Before we can even consider the electoral college landscape in 2012, we have to clear the redistricting hurdle first. And the chatter on the subject has ramped up as of late.
In Indiana, they're thinking about a less partisan gerrymandered map.
In Texas, two new seats are taking shape for the gains the Lone Star state is likely to enjoy following next year's census. And according to Texas Democratic Party chair, Boyd Ritchie, the DNC may get involved financially in state legislative races next year with redistricting (and the 2003 Republican redraw) in mind.
Two opposite ends of the spectrum there.
Recent Posts:
It's Never too Early for a 2012 (Value Voters) Straw Poll
New Members on the Democratic Party's Rules and Bylaws Committee
State of the Race: Virginia Governor (9/5/09)
Thursday, September 10, 2009
Tuesday, September 8, 2009
It's Never too Early for a 2012 (Value Voters) Straw Poll
Next week's Value Voters Summit is certainly not short on speakers doubling as potential hopefuls for the 2012 GOP nomination. And since many are going to be there speaking anyway, why not poll those in attendance to gauge the amount of support behind each candidate among this valuable group of Republican primary voters?
Why not, indeed? Why should Iowa and New Hampshire have all the fun?
Here's the ballot:
That's a deep pool. But what? No Crist, no Barbour, no Thune?
Normally, I'd add the usual caveats that I include in any 2012 polling post. But in this case, I find this straw poll to be a fairly significant early indicator of how the 2012 field is going to shape up.
One additional note we should make is that there are a few folks on the ballot that have been discussed in the context of splitting this segment of the Republican primary voting bloc in an early state like Iowa; making a Romney victory there more likely. It will be interesting also to see if the Sarah Palins and Mike Huckabees and Rick Santorums of the list split a sizable chunk of the vote in any noticeable way.
Recent Posts:
New Members on the Democratic Party's Rules and Bylaws Committee
State of the Race: Virginia Governor (9/5/09)
The 2012 Presidential Candidates on Twitter (Aug. 2009)
Why not, indeed? Why should Iowa and New Hampshire have all the fun?
Here's the ballot:
Newt Gingrich
Mike Huckabee*
Bobby Jindal
Sarah Palin
Ron Paul
Tim Pawlenty*
Mike Pence*
Rick Perry*
Mitt Romney*
Rick Santorum
*also scheduled to speak
That's a deep pool. But what? No Crist, no Barbour, no Thune?
Normally, I'd add the usual caveats that I include in any 2012 polling post. But in this case, I find this straw poll to be a fairly significant early indicator of how the 2012 field is going to shape up.
"The 2012 presidential primaries may be several years away but many value voters are already surveying the field of possible candidates," said Family Research Council Action President Tony Perkins. "This straw poll is an early test for possible presidential contenders who have shown leadership on the major issues facing our country."It's no mistake that Mitt Romney will be speaking; this is a group he is absolutely going to have to convince of his conservative bona fides in some respects in order to gain their vote in just more than three years time. He is playing the current period correctly by staking out a firm, fiscally conservative line, but this is a group he will need if he is to be the frontrunner heading into the 2012 primaries. Things looked good on paper for Romney in 2008 as well, but it didn't work out.
One additional note we should make is that there are a few folks on the ballot that have been discussed in the context of splitting this segment of the Republican primary voting bloc in an early state like Iowa; making a Romney victory there more likely. It will be interesting also to see if the Sarah Palins and Mike Huckabees and Rick Santorums of the list split a sizable chunk of the vote in any noticeable way.
Recent Posts:
New Members on the Democratic Party's Rules and Bylaws Committee
State of the Race: Virginia Governor (9/5/09)
The 2012 Presidential Candidates on Twitter (Aug. 2009)
Monday, September 7, 2009
New Members on the Democratic Party's Rules and Bylaws Committee
It is too bad that this story appeared over at The Hill on Saturday. It is something that got lost amid the distractions of a long holiday weekend.
To the victor goes the spoils.
DNC Chairman Tim Kaine last week appointed several new members to the Rules and Bylaws Committee (Remember them?) of the Democratic Party. To me, though, the interesting thing is not the inevitability that Clinton supporters in positions on the committee were replaced by Obama supporters (or New Hampshire's representation on the R&B), but the fact that there are at least three members of the Rules and Bylaws Committee that are simultaneously serving on the Democratic Change Commission. Jeff Berman, Minyon Moore and Randi Weingarten are all pulling double duty.
Why is this noteworthy?
Well, as things are set up for 2012 (presidential nomination) rules making, the Democratic Change Commission debates, formulates and recommends a plan to tweak and ultimately govern delegate selection for the 2012 nomination. That recommendation, though, is passed off to the Rules and Bylaws Committee for approval. The Change Commission is due to make said recommendation by January 1, 2010, and if history (the 2008 cycle) is any indication, the R&B will formalize those rules some time during the late summer of next year.
Still, what does the fact that several members are pulling the double matter? It means that the Rules and Bylaws Committee has representation (at least 3 of the 37 Democratic Change Commission members) on the Change Commission. Does that mean they can push through or prevent reform to some degree? Not really (with so many total members), but it does provide the committee with something of a symbolic footprint on the meetings this fall of the DCC. It also further bolsters the notion that real change to this process will be shunted off to be dealt with in the future and that the president (as so many presidential nominees of both parties before him) is attached to the status quo; the process though which he won the nomination.
In a summer of discontent this likely won't sit well with those on the left looking for change. And though, I'll admit that the Change Commission (at least some among its ranks) foresee the need to make some significant changes to the nomination system, that has always run against the notion that presidents stick with what got them there. Does that mean that the latter will outweigh the former in this instance. It does not, but it would be wise to consider both as the 2012 rules are being considered, crafted and certified.
Recent Posts:
State of the Race: Virginia Governor (9/5/09)
The 2012 Presidential Candidates on Twitter (Aug. 2009)
State of the Race: Virginia Governor (9/2/09)
To the victor goes the spoils.
DNC Chairman Tim Kaine last week appointed several new members to the Rules and Bylaws Committee (Remember them?) of the Democratic Party. To me, though, the interesting thing is not the inevitability that Clinton supporters in positions on the committee were replaced by Obama supporters (or New Hampshire's representation on the R&B), but the fact that there are at least three members of the Rules and Bylaws Committee that are simultaneously serving on the Democratic Change Commission. Jeff Berman, Minyon Moore and Randi Weingarten are all pulling double duty.
Why is this noteworthy?
Well, as things are set up for 2012 (presidential nomination) rules making, the Democratic Change Commission debates, formulates and recommends a plan to tweak and ultimately govern delegate selection for the 2012 nomination. That recommendation, though, is passed off to the Rules and Bylaws Committee for approval. The Change Commission is due to make said recommendation by January 1, 2010, and if history (the 2008 cycle) is any indication, the R&B will formalize those rules some time during the late summer of next year.
Still, what does the fact that several members are pulling the double matter? It means that the Rules and Bylaws Committee has representation (at least 3 of the 37 Democratic Change Commission members) on the Change Commission. Does that mean they can push through or prevent reform to some degree? Not really (with so many total members), but it does provide the committee with something of a symbolic footprint on the meetings this fall of the DCC. It also further bolsters the notion that real change to this process will be shunted off to be dealt with in the future and that the president (as so many presidential nominees of both parties before him) is attached to the status quo; the process though which he won the nomination.
In a summer of discontent this likely won't sit well with those on the left looking for change. And though, I'll admit that the Change Commission (at least some among its ranks) foresee the need to make some significant changes to the nomination system, that has always run against the notion that presidents stick with what got them there. Does that mean that the latter will outweigh the former in this instance. It does not, but it would be wise to consider both as the 2012 rules are being considered, crafted and certified.
Recent Posts:
State of the Race: Virginia Governor (9/5/09)
The 2012 Presidential Candidates on Twitter (Aug. 2009)
State of the Race: Virginia Governor (9/2/09)
Saturday, September 5, 2009
State of the Race: Virginia Governor (9/5/09)
[Click to Enlarge]How about now?
Have the ideas proffered by Bob McDonnell in his thesis and covered widely this week sunk in among likely voters? More importantly, has it had any impact? The Rasmussen poll that was in the field on the Monday after the news broke showed very little, if any movement away from McDonnell or toward Deeds since the previous survey of the state from the polling firm. The same is true of the Survey USA poll that was released on Friday night (before a holiday weekend!?!).
| 2009 Virginia Gubernatorial Race Polling | ||||||
| Poll | Date | Margin of Error | Sample | Deeds | McDonnell | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Survey USA | Sept. 1-3, 2009 | +/- 4% | 611 likely voters | 42 | 54 | 4 |
Since the firm's last poll in the race (in late July), there has essentially been no movement. Sure, it appears as if there has been a slight shift toward Deeds -- the gap has closed in the interim period from 15 to 12 points -- but that movement is within the margin of error.
So the thesis has had no impact?
Well, it looks that way doesn't it? But let's look a bit more closely at the toplines of this poll. What segment of the likely voting population would be expected to be most affected by the news of the thesis. Other than Democrats, the most obvious answer is women (Yes, there is a fairly broad overlap between the two.). The underlying "a woman's place is in the home" theme that peppers the thesis would hypothetically motivate women (on average) to want to vote against Bob McDonnell or say they would.
But what do we see in the latest Survey USA poll? First of all, women in this sample actually prefer McDonnell to Deeds by a margin of seven points. And secondly, that has increased since the firm's last, pre-thesis poll in July. Now, this is a finding that runs counterintuitively to what we know of electoral politics. Typically, women side with the Democratic candidate. That varies from race to race, but more often than not that gender gap is present to some extent. Before we dismiss this poll -- something FHQ wouldn't do anyway -- let's look at some other recent polls and how the samples broke along gender lines.
This isn't an exhaustive examination, but let's look at this trend in the polls conducted during and since August. The polls for which we have data in that period are the Public Policy Polling survey conducted last weekend and the Daily Kos/Research 2000 poll done earlier in August. The Washington Post poll, though it released a ton of data, did not include the gender breakdown and the two Rasmussen polls* are excluded. For good measure, let's throw in that July Survey USA poll and the earlier August poll from PPP.
PPP (early Aug.):Honestly, those results are all over the place; especially those PPP numbers. They represent the two extremes, +12 McDonnell (in the early August poll that showed McCain voters outnumbering Obama voters by 11 points in the sample) to +9 Deeds in their latest poll. Granted across all of these polls, we're talking about subsamples, but on gender; not on something like liberal Republicans who voted for Obama, for example. It's a healthy subsample in other words. If we simply average the spreads in these five polls (not accounting for any kind of decay in the polls' weights over time) we find McDonnell ahead by about 3 points among women. At least that gives us some baseline for comparison. It provides us with enough information to say, "Well, it looks like this recent Survey USA poll shows a but more support for the Republican than average."
McDonnell: 50
Deeds: 38
SUSA (July):
McDonnell: 49
Deeds: 44
Kos/R2K (Aug.):
McDonnell: 45
Deeds: 46
PPP (Aug.):
McDonnell: 40
Deeds: 49
SUSA (Sept.):
McDonnell: 52
Deeds: 45
The bottom line is that this is still a somewhat striking result given what we know of the gender gap. However, at least we have some context now.
Gender wasn't what Survey USA thought was interesting in this particular poll. To the firm it was about the 2008 vote choice of the respondents in the sample. "Of those who voted for Barack Obama in 2008 and who are judged by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in November 2009, 13% cross-over for McDonnell, twice the number of McCain voters who cross-over for Deeds." Yeah, that catches your eye, too. I'd really like to see those cross-overs isolated (talk about a subsample) just so we can see what the characteristics of a typical Obama-McDonnell or McCain-Deeds respondent are.
That may be asking too much.
.png)
[Click to Enlarge]For the moment, though, it looks as if McDonnell has yet to be affected by the thesis revelation. It still feels too early to me for there to have been an effect. [This coming week's polls will be indicative.] That hunch is conditioned by the presence of the story to some extent. If it continues to get play in the media, that obviously increases the chances that it will potentially have an effect (exposure theory). Of course, the more polls released that show no impact, the better for McDonnell. That will serve to shift the narrative away from his previous writings.
*Yeah, I'm still too cheap to pony up for the Rasmussen subscription that would provide me with a more in-depth series of crosstabs for these polls. If you're reading this, have a Rasmussen subscription and would like to share that gender information with our readers, just drop a comment in the comments section below.
Recent Posts:
The 2012 Presidential Candidates on Twitter (Aug. 2009)
State of the Race: Virginia Governor (9/2/09)
State of the Race: New Jersey Governor (9/1/09)
Thursday, September 3, 2009
The 2012 Presidential Candidates on Twitter (Aug. 2009)
August meant more than just summer vacation and a congressional recess. Ultimately, the month proved to be -- given those distractions -- a slow month for the prospective 2012 candidates on Twitter. Even at 140 characters or less, most of the (now growing group) of possible candidates found other ways to while away the waning days of summer.
Of course, much of that could have been fueled, at least in terms of perception, by the sudden absence of the most prolific Twitterer of the bunch, Sarah Palin. @AKGovSarahPalin called it quits on the microblogging service as soon as her resignation from the chief executive's position in the 49th state became official, but promised to return (apparently as @SarahPalinUSA) sometime in the future. That day has not come, which leaves us with a conundrum here at FHQ. How do we account for the former Alaska governor's following between two accounts? Much of that issue will disappear eventually once Palin actually begins tweeting again on her new account. For the time being, though, her original account is still pulling in more followers (even with no new tweets since our last update) than the new account, sans tweeting, has. For the time being, then, we'll be using the original account in our updates. And really that only affects her tweets per day numbers and her follower ratio (She's still well ahead of all the other prospective candidates, save Newt Gingrich.). For comparison, however, FHQ will note that @SarahPalinUSA has (as of this morning) just under 4000 followers.
But how did everyone else fare during August?
[Click to Enlarge]
What can you say? Newt Gingrich continues to dwarf all the other candidates with only Palin putting a dent in the former Speaker's advantage. Well technically, it isn't really a dent as Gingrich is still gaining more per month, but Palin is the only one who really registers. Even that is a distant second, though. At the moment (as of this morning) Gingrich was closing in on the one million follower mark. One politician he does trail is Barack Obama who has recently crested above the two million follower level. The bully pulpit, it seems, stretches into the microblogging realm as well.
[Click to Enlarge]
But let's pull Gingrich out and see where the other Twittering pols come in this month. One addition we've made since the July update is Rick Santorum, who appears to be testing the waters for a possible run at the GOP nomination in 2012. I'd wager, he's hoping to get a better response on the campaign trail than on Twitter thus far. That probably isn't a fair assessment, though, considering the former Pennsylvania senator only began tweeting in late July. Still, he's got some catching up to do. There's a little flash of green by his name above, but this graph is clearly about Palin, with Mike Huckabee and Bobby Jindal representing the only others who avoid (what should be dubbed) the monthly Twitter afterthought designation.
[Click to Enlarge]
Granted, as FHQ has argued, a Twitter following is conditioned by how often a candidate is tweeting. Some 2012ers tweet more than others. Gingrich and Palin (even though the latter isn't currently active on the service) continue to maintain large tweet per day numbers. And Mike Huckabee is the only other candidate who makes Twitter a daily routine. Everyone else is only sporadically adding to their comments. FHQ has made a habit of pointing out how Palin, Huckabee and Romney have been constantly clustered together atop 2012 primary polling throughout 2009, but only the former Arkansas governor and his colleague from the north are the ones active through this medium. Mitt Romney, despite being the early favorite for the 2012 nomination, has not turned to Twitter as a means of amassing a following for political purposes. It seems the Bay state's former governor has been busy raising money through his Free and Strong American PAC and making donations to those up for reelection in 2010 to turn to Twitter. But grassroots growth is something that would likely work well for Palin or Huckabee and would make Twitter a valuable tool. Romney on the other hand is working the establishment within the Republican Party and Twitter honestly is not going to do him much good in that capacity. Now, that may change when and if Romney officially announces in say, early 2011, but he may remain a quiet microblogger between now and then. A sudden uptick in Twitter usage may signal Romney is getting ready though. We'll see.
[Click to Enlarge]
Even without being too terribly active, Romney still has a pretty good Follower Ratio (followers/tweet/day). The former Massachusetts governor trails only Newt Gingrich in that respect. Only Bobby Jindal registers anything approaching the bang for the buck that those two are getting out of what they put into the service. And that is where Palin continues to lack. Sure, the Alaskan has been tweetless since July, but for what she put into it even before her resignation, she wasn't getting much of a return in terms of a following.
FHQ will be back next month to see if that changes any.
See FHQ's May, June and July Twitter updates as well.
Recent Posts:
State of the Race: Virginia Governor (9/2/09)
State of the Race: New Jersey Governor (9/1/09)
State of the Race: Virginia Governor (9/1/09)
Of course, much of that could have been fueled, at least in terms of perception, by the sudden absence of the most prolific Twitterer of the bunch, Sarah Palin. @AKGovSarahPalin called it quits on the microblogging service as soon as her resignation from the chief executive's position in the 49th state became official, but promised to return (apparently as @SarahPalinUSA) sometime in the future. That day has not come, which leaves us with a conundrum here at FHQ. How do we account for the former Alaska governor's following between two accounts? Much of that issue will disappear eventually once Palin actually begins tweeting again on her new account. For the time being, though, her original account is still pulling in more followers (even with no new tweets since our last update) than the new account, sans tweeting, has. For the time being, then, we'll be using the original account in our updates. And really that only affects her tweets per day numbers and her follower ratio (She's still well ahead of all the other prospective candidates, save Newt Gingrich.). For comparison, however, FHQ will note that @SarahPalinUSA has (as of this morning) just under 4000 followers.
But how did everyone else fare during August?
[Click to Enlarge]What can you say? Newt Gingrich continues to dwarf all the other candidates with only Palin putting a dent in the former Speaker's advantage. Well technically, it isn't really a dent as Gingrich is still gaining more per month, but Palin is the only one who really registers. Even that is a distant second, though. At the moment (as of this morning) Gingrich was closing in on the one million follower mark. One politician he does trail is Barack Obama who has recently crested above the two million follower level. The bully pulpit, it seems, stretches into the microblogging realm as well.
[Click to Enlarge]But let's pull Gingrich out and see where the other Twittering pols come in this month. One addition we've made since the July update is Rick Santorum, who appears to be testing the waters for a possible run at the GOP nomination in 2012. I'd wager, he's hoping to get a better response on the campaign trail than on Twitter thus far. That probably isn't a fair assessment, though, considering the former Pennsylvania senator only began tweeting in late July. Still, he's got some catching up to do. There's a little flash of green by his name above, but this graph is clearly about Palin, with Mike Huckabee and Bobby Jindal representing the only others who avoid (what should be dubbed) the monthly Twitter afterthought designation.
[Click to Enlarge]Granted, as FHQ has argued, a Twitter following is conditioned by how often a candidate is tweeting. Some 2012ers tweet more than others. Gingrich and Palin (even though the latter isn't currently active on the service) continue to maintain large tweet per day numbers. And Mike Huckabee is the only other candidate who makes Twitter a daily routine. Everyone else is only sporadically adding to their comments. FHQ has made a habit of pointing out how Palin, Huckabee and Romney have been constantly clustered together atop 2012 primary polling throughout 2009, but only the former Arkansas governor and his colleague from the north are the ones active through this medium. Mitt Romney, despite being the early favorite for the 2012 nomination, has not turned to Twitter as a means of amassing a following for political purposes. It seems the Bay state's former governor has been busy raising money through his Free and Strong American PAC and making donations to those up for reelection in 2010 to turn to Twitter. But grassroots growth is something that would likely work well for Palin or Huckabee and would make Twitter a valuable tool. Romney on the other hand is working the establishment within the Republican Party and Twitter honestly is not going to do him much good in that capacity. Now, that may change when and if Romney officially announces in say, early 2011, but he may remain a quiet microblogger between now and then. A sudden uptick in Twitter usage may signal Romney is getting ready though. We'll see.
[Click to Enlarge]Even without being too terribly active, Romney still has a pretty good Follower Ratio (followers/tweet/day). The former Massachusetts governor trails only Newt Gingrich in that respect. Only Bobby Jindal registers anything approaching the bang for the buck that those two are getting out of what they put into the service. And that is where Palin continues to lack. Sure, the Alaskan has been tweetless since July, but for what she put into it even before her resignation, she wasn't getting much of a return in terms of a following.
FHQ will be back next month to see if that changes any.
See FHQ's May, June and July Twitter updates as well.
Recent Posts:
State of the Race: Virginia Governor (9/2/09)
State of the Race: New Jersey Governor (9/1/09)
State of the Race: Virginia Governor (9/1/09)
Wednesday, September 2, 2009
State of the Race: Virginia Governor (9/2/09)
[Click to Enlarge]It is too early.
Anxious observers of both partisan stripes are waiting for the inevitable (or perhaps not so inevitable) negative impact Bob McDonnell's Regent University thesis will have on the Virginia Republican's fortunes in the 2009 gubernatorial race in the Old Dominion. A day after the beginning of the political week began, when this story broke, is just too early for this to have sunk in and have had any measurable influence. Does that mean McDonnell is headed for automatic defeat in this contest? No. However, this does represent an opening for the Deeds campaign. It affords the Deeds campaign the opportunity to energize their base and close the enthusiasm gap in a way that to this point has been lacking (not from lack of trying). As I said recently, this isn't the type of revelation that is necessary going to hurt McDonnell among conservatives, but it does potentially put some independents in play.
Is it to that point yet? Will it get to that point? Maybe. Maybe not. But it will take some time. Polls next week will be a good starting barometer of the state of things post-thesis.
| 2009 Virginia Gubernatorial Race Polling | ||||||
| Poll | Date | Margin of Error | Sample | Deeds | McDonnell | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rasmussen | Sept. 1, 2009 | +/- 4.5% | 500 likely voters | 39 | 49 | 9 |
In the meantime, Rasmussen released a new poll in the Virginia race today that did not really show that much movement from a month ago. In fact, Deeds dropped by a handful of percentage points among the sans-leaners version of the survey results while McDonnell stood pat. [Again, it is FHQ's policy to take that version -- the one where undecideds are placed in the camp of one candidate or another -- over the other.] Is this status quo result a telltale sign that McDonnell is safe on this? No, I don't think so (for the reasons I've mentioned already).
That said, the numbers didn't make that much of an impact on FHQ's graduated weighted average. Yes, Deeds fell a bit and McDonnell held steady versus yesterday's update, but we are not talking about some fundamental shift here. This was a status quo sustaining survey.
The bottom line? McDonnell leads, but an unknown has been introduced into the equation; one that could have an effect on the former Virginia attorney general's numbers.
.png)
[Click to Enlarge]Recent Posts:
State of the Race: New Jersey Governor (9/1/09)
State of the Race: Virginia Governor (9/1/09)
2012 Presidential Trial Heats (Clarus Research Group): Obama vs. Gingrich/Huckabee/Palin/Romney
Tuesday, September 1, 2009
State of the Race: New Jersey Governor (9/1/09)
[Click to Enlarge]What effect have the negative charges levied against Chris Christie had in the New Jersey governors race? If you look at the polls that were released a today (yesterday technically), you'd be hard-pressed to conclude anything other than "not much". The fact of the matter is that Republican Christie continues to be in good shape. More often than not recently, the former US attorney has been in themid- to upper 40s in the polls (not a bad spot to be in a three person race) while incumbent, Jon Corzine has remained in the upper 30s to lower 40s range. That wasn't any different in the two polls released most recently.
| 2009 New Jersey Gubernatorial Race Polling | |||||||
| Poll | Date | Margin of Error | Sample | Corzine | Christie | Daggett | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quinnipiac | Aug. 25-30, 2009 | +/- 2.4% | 1612 likely voters | 37 | 47 | 9 | 6 |
| Fairleigh Dickinson [pdf] | Aug. 24-30, 2009 | +/- 4% | 715 likely voters | 42 | 47 | 1 | 6 |
Christie was steady in both at 47% support while Corzine hit both ends of the spectrum in his range; upper 30s in the Quinnipiac poll, lower 40s in the Fairleigh Dickinson poll. The net effect is essentially nil in FHQ's graduated weighted averaging in the race. And for the status quo trajectory to be altered in any noticeable way, there is going to have to be a fundamental and distinct change in the polling. As you can see in the figure below, despite recent fluctuations in polling (for Christie specifically), whether above or below the average, that average has basically flatlined. So despite the fact that there has been something of an accumulation of negative news coming out about Chris Christie, it doesn't seem to be flagging his support in polling. Corzine just appears to be an unpopular incumbent.
The one interesting thing in these two polls is that Corzine and independent, Chris Daggett, appear to be locked in a zero sum game (And yes, this could simply be coincidental.). As Daggett's support rises, Corzine's goes down. This trend has not made itself clear in any of the previous polling in the race, but it is worth noting that Christie's numbers and those in the undecided column are the exact same in both polls. The fluctuation is between Corzine and Daggett.
.png)
[Click to Enlarge]My gut is that ultimately this is a two horse race and that most people will decide between Christie and Corzine. That implies that the 9% support Daggett is garnering in the Quinnipiac poll is a bit high. However, it isn't clear that those folks (those aligned with Daggett in that poll) would move in whole or in part toward Corzine. For the incumbent to win, though, he'll have to count on swaying both a majority of those Daggett "supporters" (and there are some supporters without quotes out there as well) and undecideds. For New Jersey (and national) Democrats trumpeting the "those Democrats will come home in November" trend (something that in gubernatorial races is not that clear), that is the hope. But the hour is getting late, Corzine is still stuck below 42% and those playing hard-to-get are sticking to their guns. Corzine has some room to grow as both these polls show him below 75% with Democrats, but like the Virginia race (though not nearly to the extent), independents are leaning toward the Republican candidate. On average (in these two polls), Christie is about 20 points up. Corzine will have to raise the bar among Democrats and close that gap among independents to have a chance.
...even with the cushion Democrats enjoy in Garden state registration.
Recent Posts:
State of the Race: Virginia Governor (9/1/09)
2012 Presidential Trial Heats (Clarus Research Group): Obama vs. Gingrich/Huckabee/Palin/Romney
Have the Races Changed in New Jersey and Virginia?
State of the Race: Virginia Governor (9/1/09)
[Click to Enlarge]
Let's take a quick and dirty look at the Virginia governors race, where today Public Policy Polling released a new poll. Again, this race is in wait-and-see mode at the moment. While the PPP poll was in the field for part of the post-thesis revelation period over the weekend, the full backlash/reaction to it could not have been fully incorporated yet.
| 2009 Virginia Gubernatorial Race Polling | ||||||
| Poll | Date | Margin of Error | Sample | Deeds | McDonnell | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling [pdf] | Aug. 28-31, 2009 | +/- 4% | 596 likely voters | 42 | 49 | 9 |
Even still, there are some interesting numbers to take note of in this poll. For starters, McDonnell's 14 point edge in the PPP poll a month ago has been halved and coincidentally, that matches the decrease in McCain voters in the sample from July to August. So not only is McDonnell's lead down to seven (actually Deeds gained more than McDonnell lost), but the composition of this month's sample is down from +11 for McCain in July to +4 in August. And recall, this is a state Obama turned blue in 2008, winning by seven points. The extent to which McCain voters dominate these polls then really drives home the presence of an enthusiasm gap in this race. Republicans have the edge there, but as I stated yesterday, this thesis matter has the potential to help close that gap by activating Democrats and moving independents (who by the way are favoring McDonnell by a 2:1 margin in this poll) into, if not the Deeds column, then into the undecided column.
For the time being, though, this race is in neutral at least according to FHQ's graduated weighted average. The poll did little to move the needle and in fact pulled the average into pretty close alignment with it. The next polls will tell the tale on where this race will be going for the next little bit or the rest of the race.
.png)
[Click to Enlarge]Recent Posts:
2012 Presidential Trial Heats (Clarus Research Group): Obama vs. Gingrich/Huckabee/Palin/Romney
Have the Races Changed in New Jersey and Virginia?
2012 GOP Presidential Primary Poll (Clarus Research Group): Romney Jumps
Monday, August 31, 2009
2012 Presidential Trial Heats (Clarus Research Group): Obama vs. Gingrich/Huckabee/Palin/Romney
Last night we looked at the 2012 Republican primary numbers from the recent Clarus Research Group poll. The same poll that found Mitt Romney doing quite well among Republican respondents in the primary setting also found the former Massachusetts governor matching up against Obama the best among the full national sample.*
...but not by much. The Mike Huckabee/Barack Obama pairing was a near mirror image of the Romney/Obama race (Obama's support against Romney was just one percent shy of the president's against Romney's while the two Republicans' shares remained the same). Before we dig too far in, let's look at the toplines:
.png)
[Click to Enlarge]
For Gingrich, this is the worst showing since the May Public Policy Polling survey (the one that had the most representative sample until the August poll). There really isn't that much to say about the former Speaker. He has been polled among the Big Four throughout 2009, but has yet to measure up to the Huckabee/Palin/Romney group either in the primaries or against the president. That certainly doesn't change here.
.png)
[Click to Enlarge]
And while Huckabee does drop off compared to the PPP poll in the field nearly simultaneously, the former Arkansas governor emerges with something to hang his hat on. Earlier we discussed how this poll had Huckabee as the clear choice of Republican women in the primary race which is noteworthy with a woman in the race. But that doesn't translate once a Democrat is added to the equation. Now, we would expect the gender gap to continue to focus female support behind the Democrat and male support with the Republican in any prospective 2012 match up and that trend is not broken here. However, we do see that the gap is smaller for Huckabee (-20) and Romney (-18) than it is for Gingrich (-34) and Palin (-37).**
.png)
[Click to Enlarge]
Odd as it may seem, this is the continuing trend in this data as of now. Palin is doing worse among women than with men against Obama and has the highest gender gap (relative to the other Republican candidates). And that is striking. What's worse is that the overall gap between Palin and Obama is now wider than it was prior to her resignation. The three August polls conducted pitting the former Alaska governor against Obama, show the governor under 40% and the president above 50%. That wasn't the case after she announced her resignation, but actually having step down (at least at first glance) seems to be the line of demarcation between these poll trends.
.png)
[Click to Enlarge]
Meanwhile, Mitt Romney continues to place, if not the closest to Obama (Huckabee has been consistently closer in the PPP polls.), then second closest. And the former Massachusetts governor has been among (along with Huckabee) the candidates who have been able to minimize the amount of support the president garners in these polls.
The biggest pro and con in all of this 2012 trial heat polling is that one firm (Public Policy Polling) has been doing most of the work. That is good for the sake of comparison across polls, but by the same token is subjecting us to the same house effect over and over again. In other words, we're just missing out on the view from other polling outfits. That's why the Obama/Romney tie in the July Rasmussen poll was so surprising; it followed up the PPP polls that showed Romney close, but struggling to break the 40% barrier. Again, the one thing Romney could hang his hat on there, was that he was keeping the president under 50% in many of those polls. And honestly, that's not a very strong hook and the hat is somewhat heavy.
I still have to caution that this is all extremely early in the 2012 cycle. But the trend among women with Sarah Palin included continues to be a noteworthy statistic across all of these polls.
*Please note that the full national sample size was used in the write up of the Republican primary poll last night. That has been corrected. The Republican portion of the sample was comprised of 353 respondents.
**This figure is calculated as the sum of the deficits among women and men for each candidate against President Obama. For example, in a hypothetical match up between Obama and Minnesota governor Tim Pawlenty, if the president had a 53-37 advantage among women (-16 for Pawlenty), but the governor had a slight advantage among men, say, 44-42 (+2 for Pawlenty), the gap would be -14 (-16+2).
Recent Posts:
Have the Races Changed in New Jersey and Virginia?
2012 GOP Presidential Primary Poll (Clarus Research Group): Romney Jumps
Defense Authorization Bill Amendment Could Affect Primary Timing
...but not by much. The Mike Huckabee/Barack Obama pairing was a near mirror image of the Romney/Obama race (Obama's support against Romney was just one percent shy of the president's against Romney's while the two Republicans' shares remained the same). Before we dig too far in, let's look at the toplines:
Obama: 52%
Gingrich: 34%
Not Sure: 15%
Obama: 48%
Huckabee: 38%
Not Sure: 15%
Obama: 53%
Palin: 34%
Not Sure: 13%
Obama: 47%
Romney: 38%
Not Sure: 15%
Margin of error: +/- 3.1%
Sample: 353 Republican voters
Conducted: August 14-18, 2009
.png)
[Click to Enlarge]For Gingrich, this is the worst showing since the May Public Policy Polling survey (the one that had the most representative sample until the August poll). There really isn't that much to say about the former Speaker. He has been polled among the Big Four throughout 2009, but has yet to measure up to the Huckabee/Palin/Romney group either in the primaries or against the president. That certainly doesn't change here.
.png)
[Click to Enlarge]And while Huckabee does drop off compared to the PPP poll in the field nearly simultaneously, the former Arkansas governor emerges with something to hang his hat on. Earlier we discussed how this poll had Huckabee as the clear choice of Republican women in the primary race which is noteworthy with a woman in the race. But that doesn't translate once a Democrat is added to the equation. Now, we would expect the gender gap to continue to focus female support behind the Democrat and male support with the Republican in any prospective 2012 match up and that trend is not broken here. However, we do see that the gap is smaller for Huckabee (-20) and Romney (-18) than it is for Gingrich (-34) and Palin (-37).**
.png)
[Click to Enlarge]Odd as it may seem, this is the continuing trend in this data as of now. Palin is doing worse among women than with men against Obama and has the highest gender gap (relative to the other Republican candidates). And that is striking. What's worse is that the overall gap between Palin and Obama is now wider than it was prior to her resignation. The three August polls conducted pitting the former Alaska governor against Obama, show the governor under 40% and the president above 50%. That wasn't the case after she announced her resignation, but actually having step down (at least at first glance) seems to be the line of demarcation between these poll trends.
.png)
[Click to Enlarge]Meanwhile, Mitt Romney continues to place, if not the closest to Obama (Huckabee has been consistently closer in the PPP polls.), then second closest. And the former Massachusetts governor has been among (along with Huckabee) the candidates who have been able to minimize the amount of support the president garners in these polls.
The biggest pro and con in all of this 2012 trial heat polling is that one firm (Public Policy Polling) has been doing most of the work. That is good for the sake of comparison across polls, but by the same token is subjecting us to the same house effect over and over again. In other words, we're just missing out on the view from other polling outfits. That's why the Obama/Romney tie in the July Rasmussen poll was so surprising; it followed up the PPP polls that showed Romney close, but struggling to break the 40% barrier. Again, the one thing Romney could hang his hat on there, was that he was keeping the president under 50% in many of those polls. And honestly, that's not a very strong hook and the hat is somewhat heavy.
I still have to caution that this is all extremely early in the 2012 cycle. But the trend among women with Sarah Palin included continues to be a noteworthy statistic across all of these polls.
*Please note that the full national sample size was used in the write up of the Republican primary poll last night. That has been corrected. The Republican portion of the sample was comprised of 353 respondents.
**This figure is calculated as the sum of the deficits among women and men for each candidate against President Obama. For example, in a hypothetical match up between Obama and Minnesota governor Tim Pawlenty, if the president had a 53-37 advantage among women (-16 for Pawlenty), but the governor had a slight advantage among men, say, 44-42 (+2 for Pawlenty), the gap would be -14 (-16+2).
Recent Posts:
Have the Races Changed in New Jersey and Virginia?
2012 GOP Presidential Primary Poll (Clarus Research Group): Romney Jumps
Defense Authorization Bill Amendment Could Affect Primary Timing
Have the Races Changed in New Jersey and Virginia?
[They haven't in the polls with few exceptions.]
As we get ready to usher in the fall campaign once Labor Day passes next week, both gubernatorial races this year are at something of a crossroads. In both cases, the Democrat is trailing and in both cases, the Republican has been faced with some negative news recently. In New Jersey, Chris Christie is weathering the storm of links to the Bush administration as well as a series of personal issues. [Well, that makes it sound like a drug problem or something of that ilk. Speeding tickets and loans to subordinates aren't drug problems, but they don't come free of any negatives.] Further south, in Virginia, Republican Bob McDonnell is being haunted by his own words from twenty years ago, in the form of a Regent University master's thesis.
My first reaction to the McDonnell news was that if Democrats wanted to use the thesis effectively, they would have to be selective with it and not bombard people on the chance that it could trigger a backlash. After all, the Virginia electorate that has been picked up in polls since the June primary has tilted to the Republican end of the spectrum. This news isn't necessarily going to change their minds; it might energize them further. The power of this story, though, is in its narrative capacity. Democrats and the Deeds campaign have been pushing the "this isn't the real McDonnell" card since the spring, but they now have something to hang that on and refer back to ad infinitum. Anytime McDonnell says something that in anyway links back to the thesis, Democrats will pull it into the "that's all part of his blueprint" narrative. And while there is the chance that that also risks a backlash, it is a gamble that could also play well with apathetic Democrats and independents, who have to this point remained on the sidelines in this race*. But to say that that isn't a tightrope act for Democrats and Deeds is a mistake. The degree to which Deeds can find that balance between effectively playing this (and making trouble for McDonnell) or seeming desperate will determine the direction of this race down the home stretch.
[That said, I still want an answer to Jonathan Martin's tweet yesterday (I'm paraphrasing): If the thesis is so damaging, how did oppo researchers miss it in the 2005 attorney general race or any other office McDonnell has run for?]
In New Jersey, the narrative has progressed to its second step (beyond the Bush connection). Instead of the debate being on moderate/not moderate turf, as in Virginia, this one seems to revolve around Christie's judgment (the bent of the news does lately, anyway). So, while Christie maintains a lead in the polls, you can certainly see that the stories have shifted in this race from "throw the bum out"/anti-incumbent stories to "does Christie have the requisite judgment to be governor?" stories. And that isn't a good change in the prevailing winds for the challenger.
Does that mean trouble for the Republicans currently leading the polls in both states? Possibly, but it could end up costing the Democrats if their actions are perceived as desperate. The latter is more likely in Virginia simply because of the underlying partisan composition of New Jersey. Corzine just simply has a cushion (even while trailing) that Deeds does not in Virginia.
A couple of other caveats:
1) Timing. Is this too early for a closing narrative to emerge? If either becomes established, will it be stale by time the waning days of October roll around? The press may be looking for something new by then.
2) Decision-making: I need to check on this in the gubernatorial context, but it is true that in presidential races, most likely voters have made up their minds by around Labor Day. James Campbell would also contend (and has shown) that the polling around that time of the race is also the best indicator of the November election results. I'll have to check on both, but I thought I'd throw both ideas out there. Obviously the presidential race is a bit more high-profile, which hypothetically would mean that voters may wait a little longer in a gubernatorial race.
In any event, these items merit tracking over the next few weeks.
*The Public Policy Polling survey due out of Virginia purportedly shows heightened interest from Democrats versus a month ago (and this poll was in the field before the thesis news broke for the most part). However, McDonnell still has a 2:1 advantage among independents (again, pre-thesis).
Recent Posts:
2012 GOP Presidential Primary Poll (Clarus Research Group): Romney Jumps
Defense Authorization Bill Amendment Could Affect Primary Timing
Nevermind: Democratic Change Commission Meeting Postponed
As we get ready to usher in the fall campaign once Labor Day passes next week, both gubernatorial races this year are at something of a crossroads. In both cases, the Democrat is trailing and in both cases, the Republican has been faced with some negative news recently. In New Jersey, Chris Christie is weathering the storm of links to the Bush administration as well as a series of personal issues. [Well, that makes it sound like a drug problem or something of that ilk. Speeding tickets and loans to subordinates aren't drug problems, but they don't come free of any negatives.] Further south, in Virginia, Republican Bob McDonnell is being haunted by his own words from twenty years ago, in the form of a Regent University master's thesis.
My first reaction to the McDonnell news was that if Democrats wanted to use the thesis effectively, they would have to be selective with it and not bombard people on the chance that it could trigger a backlash. After all, the Virginia electorate that has been picked up in polls since the June primary has tilted to the Republican end of the spectrum. This news isn't necessarily going to change their minds; it might energize them further. The power of this story, though, is in its narrative capacity. Democrats and the Deeds campaign have been pushing the "this isn't the real McDonnell" card since the spring, but they now have something to hang that on and refer back to ad infinitum. Anytime McDonnell says something that in anyway links back to the thesis, Democrats will pull it into the "that's all part of his blueprint" narrative. And while there is the chance that that also risks a backlash, it is a gamble that could also play well with apathetic Democrats and independents, who have to this point remained on the sidelines in this race*. But to say that that isn't a tightrope act for Democrats and Deeds is a mistake. The degree to which Deeds can find that balance between effectively playing this (and making trouble for McDonnell) or seeming desperate will determine the direction of this race down the home stretch.
[That said, I still want an answer to Jonathan Martin's tweet yesterday (I'm paraphrasing): If the thesis is so damaging, how did oppo researchers miss it in the 2005 attorney general race or any other office McDonnell has run for?]
In New Jersey, the narrative has progressed to its second step (beyond the Bush connection). Instead of the debate being on moderate/not moderate turf, as in Virginia, this one seems to revolve around Christie's judgment (the bent of the news does lately, anyway). So, while Christie maintains a lead in the polls, you can certainly see that the stories have shifted in this race from "throw the bum out"/anti-incumbent stories to "does Christie have the requisite judgment to be governor?" stories. And that isn't a good change in the prevailing winds for the challenger.
Does that mean trouble for the Republicans currently leading the polls in both states? Possibly, but it could end up costing the Democrats if their actions are perceived as desperate. The latter is more likely in Virginia simply because of the underlying partisan composition of New Jersey. Corzine just simply has a cushion (even while trailing) that Deeds does not in Virginia.
A couple of other caveats:
1) Timing. Is this too early for a closing narrative to emerge? If either becomes established, will it be stale by time the waning days of October roll around? The press may be looking for something new by then.
2) Decision-making: I need to check on this in the gubernatorial context, but it is true that in presidential races, most likely voters have made up their minds by around Labor Day. James Campbell would also contend (and has shown) that the polling around that time of the race is also the best indicator of the November election results. I'll have to check on both, but I thought I'd throw both ideas out there. Obviously the presidential race is a bit more high-profile, which hypothetically would mean that voters may wait a little longer in a gubernatorial race.
In any event, these items merit tracking over the next few weeks.
*The Public Policy Polling survey due out of Virginia purportedly shows heightened interest from Democrats versus a month ago (and this poll was in the field before the thesis news broke for the most part). However, McDonnell still has a 2:1 advantage among independents (again, pre-thesis).
Recent Posts:
2012 GOP Presidential Primary Poll (Clarus Research Group): Romney Jumps
Defense Authorization Bill Amendment Could Affect Primary Timing
Nevermind: Democratic Change Commission Meeting Postponed
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)