candidate? If Afghanistan deteriorates to the point that it supersedes the economy as the main issue in 2012 (and I suppose it could), then maybe. But what kind of chops does Petraeus have on domestic issues or more importantly economic matters? Is it just me or am I missing something here? Now, he could be a solid candidate, but we know nothing about his stances on things on the home front.


Recent Posts:
State of the Race: New Jersey (10/6/09)

Here's what things would have looked like in New Jersey had the Rasmussen poll been released tomorrow.

State of the Race: Virginia Governor (10/5/09)

Rove on Pawlenty in 2012

There's nothing groundbreaking here, but in a Thursday address to a gathering at St. Olaf's College in Northfield, MN, Karl Rove had a few things to say about Tim Pawlenty in the context of the 2012 Republican presidential nomination.

“Tim’s smart, thoughtful, thinks outside the box. He has a lot of new ideas.” But, he added, that between now and the 2012 presidential primaries, Pawlenty will have to roll up his sleeves and help other Republican candidates get elected if he wants a shot at the White House.

Well, I'd say that's why Freedom First PAC is now up and operational. But we'll have to see how effective it is at collecting and distributing money strategically to candidates around the country. Pawlenty's got some catching up to do given where Romney, Palin and Huckabee are PAC-wise.


Recent Posts:
State of the Race: New Jersey Governor (10/2/09)

The 2012 Presidential Candidates on Twitter (Sept. 2009)

FHQ Friday Fun: The Wii on Capitol Hill & The First Lady on Sesame St.

The 2012 Presidential Candidates on Twitter (Sept. 2009)

The negative momentum of August seems to have carried over into September. FHQ speculated when looking over the August Twitter numbers for the prospective 2012 GOP presidential candidates that the summer congressional recess and their attendant town hall meetings had kept the candidates away from actively utilizing the service (and gathering new followers). Now granted, not all of the candidates below are members of Congress. In fact. it took adding Mike Pence to the list to even the group up to three members. [After the tied-for-third finish in last month's Value Voters Summit straw poll, we were going to include the Indiana congressman anyway.] So that doesn't seem to be what's driving this downturn.

[Click to Enlarge]

Other than Newt Gingrich, no one else seems to be playing the invisible primary field through Twitter (and the former Speaker may not be a prolific Twitterer for that purpose in the first place). Tim Pawlenty is giving all indications that he's laying the groundwork for a run in 2012, John Thune is taking advantage of his position as head of the Republican Policy Committee in the Senate, Rick Santorum actually set foot in Iowa, Mitt Romney's doing all he can to maintain the air of a frontrunner and Sarah Palin is being Sarah Palin. But none of them are using Twitter to build a following and drive a message; well, not in the way that Palin is using Facebook at least. No, none of them are.

...yet.

[Click to Enlarge]

Yes, Palin and Gingrich are the best positioned of the bunch to get a message out quickly via Twitter and that is even with Palin not tweeting since she left office in July. @SarahPalinUSA changed back to @AKGovSarahPalin and the former is now its own feed, but remains dormant for the time being. Also, Mitt Romney had another account verified through Twitter, so he's back to square one as well. The former Massachusetts governor continues to look good on paper for 2012, but that hasn't stretched to Twitter.

[Click to Enlarge]

Our new addition, Mike Pence, enters with a pretty good tweet per day ratio (more now than the dormant Sarah Palin). Like most however, Pence isn't getting much bang for his buck. For as much as the Indiana congressman is putting into Twitter, he's not getting many followers in return (see Follower Ratio below). Gingrich is understandable. He tweets a lot and has now cracked the one million follower barrier. However, for as much as they use Twitter (not that often), Bobby Jindal and Tim Pawlenty have pretty good followings and resultant follower ratios (followers per tweet per day).

[Click to Enlarge]

Still, it was another slow month on the Twitter front for the prospective 2012 Republicans. The argument could be made that the fight is elsewhere now -- away from 2010 or 2012 and focused on health care or cap and trade. That may be true, but couldn't these folks be using Twitter to speak out on those issues? Yes, and some are.


Recent Posts:
FHQ Friday Fun: The Wii on Capitol Hill & The First Lady on Sesame St.

State of the Race: New Jersey Governor (10/1/09)

State of the Race: Virginia Governor (9/30/09)

Expectations and the 2012 Republican Presidential Nomination

Coming off of the Value Voters Summit 2012 straw poll this past weekend, FHQ has been considering expectations. Expectations are an interesting thing. I often talk to my students (relieved ones, I might add) about having set the bar so low prior to or immediately after taking an exam, that anything C or better is seen as having been successful. [Mind you, I'm not encouraging them to do this; only acknowledging that it takes place.] If you follow college football at all, we saw this play out in the time leading up to and during the University of Florida's game against Tennessee this past weekend. Vegas oddsmakers thought the Volunteers to be a 30 point underdog to the number one Gators. And the talk all week was not about who would win the game, but how much Florida would win by. In other words, expectations were high for Florida and low for Tennessee. That the Volunteers kept it close, ultimately losing by ten points, exceeded the expectations that even the most devout Volunteer fan had going in to the match up. It also had the sports punditry questioning the strength of Florida's team and the odds that the Gators will repeat this year as national champions.

Well, politics is no stranger to the expectations game either. With overwhelming majorities in both houses of Congress and Barack Obama in the White House, the sky was the limit for Democrats to get something done on a wide range of issues affecting the United States. However, things have gone anything other than smoothly since the beginning of the year for the Democratic Party and the president. It hasn't been all bad, but those numbers in Congress certainly inflated the expectations at the outset. And the party's inability to pass legislation on health care among other things has fed some of the frustration that is being felt primarily among independent voters. [Check out how the gap on the generic congressional ballot for 2010 has closed since last year's election.]

Expectations also play an outsized role in the presidential nomination process. And though this past weekend's straw poll was anything but representative of the Republican Party as a whole or the state of things over two years down the road, it is hard not to look at the results and think about them in terms of the expectations for each of the nine candidates included on the Value Voters' ballots.

Now let's look at those straw poll results again with expectations in mind. Here are FHQ's grades for each candidates relative to their expectations heading into the vote:

Mike Huckabee 28.48% (exceeded expectations)
Mitt Romney 12.40% (failed to meet expectations)
Tim Pawlenty 12.23% (exceeded expectations)
Sarah Palin 12.06% (failed to meet expectations)
Mike Pence 11.89% (exceeded expectations)
Newt Gingrich 6.70% (failed to meet expectations)
Bobby Jindal 4.69% (met expectations)
Rick Santorum 2.51% (met expectations)
Ron Paul 2.18% (failed to meet expectations)

Now some explanation. I think it is probably wise to draw a distinction among the exceeds expectations crowd. Certainly, Mike Huckabee's win -- the margin especially -- exceeded expectations, but given his background and his performance in last year's Republican primaries (not to mention the 2007 Value Voters straw poll where he placed a close second), it wasn't necessarily unforeseen. FHQ, then, would add the caveat here that Mike Huckabee slightly exceeded expectations whereas Tim Pawlenty and Mike Pence greatly exceeded the expectations that met each heading into the vote.

We often talk about bang for your buck in our posts on the 2012 candidates' usage of Twitter (see especially the Follower Ratio) and that applies here as well. The idea in the context of Twitter is that the more you use the service, the more followers you should have. What we could call the Expectations Ratio is comparable. Tim Pawlenty is running for president. Earlier this year, the Minnesota governor announced he would not seek a third term in 2010 and became vice chair of the Republican Governors Association after Mark Sanford's resignation as chair elevated Haley Barbour to the position and opened up the vice chair's spot. Pawlenty's travel schedule surrounding the RGA vice chair position affords him the opportunity to travel the country and get this name, face and ideas out there among the influential elites within the Republican Party. He has also spoken out more against the Obama administration and taken on a more visible presence in the media.

Contrast that with Mike Pence. Sure, the Indiana congressman's name has been quietly whispered in Republican circles as a 2012 possibility, but he hasn't been able to parlay that into any greater a voice than he had before.

But Pawlenty is very obviously working toward the nomination whereas Pence, though he may be quietly doing so, is not. Who got more bang for their buck? Both were in the pack that essentially tied for second place, but Pawlenty is the one who is publicly working to catch up to Huckabee and Palin and Romney in this invisible primary. Pence, on the other hand, though talked about as a possibility (and that certainly counts), just showed up and delivered a speech at the summit. Indiana's 8th district representative seemed to have gotten more for what he's put into it. However, given his current platform, Pawlenty may be able to utilize his showing the straw poll more effectively.

...but I'll have more on Pawlenty in a post later today.

Let's have a look now at the candidates who failed to meet expectations.

Mitt Romney was hurt by the fact that he won the straw poll in 2007, and failed to match that in 2009. Plus, the fact that the former Massachusetts governor is viewed, at least from a policy perspective (His background in business matches well with the current calls from the right for more fiscal conservatism.), as the frontrunner for the 2012 nomination, also made that 16 point margin between himself and Mike Huckabee seem that much wider. [The two basically tied atop the 2007 straw poll.]

Given that this was a group with which she was thought to be in good standing, Sarah Palin also failed to meet expectations. Now, Palin was working at a disadvantage here and her grade should be tempered by that fact. Unlike many of the others on the ballot, Palin was not in attendance, and as such, did not deliver a speech. In fact, there is a nice line of demarcation between the candidates who attended and those who did not. And it should perhaps not come as a surprise that four of the five candidates who were on the ballot and did not attend also ended up on the bottom in the results. The exception? Sarah Palin. That the former Alaska governor managed a second place finish when all the others not in attendance couldn't break the 7% mark in the straw poll, says something. Yet, given her position as the party's former vice presidential nominee and how she has done in some of the early polling (tightly clustered with Romney and Huckabee in the early primary polling for 2012), her showing amongst a group thought to be among her strongest supporters (though some of the early polling seems to refute that notion) places a certain amount of drag on her showing here relative to the expectations.

Finally, Newt Gingrich, for such a large and influential voice in the party, just simply failed to meet expectations. Yes, the former Speaker of the House has consistently polled behind the Huckabee/Palin/Romney troika, but he has also managed to outpace the "everyone else" category. That was not the case in this straw poll. The former Georgia congressman came in below a couple of heretofore "everyone else" candidates in Pawlenty and Pence.

Do the results hurt Romney or Palin or Gingrich? No, not as much as they help someone like Tim Pawlenty get mentioned in the same breath as that threesome or Mike Huckabee in relation to the 2012 Republican nomination.

*For more on the role of expectations in various aspects of the presidential nomination process please see Haynes, Gurian and Nichols (1997) and Haynes, Flowers and Gurian (2002).


Recent Posts:
About that New Jersey Governors Poll, Part III

State of the Race: Virginia Governor (9/20/09)

About that New Jersey Governors Poll, Part II

Huckabee Takes 2009 Value Voters Straw Poll

It wasn't a rout, but Mike Huckabee did win the 2009 Value Voters Summit straw poll by a margin greater than any of his opponents received. Huckabee won a plurality of the 597 voters with Mitt Romney, Tim Pawlenty, Sarah Palin and Mike Pence all jumbled up behind the former Arkansas governor.

Here's the count (via GOP12):

Huckabee: 28% (~167)*
Romney: 12% (74)
Pawlenty: 12% (73)
Palin: 12% (72)
Pence: 12% (71)
*Raw votes in parentheses (via Jonathan Martin)
------------------------
Newt Gingrich, Bobby Jindal, Ron Paul and Rick Santorum all split the remaining 24% of the voters. Rick Perry pulled his name off the ballot on Friday.

One thing that struck me as curious was that, in looking back at the 2007 Value Voters straw poll, Romney won and there were approximately ten times as many votes cast. The total two years ago was inflated by online voting whereas this year's poll was comprised of those in attendance.

What does it all mean? Well, the top two are still the same as they were two years ago, but the ordering is reversed. Again though, it is still early yet to be thinking about the 2012 race (despite the fun). One thing that is interesting is that Huckabee's position in these results mirrors some of what we've seen in the 2012 polls conducted thus far. Especially in the case of the general election trial heats against Obama, Huckabee has consistently done the best. Head-to-head in the Republican primary polling, though, the former Arkansas governor has been trading the top honor with both Sarah Palin and Mitt Romney, with all three clustered atop the list well ahead of all other prospective candidates. Are those general elections trial heats driving this straw poll result or are these the type of voters that are being picked up in and supportive of Huckabee in those polls? It is an interesting question that I don't think we really have an answer to.

Regardless, this is an early feather in Huckabee's 2012 cap.

...but will he decide to run? (See, I told you it was early.)


Recent Posts:
Friday Afternoon Open Thread: The Americano

State of the Race: Virginia Governor (9/18/09)

State of the Race: Virginia Governor (9/17/09)