The Electoral College Map (9/20/20)

Update for September 20.

As the weekend comes a close with just 44 days until November 3, there was another round of polls released. Seven new surveys from six states -- three current Biden states and three Trump states -- that are Lean or closer in the FHQ averages had something good for both candidates.

Polling Quick Hits:
Florida
(Biden 48, Trump 46)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +3.74]
The Sunshine state continues to be probably the clearest example of a narrowing race. Florida still favors Biden, but that advantage has drawn closer and closer over time, and the new YouGov survey did little to alter that trajectory. If anything, the trend line in the YouGov series in Florida is a microcosm of that change. The firm was last in the field in the Sunshine state in early July and had Biden pulling in the same 48 percent support. Trump, however, has made up ground since that time, adding four percent to bring him within two.


Georgia
(Trump 46, Biden 45)
[Current FHQ margin: Trump +0.38]
Redfield & Wilton Strategies may not have conducted a survey in the Peach state until now, but their findings in this first poll there nearly match the established average shares of support both Biden and Trump hold at FHQ. Trump's 46 in the poll is the same as his average share of support while Biden would round up to 46 from 45.9. So it is not that far off for starters, but also has little impact on the average margin. It nudges it up in Trump's direction by the slightest amount, but keeps Georgia as the most competitive state on the president's side of the partisan line. Georgia may or may not turn blue in November, but that it is the closest state on the board says a lot about where this race stands. If Georgia remains in that position on election day, then Biden is likely going to be in good shape if the order of states holds up and the same basic uniform swing persists.

Minnesota
(Biden 51, Trump 42)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +8.25]
Redfield & Wilton Strategies also had not been in the field in the North Star state. But there, too, the firm shows a race that is remarkably consistent with the existing averages (candidate shares of support and margin) at FHQ. The 51-42 Biden lead in this survey mirrors the average 51-42 lead the former vice president has here. It is also in line with the bulk of September polling in the the Land of 10,000 Lakes. Again, as with Georgia above, such a survey does little to change the outlook in a state that has been a flip target of the Trump campaign.


Montana
(Trump 49, Biden 42)
[Current FHQ margin: Trump +7.71]
This was the first Siena/NYT Upshot_ survey of the Treasure state, so there is no direct comparison, but it is another poll that tracks fairly closely to the existing FHQ averages. After rounding, Trump leads here 50-43. And while that is a good sign for the president, it comes with a significant caveat. Montana was a state the president carried by 20 points four years ago. And while he is unlikely to relinquish the state to Biden, the 13 point swing in the Democrats' direction is notable. In calendar 2020 polling in the state, the president has run nearly six points behind his 2016 pace, just barely cracking 50 percent. Biden, meanwhile, has boosted the Democrats' share of support by almost eight points.


Pennsylvania
(Biden 48, Trump 43 via Climate Nexus | Biden 47, Trump 45 via Trafalgar Group)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +5.20]
The Keystone state remains the tipping point state in the order of states depicted in the Electoral College Spectrum below and is just on the Lean side of the five point line separating the Biden Lean and Toss Up states. The Climate Nexus survey may be more in line with that, but the Trafalgar poll has the advantage of being the second poll in a series. And the early July release had Biden up by a margin consistent with the current average margin during Biden's peak period in 2020 polling. But that five point edge for the former vice president in June/July has shrunk to just two points now at Trafalgar. Unlike, say, Florida above, however, Pennsylvania has not seen the same type of narrowing of late. Mid-single digit margins in Biden's favor have been more prevalent in Pennsylvania polling in September.


Texas
(Trump 48, Biden 46)
[Current FHQ margin: Trump +1.14]
Finally, another YouGov battleground tracker continues to show a close race for Texas' 38 electoral votes. The Lone Star state continues to tilt in Trump's direction, but it also continues to be much closer than it has in more than a generation. But the persistence of that narrow advantage for the president there can be seen in the two polls conducted by YouGov in Texas. The one point lead Trump had in the July poll has bumped up to two in September with the president trending toward 50 percent. No, that is not indicative of any tightening, but it is evidence that some wavering support has come home to the president in Texas.

NOTE: A description of the methodology behind the graduated weighted average of 2020 state-level polling that FHQ uses for these projections can be found here.

The Electoral College Spectrum1
DC-3 MA-11 (14)2	CT-7 (162)	WI-10 (253)	AK-3 (125)	IN-11 (60)
HI-4 (18)	NJ-14 (176)	PA-203 (273 | 285)	SC-9 (122)	UT-6 (49)
CA-55 (73)	OR-7 (183)	NV-6 (279 | 265)	MO-10 (113)	KY-8 (43)
VT-3 (76)	NM-5 (188)	FL-29 (308 | 259)	MT-3 (103)	AL-9 (35)
NY-29 (105)	VA-13 (201)	AZ-11 ME CD2-1 (320 | 230)	KS-6 NE CD1-1 (100)	ID-4 (26)
WA-12 (117)	CO-9 (210)	NC-15 (335 | 218)	MS-6 (93)	ND-3 (22)
ME CD1-1 MD-10 (128)	ME-2 (212)	GA-16 (203)	AR-6 (87)	SD-3 (19)
IL-20 (148)	MN-10 (222)	OH-18 (187)	NE-2 (81)	OK-7 (16)
RI-4 (152)	MI-16 (238)	IA-6 (169)	LA-8 (79)	WV-5 (9)
DE-3 (155)	NE CD2-1 NH-4 (243)	TX-38 (163)	TN-11 (71)	WY-3 NE CD3-1 (4)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. 2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Pennsylvania (Biden's toss up states plus the Pennsylvania), he would have 286 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Biden's number is on the left and Trump's is on the right in bold italics. 3 Pennsylvania is the state where Biden crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election, the tipping point state. The tipping point cell is shaded in yellow to denote that and the font color is adjusted to attempt to reflect the category in which the state is.

Three red state polls and three blue state polls did little to alter the outlook here at FHQ despite coming from a host of states that are among the most highly targeted. In most cases, the polls ended up closely mirroring the existing graduated weighted averages. The map remained the same and the Spectrum and Watch List did as well. The race will enter the new work week -- just six weeks out from election day -- looking much as it did when the last week began.



Where things stood at FHQ on September 20 (or close to it) in...
2016
2012
2008



--
NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Biden and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.

The Watch List1
State	Potential Switch
Georgia	from Toss Up Trump	to Toss Up Biden
Iowa	from Toss Up Trump	to Toss Up Biden
Mississippi	from Strong Trump	to Lean Trump
Nevada	from Toss Up Biden	to Lean Biden
Ohio	from Toss Up Trump	to Toss Up Biden
Pennsylvania	from Lean Biden	to Toss Up Biden
South Carolina	from Lean Trump	to Toss Up Trump
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

--
Methodological Note: In past years, FHQ has tried some different ways of dealing with states with no polls or just one poll in the early rounds of these projections. It does help that the least polled states are often the least competitive. The only shortcoming is that those states may be a little off in the order in the Spectrum. In earlier cycles, a simple average of the state's three previous cycles has been used. But in 2016, FHQ strayed from that and constructed an average swing from 2012 to 2016 that was applied to states. That method, however, did little to prevent anomalies like the Kansas poll that had Clinton ahead from biasing the averages. In 2016, the early average swing in the aggregate was  too small to make much difference anyway. For 2020, FHQ has utilized an average swing among states that were around a little polled state in the rank ordering on election day in 2016. If there is just one poll in Delaware in 2020, for example, then maybe it is reasonable to account for what the comparatively greater amount of polling tells us about the changes in Connecticut, New Jersey and New Mexico. Or perhaps the polling in Iowa, Mississippi and South Carolina so far tells us a bit about what may be happening in Alaska where no public polling has been released. That will hopefully work a bit better than the overall average that may end up a bit more muted.


--
Related posts:
The Electoral College Map (9/19/20)

The Electoral College Map (9/18/20)

The Electoral College Map (9/17/20)

Follow FHQ on Twitter, Instagram and Facebook or subscribe by Email.

The Electoral College Map (9/19/20)

Update for September 19.

There was not a lot of polling to sift through on Saturday, but what little was out there had an impact on how those states -- well, state and district -- are positioned here at FHQ. Both Missouri and Nebraska's second congressional district have spent time this summer hopping back and forth between the Toss Up and Lean categories on their respective sides of the partisan line. Both, however, now appear to have slipped more comfortably into lean territory, Missouri on the Trump side and NE CD2 on Biden's. And both, as one can see below in the updated margins, are mirror images of each other.

Yet, FHQ is tempted to say that with the race tightening in some important states, Missouri is further out of reach to Biden than the Omaha-centered district is to Trump. That narrowing in states like Florida in particular has a trajectory that has brought the state closer to Trump. But that is not a trend line everywhere. And it may not include Nebraska's second. Honestly, there just is not enough polling there to arrive confidently at any conclusion. What polling has come out of the Cornhusker state has shown a very stable race for that one electoral vote however.

Polling Quick Hits:
Missouri
(Trump 53, Biden 45)
[Current FHQ margin: Trump +6.32]
The eight point advantage Remington Research Group found in the Show-Me state in June remains now. But both candidates have siphoned off a couple of additional points from undecided/other in the time since then. Even though this survey has Trump as his peak in Missouri polling in calendar 2020, the president is overall still lagging nearly six points behind in the FHQ averages where he ended up on election day in 2016. Biden may have improved over Clinton's pace, but it does not appear as if that is going to do much other than to reduce the margin in a state that Trump is likely to hold in 45 days' time.


Nebraska CD2
(Biden 51, Trump 45)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +6.60]
Again, there has not been much polling out of NE CD2, but there was a two-for from Global Strategy Group; a new poll and results from a July survey as well. The change? Trump gained a point over the last two months but continues to trail by mid-single digits in the Omaha-area district. In the three polls conducted there that have made it out for public consumption, Biden has been at 51 percent in each while Trump has been at 44 or 45. If that was not such a small pool of surveys, and all from Democratic-aligned pollsters, FHQ might venture that the race there is remarkably stable. It may be, but these available surveys may also be a bit Democratic-friendly. Still, the static nature of the limited polling, even if tilted somewhat in the Democrats' direction, is not exactly good news for a president who narrowly carried the district in 2016.

NOTE: A description of the methodology behind the graduated weighted average of 2020 state-level polling that FHQ uses for these projections can be found here.

The Electoral College Spectrum1
DC-3 MA-11 (14)2	CT-7 (162)	WI-10 (253)	AK-3 (125)	IN-11 (60)
HI-4 (18)	NJ-14 (176)	PA-203 (273 | 285)	SC-9 (122)	UT-6 (49)
CA-55 (73)	OR-7 (183)	NV-6 (279 | 265)	MO-10 (113)	KY-8 (43)
VT-3 (76)	NM-5 (188)	FL-29 (308 | 259)	MT-3 (103)	AL-9 (35)
NY-29 (105)	VA-13 (201)	AZ-11 ME CD2-1 (320 | 230)	KS-6 NE CD1-1 (100)	ID-4 (26)
WA-12 (117)	CO-9 (210)	NC-15 (335 | 218)	MS-6 (93)	ND-3 (22)
ME CD1-1 MD-10 (128)	ME-2 (212)	GA-16 (203)	AR-6 (87)	SD-3 (19)
IL-20 (148)	MN-10 (222)	OH-18 (187)	NE-2 (81)	OK-7 (16)
RI-4 (152)	MI-16 (238)	IA-6 (169)	LA-8 (79)	WV-5 (9)
DE-3 (155)	NE CD2-1 NH-4 (243)	TX-38 (163)	TN-11 (71)	WY-3 NE CD3-1 (4)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. 2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Pennsylvania (Biden's toss up states plus the Pennsylvania), he would have 286 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Biden's number is on the left and Trump's is on the right in bold italics. 3 Pennsylvania is the state where Biden crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election, the tipping point state. The tipping point cell is shaded in yellow to denote that and the font color is adjusted to attempt to reflect the category in which the state is.

Both Missouri and NE CD2 moved deeper into their respective coalitions of states with the introduction of these new surveys. Missouri changed spots with South Carolina and came off the Watch List below in the process. Similarly, Nebraska's second moved off of the tipping point cell and into the middle Democratic column on the Spectrum while also sliding off the Watch List. Neither are fundamental shake ups on the Spectrum, but both moving of the List brings that group of states -- those within a fraction of a point of changing categories -- down to just seven states. But nearly half -- a trio that includes Georgia, Iowa and Ohio -- are within range of jumping the partisan line and altering the overall projected electoral vote tally.

All in all, it was a quiet Saturday, but with surveys that created some subtle changes here at FHQ.



Where things stood at FHQ on September 19 (or close to it) in...
2016
2012
2008



--
NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Biden and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.

The Watch List1
State	Potential Switch
Georgia	from Toss Up Trump	to Toss Up Biden
Iowa	from Toss Up Trump	to Toss Up Biden
Mississippi	from Strong Trump	to Lean Trump
Nevada	from Toss Up Biden	to Lean Biden
Ohio	from Toss Up Trump	to Toss Up Biden
Pennsylvania	from Lean Biden	to Toss Up Biden
South Carolina	from Lean Trump	to Toss Up Trump
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

--
Methodological Note: In past years, FHQ has tried some different ways of dealing with states with no polls or just one poll in the early rounds of these projections. It does help that the least polled states are often the least competitive. The only shortcoming is that those states may be a little off in the order in the Spectrum. In earlier cycles, a simple average of the state's three previous cycles has been used. But in 2016, FHQ strayed from that and constructed an average swing from 2012 to 2016 that was applied to states. That method, however, did little to prevent anomalies like the Kansas poll that had Clinton ahead from biasing the averages. In 2016, the early average swing in the aggregate was  too small to make much difference anyway. For 2020, FHQ has utilized an average swing among states that were around a little polled state in the rank ordering on election day in 2016. If there is just one poll in Delaware in 2020, for example, then maybe it is reasonable to account for what the comparatively greater amount of polling tells us about the changes in Connecticut, New Jersey and New Mexico. Or perhaps the polling in Iowa, Mississippi and South Carolina so far tells us a bit about what may be happening in Alaska where no public polling has been released. That will hopefully work a bit better than the overall average that may end up a bit more muted.


--
Related posts:
The Electoral College Map (9/18/20)

The Electoral College Map (9/17/20)

The Electoral College Map (9/16/20)

Follow FHQ on Twitter, Instagram and Facebook or subscribe by Email.

The Electoral College Map (9/18/20)

Update for September 18.

Changes (September 18)
State	Before	After
Nebraska CD2	Toss Up Biden	Lean Biden

At the end of the work week there was a flurry of polling activity out of the Rust Belt and Sun Belt targets which not only have seen the most campaign and media attention in 2020, but have also been surveyed the most frequently. There are the usual six -- Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin -- but add to that more data out of Maine (especially the competitive CD2 in the Pine Tree state) and another in Ohio. Those two have been underpolled compared to the core six battlegrounds, but any updates from either or both provides an opportunity to better calibrate both as election day nears.

The changes in Arizona and Florida once again had an impact on Nebraska's second congressional district, shifting it back into the Lean Biden category. Again, this is less about the movement than it is about where the district is positioned in the order. It rests right on that Lean/Toss Up line at Biden +5. And as long as it sits on limited polling data, then its position will remain contingent upon how states that finished near it in 2016 have fared. Additional polling in those states and NE CD2's proximity to the Lean/Toss Up line means that it is apt to jump back and forth across the line as it has this week.

Polling Quick Hits:
Arizona
(Biden 49, Trump 40)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +3.61]
Across most of the new polls today, there are previous iterations from the pollsters that were in the field. That is true of Siena/NYT Upshot in Arizona. Last in the field there in June, Siena found a 48-41 Biden advantage during what could be considered Biden's peak in calendar 2020 polling nationwide. The marginal change -- Biden gaining a net two points over the last three months -- is more a story of stability than of change. As such it does not fit the trend witnessed in other states of late: that Biden's peak in June/July and basically came back to his position prior to that surge period. That stability, however, may be less an issue than the gap between the Biden and Trump in the Grand Canyon state in this poll. It had the effect of pushing Arizona's margin to within range of Florida's. The two states have been on something of a collision course over the last couple of weeks with Florida becoming more competitive and the margin in Arizona growing.


Maine
(Biden 55, Trump 38)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +13.09]

Maine CD2
(Biden 47, Trump 45)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +2.45]
Siena/NYT Upshot conducted a poll in Maine, their first there in calendar 2020. While there is not a natural point of comparison within a series of polls by Siena, the statewide margin and the gap in ME CD2 are consistent with the existing averages in both. That is probably more true in the district than statewide where Biden ran a couple of points ahead of his FHQ average share of support and Trump lagged nearly two points behind his. But the more narrow margin in ME CD2 perhaps casts some doubt on the Biden +9 from Quinnipiac earlier in the week. It stood out from other polling before today and still does once the Siena poll was added. Statewide, Maine is looking comfortably blue and while ME CD2 tilts in Biden's direction, the former vice president's edge there is small.


Michigan
(Biden 48, Trump 40)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +7.53]
EPIC-MRA has now conducted five polls in the Great Lakes state in calendar 2020. The latest finds Biden at his lowest point in any of those surveys in the series. But the lead is as wide now as it was in the time before his peak during the former vice president's June/July surge (both nationally and in this series). The trend line of that margin may have regressed to the pre-surge mean, but both candidates have lost support since the first poll in the series back in January. On top of that, this most recent poll in the series does not diverge too much from the FHQ averages showing Biden up 49-42 (rounded).


North Carolina
(Biden 45, Trump 44)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +1.53]
The biggest change in the Siena/NYT Upshot wave was in North Carolina. As in Arizona, the last time Siena conducted a survey in the Tar Heel state was in June. But unlike the Grand Canyon state, the intervening period was not exactly marked by stability. Instead, a nine point Biden advantage in June shrunk to just a point in September. The four points Biden lost seemingly went right into Trump's column. There is no pre-surge poll from Siena in this case, so one cannot as easily suggest that the race for North Carolina's 15 electoral votes has regressed to the mean, but given recent polling from other pollsters, one can conclude that North Carolina is a bit closer now than it was. But the FHQ average margin in the Tar Heel state remains fairly stable in the 1-2 point range.


Civiqs (Rust Belt Rising September wave)
The top priorities on the checklist of items to look at in these waves of polls is to explore not only what has changed since the last iteration but whether the order holds up compared to the depicted on the Electoral College Spectrum below. On the first item, the growth in the Biden lead in Michigan will catch one's eye, but that Trump took back the advantage in Ohio is noteworthy as well. But the changes were minimal for the most part from August to now. The order of the states also matches the FHQ order with Ohio on the Trump end and Michigan on the Biden end. Michigan, however, is a bit further off from the tighter bond it has on the Spectrum with Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

Michigan: Biden +11 (Biden +4, Trump -4 since the August wave)
Ohio: Trump +3 (Biden -2, Trump +1)
Pennsylvania: Biden +7 (Biden +1, Trump +1)
Wisconsin: Biden +7 (Biden +/-0, Trump -1)


Redfield and Wilton Strategies (Swing state September wave)
Applying the same checklist to the latest R&W cluster of polls there was not a lot of movement between early September and now. Biden did lose ground in both Michigan and Wisconsin, but maintained leads that were greater than or consistent with the FHQ average margins in both. And North Carolina flipped from favoring Trump about two weeks ago to giving Biden the edge now. But that may just be noise. North Carolina is close as FHQ has said a number of times and has reached a point where Biden and Trump both hold leads in the polls out of the Tar Heel state, but they are within a narrow range. That is no different in this wave. As for the order of the six core battlegrounds, that, too, holds up for the most part. Only Arizona is "out of position" on the Biden side of Florida. But again, the two states have been on something of a collision course of late and if current trends hold will likely trade spots on the Spectrum in the coming days.

Arizona: Biden +5 (Biden -1, Trump +1 since the early September wave)
Florida: Biden +3 (Biden +/-0, Trump +/-0)
Michigan: Biden +10 (Biden -2, Trump -1)
North Carolina: Biden +2 (Biden +4, Trump +1)
Pennsylvania: Biden +5 (Biden +1, Trump +1)
Wisconsin: Biden +6 (Biden -3, Trump +/-0)

NOTE: A description of the methodology behind the graduated weighted average of 2020 state-level polling that FHQ uses for these projections can be found here.

The Electoral College Spectrum1
DC-3 MA-11 (14)2	CT-7 (162)	WI-10 (252)	AK-3 (125)	IN-11 (60)
HI-4 (18)	NJ-14 (176)	PA-203 NE CD2-1 (273 | 286)	MO-10 (122)	UT-6 (49)
CA-55 (73)	OR-7 (183)	NV-6 (279 | 265)	SC-9 (112)	KY-8 (43)
VT-3 (76)	NM-5 (188)	FL-29 (308 | 259)	MT-3 (103)	AL-9 (35)
NY-29 (105)	VA-13 (201)	AZ-11 ME CD2-1 (320 | 230)	KS-6 NE CD1-1 (100)	ID-4 (26)
WA-12 (117)	CO-9 (210)	NC-15 (335 | 218)	MS-6 (93)	ND-3 (22)
ME CD1-1 MD-10 (128)	ME-2 (212)	GA-16 (203)	AR-6 (87)	SD-3 (19)
IL-20 (148)	MN-10 (222)	OH-18 (187)	NE-2 (81)	OK-7 (16)
RI-4 (152)	MI-16 (238)	IA-6 (169)	LA-8 (79)	WV-5 (9)
DE-3 (155)	NH-4 (242)	TX-38 (163)	TN-11 (71)	WY-3 NE CD3-1 (4)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. 2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Pennsylvania (Biden's toss up states plus the Pennsylvania), he would have 286 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Biden's number is on the left and Trump's is on the right in bold italics. 3 Pennsylvania is the state where Biden crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election, the tipping point state. The tipping point cell is shaded in yellow to denote that and the font color is adjusted to attempt to reflect the category in which the state is.

There was a lot to look at today, but little in the way of change here at FHQ. Yes, Nebraska's second district shifted again, and subtle changes on the map, Spectrum and Watch List followed. None of that is surprising. Neither really is the fact that Ohio nudged past Georgia deeper into the Trump coalition of states on the Spectrum. On the weight of that Civiqs survey, Ohio leaves Georgia behind as the most competitive Trump state on the board, the state right up against the partisan line separating the two candidates' coalitions of states from each other.

The Watch List remains as it did a day ago. The nine states and districts are still the ones to watch when new polling data comes in. But only Georgia, Iowa and Ohio are within range of jumping the partisan line and changing the overall projected electoral vote tally.



Where things stood at FHQ on September 18 (or close to it) in...
2016
2012
2008



--
NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Biden and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.

The Watch List1
State	Potential Switch
Georgia	from Toss Up Trump	to Toss Up Biden
Iowa	from Toss Up Trump	to Toss Up Biden
Mississippi	from Strong Trump	to Lean Trump
Missouri	from Lean Trump	to Toss Up Trump
Nebraska CD2	from Lean Biden	to Toss Up Biden
Nevada	from Toss Up Biden	to Lean Biden
Ohio	from Toss Up Trump	to Toss Up Biden
Pennsylvania	from Lean Biden	to Toss Up Biden
South Carolina	from Lean Trump	to Toss Up Trump
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

--
Methodological Note: In past years, FHQ has tried some different ways of dealing with states with no polls or just one poll in the early rounds of these projections. It does help that the least polled states are often the least competitive. The only shortcoming is that those states may be a little off in the order in the Spectrum. In earlier cycles, a simple average of the state's three previous cycles has been used. But in 2016, FHQ strayed from that and constructed an average swing from 2012 to 2016 that was applied to states. That method, however, did little to prevent anomalies like the Kansas poll that had Clinton ahead from biasing the averages. In 2016, the early average swing in the aggregate was  too small to make much difference anyway. For 2020, FHQ has utilized an average swing among states that were around a little polled state in the rank ordering on election day in 2016. If there is just one poll in Delaware in 2020, for example, then maybe it is reasonable to account for what the comparatively greater amount of polling tells us about the changes in Connecticut, New Jersey and New Mexico. Or perhaps the polling in Iowa, Mississippi and South Carolina so far tells us a bit about what may be happening in Alaska where no public polling has been released. That will hopefully work a bit better than the overall average that may end up a bit more muted.


--
Related posts:
The Electoral College Map (9/17/20)

The Electoral College Map (9/16/20)

The Electoral College Map (9/15/20)

Follow FHQ on Twitter, Instagram and Facebook or subscribe by Email.

The Electoral College Map (9/17/20)

Update for September 17.

Changes (September 17)
State	Before	After
Nebraska CD2	Lean Biden	Toss Up Biden

Thursday's batch of state-level polls -- eight surveys from five states -- came right out of the heart of the order among other places. But Arizona, Florida and North Carolina all sit between the partisan line separating the Biden and Trump coalitions of states on the Electoral College Spectrum below and the current tipping point state, Pennsylvania. Biden holds the edge in all three as of now, and Trump realistically probably needs all three in most of his paths to 270 electoral votes.

And the good news for the president with the addition of today's polls is that the FHQ margins in both Arizona and Florida ticked down slightly, not only bringing the pair closer to the partisan line but influencing the average in Nebraska's second congressional district again. The Omaha-area district, as it has now done three times since last weekend has hopped the Lean/Toss Up line back into Toss Up Biden territory. Recall, that with limited polling of Nebraska, the averages in competitive CD2 are tethered to states that finished near it in 2016, including Arizona and Florida. The attempt there is to capture the swing in the last four years in similar states.

Polling Quick Hits:
Arizona
(Biden 45, Trump 40 via Kaiser Family Foundation | Biden 47, Trump 47 via Monmouth)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +3.42]
Both polls released today in the Grand Canyon state are either the first this year (Kaiser) or the first since just before the Arizona presidential primary back in mid-March (Monmouth). And in the latter's case, the March sample was registered voters compared to a likely voter sample now. In other words, there is no perfect comparison for either survey. While the Kaiser survey had Biden further ahead, it also left a lot of undecideds out there and both candidates ran well behind their established FHQ averages. The Monmouth poll comes with the usual caveat that FHQ has once again used the low turnout likely voter model which more often than not favors Trump. The results do not differ that substantially when using the high turnout data. Although, it should be disclosed that using those data -- Biden +2 -- would have kept the FHQ average margin stable instead of dropping it down a hair.


California
(Biden 61, Trump 31 via David Binder Research | Biden 60, Trump 31 via PPIC)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +29.18]
The two updates out of California are both remarkably similar and remarkably consistent with the existing candidate shares of support and margin. Needless to say, that is not the sort of data that will uproot a state and push it to a new position in the order below, much less shift it into a different category. What one can say about California at this point is that the Golden state is one of the few where Biden is lagging behind Hillary Clinton's pace in 2016. But that is offset somewhat by Trump running slightly behind his showing there as well. However, the president's average share of support after adding these two surveys is less than a point off where he finished four years ago.


Florida
(Biden 43, Trump 42)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +3.81]
Like the Arizona poll above, the Florida version of the Kaiser Family Foundation survey had double digit undecideds in a registered voter sample. Again, that meant that both Biden's and Trump's shares of support in the poll ran fairly far behind their established averages here at FHQ. But Trump was further behind his than was Biden. In actuality, however, the real focal point in this survey should be that it is the lowest either candidate has been in a poll of the Sunshine state since a July Zogby Analytics survey. While Trump has fallen below 42 percent on occasion, this matches Biden's nadir in Florida. Shares aside, though, the margin was enough to once again bring the Florida average down a bit drawing it closer to both Arizona and the partisan line.


North Carolina
(Biden 45, Trump 43 via Kaiser Family Foundation | Biden 46, Trump 43 via Suffolk)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +1.53]
As with the California pair of polls above, the two out of the Tar Heel state were quite similar to each other on the surface. Unlike the California polls, the two in North Carolina surveys were not as consistent with the existing averages in the state. Biden trailed his FHQ average share by a couple of points while Trump was about three off of his. North Carolina remains a close state, but one that continues to ever so slightly advantage the former vice president. And unlike the next two states in the order -- Arizona and Florida (which were also part of the Kaiser Sun Belt wave) -- the average in the Tar Heel state increased rather than decreased, nudging the Tar Heel state a little further away from the partisan line. But it remains Biden's first line of defense up against the line separating the Biden states from the Trump states.


Utah
(Trump 53, Biden 35)
[Current FHQ margin: Trump +14.71]
Finally, in Utah RMG Research unsurprisingly found the president well out in front of Biden. That may not be surprising, but the fact that Trump's 53 percent share in the survey is his high water mark in polling of the Beehive state in calendar 2020 may be. Still, that has the president running well ahead of his 2016 pace there with no favorite son independent siphoning off support in Utah. Biden may be ahead of Clinton's ending point in November 2016, but that is only enough to get the former vice president in range of where Barack Obama finished in the state in 2008 (both in this survey and in the FHQ averages).

NOTE: A description of the methodology behind the graduated weighted average of 2020 state-level polling that FHQ uses for these projections can be found here.

The Electoral College Spectrum1
DC-3 MA-11 (14)2	CT-7 (162)	WI-10 (252)	AK-3 (125)	IN-11 (60)
HI-4 (18)	NJ-14 (176)	PA-203 (272 | 286)	MO-10 (122)	UT-6 (49)
CA-55 (73)	OR-7 (183)	NE CD2-1 NV-6 (279 | 266)	SC-9 (112)	KY-8 (43)
VT-3 (76)	NM-5 (188)	FL-29 (308 | 259)	MT-3 (103)	AL-9 (35)
NY-29 (105)	VA-13 (201)	AZ-11 ME CD2-1 (320 | 230)	KS-6 NE CD1-1 (100)	ID-4 (26)
WA-12 (117)	CO-9 (210)	NC-15 (335 | 218)	MS-6 (93)	ND-3 (22)
ME CD1-1 MD-10 (128)	ME-2 (212)	OH-18 (203)	AR-6 (87)	SD-3 (19)
IL-20 (148)	MN-10 (222)	GA-16 (185)	NE-2 (81)	OK-7 (16)
RI-4 (152)	MI-16 (238)	IA-6 (169)	LA-8 (79)	WV-5 (9)
DE-3 (155)	NH-4 (242)	TX-38 (163)	TN-11 (71)	WY-3 NE CD3-1 (4)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. 2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Pennsylvania (Biden's toss up states plus the Pennsylvania), he would have 286 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Biden's number is on the left and Trump's is on the right in bold italics. 3 Pennsylvania is the state where Biden crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election, the tipping point state. The tipping point cell is shaded in yellow to denote that and the font color is adjusted to attempt to reflect the category in which the state is.

Even with five new polls out of that trio of Sun Belt states in the heart of the order on the Spectrum above there was little movement and certainly not enough to change the sequence of Biden states right up against the partisan line. North Carolina is still up against the line with Arizona and then Florida behind it (and Maine's second district mixed in). That is exactly where Trump has to advance to begin erasing the deficit he finds himself in with just 47 days until November 3.

No, none of those three states nor California budged on the Spectrum, but Utah switched places with Indiana, moving deeper into the Trump coalition of states. That was the only change on the day other than Nebraska's second district changing categories and thus, once again, possible changes on the Watch List below. Again, however, that says less about the state of the race in Nebraska than it does about where the second district is in the order: right on that five point line separating Lean Biden from Toss Up Biden. Expect further updates in states like Arizona and Florida to continue to affect its standing.

The rest of the list remained unchanged from a day ago.



Where things stood at FHQ on September 17 (or close to it) in...
2016
2012
2008



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NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Biden and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.

The Watch List1
State	Potential Switch
Georgia	from Toss Up Trump	to Toss Up Biden
Iowa	from Toss Up Trump	to Toss Up Biden
Mississippi	from Strong Trump	to Lean Trump
Missouri	from Lean Trump	to Toss Up Trump
Nebraska CD2	from Toss Up Biden	to Lean Biden
Nevada	from Toss Up Biden	to Lean Biden
Ohio	from Toss Up Trump	to Toss Up Biden
Pennsylvania	from Lean Biden	to Toss Up Biden
South Carolina	from Lean Trump	to Toss Up Trump
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

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Methodological Note: In past years, FHQ has tried some different ways of dealing with states with no polls or just one poll in the early rounds of these projections. It does help that the least polled states are often the least competitive. The only shortcoming is that those states may be a little off in the order in the Spectrum. In earlier cycles, a simple average of the state's three previous cycles has been used. But in 2016, FHQ strayed from that and constructed an average swing from 2012 to 2016 that was applied to states. That method, however, did little to prevent anomalies like the Kansas poll that had Clinton ahead from biasing the averages. In 2016, the early average swing in the aggregate was  too small to make much difference anyway. For 2020, FHQ has utilized an average swing among states that were around a little polled state in the rank ordering on election day in 2016. If there is just one poll in Delaware in 2020, for example, then maybe it is reasonable to account for what the comparatively greater amount of polling tells us about the changes in Connecticut, New Jersey and New Mexico. Or perhaps the polling in Iowa, Mississippi and South Carolina so far tells us a bit about what may be happening in Alaska where no public polling has been released. That will hopefully work a bit better than the overall average that may end up a bit more muted.


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Related posts:
The Electoral College Map (9/16/20)

The Electoral College Map (9/15/20)

The Electoral College Map (9/14/20)

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