Thus far there has been polling conducted in 34 states during August, including 12 of FHQ's 14 toss up states. And that is where we'll keep the focus for this examination, on those toss up states. Coming into the month, McCain held advantages in 8 toss up states totaling 86 electoral votes and Obama was ahead in 6 states with 76 electoral votes. In that time only Ohio's 20 electoral votes shifted (from Obama to McCain), though -- spoiler alert! -- that will change tomorrow. Regardless, that was the state of play heading in to the heat of August.
Let's look at those states:
McCain -- AK, FL, IN, MO, MT, NC, ND, VA
Obama -- CO, MI, NV, NH, OH, PA
Immediately, we can take Montana and North Dakota out. Neither has been polled this month, but among the rest there was some movement of note. Among the six Obama states, Colorado, Nevada, New Hampshire and Ohio shifted away from the Illinois senator while Michigan and Pennsylvania moved toward him. As we've said over the last couple of weeks, Colorado, Nevada and Ohio are among the closest of states now. Having all three move away Obama is not a welcome sight for those within the campaign. While that is certainly negative, the movement among the McCain states is also noteworthy Of those six McCain states where surveys took place, only two moved in the Arizona senator's direction while the remaining four trended in Obama's direction. So while McCain is making strides in the closest of states, Obama is actually pulling some of those McCain toss ups further into play, going against the prevailing perception of the moment. Alaska made a strong move toward Obama and Florida, North Carolina and Virginia edged ever so slightly to the left.
Now, I should note that this data includes the new release of Zogby Interactive polling in a series of battleground states. I'll have more on this in tomorrow's electoral college post, but in this context I should make some comments about how those numbers affect our weighted averages in those ten states. Despite the sample being self-selected, most of these numbers jibe well with recent polling in those states.
Battleground States | Obama | McCain | Barr | Nader | Not Sure/Other |
Colorado | 44% | 38% | 8% | 2% | 8% |
Florida | 40% | 43% | 5% | 1% | 12% |
Michigan | 46% | 37% | 5% | 1% | 12% |
Nevada | 39% | 38% | 10% | 3% | 10% |
New Hampshire | 38% | 42% | 11% | 1% | 9% |
New Mexico | 46% | 37% | 5% | 1% | 11% |
North Carolina | 47% | 39% | 3% | 2% | 9% |
Ohio | 41% | 36% | 8% | 1% | 13% |
Pennsylvania | 46% | 37% | 5% | 3% | 8% |
Virginia | 43% | 41% | 5% | 1% | 10% |
The exceptions are Colorado, New Hampshire, North Carolina and Ohio. And while the Ohio result shifts -- as you'll see tomorrow -- the Buckeye state back to Obama, it is still a very small change overall (and it only takes a little bit of one). Of the rest, only North Carolina changes the direction of the trend for August up to this point. And even then, the move toward McCain was minimal before the Zogby numbers were incorporated.
In the end, while it looks like an even distribution as far as the number of toss up states (and all states for that matter -- 19 - 14 in McCain's favor) heading in one candidate's direction or the other, McCain has to be given a slight edge because he has moved the three closest states (on the Electoral College Spectrum) in his direction. We should also note that Minnesota has crept toward McCain for the second consecutive month (or partial month in this case), yet remains on the upper end of Obama lean states. The situation is similar in Iowa as well. Though the Hawkeye state hasn't moved toward McCain in consecutive months, it has inched closer to McCain during August. It too remains solidly within the lean category for Obama, but if the current trend continues that could change.
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