Saturday, August 25, 2012

The Electoral College Map (8/25/12)

Saturday did bring some new polls, but FHQ added some late Friday leftovers as well. All told, there were four polls from three states added to the weighted averages.

New State Polls (8/25/12)
State
Poll
Date
Margin of Error
Sample
Obama
Romney
Undecided
Poll Margin
FHQ Margin
Massachusetts
8/21
+/- 4.0%
592 likely voters
52
41
7
+11
+17.05
Missouri
8/21-8/23
+/- 4.0%
625 likely voters
43
50
--
+7
+6.15
Missouri
8/23
+/- 3.4%
1057 likely voters
36.1
53.1
6.6
+17
--
Pennsylvania
8/21-8/23
+/- 4.0%
601 likely voters
51
42
7
+9
+6.74

Polling Quick Hits:
Massachusetts:
Rarely has Massachusetts tipped toward the Republican Party at the presidential level in the modern era. But with the former governor on the ticket perhaps that might change. Well, the Bay state will, barring something very unusual, remain blue in November. Yet, on occasion Mitt Romney closes the gap in polling to a rather small level. This Kimball poll is one of those times. President Obama does not often slide into the lower 50s in Massachusetts and beyond that, this poll represents Romney's high water mark this year. Close poll, not close state.

Missouri:
Changes (August 25)
StateBeforeAfter
MissouriToss Up RomneyLean Romney
Hey look! Missouri switched back to Lean Romney again. FHQ won't say much else other than it will be good to get through this post-Akin period in Missouri polling. The Republican senate candidate from Missouri has added some volatility to this one. [Of course, it should be noted that one poll had the margin between Obama and Romney down to one point prior to the Akin comments on rape/abortion.]

Pennsylvania:
Another day, another nine point lead for the president in oft-talked about, swingy Pennsylvania. With numbers like those in the poll sponsored by the Philadelphia Inquirer, it may be that the Keystone state is not all that swingy after all. Compared to the FHQ averages, Romney's share is just off while the Obama share in the poll is about four points above where the the averages have his share of poll respondents.


These polls over the next couple of days and into mid-week are going to be our last round of pre-convention surveys. The data is likely to shift after that point and with it the tally in our electoral college outlook; something that has held steady since FHQ began charting this in mid-July. States over that time span have traded categories but have not crossed the partisan line to the red or blue side of the ledger.

The Electoral College Spectrum below filters that same data a bit differently. And while there have been fluctuations on the chart, what has developed is a pretty clear rank order of states; particularly those in the middle column where the most data is available. Most of the toss up states lean toward Obama at this point, but that is subject to change.

The Electoral College Spectrum1
VT-3
(6)2
NJ-14
(160)
MI-16
(257)
AZ-11
(167)
MS-6
(55)
RI-4
(10)
WA-12
(172)
OH-183
(275/281)
GA-16
(156)
ND-3
(49)
HI-4
(14)
NM-5
(177)
CO-9
(284/263)
MT-3
(140)
AL-9
(46)
NY-29
(43)
MN-10
(187)
VA-13
(297/254)
WV-5
(137)
KY-8
(37)
MD-10
(53)
CT-7
(194)
IA-6
(303/241)
IN-11
(132)
KS-6
(29)
CA-55
(108)
OR-7
(201)
FL-29
(332/235)
SC-9
(121)
AK-3
(23)
IL-20
(128)
PA-20
(221)
NC-15
(206)
LA-8
(112)
OK-7
(20)
MA-11
(139)
NV-6
(227)
MO-10
(191)
NE-5
(104)
ID-4
(13)
DE-3
(142)
NH-4
(231)
TN-11
(181)
AR-6
(99)
WY-3
(9)
ME-4
(146)
WI-10
(241)
SD-3
(170)
TX-38
(93)
UT-6
(6)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.

2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Romney won all the states up to and including Ohio (all Obama's toss up states plus Ohio), he would have 272 electoral votes. Romney's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and Romney's is on the right in italics.

3 Ohio is the state where Obama crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line.

On the Watch List, Missouri is off based on the wide gap in the Gravis survey there. That Romney +17  has Missouri deeper into the Lean Romney category, but it is still the lean state with the smallest margin on that side of the partisan line.

The Watch List1
State
Switch
Connecticut
from Lean Obama
to Strong Obama
Florida
from Toss Up Obama
to Toss Up Romney
Michigan
from Toss Up Obama
to Lean Obama
Minnesota
from Strong Obama
to Lean Obama
Montana
from Strong Romney
to Lean Romney
Nevada
from Toss Up Obama
to Lean Obama
New Hampshire
from Toss Up Obama
to Lean Obama
North Carolina
from Toss Up Romney
to Toss Up Obama
West Virginia
from Strong Romney
to Lean Romney
Wisconsin
from Toss Up Obama
to Lean Obama
1 Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

Please see:


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Posted by Josh Putnam at 11:00 PM 0 comments
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Friday, August 24, 2012

The Electoral College Map (8/24/12)

Things slowed down on the state-level presidential trial heat polling front on Friday, but it was pretty active compared to the last few Fridays.

New State Polls (8/24/12)
State
Poll
Date
Margin of Error
Sample
Obama
Romney
Undecided
Poll Margin
FHQ Margin
Colorado
8/21-8/22
+/- 4.4%
500 likely voters
48
44
5
+4
+2.89
Missouri
8/22
+/- 4.5%
500 likely voters
47
46
3
+1
+4.79
Virginia
8/23
+/- 4.5%
500 likely voters
47
47
3
0
+2.61

Polling Quick Hits:
Colorado:
There is a pretty tight range of polls in Colorado. Throw out the most recent Q-poll (Romney +5) and you are left with polls that tip toward Obama by anywhere from one to five points. This poll fits that bill. It is right on the FHQ average for Romney's share of support and just slightly overestimates where Obama is according to us.

Missouri:
Changes (August 24)
StateBeforeAfter
MissouriLean RomneyToss Up Romney
I think I'm done commenting on Missouri for now. Every time FHQ mentions that Missouri is back in the lean category to stay, a new poll is released that pulls the weighted average under the 5% mark. The data certainly backs up the argument that Missouri has shifted toward the Republicans since 2008 and that shift is about five points, give or take. That said, this new Rasmussen poll feels like an outlier, but it is in line with two of the previous three polls in the Show Me state.

Virginia:
A simple question: Does anyone believe that if Missouri is, in fact, Obama +1 that Virginia is a tie? Fine, now flip that question. Those two states don't go together. Colorado and Virginia, perhaps, but not Virginia and Missouri. If Virginia is tied in November, then Missouri is a Romney state. Unlike the Colorado poll, Romney's share is overstated in this poll while Obama's is right on the FHQ weighted average of his share of respondents in Old Dominion polling.



I alluded to it above, but there is a certain order to these states in terms of the electoral college. We can begin to think of states in this way. For instance, a tie in Michigan means that Romney has won all of the states up to Michigan on the Electoral College Spectrum and with it the White House. Similarly, if, as the Spectrum now shows, Florida or North Carolina are ties, then Barack Obama has things wrapped up.

Now, mind you, it is early yet and things are going to change over the next few months, but this is one way that we can begin to use the Spectrum going forward. In other words, be on the lookout for polling mismatches particularly when they come from the same polling outfit.

--
Things were stationary on the map and in the Electoral College Spectrum following the introduction of new data today. Missouri slipped back into the Toss Up Romney category, but kept its spot on the Romney side of North Carolina. Beyond that, it was business as usual in Colorado and Virginia from where the other polls were released.

The Electoral College Spectrum1
VT-3
(6)2
NJ-14
(160)
MI-16
(257)
AZ-11
(167)
MS-6
(55)
RI-4
(10)
WA-12
(172)
OH-183
(275/281)
GA-16
(156)
ND-3
(49)
HI-4
(14)
NM-5
(177)
CO-9
(284/263)
MT-3
(140)
AL-9
(46)
NY-29
(43)
MN-10
(187)
VA-13
(297/254)
WV-5
(137)
KY-8
(37)
MD-10
(53)
CT-7
(194)
IA-6
(303/241)
IN-11
(132)
KS-6
(29)
CA-55
(108)
OR-7
(201)
FL-29
(332/235)
SC-9
(121)
AK-3
(23)
MA-11
(119)
PA-20
(221)
NC-15
(206)
LA-8
(112)
OK-7
(20)
IL-20
(139)
NV-6
(227)
MO-10
(191)
NE-5
(104)
ID-4
(13)
DE-3
(142)
NH-4
(231)
TN-11
(181)
AR-6
(99)
WY-3
(9)
ME-4
(146)
WI-10
(241)
SD-3
(170)
TX-38
(93)
UT-6
(6)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.

2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Romney won all the states up to and including Ohio (all Obama's toss up states plus Ohio), he would have 272 electoral votes. Romney's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and Romney's is on the right in italics.

3 Ohio is the state where Obama crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line.

The Watch List? Well, Missouri switched back to the way it was the day before yesterday: a Toss Up Romney state within a percentage point of jumping into the Lean Romney category.

The Watch List1
State
Switch
Connecticut
from Lean Obama
to Strong Obama
Florida
from Toss Up Obama
to Toss Up Romney
Michigan
from Toss Up Obama
to Lean Obama
Minnesota
from Strong Obama
to Lean Obama
Missouri
from Toss Up Romney
to Lean Romney
Montana
from Strong Romney
to Lean Romney
Nevada
from Toss Up Obama
to Lean Obama
New Hampshire
from Toss Up Obama
to Lean Obama
North Carolina
from Toss Up Romney
to Toss Up Obama
West Virginia
from Strong Romney
to Lean Romney
Wisconsin
from Toss Up Obama
to Lean Obama
1 Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

Please see:


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Posted by Josh Putnam at 4:30 PM 0 comments
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Thursday, August 23, 2012

The Electoral College Map (8/23/12)

Another day, another eight polls from seven different states. The new data brings some good news for both candidates and creates a couple of minor changes in the FHQ outlook.

New State Polls (8/23/12)
State
Poll
Date
Margin of Error
Sample
Obama
Romney
Undecided
Poll Margin
FHQ Margin
Connecticut
8/21
+/- 4.5%
500 likely voters
51
43
3
+8
+9.84
Florida
8/15-8/21
+/- 2.8%
1241 likely voters
49
46
5
+3
+0.26
Michigan
8/18-8/20
+/- 4.0%
600 likely voters
47.5
42
10.5
+5.5
+4.60
Missouri
8/20
+/- 4.4%
500 likely voters
42
52
7
+10
+5.55
Ohio
8/16-8/21
+/- 3.4%
808 likely voters
49
46
2
+3
+3.53
Ohio
8/15-8/21
+/- 2.8%
1253 likely voters
50
44
4
+6
--
Pennsylvania
8/20-8/22
+/- 5.0%
422 likely voters
49
40
--
+9
+6.58
Wisconsin
8/15-8/21
+/- 2.8%
1190 likely voters
49
47
3
+2
+4.73

Polling Quick Hits:
Connecticut:
There has not been a lot of polling in the Nutmeg state, but what data has been released has shown a surprisingly "close" race. Connecticut has tightened more relative to 2008 than most other states. There seems to be a mid- to upper single digit swing back to the Republicans in 2012 compared to 2008, but Connecticut has lurched back a bit further than that. It was a state Obama won by over 20 points and now leads by just under 10 in the FHQ weighted averages.

Florida:
The new Q-poll of Florida continues to show the president ahead in the Sunshine state (versus a Q-poll earlier this month), but that is somewhat at odds with other recent, post-Ryan polling there. The survey is not an outlier as it fits within the pre-existing range established by the data we have available. Florida is a toss up and will likely continue to be for either candidate heading down the stretch.

Michigan:
While there has been some variation in the polling coming out of Michigan, the confluence of information out there has consistently shown President Obama ahead in the five point range. Some polls have occasionally had Governor Romney in the lead, but this one continues to be a state that hovers around the Lean/Toss Up Obama line.

Changes (August 23)
StateBeforeAfter
ConnecticutLean ObamaStrong Obama
MissouriToss Up RomneyLean Romney
Missouri:
This Akin insta-poll sample of Missouri from PPP may be a bit wider than the last two polls (a couple of +1 margins for Romney), but it pushes the Show Me state back into the Lean Romney category here at FHQ. And given the aforementioned swing in 2012 relative to 2008, that is likely where nearly-tied-in-2008 Missouri would be expected to be.

Ohio:
If Connecticut is a surprise in its larger change in 2012 compared to 2008 relative to other states, Ohio should be cited for the opposite. The Buckeye state has shifted to the right but only by a couple of points in FHQ's averages as compared to the final tally in 2008. Ohio has proven to be somewhat resistant to uniformly shifting as other states have. Still, the new Ohio Poll hits closer to the FHQ averages than the Q-poll (though the latter is in line with some other polling in the state).

Pennsylvania:
The Muhlenberg poll out of Pennsylvania today puts the margin in the race on the high side of the range of polling that has emerged from the Keystone state. That said, it is still consistent with other polling in the commonwealth and is counterbalanced by polling that has shown the race in the 4-5 point range.

Wisconsin:
Paul Ryan seems to be having an effect on the polling in his home state of Wisconsin. The margin has contracted a couple of points, but still leans in the president's direction.


Despite the flood of new data over the last couple of days, the changes here at FHQ remain minor. And that is, again, by design. The way the averages are set up, they react to changes in polling, but are not too erratic as to be swayed by one outlier survey. There has to be a clear trend. In terms of the electoral college tally, the only clear trends now are that 1) the toss up states favor the president at this point and 2) if there is to be any change to the tally, Florida will likely be the first state to drive that change. [North Carolina is close to a Romney-to-Obama switch, but none of the polling indicates that that is likely to happen. Florida on the other hand...]

On the Electoral College Spectrum, it is still early, but there is a clearly established group of states that will be the targets of campaign efforts down the stretch. Depending on what happens at the convention, that is subject to change, but the light blue/pink states are still the ones that will see the most attention.

No surprise.

The Electoral College Spectrum1
VT-3
(6)2
NJ-14
(160)
MI-16
(257)
AZ-11
(167)
MS-6
(55)
RI-4
(10)
WA-12
(172)
OH-183
(275/281)
GA-16
(156)
ND-3
(49)
HI-4
(14)
NM-5
(177)
CO-9
(284/263)
MT-3
(140)
AL-9
(46)
NY-29
(43)
MN-10
(187)
VA-13
(297/254)
WV-5
(137)
KY-8
(37)
MD-10
(53)
CT-7
(194)
IA-6
(303/241)
IN-11
(132)
KS-6
(29)
CA-55
(108)
OR-7
(201)
FL-29
(332/235)
SC-9
(121)
AK-3
(23)
MA-11
(119)
PA-20
(221)
NC-15
(206)
LA-8
(112)
OK-7
(20)
IL-20
(139)
NV-6
(227)
MO-10
(191)
NE-5
(104)
ID-4
(13)
DE-3
(142)
NH-4
(231)
TN-11
(181)
AR-6
(99)
WY-3
(9)
ME-4
(146)
WI-10
(241)
SD-3
(170)
TX-38
(93)
UT-6
(6)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.

2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Romney won all the states up to and including Ohio (all Obama's toss up states plus Ohio), he would have 272 electoral votes. Romney's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and Romney's is on the right in italics.

3 Ohio is the state where Obama crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line.

On the Watch List, the two category switches (Connecticut and Missouri) stay put, but trade potential switch points. Connecticut is still safely blue, but is right along the Strong/Lean Obama line. Missouri, as FHQ said when it switched in this direction in July, is back to a Lean Romney state and is likely to stay that way; just perhaps on the low end of the category.

The Watch List1
State
Switch
Connecticut
from Lean Obama
to Strong Obama
Florida
from Toss Up Obama
to Toss Up Romney
Michigan
from Toss Up Obama
to Lean Obama
Minnesota
from Strong Obama
to Lean Obama
Missouri
from Lean Romney
to Toss Up Romney
Montana
from Strong Romney
to Lean Romney
Nevada
from Toss Up Obama
to Lean Obama
New Hampshire
from Toss Up Obama
to Lean Obama
North Carolina
from Toss Up Romney
to Toss Up Obama
West Virginia
from Strong Romney
to Lean Romney
Wisconsin
from Toss Up Obama
to Lean Obama
1 Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

Please see:


Are you following FHQ on Twitter, Google+ and Facebook? Click on the links to join in.
Posted by Josh Putnam at 11:00 PM 0 comments
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