Wednesday, October 12, 2016

The Electoral College Map (10/12/16)



New State Polls (10/12/16)
State
Poll
Date
Margin of Error
Sample
Clinton
Trump
Undecided
Poll Margin
FHQ Margin
Florida
10/10-10/11
+/- 4.2%
533 likely voters
47
44
3
+3
+2.09
Maine
10/7-10/9
+/- 3.3%
892 likely voters
44
36
8
+8
+6.86
Maine CD1
10/7-10/9
+/- 4.5%
468 likely voters
49
32
8
+17
+18.49
Maine CD2
10/7-10/9
+/- 4.8%
424 likely voters
39
40
8
+1
+4.53
Michigan
10/10-10/11
+/- 4.0%
600 likely voters
42.2
30.6
11.6
+11.6
+6.53
Missouri
10/9-10/11
+/- 4.9%
409 likely voters
41
46
5
+5
+7.06
Nevada
10/10-10/11
+/- 3.1%
986 likely voters
47
43
10
+4
+0.45
Ohio
10/9-10/11
+/- 3.0%
1152 likely voters
43.2
34.4
10.2
+8.8
+1.01
Utah
10/10-10/11
+/- 4.38%
500 likely voters
26
26
7
+/-0
+11.54
Wisconsin
10/6-10/9
+/- 3.9%
878 likely voters
44
37
5
+7
+6.33


Polling Quick Hits:
The midweek mark brought a couple of polls (Maine and Wisconsin) that were in the field over an eventful weekend bookended with the Friday Trump Tapes and the second presidential debate on Sunday night. Another two (Missouri and Ohio) commenced the night of the debate and the remaining four (Florida, Michigan, Nevada and Utah) were out completely after the tape and debate. Not to belabor the point, but that is at least something on the state level from which the effects of those events might begin to be felt.

The bottom line is that overall there is a bit of a continued nudge toward Clinton, but there is also not a consistent pattern in terms of how that is occurring. Six of the polls are part of a series the last poll of which was in the field since the conventions. The trendlines are not consistent. In some cases, Clinton gains and Trump holds steady (Maine and Wisconsin) while in others, Trump loses ground while Clinton holds pat (Florida and Michigan). Both slightly gained in the PPP survey in Nevada and Trump gained against expectations as Clinton dropped off some in Missouri.

But let's not get carried away about six observations. The early returns are mixed on the state level. More polls are on the way.

Florida:
The first debate was something of a turning point in the polling in Florida. Since that time Clinton has only trailed twice out of eleven surveys (and even the online panel from UPI has shifted in Clinton's direction since its last wave there). The result is a more entrenched and durable Clinton advantage in the Sunshine state.


Maine:
Changes (October 12)
StateBeforeAfter
Maine CD2Lean TrumpToss Up Trump
In the Pine Tree state, Clinton's edge is expanding statewide, but the real story is how the second congressional district has continued to narrow with the addition of the last few polls there.The MPRC poll was enough to tip the district over the line into the Toss Up Trump area. Meanwhile the first district is deep enough into the left most column on the Spectrum below to be safely Clinton, and statewide the margin continues to be lodged in the Lean Clinton category.


Michigan:
The biggest change in Michigan across the Glengariff surveys over the last two weeks has been Trump losing ground. Clinton, however, was not the beneficiary. Instead almost all of the five points Trump dropped were picked up by the two main third party candidates and the undecided category. On some level, that is something to watch in Michigan when future polls are released: Is Trump losing ground while Clinton remains stationary? That Clinton is hovering around the 40 percent would be problematic if Trump was gaining. But the former Secretary of State has led there almost wire to wire at this point and Trump has yet to capitalize.


Missouri:
The one bright spot for Trump on the day is in the Show-Me state where the Monmouth poll finds Trump ahead by a five point margin that keeps the state just where it has been: in the Lean Trump area. The margin is less noteworthy than the trajectory over Monmouth surveys. Trump has grown his support in the time since the firm's last poll there in August. But that poll was out at the same time as a number of other polls finding a similarly narrow divide. The most recent polls in Missouri have been pushing double digit Trump leads. And this poll represents a tightening (rather than the reverse when using the earlier Monmouth poll) comparatively. Still, at this point, for Trump to lose Missouri would require a significant shift against him.


Nevada:
Similar to the situation in Florida, Clinton has yet to trail in a poll of Nevada since the first debate. Her lead there is narrow but consistent in the FHQ averages. There is less data in Nevada, but that pattern is similar to the way that Obama's lead in the home stretch in Florida in 2012 was small but durable if not consistent.


Ohio:
Baldwin Wallace was last in the Field in Ohio in February. Then, Donald Trump had a modest two point lead over Clinton. But now, the poll finds Clinton up nine. That may or may not be an outlier when all the dust settles on the events surrounding the second debate (if it settles). However, while polling has shifted back in Clinton's direction since the first debate, it has not pushed up to nine points anywhere else. That may be the new normal in the Buckeye state, but that is not clear yet.


Utah:
Some will focus on the tie between Clinton and Trump in Utah while others will turn their attention to the fact that Evan McMullin is nipping at their heels in the lower 20s. But the interesting thing is the divergence between the multi-way polls that have consistently found both candidates below 40 percent in the Beehive state while some of the online panel surveys have show a much (much) wider gap. That is mainly a function of the latter setting up the survey question as a binary choice that has pushed Trump's support up. It has also pushed his average share support up in the FHQ formula, keeping Utah just inside the Strong side of the Lean/Strong line for Trump. That is true at other sites as well. Utah looks to be narrowing, but by how much depending on what polls are included in the mix.


Wisconsin:
Finally in the Badger state, Clinton gained over the last Marquette survey there. Trump, on the other hand, was steady in the upper 30s. Like Michigan, Wisconsin is one of those Rust Belt-type states where the battle for Trump is getting above the 40 percent mark. Instead of moving up with under four weeks to go, Trump is either stuck in neutral or in reverse in those two states. Then again, both are well enough into the Lean Clinton category as to make peeling one or both of them off a real reach.


--
Yes, Maine-02 slid into the Toss Up Trump category, but Ohio also moved off the Watch List. The Buckeye state is no longer on the cusp of jumping over the partisan line into Trump territory (at this point anyway). On the Spectrum, Utah and Michigan shifted a spot each, but that was the extent of the change triggered by the addition of these polls.




The Electoral College Spectrum1
MD-102
(13)
WA-12
(162)
NH-4
(263)
SC-9
(154)
MT-3
(53)
HI-4
(17)
NJ-14
(176)
CO-94
(272 | 275)
AK-3
(145)
AR-6
(50)
VT-3
(20)
OR-7
(183)
FL-29
(301 | 266)
TX-38
(142)
ND-3
(44)
CA-55
(75)
NM-5
(188)
NC-15
(316 | 237)
MS-6
(104)
KY-8
(41)
MA-11
(86)
ME-23
(190)
OH-18
(334 | 222)
IN-11
(98)
NE-53
(33)
NY-29+13
(116)
MN-10
(200)
NV-6
(340 | 204)
UT-6
(87)
AL-9
(28)
IL-20
(136)
MI-16
(216)
IA-6
(198)
KS-6
(81)
OK-7
(19)
DE-3
(139)
WI-10
(226)
AZ-11
(192)
LA-8
(75)
ID-4
(12)
CT-7
(146)
VA-13
(239)
GA-16+13
(181)
TN-11
(67)
WV-5
(8)
RI-4
(150)
PA-20
(259)
MO-10
(164)
SD-3
(56)
WY-3
(3)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.

2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Colorado (all Clinton's toss up states plus Colorado), he would have 275 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Clinton's number is on the left and Trumps's is on the right in bold italics.
To keep the figure to 50 cells, Washington, DC and its three electoral votes are included in the beginning total on the Democratic side of the spectrum. The District has historically been the most Democratic state in the Electoral College.

3 Maine and Nebraska allocate electoral college votes to candidates in a more proportional manner. The statewide winner receives the two electoral votes apportioned to the state based on the two US Senate seats each state has. Additionally, the winner within a congressional district is awarded one electoral vote. Given current polling, all five Nebraska electoral votes would be allocated to Trump. In Maine, a split seems more likely. Trump leads in Maine's second congressional district while Clinton is ahead statewide and in the first district. She would receive three of the four Maine electoral votes and Trump the remaining electoral vote. Those congressional district votes are added approximately where they would fall in the Spectrum above.

4 Colorado is the state where Clinton crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. Currently, Colorado is in the Toss Up Clinton category.



NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Clinton and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.


The Watch List1
State
Switch
Maine CD2
from Toss Up Trump
to Lean Trump
Mississippi
from Strong Trump
to Lean Trump
Nevada
from Toss Up Clinton
to Toss Up Trump
New Hampshire
from Lean Clinton
to Toss Up Clinton
New Jersey
from Strong Clinton
to Lean Clinton
Oregon
from Lean Clinton
to Strong Clinton
Pennsylvania
from Lean Clinton
to Toss Up Clinton
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.


Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (10/11/16)

The Electoral College Map (10/10/16)

The Electoral College Map (10/9/16)

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Tuesday, October 11, 2016

The Electoral College Map (10/11/16)



New State Polls (10/11/16)
State
Poll
Date
Margin of Error
Sample
Clinton
Trump
Undecided
Poll Margin
FHQ Margin
Pennsylvania
10/4-10/9
+/- 3.5%
764 likely voters
44
40
8
+4
+5.32
Virginia
10/2-10/6
+/- 3.4%
814 likely voters
45
36
10
+9
+6.09


Polling Quick Hits:
Though there is a new Susquehanna poll out that was in the field after the Friday Trump tape dump and finished up the evening of the second debate in St. Louis, we're still playing the waiting game in terms of how the picture of the race looks in the state-level polling. But if the handful of national polls are any indication, the state polls are likely to move in the direction of Clinton. That news is most relevant in Iowa and Arizona, a couple of Toss Up states tipped toward Trump and could encompass more. Georgia is also right there on the Electoral College Spectrum below where an additional three point swing toward Clinton -- on top of the six point edge the former Secretary of State had before the tape -- could bring it into play.

Pennsylvania:
Regular Keystone state pollster, Susquehanna has not been active there since just after the conventions wrapped up. The nine point Clinton advantage in early August has given way to a four point lead now. And while that Susquehanna survey was consistent with much of the other polling in Pennsylvania after the conventions, that convergence is less clear now. Some post-first debate polls have shown a widening gap there, pushing into the upper single digits. However, others -- namely the recent Quinnipiac poll -- have been around the Lean/Toss Up line around four or five points. As always, it will take more data to determine where things stand, but the one thing that can be said is that even if the margin is somewhat volatile, who is leading is not. Clinton has only trailed in the UPI polls since mid-July. In every other survey, she has been ahead.


Virginia:
With just a handful of exceptions, once Virginia settled in following the convention season bump Clinton got in the polls, it staying in a reliable five to nine point range and has not really moved. Unlike most states -- New Hampshire, too was like this -- the Old Dominion weathered the narrowing phase of this race during the back half of September in the lead up to the first debate. That may yet change, but there is no evidence that it has yet. And that is even more true across the Roanoke series of polls. Since the late September poll the college conducted, there has been a net swing of two points; one point away from Trump and toward Clinton.


--
These two polls were more confirmation of Pennsylvania's and Virginia's positions than anything else: firm leans toward Clinton as of now. Neither changed on the map or budged on the Spectrum, but Virginia did slide off the Watch List (no longer within a point of the Lean to Toss Up line).




The Electoral College Spectrum1
MD-102
(13)
WA-12
(162)
NH-4
(263)
SC-9
(154)
MT-3
(53)
HI-4
(17)
NJ-14
(176)
CO-94
(272 | 275)
AK-3
(145)
AR-6
(50)
VT-3
(20)
OR-7
(183)
FL-29
(301 | 266)
TX-38
(142)
ND-3
(44)
CA-55
(75)
NM-5
(188)
NC-15
(316 | 237)
MS-6
(104)
KY-8
(41)
MA-11
(86)
ME-23
(190)
OH-18
(334 | 222)
IN-11
(98)
NE-53
(33)
NY-29+13
(116)
MN-10
(200)
NV-6
(340 | 204)
KS-6
(87)
AL-9
(28)
IL-20
(136)
WI-10
(210)
IA-6
(198)
UT-6
(81)
OK-7
(19)
DE-3
(139)
MI-16
(226)
AZ-11
(192)
LA-8
(75)
ID-4
(12)
CT-7
(146)
VA-13
(239)
GA-16
(181)
TN-11
(67)
WV-5
(8)
RI-4
(150)
PA-20
(259)
MO-10+13
(165)
SD-3
(56)
WY-3
(3)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.

2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Colorado (all Clinton's toss up states plus Colorado), he would have 275 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Clinton's number is on the left and Trumps's is on the right in bold italics.
To keep the figure to 50 cells, Washington, DC and its three electoral votes are included in the beginning total on the Democratic side of the spectrum. The District has historically been the most Democratic state in the Electoral College.

3 Maine and Nebraska allocate electoral college votes to candidates in a more proportional manner. The statewide winner receives the two electoral votes apportioned to the state based on the two US Senate seats each state has. Additionally, the winner within a congressional district is awarded one electoral vote. Given current polling, all five Nebraska electoral votes would be allocated to Trump. In Maine, a split seems more likely. Trump leads in Maine's second congressional district while Clinton is ahead statewide and in the first district. She would receive three of the four Maine electoral votes and Trump the remaining electoral vote. Those congressional district votes are added approximately where they would fall in the Spectrum above.

4 Colorado is the state where Clinton crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. Currently, Colorado is in the Toss Up Clinton category.



NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Clinton and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.


The Watch List1
State
Switch
Maine CD2
from Lean Trump
to Toss Up Trump
Mississippi
from Strong Trump
to Lean Trump
Nevada
from Toss Up Clinton
to Toss Up Trump
New Hampshire
from Lean Clinton
to Toss Up Clinton
New Jersey
from Strong Clinton
to Lean Clinton
Ohio
from Toss Up Clinton
to Toss Up Trump
Oregon
from Lean Clinton
to Strong Clinton
Pennsylvania
from Lean Clinton
to Toss Up Clinton
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.


Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (10/10/16)

The Electoral College Map (10/9/16)

The Electoral College Map (10/8/16)

Follow FHQ on TwitterGoogle+ and Facebook or subscribe by Email.

Monday, October 10, 2016

The Electoral College Map (10/10/16)



New State Polls (10/10/16)
State
Poll
Date
Margin of Error
Sample
Clinton
Trump
Undecided
Poll Margin
FHQ Margin
Alaska
9/28-10/2
+/- 3.8%
660 registered voters
30.6
36.1
9.3
+5.5
+8.11
North Carolina
10/1-10/6
+/- 4.5%
479 likely voters
43
42
6
+1
+1.28
Wisconsin
10/4-10/5
+/- 4.4%
500 registered voters
43
35
12
+8
+6.29


Polling Quick Hits:
Another batch of pre-second debate polls to start the work week.

Alaska:
Here's another Alaska poll with both major party candidates below 40 percent. The Alaska Survey Research poll is consistent with the handful of Moore polls -- including the most recent one -- released throughout the year in the Last Frontier. The only dissent there is from the series of online surveys from UPI that have shown a wider pro-Trump margin. Regardless, Trump settling anywhere below 40 percent is at least (around) 15 percent behind Romney in Alaska in 2012.


North Carolina:
The North Carolina story remains the same: another day brings another Clinton lead. This is the seventh poll (out the last eight) released since the first debate to find the former Secretary of State ahead. That streak has built a small but durable, one that had briefly sunk below the one point mark before the first debate.


Wisconsin:
Loras has had outliers on their first couple of stops in other midwestern states (Illinois and Iowa) so far this year. This one has that feel as well as compared to the other polls in the Badger state leading up to the second debate. Rather than being a couple of points below the FHQ graduated weighted average in Wisconsin (like some recent polls have been), this one is about two points above that mark. The result is the same: Wisconsin stays about a quarter of point off the Watch List.


--
Only three new polls added in means minimal change. Indeed, Wisconsin flips spots with Michigan on the Spectrum again and that is it. Every thing else -- the map, the rest of the Spectrum and Watch List -- held steady.




The Electoral College Spectrum1
MD-102
(13)
WA-12
(162)
NH-4
(263)
SC-9
(154)
MT-3
(53)
HI-4
(17)
NJ-14
(176)
CO-94
(272 | 275)
AK-3
(145)
AR-6
(50)
VT-3
(20)
OR-7
(183)
FL-29
(301 | 266)
TX-38
(142)
ND-3
(44)
CA-55
(75)
NM-5
(188)
NC-15
(316 | 237)
MS-6
(104)
KY-8
(41)
MA-11
(86)
ME-23
(190)
OH-18
(334 | 222)
IN-11
(98)
NE-53
(33)
NY-29+13
(116)
MN-10
(200)
NV-6
(340 | 204)
KS-6
(87)
AL-9
(28)
IL-20
(136)
WI-10
(210)
IA-6
(198)
UT-6
(81)
OK-7
(19)
DE-3
(139)
MI-16
(226)
AZ-11
(192)
LA-8
(75)
ID-4
(12)
CT-7
(146)
VA-13
(239)
GA-16
(181)
TN-11
(67)
WV-5
(8)
RI-4
(150)
PA-20
(259)
MO-10+13
(165)
SD-3
(56)
WY-3
(3)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.

2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Colorado (all Clinton's toss up states plus Colorado), he would have 275 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Clinton's number is on the left and Trumps's is on the right in bold italics.
To keep the figure to 50 cells, Washington, DC and its three electoral votes are included in the beginning total on the Democratic side of the spectrum. The District has historically been the most Democratic state in the Electoral College.

3 Maine and Nebraska allocate electoral college votes to candidates in a more proportional manner. The statewide winner receives the two electoral votes apportioned to the state based on the two US Senate seats each state has. Additionally, the winner within a congressional district is awarded one electoral vote. Given current polling, all five Nebraska electoral votes would be allocated to Trump. In Maine, a split seems more likely. Trump leads in Maine's second congressional district while Clinton is ahead statewide and in the first district. She would receive three of the four Maine electoral votes and Trump the remaining electoral vote. Those congressional district votes are added approximately where they would fall in the Spectrum above.

4 Colorado is the state where Clinton crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. Currently, Colorado is in the Toss Up Clinton category.



NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Clinton and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.


The Watch List1
State
Switch
Maine CD2
from Lean Trump
to Toss Up Trump
Mississippi
from Strong Trump
to Lean Trump
Nevada
from Toss Up Clinton
to Toss Up Trump
New Hampshire
from Lean Clinton
to Toss Up Clinton
New Jersey
from Strong Clinton
to Lean Clinton
Ohio
from Toss Up Clinton
to Toss Up Trump
Oregon
from Lean Clinton
to Strong Clinton
Pennsylvania
from Lean Clinton
to Toss Up Clinton
Virginia
from Lean Clinton
to Toss Up Clinton
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.


Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (10/9/16)

The Electoral College Map (10/8/16)

The Electoral College Map (10/7/16)

Follow FHQ on TwitterGoogle+ and Facebook or subscribe by Email.