Monday, September 26, 2016

The Electoral College Map (9/26/16)



New State Polls (9/26/16)
State
Poll
Date
Margin of Error
Sample
Clinton
Trump
Undecided
Poll Margin
FHQ Margin
Arizona
9/20-9/22
+/- 4.12%
550 registered voters
38
40
14
+2
+1.95
Colorado
9/22-9/23
+/- 3.5%
799 registered voters
37
41
10
+4
--
Colorado
9/20-9/25
+/- 3.5%
784 likely voters
41
42
0
+1
+3.14
Florida
9/16-9/20
+/- 4.0%
617 likely voters
43
41
6
+2
+1.96
Iowa
9/20-9/22
+/- 4.4%
491 likely voters
38
38
14
+/-0
+0.93
Louisiana
9/22-9/24
+/- 3.3%
905 likely voters
35
45
13
+10
+13.84
Massachusetts
9/15-9/20
+/- 4.3%
700 likely voters
47
31
5
+16
+20.77
Minnesota
9/16-9/20
+/- 4.0%
625 likely voters
46
39
6
+7
+8.01
New Hampshire
9/20-9/25
+/- 4.2%
522 registered voters
46
42
5
+4
+5.40
New York
9/21-9/23
+/- 3.8%
676 likely voters
52
31
3
+22
+20.15
North Carolina
9/17-9/22
+/- 4.9%
404 likely voters
43
42
6
+1
--
North Carolina
9/23
+/- 3.7%
694 likely voters
44
43
5
+1
+1.05
Ohio
9/15-9/22
--
652 registered voters
40
37
2
+3
--
Ohio
9/22-9/23
+/- 3.4%
850 registered voters
42
43
8
+1
+0.80
Pennsylvania
9/21-9/22
+/- 4.4%
500 likely voters
45
43
4
+2
--
Pennsylvania
9/20-9/25
+/- 3.5%
771 likely voters
45
44
0
+1
+5.27
Virginia
9/15-9/23
+/- 3.9%
1003 likely voters
39
33
2
+6
+6.21


Polling Quick Hits:
Quite a few firms were seemingly attempting to get some last minute, pre-debate surveys in the can to set the before of the first debate before and after. There were 17 new polls in 13 states to be released on the day debate season is set to kickoff at Hofstra.

On to the truly quick hits...

Arizona:
Arizona really has not budged all that much in September. There are exceptions, but Trump has consistently been around 40 percent and Clinton in the upper 30s. That that type of margin keeps popping up says there is something to it, but also that Trump modest lead is real though not expanding.


Colorado:
Another day, another couple of close polls in Colorado. The Gravis and CNN polls were not only close, but had Trump ahead. Still, this is one where both candidates are stuck around 40 percent. If the third party numbers hold up in the Centennial state, things might stay close and something in the low 40s might take the state. For now, though, the margin is quickly narrowing.


Florida:
The Sunshine state has been a ray of light for Clinton over the last week or so. Yes, the polling has been back and forth, but the former Secretary has not fallen behind for a series of polls in Florida as she has in other states -- Iowa, Nevada and perhaps Ohio -- that have closed more quickly of late (or pushed over the partisan line into Trump territory). It should be said, however, that the margin in Florida here at FHQ has dipped below two points for the first time in a while, but just barely.


Iowa:
Loras has not had a good track record in Iowa during the 2016 cycle. The firm's last poll in the Hawkeye state from June had Clinton up double digits during a period in which narrow leads were the order of the day. Now, the latest update has Trump down in the 30s for the first time in any poll since just after the conventions in the midst of a series of polls that have had him squarely in the mid-40s. The Clinton number looks consistent, but this one is likely another outlier.


Louisiana:
JMC Analytics was back in the field in the Pelican state and found a tighter margin since its July poll. Regardless, this is a red state with no real sign of moderating. Trump may be lagging Romney's pace in the Louisiana but remains comfortably ahead.


Massachusetts:
The same thing could be said in Massachusetts for Clinton. Dipping into the 40s in the Bay state is eye-popping on some level for a Democratic candidate. Of course, that stings less when that candidate is still comfortably up.


Minnesota:
At this point Minnesota is no closer for Republicans than it was in 2012. The current eight point margin here at FHQ mirrors the margin on Election Day four years ago. The difference is that there continues to be a pretty healthy level of undecideds in the Land of 10,000 Lakes that could change that in next six weeks. But the evidence thus far is that this is yet another Lean Clinton state where Trump is finding it difficult to get to 40 percent while Clinton is camped out in the mid-40s.


New York:
Nope, New York still isn't a swing state.


North Carolina:
Two new polls in North Carolina both found Clinton up one in the Tar Heel state. Like Florida, the polling has bounced around in North Carolina but within a more narrow range. The result is about the same, however: Clinton up narrowly here at FHQ.


Ohio:
Clinton may be downsizing in Ohio (at least in terms of her presence in the state), but today was a day that found her on the plus side of 40 percent in a couple of new polls there. That is a break from the pattern that had emerged in the Buckeye state. Trump has mostly been in the low to mid-40s since  September 11 and Clinton trailing around if not below 40. Both polls stop the march toward a tie in the averages here, but Ohio is still very close. Only Nevada is closer.


Pennsylvania:
If breaking 40 is the main issue for Trump in the Lean Clinton states, then that bubble may have been busted. New surveys from Harper and CNN in the Keystone state find the New York businessman back in the 40s for the first time since August (with just one exception from IPSOS). This is the first CNN poll in Pennsylvania so it is difficult to get a good read on the context, but the Harper poll has Clinton stationary and Trump gaining four points since the last poll the firm conducted there.

...in March. Of course, that was a period when the few polls to come out of Pennsylvania found Trump in the low to mid-30s (during primary season).


Virginia:
Finally in Virginia, aside from the high third party presence in the new Christopher Newport survey,  the margin looks about right relative to the FHQ average for the Old Dominion. That stands at about six points, around where most of the polls have been there over the last couple of weeks.

--
There was a lot of new data to usher in the new week, but not much in the way of changes here at FHQ. All of the states with new polling information stayed in place on the map. However, Massachusetts and Pennsylvania each moved one cell close to the partisan line on the Spectrum and Colorado moved off the Watch List. The Centennial state is now in the heart of the Toss Up Clinton category.




The Electoral College Spectrum1
HI-42
(7)
NJ-14
(175)
ME-4
(264)
MS-6
(126)
TN-11
(56)
MD-10
(17)
DE-3
(178)
CO-93
(273 | 274)
MO-10
(120)
AR-6
(45)
VT-3
(20)
NM-5
(183)
FL-29
(302 | 265)
SC-9
(110)
SD-3
(39)
MA-11
(31)
MN-10
(193)
NC-15
(317 | 236)
AK-3
(101)
ND-3
(36)
CA-55
(86)
WI-10
(203)
OH-18
(335 | 221)
KS-6
(98)
ID-4
(33)
NY-29
(115)
MI-16
(219)
NV-6
(203)
UT-6
(92)
NE-5
(29)
IL-20
(135)
VA-13
(232)
IA-6
(197)
IN-11
(86)
OK-7
(24)
WA-12
(147)
NH-4
(236)
AZ-11
(191)
MT-3
(75)
WV-5
(17)
CT-17
(154)
PA-20
(256)
GA-16
(180)
KY-8
(72)
AL-9
(12)
OR-7
(161)
RI-4
(260)
TX-38
(164)
LA-8
(64)
WY-3
(3)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.

2 
The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Colorado (all Clinton's toss up states plus Colorado), he would have 274 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Clinton's number is on the left and Trumps's is on the right in bold italics.

To keep the figure to 50 cells, Washington, DC and its three electoral votes are included in the beginning total on the Democratic side of the spectrum. The District has historically been the most Democratic state in the Electoral College.

3 Colorado
 is the state where Clinton crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. Currently, Colorado is in the Toss Up Clinton category.



NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Clinton and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.


The Watch List1
State
Switch
Delaware
from Strong Clinton
to Lean Clinton
Indiana
from Strong Trump
to Lean Trump
Iowa
from Toss Up Trump
to Toss Up Clinton
Maine
from Toss Up Clinton
to Lean Clinton
Nevada
from Toss Up Trump
to Toss Up Clinton
New Hampshire
from Lean Clinton
to Toss Up Clinton
New Jersey
from Strong Clinton
to Lean Clinton
Ohio
from Toss Up Clinton
to Toss Up Trump
Oregon
from Strong Clinton
to Lean Clinton
Pennsylvania
from Lean Clinton
to Toss Up Clinton
Rhode Island
from Lean Clinton
to Toss Up Clinton
Utah
from Lean Trump
to Strong Trump
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.


Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (9/25/16)

The Electoral College Map (9/24/16)

The Electoral College Map (9/23/16)

Follow FHQ on TwitterGoogle+ and Facebook or subscribe by Email.

Sunday, September 25, 2016

The Electoral College Map (9/25/16)



New State Polls (9/25/16)
State
Poll
Date
Margin of Error
Sample
Clinton
Trump
Undecided
Poll Margin
FHQ Margin
Colorado
9/21-9/23
+/- 4.4%
991 likely voters
40
39
10
+1
+4.04
Maine
9/15-9/20
+/- 4.3%
513 likely voters
40
36
7
+4
+4.95
Missouri
9/21-9/23
+/- 3.9%
1087 likely voters
37
46
7
+9
+7.23
Utah
9/12-9/19
+/- 3.4%
820 likely voters
25
34
8
+9
+9.95
Virginia
9/21-9/23
+/- 3.3%
1237 likely voters
45
37
8
+8
+6.22


Polling Quick Hits:
If it is Sunday, it usually means some battleground polls from YouGov/CBS. Today was no exception as the internet-based polling firm served up new surveys from Colorado, Missouri and Virginia. Plus there was another poll added in from UNH in Maine. [...and a late add from Utah.]

Most significantly, Colorado and Maine jump the Lean/Toss Up line on the Clinton side of the Spectrum into the Toss Up Clinton area. Now, that line -- the 5 point mark -- is completely arbitrary, but the introduction of these new polls pushing the two states from Lean to Toss Up is not. To this point, Clinton had lost some of her cushion among the Toss Up states, but had maintained at least a five point lead in enough states to clear 270. That symbolic advantage is now gone, the product of a few weeks of tightening in the polls. That is good news for Trump in that a couple of states are perhaps within reach. However, it should be noted that heading into debate season Clinton still maintains at least a four point edge here at FHQ in states equalling 273 electoral votes.

Colorado:
Changes (September 25)
StateBeforeAfter
ColoradoLean ClintonToss Up Clinton
MaineLean ClintonToss Up Clinton
On the one hand, the new YouGov survey in Colorado is an exact replication of what the firm in the state back in its last poll there in June. However, on the other hand, this is yet more evidence of the narrowing of the polls -- if not volatility of them -- not only in the Centennial state but elsewhere as well.

There are two things worth noting about Colorado in general. First, polling in the state got off to a slow start this year, and has not really caught back up in the time since. For a battleground, it is underpolled. Second, any safety Clinton had in Colorado after the conventions has disappeared. To the extent that is about Clinton, it has to do with her campaign being unable to push significantly above 40 percent. She is still there. Meanwhile, Trump bottomed out following his post-convention comments and has subsequently rebounded, moving back into the upper 30s. Call it a regression to the equilibrium if one will.


Maine:
The Pine Tree state, too, has been underpolled, and the dynamic there is similar. Like Colorado, Clinton has been around but above 40 percent most of the year with Trump lagging behind in the mid- to upper 30s more often than not. In both cases, there is a segment of the respondents either lined up behind a third party option or undecided. That wiggle room creates quite a bit of uncertainty heading into the last six weeks of the campaign.

And that does not even factor in the fact that Maine splits the allocation of its electoral votes. FHQ will account for those congressional district electoral votes in not only Maine but Nebraska as well starting in October.


Missouri:
The first pair of states resemble each other, but so does the second pair. Only, instead of Missouri and Virginia shifting in concert, they are in some ways mirror images of each other on different sides of the partisan line. In both cases, one candidate has carved out a position in the mid- to upper 40s as the other has remained stuck in the upper 30s. That is a recipe for a Lean state no matter the side and that is exactly where Missouri and Virginia fall.

Trump has the advantage in the Show-Me state and that lead has only grow since narrowing in the lead up to the conventions. In the time since, Clinton support has ebbed a bit, taking her back into the 30s, while Trump has stabilized in the mid-40s. And that is just what YouGov found there in their latest poll of Missouri.


Virginia:
The firm's findings in Virginia are similar, but transposed. The Old Dominion was never really as close as Missouri was, but the post-convention period saw the Clinton-Kaine ticket's fortunes swell. Those double digit leads have since subsided and the polling in Virginia has settled down with Clinton occupying the mid-40s position and Trump fighting to get to and/or above 40 percent on a consistent basis.

UPDATE:
Utah:
Trump is still likely to win Utah and its six electoral votes because Clinton is mired in the mid-20s and the third party candidates are splitting the remainder. But it is still eye-opening to see the third party candidate collectively pulling in as much support (34 percent) as the overall leader in the poll.


--
Yes, Colorado and Maine shift categories on the map and Spectrum, but both remain on Watch List, now on the opposite side of the Lean/Toss Up line. Virginia and Missouri maintain the same shades on the map, but shift subtly on the Spectrum and off the Watch List below. Utah joins the Watch List as it has inched to within a very small fraction of a point of pushing into the Strong Trump category.




The Electoral College Spectrum1
HI-42
(7)
NJ-14
(175)
ME-4
(264)
MS-6
(126)
TN-11
(56)
MD-10
(17)
DE-3
(178)
CO-93
(273 | 274)
MO-10
(120)
AR-6
(45)
MA-11
(28)
NM-5
(183)
FL-29
(302 | 265)
SC-9
(110)
SD-3
(39)
VT-3
(31)
MN-10
(193)
NC-15
(317 | 236)
AK-3
(101)
ND-3
(36)
CA-55
(86)
WI-10
(203)
OH-18
(335 | 221)
KS-6
(98)
ID-4
(33)
NY-29
(115)
MI-16
(219)
NV-6
(203)
UT-6
(92)
NE-5
(29)
IL-20
(135)
VA-13
(232)
IA-6
(197)
IN-11
(86)
OK-7
(24)
WA-12
(147)
PA-20
(252)
AZ-11
(191)
MT-3
(75)
WV-5
(17)
CT-17
(154)
NH-4
(256)
GA-16
(180)
KY-8
(72)
AL-9
(12)
OR-7
(161)
RI-4
(260)
TX-38
(164)
LA-8
(64)
WY-3
(3)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.

2 
The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Colorado (all Clinton's toss up states plus Colorado), he would have 274 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Clinton's number is on the left and Trumps's is on the right in bold italics.

To keep the figure to 50 cells, Washington, DC and its three electoral votes are included in the beginning total on the Democratic side of the spectrum. The District has historically been the most Democratic state in the Electoral College.

3 Colorado
 is the state where Clinton crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. Currently, Colorado is in the Toss Up Clinton category.



NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Clinton and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.


The Watch List1
State
Switch
Colorado
from Toss Up Clinton
to Lean Clinton
Delaware
from Strong Clinton
to Lean Clinton
Indiana
from Strong Trump
to Lean Trump
Iowa
from Toss Up Trump
to Toss Up Clinton
Maine
from Toss Up Clinton
to Lean Clinton
Nevada
from Toss Up Trump
to Toss Up Clinton
New Hampshire
from Lean Clinton
to Toss Up Clinton
New Jersey
from Strong Clinton
to Lean Clinton
Ohio
from Toss Up Clinton
to Toss Up Trump
Oregon
from Strong Clinton
to Lean Clinton
Pennsylvania
from Lean Clinton
to Toss Up Clinton
Rhode Island
from Lean Clinton
to Toss Up Clinton
Utah
from Lean Trump
to Strong Trump
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.


Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (9/24/16)

The Electoral College Map (9/23/16)

The Electoral College Map (9/22/16)

Follow FHQ on TwitterGoogle+ and Facebook or subscribe by Email.

Saturday, September 24, 2016

The Electoral College Map (9/24/16)



New State Polls (9/24/16)
State
Poll
Date
Margin of Error
Sample
Clinton
Trump
Undecided
Poll Margin
FHQ Margin
Georgia
9/21-9/22
+/- 4.0%
600 likely voters
42.9
46.5
4.9
+3.6
+2.14
Pennsylvania
9/19-9/23
+/- 5.0%
486 likely voters
40
38
6
+2
+5.76


Polling Quick Hits:
The first Saturday of fall brought a couple of polls; repeats from Friday.

Georgia:
In the Peach state, a new poll from Landmark for WSBTV find yet another Trump lead. Although this one is on the low end in terms of the size of the margin, it shows growth since the last survey from Landmark at the end of July. Then, the race was basically tied. Now, the nearly four point Trump edge nudges his average in Georgia deeper into the Toss Up Trump category, moving toward a Lean. Georgia is a state where Trump is pretty firmly entrenched in the mid-40s while Clinton is hovering at or just above 40 percent. This poll is consistent with that pattern.


Pennsylvania:
This one is going to grab some attention simply because the margin is low and this is a state in the area (Lean Clinton) that Trump needs in order to get to 270. And while the margin dropped from eight points to two in a week in the Muhlenberg series, Clinton did not budge. All the movement was from Gary Johnson (-6) to Trump (+6). Trump was at 32 a week ago and that is the lowest point to which he has fallen since a June poll from GQR which just found him at 38 percent and trailing Clinton by 8. In other words, Trump's share in the poll a week ago was an outlier. This week's share of support is not. Trump's problem is still the same in Pennsylvania as it is in a number of other Lean Clinton states: He has to find a way to get to or above the 40 percent mark. This is a close poll because Clinton is at the low end of her range in the Keystone state. Rare are the times when Clinton is below about 44 percent. Muhlenberg now has two of those on a short list.


--
For the most part things held steady after adding in these two polls. Pennsylvania shuffled back to the low end of the order in quartet it is clustered with in the Electoral College Spectrum (with Colorado, Maine and Virginia). Every other figure holds steady.




The Electoral College Spectrum1
HI-42
(7)
NJ-14
(175)
NH-43
(269 | 273)
TX-38
(155)
TN-11
(56)
MD-10
(17)
DE-3
(178)
RI-43
(273 | 269)
MS-6
(116)
AR-6
(45)
MA-11
(28)
NM-5
(183)
FL-29
(302 | 265)
SC-9
(110)
SD-3
(39)
VT-3
(31)
MN-10
(193)
NC-15
(317 | 236)
AK-3
(101)
ND-3
(36)
CA-55
(86)
WI-10
(203)
OH-18
(335 | 221)
UT-6
(98)
ID-4
(33)
NY-29
(115)
MI-16
(219)
NV-6
(203)
KS-6
(92)
NE-5
(29)
IL-20
(135)
VA-13
(232)
IA-6
(197)
IN-11
(86)
OK-7
(24)
WA-12
(147)
ME-4
(236)
AZ-11
(191)
MT-3
(75)
WV-5
(17)
CT-17
(154)
CO-9
(245)
GA-16
(180)
KY-8
(72)
AL-9
(12)
OR-7
(161)
PA-20
(265)
MO-10
(164)
LA-8
(64)
WY-3
(3)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.

2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including New Hampshire (all Clinton's toss up states plus New Hampshire), he would have 273 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Clinton's number is on the left and Trumps's is on the right in bold italics.


To keep the figure to 50 cells, Washington, DC and its three electoral votes are included in the beginning total on the Democratic side of the spectrum. The District has historically been the most Democratic state in the Electoral College.

3 New Hampshire and Rhode Island are collectively the states where Clinton crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. If those two states are separated with Clinton winning New Hampshire and Trump, Rhode Island, then there would be a tie in the Electoral College.



NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Clinton and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.


The Watch List1
State
Switch
Colorado
from Lean Clinton
to Toss Up Clinton
Delaware
from Strong Clinton
to Lean Clinton
Indiana
from Strong Trump
to Lean Trump
Iowa
from Toss Up Trump
to Toss Up Clinton
Maine
from Lean Clinton
to Toss Up Clinton
Missouri
from Lean Trump
to Toss Up Trump
Nevada
from Toss Up Trump
to Toss Up Clinton
New Hampshire
from Lean Clinton
to Toss Up Clinton
New Jersey
from Strong Clinton
to Lean Clinton
Ohio
from Toss Up Clinton
to Toss Up Trump
Oregon
from Strong Clinton
to Lean Clinton
Pennsylvania
from Lean Clinton
to Toss Up Clinton
Rhode Island
from Lean Clinton
to Toss Up Clinton
Virginia
from Lean Clinton
to Toss Up Clinton
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.


Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (9/23/16)

The Electoral College Map (9/22/16)

The Electoral College Map (9/21/16)

Follow FHQ on TwitterGoogle+ and Facebook or subscribe by Email.