Tuesday, October 7, 2008

The Electoral College Map (10/7/08), Part II: The Changes

New Methodology:

There would have been a lot packed into one post if I would have included this discussion in with the other pre-change version of the map for yesterday. However, you can either scroll down (if you are on the main page) or click here to compare how things were different pre- and post-change.

To reiterate a point made earlier today, FHQ, in an attempt make our map more reflective of the current dynamics of the race for the presidency has made a slight alteration to its underlying statistical formula. Long story short, we have changed the weighting that is applied to all the past polls (back to Super Tuesday) in our data set. For a broader discussion of this change please see this link.

Changes (Oct. 6)
StateBeforeAfter
Iowa*
Obama lean
Strong Obama
Michigan*
Toss Up Obama
Obama lean
Nevada
Toss Up Obama
Toss Up McCain
North Carolina
McCain lean
Toss Up McCain
North Dakota*
McCain lean
Strong McCain
Pennsylvania*
Toss Up Obama
Obama lean
Virginia
Toss Up McCain
Toss Up Obama
*These states changed categories based on a slight change to FHQ's methodology. You can read more about that shift here.

Alright, let's start with the basics. How does the map change given the change to the methodology? Given yesterday's polling, North Carolina and Virginia still would have shifted into the McCain toss up and Obama toss up categories respectively. However, there several other noticeable shifts as well that are attributable to our decision on the averaging formula. Most notably, both Michigan and Pennsylvania move into the Obama lean category. Iowa, too, moves further into Obama territory, crossing the lean/strong threshold. But McCain is not without gains in this. Nevada, which had just recently shifted over into the Obama toss up category is back on the McCain side of the partisan line. And North Dakota shifts into the strong McCain area. All of these are pretty much no-brainers given recent polling. Nevada is perhaps surprising, but we have seen throughout this cycle an oscillation between +5 for McCain to +5 for Obama in the Silver state. There are some exceptions, but that is the basic trend. The one notable exception is the first poll in our time frame from Nevada. Obama had an early 12 point margin in a February Rasmussen poll and when that one is weighted appropriately, the Illinois senator lost some of the statistical advantage he had in the state. The remaining polling pretty much cancels each other out and give McCain a minutely sized edge there.
[Click Map to Enlarge]

But the real change is in the perception of the race with Michigan and Pennsylvania in the Obama lean category. With that change Obama is now relatively safe in states totaling 260 electoral votes and as you'll see just below on the Watch List, New Hampshire is also close to joining that group as well. The two comparable categories for John McCain add up to only 163 electoral votes.

The Electoral College Spectrum*
HI-4
(7)**
ME-4
(157)
NH-4
(264/278)
MT-3
(158)
LA-9
(67)
VT-3
(10)
WA-11
(168)
CO-9***
(273/274)
ND-3
(155)
KY-8
(58)
RI-4
(14)
IA-7
(175)
VA-13
(286/265)
GA-15
(152)
KS-6
(50)
MD-10
(24)
OR-7
(182)
OH-20
(306/252)
TX-34
(137)
TN-11
(44)
DE-3
(27)
NJ-15
(197)
NV-5
(311/232)
MS-6
(103)
NE-5
(33)
NY-31
(58)
MN-10
(207)
FL-27
(338/227)
AK-3
(97)
AL-9
(28)
IL-21
(79)
WI-10
(217)
MO-11
(349/200)
AR-6
(94)
WY-3
(19)
CT-7
(86)
NM-5
(222)
IN-11
(360/189)
SC-8
(88)
OK-7
(16)
MA-12
(98)
PA-21
(243)
NC-15
(375/178)
AZ-10
(80)
ID-4
(9)
CA-55
(153)
MI-17
(260)
WV-5
(163)
SD-3
(70)
UT-5
(5)
*Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.
**The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, McCain won all the states up to and including New Hampshire (all Obama's toss up states), he would have 278 electoral votes. Both candidates numbers are only totaled through their rival's toss up states. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and McCain's is on the right in italics.

***
Colorado is the state where Obama crosses (or McCain would cross) the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. It is currently favoring Obama, thus the blue text in that cell.

This all works out quite well in terms of the Electoral College Spectrum. The states still in play are conveniently contained within the middle column there. But there is some differentiation within that group as well. New Hampshire is within range of switching into the Obama lean category, Colorado has and average above two points and Virginia is within range of crossing back over into the McCain toss up area. Once you cross the partisan line into the pink, McCain toss up states, there is now a line that can be drawn between Florida and Missouri. Florida, Nevada and Ohio are all in danger of turning blue, while Indiana and Missouri are in positions comparable to Colorado on the Obama side of the ledger. Finally, North Carolina is in a similar position as New Hampshire, competitive, but not as competitive as these other states.

The Watch List*
StateSwitch
Floridafrom Toss Up McCain
to Toss Up Obama
Iowafrom Strong Obama
to Obama lean
Michiganfrom Obama lean
to Toss Up Obama
Nevadafrom Toss Up McCain
to Toss Up Obama
New Hampshirefrom Toss Up Obama
to Obama lean
New Jerseyfrom Obama lean
to Strong Obama
North Carolinafrom Toss Up McCain
to McCain lean
North Dakotafrom Strong McCainto McCain lean
Ohiofrom Toss Up McCain
to Toss Up Obama
Oregonfrom Obama lean
to Strong Obama
Pennsylvaniafrom Obama lean
to Toss Up Obama
Virginiafrom Toss Up Obama
to Toss Up McCain
Washingtonfrom Strong Obama
to Obama lean
*Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

Aside from Michigan and Pennsylvania, Florida is the other big story here. The Sunshine state had moved in a middle ground area within the McCain toss up category, but was seemingly stuck there. When the past polls are weighted based on when they were conducted, Florida jumps into the discussion with Nevada, Ohio and Virginia; states that could switch sides of the partisan line with any new poll released. Presidential campaigns on both sides are used to playing some form of offense or defense in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, but McCain seemingly had Florida nailed down over the summer. But that's not the case anymore. Playing defense in Florida and Ohio -- not to mention Virginia -- in an unfriendly political environment makes it even tougher to go on the offensive in places like Pennsylvania and...

...Michigan.

Put very simply, McCain is in trouble and has to devise a formula that can somehow reverse the trend toward Obama. Over the weekend and into the beginning part of this week, it looks like the campaign has decided to go negative to bring Obama down, but hopefully not bring themselves down too far in the process. The political science literature tells us that negative attacks bring both sides down, but the aggressor/underdog has to hope that the fall is much greater for opposition. That seems to be McCain's strategy now and, though, we don't have a full picture of this given the lag time inherent in polling, we do know that the polling out thus far this week has continued to move toward Obama. That is the context in which the debate will be held this evening. McCain will have to be aggressive, but as Rob notes in the comments, the town hall format is not a particular conducive format for an attack.


Speaking of debates, I'll be back later this evening to provide insta-analysis as well as discuss the events as they happen and maybe even afterward.


Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (10/7/08)

The Electoral College Map (10/6/08)

The Electoral College Map (10/5/08)

The Electoral College Map (10/7/08)

First, let's discuss Monday's polling changes in terms of how they would look under the original methodology and then we'll compare and contrast with how things look under the new graduated weighted average.

Old Methodology:

With 13 new polls out in 10 states -- eight of which are or have become toss ups -- Monday there certainly the potential for a shake up to our map and the electoral vote distribution. As has become apparent since the Wall Street meltdown, Obama is now ahead, not just nationally, but in the states where the battle for the White House is being most hotly contested. If the polls below are indicative of how votes will be cast on November 4, then Obama is in good shape. Polling leads in Colorado, Florida, Missouri, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Virginia give the Illinois senator a number of paths to 270. The Rasmussen poll of Ohio is the only exception to the rule, but even that poll was countered by a 6 point margin in the ABC/Washington Post poll of the Buckeye state.

New Polls (Oct. 6)
StatePollMargin
Colorado
Rasmussen/FOX
+6
Florida
Rasmussen/FOX
+7
Georgia
Research 2000/Daily Kos
+7
Missouri
Rasmussen/FOX
+3
New Hampshire
Survey USA
+13
New Mexico
Albuquerque Journal
+5
North Carolina
Public Policy Polling
+6
Ohio
ABC/Washington Post
+6
Ohio
Rasmussen/FOX
+1
Pennsylvania
Muhlenberg College
+11
Virginia
Suffolk
+12
Virginia
Survey USA
+10
Virginia
Rasmussen/FOX
+2

And some of these margins are particularly large in view of polling in some of these states just more than a month ago, prior to the conventions. McCain got the last word at his convention, but the staying power of that bounce subsided once the Lehman collapse and other financial sector issues came to the fore.

Changes (Oct. 6)
StateBeforeAfter
North Carolina
McCain lean
Toss Up McCain
Virginia
Toss Up McCain
Toss Up Obama

The result is a slow progression toward Obama in the toss ups and marginally competitive lean states. That lean state movement is mostly on the blue side but North Carolina has now jumped back into the toss up category based on a string [Yes, string...] of Obama-favorable polls in the Tar Heel state. Virginia continues to work its way through the statistical noise in our formula and has once again shifted between toss up categories; this time on the Obama side of the partisan line.
[Click Map to Enlarge]

With Virginia rejoining Nevada on the blue side of the line, Obama's electoral vote lead is now at 291-247. And those 15 North Carolina electoral votes are now back on the table in the toss up McCain area. More importantly, though, Obama once again has a two state cushion with which to work. And obviously that goes back the paths to which we were referring just a moment ago. The Illinois senator has options that McCain just does not at this point. Obama can lose both Nevada and Virginia and still win.

The Electoral College Spectrum*
HI-4
(7)**
ME-4
(157)
NH-4
(264/278)
ND-3
(160)
KS-6
(64)
VT-3
(10)
WA-11
(168)
CO-9***
(273/274)
WV-5
(157)
AR-6
(58)
RI-4
(14)
IA-7
(175)
VA-13
(286/265)
TX-34
(152)
NE-5
(52)
IL-21
(35)
OR-7
(182)
NV-5
(291/252)
GA-15
(118)
TN-11
(47)
MD-10
(45)
MN-10
(192)
OH-20
(311/247)
AK-3
(115)
KY-8
(36)
DE-3
(48)
NJ-15
(207)
FL-27
(338/227)
MS-6
(100)
AL-9
(28)
CT-7
(55)
WI-10
(217)
IN-11
(349/200)
SC-8
(94)
WY-3
(19)
NY-31
(86)
NM-5
(222)
MO-11
(360/189)
SD-3
(86)
ID-4
(16)
CA-55
(141)
MI-17
(239/316)
NC-15
(375/178)
AZ-10
(83)
OK-7
(12)
MA-12
(153)
PA-21
(260/299)
MT-3
(163)
LA-9
(73)
UT-5
(5)
*Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.
**The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, McCain won all the states up to and including Pennsylvania (all Obama's toss up states, but Michigan), he would have 299 electoral votes. Both candidates numbers are only totaled through their rival's toss up states. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and McCain's is on the right in italics.

***
Colorado is the state where Obama crosses (or McCain would cross) the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. It is currently favoring Obama, thus the blue text in that cell.

That tenuous grasp Obama has on both those states is highlighted by the presence of each on the Watch List. Even though both are currently favoring Obama, each is within striking distance for McCain. But with more and more polling coming out indicating movement toward Obama, that distance is increasing with each day. And now, with the momentum behind Obama, the playing field has shifted away from those light blue states -- the ones we talked about Obama having to defend just a couple of weeks ago -- toward the pink states on the Electoral College Spectrum above.

The Watch List*
StateSwitch
Iowafrom Obama lean
to Strong Obama
Michiganfrom Toss Up Obama
to Obama lean
Minnesotafrom Obama lean
to Strong Obama
Missourifrom Toss Up McCainto McCain lean
Nevadafrom Toss Up Obama
to Toss Up McCain
North Carolinafrom Toss Up McCain
to McCain lean
Ohiofrom Toss Up McCain
to Toss Up Obama
Oregonfrom Obama lean
to Strong Obama
Pennsylvaniafrom Toss Up Obama
to Obama lean
Texasfrom Strong McCainto McCain lean
Virginiafrom Toss Up Obama
to Toss Up McCain
Washingtonfrom Strong Obama
to Obama lean
*Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

Please see here for the version of the breakdown with the methodological changes alluded to above.


Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (10/6/08)

The Electoral College Map (10/5/08)

The Electoral College Map (10/4/08)

Frequently Asked Questions: Electoral College Analysis

What data are you using to differentiate between states?
FHQ uses all state-level, trial-heat polls in its averages for each state. We use all the polls available to us since Super Tuesday, when the race for the Democratic nomination officially became a two person race; one with two seemingly evenly matched candidates. The argument can be made that Obama was even in the race following his Iowa victory, but did not fully quash the "flash in the pan" argument until after the split of the contests on February 5.

Also, I use only the polls that avoid the selection bias inherent in internet-based polls or mail-in polls. As such, the three waves of Zogby Interactive polls are excluded as are the mail-in Columbus Dispatch polls.

Finally, the data used at this stage in the game is the data attendant to the "likely" voter samples. With a month to go, those sample are more accurate than they would have been only a couple of months ago. Also, in the event that a polling firm posts two different versions of a poll based on whether third party candidates are included, it is FHQ's policy to take the version with those candidates on the sample ballot.
Why use those past polls at all?
Indeed, why not just use the most recent poll or polls like everyone else? Well, if I'm just doing what everyone else is doing, why even do it? I can quit now and go look at what Pollster or Real Clear Politics, to name just a couple, have to say on the matter. That's part of the reasoning, but the main reason for the inclusion of past polls is to avoid the volatility of polling. FHQ doesn't want fluctuation for the sake of fluctuation. If one poll is an outlier, fine, but that one poll should not be able to fundamentally shift the average and the projected outcome of any given state. The past polls are included because they represent the feelings of a group of respondents at a particular point in the race. Those feelings may be latent in the current environment, but in FHQ's estimation, should be accounted for in some way, shape or form. If the McCain campaign were able to effective make Jeremiah Wright an issue again, we could return to some degree to the polling distribution of that period. Will that happen? Maybe, maybe not, but that will be controlled for nonetheless.

How do you determine which state goes go into which categories on your map?
Early on in this process, it was simply a matter of averaging the polling data we had at our disposal. But as new polling data emerged, the older data served as an anchor on trends of the race -- at that time in the midst of the Democratic nomination battle. From May through the close of the nominating phase of the race, FHQ took the average of a state's polls, but discounted all but the three most recent polls. Following Clinton's withdrawal from the race, we took the opportunity to tweak that yet again, discounting all but the single most recent poll in a given state. The goal then was to make the average more responsive to developing trends in the race, but not responsive to the point that a single poll fundamentally shifted the outlook in a state.

That responsiveness balance is an important element here. Lately, as the polls have trended toward Obama, FHQ's averages have stagnated, moving very little in the face of the Obama flavor to the polls out in the wake of the economic situation on Wall Street. So we have once again fine-tuned our formula in the hopes of being responsive to a new direction in the race, but not simply responsive to one potentially outlier poll.

As I said in Saturday's electoral college post, our method of averaging serves us well in most states, but the exceptions are potentially consequential to the race for the White House. If you look at the Electoral College Spectrum, for example, that rank ordering of the states seems about right. The underlying averages in states like Florida, Minnesota and North Carolina, though, place them in positions outside of where the current trend would likely place them. At issue is the weighting formula for all the past polls backing up to Super Tuesday. All but the most recent poll had been discounted at the same rate and that meant that polls in March were treated the same as polls in September. Under the old configuration, that most recent poll counted as two-thirds of the average and all the other polls, treated with a blanket discount rate, accounted for the remaining one-third.
How exactly are you weighting those past polls?
As I explained above, FHQ's practice has been to discount each poll at the same rate. However, that is likely causing problems for the averages in some states. There is, then, a need to re-examine those weights specifically. The method we have settled on is to use what we are calling a graduated weighted average. And what that does is to discount polls in February at a level greater than more recent polls from August or September.

So, how exactly is FHQ weighting those past polls? The first step was to determine how many days there will have been between Super Tuesday (February 5) and election day (November 4). There are 273 days counting November 4, but that number won't be useful until that actual day. The real point of that determination is to assign a number to each date in between. February 6, then, was day one and yesterday, October 6, was day number 244. To determine the weight, the median point at which a poll was in the field, is used as the numerator while the day we are currently in -- today's numbers reflect yesterday's changes, so 244 -- is the denominator. That equation gives us the weight of any given poll. The poll numbers on that day are then multiplied by that weight.

However, there is one more twist I'll add to this. The effect this change has is only at the margins. Why? Well, there are a couple of things happening here. First, the graduated weighting essentially averages out to the blanket weight applied to all polls before. There are differences, but they are minimal in most cases. The other, related issue is that the relative weight of the most recent poll shrinks after the reweighting of the other polls. The blanket discount rate on past polls basically cut each past poll's value in half. Now that polling frequency has increased, though, there are a lot more polls that are at greater than 80% value. That threatens the preeminent position of the most recent poll. It is too much of an anchor on that poll. To confront this problem, and to give the most recent poll a little more oomph, we cut the weights in half. Relative to each other, then, the past polls are treated with the same basic weight they had before, but relative to the most recent poll they have been minimized.

Why are the thresholds between categories on the map where they are?
For much of this process, the threshold between a strong state for either candidate and a lean state was arbitrarily set at a 10 point margin. Likewise the margin separating a lean state from a toss up state was 5 points. However, as we have approached election day, it has obviously become more difficult for the candidates to make up enough ground to, if not overtake the other candidate in a state, become competitive there. In a nod to that fact, the thresholds were dropped to 9 points and 4 points, respectively, following the first debate. After the final debate, with just less than three weeks left in the race, the threshold will be dropped again to three points between the toss up and lean states. At that point, it probably will not be necessary to discuss the race in terms of three categories. It will be a question of which states are close and which states aren't then. However, FHQ will evaluate where the potential breaking point is between the lean states and the strong states at that point. It may not be necessary to talk about lean states at that point, but that distinction does add an element of clarity to how we perceive all the states in relation to each other.

Monday, October 6, 2008

The Electoral College Map (10/6/08)

Another slow weekend poll release, but at least Sunday's new polls were in states that are on or have recently been on our Watch List (states closest to switching categories or sides according to our average). Put very simply, Minnesota is all over the place. Within the last week, CNN has it at +12 Obama, Survey USA at +1 McCain and now the Minneapolis Star Tribune has it at Obama +18. So which is it and can we believe any of those polls anyway?

Throughout the last month or two Minnesota has been the topic of conversation in the comments sections of these electoral college posts here at FHQ. That is largely attributable to the erratic nature of the polling in the North Star state. The Survey USA poll is the first to show a McCain lead since March, but polling had shown a range from around 0 to the mid- to upper teens across the entire year's polling in the state before that. Now, why is it so hard to poll Minnesota? Well, part of it has to do with election day registration. If there isn't a filter question (or series of questions) in the survey that asks the likelihood of someone both registering and voting on election day, then those folks don't count as registered and they obviously don't count as likely voters. Some of the electorate is potentially being missed then. But which poll is closer to right? The truth, as our custom around here may suggest, is somewhere in the middle. Minnesota looks to have tightened some, but we are beginning to get some information that indicates the North Star state is following the national polls in that it is trending toward Obama. But by 12 to 18 points? Probably not, but it does indicate that the state is fairly strong for Obama at the moment.

New Polls (Oct. 5)
StatePollMargin
Colorado
Mason-Dixon
0
Minnesota
Star Tribune
+18
Ohio
Columbus Dispatch
+7

Outside of Minnesota, there were also new polls out in Colorado and Ohio. Ohio is very much tracking along the same lines as the national polls. But Colorado, after having a few polls in the wake of the Lehman collapse favor Obama at levels outside the margin of error, has reverted to a margin that, while it still leans toward Obama, is certainly tighter than in some of the other toss up states. And that process continues with the Mason-Dixon poll showing the race in a dead heat.
[Click Map to Enlarge]

But back to Ohio for a moment. The Columbus Dispatch poll, like other recent polls out of the Buckeye state, indicates a mid-single digit lead for Obama. [It should be noted that this poll is a mail in poll which comes with some potential issues, but that figure is in line with some of the other polling that has emerged from Ohio in the last week or two.] Another pretty good Obama result and Ohio still doesn't turn blue? No, but it is really close now. [Hey, weren't you supposed to be making some changes to address this lack of responsiveness?*] But close doesn't count, does it? For now then, Ohio stays in the McCain toss up area and the electoral college vote distribution remains unchanged from yesterday, 278-260 in favor of Obama.

The Electoral College Spectrum*
HI-4
(7)**
ME-4
(157)
NH-4
(264/278)
ND-3
(160)
KS-6
(64)
VT-3
(10)
WA-11
(168)
CO-9***
(273/274)
WV-5
(157)
AR-6
(58)
RI-4
(14)
IA-7
(175)
NV-5
(278/265)
TX-34
(152)
NE-5
(52)
IL-21
(35)
OR-7
(182)
OH-20
(298/260)
GA-15
(118)
TN-11
(47)
MD-10
(45)
MN-10
(192)
VA-13
(311/240)
AK-3
(115)
KY-8
(36)
DE-3
(48)
NJ-15
(207)
FL-27
(338/227)
MS-6
(100)
AL-9
(28)
CT-7
(55)
WI-10
(217)
IN-11
(349/200)
SC-8
(94)
WY-3
(19)
NY-31
(86)
NM-5
(222)
MO-11
(360/189)
SD-3
(86)
ID-4
(16)
CA-55
(141)
MI-17
(239/316)
NC-15
(178)
AZ-10
(83)
OK-7
(12)
MA-12
(153)
PA-21
(260/299)
MT-3
(163)
LA-9
(73)
UT-5
(5)
*Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.
**The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, McCain won all the states up to and including Pennsylvania (all Obama's toss up states, but Michigan), he would have 299 electoral votes. Both candidates numbers are only totaled through their rival's toss up states. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and McCain's is on the right in italics.

***
Colorado is the state where Obama crosses (or McCain would cross) the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. It is currently favoring Obama, thus the blue text in that cell.

The new Minnesota poll also has the effect of moving it back on to the Watch List, within a point of moving into the strong Obama category. That polls also vaults the North Star state above New Jersey on the Electoral College Spectrum. In both cases, Minnesota is the only change. Colorado is still at the center of the struggle. In its current position as the victory line, the Centennial state puts Obama over 270 electoral votes and would put McCain over if the Arizona senator was able to hold on to the states in shades of red and pick up Nevada. Even though that tie in the Mason-Dixon poll of Colorado is shows a tie race, if McCain were to win it and not Nevada, that would get the race to a 269-269 tie in the electoral college. And that tiebreaker doesn't look too good if you put any stock in any of the House election projections.

The Watch List*
StateSwitch
Iowafrom Obama lean
to Strong Obama
Michiganfrom Toss Up Obama
to Obama lean
Minnesotafrom Obama lean
to Strong Obama
Missourifrom Toss Up McCainto McCain lean
Nevadafrom Toss Up Obama
to Toss Up McCain
North Carolinafrom McCain lean
to Toss Up McCain
Ohiofrom Toss Up McCain
to Toss Up Obama
Oregonfrom Obama lean
to Strong Obama
Pennsylvaniafrom Toss Up Obama
to Obama lean
Texasfrom Strong McCainto McCain lean
Virginiafrom Toss Up McCain
to Toss Up Obama
Washingtonfrom Strong Obama
to Obama lean
*Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

On the Watch List, this is still very much a Nevada, Ohio and Virginia discussion. Those states are the ones closest to switching sides of the partisan line. Of the rest, most states on the list are flirting with moving into or out of the toss up category. And for the most part, most of that potential movement is toward Obama.

*Yes, and I think I've settled on a slightly different methodology that should help there. As I said, it is more of a progressive weighting structure and it better captures polling changes while rooting them in past results. But I'll get into that more in an FAQ-type post later on...after I've got it implemented. Speaking of which, the implementation of the new formula is somewhat tedious. I hope [HOPE] to have it up and ready to go tonight. If I do, I'll update the map and other graphics as if there was no change and post the altered methodology version along side of it for comparison's sake. Again, hopefully that will be tonight, but we'll see.


Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (10/5/08)

The Electoral College Map (10/4/08)

The Electoral College Map (10/3/08)

Saturday, October 4, 2008

The Electoral College Map (10/5/08)

They must not have circulated the memo very widely, but there's a month left in presidential race. I got it, but apparently the polling firms didn't. Wow, was it a slow day for polling. So slow, in fact, most of us were scrambling to re-enter the Elon numbers from North Carolina yesterday. Needless to say, there wasn't a seismic shift in the way the map looks today. Disappointing, I know.

New Polls (Oct. 4)
StatePollMargin
Maine
Rasmussen
+5
North Carolina
Elon
+0.1

Whether you count it as two points or .1 (Only the latter is correct. The data on the former was from a question concerning which candidate would better deal with the current economic situation.), the margin in Elon's poll of North Carolina continues to be a troubling trend for the McCain campaign. Anything there favoring Obama at this stage in the game can't be a positive for McCain. And that trend has stretched down the ballot in North Carolina as well. FHQ doesn't often comment on the congressional races, but being a native North Carolinian, I keep my eye on politics in the Tar Heel state. And this economic crisis and subsequent bailout certainly seems to be giving Democrats more than a fighting chance from the presidential race to the contests for Senate and several House seats. The reason I bring this up is because when we talk about an election where all of the toss up states break in one direction, these are the types of factors that are behind such a potential perfect storm. Is that likely to happen? Maybe, maybe not, but that is what to look for in the polling down the stretch.
[Click Map to Enlarge]

With only one new poll out, though, there wasn't that great a chance for change on the map or in any of the other graphics here at FHQ. The Rasmussen poll in Maine again shows a tightening race there, but the Pine Tree state remains comfortably in Obama's group of strong states. One thing that poll does reinforce is the move the McCain campaign has made recently to shift some resources into the state in an effort to pick off Maine's second district. It may ultimately prove a longshot, but if this election ends up being close -- something that most electoral college projections show to be decreasingly likely -- then that one electoral vote could come in handy. As it is, at 278-260 in Obama's favor, that move wouldn't make that much of a difference.

The Electoral College Spectrum*
HI-4
(7)**
ME-4
(157)
NH-4
(264/278)
ND-3
(160)
KS-6
(64)
VT-3
(10)
WA-11
(168)
CO-9***
(273/274)
WV-5
(157)
AR-6
(58)
RI-4
(14)
IA-7
(175)
NV-5
(278/265)
TX-34
(152)
NE-5
(52)
IL-21
(35)
OR-7
(182)
OH-20
(298/260)
GA-15
(118)
TN-11
(47)
MD-10
(45)
NJ-15
(197)
VA-13
(311/240)
AK-3
(115)
KY-8
(36)
DE-3
(48)
MN-10
(207)
FL-27
(338/227)
MS-6
(100)
AL-9
(28)
CT-7
(55)
WI-10
(217)
IN-11
(349/200)
SC-8
(94)
WY-3
(19)
NY-31
(86)
NM-5
(222)
MO-11
(360/189)
SD-3
(86)
ID-4
(16)
CA-55
(141)
MI-17
(239/316)
NC-15
(178)
AZ-10
(83)
OK-7
(12)
MA-12
(153)
PA-21
(260/299)
MT-3
(163)
LA-9
(73)
UT-5
(5)
*Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.
**The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, McCain won all the states up to and including Pennsylvania (all Obama's toss up states, but Michigan), he would have 299 electoral votes. Both candidates numbers are only totaled through their rival's toss up states. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and McCain's is on the right in italics.

***
Colorado is the state where Obama crosses (or McCain would cross) the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. It is currently favoring Obama, thus the blue text in that cell.

And though the Electoral College Spectrum is identical to yesterday's version, there are enough states at stake on the Watch List to potenitally make this race interesting in this last month. As the McCain campaign has alluded over the last day or two, though, much of such a shift back toward the Republican candidate would be contingent upon the campaign narrative moving away from the issues surrounding the economy. The bailout bill has passed, but it will likely be difficult to get that and other related issues off the minds of voters before November 4.

The Watch List*
StateSwitch
Iowafrom Obama lean
to Strong Obama
Michiganfrom Toss Up Obama
to Obama lean
Missourifrom Toss Up McCainto McCain lean
Nevadafrom Toss Up Obama
to Toss Up McCain
North Carolinafrom McCain lean
to Toss Up McCain
Ohiofrom Toss Up McCain
to Toss Up Obama
Oregonfrom Obama lean
to Strong Obama
Pennsylvaniafrom Toss Up Obama
to Obama lean
Texasfrom Strong McCainto McCain lean
Virginiafrom Toss Up McCain
to Toss Up Obama
Washingtonfrom Strong Obama
to Obama lean
*Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories.


Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (10/4/08)

The Electoral College Map (10/3/08)

Live Blog and Open Thread: The Vice Presidential Debate

Friday, October 3, 2008

The Electoral College Map (10/4/08)

I don't like not have a ton of new polling data on any given day, but it is nice on a day like today when only five polls come out (Well, six, but I lumped the Rasmussen poll in New Hampshire into "yesterday's" post). And those five polls from five different states tell a story similar to what we have witnessed recently: Obama continues to strengthen his position in this race. However, we rarely get a sweep by one of the candidates, but that's what we got today. Now, we would expect to see New York, Rhode Island and Washington colored blue. Nevada and North Carolina, though, are more competitive, and continue the slow creep toward Obama.

New Polls (Oct. 3)
StatePollMargin
Nevada
Rasmussen
+4
New York
Siena
+22
North Carolina
Elon
+2
Rhode Island
Rhode Island College
+14
Washington
Rasmussen
+10

Both the Silver state and the Tar Heel state have been consistently behind McCain at one point or another during this race. North Carolina has been some shade of red for the entire duration of this map series and Nevada has switched back and forth between the McCain and Obama toss up categories since the early summer months. And on the strength of the Rasmussen poll out in the Silver state today, flips again; this time to Obama.

Changes (Oct. 3)
StateBeforeAfter
Nevada
Toss Up McCain
Toss Up Obama

But that brings us to broader discussion we've have had in the comments section here over the last week of so concerning FHQ's methodology. We have been using a weighted average that gives the most weight to the one most recent poll while discounting all the rest back to Super Tuesday. I like having those past polls in there -- that information is valuable, if inflated at the moment -- but they can serve as a drag on certain states that makes the average there sluggish in response to new data. So, while the average, on the whole does a good job of laying out the basic rank ordering of the states in this race, there are some problem areas that need to be addressed.

What are those states and what are the areas? Well, I think it is clear that something is up in both Minnesota and North Carolina that we just aren't capturing with our weighted average in its current configuation. Of the last seven polls in North Carolina, Obama has been either ahead or tied in six. The story is similar in Minnesota. McCain has only been ahead in the Survey USA poll out yesterday, but the Arizona senator has been within three points of Obama in six of the last eight polls there, dating back to September 11. While both states may not be as close as some other sites have them, they are both in my estimation, closer than what the map and the Electoral College Spectrum below indicate. I also think that Florida can be put in this group as well. In nine of the most recent ten polls, Obama has been ahead or tied with the Arizona senator. Now sure, I can be accused of cherrypicking the number of polls I'm looking at in each case, but in each state those polls represent a sizable chunk of the total number of polls in all three. The ten polls in Florida represent just under 20% of the data we have on the Sunshine state. In North Carolina it's a shade under 1 in every six polls. And in Minnesota, we're talking about a group of polls that makes up almost 30% of the total number of polls conducted there this cycle.

In other words, we're seeing a pattern. But the average isn't reacting as quickly as perhaps it should to those changes.
[Click Map to Enlarge]

Well, despite that, we see that Obama adds Nevada's five electoral votes to bring his total from yesterday up to 278 electoral votes. But the fact remains that we just don't see many changes around here. That's fine. I don't mind being the among the conservative voices methodologically speaking in the great electoral college debate/discussion being had across the web. However, I do want the numbers to reflect as accurately as possible the actual state of the race. Fine, what are you going to do already, FHQ? As I said in the comments section today, I'll look into this over the weekend -- now that I have a little bit of time -- and will probably initially reexaine the weighting scheme. All polls are not created equally. May polls, for example, mean less now than September polls and our method needs to reflect that. I have done some trial runs of a couple of progressive weighting structures that discount those earlier polls more than the recent ones and the results are promising. This is on a trial basis in just a handful of states, but I want to try and work out the kinks before I use any of them across the board.

The Electoral College Spectrum*
HI-4
(7)**
ME-4
(157)
NH-4
(264/278)
ND-3
(160)
KS-6
(64)
VT-3
(10)
WA-11
(168)
CO-9***
(273/274)
WV-5
(157)
AR-6
(58)
RI-4
(14)
IA-7
(175)
NV-5
(278/265)
TX-34
(152)
NE-5
(52)
IL-21
(35)
OR-7
(182)
OH-20
(298/260)
GA-15
(118)
TN-11
(47)
MD-10
(45)
NJ-15
(197)
VA-13
(311/240)
AK-3
(115)
KY-8
(36)
DE-3
(48)
MN-10
(207)
FL-27
(338/227)
MS-6
(100)
AL-9
(28)
CT-7
(55)
WI-10
(217)
IN-11
(349/200)
SC-8
(94)
WY-3
(19)
NY-31
(86)
NM-5
(222)
MO-11
(360/189)
SD-3
(86)
ID-4
(16)
CA-55
(141)
MI-17
(239/316)
NC-15
(178)
AZ-10
(83)
OK-7
(12)
MA-12
(153)
PA-21
(260/299)
MT-3
(163)
LA-9
(73)
UT-5
(5)
*Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.
**The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, McCain won all the states up to and including Pennsylvania (all Obama's toss up states, but Michigan), he would have 299 electoral votes. Both candidates numbers are only totaled through their rival's toss up states. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and McCain's is on the right in italics.

***
Colorado is the state where Obama crosses (or McCain would cross) the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. It is currently favoring Obama, thus the blue text in that cell.

Alright, back to our regularly scheduled electoral map update. The only change on the Electoral College Spectrum today is the same change we saw above; Nevada turning blue...again. If the Obama gains there plateau or continue to rise, these fluctuations will work themselves out. And that goes for Virginia and Ohio as well. The basic idea remains the same though. McCain is on the defensive now that Michigan is off the board. However, if Minnesota is getting closer, unlike Michigan and New Hampshire and Pennsylvania (and to a lesser extent Colorado), then that might be a decent trade. Not ideal, but decent. If McCain holds the states in shades of red, adding Minnesota gets him to 270 exactly. That is a razor-thin victory, but a win is a win. Right Al Gore? Adding Colorado in place of Minnesota would trigger the tiebreaker in the House. But really those are the options now. Well, those two states and that second district in Maine. I can see now where that one could come into play.

Red states + Colorado + Maine's 2nd = 270

That may be easier said than done when Obama is making serious runs at Virginia/North Carolina and Ohio/Indiana.

The Watch List*
StateSwitch
Iowafrom Obama lean
to Strong Obama
Michiganfrom Toss Up Obama
to Obama lean
Missourifrom Toss Up McCainto McCain lean
Nevadafrom Toss Up Obama
to Toss Up McCain
North Carolinafrom McCain lean
to Toss Up McCain
Ohiofrom Toss Up McCain
to Toss Up Obama
Oregonfrom Obama lean
to Strong Obama
Pennsylvaniafrom Toss Up Obama
to Obama lean
Texasfrom Strong McCainto McCain lean
Virginiafrom Toss Up McCain
to Toss Up Obama
Washingtonfrom Strong Obama
to Obama lean
*Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

The Watch List's only change today is the potential change Nevada could make given new polling. If there is a shift there toward McCain, the average could push back into the red.


Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (10/3/08)

Live Blog and Open Thread: The Vice Presidential Debate

Where is McCain Playing Offense Now that Michigan is Off the Table?