The Electoral College Map (10/8/08)

Debate day, part III brought not only the town hall meeting from Nashville last night, but 19 new polls from 12 different states. Again, not a lot of red to be had, and that is an ominous sign for the McCain campaign given that most of the states represented are battleground states or perceived battlegrounds. Alaska still looks like a gimme for the Arizona senator and traditionally red Indiana is favoring him as well, though not to the level some may have thought entering this election year. There is also some relatively positive news for McCain in North Carolina, where Survey USA shows him up 3 points. The downside to that is that along with last week's ARG poll -- one that found the same margin -- are the only ones since about mid-September to show McCain ahead.

New Polls (Oct. 7)
State	Poll	Margin
Alaska	Rasmussen	+15
California	Survey USA	+16
Colorado	Insider Advantage	+6
Florida	Mason-Dixon/NBC	+2
Indiana	Research 2000	0
Indiana	CNN	+2
Minnesota	Minnesota Public Radio	+14
Nevada	Research 2000	+7
Nevada	Insider Advantage	+2
New Hampshire	CNN	+8
North Carolina	CNN	+1
North Carolina	Survey USA	+3
Ohio	CNN	+3
Ohio	Public Policy Polling	+6
Pennsylvania	Survey USA	+15
Pennsylvania	Rasmussen	+13
Wisconsin	CNN	+8
Wisconsin	Survey USA	+10
Wisconsin	Rasmussen	+10

Well, that's it for McCain and the rest is all Obama. Pennsylvania is rapidly being taken off the table. Double digit margin after double digit margin keep popping up in the polling of the Keystone state. That trend seems to be stretching to New Hampshire and Wisconsin as well. Just yesterday I was thinking about how tightly compact Wisconsin's polling has been -- relative to say, Minnesota -- and now even the Badger state is shifting toward Obama.

Changes (Oct. 7)
State	Before	After
Nevada	Toss Up McCain	Toss Up Obama
Ohio	Toss Up McCain	Toss Up Obama

But the trend goes beyond the states around the line between Obama toss ups and Obama lean states. The recent rise in the polls has also been applied to the closest of states. Nevada and Ohio join Virginia on the blue side of the partisan line. The effect of this cannot be understated. Not only does that provide Obama with an added cushion in terms of how his campaign strategizes about the race, but it pushes him past 300 projected electoral votes. This cushion can certainly be discussed in terms of states, but in actuality it should probably be applied to electoral college votes. At 311, Obama has 41 electoral votes to give while still being able to claim outright victory.

[Click Map to Enlarge]

Obama remains relatively safe -- outside of toss up status -- in states totaling 260 electoral votes, but now has 25 additional votes in the blue with Nevada and Ohio switching over. Again, the discussion has shifted rapidly from one focused on how far McCain could push into Obama territory (Could he pick up Pennsylvania and Michigan, for example.) to one centered on how far down that middle column on the Electoral College Spectrum below Obama can extend. Florida, Indiana and Missouri are right there. And North Carolina is similar to Virginia, but how similar is the question. Geographically speaking, Indiana and Missouri are both in kind of a border region between a group of blue states and another group of red states. But that rule doesn't really apply to Florida. Then again, the Sunshine state is closer than either of the other two in our rankings. Are those realistic "gets" for Obama? Perhaps, but we'll have to see what transpires over this next month to find out.

The Electoral College Spectrum*
HI-4 (7)**	ME-4 (157)	NH-4 (264/278)	MT-3 (158)	LA-9 (67)
VT-3 (10)	WA-11 (168)	CO-9*** (273/274)	ND-3 (155)	KY-8 (58)
RI-4 (14)	IA-7 (175)	VA-13 (286/265)	GA-15 (152)	KS-6 (50)
MD-10 (24)	OR-7 (182)	NV-5 (291/252)	TX-34 (137)	TN-11 (44)
DE-3 (27)	NJ-15 (197)	OH-20 (311/247)	MS-6 (103)	NE-5 (33)
NY-31 (58)	MN-10 (207)	FL-27 (338/227)	AK-3 (97)	AL-9 (28)
IL-21 (79)	WI-10 (217)	IN-11 (349/200)	AR-6 (94)	WY-3 (19)
CT-7 (86)	PA-21 (238)	MO-11 (360/189)	SC-8 (88)	OK-7 (16)
MA-12 (98)	NM-5 (243)	NC-15 (375/178)	AZ-10 (80)	ID-4 (9)
CA-55 (153)	MI-17 (260)	WV-5 (163)	SD-3 (70)	UT-5 (5)
*Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. **The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, McCain won all the states up to and including New Hampshire (all Obama's toss up states), he would have 278 electoral votes. Both candidates numbers are only totaled through their rival's toss up states. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and McCain's is on the right in italics. ***Colorado is the state where Obama crosses (or McCain would cross) the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. It is currently favoring Obama, thus the blue text in that cell.

Finally, the Watch List is only slightly different today than it was yesterday. Obviously, Nevada and Ohio are still close enough to be vulnerable for Obama. The momentum, however, is certainly with the Illinois senator. The big news is that Pennsylvania is off the list. The Keystone state has moved outside of the 3-5 point range. With the graduated average margin there now above five, Pennsylvania has even jumped New Mexico above on the Spectrum. Was McCain's Michigan move last week designed to be more aggressive in Pennsylvania? If so, it isn't working. Not yet at least. Those resources may be better utilized in states like Virginia and Florida.

The Watch List*
State	Switch
Florida	from Toss Up McCain	to Toss Up Obama
Iowa	from Strong Obama	to Obama lean
Michigan	from Obama lean	to Toss Up Obama
Nevada	from Toss Up Obama	to Toss Up McCain
New Hampshire	from Toss Up Obama	to Obama lean
New Jersey	from Obama lean	to Strong Obama
North Carolina	from Toss Up McCain	to McCain lean
North Dakota	from Strong McCain	to McCain lean
Ohio	from Toss Up Obama	to Toss Up McCain
Oregon	from Obama lean	to Strong Obama
Virginia	from Toss Up Obama	to Toss Up McCain
Washington	from Strong Obama	to Obama lean
*Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

With last night's debate not really changing much, McCain is seeminly up against it in this race. The media is set to jump on any move toward negativity that the campaign makes and with just one more debate left, McCain is running out of opportunites to make the case that Obama is the risky choice. Then again, Obama only seems to be helping the combat that charge in these debates.


Recent Posts:
Live Blog and Open Thread: 2nd Presidential Debate: Town Hall Meeting

The Electoral College Map (10/7/08), Part II: The Changes

The Electoral College Map (10/7/08)

Live Blog and Open Thread: 2nd Presidential Debate: Town Hall Meeting

11:05pm: Folks, I'm off to plug in a few straggling polls to the data set for the electoral college. I'll be back mid-morning with an update. The comments section remains open, but I just don't think we witnessed anything tonight that is going to shake this race up in any noticeable way.

10:51pm: Obama is still working the room. Did McCain head off to a Palin-type rally like the Alaska governor attended after last week's vice presidential debate in St. Louis?

10:41pm: Wrap up. Well, if you were looking for a game changer, this wasn't it. I think McCain was certainly in his element tonight. But, in the end, he just didn't do enough to turn this thing around. I will say this: He did avoid the angry trap, but his trademark sarcasm reared its head a couple of times. Not to the extent that it did in those back and forths with Romney in the winter, but still it was there. McCain stressed a steady hand, and I thought Obama's performance was just that. Does a debate performance project White House success? Absolutely not, but that was an ironic twist to this: that Obama's performance was steady. McCain has left the building but Obama remains. He's talking with the guy who asked the Israel question now, the military vet. This is strange. Obama is still there working the crowd, but McCain has literally left the building. C-SPAN even found it necessary to come on and announce that they weren't following Obama around on purpose. Indeed.

10:37pm: Back on C-SPAN Brokaw's mike is still on. He is overheard saying, "You see what I was up against," no doubt referring to the timing issues that plagued this debate.

10:34pm: McCain has the last word and stresses the need for a steady hand. Both candidates block Brokaw's teleprompter trying to shake hands as the moderator tries to wrap things up. A light moment to end the debate; an otherwise tame affair. Brian Williams just called past town halls "boisterous." This one didn't pass that bar. I assume he was referring to 1992 or the infamous "chest bump" debate of 2000. Well, that's what George W. Bush thought Gore might do. If you haven't seen it, google, "Debating Our Destiny" and watch PBS's documentary on past debates. What am I? I'm the blogger here. Above is that link.

10:29pm: Last question: "What don't you know and how will you learn it?" Obama treats it like a closing statement and leans on the biographical section of his stump speech, stressing opportunity and change. McCain asks what will happen here and abroad? Read: Obama is a risky choice. And he, too, moves into the biography segment of his stump speech. But at least he sort of answered the question.

10:25pm: From the audience: If Iran attacks Israel will you commit troops to defend them? McCain: Pressure Iran with joint sanctions from the Allies. Obama: Focuses on a nuclear Iran. But says military options are not off the table. But he doesn't specify whether he's talking about the questioner's particular hypothetical.

10:23pm: Brokaw: Is Russia still the Evil Empire under Putin? McCain: Maybe. Can't say yes or no. A pretty good answer.

10:19pm: On to Russia. Again with the KGB Putin line? Alliances against Russia sounds a bit like the Cold War. Obama: Protecting former Soviet satellites is important. Was Poland a Soviet satellite? Now, it was under communist control, but was it a satellite?

10:18pm: A lot has been made of Obama saying, "he's absolutely right" about McCain in the first debate, but Obama McCain just said Obama was right on Afghanistan.

10:16pm: And now a Brokaw follow up. This time on Afghanistan. "Briefly, if you can," Brokaw adds. British commander: an acceptable dictator. Obama stresses democracy.

10:13pm: And we're bending the rules now on time. A follow up. Obama asks for one and McCain calls for equal time. Obama goes after McCain on "Bomb, bomb, bomb. Bomb, bomb Iran," as an example of McCain not "speaking softy and carrying a big stick." This bickering is not a positive here. Who will get the blame if this is a highlight of the debate? Obama asked for the follow up, but McCain gets the last word.

10:10pm: McCain has two heroes. First, Reagan and now Teddy Roosevelt. And he moves into an attack on Obama announcing he'd attack Pakistan. Like the first debate, "I've been there." This time to Waziristan.

10:08pm: Ooh, Pakistan. And it cuts right to the heart of an Obama statement on going in to get terrorists there. This should be good.

10:06pm: McCain is going the experience route here. Calling for a steady hand and judgment and that Obama is a risk for decisions like the withdrawal call, pre-surge.

10:04pm: Brokaw: Let's see if we can figure out the Obama doctrine or the McCain doctrine.

...for intervening in humanitarian causes when US security is not at stake.

10:00pm: Keeping the world peace. Does the economic situation affect the US's ability to do this? Well, Obama doesn't understand foreign policy according to McCain. "We don't have time for on the job training." Obama admits he doesn't understand.

...why the US invaded a country that wasn't a part of 9-11. Clever. Also clever? Pivoting to the amount of money being spent in Iraq and how that affects the US domestically.

9:58pm: In my best Dwight Schrutte voice: Question. Why is it Sarah Palin was made fun of on SNL the other night for cutting off the Gs on -ing words in last week's debate? Obama does it too. I may have answered my question already. Ha!

9:55pm: Health care, privilege, right or responsibility? McCain leans toward people having the freedom to choose what they want. Obama says it is a right.

9:53pm: McCain plays the "He will fine you" game. Arizona and Tennessee are neighbors now? "If you cross over the state line" and like what's offered in Arizona and not Tennessee...

9:50pm: Next question: health care coverage and costs. I crunched numbers all weekend, but I got to catch enough of the news to catch this "He giveth with one hand and taketh with the other" line from Obama on what he calls McCain's plan to tax this stuff.

9:48pm: "You know who voted for that. That one," motioning to Obama. Oh, and it was a Bush plan on an energy bill loaded with goodies. That "that one" part will be analyzed later in the MSM. This all sounds like Senate inside baseball to me.

9:47pm: Brokaw again on the time issue. This will be a long one. They have to make up for not doing a series of these over the summer, right?

9:46pm: But Obama also goes after McCain on drilling.

9:44pm: On to climate change. In this corner, nuclear. McCain has been on a ship with nuclear power and insists it is safe. In that corner, opportunity. Obama touts green jobs.

9:42pm: McCain is energized and sharp here in referring back to one of the earlier questioners.

9:40pm: "It's not that hard to fix Social Security," says McCain. Of course that followed, "I'll answer the question." Ah, another commission to solve problems.

9:37pm: Second internet question? Entitlements (social security and Medicare). Brokaw adds to the question by asking if action is possible within two years. Obama doesn't sign on to the two year thing, but does say he will address it in his first term. He had better hope the Democrats retain control of Congress in 2010 if he wins. Otherwise the first term thing will be tough. It will be even if the Dems hold control in 2010, perhaps.

9:35pm: Has McCain not learned from his Republican primary debates? That sarcasm never served him well. Obama is now proposing a tax increase and is a protectionist. Well, we'll get to that McCain promises.

9:30pm: Obama uses 9-11 to talk about a call to service in the US. Who bet on Obama bringing up 9-11 first? Whoever it was is not in the midst of an economic crisis anymore.

9:28pm: Ooh, the first internet question.

...from a 78 year old. Awesome!

Again with the projector. By the end of the night this will be the most famous planetarium projector in the world. This planetarium will be well off after this.

9:27pm: Alright. No split screens on C-SPAN. I'm off to HD land.

9:25pm: McCain gets the first crack at the first year priorities follow up for discussion time. He goes with energy and health care. Obama? Energy? Check. That one's tops. And education. And "our records"? Obama pivots to a discussion on taxes. I think he's gone over a minute here. Brokaw thinks so too.

9:22pm: "Most liberal big spender." Now there it is. I really thought Palin would be the one to do it, but hey here it is. And examples: a projector for a Chicago planetarium.

9:21pm: Scratch that. Cynicism is alright. McCain used it too. Maybe I'm too PC. Uh oh.

9:20pm: Twenty minutes in, I've got to say both candidates like this format.

9:18pm: How can we trust either of you to deal with the economy? Obama wades into the firestorm first. "I understand your frustration and cynicism." I would have steered clear of that last one. But I'm typing on a computer now, not in front of those folks.

9:16pm: Worse before it gets better? Obama says no and that revamping the regulation regime is a must. McCain? "Depends on what we do." Clever way to bring up this "risky choice argument" that the McCain campaign has been making about Obama.

9:14pm: Obama lets it go to directly address the questioner. Or not. Here comes Obama's side on the Fannie/Freddie charge from McCain. "I need to correct" McCain..."not surprisingly." Not surprisingly, Obama touts the deregulation charge. And we've traded barbs on Fannie/Freddie. McCain's lobbyist consultants have ties as well.

9:12pm: I'll be interested to see if Obama responds to McCain bring up the campaign suspension. Obama and his cronies? Obama is smiling.

9:10pm: There may be a dead horse in the room in Nashville. This "fundamentals" thing has been run into the ground. But hey, for good reason, it could be argued.

9:08pm: How are you not able to answer that question (on who to choose to replace Paulson in the Treasury)? And if not answer it, at least not pause like that. Meg Whitman? Isn't she going to run for governor in California?

9:08pm: Stylistically McCain is already in his element on this first question.

9:06pm: McCain subtly (or not so subtly) jabs at Obama for not appearing at any town halls over the summer.

9:03pm: Good start for McCain. He looked at Obama when he shook his hand. Check that one off the list. I'm looking at you MSM.

9:01pm: And we're off!

8:29pm: Alright folks, we are just a little over half an hour away from showtime in Nashville. [No, I'm not there.] I've been asked several times since the VP debate Thursday night if I thought we would see a "different" McCain at tonight's debate. I have no idea and I certainly don't think that it will be "angry" McCain if he does try to roll out -- Al Gore style, mind you -- an alternate debate persona. However, one thing McCain must do is find a way to shift this race in some meaningful way toward him. But with Obama up in the polls, McCain is back in the role of underdog (not that he wasn't there during the first debate) and that is a role he has relished in his time running for president. For Obama, the mantra is "steady as she goes," but with an audience asking questions the dynamic may be a bit different. One thing to keep in mind about tonight's proceedings is that there are no follow up questions from the audience or the moderator. I'm assuming that includes that candidates as well.

My goal? I'll be trying to extend my streak of non-booing live blogs to two (I kid, CBSmith.). I may even try to embed some of the footage here to go along with my comments. We'll see if I can actually pull that off. As always, I'll be watching on C-SPAN. I doubt we'll be getting the full time split screen in the town hall format. [I also doubt I'll be getting that royalty check from C-SPAN.]

Also, feel free to follow along and drop comments along the way.


Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (10/7/08), Part II: The Changes

The Electoral College Map (10/7/08)

The Electoral College Map (10/6/08)

The Electoral College Map (10/7/08), Part II: The Changes

New Methodology:

There would have been a lot packed into one post if I would have included this discussion in with the other pre-change version of the map for yesterday. However, you can either scroll down (if you are on the main page) or click here to compare how things were different pre- and post-change.

To reiterate a point made earlier today, FHQ, in an attempt make our map more reflective of the current dynamics of the race for the presidency has made a slight alteration to its underlying statistical formula. Long story short, we have changed the weighting that is applied to all the past polls (back to Super Tuesday) in our data set. For a broader discussion of this change please see this link.

Changes (Oct. 6)
State	Before	After
Iowa*	Obama lean	Strong Obama
Michigan*	Toss Up Obama	Obama lean
Nevada	Toss Up Obama	Toss Up McCain
North Carolina	McCain lean	Toss Up McCain
North Dakota*	McCain lean	Strong McCain
Pennsylvania*	Toss Up Obama	Obama lean
Virginia	Toss Up McCain	Toss Up Obama
*These states changed categories based on a slight change to FHQ's methodology. You can read more about that shift here.

Alright, let's start with the basics. How does the map change given the change to the methodology? Given yesterday's polling, North Carolina and Virginia still would have shifted into the McCain toss up and Obama toss up categories respectively. However, there several other noticeable shifts as well that are attributable to our decision on the averaging formula. Most notably, both Michigan and Pennsylvania move into the Obama lean category. Iowa, too, moves further into Obama territory, crossing the lean/strong threshold. But McCain is not without gains in this. Nevada, which had just recently shifted over into the Obama toss up category is back on the McCain side of the partisan line. And North Dakota shifts into the strong McCain area. All of these are pretty much no-brainers given recent polling. Nevada is perhaps surprising, but we have seen throughout this cycle an oscillation between +5 for McCain to +5 for Obama in the Silver state. There are some exceptions, but that is the basic trend. The one notable exception is the first poll in our time frame from Nevada. Obama had an early 12 point margin in a February Rasmussen poll and when that one is weighted appropriately, the Illinois senator lost some of the statistical advantage he had in the state. The remaining polling pretty much cancels each other out and give McCain a minutely sized edge there.

[Click Map to Enlarge]

But the real change is in the perception of the race with Michigan and Pennsylvania in the Obama lean category. With that change Obama is now relatively safe in states totaling 260 electoral votes and as you'll see just below on the Watch List, New Hampshire is also close to joining that group as well. The two comparable categories for John McCain add up to only 163 electoral votes.

The Electoral College Spectrum*
HI-4 (7)**	ME-4 (157)	NH-4 (264/278)	MT-3 (158)	LA-9 (67)
VT-3 (10)	WA-11 (168)	CO-9*** (273/274)	ND-3 (155)	KY-8 (58)
RI-4 (14)	IA-7 (175)	VA-13 (286/265)	GA-15 (152)	KS-6 (50)
MD-10 (24)	OR-7 (182)	OH-20 (306/252)	TX-34 (137)	TN-11 (44)
DE-3 (27)	NJ-15 (197)	NV-5 (311/232)	MS-6 (103)	NE-5 (33)
NY-31 (58)	MN-10 (207)	FL-27 (338/227)	AK-3 (97)	AL-9 (28)
IL-21 (79)	WI-10 (217)	MO-11 (349/200)	AR-6 (94)	WY-3 (19)
CT-7 (86)	NM-5 (222)	IN-11 (360/189)	SC-8 (88)	OK-7 (16)
MA-12 (98)	PA-21 (243)	NC-15 (375/178)	AZ-10 (80)	ID-4 (9)
CA-55 (153)	MI-17 (260)	WV-5 (163)	SD-3 (70)	UT-5 (5)
*Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. **The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, McCain won all the states up to and including New Hampshire (all Obama's toss up states), he would have 278 electoral votes. Both candidates numbers are only totaled through their rival's toss up states. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and McCain's is on the right in italics. ***Colorado is the state where Obama crosses (or McCain would cross) the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. It is currently favoring Obama, thus the blue text in that cell.

This all works out quite well in terms of the Electoral College Spectrum. The states still in play are conveniently contained within the middle column there. But there is some differentiation within that group as well. New Hampshire is within range of switching into the Obama lean category, Colorado has and average above two points and Virginia is within range of crossing back over into the McCain toss up area. Once you cross the partisan line into the pink, McCain toss up states, there is now a line that can be drawn between Florida and Missouri. Florida, Nevada and Ohio are all in danger of turning blue, while Indiana and Missouri are in positions comparable to Colorado on the Obama side of the ledger. Finally, North Carolina is in a similar position as New Hampshire, competitive, but not as competitive as these other states.

The Watch List*
State	Switch
Florida	from Toss Up McCain	to Toss Up Obama
Iowa	from Strong Obama	to Obama lean
Michigan	from Obama lean	to Toss Up Obama
Nevada	from Toss Up McCain	to Toss Up Obama
New Hampshire	from Toss Up Obama	to Obama lean
New Jersey	from Obama lean	to Strong Obama
North Carolina	from Toss Up McCain	to McCain lean
North Dakota	from Strong McCain	to McCain lean
Ohio	from Toss Up McCain	to Toss Up Obama
Oregon	from Obama lean	to Strong Obama
Pennsylvania	from Obama lean	to Toss Up Obama
Virginia	from Toss Up Obama	to Toss Up McCain
Washington	from Strong Obama	to Obama lean
*Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

Aside from Michigan and Pennsylvania, Florida is the other big story here. The Sunshine state had moved in a middle ground area within the McCain toss up category, but was seemingly stuck there. When the past polls are weighted based on when they were conducted, Florida jumps into the discussion with Nevada, Ohio and Virginia; states that could switch sides of the partisan line with any new poll released. Presidential campaigns on both sides are used to playing some form of offense or defense in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, but McCain seemingly had Florida nailed down over the summer. But that's not the case anymore. Playing defense in Florida and Ohio -- not to mention Virginia -- in an unfriendly political environment makes it even tougher to go on the offensive in places like Pennsylvania and...

...Michigan.

Put very simply, McCain is in trouble and has to devise a formula that can somehow reverse the trend toward Obama. Over the weekend and into the beginning part of this week, it looks like the campaign has decided to go negative to bring Obama down, but hopefully not bring themselves down too far in the process. The political science literature tells us that negative attacks bring both sides down, but the aggressor/underdog has to hope that the fall is much greater for opposition. That seems to be McCain's strategy now and, though, we don't have a full picture of this given the lag time inherent in polling, we do know that the polling out thus far this week has continued to move toward Obama. That is the context in which the debate will be held this evening. McCain will have to be aggressive, but as Rob notes in the comments, the town hall format is not a particular conducive format for an attack.


Speaking of debates, I'll be back later this evening to provide insta-analysis as well as discuss the events as they happen and maybe even afterward.


Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (10/7/08)

The Electoral College Map (10/6/08)

The Electoral College Map (10/5/08)

The Electoral College Map (10/7/08)

First, let's discuss Monday's polling changes in terms of how they would look under the original methodology and then we'll compare and contrast with how things look under the new graduated weighted average.

Old Methodology:

With 13 new polls out in 10 states -- eight of which are or have become toss ups -- Monday there certainly the potential for a shake up to our map and the electoral vote distribution. As has become apparent since the Wall Street meltdown, Obama is now ahead, not just nationally, but in the states where the battle for the White House is being most hotly contested. If the polls below are indicative of how votes will be cast on November 4, then Obama is in good shape. Polling leads in Colorado, Florida, Missouri, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Virginia give the Illinois senator a number of paths to 270. The Rasmussen poll of Ohio is the only exception to the rule, but even that poll was countered by a 6 point margin in the ABC/Washington Post poll of the Buckeye state.

New Polls (Oct. 6)
State	Poll	Margin
Colorado	Rasmussen/FOX	+6
Florida	Rasmussen/FOX	+7
Georgia	Research 2000/Daily Kos	+7
Missouri	Rasmussen/FOX	+3
New Hampshire	Survey USA	+13
New Mexico	Albuquerque Journal	+5
North Carolina	Public Policy Polling	+6
Ohio	ABC/Washington Post	+6
Ohio	Rasmussen/FOX	+1
Pennsylvania	Muhlenberg College	+11
Virginia	Suffolk	+12
Virginia	Survey USA	+10
Virginia	Rasmussen/FOX	+2

And some of these margins are particularly large in view of polling in some of these states just more than a month ago, prior to the conventions. McCain got the last word at his convention, but the staying power of that bounce subsided once the Lehman collapse and other financial sector issues came to the fore.

Changes (Oct. 6)
State	Before	After
North Carolina	McCain lean	Toss Up McCain
Virginia	Toss Up McCain	Toss Up Obama

The result is a slow progression toward Obama in the toss ups and marginally competitive lean states. That lean state movement is mostly on the blue side but North Carolina has now jumped back into the toss up category based on a string [Yes, string...] of Obama-favorable polls in the Tar Heel state. Virginia continues to work its way through the statistical noise in our formula and has once again shifted between toss up categories; this time on the Obama side of the partisan line.

[Click Map to Enlarge]

With Virginia rejoining Nevada on the blue side of the line, Obama's electoral vote lead is now at 291-247. And those 15 North Carolina electoral votes are now back on the table in the toss up McCain area. More importantly, though, Obama once again has a two state cushion with which to work. And obviously that goes back the paths to which we were referring just a moment ago. The Illinois senator has options that McCain just does not at this point. Obama can lose both Nevada and Virginia and still win.

The Electoral College Spectrum*
HI-4 (7)**	ME-4 (157)	NH-4 (264/278)	ND-3 (160)	KS-6 (64)
VT-3 (10)	WA-11 (168)	CO-9*** (273/274)	WV-5 (157)	AR-6 (58)
RI-4 (14)	IA-7 (175)	VA-13 (286/265)	TX-34 (152)	NE-5 (52)
IL-21 (35)	OR-7 (182)	NV-5 (291/252)	GA-15 (118)	TN-11 (47)
MD-10 (45)	MN-10 (192)	OH-20 (311/247)	AK-3 (115)	KY-8 (36)
DE-3 (48)	NJ-15 (207)	FL-27 (338/227)	MS-6 (100)	AL-9 (28)
CT-7 (55)	WI-10 (217)	IN-11 (349/200)	SC-8 (94)	WY-3 (19)
NY-31 (86)	NM-5 (222)	MO-11 (360/189)	SD-3 (86)	ID-4 (16)
CA-55 (141)	MI-17 (239/316)	NC-15 (375/178)	AZ-10 (83)	OK-7 (12)
MA-12 (153)	PA-21 (260/299)	MT-3 (163)	LA-9 (73)	UT-5 (5)
*Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. **The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, McCain won all the states up to and including Pennsylvania (all Obama's toss up states, but Michigan), he would have 299 electoral votes. Both candidates numbers are only totaled through their rival's toss up states. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and McCain's is on the right in italics. ***Colorado is the state where Obama crosses (or McCain would cross) the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. It is currently favoring Obama, thus the blue text in that cell.

That tenuous grasp Obama has on both those states is highlighted by the presence of each on the Watch List. Even though both are currently favoring Obama, each is within striking distance for McCain. But with more and more polling coming out indicating movement toward Obama, that distance is increasing with each day. And now, with the momentum behind Obama, the playing field has shifted away from those light blue states -- the ones we talked about Obama having to defend just a couple of weeks ago -- toward the pink states on the Electoral College Spectrum above.

The Watch List*
State	Switch
Iowa	from Obama lean	to Strong Obama
Michigan	from Toss Up Obama	to Obama lean
Minnesota	from Obama lean	to Strong Obama
Missouri	from Toss Up McCain	to McCain lean
Nevada	from Toss Up Obama	to Toss Up McCain
North Carolina	from Toss Up McCain	to McCain lean
Ohio	from Toss Up McCain	to Toss Up Obama
Oregon	from Obama lean	to Strong Obama
Pennsylvania	from Toss Up Obama	to Obama lean
Texas	from Strong McCain	to McCain lean
Virginia	from Toss Up Obama	to Toss Up McCain
Washington	from Strong Obama	to Obama lean
*Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

Please see here for the version of the breakdown with the methodological changes alluded to above.


Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (10/6/08)

The Electoral College Map (10/5/08)

The Electoral College Map (10/4/08)

Frequently Asked Questions: Electoral College Analysis

What data are you using to differentiate between states?

FHQ uses all state-level, trial-heat polls in its averages for each state. We use all the polls available to us since Super Tuesday, when the race for the Democratic nomination officially became a two person race; one with two seemingly evenly matched candidates. The argument can be made that Obama was even in the race following his Iowa victory, but did not fully quash the "flash in the pan" argument until after the split of the contests on February 5.

Also, I use only the polls that avoid the selection bias inherent in internet-based polls or mail-in polls. As such, the three waves of Zogby Interactive polls are excluded as are the mail-in Columbus Dispatch polls.

Finally, the data used at this stage in the game is the data attendant to the "likely" voter samples. With a month to go, those sample are more accurate than they would have been only a couple of months ago. Also, in the event that a polling firm posts two different versions of a poll based on whether third party candidates are included, it is FHQ's policy to take the version with those candidates on the sample ballot.

Why use those past polls at all?

Indeed, why not just use the most recent poll or polls like everyone else? Well, if I'm just doing what everyone else is doing, why even do it? I can quit now and go look at what Pollster or Real Clear Politics, to name just a couple, have to say on the matter. That's part of the reasoning, but the main reason for the inclusion of past polls is to avoid the volatility of polling. FHQ doesn't want fluctuation for the sake of fluctuation. If one poll is an outlier, fine, but that one poll should not be able to fundamentally shift the average and the projected outcome of any given state. The past polls are included because they represent the feelings of a group of respondents at a particular point in the race. Those feelings may be latent in the current environment, but in FHQ's estimation, should be accounted for in some way, shape or form. If the McCain campaign were able to effective make Jeremiah Wright an issue again, we could return to some degree to the polling distribution of that period. Will that happen? Maybe, maybe not, but that will be controlled for nonetheless.

How do you determine which state goes go into which categories on your map?

Early on in this process, it was simply a matter of averaging the polling data we had at our disposal. But as new polling data emerged, the older data served as an anchor on trends of the race -- at that time in the midst of the Democratic nomination battle. From May through the close of the nominating phase of the race, FHQ took the average of a state's polls, but discounted all but the three most recent polls. Following Clinton's withdrawal from the race, we took the opportunity to tweak that yet again, discounting all but the single most recent poll in a given state. The goal then was to make the average more responsive to developing trends in the race, but not responsive to the point that a single poll fundamentally shifted the outlook in a state.

That responsiveness balance is an important element here. Lately, as the polls have trended toward Obama, FHQ's averages have stagnated, moving very little in the face of the Obama flavor to the polls out in the wake of the economic situation on Wall Street. So we have once again fine-tuned our formula in the hopes of being responsive to a new direction in the race, but not simply responsive to one potentially outlier poll.

As I said in Saturday's electoral college post, our method of averaging serves us well in most states, but the exceptions are potentially consequential to the race for the White House. If you look at the Electoral College Spectrum, for example, that rank ordering of the states seems about right. The underlying averages in states like Florida, Minnesota and North Carolina, though, place them in positions outside of where the current trend would likely place them. At issue is the weighting formula for all the past polls backing up to Super Tuesday. All but the most recent poll had been discounted at the same rate and that meant that polls in March were treated the same as polls in September. Under the old configuration, that most recent poll counted as two-thirds of the average and all the other polls, treated with a blanket discount rate, accounted for the remaining one-third.

How exactly are you weighting those past polls?

As I explained above, FHQ's practice has been to discount each poll at the same rate. However, that is likely causing problems for the averages in some states. There is, then, a need to re-examine those weights specifically. The method we have settled on is to use what we are calling a graduated weighted average. And what that does is to discount polls in February at a level greater than more recent polls from August or September.

So, how exactly is FHQ weighting those past polls? The first step was to determine how many days there will have been between Super Tuesday (February 5) and election day (November 4). There are 273 days counting November 4, but that number won't be useful until that actual day. The real point of that determination is to assign a number to each date in between. February 6, then, was day one and yesterday, October 6, was day number 244. To determine the weight, the median point at which a poll was in the field, is used as the numerator while the day we are currently in -- today's numbers reflect yesterday's changes, so 244 -- is the denominator. That equation gives us the weight of any given poll. The poll numbers on that day are then multiplied by that weight.

However, there is one more twist I'll add to this. The effect this change has is only at the margins. Why? Well, there are a couple of things happening here. First, the graduated weighting essentially averages out to the blanket weight applied to all polls before. There are differences, but they are minimal in most cases. The other, related issue is that the relative weight of the most recent poll shrinks after the reweighting of the other polls. The blanket discount rate on past polls basically cut each past poll's value in half. Now that polling frequency has increased, though, there are a lot more polls that are at greater than 80% value. That threatens the preeminent position of the most recent poll. It is too much of an anchor on that poll. To confront this problem, and to give the most recent poll a little more oomph, we cut the weights in half. Relative to each other, then, the past polls are treated with the same basic weight they had before, but relative to the most recent poll they have been minimized.

Why are the thresholds between categories on the map where they are?

For much of this process, the threshold between a strong state for either candidate and a lean state was arbitrarily set at a 10 point margin. Likewise the margin separating a lean state from a toss up state was 5 points. However, as we have approached election day, it has obviously become more difficult for the candidates to make up enough ground to, if not overtake the other candidate in a state, become competitive there. In a nod to that fact, the thresholds were dropped to 9 points and 4 points, respectively, following the first debate. After the final debate, with just less than three weeks left in the race, the threshold will be dropped again to three points between the toss up and lean states. At that point, it probably will not be necessary to discuss the race in terms of three categories. It will be a question of which states are close and which states aren't then. However, FHQ will evaluate where the potential breaking point is between the lean states and the strong states at that point. It may not be necessary to talk about lean states at that point, but that distinction does add an element of clarity to how we perceive all the states in relation to each other.

The Electoral College Map (10/6/08)

Another slow weekend poll release, but at least Sunday's new polls were in states that are on or have recently been on our Watch List (states closest to switching categories or sides according to our average). Put very simply, Minnesota is all over the place. Within the last week, CNN has it at +12 Obama, Survey USA at +1 McCain and now the Minneapolis Star Tribune has it at Obama +18. So which is it and can we believe any of those polls anyway?

Throughout the last month or two Minnesota has been the topic of conversation in the comments sections of these electoral college posts here at FHQ. That is largely attributable to the erratic nature of the polling in the North Star state. The Survey USA poll is the first to show a McCain lead since March, but polling had shown a range from around 0 to the mid- to upper teens across the entire year's polling in the state before that. Now, why is it so hard to poll Minnesota? Well, part of it has to do with election day registration. If there isn't a filter question (or series of questions) in the survey that asks the likelihood of someone both registering and voting on election day, then those folks don't count as registered and they obviously don't count as likely voters. Some of the electorate is potentially being missed then. But which poll is closer to right? The truth, as our custom around here may suggest, is somewhere in the middle. Minnesota looks to have tightened some, but we are beginning to get some information that indicates the North Star state is following the national polls in that it is trending toward Obama. But by 12 to 18 points? Probably not, but it does indicate that the state is fairly strong for Obama at the moment.

New Polls (Oct. 5)
State	Poll	Margin
Colorado	Mason-Dixon	0
Minnesota	Star Tribune	+18
Ohio	Columbus Dispatch	+7

Outside of Minnesota, there were also new polls out in Colorado and Ohio. Ohio is very much tracking along the same lines as the national polls. But Colorado, after having a few polls in the wake of the Lehman collapse favor Obama at levels outside the margin of error, has reverted to a margin that, while it still leans toward Obama, is certainly tighter than in some of the other toss up states. And that process continues with the Mason-Dixon poll showing the race in a dead heat.

[Click Map to Enlarge]

But back to Ohio for a moment. The Columbus Dispatch poll, like other recent polls out of the Buckeye state, indicates a mid-single digit lead for Obama. [It should be noted that this poll is a mail in poll which comes with some potential issues, but that figure is in line with some of the other polling that has emerged from Ohio in the last week or two.] Another pretty good Obama result and Ohio still doesn't turn blue? No, but it is really close now. [Hey, weren't you supposed to be making some changes to address this lack of responsiveness?*] But close doesn't count, does it? For now then, Ohio stays in the McCain toss up area and the electoral college vote distribution remains unchanged from yesterday, 278-260 in favor of Obama.

The Electoral College Spectrum*
HI-4 (7)**	ME-4 (157)	NH-4 (264/278)	ND-3 (160)	KS-6 (64)
VT-3 (10)	WA-11 (168)	CO-9*** (273/274)	WV-5 (157)	AR-6 (58)
RI-4 (14)	IA-7 (175)	NV-5 (278/265)	TX-34 (152)	NE-5 (52)
IL-21 (35)	OR-7 (182)	OH-20 (298/260)	GA-15 (118)	TN-11 (47)
MD-10 (45)	MN-10 (192)	VA-13 (311/240)	AK-3 (115)	KY-8 (36)
DE-3 (48)	NJ-15 (207)	FL-27 (338/227)	MS-6 (100)	AL-9 (28)
CT-7 (55)	WI-10 (217)	IN-11 (349/200)	SC-8 (94)	WY-3 (19)
NY-31 (86)	NM-5 (222)	MO-11 (360/189)	SD-3 (86)	ID-4 (16)
CA-55 (141)	MI-17 (239/316)	NC-15 (178)	AZ-10 (83)	OK-7 (12)
MA-12 (153)	PA-21 (260/299)	MT-3 (163)	LA-9 (73)	UT-5 (5)
*Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. **The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, McCain won all the states up to and including Pennsylvania (all Obama's toss up states, but Michigan), he would have 299 electoral votes. Both candidates numbers are only totaled through their rival's toss up states. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and McCain's is on the right in italics. ***Colorado is the state where Obama crosses (or McCain would cross) the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. It is currently favoring Obama, thus the blue text in that cell.

The new Minnesota poll also has the effect of moving it back on to the Watch List, within a point of moving into the strong Obama category. That polls also vaults the North Star state above New Jersey on the Electoral College Spectrum. In both cases, Minnesota is the only change. Colorado is still at the center of the struggle. In its current position as the victory line, the Centennial state puts Obama over 270 electoral votes and would put McCain over if the Arizona senator was able to hold on to the states in shades of red and pick up Nevada. Even though that tie in the Mason-Dixon poll of Colorado is shows a tie race, if McCain were to win it and not Nevada, that would get the race to a 269-269 tie in the electoral college. And that tiebreaker doesn't look too good if you put any stock in any of the House election projections.

The Watch List*
State	Switch
Iowa	from Obama lean	to Strong Obama
Michigan	from Toss Up Obama	to Obama lean
Minnesota	from Obama lean	to Strong Obama
Missouri	from Toss Up McCain	to McCain lean
Nevada	from Toss Up Obama	to Toss Up McCain
North Carolina	from McCain lean	to Toss Up McCain
Ohio	from Toss Up McCain	to Toss Up Obama
Oregon	from Obama lean	to Strong Obama
Pennsylvania	from Toss Up Obama	to Obama lean
Texas	from Strong McCain	to McCain lean
Virginia	from Toss Up McCain	to Toss Up Obama
Washington	from Strong Obama	to Obama lean
*Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

On the Watch List, this is still very much a Nevada, Ohio and Virginia discussion. Those states are the ones closest to switching sides of the partisan line. Of the rest, most states on the list are flirting with moving into or out of the toss up category. And for the most part, most of that potential movement is toward Obama.

*Yes, and I think I've settled on a slightly different methodology that should help there. As I said, it is more of a progressive weighting structure and it better captures polling changes while rooting them in past results. But I'll get into that more in an FAQ-type post later on...after I've got it implemented. Speaking of which, the implementation of the new formula is somewhat tedious. I hope [HOPE] to have it up and ready to go tonight. If I do, I'll update the map and other graphics as if there was no change and post the altered methodology version along side of it for comparison's sake. Again, hopefully that will be tonight, but we'll see.


Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (10/5/08)

The Electoral College Map (10/4/08)

The Electoral College Map (10/3/08)

The Electoral College Map (10/5/08)

They must not have circulated the memo very widely, but there's a month left in presidential race. I got it, but apparently the polling firms didn't. Wow, was it a slow day for polling. So slow, in fact, most of us were scrambling to re-enter the Elon numbers from North Carolina yesterday. Needless to say, there wasn't a seismic shift in the way the map looks today. Disappointing, I know.

New Polls (Oct. 4)
State	Poll	Margin
Maine	Rasmussen	+5
North Carolina	Elon	+0.1

Whether you count it as two points or .1 (Only the latter is correct. The data on the former was from a question concerning which candidate would better deal with the current economic situation.), the margin in Elon's poll of North Carolina continues to be a troubling trend for the McCain campaign. Anything there favoring Obama at this stage in the game can't be a positive for McCain. And that trend has stretched down the ballot in North Carolina as well. FHQ doesn't often comment on the congressional races, but being a native North Carolinian, I keep my eye on politics in the Tar Heel state. And this economic crisis and subsequent bailout certainly seems to be giving Democrats more than a fighting chance from the presidential race to the contests for Senate and several House seats. The reason I bring this up is because when we talk about an election where all of the toss up states break in one direction, these are the types of factors that are behind such a potential perfect storm. Is that likely to happen? Maybe, maybe not, but that is what to look for in the polling down the stretch.

[Click Map to Enlarge]

With only one new poll out, though, there wasn't that great a chance for change on the map or in any of the other graphics here at FHQ. The Rasmussen poll in Maine again shows a tightening race there, but the Pine Tree state remains comfortably in Obama's group of strong states. One thing that poll does reinforce is the move the McCain campaign has made recently to shift some resources into the state in an effort to pick off Maine's second district. It may ultimately prove a longshot, but if this election ends up being close -- something that most electoral college projections show to be decreasingly likely -- then that one electoral vote could come in handy. As it is, at 278-260 in Obama's favor, that move wouldn't make that much of a difference.

The Electoral College Spectrum*
HI-4 (7)**	ME-4 (157)	NH-4 (264/278)	ND-3 (160)	KS-6 (64)
VT-3 (10)	WA-11 (168)	CO-9*** (273/274)	WV-5 (157)	AR-6 (58)
RI-4 (14)	IA-7 (175)	NV-5 (278/265)	TX-34 (152)	NE-5 (52)
IL-21 (35)	OR-7 (182)	OH-20 (298/260)	GA-15 (118)	TN-11 (47)
MD-10 (45)	NJ-15 (197)	VA-13 (311/240)	AK-3 (115)	KY-8 (36)
DE-3 (48)	MN-10 (207)	FL-27 (338/227)	MS-6 (100)	AL-9 (28)
CT-7 (55)	WI-10 (217)	IN-11 (349/200)	SC-8 (94)	WY-3 (19)
NY-31 (86)	NM-5 (222)	MO-11 (360/189)	SD-3 (86)	ID-4 (16)
CA-55 (141)	MI-17 (239/316)	NC-15 (178)	AZ-10 (83)	OK-7 (12)
MA-12 (153)	PA-21 (260/299)	MT-3 (163)	LA-9 (73)	UT-5 (5)
*Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. **The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, McCain won all the states up to and including Pennsylvania (all Obama's toss up states, but Michigan), he would have 299 electoral votes. Both candidates numbers are only totaled through their rival's toss up states. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and McCain's is on the right in italics. ***Colorado is the state where Obama crosses (or McCain would cross) the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. It is currently favoring Obama, thus the blue text in that cell.

And though the Electoral College Spectrum is identical to yesterday's version, there are enough states at stake on the Watch List to potenitally make this race interesting in this last month. As the McCain campaign has alluded over the last day or two, though, much of such a shift back toward the Republican candidate would be contingent upon the campaign narrative moving away from the issues surrounding the economy. The bailout bill has passed, but it will likely be difficult to get that and other related issues off the minds of voters before November 4.

The Watch List*
State	Switch
Iowa	from Obama lean	to Strong Obama
Michigan	from Toss Up Obama	to Obama lean
Missouri	from Toss Up McCain	to McCain lean
Nevada	from Toss Up Obama	to Toss Up McCain
North Carolina	from McCain lean	to Toss Up McCain
Ohio	from Toss Up McCain	to Toss Up Obama
Oregon	from Obama lean	to Strong Obama
Pennsylvania	from Toss Up Obama	to Obama lean
Texas	from Strong McCain	to McCain lean
Virginia	from Toss Up McCain	to Toss Up Obama
Washington	from Strong Obama	to Obama lean
*Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (10/4/08)

The Electoral College Map (10/3/08)

Live Blog and Open Thread: The Vice Presidential Debate