"The Nevada Republican Executive Committee voted Wednesday to hold the party's 2012 presidential caucus on February 18, a decision that could make GOP voters in the "First in the West" state third in line to vote for their party's next nominee."
Thursday, December 16, 2010
Nevada GOP Sets 2012 Presidential Caucuses Date
Friday, November 19, 2010
Bill Introduced in Texas House to Move 2012 Presidential Primary from March to February
Thursday, November 18, 2010
The Art of Redistricting
Friday, November 12, 2010
2010 Midterm Election Wrap Up -- Political Science Perspective
Wednesday, November 10, 2010
It WILL NOT Happen!
- Obama wasn't supposed to win Iowa in 2008, but he did by seven points.
- McCain was supposedly done in the summer of 2007, yet his fourth place finish -- given the resources he had spent in Iowa -- was seen as a fairly good result.
- John Edwards had to win South Carolina in 2008 after winning there in 2004. But he didn't and that was a damning indictment on his candidacy.
Wednesday, November 3, 2010
Redistricting, State Legislative Elections and 2012
Tuesday, November 2, 2010
Election Night 2010
Are you following FHQ on Twitter and/or Facebook? Click on the links to join in.
Tuesday, September 28, 2010
On Republican "Sticks" and Democratic "Carrots"
Any Republican delegate-selection event held before the first day of April shall be penalized: The result cannot be, as many Republicans prefer, a winner-take-all allocation of delegates. March events "shall provide for the allocation of delegates on a proportional basis." This means only that someof the delegates must be allocated proportional to the total vote.
Because Democrats are severe democrats, they have no winner-take-all events, so they do not have this stick with which to discipline disobedient states. Instead, they brandish -- they are, after all, liberals -- a carrot: States will be offered bonus delegates for moving their nominating events deeper into the nominating season, and for clustering their contests with those of neighboring states.
Monday, September 27, 2010
A short history of presidential primaries meets reality.
Sunday, September 19, 2010
Has something been missed here?
Saturday, September 18, 2010
Pence for President Gets and Assist from the Value Voters Straw Poll
- Mike Pence (24%)
- Mike Huckabee (22%)
- Mitt Romney (13%)
- Newt Gingrich (10%)
- Sarah Palin (7%)
- Rick Santorum (5%)
- Jim DeMint (5%)
- Bobby Jindal (2%)
- Mitch Daniels (2%)
- Chris Christie (2%)
- John Thune (2%)
- Bob McDonnell (1%)
- Marco Rubio (1%)
- Paul Ryan (1%)
- Haley Barbour (1%)
- Ron Paul (1%)
- Jan Brewer (less than 1%)
Wednesday, September 15, 2010
Will the Tea Party Pull Extend to the 2012 GOP Nomination?
Wednesday, September 8, 2010
Turnout always matters unless it doesn't.
Last year, political scientists Stephen Ansolabehere and Charles Stewart pointed out that most of Barack Obama’s increased vote total over John Kerry came from black and Hispanic voters. Those two ethnic/racial groups together accounted for an increase of 7 million votes for Obama, as compared to 3 million added votes from non-Hispanic white citizens. So in thinking about the upcoming elections for the House of Representatives, it makes sense to ask about how blacks and Latinos are represented in the most competitive districts. Consider the 42 seats currently held by Democrats that analyst Charlie Cook considers to be “toss ups.” As these races go, so goes the House in all likelihood. According to the Census Bureau, the median toss-up district’sresidents in 2006-8 were 3.6% Latino and 4.8% black—as compared to shares of 15.1% and 12.3% nationally. Simply put, irrespective of turnout, the electorate that will prove decisive in which party controls the House has fewer voters of color than the electorate that proved decisive in electing Obama.
Gary Johnson for President?
The AP's Glover profiles former New Mexico Gov. Gary Johnson, who appears to be running for president. "Despite two terms as governor of New Mexico and recent visits to 26 states, most Americans have never heard of Gary Johnson. The former Republican governor is mulling a run for president, and his libertarian views and small government platform fit the disenchantment many voters feel toward Washington. Among his supporters is Texas Republican Rep. Ron Paul, who drew a committed following in his 2008 campaign for president and was quoted in the conservative online website The Daily Caller as saying if he didn't run again in 2012, the best candidate would be Johnson."
Former New Mexico Gov. Gary Johnson (R) is exploring a presidential bid even though he knows most people have never heard of him, the AP reports.
Said Johnson: "There are two courses of action. One would be to do nothing and the other would be to burn some shoe leather and see what happens. I'm burning some shoe leather."
Johnson supports slashing government spending, including big cuts to Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security, but also defense spending. He also supports legalizing marijuana, expanding legal immigration and legalizing civil unions for gays and lesbians.
FHQ is of a mind that Ron Paul has a better chance of being the Ron Paul of 2012. Johnson would likely get a pretty good look from the Libertarians and appear on their line in November 2012. That's a second order question at the moment. First Ron Paul and then Gary Johnson.
Saturday, August 7, 2010
RNC Finalizes Primary Schedule Rules for 2012
Saturday, July 31, 2010
Obama v. Pawlenty (2012 Trial Heats, July '10)
The next series of updates are for candidates with only three polls (or less) conducted in hypothetical 2012 general election match ups against President Obama. As such, the trend analyses for Tim Pawlenty, Ron Paul and Jeb Bush are more susceptible to wild fluctuations given the relatively scant level of data available compared to the four candidates (Gingrich, Huckabee, Palin and Romney) covered thus far. These are clearly cases where other variables -- presidential approval and state of the economy -- may be helpful in balancing out polls like the Politico internet poll. In the midst of many other polls, that survey merely appears as an outlier. It is still an outlier for a candidate with just a few polls against Obama, but in such a case, it serves as a distinct statistical anchor. In such cases, the straight average "feels" more trustworthy for the three candidates with more than one survey conducted against Obama.
2012 Presidential Trial Heat Polling (Obama v. Pawlenty) | ||||||
Poll | Date | Margin of Error | Sample | Obama | Pawlenty | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Politico [Internet] | July 9-14, 2010 | +/- 3.1% | 1011 likely voters | 39 | 21 | 40 |
Public Policy Polling | Dec. 4-7, 2009 | +/- 2.8% | 1253 likely voters | 48 | 35 | 17 |
Public Policy Polling | Oct. 16-19, 2009 | +/- 3.5% | 766 likely voters | 50 | 30 | 20 |
Average | 45.67 | 28.67 | -- | |||
Regression Average | 38.3 | 20.99 | -- |
Thursday, July 29, 2010
And they're off!!! Next Stop 2012.
Obama v. Gingrich (2012 Trial Heats, July '10)
And Newt Gingrich?
2012 Presidential Trial Heat Polling (Obama v. Gingrich) | ||||||
Poll | Date | Margin of Error | Sample | Obama | Gingrich | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling | July 9-12, 2010 | +/- 3.8% | 667 likely voters | 45 | 46 | 9 |
Public Policy Polling | June 4-7, 2010 | +/- 3.8% | 650 likely voters | 47 | 39 | 14 |
Public Policy Polling | May 7-9, 2010 | +/- % | 707 likely voters | 49 | 42 | 9 |
Public Policy Polling | April 9-11, 2010 | +/- 3.9% | 622 likely voters | 45 | 45 | 10 |
CNN | April 9-11, 2010 | +/- 3.5% | 907 reg. voters | 55 | 43 | -- |
Clarus Research | March 17-20, 2010 | +/- 3% | 1050 reg. voters | 48 | 36 | 16 |
Clarus Research | Aug. 14-18, 2009 | +/- 3.1% | 1003 voters | 52 | 34 | 15 |
Public Policy Polling | Aug. 14-17, 2009 | +/- 3.3% | 909 likely voters | 49 | 41 | 10 |
Public Policy Polling | July 15-16, 2009 | +/- 4.1% | 577 likely voters | 50 | 42 | 9 |
Public Policy Polling | June 12-16, 2009 | +/- 3.9% | 638 likely voters | 49 | 41 | 10 |
Public Policy Polling | May 14-18, 2009 | +/- 3.1% | 1000 likely voters | 53 | 36 | 11 |
Public Policy Polling | April 17-19, 2009 | +/- 3.7% | 686 likely voters | 52 | 39 | 9 |
Average | 49.45 | 40.00 | -- | |||
Regression Average | 46.82 | 42.24 | -- |
Wednesday, July 28, 2010
Obama v. Romney (2012 Trial Heats, July '10)
Among the four candidate who are surveyed most frequently in hypothetical 2012 general election match ups against President Obama, Mitt Romney does the best. [Yes, that spoils the Gingrich results on some level, but so be it.] The former Massachusetts governor's numbers are on par with Mike Huckabee's as measured by both the straight average of polls conducted and the regression trend estimate, but Romney actually leads Obama in the latter -- the only candidate to do so. While Romney tended to keep Obama's level of support at low levels as compared to most of the other Republicans polled, the 2008 presidential candidate also failed to muster much support of his own during the first half on 2009. Since July of last year, though, Romney has fared far better against Obama compared to the other Republicans across a variety of polling houses.
2012 Presidential Trial Heat Polling (Obama v. Romney) | ||||||
Poll | Date | Margin of Error | Sample | Obama | Romney | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Politico [Internet] | July 9-14, 2010 | +/- 3.1% | 1011 likely voters | 39 | 35 | 26 |
Public Policy Polling | July 9-12, 2010 | +/- 3.8% | 667 likely voters | 43 | 46 | 11 |
Public Policy Polling | June 4-7, 2010 | +/- 3.8% | 650 likely voters | 45 | 42 | 13 |
Public Policy Polling | May 7-9, 2010 | +/- % | 707 likely voters | 46 | 44 | 11 |
Public Policy Polling | April 9-11, 2010 | +/- 3.9% | 622 likely voters | 44 | 45 | 10 |
CNN | April 9-11, 2010 | +/- 3.5% | 907 reg. voters | 53 | 45 | -- |
Clarus Research | March 17-20, 2010 | +/- 3% | 1050 reg. voters | 45 | 41 | 14 |
Public Policy Polling | March 12-14, 2010 | +/- 2.6% | 1403 likely voters | 44 | 44 | 12 |
Harris [Internet] | March 10-12, 2010 | +/- --% | 2344 adults | 46 | 39 | 15 |
Public Policy Polling | Feb. 13-15, 2010 | +/- 3.5% | 743 likely voters | 45 | 43 | 12 |
Public Policy Polling | Jan. 18-19, 2010 | +/- 2.8% | 1151 likely voters | 44 | 42 | 15 |
Public Policy Polling | Dec. 4-7, 2009 | +/- 2.8% | 1253 likely voters | 47 | 42 | 12 |
Rasmussen | Nov. 24, 2009 | +/- 3.5% | 800 likely voters | 44 | 44 | 5 |
Public Policy Polling | Nov. 13-15, 2009 | +/- 3% | 1066 likely voters | 48 | 43 | 9 |
Public Policy Polling | Oct. 16-19, 2009 | +/- 3.5% | 766 likely voters | 48 | 40 | 12 |
Public Policy Polling | Sept. 18-21, 2009 | +/- 3.9% | 621 likely voters | 48 | 39 | 13 |
Clarus Research | Aug. 14-18, 2009 | +/- 3.1% | 1003 voters | 47 | 38 | 15 |
Public Policy Polling | Aug. 14-17, 2009 | +/- 3.3% | 909 likely voters | 47 | 40 | 12 |
Rasmussen | July 16-17, 2009 | +/- 3% | 1000 likely voters | 45 | 45 | 3 |
Public Policy Polling | July 15-16, 2009 | +/- 4.1% | 577 likely voters | 49 | 40 | 11 |
Public Policy Polling | June 12-16, 2009 | +/- 3.9% | 638 likely voters | 48 | 40 | 12 |
Public Policy Polling | May 14-18, 2009 | +/- 3.1% | 1000 likely voters | 53 | 35 | 12 |
Public Policy Polling | April 17-19, 2009 | +/- 3.7% | 686 likely voters | 50 | 39 | 11 |
Average | 46.3 | 41.18 | -- | |||
Regression Average | 42.97 | 43.04 | -- |
Romney still ahead in New Hampshire (2012) -- July 2010
Tuesday, July 27, 2010
Obama v. Huckabee (2012 Trial Heats, July '10)
2012 Presidential Trial Heat Polling (Obama v. Huckabee) | ||||||
Poll | Date | Margin of Error | Sample | Obama | Huckabee | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Politico [Internet] | July 9-14, 2010 | +/- 3.1% | 1011 likely voters | 39 | 35 | 25 |
Public Policy Polling | July 9-12, 2010 | +/- 3.8% | 667 likely voters | 45 | 47 | 8 |
Public Policy Polling | June 4-7, 2010 | +/- 3.8% | 650 likely voters | 46 | 44 | 10 |
Public Policy Polling | May 7-9, 2010 | +/- % | 707 likely voters | 46 | 45 | 8 |
Public Policy Polling | April 9-11, 2010 | +/- 3.9% | 622 likely voters | 45 | 47 | 9 |
CNN | April 9-11, 2010 | +/- 3.5% | 907 reg. voters | 54 | 45 | -- |
Clarus Research | March 17-20, 2010 | +/- 3% | 1050 reg. voters | 47 | 39 | 14 |
Public Policy Polling | March 12-14, 2010 | +/- 2.6% | 1403 likely voters | 46 | 44 | 10 |
Public Policy Polling | Feb. 13-15, 2010 | +/- 3.5% | 743 likely voters | 46 | 43 | 11 |
Public Policy Polling | Jan. 18-19, 2010 | +/- 2.8% | 1151 likely voters | 44 | 45 | 11 |
Public Policy Polling | Dec. 4-7, 2009 | +/- 2.8% | 1253 likely voters | 50 | 44 | 6 |
Rasmussen | Nov. 24, 2009 | +/- 3.5% | 800 likely voters | 45 | 41 | 8 |
Public Policy Polling | Nov. 13-15, 2009 | +/- 3% | 1066 likely voters | 49 | 44 | 7 |
Public Policy Polling | Oct. 16-19, 2009 | +/- 3.5% | 766 likely voters | 47 | 43 | 10 |
Public Policy Polling | Sept. 18-21, 2009 | +/- 3.9% | 621 likely voters | 48 | 41 | 11 |
Clarus Research | Aug. 14-18, 2009 | +/- 3.1% | 1003 voters | 48 | 38 | 15 |
Public Policy Polling | Aug. 14-17, 2009 | +/- 3.3% | 909 likely voters | 47 | 44 | 10 |
Public Policy Polling | July 15-16, 2009 | +/- 4.1% | 577 likely voters | 48 | 42 | 10 |
Public Policy Polling | June 12-16, 2009 | +/- 3.9% | 638 likely voters | 50 | 43 | 8 |
Public Policy Polling | May 14-18, 2009 | +/- 3.1% | 1000 likely voters | 52 | 39 | 9 |
Public Policy Polling | April 17-19, 2009 | +/- 3.7% | 686 likely voters | 49 | 42 | 9 |
Average | 46.88 | 42.5 | -- | |||
Regression Average | 43.91 | 43.46 | -- |