Tuesday, October 25, 2016

The Electoral College Map (10/25/16)



New State Polls (10/25/16)
State
Poll
Date
Margin of Error
Sample
Clinton
Trump
Undecided
Poll Margin
FHQ Margin
Arizona
10/21-10/24
+/-4.9%
401 likely voters
45
46
3
+1
+1.12
Arkansas
10/21
+/-4.6%
463 likely voters
33
56
5
+23
+18.20
Colorado
10/20-10/22
+/-2.46%
1581 likely voters
45
43
4
+2
+4.19
Florida
10/20-10/22
+/-2.41%
1646 likely voters
46
46
5
+/-0
--
Florida
10/20-10/24
+/-2.8%
1251 likely voters
48
45
0
+3
+2.38
Idaho
10/21-10/23
+/-3.0%
1023 likely voters
23
52
9
+29
+25.16
Indiana
10/22-10/24
+/-2.3%
1596 registered voters
38
49
8
+11
+9.41
Michigan
10/23
+/-2.78%
1241 likely voters
49
41
5
+8
+6.91
Minnesota
10/20-10/22
+/-4.0%
625 likely voters
47
39
6
+8
+6.93
Nevada
10/20-10/22
+/-3.5%
826 likely voters
46
42
4
+4
--
Nevada
10/20-10/22
+/-2.68%
1332 likely voters
44
47
3
+3
--
Nevada
10/20-10/23
+/-3.5%
800 likely voters
48
41
4
+7
+1.24
North Carolina
10/20-10/22
+/-2.33%
1764 likely voters
44
47
5
+3
--
North Carolina
10/20-10/23
+/-3.5%
792 likely voters
46
39
6
+7
+1.61
Ohio
10/20-10/22
+/-2.2%
1971 likely voters
42
46
6
+4
+0.68
Pennsylvania
10/20-10/22
+/-2.19%
1997 likely voters
45
42
7
+3
+5.44
South Dakota
10/18-10/20
+/-5.0%
400 registered voters
37
44
12
+7
+12.12
Virginia
10/20-10/22
+/-2.31%
1787 likely voters
48
43
5
+5
+6.68
Wisconsin
10/20-10/22
+/- 2.31%
1795 registered voters
46
41
6
+5
+6.58


Polling Quick Hits:
Two weeks left.

The day brought with it 19 new survey releases from 15 states from across the Spectrum. Only the Strong Clinton group of states lacked any polls.


Arizona:
Monmouth's first poll in the Grand Canyon state looked a lot more like some of the head-to-head polls there throughout the year with both major party candidates in mid-40s. But this was a multi-way survey. Both have had those surveys with third party candidates included where they have pushed into the mid-40s, but not with any level of consistency (and it has rarely been both simultaneously). The one constant is that the margin is narrow, matching the overall average in the state. Arizona along with Iowa and Ohio are the three closest states at FHQ.


Arkansas:
Being the former first lady in the Natural state does not appear to be paying Clinton any dividends there. Arkansas continues to be in the right most column on the Electoral College Spectrum and the new Hendrix College poll did little to change that picture.


Colorado:
The first of the eight battleground polls from Remington is from Colorado. Generally speaking, this series is a bit more Republican-leaning than most polls in these states have been of late. There have been some close polls in the Centennial state since the first debate, but they have been outnumbered by those finding a wider Clinton advantage. Clinton's lead is only two points, but that did little to shake Colorado's position as the least competitive of the eight FHQ toss up states. It is much closer to being a Lean Clinton state than jumping the partisan line into Trump territory.


Florida:
There just is not a lot of evidence of anything other than a narrow, but durable Clinton lead in Florida.  Things look as they did four years ago in the state, but with Clinton about two points ahead of where Obama was relative to Romney in 2012. The two new polls did not change that.


Idaho:
Without more data, there is nothing yet to suggest that Evan McMullin is replicating his near parity with Trump in Utah polling in Idaho. Trump is still well ahead in the Gem state and the Republican vote there is not split like it is in Utah.


Indiana:
Indiana is like a lot of the lean states on both sides of the partisan line: one candidate is in the mid- to upper 40s while the other is hovering around the 40 percent mark. This Gravis poll fits that pattern. That trend has been more of a barrier to Trump as he has needed at least one Lean Clinton state (and all of the toss ups) to get to 270. While Clinton is in a similar position in Lean Trump states, those have not been necessary to her path to 270.


Michigan:
Trump has gained ground on Clinton in Michigan across the two Mitchell surveys out over the last two weeks. But that is of less consequence when the New York businessman continues to consistently trail there by margins within the lean range.


Minnesota:
Minnesota is a lot like Michigan but less frequently surveyed. And as of now, both are right next to each other in the Spectrum below. Like the description of lean states above, the leader in Minnesota is in the mid-40s and the trailing candidate is around 40 percent.


Nevada:
Remington provides a break in the Clinton run of polling leads in the Silver state since the first debate. But that one Trump lead does little to uproot Nevada's position as a state just slightly tipped toward the former Secretary of State.


North Carolina:
See Nevada. The story is the same in the Tar Heel state with Clinton having established a small but consistent lead since the first debate.


Ohio:
While the first debate can be seen as a turning point in some states -- like Nevada and North Carolina above -- that has not been the case in Ohio. There was a spike in Clinton support, but it was shorter lived. After the second debate -- the town hall and Trump tape -- the polls narrowed in the Buckeye state. The data are not robust in that time, but the established range across the scant polling is roughly tied to Trump +4. That change in trajectory has drawn the average closer here at FHQ, but kept Ohio just on the Clinton side of the partisan line.


Pennsylvania:
The Remington poll in Pennsylvania may be some sign of a change in direction in the Keystone state,  but the evidence since the first debate has been clear enough: Pennsylvania is a Lean Clinton state and one that has moved away from Trump in October. There has not been a poll this close since before the first debate.


South Dakota:
Polling has been light in South Dakota, but what little there has been has the Mount Rushmore state in exactly the same spot on the Electoral College Spectrum that it was in after the election in 2012. It is still a red state.


Virginia:
This Remington poll is a good one for Trump in Virginia. But since the first debate, he has been in the 30s in about three-quarters of the polls since then. That is not a winning position with two weeks to go, especially if Clinton is inching toward the 50 percent mark.


Wisconsin:
Wisconsin is much like its midwestern brethren above. Like Michigan and Minnesota, Trump is stuck around 40 percent and not showing any signs of pushing above that threshold. And with just 14 days until November 8, Clinton does not appear to be coming down to Trump's level in the polls across these states either.


--
Changes (10/25/16)
The day's flood of polling could only be felt here at FHQ on the Electoral College Spectrum. There was some shuffling among the clustered Lean Clinton states with Minnesota most noticeably jumping three spots deeper into the Clinton group of states. Meanwhile, a rare poll from South Dakota also shifted the Mount Rushmore state three positions toward Clinton and the partisan line while remaining in the Strong Trump group of states. Idaho pushed in the opposite direction on the Spectrum, moving toward the very end of the line up against neighboring Wyoming.

Both the map and the Watch List remained unchanged from a day ago.




The Electoral College Spectrum1
MD-102
(13)
RI-4
(162)
PA-20
(263)
MO-10
(126)
TN-11
(61)
HI-4
(17)
NJ-14
(176)
CO-94
(272 | 275)
AK-3
(116)
AR-6
(50)
VT-3
(20)
OR-7
(183)
FL-29
(301 | 266)
SC-9
(113)
ND-3
(44)
CA-55
(75)
NM-5
(188)
NC-15
(316 | 237)
IN-11
(104)
KY-8
(41)
MA-11
(86)
MN-10
(198)
NV-6
(322 | 222)
UT-6
(93)
NE-53
(33)
NY-29
(115)
MI-16
(214)
OH-18
(340 | 216)
MS-6
(87)
AL-9
(28)
IL-20+13
(136)
ME-23
(216)
IA-6
(198)
KS-6
(81)
WV-5
(19)
DE-3
(139)
VA-13
(229)
AZ-11
(192)
SD-3
(75)
OK-7
(14)
CT-7
(146)
WI-10
(239)
GA-16+13
(181)
LA-8
(72)
ID-4
(7)
WA-12
(158)
NH-4
(243)
TX-38
(164)
MT-3
(64)
WY-3
(3)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.

2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Colorado (all Clinton's toss up states plus Colorado), he would have 275 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Clinton's number is on the left and Trumps's is on the right in bold italics.
To keep the figure to 50 cells, Washington, DC and its three electoral votes are included in the beginning total on the Democratic side of the spectrum. The District has historically been the most Democratic state in the Electoral College.

3 Maine and Nebraska allocate electoral college votes to candidates in a more proportional manner. The statewide winner receives the two electoral votes apportioned to the state based on the two US Senate seats each state has. Additionally, the winner within a congressional district is awarded one electoral vote. Given current polling, all five Nebraska electoral votes would be allocated to Trump. In Maine, a split seems more likely. Trump leads in Maine's second congressional district while Clinton is ahead statewide and in the first district. She would receive three of the four Maine electoral votes and Trump the remaining electoral vote. Those congressional district votes are added approximately where they would fall in the Spectrum above.

4 Colorado is the state where Clinton crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. Currently, Colorado is in the Toss Up Clinton category.



NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Clinton and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.


The Watch List1
State
Switch
Colorado
from Toss Up Clinton
to Lean Clinton
Indiana
from Lean Trump
to Strong Trump
Mississippi
from Strong Trump
to Lean Trump
Ohio
from Toss Up Clinton
to Toss Up Trump
Oregon
from Lean Clinton
to Strong Clinton
Pennsylvania
from Lean Clinton
to Toss Up Clinton
Utah
from Lean Trump
to Strong Trump
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.


Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (10/24/16)

The Electoral College Map (10/23/16)

The Electoral College Map (10/22/16)

Follow FHQ on TwitterGoogle+ and Facebook or subscribe by Email.

Monday, October 24, 2016

The Electoral College Map (10/24/16)



New State Polls (10/24/16)
State
Poll
Date
Margin of Error
Sample
Clinton
Trump
Undecided
Poll Margin
FHQ Margin
Florida
10/17-10/18
--
892 likely voters
45
39
8
+6
+2.38
Georgia
10/17-10/18
--
807 likely voters
44
40
8
+4
+2.79
Illinois
10/16-10/18
+/-2.83%
1200 likely voters
51
36
5
+15
+15.84
North Carolina
10/17-10/18
--
924 likely voters
42
41
7
+1
--
North Carolina
10/21-10/22
+/-3.3%
875 likely voters
47
44
5
+3
--
North Carolina
10/20-10/23
+/-4.9%
402 likely voters
47
46
2
+1
+1.59
Virginia
10/17-10/18
--
802 likely voters
43
38
8
+5
+6.75
Washington
10/20-10/22
+/- 4.5%
502 registered voters
48
31
14
+17
+12.41


Polling Quick Hits:
15 days left.

The new work week ushered in a slew of new polls from mostly blue states. The only exception was a Clinton-favorable survey in already pink Georgia.


Florida:
The story on the Sunshine state a day ago was that Clinton had established a foothold in the mid-40s and Trump has consistently lagged just behind in the low 40s. Although the six point advantage jumps out in the new Lucid poll, Clinton is where she has tended to be in Florida while Trump slipped into the upper 30s. This one may be an outlier -- especially compared to other southern states Lucid surveyed -- but it is not that big of one.


Georgia:
Just north in the Peach state, Lucid finds a four point Clinton lead. This one mirrors the Washington Post/Survey Monkey survey from last week, but that makes it another poll that is out of step with the majority of recent survey work in Georgia. The race has narrowed in Georgia, but it continues to favor Trump in both the FHQ averages and in the bulk of the polls conducted there.


Illinois:
The polling data are nice in the Land of Lincoln, but it only confirms Illinois' position in the order of states: Strong Clinton and in the left most column of the Electoral College Spectrum.


North Carolina:
Three more polls in North Carolina and three more narrow Clinton leads. This has been the consistent picture in the Tar Heel state since the first debate. The edge is small but durable for Clinton. Monmouth was last in the state in late August during a Clinton high point and saw little movement (mostly away from undecided/third party). The PPP survey may be more instructive. Since the last multi-way poll the Raleigh-based firm conducted there just before the first debate, there has been a five point shift toward Clinton.


Virginia:
It is hard to imagine a six point lead in Florida and a five point lead in Virginia. But that is what Lucid found in its southern swing last week when it was in the field just before the final debate. Like the Florida poll, however, this one is a study in contrasts. Trump is on the upper end of the range he has established in the Old Dominion while Clinton is just above her post-debate season low. This is polling variation and nothing more.


Washington:
See Illinois. A new poll is welcome, but it only confirms what is already known/expected of the Evergreen state: a Clinton lead.


--
Changes (10/24/16)
The only changes were subtle ones on the Electoral College Spectrum. Virginia traded spots with Maine and Washington and Rhode Island also switched places. Both moved, but neither changed categories. Importantly, while the closest states in the polls today -- Florida, Georgia and North Carolina -- held the line on the Spectrum, all inched toward Clinton.

Both the map and the Watch List remained unchanged from a day ago.




The Electoral College Spectrum1
MD-102
(13)
RI-4
(162)
PA-20
(263)
MO-10
(126)
SD-3
(53)
HI-4
(17)
NJ-14
(176)
CO-94
(272 | 275)
AK-3
(116)
AR-6
(50)
VT-3
(20)
OR-7
(183)
FL-29
(301 | 266)
SC-9
(113)
ND-3
(44)
CA-55
(75)
NM-5
(188)
NC-15
(316 | 237)
IN-11
(104)
KY-8
(41)
MA-11
(86)
MI-16
(204)
NV-6
(322 | 222)
UT-6
(93)
NE-53
(33)
NY-29
(115)
ME-23
(206)
OH-18
(340 | 216)
MS-6
(87)
AL-9
(28)
IL-20+13
(136)
VA-13
(219)
IA-6
(198)
KS-6
(81)
ID-4
(19)
DE-3
(139)
MN-10
(229)
AZ-11
(192)
LA-8
(75)
WV-5
(15)
CT-7
(146)
WI-10
(239)
GA-16+13
(181)
MT-3
(67)
OK-7
(10)
WA-12
(158)
NH-4
(243)
TX-38
(164)
TN-11
(64)
WY-3
(3)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.

2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Colorado (all Clinton's toss up states plus Colorado), he would have 275 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Clinton's number is on the left and Trumps's is on the right in bold italics.
To keep the figure to 50 cells, Washington, DC and its three electoral votes are included in the beginning total on the Democratic side of the spectrum. The District has historically been the most Democratic state in the Electoral College.

3 Maine and Nebraska allocate electoral college votes to candidates in a more proportional manner. The statewide winner receives the two electoral votes apportioned to the state based on the two US Senate seats each state has. Additionally, the winner within a congressional district is awarded one electoral vote. Given current polling, all five Nebraska electoral votes would be allocated to Trump. In Maine, a split seems more likely. Trump leads in Maine's second congressional district while Clinton is ahead statewide and in the first district. She would receive three of the four Maine electoral votes and Trump the remaining electoral vote. Those congressional district votes are added approximately where they would fall in the Spectrum above.

4 Colorado is the state where Clinton crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. Currently, Colorado is in the Toss Up Clinton category.



NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Clinton and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.


The Watch List1
State
Switch
Colorado
from Toss Up Clinton
to Lean Clinton
Indiana
from Lean Trump
to Strong Trump
Mississippi
from Strong Trump
to Lean Trump
Ohio
from Toss Up Clinton
to Toss Up Trump
Oregon
from Lean Clinton
to Strong Clinton
Pennsylvania
from Lean Clinton
to Toss Up Clinton
Utah
from Lean Trump
to Strong Trump
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.


Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (10/23/16)

The Electoral College Map (10/22/16)

The Electoral College Map (10/21/16)

Follow FHQ on TwitterGoogle+ and Facebook or subscribe by Email.

Sunday, October 23, 2016

The Electoral College Map (10/23/16)



New State Polls (10/23/16)
State
Poll
Date
Margin of Error
Sample
Clinton
Trump
Undecided
Poll Margin
FHQ Margin
Florida
10/20-10/21
+/- 3.6%
1042 likely voters
46
43
3
+3
+2.30
Iowa
10/7-10/10
--
917 likely voters
41
37
9
+4
+1.03
Ohio
10/7-10/10
--
1304 likely voters
44
39
9
+5
+0.80
Oklahoma
10/18-10/20
+/- 4.26%
530 likely voters
30
60
6
+30
+24.91
Texas
10/20-10/21
+/- 4.4%
1031 likely voters
43
46
3
+3
+6.77


Polling Quick Hits:
With just 16 days until Election Day there were just a trickle of polls to close out the weekend. Only two -- a pair of polls from YouGov -- were in the field completely following the final presidential debate. The rest were either older (Lucid surveys of Iowa and Ohio) or straddled the third debate (Sooner Poll).

Florida:
There have been Florida surveys that have favored Trump since the first debate, but they are few and far between. The latest in the Sunshine state from YouGov is yet another poll to add to the overwhelming evidence that Clinton is ahead in the two to four point range. Clinton has carved out a consistent spot in the mid-40s while Trump has maintained a position in the low 40s with little variation. This survey is consistent with that.


Iowa:
If leads have been atypical in Florida polls for Trump, the same is true in Iowa but for Clinton. This difference between the two states is that it is rare to see a day pass without a new poll from the Sunshine state. Iowa, on the other hand, has mostly witnessed a range from tied to +8 for Trump since the beginning of September. This older, internet-based poll from Lucid in the Hawkeye state is a bit of an aberration in that it finds Clinton ahead. But it is one of just a handful of polls in the state in that September to October window. There have only been a few surveys but that has not meant wild variation in the averages. Instead, Iowa has been stuck in neutral favoring Trump but by a margin less than one and a half points. Any marked shift toward Clinton could bring Iowa to her side of the partisan line, but that is anything but apparent at this point.


Ohio:
The Lucid poll hit in a sequence of the polling in Ohio following the first debate and the Trump tapes where Clinton was reeling off a series of survey wins. In the time since, however, the polling has narrowed somewhat (or has become more variable in any event). It is less that the polling has narrowed then it is that the average here at FHQ had shrunk. Clinton's grasp on the lead has been tenuous but persistent in the Buckeye state. That remains so even with the addition of a good poll there for the former Secretary of State.


Oklahoma:
No surprises in the Sooner state. Oklahoma still resides at the far lower right end of the Electoral College Spectrum. The latest Sooner Poll only confirmed that positioning.


Texas:
The Lone Star state has taken up a position well within the heart of the Lean Trump area almost the whole cycle. That was already about half of the margin by which Romney won the state in 2012. In other words, if Texas is a harbinger, then there was already evidence that the overall map had shifted some toward the Democrats. But in October that Lean area advantage has given way to a sequence of surveys in Texas that has roughly halved that Trump advantage. Those five to nine point polling leads of the summer are now two to four points. Now, the average here at FHQ has trailed off more slowly, but it has gradually crept down and now Texas is the closest of the small number of Lean Trump states; the one on the Lean/Toss Up line. The odds are that Texas remains red on Election Day, but if the conversation is whether the Lone Star state is going to turn blue, then the Electoral College majority is already in the Democrats' possession.


--
Changes (10/23/16)
The addition of the Lucid Iowa poll decreased the Hawkeye state average enough to push Iowa past Arizona and up against the partisan line. Texas, too, moved in the direction of the partisan line, swapping places with Missouri on the Electoral College Spectrum. Oklahoma moved in the opposite direction. Now, only Wyoming separates Oklahoma from being the reddest of red states.

Both the map and the Watch List remained unchanged from a day ago.




The Electoral College Spectrum1
MD-102
(13)
WA-12
(162)
PA-20
(263)
MO-10
(126)
SD-3
(53)
HI-4
(17)
NJ-14
(176)
CO-94
(272 | 275)
AK-3
(116)
AR-6
(50)
VT-3
(20)
OR-7
(183)
FL-29
(301 | 266)
SC-9
(113)
ND-3
(44)
CA-55
(75)
NM-5
(188)
NC-15
(316 | 237)
IN-11
(104)
KY-8
(41)
MA-11
(86)
MI-16
(204)
NV-6
(322 | 222)
UT-6
(93)
NE-53
(33)
NY-29+13
(116)
VA-13
(217)
OH-18
(340 | 216)
MS-6
(87)
AL-9
(28)
IL-20
(136)
ME-23
(219)
IA-6
(198)
KS-6
(81)
ID-4
(19)
DE-3
(139)
MN-10
(229)
AZ-11
(192)
LA-8
(75)
WV-5
(15)
CT-7
(146)
WI-10
(239)
GA-16+13
(181)
MT-3
(67)
OK-7
(10)
RI-4
(150)
NH-4
(243)
TX-38
(164)
TN-11
(64)
WY-3
(3)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.

2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Colorado (all Clinton's toss up states plus Colorado), he would have 275 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Clinton's number is on the left and Trumps's is on the right in bold italics.
To keep the figure to 50 cells, Washington, DC and its three electoral votes are included in the beginning total on the Democratic side of the spectrum. The District has historically been the most Democratic state in the Electoral College.

3 Maine and Nebraska allocate electoral college votes to candidates in a more proportional manner. The statewide winner receives the two electoral votes apportioned to the state based on the two US Senate seats each state has. Additionally, the winner within a congressional district is awarded one electoral vote. Given current polling, all five Nebraska electoral votes would be allocated to Trump. In Maine, a split seems more likely. Trump leads in Maine's second congressional district while Clinton is ahead statewide and in the first district. She would receive three of the four Maine electoral votes and Trump the remaining electoral vote. Those congressional district votes are added approximately where they would fall in the Spectrum above.

4 Colorado is the state where Clinton crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. Currently, Colorado is in the Toss Up Clinton category.



NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Clinton and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.


The Watch List1
State
Switch
Colorado
from Toss Up Clinton
to Lean Clinton
Indiana
from Lean Trump
to Strong Trump
Mississippi
from Strong Trump
to Lean Trump
Ohio
from Toss Up Clinton
to Toss Up Trump
Oregon
from Lean Clinton
to Strong Clinton
Pennsylvania
from Lean Clinton
to Toss Up Clinton
Utah
from Lean Trump
to Strong Trump
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.


Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (10/22/16)

The Electoral College Map (10/21/16)

The Electoral College Map (10/20/16)

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