The Electoral College Map (10/26/12)

There were 17 more polls from 12 states released on Friday to close out the work week. Now the race heads into the next to last weekend before election day with an only slightly refined outlook here at FHQ. Three pollsters had multiple surveys released across a series of states and two of the three were internally consistent in terms of the established -- here at FHQ anyway -- order of states.

The series of Purple Strategies polls indicated quite a tight-knit jumble from Ohio at Obama +2 to a tie in Virginia (with Colorado at Obama +1). FHQ has been saying for a while now that Colorado and Virginia were close to tied in the post-Denver polling, so that those two are flip-flopped compared to the FHQ order is a minor difference.

The order is right on in the Rasmussen polling with Wisconsin tied on the left (Obama) end of the distribution and Arizona off to the right end. Both the Florida poll and the Arizona poll were consistent with the FHQ weighted average margin, but the tie in Wisconsin was a bit further off.

Gravis Marketing's polls were a little bit harder to swallow. Given the information we have to this point it is difficult to see Iowa (Obama +4) and North Carolina (Romney +8) being as far apart as they are in terms of absolute distance. Nevada being closer than Iowa is also noteworthy but not necessarily out of the ordinary. However, the North Carolina result seems to off the mark (though in line with the firm's previous poll in the state) compared to other recent polling outside of the last couple of Rasmussen polls there.

New State Polls (10/26/12)
State	Poll	Date	Margin of Error	Sample	Obama	Romney	Undecided	Poll Margin	FHQ Margin
Arizona	Rasmussen	10/21	+/- 4.5%	500 likely voters	44	52	2	+8	+6.69
Colorado	Purple Strategies	10/23-10/25	+/- 4.0%	600 likely voters	47	46	5	+1	+1.68
Florida	Sunshine State News	10/22-10/24	+/- 3.1%	1001 likely voters	46	51	2	+5	+0.36
Florida	Rasmussen	10/25	+/- 4.0%	750 likely voters	48	50	1	+2	--
Iowa	Gravis Marketing	10/24	+/- 4.3%	517 likely voters	50	46	4	+4	+2.70
Nevada	Gravis Marketing	10/24	+/- 3.2%	955 likely voters	50	49	2	+1	+3.92
New Hampshire	New England College	10/23-10/25	+/- 4.1%	571 likely voters	49	46	4	+3	+3.23
New York	Siena	10/22-10/24	+/- 3.6%	750 likely voters	59	35	6	+24	+24.82
North Carolina	Civitas/National Research	10/20-10/21	+/- 4.0%	600 likely voters	47	48	5	+1	+1.54
North Carolina	Gravis Marketing	10/24	+/- 2.4%	1723 likely voters	45	53	2	+8	--
Ohio	American Research Group	10/23-10/25	+/- 4.0%	600 likely voters	49	47	3	+2	+3.02
Ohio	CNN	10/23-10/25	+/- 3.5%	741 likely voters	50	46	4	+4	--
Ohio	Purple Strategies	10/23-10/25	+/- 4.0%	600 likely voters	46	44	8	+2	--
Oklahoma	Sooner Poll	10/18-10/24	+/- 5.61%	305 likely voters	32.7	58.6	8.6	+25.9	+28.78
Virginia	JZ Analytics	10/23-10/25	+/- 3.5%	834 likely voters	48.0	47.5	4.5	+0.5	+2.11
Virginia	Purple Strategies	10/23-10/25	+/- 4.0%	600 likely voters	47	47	7	0	--
Wisconsin	Rasmussen	10/25	+/- 4.5%	500 likely voters	49	49	2	0	+4.56

Polling Quick Hits:
Arizona:
Rasmussen was in the field in the Grand Canyon state a month ago and things have barely changed. The president has ticked up a couple of points and Romney has held steady in a state that has been rather firmly lodged in the Lean Romney category all cycle. ...despite talk of Arizona being a swing state during 2011.

Colorado:
Back in September, Purple Strategies showed Obama up by three. That lead is now down to one point based on a zero-sum exchange of a point between Romney and the president. I'm not going to say that either FHQ or Purple Strategies is correct, but this poll is a mirror image of the weighted average shares for both candidates. Colorado is close but just ever so slightly tips toward Obama right now. But let's not overstate that advantage. Down-the-stretch volatility could easily push Colorado toward Romney on election day.

Florida:
The polling was quite favorable to Governor Romney in Florida today. The Sunshine State News poll -- at Romney +5 -- is perhaps outside of where most of the polling has been in the state following the first debate. However, the poll is more a bookend on the range of polls there than an outlier. Florida continues to stubbornly stick in the Toss Up Obama category, but as is the case with Colorado above, to call the state anything other than a tie (that may be slightly more favorable to Romney than the averages here indicate) is pushing the envelope.

Iowa:
The Gravis poll of Iowa seems fine on its surface. It is the firm's first poll in the Hawkeye state and is within range of the FHQ averages (both margin and individual candidate shares of support). Yet, Gravis now joins Marist and YouGov as the only firms since the first debate to show the race in Iowa outside of one or two points in either direction.

Nevada:

Changes (October 26)
State	Before	After
Nevada	Lean Obama	Toss Up Obama

Unlike in Iowa, where it nailed the Romney share of support relative to the FHQ weighted average, the Gravis survey of Nevada, was right on the Obama share of support -- right at 50% -- and was further off on the Romney share of support. Again, as we described yesterday, Nevada seems to be in a position where the president is hovering above that threshold and Romney is in need of not only catching up but of bringing Obama down some. The catching up seems to be happening, but the bringing down does not. Both candidates, for instance, gained a point each since the last Gravis poll in the Silver state.

That said, Nevada did ease over into the Toss Up Obama category after clinging to the line on the opposite end of the line between the Lean and Toss Up categories.

New Hampshire:
+/-3 seems like the range in the Granite state at the moment. Sure, there are some polls with margins beyond that range, but they are the exceptions post-Denver. This New England College poll meets that criterion. The leads since the first debate have split evenly between the two candidates and the median poll margin value is zero. It is tight in New Hampshire and the averages here at FHQ are playing catch up.

New York:
New York, New York. It is still blue and the Siena poll is hovering right around the weighted average margin FHQ finds in the Empire state.

North Carolina:
As was mentioned at the outset of this post, the Gravis poll is a bit of an outlier compared to most over polls in the Tarheel state of late. That said, the poll is in line with the firm's previous post-Denver poll. Most polls, however, show a much closer race, but one that continues to favor the former Massachusetts governor. Again, North Carolina is the one toss up state that has been tipped toward Romney all along, and there really is little evidence to the contrary in the polls that continue to come out  of the state.

Ohio:
The one factor that is seemingly relevant in the Buckeye state is that the president's leads have contracted some, but continue to be in his direction. Romney simply has not been able to get over the hump in Ohio and that is true across the three polls in the table above. It is a modest advantage, mind you, but it is a persistent lead for the president.

Oklahoma:
Is there really all that much to say about another poll showing Romney crushing the president in the Sooner state? No, not really. Oklahoma is very comfortably red -- one of the few states that did not swing toward the Democrats and Obama in 2008.

Virginia:
Instead of trading leads in the surveys released from Virginia today, the two candidates settled on ties in the two newly added polls. As FHQ has mentioned, that has had the effect of bringing the average down, but very gradually. Both polls indicate a steady share for Obama and show a slight growth for Romney since the last polls conducted in the state.

Wisconsin:
In the Badger state, Rasmussen polling has stayed very close between the two candidates and lingers in the 49-49 area poll after poll. That differs slightly from the 3-4 point leads most other firms have fairly consistently found in Wisconsin in the time since the first debate. The clearest indication about the feelings in the campaigns about the Badger state is how much spending is taking place there and how many visits are being made there compared to other toss up states. Other than that, Obama is at or above 50% in a great many Wisconsin polls; putting the state in the same boat with Nevada.

There was very little change on the map or below on the Spectrum. Consequentially, Nevada slips over into the Toss Up Obama category, but only jus barely. Still, a toss up is a toss up, and Nevada has closed enough now that it is and should be considered as such. At the same time, the leads for Obama there have been consistent and modest. From the Romney perspective, that is attainable, but difficult in the waning days of the campaign.

The Electoral College Spectrum1
VT-3 (6)2	WA-12 (158)	NH-4 (257)	MT-3 (159)	ND-3 (55)
HI-4 (10)	NJ-14 (172)	OH-183 (275/281)	GA-16 (156)	KY-8 (52)
RI-4 (14)	CT-7 (179)	IA-6 (281/263)	SD-3 (140)	AL-9 (44)
NY-29 (43)	NM-5 (184)	VA-13 (294/257)	IN-11 (137)	KS-6 (35)
MD-10 (53)	MN-10 (194)	CO-9 (303/244)	SC-9 (126)	AR-6 (29)
IL-20 (73)	OR-7 (201)	FL-29 (332/235)	NE-5 (117)	AK-3 (23)
MA-11 (84)	PA-20 (221)	NC-15 (206)	TX-38 (112)	OK-7 (20)
CA-55 (139)	MI-16 (237)	AZ-11 (191)	WV-5 (74)	ID-4 (13)
DE-3 (142)	WI-10 (247)	MO-10 (180)	LA-8 (69)	WY-3 (9)
ME-4 (146)	NV-6 (253)	TN-11 (170)	MS-6 (61)	UT-6 (6)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. 2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Romney won all the states up to and including Ohio (all Obama's toss up states plus Ohio), he would have 281 electoral votes. Romney's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and Romney's is on the right in italics. 3 Ohio is the state where Obama crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line.

Shifting to the Watch List, there was again very little change. Nevada moved from one end of the Lean/Toss Up line to the other, but the take home is that it is positioned more closely to that line than the partisan line separating both candidates' shares of states.

The Watch List1
State	Switch
Florida	from Toss Up Obama	to Toss Up Romney
Georgia	from Strong Romney	to Lean Romney
Minnesota	from Lean Obama	to Strong Obama
Montana	from Strong Romney	to Lean Romney
Nevada	from Toss Up Obama	to Lean Obama
New Hampshire	from Toss Up Obama	to Lean Obama
Ohio	from Toss Up Obama	to Lean Obama
Wisconsin	from Lean Obama	to Toss Up Obama
1 The Watch list shows those states in the FHQ Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories. The List is not a trend analysis. It indicates which states are straddling the line between categories and which states are most likely to shift given the introduction of new polling data. Montana, for example, is close to being a Lean Romney state, but the trajectory of the polling there has been moving the state away from that lean distinction.

Please see:

Frequently Asked Questions about FHQ graduated weighted average methodology.
&
An Update on how to read it in 2012.

Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (10/25/12)

The Electoral College Map (10/24/12)

The Electoral College Map (10/23/12)

Are you following FHQ on Twitter, Google+ and Facebook? Click on the links to join in.

The Electoral College Map (10/25/12)

Thursday brought 17 new surveys from 10 states. The overall picture was virtually unchanged and that appears to be a function of the fact that polling firms conducting polls across several states were internally consistent. In other words, the numbers may have differed across firms, but intra-firm surveys all had the states falling in the same general order that has been established here at FHQ. So Rasmussen and PPP may have a different view of the state of play in, say, Virginia, but among Rasmussen surveys,  for example, Virginia was closer to Mitt Romney than Pennsylvania. That is consistent with the order in the Electoral College Spectrum below.

New State Polls (10/25/12)
State	Poll	Date	Margin of Error	Sample	Obama	Romney	Undecided	Poll Margin	FHQ Margin
California	Public Policy Institute of California	10/14-10/21	+/- 3.2%	993 likely voters	53	41	4	+12	+18.04
Colorado	Grove Insight	10/23-10/24	+/- 4.4%	500 likely voters	46	43	8	+3	+1.70
Colorado	Onsight/Keating Research	10/23-10/24	+/- 4.4%	502 likely voters	48	45	--	+3	--
Colorado	Marist/Wall Street Journal/NBC	10/23-10/24	+/- 2.9%	1128 likely voters	48	48	2	0	--
Colorado	Public Policy Polling	10/23-10/25	+/- 3.3%	904 likely voters	51	47	2	+4	--
Connecticut	Mason-Dixon	10/15-10/17	+/- 4.0%	625 likely voters	49	42	--	+7	+11.56
Florida	Grove Insight	10/23-10/24	+/- 4.0%	600 likely voters	47	45	7	+2	+0.50
Florida	Gravis Marketing	10/24	+/- 2.8%	1182 likely voters	49	50	2	+1	--
Iowa	Public Policy Polling	10/23-10/24	+/- 3.7%	690 likely voters	49	47	4	+2	+2.64
Nevada	Marist/Wall Street Journal/NBC	10/23-10/24	+/- 3.0%	1042 likely voters	50	47	2	+3	+4.03
North Carolina	Public Policy Polling	10/23-10/25	+/- 3.3%	880 likely voters	48	48	4	0	+1.35
Pennsylvania	Rasmussen	10/24	+/- 4.5%	500 likely voters	51	46	2	+5	+6.17
Virginia	JZ Analytics	10/22-10/24	+/- 3.5%	832 likely voters	49	47	--	+2	+2.14
Virginia	FOX	10/23-10/24	+/- 3.0%	1126 likely voters	44	46	7	+2	--
Virginia	Public Policy Polling	10/23-10/24	+/- 3.6%	722 likely voters	51	46	3	+5	--
Virginia	Rasmussen	10/24	+/- 4.0%	750 likely voters	48	50	1	+2	--
Wisconsin	Public Policy Polling	10/23-10/24	+/- 3.4%	827 likely voters	51	45	4	+6	+4.69

Polling Quick Hits:
California:
This new PPIC poll would be noteworthy except for the fact that the firm has consistently had the president up by a margin somewhere in low teens. This poll is certainly no different, though it does show a modest two point shift in Governor Romney's direction since the September survey. California is still blue.

Colorado:
Colorado, on the other hand, may not still be blue. But on this particular day, the polling was favorable for Obama. The margins ranged anywhere from tied to a four point edge for the president. Sure, three of those polls -- a couple of Obama +3s and an Obama +4 -- were all from Democratic-aligned pollsters, but the impact was minimal. Obama's advantage improved only marginally by about a tenth of a point. Colorado continues to tip toward the president, but by a very small margin.

Connecticut:
The latest Mason-Dixon poll in the Nutmeg state echoed the recent numbers from Rasmussen. And while both firms point toward a tightening race in Connecticut, that isn't something that has not been indicated somewhere along the line in the polling of the state this year, nor is it something that is indicative of a fundamental change -- one that would flip the state -- in the state of play in Connecticut. The Rasmussen polls have tended to hit the Obama share of support and overstate (relative to other polls) the Romney share of support. This Mason-Dixon survey -- their first in Connecticut this cycle that FHQ can see -- both understates Obama's share relative to the weighted average share and overstates Romney's. The margins are similar but the way of getting there is not. Connecticut is still blue, but that difference is worth noting.

Florida:
It is more surprising when we get a poll that is not one or two points toward one of the candidates (Romney more often than not following the Denver debate). These two polls -- both Gravis and Grove Insight -- fall right within that range. And the impact is minimal.

[NOTE: Since the effect of the decision is felt most here with Florida, I'll mention it here. These JZ Analytics polls from the Newsmax/Zogby collaboration are kind of tricky to deal with since they are short-window, rolling trackers. But there is overlap in the samples from day to day and including all of the data leads us down the road of counting some information twice. FHQ will, moving forward, replace these polls sequentially as they come along and leave the average of the three day tracking polls as the final piece of data from the firm. I don't know that this is a perfect way of dealing with the issue, but it is an adequate response that is not having much impact in the numbers. With the change, the average margin in Florida dropped by 0.04 points. Please note also, that JZ Analytics numbers are being phased in in Virginia below as well.]

Iowa:
Romney dropped a point in the PPP survey from the one a week ago by the firm. That brings Romney's share of support closer to being in line with the FHQ weighted average share for the governor and is consistent with the FHQ average share for Obama. The overall weighted average margin continues to slide downward. That is not necessarily based on any continued momentum toward Romney so much as it is the averages being hit with a slew of data indicating a closer race; one still favoring the president, but to a lesser extent now.

Nevada:
The thing in Nevada -- and this is reflected in the new poll from Marist -- is that Obama is hovering pretty consistently over the last week or two right at or even over the 50% mark. Has the margin closed? Yes, but only a little and Romney can't catch up if Obama is pulling in more than 50% of the vote in the Silver state. The governor can make it interesting by perhaps pulling the race into the margin of error, but not be able to turn the tables. Those are the two things to watch in Nevada over the next week.

North Carolina:
Just when you think Romney is starting to pull away in the Tarheel state along comes another poll showing the race there tied or only very slightly in Romney's direction. As FHQ has talked about numerous times, North Carolina is a state that the Obama campaign can see, but probably is not in range to reach. That and the fact that Obama would have to swim against the current to pick off a state that has been the one toss up state the governor could count on throughout is a good thing for Romney The best, then, that the Obama campaign can hope for is to make Romney work -- expend some resources -- to defend North Carolina (like what Romney could potentially do in Pennsylvania or Michigan to Obama).

Pennsylvania:
Other than the blip that was the Romney +4 from Susquehanna recently, the same basic rule applies to Pennsylvania as does to Ohio: if Romney has never/rarely led a poll there then it isn't likely going to happen. Again, other than that Susquehanna poll, Romney has not done any better than to get it within three points and that is only occasionally. The momentum from 2008 to 2012 is in Romney's/the Republicans' favor -- and we're talking long term patterns not intra-campaign shifts here -- but even having said that, Pennsylvania is to Romney roughly what North Carolina is to Obama. In other words, icing on the cake; something indicative of an electoral vote total already over 270. This new Rasmussen poll does little to alter that. Neither does the fact that the numbers didn't budge since the last Rasmusen poll of the Keystone state.

Virginia:
The mantra concerning Virginia around FHQ since the Denver debate has been that the candidates trade an even number of leads in the polls back and forth with each other. With four new polls today, that is again the case. Right down the middle, Romney has a couple of polls in his favor while Obama claims advantages in the other two. The average margin in the commonwealth continues to trickle down but only just barely. Very simply, Virginia seems tied right now and the polls have done little to change that.

Wisconsin:
Wisconsin is not all that different from Nevada. That should not come as a surprise since both have been camped out next to each other on the Electoral College Spectrum for quite a while now. And some of the same dynamics seem to be at work in Wisconsin as in Nevada. Outside of the recent Grove Insight poll that understated both Obama's and Romney's share of support in the Badger state, no poll has found the president under 48% since PPP found Romney ahead in the August period after Wisconsinite, Paul Ryan, was named to the Republican ticket. In fact, the weighted average finds Obama's share at 49.7%. That makes Wisconsin an uphill climb for Romney for the same reasons as Nevada. That is not to say that the former Massachusetts governor cannot win there, but that it would appear unlikely without some evidence that he is ahead and ahead consistently there.

Now, as for the impact these polls had on the map, tally or Spectrum, well, it wasn't much. Most of the averages inched closer, but as FHQ said in an earlier post, the question now is whether this is continued momentum toward Romney following the first debate or the typical narrowing we see in the polls as election day nears. The evidence seems point to the latter. Romney's surge has leveled off and what we seem to be witnessing now is a slow and incremental narrowing between the two candidates with little altered in terms of the overall outcome of the race. Several states have gotten more interesting, but none -- save for Florida mainly, but Colorado and Virginia to some extent as well -- have shown any indication of flipping to the other side.

...in this case, the Romney side of the partisan line.

The Electoral College Spectrum1
VT-3 (6)2	WA-12 (158)	NH-4 (257)	MT-3 (159)	ND-3 (55)
HI-4 (10)	NJ-14 (172)	OH-183 (275/281)	GA-16 (156)	KY-8 (52)
RI-4 (14)	CT-7 (179)	IA-6 (281/263)	SD-3 (140)	AL-9 (44)
NY-29 (43)	NM-5 (184)	VA-13 (294/257)	IN-11 (137)	KS-6 (35)
MD-10 (53)	MN-10 (194)	CO-9 (303/244)	SC-9 (126)	AR-6 (29)
IL-20 (73)	OR-7 (201)	FL-29 (332/235)	NE-5 (117)	AK-3 (23)
MA-11 (84)	PA-20 (221)	NC-15 (206)	TX-38 (112)	OK-7 (20)
CA-55 (139)	MI-16 (237)	AZ-11 (191)	WV-5 (74)	ID-4 (13)
DE-3 (142)	WI-10 (247)	MO-10 (180)	LA-8 (69)	WY-3 (9)
ME-4 (146)	NV-6 (253)	TN-11 (170)	MS-6 (61)	UT-6 (6)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. 2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Romney won all the states up to and including Ohio (all Obama's toss up states plus Ohio), he would have 281 electoral votes. Romney's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and Romney's is on the right in italics. 3 Ohio is the state where Obama crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line.

The map, electoral vote tally, Spectrum and yeah, add the Watch List to this as well, changed compared to yesterday.

The Watch List1
State	Switch
Florida	from Toss Up Obama	to Toss Up Romney
Georgia	from Strong Romney	to Lean Romney
Minnesota	from Lean Obama	to Strong Obama
Montana	from Strong Romney	to Lean Romney
Nevada	from Lean Obama	to Toss Up Obama
New Hampshire	from Toss Up Obama	to Lean Obama
Ohio	from Toss Up Obama	to Lean Obama
Wisconsin	from Lean Obama	to Toss Up Obama
1 The Watch list shows those states in the FHQ Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories. The List is not a trend analysis. It indicates which states are straddling the line between categories and which states are most likely to shift given the introduction of new polling data. Montana, for example, is close to being a Lean Romney state, but the trajectory of the polling there has been moving the state away from that lean distinction.

Please see:

Frequently Asked Questions about FHQ graduated weighted average methodology.
&
An Update on how to read it in 2012.

Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (10/24/12)

The Electoral College Map (10/23/12)

If Virginia is tied, Obama wins

Are you following FHQ on Twitter, Google+ and Facebook? Click on the links to join in.