The Links (4/20/11): Miscellany

Newt's staffing up in Iowa.

Sorry Roy Moore. You're getting the Buddy Roemer treatment (No separate 2012 Candidates post). For the record, as of April 18, the former Alabama Supreme Court Chief Justice formed an exploratory committee. For president.

Pawlenty's message could connect in South Carolina.

Chris Christie may want to move the New Jersey primary to June, and there may be a few bills that have been introduced in the legislature, but the guy behind the 2007 move to February isn't high on the idea.

Florida may cast a shadow over the 2012 Republican nomination race, but it isn't "just like in 2008."

The Economist has their obligatory primary calendar examination up. [Yes, FHQ is just vain enough to mention that.]

Huntsman ascendant?

Recent Posts:

An April Primary in Georgia?

Washington State House Passes Senate Bill to Cancel 2012 Presidential Primary

Senate Version of Tennessee Primary Bill Passes Committee

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An April Primary in Georgia?

Ink in the form of Governor Nathan Deal's name has yet to hit paper much less dry on the recently passed legislation to hand the date-setting authority for the Peach state's presidential primary to Secretary of State Brian Kemp. But that has not stopped some -- FHQ included -- from speculating on where the Georgia primary will end up on the 2012 presidential primary calendar. That list now includes the current GOP state party chair, Sue Everhart conceding (via the AJC Political Insider blog) "that Georgia is likely to seek an April date."

Conceding? Why?

Well, let's look at the factors involved in the decision-making calculus in the Peach state. First of all, Georgia Democrats will take a back seat in the process. No, the national party likely won't have a competitive nomination race at the presidential level, and that doesn't help. But neither does the fact that the party is in the minority in the state after being swept in every statewide race last year and kept in the minority in the state legislature. Really, so long as Kemp does not select -- assuming the bill is signed into law -- a date prior to the first Tuesday in March, he is not likely to hear even a peep out of Georgia Democrats.

Technically, though, Kemp, a Republican, has the ability to select any date between the last Tuesday in January (the first available Tuesday 60 days following the final date on which the secretary would be able to choose a date, December 1) and the second Tuesday in June. Again, as FHQ pointed out back when the legislation was first proposed, the opening point of that window of time coincides with the date on which the primary in Florida is currently scheduled. If Florida, whether through its state legislature or the proposed bipartisan committee, continues to defy national party rules and maintains that January date, it may become a more attractive location for the Georgia primary in the eyes of Republicans in the state.

It would be attractive save for two reasons. The Georgia delegation to the Republican National Convention in Tampa would be halved and the delegates from that primary would have to be allocated proportionally. Neither of those options is seemingly palatable to the state party's chair nor presumably to others within the party. Traditionally, Georgia has had a winner-take-all allocation of delegates and would go to the convention with a diluted voice of sorts. In practice all the delegates from the Georgia delegation would line up behind the presumptive GOP nominee, but they wouldn't all be Romney men or Palin loyalists or Pawlenty people. In the big picture it isn't a big deal, but to state party folks who have worked hard for a candidate it does.

And yeah, they do hold some sway in the state party; a party that will elect a chair next month at the state convention. That's why one of those candidates, the current chair, Sue Everhart, is conceding that there may be an April primary in Georgia. Of course, she and the party would have to convince Brian Kemp of that first.

Recent Posts:

Washington State House Passes Senate Bill to Cancel 2012 Presidential Primary

Senate Version of Tennessee Primary Bill Passes Committee

Washington State Inches Closer to Canceling 2012 Presidential Primary

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Washington State House Passes Senate Bill to Cancel 2012 Presidential Primary

After a Washington state House Ways and Means Committee vote late last week recommending passage, the full chamber today passed the Senate bill to cancel the Evergreen state's 2012 presidential primary. SB 5119, which previously passed the Senate, was passed by a vote of 69-28. About a third of the minority Republican caucus crossed the aisle and voted for the measure while only four Democrats defected, voting against. The bill was proposed by both the governor and the secretary of state and should be signed into law now that the Senate version has passed both houses of the legislature.

The bill would temporarily suspend the primary until after the 2012 election cycle and would save the state an estimated $10 million for fiscal year 2012.

Here's more from David Ammons in Washington Secretary of State Sam Reed's office.

Recent Posts:

Senate Version of Tennessee Primary Bill Passes Committee

Washington State Inches Closer to Canceling 2012 Presidential Primary

Whither Mid-Atlantic Primary? Delaware Delegate Selection Plan Indicates as Much. ...sort of.

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Senate Version of Tennessee Primary Bill Passes Committee

The Tennessee Senate State and Local Government Committee today unanimously passed SB 599. The bill is the equivalent of the House measure (HB 612) that passed last week. Both bills are seeking to shift the date on which the Volunteer state primary is held from the first Tuesday in February to the first Tuesday in March. After weeks of deferring action on the bill, the committee acted and passed the measure by a 9-0 vote. The measure now moves to the floor of the Senate for consideration there by the full chamber.

The Tennessee legislature like the Oklahoma legislature is Republican-controlled and has similarly shown no willingness to defy national party rules and stick with their current February primary date.

Recent Posts:

Washington State Inches Closer to Canceling 2012 Presidential Primary

Whither Mid-Atlantic Primary? Delaware Delegate Selection Plan Indicates as Much. ...sort of.

Tennessee House Passes March Presidential Primary Bill

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Washington State Inches Closer to Canceling 2012 Presidential Primary

During its April 15 meeting the Washington state House Ways and Means Committee recommended SB 5119 for passage by the full chamber. The bill previously passed the House on April 6 would temporarily cancel the presidential primary in the state; expiring and thus reestablishing the primary law as currently on the books on January 1, 2013. This bill, like its House counterpart, was jointly introduced by the governor and the secretary of state and will be signed into law if it passed the House.

The Washington legislature cannot be in session past April 24, so this should be the last week before the body adjourns and must have fully considered and passed this and other bills.

Thanks to Richard Winger at Ballot Access News for relaying the news out of the Evergreen state.

Recent Posts:

Whither Mid-Atlantic Primary? Delaware Delegate Selection Plan Indicates as Much. ...sort of.

Tennessee House Passes March Presidential Primary Bill

Bill Prefiled in Louisiana to Move Presidential Primary to March

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Whither Mid-Atlantic Primary? Delaware Delegate Selection Plan Indicates as Much. ...sort of.

One Mid-Atlantic primary's loss may be another Mid-Atlantic primary's gain.

A few weeks ago, FHQ cited stories in both the Washington Examiner and from the AP that highlighted the discussions between Democratic officials in Maryland, Washington DC and Delaware concerning coordinated 2012 primaries. Two thirds of the so-called Mid-Atlantic primary are in place as both Maryland and DC are on the verge of officially moving to an April 3 date. Delaware, however, has yet to make any move on the state legislative level. But the Delaware Democratic Party has given the first indication that the plans for a three state primary were perhaps a bit premature.

Instead of an April 3 primary, though, Delaware Democrats, according to their 2012 delegate selection plan, have chosen April 24 for the date on which the First state's presidential primary will be held. Now, a couple of notes are in order. First of all, April 24 is the date of the Pennsylvania primary; a Delaware neighbor. That would create a second April Mid-Atlantic primary, three weeks after the first. Second, no legislation has been introduced in the state legislature to move the primary in Delaware -- to either date. State party Democrats will have the final say in what happens -- adopt the state-funded primary whenever it is scheduled or hold a party-funded primary or caucus on a date of the party's choosing -- but the former will only happen if the Democratic-controlled legislature moves the date to the party's preferred date. Given the partisan overlap, that is likely but not a certainty.

Until the legislature acts, the Delaware primary will remain on February 7 on our 2012 presidential primary calendar. Though the delegate selection plan is a hint at what is going on in the state, it is not indicative of the date-setting decision-making authority there. The legislature in Delaware will wrap up its legislature session in June.

Hat tip to The Green Papers for the news.

Recent Posts:

Tennessee House Passes March Presidential Primary Bill

Bill Prefiled in Louisiana to Move Presidential Primary to March

Did the Missouri House Up the Ante on the State Senate Presidential Primary Bill?

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Tennessee House Passes March Presidential Primary Bill

For five consecutive weeks the Tennessee Senate subcommittee of the State and Local Government Committee has deferred action on the bills before it that would move the Volunteer state's presidential primary from the first Tuesday in February to the first Tuesday in March. And while the on again, off again calendar placement has not been repeated in the state House, the two Republican-sponsored bills to accomplish the same thing in that chamber have languished in committee since being introduced in February.¹ The House, however, can now say that it has passed one of the two bills.

HB 612 passed the state House on April 14 by a bipartisan vote of 91-2. Those two dissenting votes were from two Republicans. The bill now heads to the state Senate for consideration.

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¹ Democratic-sponsored bills to move the presidential primary to May to coincide with municipal elections have gone nowhere in committee.

Recent Posts:

Bill Prefiled in Louisiana to Move Presidential Primary to March

Did the Missouri House Up the Ante on the State Senate Presidential Primary Bill?

Florida House Committee Passes Amended Bill to Create a Presidential Primary Date-Setting Committee

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Bill Prefiled in Louisiana to Move Presidential Primary to March

On Friday, Louisiana state Representative Nita Hutter (R-104th, St. Bernard) prefiled HB 509 in the state House. The legislation would move the Pelican state's presidential primary from the second (or third) Saturday in February to the first Saturday following the first Tuesday in March. This is the same date the Louisiana Republican Party State Central Committee pinpointed for the contest in a resolution it passed last month. Coming out of that meeting, the consensus among Republicans in the state seemed to place a greater emphasis on following the Republican National Committee's rules for delegate selection and avoiding the penalties (losing half the delegation) associated with a violation of the timing rules.

With both chambers nearly evenly divided between the parties -- Republicans holding a narrow advantage in the House and Democrats likewise in the Senate¹ -- this is not a move that Republicans can necessarily move easily through the legislature and onto the desk of Republican governor, Bobby Jindal. That said, Democrats should technically be motivated to pull the Louisiana primary into compliance with the DNC rules for delegate selection as well. And the proposed date for the primary is non-controversial enough to keep it as early as is allowed by both national parties -- avoiding penalties -- and should provide the state with an early enough position to provide Louisiana primary voters with a voice in the 2012 nomination process. In other words, it should pass barring Florida or Missouri-like shenanigans.

The Louisiana legislature formally convenes on April 25.

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1 Due to party switches in the state Senate since the first of the year, the Louisiana Senate is no longer controlled by Democrats.

Recent Posts:

Did the Missouri House Up the Ante on the State Senate Presidential Primary Bill?

Florida House Committee Passes Amended Bill to Create a Presidential Primary Date-Setting Committee

Georgia Senate Passes Presidential Primary Bill on Sine Die Day

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Did the Missouri House Up the Ante on the State Senate Presidential Primary Bill?

The House Committee Substitute actually calls for moving the primary back to March, not November as reported below.

And so the presidential primary saga continues in the Missouri state legislature.

What started out as two reasonable bills to shift the date of the Show Me state's presidential primary from the first Tuesday after the first Monday in February to the first Tuesday after the first Monday in March has seemingly devolved into a process of interchamber one-upsmanship. The Senate bill, SB 282, was amended on the floor in mid-March to anchor the primary to New Hampshire; scheduling the election for a week after the Granite state's first in the nation primary. This happened nearly simultaneous to the House passing its version of the legislation; staying true to the move to March and into compliance with the national party rules.

A few weeks after passing the March version, however, the House has reversed course and one-upped the Senate's change. Here's how the summary for the House Elections Committee substitute to SB 282 reads on the issue of the timing of the presidential primary:

The date of the presidential primary is moved from the first Tuesday after the first Monday in February to the first Tuesday after the first Monday in November.

Now, either that "November" is a typo and it really means "March" or the House Elections Committee is proposing to move the Show Me state's presidential primary to November of this year. Call it a hunch, but I'm willing to bet that that won't sit well with Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina or Nevada. And Florida may have to alter the amended version of HB 1355 to allow the proposed Presidential Preference Primary Date Setting Committee the flexibility to move its primary to a time earlier than the January 3 - March 6 window called for in the bill.

Before everyone gets in a huff over this, it should be noted that the House version of the bill, HB 503, is still active in the Missouri Senate and in fact has a committee hearing there on Monday. That bill, at least until the Senate opts to amend it (if it opts to amend it), still calls for moving the primary to March. Keep in mind also that Governor Jay Nixon (D) is also likely to veto any such bill.¹

But that would keep the Missouri primary on February 7 -- a day after Iowa is scheduled to hold its caucuses and a week before New Hampshire is supposed to hold its first in the nation primary. [Both would move to earlier dates of course.] That's also likely to have the side effect of keeping Florida either right where it is on January 31 or bump the Sunshine state up a little closer to January 3.

No matter how you slice it, the Missouri legislature is keeping things interesting.

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¹ And before any of that action is triggered the bill obviously has to pass on the floor of the state House as well as head back to the Senate if it passes the lower chamber in an altered form.

Recent Posts:

Florida House Committee Passes Amended Bill to Create a Presidential Primary Date-Setting Committee

Georgia Senate Passes Presidential Primary Bill on Sine Die Day

A Follow Up on the Later Texas Primary

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Florida House Committee Passes Amended Bill to Create a Presidential Primary Date-Setting Committee

As expected, an amendment was offered this morning in the Florida House State Affairs Committee to create a Presidential Preference Primary Date Setting Committee. The 10 person group -- staffed with members chosen by the Speaker of the House, President of the Senate and Governor -- would have until October 1 to select a date for the Sunshine state's presidential primary. This provides the state with some timing flexibility by breaking the decision out of the confines of the short period of time in which the Florida legislature is in session.

The amendment was added to HB 1355 by voice vote and the committee substitute was then passed by the State Affairs Committee by a vote of 12-6. That bill is a controversial elections bill that has seen and will see on the floor of the House and in the Senate if it passes resistance by the Democratic minority (via Travis Pillow at The Florida Independent).

Among other things, the bill would require people who change their addresses on election day to vote by provisional ballot and impose new regulations on groups that register voters. It would also dampen the prospects of citizen-sponsored ballot initiatives, shortening the time signatures are valid from four years to two.

Republican support should push it and the primary committee-creating committee provision through the legislature and to Republican Governor Rick Scott's desk.

The Florida legislature is set to adjourn on May 6.

Recent Posts:

Georgia Senate Passes Presidential Primary Bill on Sine Die Day

A Follow Up on the Later Texas Primary

The 2012 Candidates: Santorum's In

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