Wednesday, April 13, 2011
The 2012 Candidates: Santorum's In
The 2012 Presidential Primary Calendar (4/13/11)
[Click to Enlarge]
Reading the Map:
As was the case with the maps from past cycles, the earlier a contest is scheduled in 2012, the darker the color in which the state is shaded. Florida, for instance, is a much deeper shade of blue in January than South Dakota is in June. There are, however, some differences between the earlier maps and the one that appears above.
- Several caucus states have yet to select a date for the first step of their delegate selection processes in 2012. Until a decision is made by state parties in those states, they will appear in gray on the map.
- The states where legislation to move the presidential primary is active are two-toned. One color indicates the timing of the primary according to the current law whereas the second color is meant to highlight the most likely month to which the primary could be moved. [With the exception of Texas, the proposed movement is backward.] This is clear in most states, but in others -- Maryland and Tennessee -- where multiple timing options are being considered, the most likely date is used. Here that is defined as a bill -- or date change -- with the most institutional support. In both cases, the majority party leadership is sponsoring one change over another (February to March in Tennessee and February to April in Maryland). That option is given more weight on the map.
- Kentucky is unique because the legislation there calls for shifting the primary from May to August. As August is not included in the color coding, white designates that potential move with the May shade of blue. Georgia, too, is unique. The state legislature is considering a bill to shift primary date-setting power from the legislature to the secretary of state. The effect is that the Peach state has a dark blue stripe for its current February primary date and a gray stripe to reflect the fact that a change from that based on the bill in question would put the future 2012 primary date in limbo until December 1 at the latest.
- Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina are shaded on the map according to the latest possible date these states would have if Florida opts not to move their primary into compliance with the national party rules. Iowa Republicans and Nevada Republicans and Democrats have decided to accept the party-designated dates, but FHQ operates under the assumption that both will move to a point ahead of the earliest exempt state should one or more move or maintain a February or earlier date.
- States that are bisected vertically are states where the state parties have different dates for their caucuses and/or primaries. The left hand section is shaded to reflect the state Democratic Party's scheduling while the right is for the state Republican Party's decision on the timing of its delegate selection event.
Reading the Calendar:
- Caucus states are italicized while primary states are not. Several caucus states are missing from the list because they have not formalized the date on which their contests will be held in 2012. Colorado appears because the caucuses dates there are set by the state, whereas a state like Alaska has caucuses run by the state parties and as such do not have their dates codified in state law.
- States that have changed dates appear twice (or more) on the calendar; once by the old date and once by the new date. The old date will be struck through while the new date will be color-coded with the amount of movement (in days) in parentheses. States in green are states that have moved to earlier dates on the calendar and states in red are those that have moved to later dates. Arkansas, for example, has moved its 2012 primary and moved it back 104 days from its 2008 position.
- The date of any primary or caucus moves that have taken place -- whether through gubernatorial signature or state party move -- also appear in parentheses following the state's/party's new entry on the calendar.
- States with active legislation have links to those bills included with their entries on the calendar. If there are multiple bills they are divided by chamber and/or numbered accordingly.
- Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina appear twice. The earlier entry corresponds with the latest possible date these states would have if Florida opts not to move their primary into compliance with the national party rules. The second, later entry for each of the non-exempt states reflects the position the national parties would prefer the earliest states to hold their delegate selection events.
2012 Presidential Primary Calendar
January 2012
Monday, January 16:
Iowa caucuses1
Tuesday, January 24:
New Hampshire1
Saturday, January 28:
Nevada caucuses1
South Carolina1
A note on the placement of Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina.
Tuesday, January 31:
February 2012
Monday, February 6:
Iowa caucuses (moved: 2/8/11) (based on national party rules)
Tuesday, February 7 (Super Tuesday):
Arkansas
California (bills: Assembly)
Connecticut (bills: House)
Delaware
Georgia (bills: House)
Illinois
Montana Republican caucuses
New York
Saturday, February 11:
Louisiana
Tuesday, February 14:
New Hampshire (based on national party rules)
Virginia
Washington, DC (bills: Council)
Saturday, February 18:
Nevada Republican caucuses (-28) (moved: 12/16/10) (based on national party rules)
Nevada Democratic caucuses2 (-28) (moved: 2/24/11) (based on national party rules)
Tuesday, February 21:
Hawaii Republican caucuses (+87) (moved: 5/16/09)
Wisconsin
Tuesday, February 28:
Arizona3
Michigan4 (bills: House)
South Carolina (based on national party rules)
March 2012
Tuesday, March 6:
Massachusetts4 (bills: House)
Ohio
Rhode Island
Texas (bills: House)
Vermont
Virginia (-21) (bills: House 1, 2/Senate) (moved: 3/25/11)
Sunday, March 11:
Maine Democratic caucuses (-28) (moved: 3/27/11)
Tuesday, March 13:
Colorado caucuses5 (bills: House)
Illinois (-42) (bills: Senate) (signed: 3/17/10)
April 2012
Tuesday, April 3:
Kansas (bills: House/Senate -- cancel primary)
Saturday, April 7:
Hawaii Democratic caucuses (-46) (moved: 3/18/11)
Washington Democratic caucuses (-56) (moved: 3/26/11)
Wyoming Democratic caucuses (-28) (moved: 3/16/11)
Saturday, April 14:
Nebraska Democratic caucuses (-60) (moved: 3/5/11)
Sunday, April 15:
Alaska Democratic caucuses (-70) (moved: 4/4/11)
Tuesday, April 24:
Pennsylvania
Indiana
North Carolina (bills: Senate)
West Virginia
Tuesday, May 15:
Idaho (+7) (bills: House) (signed: 2/23/11)
Nebraska
Arkansas (-104) (bills: House) (signed: 2/4/09)
Idaho
Kentucky (bills: House) (died: legislature adjourned)
June 2012
Tuesday, June 5:
Montana (GOP -119) (moved: 6/18/10)
New Mexico6 (bills: Senate) (died: legislature adjourned)
South Dakota
1 New Hampshire law calls for the Granite state to hold a primary on the second Tuesday of March or seven days prior to any other similar election, whichever is earlier. Florida is first now, so New Hampshire would be a week earlier at the latest. Traditionally, Iowa has gone on the Monday a week prior to New Hampshire. For the time being we'll wedge South Carolina in on the Saturday between New Hampshire and Florida, but these are just guesses at the moment. Any rogue states could cause a shift.
2 The Nevada Democratic caucuses date is based on both DNC rules and the state party's draft delegate selection plan as of February 24, 2011.
3 In Arizona the governor can use his or her proclamation powers to move the state's primary to a date on which the event would have an impact on the nomination. In 2004 and 2008 the primary was moved to the first Tuesday in February.
4 Massachusetts and Michigan are the only states that passed a frontloading bill prior to 2008 that was not permanent. The Bay state reverts to its first Tuesday in March date in 2012 while Michigan will fall back to the fourth Tuesday in February.
5 The Colorado Democratic and Republican parties have the option to move their caucuses from the third Tuesday in March to the first Tuesday in February.
6 The law in New Mexico allows the parties to decide when to hold their nominating contests. The Democrats have gone in early February in the last two cycles, but the GOP has held steady in June. They have the option of moving however.
Bill Introduced in Michigan House to Move Presidential Primary to January
Michigan Democrats Not Looking to Repeat 2008 Opt for May Caucuses
Bill to Move Presidential Caucuses and State Primaries Passes Colorado Senate
Florida Legislature to Create Outside Committee with Primary Date-Setting Authority
Florida’s legislative session ends May 6. Cannon said the legislation, which he will put forward tomorrow, will add “flexibility” to the process. This way, he said, Florida Republicans can work with other states on its calendar without forcing legislators to attend a special summer session.The bipartisan "presidential preference primary date selection committee" would be asked to make a decision by October on a primary date within the window of the first Tuesday in January and the first Tuesday in March. The panel would be made up of ten appointees — three picked by the House Speaker, three by the Senate President and three by governor, along with the secretary of state as a non-voting chair.Where the state lawmakers are not backing down is their conviction that Florida should be early. “We belong early in that conversation, because the path to the White House has to go through Florida,” Cannon said.
(3) If an alternative date is proposed under subsection (1) or (2) of this section, a committee consisting of the chair and the vice chair of the state committee of each major political party, the secretary of state, the majority leader and minority leader of the senate, and the speaker and the minority leader of the house of representatives shall meet and, if affirmed by a two-thirds vote of the members of the committee, the date of the primary shall be changed. The committee shall meet and decide on the proposed alternate date not later than the first day of October of the year before the year in which a presidential nominee is selected. The secretary of state shall convene and preside over the meeting of the committee. A committee member other than a legislator may appoint, in writing, a designee to serve on his or her behalf. A legislator who is a member of the committee may appoint, in writing, another legislator to serve on his or her behalf.
Christie Signals Support for June Primary in New Jersey
Gov. Chris Christie said Tuesday he’s inclined to move New Jersey’s 2012 presidential primary to June to save money and avoid penalties such as losing delegates.
New Jersey law says the primary will be held Feb.7, 2012, but that would violate new national party rules designed to prevent the chaos of the 2008 primary season, when states were competing for prominence by pushing their dates earlier and earlier.
“My inclination would be to say, listen these rules are so kind of screwy now about how we’re going to pick delegates … that I don’t know whether it’s enough value for New Jersey to move up,” Christie said in response to a question at a town hall in Cape May. “We’re going to have election in June anyway, especially in 2012 because we have a United States senate race at the top of the ticket.”
Christie said he’d have to get an agreement from the Democrats who hold the majority in both houses of the Legislature to change the law. He already has an unlikely ally in Assemblyman John Wisniewski, the state Democratic Party Chairman, who has submitted a bill to consolidate all primaries June. A Republican senator and an assemblyman are also sponsoring similar bills.