Thursday, December 6, 2012

The 2000 Electoral College Spectrum

From 1996 to 2000:

The 2000 Electoral College Spectrum1
RI-4
(7)2
VT-3
(171)
FL-253
(292/271)
VA-13
(167)
TX-32
(69)
MA-12
(19)
WA-11
(182)
NH-4
(246)
CO-8
(154)
OK-8
(37)
NY-33
(52)
MI-18
(200)
MO-11
(242)
GA-13
(146)
SD-3
(29)
HI-4
(56)
ME-4
(204)
OH-21
(231)
NC-14
(133)
MT-3
(26)
CT-8
(64)
PA-23
(227)
NV-4
(210)
AL-9
(119)
ND-3
(23)
MD-10
(74)
MN-10
(237)
TN-11
(206)
KY-8
(110)
NE-5
(20)
NJ-15
(89)
OR-7
(244)
AR-6
(195)
IN-12
(102)
AK-3
(15)
DE-3
(92)
IA-7
(251)
AZ-8
(189)
SC-8
(90)
ID-4
(12)
IL-22
(114)
WI-11
(262)
WV-5
(181)
MS-7
(82)
WY-3
(8)
CA-54
(168)
NM-5
(267)
LA-9
(176)
KS-6
(75)
UT-5
(5)
1Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. The darker the color of the cell, the higher the margin was for the winning candidate (Light: < 5%. Medium: 5-10%, Dark: > 10%).

2
The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked up to that state. If, for example, Gore had won all the states up to and including Florida, he would have gained 292 electoral votes. Gore's numbers are only totaled through the states he would have needed in order to get to 270. In those cases, Bush's number is on the right and Gore's is on the left in italics.


The electoral votes for Washington, DC are included in the first cell at the top left. Conveniently, the district is historically the most Democratic unit within the electoral college which allows FHQ to push it off the spectrum in the interest of keeping the figure to just 50 slots.

3
Florida is the state where Bush crossed the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line.




NOTES:
1) Again, the movement of the color lines from cycle to cycle is not as important as the changes in ordering of the states.

2) It is worth mentioning that the 2000 spectrum has the tipping point and partisan line overlapping at Florida. That is a noteworthy change in the dynamic between those two points on the figure. The average space between those two positions on the spectrum from 1984-1996 was 11.5 positions. Now, that is not telling us anything that we did not already know about the 2000 election. The visualization is a function of how close the election was in the electoral college.

3) Also worth noting is the visual change from 1996-2000. The pendulum swings back toward the Republicans, obviously, but everything from 1996 (lines between various categories of states) basically shifts over one column to the left. Both parties locked down (a margin over 10%) at least one column's worth of states.

4) As for the position in 2000 of the most competitive 2012 states, Pennsylvania and Iowa continued to be to the left of the tipping point and Colorado, North Carolina and Virginia to the right. Nevada, New Hampshire and Ohio (and Florida) were also to the right of the tipping point, but much more closely aligned in the middle and most competitive column. Overall, the full slate of 2012 swing states were much more tightly clustered around the tipping point. Again, the expectation is that over time this will occur as the elections get closer to 2012.

5) Looking at regions, those border/Appalachian states (Arkansas, Kentucky, Tennessee and West Virginia) pushed over to the right on the spectrum. All were Republican states in 2000. Unlike 1996, the Pacific states (California, Oregon and Washington) moved away from the Republicans in the ordering. The midwestern states (Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin) that had been such a big part of the Clinton coalition in 1996 stayed within the Gore coalition of states in 2000 and their positions on the spectrum were largely static over that time as well.

--
Electoral College Spectrum -- Estimated Weekly Averages

The 2000 Electoral College Spectrum1 -- 
Estimated (Election Day -- 11/7/00)
MA-12
(15)2
ME-4
(172)
NM-5
(251)
LA-9
(162)
MT-3
(73)
RI-4
(19)
WA-11
(183)
TN-11
(246)
CO-8
(153)
AL-9
(70)
NY-33
(52)
MN-10
(193)
MO-11
(235)
KY-8
(145)
SD-3
(61)
HI-4
(56)
IA-7
(200)
NH-4
(224)
VA-13
(137)
AK-3
(58)
VT-3
(59)
PA-23
(223)
AR-6
(220)
GA-13
(124)
NE-5
(55)
MD-10
(69)
DE-3
(226)
WV-5
(214)
MS-7
(111)
KS-6
(50)
CT-8
(77)
MI-18
(244)
NV-4
(209)
ND-3
(104)
ID-4
(44)
NJ-15
(92)
WI-11
(255)
AZ-8
(205)
IN-12
(101)
WY-3
(40)
CA-54
(146)
FL-253 4
(280/283)
OH-21
(197)
SC-8
(89)
UT-5
(37)
IL-22
(168)
OR-7
(258)
NC-14
(176)
OK-8
(81)
TX-32
(32)
1Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. The darker the color of the cell, the higher the margin was for the winning candidate (Light: < 5%. Medium: 5-10%, Dark: > 10%).

2
The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked up to that state. If, for example, Gore had won all the states up to and including Florida, he would have gained 280 electoral votes. Gore's numbers are only totaled through the states he would have needed in order to get to 270. In those cases, Bush's number is on the right and Gore's is on the left in italics.


The electoral votes for Washington, DC are included in the first cell at the top left. Conveniently, the district is historically the most Democratic unit within the electoral college which allows FHQ to push it off the spectrum in the interest of keeping the figure to just 50 slots.

3
Florida is the state where Bush crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election according to a weighted average of polls at the state level. That line is referred to as the victory line.

4 States in bold are states with polling margin averages less than one percentage point.


The 2000 Electoral College Spectrum1 -- 
Estimated (10/31/00)
MA-12
(15)2
ME-4
(172)
NH-4
(275/267)
LA-9
(162)
AL-9
(73)
RI-4
(19)
WA-11
(183)
OR-7
(263)
CO-8
(153)
MT-3
(64)
NY-33
(52)
TN-11
(194)
FL-25
(256)
KY-8
(145)
SD-3
(61)
HI-4
(56)
IA-7
(201)
MO-11
(231)
VA-13
(137)
AK-3
(58)
VT-3
(59)
MN-10
(211)
AR-6
(220)
GA-13
(124)
NE-5
(55)
MD-10
(69)
DE-3
(214)
WV-5
(214)
MS-7
(111)
KS-6
(50)
CT-8
(77)
PA-23
(237)
NV-4
(209)
IN-12
(104)
ID-4
(44)
NJ-15
(92)
WI-11
(248)
OH-21
(205)
ND-3
(92)
WY-3
(40)
CA-54
(146)
MI-18
(266)
AZ-8
(184)
SC-8
(89)
UT-5
(37)
IL-22
(168)
NM-53 4
(271/272)
NC-14
(176)
OK-8
(81)
TX-32
(32)
1Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. The darker the color of the cell, the higher the margin was for the winning candidate (Light: < 5%. Medium: 5-10%, Dark: > 10%).

2
The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked up to that state. If, for example, Bush had won all the states up to and including New Mexico, he would have gained 272 electoral votes. Bush's numbers are only totaled through the states he would have needed in order to get to 270. In those cases, Bush's number is on the right and Gore's is on the left in italics.


The electoral votes for Washington, DC are included in the first cell at the top left. Conveniently, the district is historically the most Democratic unit within the electoral college which allows FHQ to push it off the spectrum in the interest of keeping the figure to just 50 slots.

3
 New Mexico is the state where Gore crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election according to a weighted average of polls at the state level. That line is referred to as the victory line.

4 
States in bold are states with polling margin averages less than one percentage point. 


The 2000 Electoral College Spectrum1 -- 
Estimated (10/24/00)
MA-12
(15)2
IL-22
(172)
OR-7
(267)
NC-14
(168)
AL-9
(73)
RI-4
(19)
TN-11
(183)
NH-4
(260)
LA-9
(154)
MT-3
(64)
NY-33
(52)
IA-7
(190)
MO-11
(256)
CO-8
(145)
NE-5
(61)
HI-4
(56)
WA-11
(201)
FL-25
(245)
GA-13
(137)
SD-3
(56)
VT-3
(59)
DE-3
(204)
OH-21
(220)
VA-13
(124)
AK-3
(53)
MD-10
(69)
MN-10
(214)
AR-6
(199)
MS-7
(111)
ID-4
(50)
CT-8
(77)
WI-11
(225)
NV-4
(193)
IN-12
(104)
KS-6
(46)
NJ-15
(92)
PA-23
(248)
WV-5
(189)
ND-3
(92)
WY-3
(40)
ME-4
(96)
MI-183
(266)
AZ-8
(184)
SC-8
(89)
UT-5
(37)
CA-54
(150)
NM-54
(271/272)
KY-8
(176)
OK-8
(81)
TX-32
(32)
1Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. The darker the color of the cell, the higher the margin was for the winning candidate (Light: < 5%. Medium: 5-10%, Dark: > 10%).

2
The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked up to that state. If, for example, Bush had won all the states up to and including New Mexico, he would have gained 272 electoral votes. Bush's numbers are only totaled through the states he would have needed in order to get to 270. In those cases, Bush's number is on the right and Gore's is on the left in italics.


The electoral votes for Washington, DC are included in the first cell at the top left. Conveniently, the district is historically the most Democratic unit within the electoral college which allows FHQ to push it off the spectrum in the interest of keeping the figure to just 50 slots.

3
 States in bold are states with polling margin averages less than one percentage point.

4 
New Mexico is the state where Gore crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election according to a weighted average of polls at the state level. That line is referred to as the victory line.


The 2000 Electoral College Spectrum1 -- 
Estimated (10/17/00)
MA-12
(15)2
TN-11
(161)
NM-5
(278/265)
KY-8
(167)
OK-8
(72)
RI-4
(19)
IL-22
(183)
NH-4
(260)
NC-14
(159)
MT-3
(64)
NY-33
(52)
IA-7
(190)
WV-5
(256)
CO-8
(145)
NE-5
(61)
VT-3
(55)
MN-10
(200)
MO-11
(251)
GA-13
(137)
SD-3
(56)
HI-4
(59)
WA-11
(211)
LA-9
(240)
VA-13
(124)
AK-3
(53)
MD-10
(69)
DE-3
(214)
FL-25
(231)
MS-7
(111)
ID-4
(50)
CT-8
(77)
PA-23
(237)
AZ-8
(206)
IN-12
(104)
KS-6
(46)
NJ-15
(92)
WI-113
(248)
AR-6
(198)
ND-3
(92)
WY-3
(40)
ME-4
(96)
MI-18
(266)
NV-4
(192)
SC-8
(89)
UT-5
(37)
CA-54
(150)
OR-74
(273/272)
OH-21
(188)
AL-9
(81)
TX-32
(32)
1Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. The darker the color of the cell, the higher the margin was for the winning candidate (Light: < 5%. Medium: 5-10%, Dark: > 10%).

2
The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked up to that state. If, for example, Bush had won all the states up to and including Oregon, he would have gained 272 electoral votes. Bush's numbers are only totaled through the states he would have needed in order to get to 270. In those cases, Bush's number is on the right and Gore's is on the left in italics.


The electoral votes for Washington, DC are included in the first cell at the top left. Conveniently, the district is historically the most Democratic unit within the electoral college which allows FHQ to push it off the spectrum in the interest of keeping the figure to just 50 slots.

3
 States in bold are states with polling margin averages less than one percentage point.

4 
Oregon is the state where Gore crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election according to a weighted average of polls at the state level. That line is referred to as the victory line.


The 2000 Electoral College Spectrum1 -- 
Estimated (10/10/00)
MA-12
(15)2
CA-54
(172)
NM-5
(278/265)
NC-14
(167)
OK-8
(72)
RI-4
(19)
TN-11
(183)
NH-4
(260)
KY-8
(153)
MT-3
(64)
NY-33
(52)
IA-7
(190)
WV-5
(256)
CO-8
(145)
NE-5
(61)
VT-3
(55)
MN-10
(200)
MO-11
(251)
GA-13
(137)
SD-3
(56)
HI-4
(59)
WA-11
(211)
LA-9
(240)
VA-13
(124)
AK-3
(53)
MD-10
(69)
DE-3
(214)
FL-25
(231)
MS-7
(111)
ID-4
(50)
ME-4
(73)
OR-7
(221)
AZ-8
(206)
IN-12
(104)
KS-6
(46)
CT-8
(81)
PA-23
(244)
AR-6
(198)
ND-3
(92)
WY-3
(40)
NJ-15
(96)
MI-183
(262)
NV-4
(192)
SC-8
(89)
UT-5
(37)
IL-22
(118)
WI-114
(273/276)
OH-21
(188)
AL-9
(81)
TX-32
(32)
1Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. The darker the color of the cell, the higher the margin was for the winning candidate (Light: < 5%. Medium: 5-10%, Dark: > 10%).

2
The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked up to that state. If, for example, Bush had won all the states up to and including Wisconsin, he would have gained 276 electoral votes. Bush's numbers are only totaled through the states he would have needed in order to get to 270. In those cases, Bush's number is on the right and Gore's is on the left in italics.


The electoral votes for Washington, DC are included in the first cell at the top left. Conveniently, the district is historically the most Democratic unit within the electoral college which allows FHQ to push it off the spectrum in the interest of keeping the figure to just 50 slots.

3
 States in bold are states with polling margin averages less than one percentage point.

4 
Wisconsin is the state where Gore crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election according to a weighted average of polls at the state level. That line is referred to as the victory line.


The 2000 Electoral College Spectrum1 -- 
Estimated (10/3/00)
MA-12
(15)2
TN-11
(129)
NM-5
(278/265)
NC-14
(167)
MT-3
(67)
RI-4
(19)
CA-54
(183)
WV-5
(260)
KY-8
(153)
ND-3
(64)
NY-33
(52)
IA-7
(190)
MO-11
(255)
CO-8
(145)
NE-5
(61)
VT-3
(55)
MN-10
(200)
LA-9
(244)
GA-13
(137)
SD-3
(56)
HI-4
(59)
WA-11
(211)
AZ-8
(235)
VA-13
(124)
AK-3
(53)
MD-10
(69)
DE-3
(214)
NH-4
(227)
MS-7
(111)
ID-4
(50)
ME-4
(73)
OR-7
(221)
FL-25
(223)
IN-12
(104)
KS-6
(46)
CT-8
(81)
PA-23
(244)
AR-6
(198)
SC-8
(92)
WY-3
(40)
NJ-15
(96)
MI-183
(262)
OH-21
(192)
OK-8
(84)
UT-5
(37)
IL-22
(118)
WI-114
(273/276)
NV-4
(171)
AL-9
(76)
TX-32
(32)
1Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. The darker the color of the cell, the higher the margin was for the winning candidate (Light: < 5%. Medium: 5-10%, Dark: > 10%).

2
The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked up to that state. If, for example, Bush had won all the states up to and including Wisconsin, he would have gained 276 electoral votes. Bush's numbers are only totaled through the states he would have needed in order to get to 270. In those cases, Bush's number is on the right and Gore's is on the left in italics.


The electoral votes for Washington, DC are included in the first cell at the top left. Conveniently, the district is historically the most Democratic unit within the electoral college which allows FHQ to push it off the spectrum in the interest of keeping the figure to just 50 slots.

3
 States in bold are states with polling margin averages less than one percentage point.

4 
Wisconsin is the state where Gore crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election according to a weighted average of polls at the state level. That line is referred to as the victory line.


The 2000 Electoral College Spectrum1 -- 
Estimated (9/26/00)
MA-12
(15)2
IL-22
(129)
PA-234
(278/283)
NC-14
(167)
OK-8
(72)
RI-4
(19)
CA-54
(183)
WV-5
(260)
GA-13
(153)
ND-3
(64)
NY-33
(52)
IA-7
(190)
MO-11
(255)
KY-8
(140)
NE-5
(61)
VT-3
(55)
MN-10
(200)
LA-9
(244)
CO-8
(132)
SD-3
(56)
HI-4
(59)
WA-11
(211)
AZ-8
(235)
VA-13
(124)
AK-3
(53)
MD-10
(69)
OR-7
(218)
NH-4
(227)
MS-7
(111)
ID-4
(50)
ME-4
(73)
NM-5
(223)
FL-25
(223)
IN-12
(104)
KS-6
(46)
TN-11
(84)
DE-3
(226)
OH-21
(198)
SC-8
(92)
WY-3
(40)
CT-8
(92)
WI-113
(237)
NV-4
(177)
AL-9
(84)
UT-5
(37)
NJ-15
(107)
MI-18
(255)
AR-6
(173)
MT-3
(75)
TX-32
(32)
1Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. The darker the color of the cell, the higher the margin was for the winning candidate (Light: < 5%. Medium: 5-10%, Dark: > 10%).

2
The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked up to that state. If, for example, Gore had won all the states up to and including Pennsylvania, he would have gained 278 electoral votes. Gore's numbers are only totaled through the states he would have needed in order to get to 270. In those cases, Bush's number is on the right and Gore's is on the left in italics.


The electoral votes for Washington, DC are included in the first cell at the top left. Conveniently, the district is historically the most Democratic unit within the electoral college which allows FHQ to push it off the spectrum in the interest of keeping the figure to just 50 slots.

3
 States in bold are states with polling margin averages less than one percentage point.

4 
Pennsylvania is the state where Bush crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election according to a weighted average of polls at the state level. That line is referred to as the victory line.




The 2000 Electoral College Spectrum1 -- 
Estimated (9/19/00)
MA-12
(15)2
NJ-15
(114)
WI-11
(265/284)
NV-4
(149)
ND-3
(67)
RI-4
(19)
IL-22
(136)
MI-184
(283/273)
NH-4
(145)
MT-3
(64)
NY-33
(52)
CA-54
(190)
MO-11
(255)
CO-8
(141)
NE-5
(61)
VT-3
(55)
MN-10
(200)
AZ-8
(244)
VA-13
(133)
SD-3
(56)
HI-4
(59)
WA-11
(211)
FL-25
(236)
LA-9
(120)
AK-3
(53)
MD-10
(69)
OR-7
(218)
KY-8
(211)
IN-12
(111)
ID-4
(50)
ME-4
(73)
NM-5
(223)
OH-21
(203)
MS-7
(99)
KS-6
(46)
TN-11
(84)
DE-3
(226)
AR-6
(182)
AL-9
(92)
WY-3
(40)
CT-8
(92)
PA-233
(249/312)
NC-14
(176)
SC-8
(83)
UT-5
(37)
IA-7
(99)
WV-5
(254/289)
GA-13
(162)
OK-8
(75)
TX-32
(32)
1Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. The darker the color of the cell, the higher the margin was for the winning candidate (Light: < 5%. Medium: 5-10%, Dark: > 10%).

2
The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked up to that state. If, for example, Gore had won all the states up to and including Michigan, he would have gained 283 electoral votes. Gore's numbers are only totaled through the states he would have needed in order to get to 270. In those cases, Bush's number is on the right and Gore's is on the left in italics.


The electoral votes for Washington, DC are included in the first cell at the top left. Conveniently, the district is historically the most Democratic unit within the electoral college which allows FHQ to push it off the spectrum in the interest of keeping the figure to just 50 slots.

3
 States in bold are states with polling margin averages less than one percentage point.

4 Michigan
 is the state where Bush crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election according to a weighted average of polls at the state level. That line is referred to as the victory line.


The 2000 Electoral College Spectrum1 -- 
Estimated (9/12/00)
MA-12
(15)2
NJ-15
(160)
FL-254
(270/293)
OH-21
(170)
ND-3
(74)
RI-4
(19)
WA-11
(171)
MI-18
(268)
CO-8
(149)
MT-3
(71)
NY-33
(52)
IL-22
(193)
WV-5
(250)
VA-13
(141)
NE-5
(68)
VT-3
(55)
MN-10
(203)
PA-23
(245)
LA-9
(128)
SD-3
(63)
HI-4
(59)
OR-7
(210)
WI-11
(222)
KS-65
(119)
SC-8
(60)
ME-4
(63)
CT-8
(218)
AR-6
(211)
IN-12
(113)
OK-8
(52)
MD-10
(73)
NM-53
(223)
NH-4
(205)
AZ-8
(101)
ID-4
(44)
TN-11
(84)
MO-11
(234/315)
GA-13
(201)
MS-7
(93)
UT-5
(40)
IA-7
(91)
DE-3
(237/304)
NC-14
(188)
AL-9
(86)
WY-3
(35)
CA-54
(145)
KY-8
(245/301)
NV-4
(174)
AK-3
(77)
TX-32
(32)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. The darker the color of the cell, the higher the margin was for the winning candidate (Light: < 5%. Medium: 5-10%, Dark: > 10%).

2
 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked up to that state. If, for example, Gore had won all the states up to and including Florida, he would have gained 270 electoral votes. Gore's numbers are only totaled through the states he would have needed in order to get to 270. In those cases, Bush's number is on the right and Gore's is on the left in italics.

The electoral votes for Washington, DC are included in the first cell at the top left. Conveniently, the district is historically the most Democratic unit within the electoral college which allows FHQ to push it off the spectrum in the interest of keeping the figure to just 50 slots.

3
 States in bold are states with polling margin averages less than one percentage point.

4 
Florida is the state where Bush crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election according to a weighted average of polls at the state level. That line is referred to as the victory line.

5 States highlighted in orange lettering are states where no polling data is available. In those cases the average of the previous three elections is used to determine the state's position in the rank ordering.


The 2000 Electoral College Spectrum1 -- 
Estimated (9/5/00)
MA-12
(15)2
MN-10
(166)
PA-235
(280/281)
ND-3
(158)
KY-8
(85)
RI-4
(19)
CT-8
(174)
SD-3
(258)
LA-9
(155)
AL-9
(77)
VT-3
(22)
WA-11
(185)
MO-11
(255)
NV-4
(146)
AK-3
(68)
NY-33
(55)
IL-224
(207)
GA-13
(244)
VA-13
(142)
NE-5
(65)
MD-10
(65)
NM-5
(212)
FL-25
(231)
MS-7
(129)
MT-3
(60)
IA-7
(72)
HI-4
(216/326)
NC-14
(206)
CO-8
(122)
SC-8
(57)
TN-11
(83)
OR-7
(223/322)
OH-21
(192)
KS-6
(114)
OK-8
(49)
ME-43
(87)
MI-18
(241/315)
AR-6
(171)
WY-3
(108)
UT-5
(41)
CA-54
(141)
WV-5
(246/297)
DE-3
(165)
AZ-8
(105)
ID-4
(36)
NJ-15
(156)
WI-11
(257/292)
NH-4
(162)
IN-12
(97)
TX-32
(32)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. The darker the color of the cell, the higher the margin was for the winning candidate (Light: < 5%. Medium: 5-10%, Dark: > 10%).

2
 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked up to that state. If, for example, Gore had won all the states up to and including Pennsylvania, he would have gained 280 electoral votes. Gore's numbers are only totaled through the states he would have needed in order to get to 270. In those cases, Bush's number is on the right and Gore's is on the left in italics.

The electoral votes for Washington, DC are included in the first cell at the top left. Conveniently, the district is historically the most Democratic unit within the electoral college which allows FHQ to push it off the spectrum in the interest of keeping the figure to just 50 slots.

3
 States highlighted in orange lettering are states where no polling data is available. In those cases the average of the previous three elections is used to determine the state's position in the rank ordering.

4 
States in bold are states with polling margin averages less than one percentage point.

5 Pennsylvania is the state where Bush crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election according to a weighted average of polls at the state level. That line is referred to as the victory line.


The 2000 Electoral College Spectrum1 -- 
Estimated (8/29/00)
MA-12
(15)2 3
MN-10
(166)
SD-3
(260/281)
ND-3
(158)
KY-8
(85)
RI-4
(19)
CT-8
(174)
PA-235
(283/278)
LA-9
(155)
AK-3
(77)
NY-33
(52)
WA-11
(185)
GA-13
(255)
NV-4
(146)
NE-5
(74)
VT-3
(55)
IL-224
(207)
FL-25
(242)
VA-13
(142)
AL-9
(69)
MD-10
(65)
NM-5
(212)
NC-14
(217)
MS-7
(129)
MT-3
(60)
IA-7
(72)
HI-4
(216/326)
OH-21
(203)
CO-8
(122)
SC-8
(57)
TN-11
(83)
OR-7
(223/322)
DE-3
(182)
KS-6
(114)
OK-8
(49)
ME-4
(87)
MI-18
(241/315)
AR-6
(179)
WY-3
(108)
UT-5
(41)
CA-54
(141)
WI-11
(252/297)
NH-4
(173)
AZ-8
(105)
ID-4
(36)
NJ-15
(156)
WV-5
(257/286)
MO-11
(169)
IN-12
(97)
TX-32
(32)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. The darker the color of the cell, the higher the margin was for the winning candidate (Light: < 5%. Medium: 5-10%, Dark: > 10%).

2
 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked up to that state. If, for example, Gore had won all the states up to and including Pennsylvania, he would have gained 283 electoral votes. Gore's numbers are only totaled through the states he would have needed in order to get to 270. In those cases, Bush's number is on the right and Gore's is on the left in italics.

The electoral votes for Washington, DC are included in the first cell at the top left. Conveniently, the district is historically the most Democratic unit within the electoral college which allows FHQ to push it off the spectrum in the interest of keeping the figure to just 50 slots.

3
 States highlighted in orange lettering are states where no polling data is available. In those cases the average of the previous three elections is used to determine the state's position in the rank ordering.

4 
States in bold are states with polling margin averages less than one percentage point.

5 Pennsylvania is the state where Bush crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election according to a weighted average of polls at the state level. That line is referred to as the victory line.


The 2000 Electoral College Spectrum1 -- 
Estimated (8/22/00)
MA-12
(15)2 3
MN-10
(166)
NH-4
(259/283)
ND-3
(158)
AK-3
(89)
RI-4
(19)
CT-8
(174)
GA-135
(272/279)
LA-9
(155)
NE-5
(86)
NY-33
(52)
NM-54
(179)
FL-25
(266)
NV-4
(146)
IN-12
(81)
VT-3
(55)
HI-4
(183/359)
NC-14
(241)
VA-13
(142)
AL-9
(69)
IA-7
(62)
IL-22
(205/355)
OH-21
(227)
MS-7
(129)
MT-3
(60)
TN-11
(73)
OR-7
(212/333)
DE-3
(206)
CO-8
(122)
SC-8
(57)
ME-4
(77)
WA-11
(223/326)
PA-23
(203)
KS-6
(114)
OK-8
(49)
CA-54
(131)
WI-11
(234/315)
AR-6
(180)
WY-3
(108)
UT-5
(41)
NJ-15
(146)
MI-18
(252/304)
WV-5
(174)
AZ-8
(105)
ID-4
(36)
MD-10
(156)
SD-3
(255/286)
MO-11
(169)
KY-8
(97)
TX-32
(32)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. The darker the color of the cell, the higher the margin was for the winning candidate (Light: < 5%. Medium: 5-10%, Dark: > 10%).

2
 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked up to that state. If, for example, Gore had won all the states up to and including Georgia, he would have gained 272 electoral votes. Gore's numbers are only totaled through the states he would have needed in order to get to 270. In those cases, Bush's number is on the right and Gore's is on the left in italics.

The electoral votes for Washington, DC are included in the first cell at the top left. Conveniently, the district is historically the most Democratic unit within the electoral college which allows FHQ to push it off the spectrum in the interest of keeping the figure to just 50 slots.

3
 States highlighted in orange lettering are states where no polling data is available. In those cases the average of the previous three elections is used to determine the state's position in the rank ordering.

4 
States in bold are states with polling margin averages less than one percentage point.

5 Georgia is the state where Bush crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election according to a weighted average of polls at the state level. That line is referred to as the victory line.


The 2000 Electoral College Spectrum1 -- 
Estimated (8/15/00)
MA-12
(15)2 3
CT-8
(153)
MI-18
(259/297)
ND-3
(158)
AK-3
(89)
RI-4
(19)
NJ-15
(168)
GA-135
(272/279)
LA-9
(155)
NE-5
(86)
NY-33
(52)
NM-54
(173)
FL-25
(266)
NV-4
(146)
IN-12
(81)
VT-3
(55)
MN-10
(183/365)
NC-14
(241)
VA-13
(142)
AL-9
(69)
IA-7
(62)
IL-22
(205/355)
OH-21
(227)
MS-7
(129)
MT-3
(60)
HI-4
(66)
OR-7
(212/333)
DE-3
(206)
CO-8
(122)
SC-8
(57)
TN-11
(77)
WA-11
(223/326)
PA-23
(203)
KS-6
(114)
OK-8
(49)
ME-4
(81)
WI-11
(234/315)
AR-6
(180)
WY-3
(108)
UT-5
(41)
CA-54
(135)
NH-4
(238/304)
WV-5
(174)
AZ-8
(105)
ID-4
(36)
MD-10
(145)
SD-3
(241/300)
MO-11
(169)
KY-8
(97)
TX-32
(32)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. The darker the color of the cell, the higher the margin was for the winning candidate (Light: < 5%. Medium: 5-10%, Dark: > 10%).

2
 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked up to that state. If, for example, Gore had won all the states up to and including Georgia, he would have gained 272 electoral votes. Gore's numbers are only totaled through the states he would have needed in order to get to 270. In those cases, Bush's number is on the right and Gore's is on the left in italics.

The electoral votes for Washington, DC are included in the first cell at the top left. Conveniently, the district is historically the most Democratic unit within the electoral college which allows FHQ to push it off the spectrum in the interest of keeping the figure to just 50 slots.

3
 States highlighted in orange lettering are states where no polling data is available. In those cases the average of the previous three elections is used to determine the state's position in the rank ordering.

4 
States in bold are states with polling margin averages less than one percentage point.

5 Georgia is the state where Bush crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election according to a weighted average of polls at the state level. That line is referred to as the victory line.


The 2000 Electoral College Spectrum1 -- 
Estimated (8/8/00)
MA-12
(15)2 3
CT-8
(153)
FL-25
(266/297)
ND-3
(158)
KY-8
(89)
RI-4
(19)
NJ-15
(168)
MI-185
(284/272)
LA-9
(155)
AK-3
(81)
NY-33
(52)
NM-54
(173)
PA-23
(254)
NV-4
(146)
NE-5
(78)
VT-3
(55)
MN-10
(183/365)
GA-13
(231)
VA-13
(142)
IN-12
(73)
IA-7
(62)
IL-22
(205/355)
NC-14
(218)
CO-8
(129)
AL-9
(61)
HI-4
(66)
OR-7
(212/333)
OH-21
(204)
MS-7
(121)
MT-3
(52)
CA-54
(120)
WA-11
(223/326)
DE-3
(183)
KS-6
(114)
OK-8
(49)
TN-11
(131)
WI-11
(234/315)
AR-6
(180)
SC-8
(108)
UT-5
(41)
ME-4
(135)
NH-4
(238/304)
WV-5
(174)
WY-3
(100)
ID-4
(36)
MD-10
(145)
SD-3
(241/300)
MO-11
(169)
AZ-8
(97)
TX-32
(32)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. The darker the color of the cell, the higher the margin was for the winning candidate (Light: < 5%. Medium: 5-10%, Dark: > 10%).

2
 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked up to that state. If, for example, Gore had won all the states up to and including Michigan, he would have gained 284 electoral votes. Gore's numbers are only totaled through the states he would have needed in order to get to 270. In those cases, Bush's number is on the right and Gore's is on the left in italics.

The electoral votes for Washington, DC are included in the first cell at the top left. Conveniently, the district is historically the most Democratic unit within the electoral college which allows FHQ to push it off the spectrum in the interest of keeping the figure to just 50 slots.

3
 States highlighted in orange lettering are states where no polling data is available. In those cases the average of the previous three elections is used to determine the state's position in the rank ordering.

4 
States in bold are states with polling margin averages less than one percentage point.

5 Michigan is the state where Bush crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election according to a weighted average of polls at the state level. That line is referred to as the victory line.


The 2000 Electoral College Spectrum1 -- 
Estimated (8/1/00)
MA-12
(15)2 3
NJ-15
(160)
FL-25
(266/297)
ND-3
(158)
KY-8
(89)
RI-4
(19)
CT-8
(168)
MI-185
(284/272)
LA-9
(155)
AK-3
(81)
NY-33
(52)
NM-54
(173)
PA-23
(254)
NV-4
(146)
MT-3
(78)
VT-3
(55)
MN-10
(183/365)
GA-13
(231)
VA-13
(142)
NE-5
(75)
IA-7
(62)
IL-22
(205/355)
NC-14
(218)
CO-8
(129)
AL-9
(70)
HI-4
(66)
OR-7
(212/333)
OH-21
(204)
MS-7
(121)
IN-12
(61)
CA-54
(120)
WA-11
(223/326)
DE-3
(183)
KS-6
(114)
OK-8
(49)
TN-11
(131)
WI-11
(234/315)
AR-6
(180)
SC-8
(108)
UT-5
(41)
ME-4
(135)
NH-4
(238/304)
WV-5
(174)
WY-3
(100)
ID-4
(36)
MD-10
(145)
SD-3
(241/300)
MO-11
(169)
AZ-8
(97)
TX-32
(32)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. The darker the color of the cell, the higher the margin was for the winning candidate (Light: < 5%. Medium: 5-10%, Dark: > 10%).

2
 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked up to that state. If, for example, Gore had won all the states up to and including Michigan, he would have gained 284 electoral votes. Gore's numbers are only totaled through the states he would have needed in order to get to 270. In those cases, Bush's number is on the right and Gore's is on the left in italics.

The electoral votes for Washington, DC are included in the first cell at the top left. Conveniently, the district is historically the most Democratic unit within the electoral college which allows FHQ to push it off the spectrum in the interest of keeping the figure to just 50 slots.

3
 States highlighted in orange lettering are states where no polling data is available. In those cases the average of the previous three elections is used to determine the state's position in the rank ordering.

4 
States in bold are states with polling margin averages less than one percentage point.

5 Michigan is the state where Bush crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election according to a weighted average of polls at the state level. That line is referred to as the victory line.


The 2000 Electoral College Spectrum1 -- 
Estimated (7/25/00)
MA-12
(15)2 3
NJ-15
(160)
FL-25
(266/297)
ND-3
(158)
KY-8
(89)
RI-4
(19)
CT-8
(168)
MI-185
(284/272)
LA-9
(155)
AK-3
(81)
NY-33
(52)
NM-54
(173)
DE-3
(254)
NV-4
(146)
MT-3
(78)
VT-3
(55)
MN-10
(183/365)
PA-23
(251)
VA-13
(142)
NE-5
(75)
IA-7
(62)
IL-22
(205/355)
GA-13
(228)
CO-8
(129)
AL-9
(70)
HI-4
(66)
WA-11
(216/333)
NC-14
(215)
MS-7
(121)
IN-12
(61)
CA-54
(120)
OR-7
(223/322)
OH-21
(201)
KS-6
(114)
OK-8
(49)
TN-11
(131)
NH-4
(227/315)
AR-6
(180)
SC-8
(108)
UT-5
(41)
ME-4
(135)
WI-11
(238/311)
WV-5
(174)
WY-3
(100)
ID-4
(36)
MD-10
(145)
SD-3
(241/300)
MO-11
(169)
AZ-8
(97)
TX-32
(32)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. The darker the color of the cell, the higher the margin was for the winning candidate (Light: < 5%. Medium: 5-10%, Dark: > 10%).

2
 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked up to that state. If, for example, Gore had won all the states up to and including Michigan, he would have gained 284 electoral votes. Gore's numbers are only totaled through the states he would have needed in order to get to 270. In those cases, Bush's number is on the right and Gore's is on the left in italics.

The electoral votes for Washington, DC are included in the first cell at the top left. Conveniently, the district is historically the most Democratic unit within the electoral college which allows FHQ to push it off the spectrum in the interest of keeping the figure to just 50 slots.

3
 States highlighted in orange lettering are states where no polling data is available. In those cases the average of the previous three elections is used to determine the state's position in the rank ordering.

4 
States in bold are states with polling margin averages less than one percentage point.

5 Michigan is the state where Bush crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election according to a weighted average of polls at the state level. That line is referred to as the victory line.


The 2000 Electoral College Spectrum1 -- 
Estimated (7/18/00)
MA-12
(15)2 3
NJ-15
(160)
MI-18
(259/297)
ND-3
(158)
KY-8
(89)
RI-4
(19)
CT-8
(168)
FL-255
(284/279)
LA-9
(155)
AK-3
(81)
NY-33
(52)
NM-54
(173)
DE-3
(254)
NV-4
(146)
MT-3
(78)
VT-3
(55)
MN-10
(183/365)
PA-23
(251)
VA-13
(142)
AL-9
(75)
IA-7
(62)
IL-22
(205/355)
GA-13
(228)
CO-8
(129)
NE-5
(66)
HI-4
(66)
WA-11
(216/333)
OH-21
(215)
MS-7
(121)
IN-12
(61)
MD-10
(76)
OR-7
(223/322)
NC-14
(194)
KS-6
(114)
OK-8
(49)
CA-54
(130)
NH-4
(227/315)
AR-6
(180)
SC-8
(108)
UT-5
(41)
TN-11
(141)
WI-11
(238/311)
WV-5
(174)
WY-3
(100)
ID-4
(36)
ME-4
(145)
SD-3
(241/300)
MO-11
(169)
AZ-8
(97)
TX-32
(32)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. The darker the color of the cell, the higher the margin was for the winning candidate (Light: < 5%. Medium: 5-10%, Dark: > 10%).

2
 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked up to that state. If, for example, Gore had won all the states up to and including Florida, he would have gained 284 electoral votes. Gore's numbers are only totaled through the states he would have needed in order to get to 270. In those cases, Bush's number is on the right and Gore's is on the left in italics.

The electoral votes for Washington, DC are included in the first cell at the top left. Conveniently, the district is historically the most Democratic unit within the electoral college which allows FHQ to push it off the spectrum in the interest of keeping the figure to just 50 slots.

3
 States highlighted in orange lettering are states where no polling data is available. In those cases the average of the previous three elections is used to determine the state's position in the rank ordering.

4 
States in bold are states with polling averages less than one percentage point.

5 Florida is the state where Bush crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election according to a weighted average of polls at the state level. That line is referred to as the victory line.


The 2000 Electoral College Spectrum1 -- 
Estimated (7/11/00)
MA-12
(15)2 3
NJ-15
(160)
SD-3
(264/277)
ND-3
(158)
KY-8
(89)
RI-4
(19)
CT-8
(168)
MI-185
(282/274)
NV-4
(155)
AK-3
(81)
NY-33
(52)
NM-54
(173)
DE-3
(256)
LA-9
(151)
MT-3
(78)
VT-3
(55)
MN-10
(183/365)
FL-25
(253)
CO-8
(142)
AL-9
(75)
IA-7
(62)
IL-22
(205/355)
GA-13
(228)
VA-13
(134)
NE-5
(66)
HI-4
(66)
WA-11
(216/333)
OH-21
(215)
MS-7
(121)
IN-12
(61)
MD-10
(76)
OR-7
(223/322)
NC-14
(194)
KS-6
(114)
OK-8
(49)
CA-54
(130)
NH-4
(227/315)
WV-5
(180)
SC-8
(108)
UT-5
(41)
TN-11
(141)
PA-23
(250/311)
MO-11
(175)
WY-3
(100)
ID-4
(36)
ME-4
(145)
WI-11
(261/288)
AR-6
(164)
AZ-8
(97)
TX-32
(32)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. The darker the color of the cell, the higher the margin was for the winning candidate (Light: < 5%. Medium: 5-10%, Dark: > 10%).

2
 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked up to that state. If, for example, Gore had won all the states up to and including Michigan, he would have gained 282 electoral votes. Gore's numbers are only totaled through the states he would have needed in order to get to 270. In those cases, Bush's number is on the right and Gore's is on the left in italics.

The electoral votes for Washington, DC are included in the first cell at the top left. Conveniently, the district is historically the most Democratic unit within the electoral college which allows FHQ to push it off the spectrum in the interest of keeping the figure to just 50 slots.

3
 States highlighted in orange lettering are states where no polling data is available. In those cases the average of the previous three elections is used to determine the state's position in the rank ordering.

4 
States in bold are states with polling averages less than one percentage point.

5 Michigan is the state where Bush crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election according to a weighted average of polls at the state level. That line is referred to as the victory line.


The 2000 Electoral College Spectrum1 -- 
Estimated (7/4/00)
MA-12
(15)2 3
NJ-15
(160)
PA-235
(279/282)
ND-3
(158)
KY-8
(89)
NY-33
(48)
CT-8
(168)
WI-11
(259)
NV-4
(155)
AK-3
(81)
RI-4
(52)
MN-10
(178)
SD-3
(248)
LA-9
(151)
MT-3
(78)
VT-3
(55)
NM-54
(183)
DE-3
(245)
CO-8
(142)
AL-9
(75)
IA-7
(62)
IL-22
(205/355)
FL-25
(242)
VA-13
(134)
IN-12
(66)
HI-4
(66)
MI-18
(223/333)
GA-13
(217)
MS-7
(121)
NE-5
(54)
MD-10
(76)
WA-11
(234/315)
OH-21
(204)
KS-6
(114)
OK-8
(49)
CA-54
(130)
MO-11
(245/304)
NC-14
(183)
SC-8
(108)
UT-5
(41)
TN-11
(141)
OR-7
(252/293)
WV-5
(169)
WY-3
(100)
ID-4
(36)
ME-4
(145)
NH-4
(256/286)
AR-6
(164)
AZ-8
(97)
TX-32
(32)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. The darker the color of the cell, the higher the margin was for the winning candidate (Light: < 5%. Medium: 5-10%, Dark: > 10%).

2
 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked up to that state. If, for example, Gore had won all the states up to and including Pennsylvania, he would have gained 279 electoral votes. Gore's numbers are only totaled through the states he would have needed in order to get to 270. In those cases, Bush's number is on the right and Gore's is on the left in italics.

The electoral votes for Washington, DC are included in the first cell at the top left. Conveniently, the district is historically the most Democratic unit within the electoral college which allows FHQ to push it off the spectrum in the interest of keeping the figure to just 50 slots.

3
 States highlighted in orange lettering are states where no polling data is available. In those cases the average of the previous three elections is used to determine the state's position in the rank ordering.

4 
States in bold are states with polling margin averages less than one percentage point.

5 Pennsylvania is the state where Bush crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election according to a weighted average of polls at the state level. That line is referred to as the victory line.


The 2000 Electoral College Spectrum1 -- 
Estimated (6/27/00)
MA-12
(15)2 3
NJ-15
(160)
NH-4
(267/259)
ND-3
(158)
KY-8
(89)
NY-33
(48)
CT-8
(168)
PA-235
(290/271)
NV-4
(155)
AK-3
(81)
RI-4
(52)
MN-10
(178)
SD-3
(248)
LA-9
(151)
MT-3
(78)
VT-3
(55)
NM-54
(183)
DE-3
(245)
CO-8
(142)
AL-9
(75)
IA-7
(62)
IL-22
(205/355)
FL-25
(242)
VA-13
(134)
IN-12
(66)
HI-4
(66)
WA-11
(216/333)
GA-13
(217)
MS-7
(121)
NE-5
(54)
MD-10
(76)
MI-18
(234/315)
OH-21
(204)
KS-6
(114)
OK-8
(49)
CA-54
(130)
WI-11
(245/304)
NC-14
(183)
SC-8
(108)
UT-5
(41)
TN-11
(141)
OR-7
(252/293)
WV-5
(169)
WY-3
(100)
ID-4
(36)
ME-4
(145)
MO-11
(263/286)
AR-6
(164)
AZ-8
(97)
TX-32
(32)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. The darker the color of the cell, the higher the margin was for the winning candidate (Light: < 5%. Medium: 5-10%, Dark: > 10%).

2
 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked up to that state. If, for example, Gore had won all the states up to and including Pennsylvania, he would have gained 290 electoral votes. Gore's numbers are only totaled through the states he would have needed in order to get to 270. In those cases, Bush's number is on the right and Gore's is on the left in italics.

The electoral votes for Washington, DC are included in the first cell at the top left. Conveniently, the district is historically the most Democratic unit within the electoral college which allows FHQ to push it off the spectrum in the interest of keeping the figure to just 50 slots.

3
 States highlighted in orange lettering are states where no polling data is available. In those cases the average of the previous three elections is used to determine the state's position in the rank ordering.

4 
States in bold are states with polling margin averages less than one percentage point.

5 Pennsylvania is the state where Bush crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election according to a weighted average of polls at the state level. That line is referred to as the victory line.


The 2000 Electoral College Spectrum1 -- 
Estimated (6/20/00)
MA-12
(15)2 3
TN-11
(151)
OR-7
(262/283)
ND-3
(158)
KY-8
(89)
NY-33
(48)
ME-4
(155)
MO-115
(273/276)
NV-4
(155)
AK-3
(81)
RI-4
(52)
NJ-15
(170)
PA-23
(265)
LA-9
(151)
MT-3
(78)
NH-4
(56)
MN-10
(180)
SD-3
(242)
CO-8
(142)
OK-8
(75)
VT-3
(59)
CT-8
(188)
FL-25
(239)
VA-13
(134)
AL-9
(67)
IA-7
(66)
NM-54
(193)
DE-3
(214)
MS-7
(121)
IN-12
(58)
HI-4
(70)
IL-22
(215/345)
GA-13
(211)
KS-6
(114)
NE-5
(46)
MD-10
(80)
WA-11
(226/323)
OH-21
(198)
SC-8
(108)
UT-5
(41)
CA-54
(134)
MI-18
(244/312)
NC-14
(177)
WY-3
(100)
ID-4
(36)
AR-6
(140)
WI-11
(255/294)
WV-5
(163)
AZ-8
(97)
TX-32
(32)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. The darker the color of the cell, the higher the margin was for the winning candidate (Light: < 5%. Medium: 5-10%, Dark: > 10%).

2
 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked up to that state. If, for example, Gore had won all the states up to and including Missouri, he would have gained 273 electoral votes. Gore's numbers are only totaled through the states he would have needed in order to get to 270. In those cases, Bush's number is on the right and Gore's is on the left in italics.

The electoral votes for Washington, DC are included in the first cell at the top left. Conveniently, the district is historically the most Democratic unit within the electoral college which allows FHQ to push it off the spectrum in the interest of keeping the figure to just 50 slots.

3
 States highlighted in orange lettering are states where no polling data is available. In those cases the average of the previous three elections is used to determine the state's position in the rank ordering.

4 
States in bold are states with polling margin averages less than one percentage point.

5 Missouri is the state where Bush crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election according to a weighted average of polls at the state level. That line is referred to as the victory line.


The 2000 Electoral College Spectrum1 -- 
Estimated (6/13/00)
MA-12
(15)2 3
TN-11
(151)
OR-7
(262/283)
WV-5
(159)
KY-8
(89)
NY-33
(48)
ME-4
(155)
MO-115
(273/276)
ND-3
(154)
AK-3
(81)
RI-4
(52)
NJ-15
(170)
PA-23
(265)
LA-9
(151)
MT-3
(78)
NH-4
(56)
MN-10
(180)
SD-3
(242)
CO-8
(142)
OK-8
(75)
VT-3
(59)
CT-8
(188)
FL-25
(239)
VA-13
(134)
AL-9
(67)
CA-54
(113)
NM-54
(193)
DE-3
(214)
MS-7
(121)
IN-12
(58)
IA-7
(120)
WA-11
(204/345)
GA-13
(211)
KS-6
(114)
NE-5
(46)
HI-4
(124)
IL-22
(226/323)
OH-21
(198)
SC-8
(108)
UT-5
(41)
MD-10
(134)
WI-11
(237/312)
NC-14
(177)
WY-3
(100)
ID-4
(36)
AR-6
(140)
MI-18
(255/301)
NV-4
(163)
AZ-8
(97)
TX-32
(32)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. The darker the color of the cell, the higher the margin was for the winning candidate (Light: < 5%. Medium: 5-10%, Dark: > 10%).

2
 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked up to that state. If, for example, Gore had won all the states up to and including Missouri, he would have gained 273 electoral votes. Gore's numbers are only totaled through the states he would have needed in order to get to 270. In those cases, Bush's number is on the right and Gore's is on the left in italics.

The electoral votes for Washington, DC are included in the first cell at the top left. Conveniently, the district is historically the most Democratic unit within the electoral college which allows FHQ to push it off the spectrum in the interest of keeping the figure to just 50 slots.

3
 States highlighted in orange lettering are states where no polling data is available. In those cases the average of the previous three elections is used to determine the state's position in the rank ordering.

4 
States in bold are states with polling margin averages less than one percentage point.

5 Missouri is the state where Bush crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election according to a weighted average of polls at the state level. That line is referred to as the victory line.


The 2000 Electoral College Spectrum1 -- 
Estimated (6/6/00)
MA-12
(15)2 3
TN-11
(151)
OR-7
(262/283)
NV-4
(155)
KY-8
(89)
NY-33
(48)
ME-4
(155)
MO-115
(273/276)
WV-5
(151)
AK-3
(81)
RI-4
(52)
NJ-15
(170)
PA-23
(265)
ND-3
(146)
MT-3
(78)
NH-4
(56)
MN-10
(180)
SD-3
(242)
LA-9
(143)
OK-8
(75)
VT-3
(59)
CT-8
(188)
FL-25
(239)
VA-13
(134)
AL-9
(67)
CA-54
(113)
NM-54
(193)
DE-3
(214)
MS-7
(121)
IN-12
(58)
IA-7
(120)
WA-11
(204/345)
GA-13
(211)
KS-6
(114)
NE-5
(46)
HI-4
(124)
IL-22
(226/323)
CO-8
(198)
SC-8
(108)
UT-5
(41)
MD-10
(134)
WI-11
(237/312)
OH-21
(190)
WY-3
(100)
ID-4
(36)
AR-6
(140)
MI-18
(255/301)
NC-14
(169)
AZ-8
(97)
TX-32
(32)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. The darker the color of the cell, the higher the margin was for the winning candidate (Light: < 5%. Medium: 5-10%, Dark: > 10%).

2
 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked up to that state. If, for example, Gore had won all the states up to and including Missouri, he would have gained 284 electoral votes. Gore's numbers are only totaled through the states he would have needed in order to get to 270. In those cases, Bush's number is on the right and Gore's is on the left in italics.

The electoral votes for Washington, DC are included in the first cell at the top left. Conveniently, the district is historically the most Democratic unit within the electoral college which allows FHQ to push it off the spectrum in the interest of keeping the figure to just 50 slots.

3
 States highlighted in orange lettering are states where no polling data is available. In those cases the average of the previous three elections is used to determine the state's position in the rank ordering.

4 
States in bold are states with polling margin averages less than one percentage point.

5 Missouri is the state where Bush crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election according to a weighted average of polls at the state level. That line is referred to as the victory line.


The 2000 Electoral College Spectrum1 -- 
Estimated (5/30/00)
MA-12
(15)2 3
TN-11
(151)
OR-7
(262/283)
NV-4
(155)
AZ-8
(88)
NY-33
(48)
ME-4
(155)
PA-235
(285/276)
WV-5
(151)
KY-8
(80)
RI-4
(52)
NJ-15
(170)
MO-11
(253)
ND-3
(146)
AK-3
(72)
NH-4
(56)
MN-10
(180)
SD-3
(242)
LA-9
(143)
MT-3
(69)
VT-3
(59)
CT-8
(188)
FL-25
(239)
VA-13
(134)
OK-8
(66)
CA-54
(113)
NM-54
(193)
DE-3
(214)
MS-7
(121)
IN-12
(58)
IA-7
(120)
WA-11
(204/345)
GA-13
(211)
KS-6
(114)
NE-5
(46)
HI-4
(124)
IL-22
(226/323)
CO-8
(198)
SC-8
(108)
UT-5
(41)
MD-10
(134)
WI-11
(237/312)
OH-21
(190)
AL-9
(100)
ID-4
(36)
AR-6
(140)
MI-18
(255/301)
NC-14
(169)
WY-3
(91)
TX-32
(32)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. The darker the color of the cell, the higher the margin was for the winning candidate (Light: < 5%. Medium: 5-10%, Dark: > 10%).

2
 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked up to that state. If, for example, Gore had won all the states up to and including Pennsylvania, he would have gained 285 electoral votes. Gore's numbers are only totaled through the states he would have needed in order to get to 270. In those cases, Bush's number is on the right and Gore's is on the left in italics.

The electoral votes for Washington, DC are included in the first cell at the top left. Conveniently, the district is historically the most Democratic unit within the electoral college which allows FHQ to push it off the spectrum in the interest of keeping the figure to just 50 slots.

3
 States highlighted in orange lettering are states where no polling data is available. In those cases the average of the previous three elections is used to determine the state's position in the rank ordering.

4 
States in bold are states with polling margin averages less than one percentage point.

5 Pennsylvania is the state where Bush crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election according to a weighted average of polls at the state level. That line is referred to as the victory line.


The 2000 Electoral College Spectrum1 -- 
Estimated (5/23/00)
MA-12
(15)2 3
TN-11
(151)
MT-3
(258/283)
NC-14
(166)
WY-3
(88)
NY-33
(48)
ME-4
(155)
OR-7
(265/280)
NV-4
(152)
AZ-8
(85)
RI-4
(52)
NJ-15
(170)
PA-235
(288/273)
WV-5
(148)
KY-8
(77)
NH-4
(56)
MN-10
(180)
MO-11
(250)
ND-3
(143)
AK-3
(69)
VT-3
(59)
CT-8
(188)
SD-3
(239)
LA-9
(140)
OK-8
(66)
CA-54
(113)
NM-54
(193)
FL-25
(236)
VA-13
(131)
IN-12
(58)
IA-7
(120)
WA-11
(204/345)
DE-3
(211)
MS-7
(118)
NE-5
(46)
HI-4
(124)
IL-22
(226/323)
GA-13
(208)
KS-6
(111)
UT-5
(41)
MD-10
(134)
WI-11
(237/312)
CO-8
(195)
SC-8
(105)
ID-4
(36)
AR-6
(140)
MI-18
(255/301)
OH-21
(187)
AL-9
(97)
TX-32
(32)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. The darker the color of the cell, the higher the margin was for the winning candidate (Light: < 5%. Medium: 5-10%, Dark: > 10%).

2
 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked up to that state. If, for example, Gore had won all the states up to and including Pennsylvania, he would have gained 288 electoral votes. Gore's numbers are only totaled through the states he would have needed in order to get to 270. In those cases, Bush's number is on the right and Gore's is on the left in italics.

The electoral votes for Washington, DC are included in the first cell at the top left. Conveniently, the district is historically the most Democratic unit within the electoral college which allows FHQ to push it off the spectrum in the interest of keeping the figure to just 50 slots.

3
 States highlighted in orange lettering are states where no polling data is available. In those cases the average of the previous three elections is used to determine the state's position in the rank ordering.

4 
States in bold are states with polling margin averages less than one percentage point.

5 Pennsylvania is the state where Bush crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election according to a weighted average of polls at the state level. That line is referred to as the victory line.


The 2000 Electoral College Spectrum1 -- 
Estimated (5/16/00)
MA-12
(15)2 3
TN-11
(151)
MI-18
(258/298)
NC-14
(161)
AL-9
(89)
NY-33
(48)
ME-4
(155)
OR-7
(265/280)
NV-4
(147)
WY-3
(80)
RI-4
(52)
NJ-15
(170)
PA-235
(288/273)
DE-3
(143)
KY-8
(77)
NH-4
(56)
MN-10
(180)
MO-11
(250)
WV-5
(140)
AK-3
(69)
VT-3
(59)
CT-8
(188)
SD-3
(239)
ND-3
(135)
OK-8
(66)
CA-54
(113)
WI-114
(199)
FL-25
(236)
LA-9
(132)
IN-12
(58)
IA-7
(120)
NM-5
(204)
GA-13
(211)
VA-13
(123)
NE-5
(46)
HI-4
(124)
WA-11
(215/334)
CO-8
(198)
MS-7
(110)
UT-5
(41)
MD-10
(134)
IL-22
(237/323)
AZ-8
(190)
KS-6
(103)
ID-4
(36)
AR-6
(140)
MT-3
(240/301)
OH-21
(182)
SC-8
(97)
TX-32
(32)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. The darker the color of the cell, the higher the margin was for the winning candidate (Light: < 5%. Medium: 5-10%, Dark: > 10%).

2
 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked up to that state. If, for example, Gore had won all the states up to and including Pennsylvania, he would have gained 288 electoral votes. Gore's numbers are only totaled through the states he would have needed in order to get to 270. In those cases, Bush's number is on the right and Gore's is on the left in italics.

The electoral votes for Washington, DC are included in the first cell at the top left. Conveniently, the district is historically the most Democratic unit within the electoral college which allows FHQ to push it off the spectrum in the interest of keeping the figure to just 50 slots.

3
 States highlighted in orange lettering are states where no polling data is available. In those cases the average of the previous three elections is used to determine the state's position in the rank ordering.

4 
States in bold are states with polling margin averages less than one percentage point.

5 Pennsylvania is the state where Bush crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election according to a weighted average of polls at the state level. That line is referred to as the victory line.


The 2000 Electoral College Spectrum1 -- 
Estimated (5/9/00)
MA-12
(15)2 3
AR-6
(148)
MI-18
(258/298)
NC-14
(161)
AL-9
(89)
NY-33
(48)
TN-11
(159)
OR-7
(265/280)
NV-4
(147)
WY-3
(80)
RI-4
(52)
ME-4
(163)
PA-235
(288/273)
DE-3
(143)
KY-8
(77)
NH-4
(56)
NJ-15
(178)
MO-11
(250)
WV-5
(140)
AK-3
(69)
VT-3
(59)
MN-10
(188)
SD-3
(239)
ND-3
(135)
OK-8
(66)
CA-54
(113)
WI-114
(199)
FL-25
(236)
LA-9
(132)
IN-12
(58)
IA-7
(120)
NM-5
(204)
GA-13
(211)
VA-13
(123)
NE-5
(46)
HI-4
(124)
WA-11
(215/334)
CO-8
(198)
MS-7
(110)
UT-5
(41)
MD-10
(134)
IL-22
(237/323)
AZ-8
(190)
KS-6
(103)
ID-4
(36)
CT-8
(142)
MT-3
(240/301)
OH-21
(182)
SC-8
(97)
TX-32
(32)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. The darker the color of the cell, the higher the margin was for the winning candidate (Light: < 5%. Medium: 5-10%, Dark: > 10%).

2
 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked up to that state. If, for example, Gore had won all the states up to and including Pennsylvania, he would have gained 288 electoral votes. Gore's numbers are only totaled through the states he would have needed in order to get to 270. In those cases, Bush's number is on the right and Gore's is on the left in italics.

The electoral votes for Washington, DC are included in the first cell at the top left. Conveniently, the district is historically the most Democratic unit within the electoral college which allows FHQ to push it off the spectrum in the interest of keeping the figure to just 50 slots.

3
 States highlighted in orange lettering are states where no polling data is available. In those cases the average of the previous three elections is used to determine the state's position in the rank ordering.

4 
States in bold are states with polling margin averages less than one percentage point.

5 Pennsylvania is the state where Bush crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election according to a weighted average of polls at the state level. That line is referred to as the victory line.


The 2000 Electoral College Spectrum1 -- 
Estimated (5/2/00)
MA-12
(15)2 3
CT-8
(157)
MI-18
(258/298)
OH-21
(178)
WY-3
(89)
HI-4
(19)
AR-6
(163)
OR-7
(265/280)
VA-13
(157)
AL-9
(86)
RI-4
(23)
TN-11
(174)
PA-235
(288/273)
DE-3
(144)
KY-8
(77)
NY-33
(56)
ME-4
(178)
MO-11
(250)
WV-5
(141)
AK-3
(69)
NH-4
(60)
MN-10
(188)
FL-25
(239)
NC-14
(136)
OK-8
(66)
VT-3
(63)
WI-114
(199)
SD-3
(214)
ND-3
(122)
IN-12
(58)
IA-7
(70)
NM-5
(204)
CO-8
(211)
LA-9
(119)
UT-5
(46)
NJ-15
(85)
WA-11
(215/334)
AZ-8
(203)
MS-7
(110)
ID-4
(41)
CA-54
(139)
IL-22
(237/323)
GA-13
(195)
KS-6
(103)
NE-5
(37)
MD-10
(149)
MT-3
(240/301)
NV-4
(182)
SC-8
(97)
TX-32
(32)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. The darker the color of the cell, the higher the margin was for the winning candidate (Light: < 5%. Medium: 5-10%, Dark: > 10%).

2
 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked up to that state. If, for example, Gore had won all the states up to and including Pennsylvania, he would have gained 288 electoral votes. Gore's numbers are only totaled through the states he would have needed in order to get to 270. In those cases, Bush's number is on the right and Gore's is on the left in italics.

The electoral votes for Washington, DC are included in the first cell at the top left. Conveniently, the district is historically the most Democratic unit within the electoral college which allows FHQ to push it off the spectrum in the interest of keeping the figure to just 50 slots.

3
 States highlighted in orange lettering are states where no polling data is available. In those cases the average of the previous three elections is used to determine the state's position in the rank ordering.

4 
States in bold are states with polling margin averages less than one percentage point.

5 Pennsylvania is the state where Bush crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election according to a weighted average of polls at the state level. That line is referred to as the victory line.


The 2000 Electoral College Spectrum1 -- 
Estimated (4/25/00)
MA-12
(15)2 3
CT-8
(157)
MI-18
(258/298)
NC-14
(178)
WY-3
(89)
HI-4
(19)
AR-6
(163)
OR-7
(265/280)
OH-21
(164)
AL-9
(86)
RI-4
(23)
TN-11
(174)
PA-235
(288/273)
VA-13
(143)
KY-8
(77)
NY-33
(56)
ME-4
(178)
MO-11
(250)
DE-3
(130)
AK-3
(69)
NH-4
(60)
MN-10
(188)
FL-25
(239)
WV-5
(127)
OK-8
(66)
VT-3
(63)
WI-114
(199)
SD-3
(214)
ND-3
(122)
IN-12
(58)
IA-7
(70)
NM-5
(204)
CO-8
(211)
LA-9
(119)
UT-5
(46)
NJ-15
(85)
WA-11
(215/334)
AZ-8
(203)
MS-7
(110)
ID-4
(41)
CA-54
(139)
IL-22
(237/323)
GA-13
(195)
KS-6
(103)
NE-5
(37)
MD-10
(149)
MT-3
(240/301)
NV-4
(182)
SC-8
(97)
TX-32
(32)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. The darker the color of the cell, the higher the margin was for the winning candidate (Light: < 5%. Medium: 5-10%, Dark: > 10%).

2
 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked up to that state. If, for example, Gore had won all the states up to and including Pennsylvania, he would have gained 288 electoral votes. Gore's numbers are only totaled through the states he would have needed in order to get to 270. In those cases, Bush's number is on the right and Gore's is on the left in italics.

The electoral votes for Washington, DC are included in the first cell at the top left. Conveniently, the district is historically the most Democratic unit within the electoral college which allows FHQ to push it off the spectrum in the interest of keeping the figure to just 50 slots.

3
 States highlighted in orange lettering are states where no polling data is available. In those cases the average of the previous three elections is used to determine the state's position in the rank ordering.

4 
States in bold are states with polling margin averages less than one percentage point.

5 Pennsylvania is the state where Bush crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election according to a weighted average of polls at the state level. That line is referred to as the victory line.


The 2000 Electoral College Spectrum1 -- 
Estimated (4/18/00)
MA-12
(15)2 3
MD-10
(154)
MT-3
(245/296)
OH-21
(177)
WY-3
(89)
HI-4
(19)
CT-8
(162)
MI-18
(263/293)
NV-4
(156)
KY-8
(86)
RI-4
(23)
AR-6
(168)
OR-75
(270/275)
NC-14
(152)
AL-9
(78)
NY-33
(56)
TN-11
(179)
PA-23
(268)
VA-13
(138)
AK-3
(69)
NH-4
(60)
ME-4
(183)
MO-11
(245)
DE-3
(125)
OK-8
(66)
VT-3
(63)
MN-10
(193)
FL-25
(234)
ND-3
(122)
IN-12
(58)
WV-5
(68)
WI-114
(204)
SD-3
(209)
LA-9
(119)
UT-5
(46)
IA-7
(75)
WA-11
(215)
CO-8
(206)
MS-7
(110)
ID-4
(41)
NJ-15
(90)
NM-5
(220)
AZ-8
(198)
KS-6
(103)
NE-5
(37)
CA-54
(144)
IL-22
(242/318)
GA-13
(190)
SC-8
(97)
TX-32
(32)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. The darker the color of the cell, the higher the margin was for the winning candidate (Light: < 5%. Medium: 5-10%, Dark: > 10%).

2
 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked up to that state. If, for example, Gore had won all the states up to and including Oregon, he would have gained 270 electoral votes. Gore's numbers are only totaled through the states he would have needed in order to get to 270. In those cases, Bush's number is on the right and Gore's is on the left in italics.

The electoral votes for Washington, DC are included in the first cell at the top left. Conveniently, the district is historically the most Democratic unit within the electoral college which allows FHQ to push it off the spectrum in the interest of keeping the figure to just 50 slots.

3
 States highlighted in orange lettering are states where no polling data is available. In those cases the average of the previous three elections is used to determine the state's position in the rank ordering.

4 
States in bold are states with polling margin averages less than one percentage point.

5 Oregon is the state where Bush crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election according to a weighted average of polls at the state level. That line is referred to as the victory line.


The 2000 Electoral College Spectrum1 -- 
Estimated (4/11/00)
MA-12
(15)2 3
OR-7
(151)
WI-114
(253)
GA-13
(181)
WY-3
(89)
HI-4
(19)
MD-10
(161)
NM-5
(258)
OH-21
(168)
KY-8
(86)
RI-4
(23)
CT-8
(169)
MT-3
(261/280)
NV-4
(147)
AL-9
(78)
NY-33
(56)
AR-6
(175)
PA-235
(284/277)
NC-14
(143)
AK-3
(69)
NH-4
(60)
TN-11
(186)
MO-11
(254)
VA-13
(129)
OK-8
(66)
VT-3
(63)
ME-4
(190)
FL-25
(243)
DE-3
(116)
IN-12
(58)
WV-5
(68)
MN-10
(200)
SD-3
(218)
ND-3
(113)
UT-5
(46)
IA-7
(75)
WA-11
(211)
CO-8
(215)
MS-7
(110)
ID-4
(41)
CA-54
(129)
IL-22
(233)
MI-18
(207)
KS-6
(103)
NE-5
(37)
NJ-15
(144)
LA-9
(242)
AZ-8
(189)
SC-8
(97)
TX-32
(32)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. The darker the color of the cell, the higher the margin was for the winning candidate (Light: < 5%. Medium: 5-10%, Dark: > 10%).

2
 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked up to that state. If, for example, Gore had won all the states up to and including Pennsylvania, he would have gained 284 electoral votes. Gore's numbers are only totaled through the states he would have needed in order to get to 270. In those cases, Bush's number is on the right and Gore's is on the left in italics.

The electoral votes for Washington, DC are included in the first cell at the top left. Conveniently, the district is historically the most Democratic unit within the electoral college which allows FHQ to push it off the spectrum in the interest of keeping the figure to just 50 slots.

3
 States highlighted in orange lettering are states where no polling data is available. In those cases the average of the previous three elections is used to determine the state's position in the rank ordering.

4 
States in bold are states with polling margin averages less than one percentage point.

5 Pennsylvania is the state where Bush crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election according to a weighted average of polls at the state level. That line is referred to as the victory line.


The 2000 Electoral College Spectrum1 -- 
Estimated (4/4/00)
MA-12
(15)2 3
OR-7
(151)
WI-114
(253)
GA-13
(181)
WY-3
(89)
HI-4
(19)
MD-10
(161)
NM-5
(258)
OH-21
(168)
KY-8
(86)
RI-4
(23)
AR-6
(167)
MT-3
(261/280)
NV-4
(147)
AK-3
(78)
NY-33
(56)
TN-11
(178)
PA-235
(284/277)
NC-14
(143)
OK-8
(75)
NH-4
(60)
ME-4
(182)
MO-11
(254)
VA-13
(129)
IN-12
(67)
VT-3
(63)
CT-8
(190)
FL-25
(243)
DE-3
(116)
AL-9
(55)
WV-5
(68)
MN-10
(200)
SD-3
(218)
ND-3
(113)
UT-5
(46)
IA-7
(75)
WA-11
(211)
CO-8
(215)
MS-7
(110)
ID-4
(41)
CA-54
(129)
IL-22
(233)
MI-18
(207)
KS-6
(103)
NE-5
(37)
NJ-15
(144)
LA-9
(242)
AZ-8
(189)
SC-8
(97)
TX-32
(32)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. The darker the color of the cell, the higher the margin was for the winning candidate (Light: < 5%. Medium: 5-10%, Dark: > 10%).

2
 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked up to that state. If, for example, Gore had won all the states up to and including Pennsylvania, he would have gained 284 electoral votes. Gore's numbers are only totaled through the states he would have needed in order to get to 270. In those cases, Bush's number is on the right and Gore's is on the left in italics.

The electoral votes for Washington, DC are included in the first cell at the top left. Conveniently, the district is historically the most Democratic unit within the electoral college which allows FHQ to push it off the spectrum in the interest of keeping the figure to just 50 slots.

3
 States highlighted in orange lettering are states where no polling data is available. In those cases the average of the previous three elections is used to determine the state's position in the rank ordering.

4 
States in bold are states with polling margin averages less than one percentage point.

5 Pennsylvania is the state where Bush crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election according to a weighted average of polls at the state level. That line is referred to as the victory line.


The 2000 Electoral College Spectrum1 -- 
Estimated (3/28/00)
MA-12
(15)2 3
OR-7
(151)
WI-114
(253)
GA-13
(181)
SC-8
(98)
HI-4
(19)
MD-10
(161)
NM-5
(258)
NV-4
(168)
OH-21
(90)
RI-4
(23)
AR-6
(167)
MT-3
(261/280)
NC-14
(164)
WY-3
(69)
NY-33
(56)
TN-11
(178)
PA-235
(284/277)
VA-13
(150)
KY-8
(66)
NH-4
(60)
ME-4
(182)
MO-11
(254)
DE-3
(137)
AK-3
(58)
VT-3
(63)
CT-8
(190)
FL-25
(243)
IN-12
(134)
AL-9
(55)
WV-5
(68)
MN-10
(200)
SD-3
(218)
ND-3
(122)
UT-5
(46)
IA-7
(75)
WA-11
(211)
CO-8
(215)
OK-8
(119)
ID-4
(41)
CA-54
(129)
IL-22
(233)
MI-18
(207)
MS-7
(111)
NE-5
(37)
NJ-15
(144)
LA-9
(242)
AZ-8
(189)
KS-6
(104)
TX-32
(32)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. The darker the color of the cell, the higher the margin was for the winning candidate (Light: < 5%. Medium: 5-10%, Dark: > 10%).

2
 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked up to that state. If, for example, Gore had won all the states up to and including Pennsylvania, he would have gained 284 electoral votes. Gore's numbers are only totaled through the states he would have needed in order to get to 270. In those cases, Bush's number is on the right and Gore's is on the left in italics.

The electoral votes for Washington, DC are included in the first cell at the top left. Conveniently, the district is historically the most Democratic unit within the electoral college which allows FHQ to push it off the spectrum in the interest of keeping the figure to just 50 slots.

3
 States highlighted in orange lettering are states where no polling data is available. In those cases the average of the previous three elections is used to determine the state's position in the rank ordering.

4 
States in bold are states with polling margin averages less than one percentage point.

5 Pennsylvania is the state where Bush crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election according to a weighted average of polls at the state level. That line is referred to as the victory line.


The 2000 Electoral College Spectrum1 -- 
Estimated (3/21/00)
MA-12
(15)2 3
MD-10
(146)
LA-9
(253)
GA-13
(181)
SC-8
(98)
HI-4
(19)
AR-6
(152)
NM-54
(258)
NV-4
(168)
OH-21
(90)
RI-4
(23)
WI-11
(163)
PA-235
(281/280)
NC-14
(164)
WY-3
(69)
NY-33
(56)
TN-11
(174)
MT-3
(257)
VA-13
(150)
KY-8
(66)
NH-4
(60)
ME-4
(178)
MO-11
(254)
DE-3
(137)
AK-3
(58)
VT-3
(63)
NJ-15
(193)
FL-25
(243)
IN-12
(134)
NE-5
(55)
WV-5
(68)
CT-8
(201)
SD-3
(218)
ND-3
(122)
AL-9
(50)
IA-7
(75)
MN-10
(211)
CO-8
(215)
OK-8
(119)
UT-5
(41)
CA-54
(129)
WA-11
(222)
MI-18
(207)
MS-7
(111)
ID-4
(36)
OR-7
(136)
IL-22
(244)
AZ-8
(189)
KS-6
(104)
TX-32
(32)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. The darker the color of the cell, the higher the margin was for the winning candidate (Light: < 5%. Medium: 5-10%, Dark: > 10%).

2
 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked up to that state. If, for example, Bush had won all the states up to and including Pennsylvania, he would have gained 280 electoral votes. Bush's numbers are only totaled through the states he would have needed in order to get to 270. In those cases, Bush's number is on the right and Gore's is on the left in italics.

The electoral votes for Washington, DC are included in the first cell at the top left. Conveniently, the district is historically the most Democratic unit within the electoral college which allows FHQ to push it off the spectrum in the interest of keeping the figure to just 50 slots.

3
 States highlighted in orange lettering are states where no polling data is available. In those cases the average of the previous three elections is used to determine the state's position in the rank ordering.

4 
States in bold are states with polling margin averages less than one percentage point.

5 Pennsylvania is the state where Gore crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election according to a weighted average of polls at the state level. That line is referred to as the victory line.


The 2000 Electoral College Spectrum1 -- 
Estimated (3/14/00)
MA-12
(15)2 3
MD-10
(146)
IL-22
(247)
FL-25
(193)
SC-8
(98)
HI-4
(19)
AR-6
(152)
PA-234 5
(270/291)
NV-4
(168)
OH-21
(90)
RI-4
(23)
WI-11
(163)
MT-3
(268)
NC-14
(164)
WY-3
(69)
NY-33
(56)
ME-4
(167)
TN-11
(265)
VA-13
(150)
KY-8
(66)
NH-4
(60)
NJ-15
(182)
MO-11
(254)
DE-3
(137)
AK-3
(58)
VT-3
(63)
NM-5
(187)
SD-3
(243)
IN-12
(134)
NE-5
(55)
WV-5
(68)
CT-8
(195)
CO-8
(240)
ND-3
(122)
AL-9
(50)
IA-7
(75)
MN-10
(205)
AZ-8
(232)
OK-8
(119)
UT-5
(41)
CA-54
(129)
WA-11
(216)
GA-13
(224)
MS-7
(111)
ID-4
(36)
OR-7
(136)
LA-9
(225)
MI-18
(211)
KS-6
(104)
TX-32
(32)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. The darker the color of the cell, the higher the margin was for the winning candidate (Light: < 5%. Medium: 5-10%, Dark: > 10%).

2
 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked up to that state. If, for example, Bush had won all the states up to and including Pennsylvania, he would have gained 291 electoral votes. Bush's numbers are only totaled through the states he would have needed in order to get to 270. In those cases, Bush's number is on the right and Gore's is on the left in italics.

The electoral votes for Washington, DC are included in the first cell at the top left. Conveniently, the district is historically the most Democratic unit within the electoral college which allows FHQ to push it off the spectrum in the interest of keeping the figure to just 50 slots.

3
 States highlighted in orange lettering are states where no polling data is available. In those cases the average of the previous three elections is used to determine the state's position in the rank ordering.

4 
States in bold are states with polling margin averages less than one percentage point.

5 Pennsylvania is the state where Gore crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election according to a weighted average of polls at the state level. That line is referred to as the victory line.


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Wednesday, December 5, 2012

The 1996 Electoral College Spectrum

From 1992 to 1996:

The 1996 Electoral College Spectrum1
MA-12
(15)2
MN-10
(124)
NH-4
(256)
KY-8
(379/167)
SC-8
(54)
RI-4
(19)
MD-10
(134)
PA-233
(279/282)
GA-13
(159)
ND-3
(46)
NY-33
(52)
DE-3
(137)
OR-7
(286/259)
CO-8
(146)
AL-9
(43)
HI-4
(56)
WV-5
(142)
NM-5
(291/252)
VA-13
(138)
OK-8
(34)
VT-3
(59)
MI-18
(160)
OH-21
(312/247)
MT-3
(125)
WY-3
(26)
ME-4
(63)
CA-54
(214)
MO-11
(323/226)
SD-3
(122)
AK-3
(23)
CT-8
(71)
WA-11
(225)
FL-25
(348/215)
NC-14
(119)
KS-6
(20)
NJ-15
(86)
LA-9
(234)
TN-11
(359/190)
TX-32
(105)
ID-4
(14)
IL-22
(108)
IA-7
(241)
AZ-8
(367/179)
MS-7
(73)
NE-5
(10)
AR-6
(114)
WI-11
(252)
NV-4
(371/171)
IN-12
(66)
UT-5
(5)
1Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. The darker the color of the cell, the higher the margin was for the winning candidate (Light: < 5%. Medium: 5-10%, Dark: > 10%).

2
The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked up to that state. If, for example, Dole had won all the states up to and including Tennessee, he would have gained 282 electoral votes. Dole's numbers are only totaled through the states he would have needed in order to get to 270. In those cases, Clinton's number is on the left and Dole's is on the right in italics.


The electoral votes for Washington, DC are included in the first cell at the top left. Conveniently, the district is historically the most Democratic unit within the electoral college which allows FHQ to push it off the spectrum in the interest of keeping the figure to just 50 slots.

3
Pennsylvania is the state where Clinton crossed the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line.

NOTES:
1) Again, the movement of the color lines from cycle to cycle is not as important as the changes in ordering of the states.

2) 1996 is the first year in the time period being examined in which a sitting president was reelected. The spectrum from 1992, then, should bear some resemblance to the figure above. What's interesting is how regional groupings of states shift in similar directions more clearly in 1996 than they have in other years. Bear in mind that we are talking about shifts in positioning on the spectrum and not changes in shares of the vote or margins between the candidates. For example, this spectrum shows a certain consolidation of the northeast for the Democratic Party. Of the ten states in the far left column -- the most Democratic -- seven are from the northeast (or mid-Atlantic). New Hampshire even moved over an entire column to the left of the tipping point state (Pennsylvania).

On the whole, midwestern states (see Iowa, Michigan, Ohio, Wisconsin) pushed over toward Clinton in the order in 1996 and border (Arkansas, Missouri, West Virginia) and Pacific (California, Oregon and Washington) states moved in the opposite direction; toward Dole.

3) If we shift our focus to the evolution of the positions of the 2012 swing states, we also see a closer alignment with what has been witnessed in terms of the electoral college spectrum order over the last two cycles. Iowa, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Florida and New Hampshire are all collectively more proximate to the tipping point than they were in the prior cases. Colorado, North Carolina and Virginia are all within striking distance competition-wise but on the opposite end of the partisan line from the winning candidate. The full group of toss up states (in FHQ's typology) is clustered much more in 1996 than was the case in, say, 1984. And mind you, that is in no ways a surprise. Again, this is an evolutionary process and we should expect to see movement toward the most recent alignment of states (within the context of the other idiosyncratic factors unique to each election cycle).

4) FHQ will spare you another nearly duplicate spectrum to account for the influence of Perot in the 1996 election. It was far more muted than was the case in 1992 and that translated to the spectrum as well. The two-party version of the 1996 electoral college spectrum was not overly different from the one above. No state shifted more than one position on the table. So, we're talking about a limited number of less than consequential flip-flops.


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Monday, December 3, 2012

The 1992 Electoral College Spectrum

From 1988 to 1992:

The 1992 Electoral College Spectrum1
MA-12
(15)2
WA-11
(173)
IA-7
(263)
NH-4
(357/185)
IN-12
(64)
RI-4
(19)
HI-4
(177)
TN-113
(274/275)
GA-13
(370/181)
AL-9
(52)
AR-6
(25)
MO-11
(188)
LA-9
(283/264)
NC-14
(168)
SC-8
(43)
NY-33
(58)
OR-7
(195)
WI-11
(294/255)
FL-25
(154)
OK-8
(35)
VT-3
(61)
PA-23
(218)
CO-8
(302/244)
AZ-8
(129)
MS-7
(27)
IL-22
(83)
NM-5
(223)
KY-8
(310/236)
TX-32
(121)
AK-3
(20)
MD-10
(93)
ME-4
(227)
NV-4
(314/228)
SD-3
(89)
ND-3
(17)
CA-54
(147)
DE-3
(230)
MT-3
(317/224)
VA-13
(86)
ID-4
(14)
WV-5
(152)
MI-18
(248)
NJ-15
(332/221)
KS-6
(73)
UT-5
(10)
MN-10
(162)
CT-8
(256)
OH-21
(353/206)
WY-3
(67)
NE-5
(5)
1Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. The darker the color of the cell, the higher the margin was for the winning candidate (Light: < 5%. Medium: 5-10%, Dark: > 10%).

2
The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked up to that state. If, for example, Bush had won all the states up to and including Tennessee, he would have gained 275 electoral votes. Bush's numbers are only totaled through the states he would have needed in order to get to 270. In those cases, Clinton's number is on the left and Bush's is on the right in italics.


The electoral votes for Washington, DC are included in the first cell at the top left. Conveniently, the district is historically the most Democratic unit within the electoral college which allows FHQ to push it off the spectrum in the interest of keeping the figure to just 50 slots.

3
Tennessee is the state where Clinton crossed the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line.

NOTES:
1) Again, the movement of the color lines from cycle to cycle is not as important as the ordering of the states. Though there are some southern and border states that were pulled into a more competitive area on the spectrum (due to the nomination of Clinton), they are all with the exception of Arkansas to the right of the tipping point state.

2) Tennessee was the tipping point state in 1992. George H. W. Bush would have needed an approximately five percentage point (4.65%) swing in his direction to bring enough states with enough electoral votes to surpass the 270 threshold in order to have claimed victory. Despite the post-1990 reapportionment, the tipping point state stayed in the same position as it had been in 1988.

3) Looking at the 2012 swing states, Pennsylvania and Iowa continued to be on the left side of the tipping point state and the partisan line. Iowa, however, shifted considerably toward the center, occupying the space just to the Clinton side of the tipping point state. Similarly Nevada and New Hampshire jumped from the column furthest to the right in toward the center. Both were on the Clinton side of the partisan line separating both candidates' shares of states. Florida followed Nevada and New Hampshire, but reverted to a position closer to where it was in the 1984 ordering. That position in 1992 was much closer to the partisan line and tipping point than was the case in Reagan's reelection. Colorado, as in 1988 but not 1984, laid claim to slot in the order in the middle and typically most competitive column.

4) North Carolina and Virginia, unlike the other 2012 swing states above, are among the stickiest of states. Across the three election cycles from 1984-1992, neither states moved all that much in the rank ordering. To put it in Silverian terms but in a slightly different context, North Carolina less elastic than Virginia, but both are comparatively inelastic compared to the other 2012 swing states. North Carolina only moved one spot across the three elections. Virginia oscillated within a five spot radius across the three cycles.

5) Notably, Ohio was closer to the partisan line than the tipping point in 1992 as compared to the two immediately prior cycles. The Buckeye state was on the winning side of the partisan line, and it was more a part of a national swing than a state that put Clinton over the top in the electoral college. That is quite a bit different from how we have grow accustomed to viewing Ohio.

6) With few exceptions, this spectrum looks a lot like -- in order and in color on the left side of the figure -- the spectrum that we have witnessed in the time since 1992. West Virginia is still off to the left side, "protected" by the nomination of a southerner on the Democratic ticket. The same can be said, though to a lesser extent, about Missouri. Arkansas, obviously as a home state of the candidate at the top of the ticket, moved well off to the left of where it had been in 1984 or 1988.

7) If one caveat could be added to the discussion, it is that Ross Perot's candidacy and general election success (19% of the vote nationally) could cause problems in the analysis in terms of the comparability to the two earlier elections examined. It is not a perfect solution, but if we exclude Perot and look at just the percentage of the two-party vote that Clinton and Bush received (and the resulting margin between them), the picture does not differ all that substantially (see below) from the spectrum above. There is some movement -- particularly in terms of the shading of cells -- but no state shifted more than three cells and no state changed columns. There was continuity, then, in the clustering if not ordering of states. It is worth pointing out that under that scenario Colorado becomes the tipping point state.


The 1992 Electoral College Spectrum (Two-Party Vote)1
MA-12
(15)2
WA-11
(173)
IA-7
(263)
NH-4
(357/185)
AL-9
(64)
RI-4
(19)
HI-4
(177)
CO-83
(271/275)
GA-13
(370/181)
IN-12
(52)
VT-3
(22)
OR-7
(184)
WI-11
(282/267)
NC-14
(168)
SC-8
(43)
AR-6
(28)
MO-11
(195)
LA-9
(291/256)
FL-25
(154)
MS-7
(35)
NY-33
(61)
ME-4
(199)
TN-11
(302/247)
AZ-8
(129)
OK-8
(28)
IL-22
(83)
PA-23
(222)
KY-8
(310/236)
TX-32
(121)
AK-3
(20)
CA-54
(137)
DE-3
(225)
NV-4
(314/228)
SD-3
(89)
ND-3
(17)
MD-10
(147)
NM-5
(230)
MT-3
(317/224)
VA-13
(86)
ID-4
(14)
WV-5
(152)
MI-18
(248)
NJ-15
(332/221)
KS-6
(73)
NE-5
(10)
MN-10
(162)
CT-8
(256)
OH-21
(353/206)
WY-3
(67)
UT-5
(5)
1Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. The darker the color of the cell, the higher the margin was for the winning candidate (Light: < 5%. Medium: 5-10%, Dark: > 10%).

This rank ordering of states excludes Ross Perot, examining the vote percentage margin between Clinton and Bush in the two-party vote. 

2
The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked up to that state. If, for example, Bush had won all the states up to and including Colorado, he would have gained 275 electoral votes. Bush's numbers are only totaled through the states he would have needed in order to get to 270. In those cases, Clinton's number is on the left and Bush's is on the right in italics.

The electoral votes for Washington, DC are included in the first cell at the top left. Conveniently, the district is historically the most Democratic unit within the electoral college which allows FHQ to push it off the spectrum in the interest of keeping the figure to just 50 slots.

3
Colorado is the state where Clinton crossed the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line.



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