Tuesday, March 24, 2009

I'll Admit It. CQ's Got Me on This One.

...to some extent.

[Click Map Enlarge and HERE for a link to CQ's Interactive Map]

No, they don't have a layer that shows the split presidential and House districts, but this interactive map that CQ put together to accompany the data they've put out over the last couple of weeks is pretty snazzy. And the clarity of the district lines is great.

Click on the link under the map to go play around with it.

Recent Posts:
NPR's 2012 Bracket Results (1st Round) Are Now Up

2012 Primaries: Democratic Change Commission Named

Let's Try This 2012 GOP Bracket Again


Jack said...

And CQ is wrong about my district, NY-3. It claims that McCain won the district, 52-47. However, it appears (based on the figures on other sites) that that only considers the Suffolk County portion of the district. This is only a small portion of the district and encompasses a conservative part of Suffolk County. If you include Nassau County's share of the NY-3 vote, Obama surely defeated McCain in the district.

In other words, every analysis you see about congressional district results and split districts is at least very slightly wrong.

Anonymous said...

FHQ is lucky to have someone on the ground in NY-3 to keep us abreast of the discrepancies. That district has been a real thorn in the sides of people looking into presidential vote by congressional district.

Jack said...

I hope you all buy my book, Jack's Guide to New York's Third, coming out on July 4 (because we're really patriotic here). Buy early and you get a free copy of "Pete King's Offensive Comments" in which he tries (but fails) to make the case that he's more offensive than his fellow King, Rep. Steve from Iowa's Fifth.

Jack said...

The numbers are now in, and apparently McCain won NY-3. I have no idea how McCain won a D+2 district in the Northeast which has continually grown more Democratic, and am a little annoyed that he won my home district, but at least I can stop ranting about how everyone else is wrong.

Josh Putnam said...

Very interesting. I'll have to look, but I'm assuming that that district is among the bluest that McCain won.

Thanks for the link to the data as well.

Jack said...

Pennsylvania's 12th district, a D+5 district, voted for McCain 50%-49%. Obama did only slightly better here than in R+11 PA-16, based in Lancaster, which went 51%-48% McCain. Pennsylvania's 12th is represented by a certain John Murtha. Do I remember a comment this congressman made about the voters in his district?

And Josh, since you know far more about electoral politics than I, can you think of any reason why Obama did so badly in my district? If it's D+2, you'd expect Obama to win about 55-44, so he underperformed by about eight points. It has a rather high Jewish population, but the belief that they would be reluctant to vote Obama was overstated (though I certainly detected a little of it). I think it's a somewhat older district, too (young people have been leaving Nassau County fairly rapidly). But none of these factros explain an eight point underperformance, and Democratic registration has increased rapidly in Nassau County, and we're electing more Democrats to state and local offices than ever. (Albeit in parts of the county that are not in the district. I don't have breakdowns of the registration by district and can't say if the increases in Dem registration are only in other parts of Nassau or spread uniformly throughout the county. If the former is true, we might see some creative redistricting on Long Island in a couple of years; the 2nd, 4th and 5th districts are Democratic enough that they can afford to shed a few Democrats. It all depends on the 2010 elections as well; the state Senate and governorship are up for grabs.)