Tuesday, October 30, 2012

The Electoral College Map (10/30/12)

With one week to go in the race for the White House, the pace of home-stretch polling is picking up some. There were 16 new surveys released from 11 states.

New State Polls (10/30/12)
State
Poll
Date
Margin of Error
Sample
Obama
Romney
Undecided
Poll Margin
FHQ Margin
Florida
10/24-10/27
+/- 3.4%
800 likely voters
49
47
4
+2
+0.38
Florida
10/25-10/27
+/- 4.1%
595 likely voters
47
47
5
0
--
Florida
10/27-10/29
+/- 3.5%
828 likely voters
47.4
46.7
3.6
+0.7
--
Georgia
10/25-10/28
+/- 4.2%
574 likely voters
44
52
2
+8
+9.47
Iowa
10/29-10/30
+/- 3.8%
676 likely voters
50
45
4
+5
+2.81
Massachusetts
10/25-10/28
+/- 4.0%
600 likely voters
63
31
3
+32
+20.07
Michigan
10/27-10/29
+/- 4.0%
600 likely voters
47.7
45
6.3
+2.7
+5.61
North Carolina
10/27-10/29
+/- 3.8%
682 likely voters
45
50
3
+5
+1.59
North Dakota
10/26-10/28
+/- 4.0%
625 likely voters
40
54
3
+14
+16.04
Ohio
10/23-10/25
+/- 4.0%
600 likely voters
49
44
7
+5
+2.91
Ohio
10/26-10/29
+/- 4.1%
603 likely voters
48
45
6
+3
--
Ohio
10/27-10/29
+/- 3.5%
825 likely voters
46.8
43.6
4.4
+3.2
--
Ohio
10/26-10/29
+/- 4.4%
500 likely voters
48
45
--
+3
--
Oregon
10/25-10/28
+/- 5.0%
405 likely voters
47
41
9
+6
+6.23
Texas
10/15-10/21
+/- 4.22%
540 likely voters
39
55
6
+16
+14.93
Virginia
10/27-10/29
+/- 3.5%
829 likely voters
45.3
47.4
4.7
+2.1
+2.04

[NOTE: In an effort to catch up FHQ will dispense with the state by state observations and provide some short, overall impressions.]

The picture did not change all that much either nationally -- through the electoral college -- or on the state level with the addition of today's polls. The margins may have been a little higher than the bulk of recent polling in North Carolina or lower in Michigan (both good for Romney), but things held steady overall. Strategically, in the two largest toss up state electoral college chips (Florida and Ohio), there multiple new polls and all of the news on that front was good for the president. Obama led or was tied in all seven of those surveys.

But again, there was little change in the grand scheme of things.


The map (changes since 10/29): No change. Obama: 332, Romney: 206.

The Electoral College Spectrum (changes since 10/29):
Massachusetts: traded places with Illinois
North Dakota: jumped up a couple of spots toward the partisan line
Texas: flipped positions with West Virginia

We're really only talking about some shuffling among a handful of strong states. There was no movement among the toss up states. That said, it is noteworthy that Ohio and Iowa are now nearly in the same position. Those tier two states -- New Hampshire, Ohio and Iowa -- are now nearly interchangeable in the order.

The Electoral College Spectrum1
VT-3
(6)2
WA-12
(158)
NH-4
(257)
GA-16
(167)
MS-6
(58)
HI-4
(10)
NJ-14
(172)
OH-183
(275/281)
SD-3
(151)
KY-8
(52)
NY-29
(39)
CT-7
(179)
IA-6
(281/263)
IN-11
(148)
AL-9
(44)
RI-4
(43)
NM-5
(184)
VA-13
(294/257)
SC-9
(137)
KS-6
(35)
MD-10
(53)
MN-10
(194)
CO-9
(303/244)
TN-11
(128)
AR-6
(29)
MA-11
(64)
OR-7
(201)
FL-29
(332/235)
NE-5
(117)
AK-3
(23)
IL-20
(84)
PA-20
(221)
NC-15
(206)
WV-5
(112)
OK-7
(20)
CA-55
(139)
MI-16
(237)
AZ-11
(191)
TX-38
(107)
ID-4
(13)
DE-3
(142)
WI-10
(247)
MO-10
(180)
ND-3
(69)
WY-3
(9)
ME-4
(146)
NV-6
(253)
MT-3
(170)
LA-8
(66)
UT-6
(6)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.

2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Romney won all the states up to and including Ohio (all Obama's toss up states plus Ohio), he would have 281 electoral votes. Romney's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and Romney's is on the right in italics.

3 Ohio is the state where Obama crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line.

The Watch List (changes since 10/29): No change. Only Florida and Georgia had new data and both maintained their status quo positions.

The Watch List1
State
Switch
Florida
from Toss Up Obama
to Toss Up Romney
Georgia
from Strong Romney
to Lean Romney
Montana
from Strong Romney
to Lean Romney
Nevada
from Toss Up Obama
to Lean Obama
New Hampshire
from Toss Up Obama
to Lean Obama
Wisconsin
from Lean Obama
to Toss Up Obama
1 The Watch list shows those states in the FHQ Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories. The List is not a trend analysis. It indicates which states are straddling the line between categories and which states are most likely to shift given the introduction of new polling data. Montana, for example, is close to being a Lean Romney state, but the trajectory of the polling there has been moving the state away from that lean distinction.

Please see:
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Monday, October 29, 2012

The Electoral College Map (10/29/12)

For the next to last Monday before election day, the number of polls released was rather pedestrian. There were just 11 new surveys from eight states, and none of them did a whole lot to budge either the metrics/figures here at FHQ or the overall state of the race. Things have seemingly settled in as the race prepares to enter its last week (...but not without an external shock from Mother Nature that could have some form of impact on a very close national contest).

New State Polls (10/29/12)
State
Poll
Date
Margin of Error
Sample
Obama
Romney
Undecided
Poll Margin
FHQ Margin
Colorado
10/25-10/28
+/- 4.0%
600 likely voters
47
48
4
+1
+1.60
Florida
10/25-10/28
+/- 3.5%
770 likely voters
49
50
1
+1
+0.32
Florida
10/26-10/28
+/- 3.5%
825 likely voters
46.2
47.5
3.7
+1.3
--
Maryland
10/20-10/23
+/- 3.5%
801 likely voters
55
36
8
+19
+21.16
Massachusetts
10/24-10/28
+/- 4.1%
583 likely voters
52
38
--
+14
+19.55
Nevada
10/27-10/28
+/- 4.4%
500 likely voters
49
43
--
+6
+3.99
New Hampshire
10/24-10/28
+/- 5.0%
400 likely voters
47
42
7
+5
+3.24
North Carolina
10/21-10/26
+/- 2.79%
1238 likely voters
45
45
9
0
+1.49
Ohio
10/26-10/28
+/- 3.5%
826 likely voters
48.2
44.0
3.2
+4.2
+2.89
Ohio
10/28
+/- 4.0%
750 likely voters
48
50
1
+2
--
Virginia
10/26-10/28
+/- 3.5%
800 likely voters
48.1
46.0
3.5
+2.1
+2.12

Polling Quick Hits:
Colorado:
Obama is up one and Romney's down a couple of points since the last ARG poll of the Centennial state immediately following the Denver debate. On the one hand, that's some slight narrowing, but on the other, that is hardly a significant shift (one within the margin of error anyway). Colorado is going to be one of those states that we'll be up late watching on election night.

Florida:
Florida will be one of those states, too. There was some movement toward Romney in the Zogby poll since the last rolling tracking poll conducted a couple of weeks ago, but the CNN surveys have shown a consistent one point lead for Romney. Again, there isn't much of a story here. Florida is as close to a tie as any state on the board here at FHQ.

Maryland:
Things are mostly static in the Old Line state as well. The Baltimore Sun last commissioned a poll from Opinion Works in late September and in that time Obama has lost two points that Romney has picked up. But that's a drop in the bucket in deep blue Maryland.

Massachusetts:
Well, the Globe/UNH poll seems to indicate a nearly halving of the president's lead in the Bay state relative to the poll the paper had conducted last month. While that appears significant, it brings the numbers more in line with where the rest of the polling has been in the state recently. Obama share of support is a little under where it is in the FHQ averages and Romney's share is even less overstated. Both are within the margin of error in the poll. Nothing to see here.

Nevada:
My first thought when I saw this poll was that it was going to force me to redo the map to reshade Nevada Lean Obama blue. It did have the effect of increasing the president's advantage in the Silver state, but it kept the margin under the four point threshold. This poll seems like a bit of a best case scenario of Obama. It hits the president's FHQ average share of support while understating Romney's share by a couple of points. This poll is hardly different from the poll Grove had out in the field earlier in the month.

New Hampshire:
If the Grove poll above was a best case scenario for Obama in Nevada, the same is probably true for the Lake Research survey in New Hampshire. Romney trails but this is the only poll other than the Obama +9 UNH poll from last week to show the former Massachusetts governor down by more than three points. Most of the gap in this poll is attributable to the three point drop Romney felt compared to the last Lake poll. That is an understatement of where he has been in most of the post-Denver polling in the Granite state.

North Carolina:
Another day and another tied or one point North Carolina poll. This one from Elon University. Say what you will about North Carolina's position in this race, much less the electoral college calculus, but it has never quite disappeared from the landscape altogether. FHQ has been of the opinion that Romney would win here in the Tarheel state all along, but that notion has been tested at various points in the race. If you want a state to watch on election night, watch North Carolina. Don't watch it to see if one candidate or the other wins it. Pay close attention to how quickly the state is called. If it is called early for Romney, then we may have some early evidence that the governor may be able to make a push in some of the other -- at least here -- Toss Up Obama states. If, however, North Carolina drags on with no call throughout much of the night, then the opposite may be true. That won't necessarily mean that Obama will win the state, rather that he would in that drawn-out North Carolina call be doing well in other toss up states. That'll be a better indicator than waiting on these next two states' results to come in. [Both Ohio and Virginia should be expected to be close and take a while to determine on election night.]

Ohio:
At Romney +2, the Rasmussen poll in Ohio gives the governor just his fourth lead in the polls of the Buckeye state since the first debate. On top of that, it is the biggest lead as well. Surprisingly or not, the Zogby poll actually is quite a bit closer to the FHQ weighted average shares of support both candidates enjoy. I don't know whether that's a good thing or not. ...but it is a fact. Ohio is in the same boat but to a lesser extent than Florida and Colorado. All are close and will take a while on Tuesday.

Virginia:
Again, as was the case with the Ohio Zogby poll, this one in Virginia nails it as well. The 2.1 advantage the president holds exactly matches the spread FHQ is showing at the moment. Again, take that with whatever measurement of salt -- perhaps more than a grain -- that you would like. This poll does look a lot like the average of three day tracking poll from earlier in the month.


The map, tally and Electoral College Spectrum remain unaltered today as compared to yesterday. None of the newly added polls did much to fundamentally change a close race that seems to have hunkered down for the final days of the battle. Obama continues to maintain consistent albeit rather tenuous leads across most of the toss up states. That they are persistent leads is something for the Obama campaign to hang its hat on, but these are still toss up states at the end of the day and there is still an opening for the Romney campaign. It would require a pretty good shift relative to the baselines set by the polling averages, but it isn't an unheard of movement; particularly in a close race.

The Electoral College Spectrum1
VT-3
(6)2
WA-12
(158)
NH-4
(257)
GA-16
(167)
ND-3
(55)
HI-4
(10)
NJ-14
(172)
OH-183
(275/281)
SD-3
(151)
KY-8
(52)
NY-29
(39)
CT-7
(179)
IA-6
(281/263)
IN-11
(148)
AL-9
(44)
RI-4
(43)
NM-5
(184)
VA-13
(294/257)
SC-9
(137)
KS-6
(35)
MD-10
(53)
MN-10
(194)
CO-9
(303/244)
TN-11
(128)
AR-6
(29)
IL-20
(73)
OR-7
(201)
FL-29
(332/235)
NE-5
(117)
AK-3
(23)
MA-11
(84)
PA-20
(221)
NC-15
(206)
TX-38
(112)
OK-7
(20)
CA-55
(139)
MI-16
(237)
AZ-11
(191)
WV-5
(74)
ID-4
(13)
DE-3
(142)
WI-10
(247)
MO-10
(180)
LA-8
(69)
WY-3
(9)
ME-4
(146)
NV-6
(253)
MT-3
(170)
MS-6
(61)
UT-6
(6)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.

2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Romney won all the states up to and including Ohio (all Obama's toss up states plus Ohio), he would have 281 electoral votes. Romney's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and Romney's is on the right in italics.

3 Ohio is the state where Obama crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line.

The Watch List was whittled down to just six states yesterday, and that is unchanged today. Two on the list can be discarded immediately, and the rest aren't exactly shockers. We should be looking for new polls from Florida, Nevada, New Hampshire, Wisconsin and all the other toss up or near toss up states, but we probably shouldn't expect too much to change within the averages over the next week.

The Watch List1
State
Switch
Florida
from Toss Up Obama
to Toss Up Romney
Georgia
from Strong Romney
to Lean Romney
Montana
from Strong Romney
to Lean Romney
Nevada
from Toss Up Obama
to Lean Obama
New Hampshire
from Toss Up Obama
to Lean Obama
Wisconsin
from Lean Obama
to Toss Up Obama
1 The Watch list shows those states in the FHQ Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories. The List is not a trend analysis. It indicates which states are straddling the line between categories and which states are most likely to shift given the introduction of new polling data. Montana, for example, is close to being a Lean Romney state, but the trajectory of the polling there has been moving the state away from that lean distinction.

Please see:
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Sunday, October 28, 2012

The Electoral College Map (10/28/12)

There was a lot of light blue in the polls released Sunday. That meant both that there were a number of polls fresh out of the field in Toss Up Obama states, but also that there was at least one instance of a tighter than "normal" margin in one state -- Minnesota -- that had to this point been camped out in the upper reaches of the Lean Obama category. In all, there were nine new surveys from six states.

New State Polls (10/28/12)
State
Poll
Date
Margin of Error
Sample
Obama
Romney
Undecided
Poll Margin
FHQ Margin
Florida
10/26-10/28
+/- 3.7%
687 likely voters
49
48
3
+1
+0.37
Minnesota
10/23-10/25
+/- 3.5%
800 likely voters
47
44
7
+3
+7.87
New Hampshire
10/24-10/25
+/- 4.4%
500 likely voters
47
44
7
+3
+3.17
New Hampshire
10/26-10/28
+/- 3.3%
874 likely voters
49
47
5
+2
--
Ohio
10/18-10/23
+/- 3.1%
1015 likely voters
49
49
1
0
+2.95
Ohio
10/27
+/- 3.6%
730 likely voters
50
49
2
+1
--
Ohio
10/26-10/28
+/- 3.7%
718 likely voters
51
47
2
+4
--
Tennessee
10/16-10/21
+/- 4.0%
609 likely voters
34
59
6
+25
+12.53
Virginia
10/25-10/27
+/- -.-%
807 likely voters
49
46
--
+3
+2.12

Polling Quick Hits:
Florida:
One could certainly quibble with this assertion, but a Romney +1 to an Obama +1 in Florida from PPP is not all that noteworthy. Sure, there was some "movement" toward Obama, but this is a within the margin of error sort of move in the Sunshine state. Stated differently, not much has changed in Florida. It's still close.

Minnesota:
A state that has not been close in the polls, but is in this one instance is Minnesota. The eight point Obama lead Mason-Dixon found in mid-September is now down to three points. It is the first non-partisan poll showing the gap any narrower than six points all year. That is a new development, to be sure, and is in line to some extent with some of the polling in other Lean Obama states, but it is more of an outlier absent other similar data. Flag this one and let's wait -- hopefully not too long -- for some more information from some other firms. 

New Hampshire:
The FHQ weighted average polling margin in the Granite state continues to inch down toward parity between the two candidates. While that is the case, it is also true that the president maintains a small and persistent lead. I'll gloss over the perpetually +3 Grove survey (The margin is seemingly Obama +3 most everywhere.), but the PPP survey represents, as was the case with Florida above, a slight shift toward the president. And while I minimized that shift above (and do here as well), looking for similar shifts across all firms is something to watch out for. If it happens in only PPP polls then that is one thing, but if it is happening elsewhere, then that means something else altogether.

Ohio:
There were three new surveys out of Ohio today and they once again, like a number of multi-Ohio poll days recently, spanned the range of typical results. In this case, from tied to Obama +4. That pretty well encapsulated the post-Denver polling in the Buckeye state: bouncing around within that range, but usually in that range. That translates into about Obama +2 and that is the range that the FHQ weighted average margin now sits at for the state.

Tennessee:
Changes (October 28)
StateBeforeAfter
TennesseeLean RomneyStrong Romney
FHQ hesitates to call this MTSU poll an outlier, but given the surprisingly narrow margin in the scant number of polls conducted this year in the Volunteer state, that seems right. However, Tennessee was McCain +15 on election day in 2008 and "should" have swung back more toward the Republicans heading into 2012 like most other states have. It hasn't, but this poll helps bring the FHQ average closer to that mark, shifting Tennessee into the Strong Romney category.

Virginia:
Days with only one (or no) Virginia polls feel very rare indeed at this point in the race. That has been particularly true over the last couple of weeks as the polls have been a tit-for-tat trade-off between the candidates in the Old Dominion. As for this poll from Garin et al., well, it shows the same three point lead for the president that the firm indicated in June with both candidates gaining three points. This poll fits in with the others that have come out since the first debate and is well within the Romney +3 to Obama +5 range the polls have exhibited since that time.


Tennessee's move to the Strong Romney category squeezes the Lean Romney category down to just a couple of states. That distinction really is of little value right now. Even if we assumed that the polls (and averages) across the board were five points "too Romney" right now and adjusted them accordingly, those Lean Romney states would only barely be in play. More than anything, that highlights North Carolina's position as the lone toss up state favoring the former Massachusetts governor and just how "settled" Romney's side of the partisan line is outside of the Tarheel state.

If we performed that same exercise in the opposite direction Michigan and Wisconsin would be a lot closer than they already are, and Pennsylvania and Oregon would not be very far behind. In other words, the Obama side of things, at least as the Lean Obama states are concerned, is not nearly as "settled" as Lean Romney states are on the opposite side of the partisan line.

This race is in the middle of those two extremes right now, but where in the middle is the operative question.

The map finds Tennessee now shaded in the dark Strong red and likewise the Spectrum shows the Volunteer state seven spots deeper in the order on the Romney side of the ledger. Other than that, things stayed the same on both figures.

The Electoral College Spectrum1
VT-3
(6)2
WA-12
(158)
NH-4
(257)
GA-16
(167)
ND-3
(55)
HI-4
(10)
NJ-14
(172)
OH-183
(275/281)
SD-3
(151)
KY-8
(52)
NY-29
(39)
CT-7
(179)
IA-6
(281/263)
IN-11
(148)
AL-9
(44)
RI-4
(43)
NM-5
(184)
VA-13
(294/257)
SC-9
(137)
KS-6
(35)
MD-10
(53)
MN-10
(194)
CO-9
(303/244)
TN-11
(128)
AR-6
(29)
IL-20
(73)
OR-7
(201)
FL-29
(332/235)
NE-5
(117)
AK-3
(23)
MA-11
(84)
PA-20
(221)
NC-15
(206)
TX-38
(112)
OK-7
(20)
CA-55
(139)
MI-16
(237)
AZ-11
(191)
WV-5
(74)
ID-4
(13)
DE-3
(142)
WI-10
(247)
MO-10
(180)
LA-8
(69)
WY-3
(9)
ME-4
(146)
NV-6
(253)
MT-3
(170)
MS-6
(61)
UT-6
(6)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.

2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Romney won all the states up to and including Ohio (all Obama's toss up states plus Ohio), he would have 281 electoral votes. Romney's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and Romney's is on the right in italics.

3 Ohio is the state where Obama crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line.

The same was not true on the Watch List. Consequentially, Ohio drops off the list. The Buckeye state is no longer within a fraction of a point of moving back into the Lean Obama category. As of now, it is well within the Toss Up range. The same is true of Minnesota, but now it is firmly within the Lean category.

The Watch List1
State
Switch
Florida
from Toss Up Obama
to Toss Up Romney
Georgia
from Strong Romney
to Lean Romney
Montana
from Strong Romney
to Lean Romney
Nevada
from Toss Up Obama
to Lean Obama
New Hampshire
from Toss Up Obama
to Lean Obama
Wisconsin
from Lean Obama
to Toss Up Obama
1 The Watch list shows those states in the FHQ Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories. The List is not a trend analysis. It indicates which states are straddling the line between categories and which states are most likely to shift given the introduction of new polling data. Montana, for example, is close to being a Lean Romney state, but the trajectory of the polling there has been moving the state away from that lean distinction.

Please see:
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