Nevada moves into the Obama lean category.
Recent Posts:
Election Protection
An Election Night Scenario Analysis, Part II
Final Update: The Electoral College from a Different Angle
Showing posts with label electoral college projections. Show all posts
Showing posts with label electoral college projections. Show all posts
Tuesday, November 4, 2008
FHQ's Final Electoral College Map (11/4/08)
[NOTE: The map you see below is FHQ's final electoral college prediction. For a look at the final results, click here.]
[Click Map to Enlarge]
Nevada moves into the Obama lean category.
Recent Posts:
Election Protection
An Election Night Scenario Analysis, Part II
Final Update: The Electoral College from a Different Angle
Nevada moves into the Obama lean category.
Recent Posts:
Election Protection
An Election Night Scenario Analysis, Part II
Final Update: The Electoral College from a Different Angle
An Election Night Scenario Analysis, Part II
Yesterday FHQ examined how this evening would progress given the poll closing times and what we know about the competitiveness in each state. Here are those assumptions again:
1) All strong states are able to be called as soon as the polls close in those states.
2) All lean states have an hour lag before they are called.
3) All toss up states with an FHQ average over 2 points have a three hour lag before they are called.
4) All toss up states with an FHQ average under two points have a four hour lag before they are called.
Given those assumptions we can project that Obama will wrap things up about 11pm this evening. But we can handicap this scenario some. We know, for instance, that, despite the late closing times, California will go for Obama and Idaho/Utah will hand McCain their electoral votes. So let's remove that first assumption and factor all the strong states as states that have already decided for their respective candidates. Based on the McCain campaign's final weekend itinerary, we know that they are targeting New Hampshire and Pennsylvania. For the sake of this exercise then, let's assume that both are lean states. If we consult our Electoral College Spectrum, we know that the would give Obama 239 electoral votes and McCain would be spotted 137.
Before the first polls even close, this is what the map would look like:
[Click Map to Enlarge]
Between 6pm and 7:30pm polls close in Florida, Georgia, Indiana, Ohio, Virginia and West Virginia. But we don't add anything to the map just yet. Those are all still wait and see states.
[Click Map to Enlarge]
However, at 8pm we can slide Georgia and West Virginia into the McCain total and Virginia into Obama's tally. Now the Illinois senator is within 18 electoral votes of victory.
[Click Map to Enlarge]
An hour later, Colorado's polls close, but if we are assuming that Pennsylvania and New Hampshire are lean states, then Obama would cross the 270 threshold around that time.
[Click Map to Enlarge]
Early on in the evening then, we will have a very good idea based on how quickly Virginia, New Hampshire and Pennsylvania break who the next president of the United States is.
A very big thanks to Paul Gurian for the suggestion on this one.
Recent Posts:
Final Update: The Electoral College from a Different Angle
The Electoral College Map (11/4/08)
Open Thread: Election Day! AM Edition
1) All strong states are able to be called as soon as the polls close in those states.
2) All lean states have an hour lag before they are called.
3) All toss up states with an FHQ average over 2 points have a three hour lag before they are called.
4) All toss up states with an FHQ average under two points have a four hour lag before they are called.
Given those assumptions we can project that Obama will wrap things up about 11pm this evening. But we can handicap this scenario some. We know, for instance, that, despite the late closing times, California will go for Obama and Idaho/Utah will hand McCain their electoral votes. So let's remove that first assumption and factor all the strong states as states that have already decided for their respective candidates. Based on the McCain campaign's final weekend itinerary, we know that they are targeting New Hampshire and Pennsylvania. For the sake of this exercise then, let's assume that both are lean states. If we consult our Electoral College Spectrum, we know that the would give Obama 239 electoral votes and McCain would be spotted 137.
Before the first polls even close, this is what the map would look like:
[Click Map to Enlarge]Between 6pm and 7:30pm polls close in Florida, Georgia, Indiana, Ohio, Virginia and West Virginia. But we don't add anything to the map just yet. Those are all still wait and see states.
[Click Map to Enlarge]However, at 8pm we can slide Georgia and West Virginia into the McCain total and Virginia into Obama's tally. Now the Illinois senator is within 18 electoral votes of victory.
[Click Map to Enlarge]An hour later, Colorado's polls close, but if we are assuming that Pennsylvania and New Hampshire are lean states, then Obama would cross the 270 threshold around that time.
[Click Map to Enlarge]Early on in the evening then, we will have a very good idea based on how quickly Virginia, New Hampshire and Pennsylvania break who the next president of the United States is.
A very big thanks to Paul Gurian for the suggestion on this one.
Recent Posts:
Final Update: The Electoral College from a Different Angle
The Electoral College Map (11/4/08)
Open Thread: Election Day! AM Edition
Final Update: The Electoral College from a Different Angle
Let's take one final look at the Electoral College via the 50% Rule from Scott. For those who missed the first few versions, you can find the first here and the updates here and here. Here's the premise (...from the original post):
There are two basic questions being asked:
1) Is one of the candidates above the 50% mark in a state currently?
2) Has one of the candidates been the only one to surpass 50% in any reputable state poll?
If the answer is yes to both, then that implies there has been some consistency to the candidate being or having been over 50% in those averages. Those are the states that are designated solid states for either McCain or Obama.
If the answer to the second question is yes but the answer to the first question is no, that state is a lean state. In other words, there is some potential there for one of the candidates to cross that threshold. It has happened before. However, that support has either waned and is dormant or is latent in the current period.
If the answers to both questions are no, then that state is a toss up according to this metric. In this scenario, neither candidate has demonstrated the level of support in the polls to translate to an outright win in the state. As Scott put it:
"There are two different ways a state can end up a toss-up. One is to have neither candidate reach 50 in any poll since McCain became the presumptive nominee. The other is to have both candidates do it, but to have neither break 50 in the pollster.com average."
Finally, Scott includes a couple of caveats to this last update:
"There have been two important changes in methodology for this last map, both designed to make it more sensitive to more recent information:
Here's the analysis from Scott:
"Probably the most important changes from the last map are that Ohio has slipped to an Obama lean, but Nevada has firmed up to a solid state for Obama. That still leaves Obama with 287 solid electoral votes, well above the threshold for the Presidency.
[Click Map to Enlarge]
"North Dakota and Rhode Island have slipped to toss up status. For North Dakota that may be legitimate; a recent Research 2000 poll shows McCain up 47 to 46. Rhode Island, on the other hand, is almost certainly an artifact of some strange recent polls by local outifts; the last three show 19, 24, and 26% of the voters still undecided. They also show double-digit leads for Obama, so don't think that Rhode Island is really in play.
"On McCain's side of the ledger, Georgia and South Dakota have firmed up for him again, but that will be small solace for the Republicans [tonight]."
Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (11/4/08)
Open Thread: Election Day! AM Edition
An Election Night Scenario Analysis
There are two basic questions being asked:
1) Is one of the candidates above the 50% mark in a state currently?
2) Has one of the candidates been the only one to surpass 50% in any reputable state poll?
If the answer is yes to both, then that implies there has been some consistency to the candidate being or having been over 50% in those averages. Those are the states that are designated solid states for either McCain or Obama.
If the answer to the second question is yes but the answer to the first question is no, that state is a lean state. In other words, there is some potential there for one of the candidates to cross that threshold. It has happened before. However, that support has either waned and is dormant or is latent in the current period.
If the answers to both questions are no, then that state is a toss up according to this metric. In this scenario, neither candidate has demonstrated the level of support in the polls to translate to an outright win in the state. As Scott put it:
"The idea is that if a state consistently polls 50-47, regardless of the methodology of the poll or the state of the national race, it's very hard for the trailing candidate to win. But if a state has a lot of polls like 46-40, but the leading candidate never breaks 50, the trailing candidate has a chance."He added:
"There are two different ways a state can end up a toss-up. One is to have neither candidate reach 50 in any poll since McCain became the presumptive nominee. The other is to have both candidates do it, but to have neither break 50 in the pollster.com average."
Finally, Scott includes a couple of caveats to this last update:
"There have been two important changes in methodology for this last map, both designed to make it more sensitive to more recent information:
- The "more sensitive" setting was used at Pollster.com.
- To determine "lean" states, I only looked at polls taken between the first debate and now."
| Changes (Oct. 27- Nov. 3) | |||
| State | Before | After | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nevada | Obama lean | Strong Obama | |
| Ohio | Strong Obama | Obama lean | |
| Rhode Island | Obama lean | Toss Up | |
| North Dakota | McCain lean | Toss Up | |
| South Dakota | McCain lean | Strong McCain | |
Here's the analysis from Scott:
"Probably the most important changes from the last map are that Ohio has slipped to an Obama lean, but Nevada has firmed up to a solid state for Obama. That still leaves Obama with 287 solid electoral votes, well above the threshold for the Presidency.
[Click Map to Enlarge]"North Dakota and Rhode Island have slipped to toss up status. For North Dakota that may be legitimate; a recent Research 2000 poll shows McCain up 47 to 46. Rhode Island, on the other hand, is almost certainly an artifact of some strange recent polls by local outifts; the last three show 19, 24, and 26% of the voters still undecided. They also show double-digit leads for Obama, so don't think that Rhode Island is really in play.
"On McCain's side of the ledger, Georgia and South Dakota have firmed up for him again, but that will be small solace for the Republicans [tonight]."
Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (11/4/08)
Open Thread: Election Day! AM Edition
An Election Night Scenario Analysis
The Electoral College Map (11/4/08)
NOTE: In the interest of time, I'm going to keep this short. [I'll also add in the polls a little later on, but I wanted to get this up.]
On the last full day of campaigning before election day on Monday, we were treated to a mountain of new polling. In all, there were 52 new polls from 20 states and they gave us a relatively clear picture of what to expect today. Now, we shouldn't get wrapped up in one day's worth of polling on Election Eve anymore than we should after, say, the conventions, but once those polls are factored in to FHQ's graduated weighted average of all the polls in a state since Super Tuesday, we get a pretty good idea of where the candidates are relative to each other in each of the states.
On Election Day, that idea looks a lot like an Obama victory. There is actually no movement on Obama's side of the partisan line today, but Georgia slips out of the strong McCain category and into the McCain lean area. Will the Peach state move even more toward Obama once the votes are cast today and tabulated this evening? Possibly. The Pollster trend line is very instructive. McCain is moving down and Obama is moving up. The only question is whether Obama is actually able to pass McCain today or whether, if that trend line continued on its current course, that would happen if the election were next Tuesday instead of today. Well, that's why we cast our votes. We'll see soon enough.
Still, centering in on just those strong Obama states provides some insight. As we've said, the Illinois senator is just six electoral votes shy of 270 with those strong states alone. All he has to do is pick up Colorado or Virginia or Nevada or Ohio or Florida. Obama could even lose Pennsylvania and add Colorado and Virginia to win.
...or Ohio.
...or Florida.
[Click Map to Enlarge]
In other words, Obama is poised to become the 44th President of the United States. There was no November surprise. [Well, this coal thing could prove consequential at the margins, but that hardly qualifies as a surprise.] And the only things left unknown are turnout and the Bradley effect.
Will turnout be as high or higher than expected? Well, as I went past our polling station to catch the bus this morning, the line was out the door, around the building and into the fire truck garage at Athens Firehouse #7. But it was like that on a misty morning four years ago as well.
Will there be an above average Bradley effect? As we've shown, an average Bradley effect just won't do it for McCain. It would be closer, but Obama would likely emerge victorious.
That said, the junior senator from Illinois stands to gain 338 electoral votes when all the votes are counted if our map is correct. However, as we've discussed in light of recent polling, Obama can extend that number if this turns into a wave election. It wouldn't be unexpected if Obama swept the toss up states on both sides of the partisan line and stretched into the McCain lean states. Is that likely? Well, not as likely as Obama winning those states up to the partisan line (where light blue turns to pink), but it is certainly possible. Missouri is as close to a tie as it can get right now -- by our measure and in recent polling. Both the Show-Me state and North Carolina are within where Florida is on the opposite side of the line and with the way the momentum is heading, seem more likely candidates to change sides than the Sunshine state. Essentially the further you go into the red or blue the less likely it is that Obama or McCain, respectively, are able to peel off those states from their opponent.
Today's Watch List is, well, superfluous. It appears that some last-minute Zogby polls will be the last ones to incorporate into FHQ's averages. However, what the list does now is provide an idea of where these states are in relation to the various lines of demarcation.
What's on tap for today at FHQ?
1) We've got an update from Scott on his 50% Rule Electoral College Map.
2) I'll have the final map update up mid-afternoon.
3) FHQ is lucky enough to be married to a photographer. I may talk her into bringing the camera with us to vote today. If so, I'll post the pictures.
4) I will also tweak the Election Night Scenario Analysis.
5) Last but not least, I'll be liveblogging election night. And yeah, I'll have some nice chronological maps to look at for years to come, so that we have a record of the evening's progression. One thing we lack from the networks is what that looks like. To them, once a state is colored in that's it.
I hope to see everyone here this evening and if you haven't already, go on out and vote. It's election day! Or as someone told me in a surprised voice on the bus this morning, "Oh, it's president day!"
It sure is.
Recent Posts:
Open Thread: Election Day! AM Edition
An Election Night Scenario Analysis
The Electoral College Map (11/3/08)
On the last full day of campaigning before election day on Monday, we were treated to a mountain of new polling. In all, there were 52 new polls from 20 states and they gave us a relatively clear picture of what to expect today. Now, we shouldn't get wrapped up in one day's worth of polling on Election Eve anymore than we should after, say, the conventions, but once those polls are factored in to FHQ's graduated weighted average of all the polls in a state since Super Tuesday, we get a pretty good idea of where the candidates are relative to each other in each of the states.
On Election Day, that idea looks a lot like an Obama victory. There is actually no movement on Obama's side of the partisan line today, but Georgia slips out of the strong McCain category and into the McCain lean area. Will the Peach state move even more toward Obama once the votes are cast today and tabulated this evening? Possibly. The Pollster trend line is very instructive. McCain is moving down and Obama is moving up. The only question is whether Obama is actually able to pass McCain today or whether, if that trend line continued on its current course, that would happen if the election were next Tuesday instead of today. Well, that's why we cast our votes. We'll see soon enough.
| Changes (Nov. 3) | |||
| State | Before | After | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Georgia | Strong McCain | McCain lean | |
Still, centering in on just those strong Obama states provides some insight. As we've said, the Illinois senator is just six electoral votes shy of 270 with those strong states alone. All he has to do is pick up Colorado or Virginia or Nevada or Ohio or Florida. Obama could even lose Pennsylvania and add Colorado and Virginia to win.
...or Ohio.
...or Florida.
[Click Map to Enlarge]In other words, Obama is poised to become the 44th President of the United States. There was no November surprise. [Well, this coal thing could prove consequential at the margins, but that hardly qualifies as a surprise.] And the only things left unknown are turnout and the Bradley effect.
Will turnout be as high or higher than expected? Well, as I went past our polling station to catch the bus this morning, the line was out the door, around the building and into the fire truck garage at Athens Firehouse #7. But it was like that on a misty morning four years ago as well.
Will there be an above average Bradley effect? As we've shown, an average Bradley effect just won't do it for McCain. It would be closer, but Obama would likely emerge victorious.
| The Electoral College Spectrum* -- (11/4/08) | ||||
| HI-4 (7)** | ME-4 (157) | NM-5 (264/279) | ND-3 (160) | SC-8 (66) |
| VT-3 (10) | OR-7 (164) | CO-9*** (273/274) | WV-5 (157) | KY-8 (58) |
| NY-31 (41) | WA-11 (175) | VA-13 (286/265) | GA-15 (152) | TN-11 (50) |
| DE-3 (44) | NJ-15 (190) | NV-5 (291/252) | AZ-10 (137) | KS-6 (39) |
| IL-21 (65) | IA-7 (197) | OH-20 (311/247) | SD-3 (127) | NE-5 (33) |
| RI-4 (69) | MN-10 (207) | FL-27 (338/227) | MS-6 (124) | AL-9 (28) |
| MD-10 (79) | WI-10 (217) | MO-11 (349/200) | AR-6 (118) | WY-3 (19) |
| MA-12 (91) | PA-21 (238) | NC-15 (364/189) | LA-9 (112) | ID-4 (16) |
| CA-55 (146) | MI-17 (255) | IN-11 (375/174) | TX-34 (103) | UT-5 (12) |
| CT-7 (153) | NH-4 (259) | MT-3 (163) | AK-3 (69) | OK-7 (7) |
| *Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. **The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, McCain won all the states up to and including Colorado (all Obama's toss up states plus Colorado), he would have 274 electoral votes. Both candidates numbers are only totaled through their rival's toss up states. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and McCain's is on the right in italics. ***Colorado is the state where Obama crosses (or McCain would cross) the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. It is currently favoring Obama, thus the blue text in that cell. | ||||
That said, the junior senator from Illinois stands to gain 338 electoral votes when all the votes are counted if our map is correct. However, as we've discussed in light of recent polling, Obama can extend that number if this turns into a wave election. It wouldn't be unexpected if Obama swept the toss up states on both sides of the partisan line and stretched into the McCain lean states. Is that likely? Well, not as likely as Obama winning those states up to the partisan line (where light blue turns to pink), but it is certainly possible. Missouri is as close to a tie as it can get right now -- by our measure and in recent polling. Both the Show-Me state and North Carolina are within where Florida is on the opposite side of the line and with the way the momentum is heading, seem more likely candidates to change sides than the Sunshine state. Essentially the further you go into the red or blue the less likely it is that Obama or McCain, respectively, are able to peel off those states from their opponent.
| The Watch List* | |||
| State | Switch | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona | from Strong McCain | to McCain lean | |
| Florida | from Toss Up Obama | to Toss Up McCain | |
| Georgia | from McCain lean | to Strong McCain | |
| Michigan | from Strong Obama | to Obama lean | |
| Missouri | from Toss Up McCain | to Toss Up Obama | |
| Nevada | from Toss Up Obama | to Obama lean | |
| Montana | from McCain lean | to Toss Up McCain | |
| New Hampshire | from Strong Obama | to Obama lean | |
| New Mexico | from Strong Obama | to Obama lean | |
| North Carolina | from Toss Up McCain | to Toss Up Obama | |
| Ohio | from Toss Up Obama | to Obama lean | |
| Virginia | from Obama lean | to Toss Up Obama | |
| West Virginia | from McCain lean | to Strong McCain | |
| *Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories. | |||
Today's Watch List is, well, superfluous. It appears that some last-minute Zogby polls will be the last ones to incorporate into FHQ's averages. However, what the list does now is provide an idea of where these states are in relation to the various lines of demarcation.
What's on tap for today at FHQ?
1) We've got an update from Scott on his 50% Rule Electoral College Map.
2) I'll have the final map update up mid-afternoon.
3) FHQ is lucky enough to be married to a photographer. I may talk her into bringing the camera with us to vote today. If so, I'll post the pictures.
4) I will also tweak the Election Night Scenario Analysis.
5) Last but not least, I'll be liveblogging election night. And yeah, I'll have some nice chronological maps to look at for years to come, so that we have a record of the evening's progression. One thing we lack from the networks is what that looks like. To them, once a state is colored in that's it.
I hope to see everyone here this evening and if you haven't already, go on out and vote. It's election day! Or as someone told me in a surprised voice on the bus this morning, "Oh, it's president day!"
It sure is.
Recent Posts:
Open Thread: Election Day! AM Edition
An Election Night Scenario Analysis
The Electoral College Map (11/3/08)
Monday, November 3, 2008
An Election Night Scenario Analysis
I've seen this done on a couple of other sites, but let's assume, just for the heck of it, that FHQ is right and Obama wins the presidency by a 338-200 count in the electoral college. Well, how would Tuesday night play out if each of the 50 states plus DC broke the way our map shows? If you use the poll closing times that The Green Papers has posted, then the evening would likely progress something like below.
[Why post one map with all the different times when you can post 10 of them?]
First let's make a few basic assumptions:
1) All strong states are able to be called as soon as the polls close in those states.
2) All lean states have an hour lag before they are called.
3) All toss up states with an FHQ average over 2 points have a three hour lag before they are called.
4) All toss up states with an FHQ average under two points have a four hour lag before they are called.
One hour before the first polls close, we'll start with a blank slate.
[Click Map to Enlarge]
Indiana and Kentucky start the night off with 6pm closings in the Eastern time zone areas of their states. I won't do this for any of the other states, but I'm going to assume that the networks will want something to talk about early. Even without all the polls in Kentucky closed, they'll call the Bluegrass state for McCain. Indiana? Well, it'll be a bit longer.
[Click Map to Enlarge]
Though Georgia may make it into the lean area after this final day, it is still a strong state here. As such Georgia and South Carolina join Kentucky as early states going for McCain. Add Vermont to Obama's tally at 7pm and put Virginia into the wait and see category. Like Indiana an hour earlier, Florida has a first wave of closings in the Eastern time zone. The count at 7pm: 31-3, McCain.
[Click Map to Enlarge]
At 7:30pm Ohio and West Virginia close their polls. If 2004 and the primaries earlier this year are any indication, then there will likely be an extension of the polling hours in the Buckeye state. However, both of these states are outside of the strong category and will have a wait before being called for either candidate.
[Click Map to Enlarge]
If 7pm brought a mini-wave of closings, 8pm brings the first big wave of the evening. Illinois, New Jersey, Pennsylvania and Virginia (after the hour lag) move into the Obama column, opening up a small lead for the Illinois senator. McCain adds a couple of states from the Deep South and Oklahoma. Missouri, meanwhile is placed in the wait and see category for the time being.
[Click Map to Enlarge]
Thirty minutes later, Arkansas moves into the red for McCain and North Carolina holds off until later.
[Click Map to Enlarge]
At 9pm, New York and Texas cancel each other out, but Obama adds Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire and Wisconsin while McCain gets Arizona, Louisiana and a handful of mountain west and prairie states. Colorado's polls close, too, but a call will wait for an hour. Obama's tally approaches 200 and McCain breaks 100 electoral votes.
[Click Map to Enlarge]
At 10pm Obama adds Colorado and Iowa as McCain grabs Kansas. Polls close in Montana and Nevada as well, but both will have to wait for a call as a lean state and toss up state respectively.
[Click Map to Enlarge]
Already at 209, Obama adds the west coast states at 11pm but Florida and Ohio also break for the Illinois senator. That big rush of electora votes puts Obama over the top and he becomes the 44th president.
[Click Map to Enlarge]
At midnight, Alaska's polls close and brings the day to a close with only a few polling sites still open in the Last Frontier and Nevada and North Carolina outstanding. Both go for McCain in the wee hours of November 5.
[Click Map to Enlarge]
Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (11/3/08)
FHQ vs. The Talking Heads
The Electoral College Map (11/2/08)
[Why post one map with all the different times when you can post 10 of them?]
First let's make a few basic assumptions:
1) All strong states are able to be called as soon as the polls close in those states.
2) All lean states have an hour lag before they are called.
3) All toss up states with an FHQ average over 2 points have a three hour lag before they are called.
4) All toss up states with an FHQ average under two points have a four hour lag before they are called.
One hour before the first polls close, we'll start with a blank slate.
[Click Map to Enlarge]Indiana and Kentucky start the night off with 6pm closings in the Eastern time zone areas of their states. I won't do this for any of the other states, but I'm going to assume that the networks will want something to talk about early. Even without all the polls in Kentucky closed, they'll call the Bluegrass state for McCain. Indiana? Well, it'll be a bit longer.
[Click Map to Enlarge]Though Georgia may make it into the lean area after this final day, it is still a strong state here. As such Georgia and South Carolina join Kentucky as early states going for McCain. Add Vermont to Obama's tally at 7pm and put Virginia into the wait and see category. Like Indiana an hour earlier, Florida has a first wave of closings in the Eastern time zone. The count at 7pm: 31-3, McCain.
[Click Map to Enlarge]At 7:30pm Ohio and West Virginia close their polls. If 2004 and the primaries earlier this year are any indication, then there will likely be an extension of the polling hours in the Buckeye state. However, both of these states are outside of the strong category and will have a wait before being called for either candidate.
[Click Map to Enlarge]If 7pm brought a mini-wave of closings, 8pm brings the first big wave of the evening. Illinois, New Jersey, Pennsylvania and Virginia (after the hour lag) move into the Obama column, opening up a small lead for the Illinois senator. McCain adds a couple of states from the Deep South and Oklahoma. Missouri, meanwhile is placed in the wait and see category for the time being.
[Click Map to Enlarge]Thirty minutes later, Arkansas moves into the red for McCain and North Carolina holds off until later.
[Click Map to Enlarge]At 9pm, New York and Texas cancel each other out, but Obama adds Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire and Wisconsin while McCain gets Arizona, Louisiana and a handful of mountain west and prairie states. Colorado's polls close, too, but a call will wait for an hour. Obama's tally approaches 200 and McCain breaks 100 electoral votes.
[Click Map to Enlarge]At 10pm Obama adds Colorado and Iowa as McCain grabs Kansas. Polls close in Montana and Nevada as well, but both will have to wait for a call as a lean state and toss up state respectively.
[Click Map to Enlarge]Already at 209, Obama adds the west coast states at 11pm but Florida and Ohio also break for the Illinois senator. That big rush of electora votes puts Obama over the top and he becomes the 44th president.
[Click Map to Enlarge]At midnight, Alaska's polls close and brings the day to a close with only a few polling sites still open in the Last Frontier and Nevada and North Carolina outstanding. Both go for McCain in the wee hours of November 5.
[Click Map to Enlarge]Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (11/3/08)
FHQ vs. The Talking Heads
The Electoral College Map (11/2/08)
Sunday, November 2, 2008
The Electoral College Map (11/3/08)
Happy Election Eve everyone! Yes, that's right, there's only one more day in this campaign (...except if it's not the last day. Buckle up Floridians!). FHQ has been at it nearly as long as Barack Obama has been in the race. My intent was not to follow him but to keep up with the movement of primaries and caucuses, as that effort was ramping up in the late winter/early spring of 2007 when this blog started. Anyway, something tells me folks aren't clicking their way over to read a history of this blog.
How about that race for the Whate House? Well, FHQ has not weighed in with an official gut/heart prediction, but as I said yesterday in the examination of other predictions out there, our 338-200 electoral vote tally is not likely to change between now and tomorrow. Florida continues to slightly favor Obama in the polls out Monday morning, North Carolina is drifting back toward McCain and Missouri is as close to a draw as it is going to get (...if our methodology is to be believed). Those are the only three states where a category switch would mean a shift in the electoral vote totals for either candidate and it doesn't look like any of the three will move from where they are now. [But I could be wrong. We're likely to get a lot of polling today.]
Those three states aside, FHQ's current electoral vote distribution is basically equivalent to the average of twenty other predictions now. Is that where we think things will end up tomorrow? I don't know, but my gut is telling me to stand by the statistics behind our map as a guide. I'll hopefully have something more official up in the morning.
Regardless, Sunday brought 14 new polls from 12 states. And yes, Mason-Dixon shows McCain ahead in Missouri, Ohio and North Carolina, the latter two in which Obama has been ahead in recent polling. However, Obama hadn't been ahead in any of the previous Mason-Dixon polls of those three states. It should be said that Missouri held firm at +1 for McCain since the last Mason-Dixon poll and both North Carolina and Ohio moved toward McCain by 3 and 1 points, respectively. In fact, among that series of Mason-Dixon polling, the lead the firm showed for Obama in Virginia represented the first such lead in the state for the Illinois senator from Mason-Dixon.
Speaking of Virginia, the Old Dominion along with Pennsylvania both appear to be in the midst of a waning campaign narrowing effect. Both states (or commonwealths) had flirted with or surpassed the ten point mark in recent polling, but have since seen that as a peak that has given way to a mid- to upper single digit group of polls in each. Neither, though, is at risk of switching categories at this point. Virginia is still solidly within the Obama lean category and Pennsylvania is too far into the strong Obama category to reverse now.
[Click Map to Enlarge]
But, as I said, the 338-200 electoral vote distribution today is the same as it was a day ago. Obama's strong category was bolstered by the re-addition of New Mexico as day after the PPP poll of the Land of Enchantment work its way out of the most recent poll status. The Illinois senator is back up to 264 electoral votes in his strong category, just six electoral votes shy of what is needed to win. Claim Colorado and it is over. Of course, I'm sure the Obama campaign has its sights set on something a bit further beyond the victory line than that. And from the looks of the other predictions and the shifting of the MSM discussion to the Senate races, that's likely to be the case. How likely? Well, we'll know sometime tomorrow.
Right now, McCain either has to sweep the toss up states and win Virginia and Colorado or he has to sweep the toss up states and win Pennsylvania. That probably isn't the ideal number of paths to 270 for McCain. Things looked much better for the Arizona senator pre-Lehman.
Still, if you are watching the polls today, keep an eye on all the toss up states but pay particular attention to Florida, Missoui and North Carolina. If there are to be any electoral vote changes here before tomorrow it will come from some combination of those states.
Last Day!
Recent Posts:
FHQ vs. The Talking Heads
The Electoral College Map (11/2/08)
The Electoral College Map (11/1/08)
How about that race for the Whate House? Well, FHQ has not weighed in with an official gut/heart prediction, but as I said yesterday in the examination of other predictions out there, our 338-200 electoral vote tally is not likely to change between now and tomorrow. Florida continues to slightly favor Obama in the polls out Monday morning, North Carolina is drifting back toward McCain and Missouri is as close to a draw as it is going to get (...if our methodology is to be believed). Those are the only three states where a category switch would mean a shift in the electoral vote totals for either candidate and it doesn't look like any of the three will move from where they are now. [But I could be wrong. We're likely to get a lot of polling today.]
Those three states aside, FHQ's current electoral vote distribution is basically equivalent to the average of twenty other predictions now. Is that where we think things will end up tomorrow? I don't know, but my gut is telling me to stand by the statistics behind our map as a guide. I'll hopefully have something more official up in the morning.
| New Polls (Nov. 2) | |||
| State | Poll | Margin | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Colorado | Mason-Dixon/NBC | +5 | |
| Illinois | Rasmussen | +22 | |
| Kentucky | Survey USA | +16 | |
| Maine | Rasmussen | +13 | |
| Minnesota | Star Tribune | +11 | |
| Missouri | Mason-Dixon/NBC | +1 | |
| Nevada | Mason-Dixon/NBC | +4 | |
| New Mexico | Albuquerque Journal | +8 | |
| North Carolina | Mason-Dixon/NBC | +3 | |
| Ohio | Mason-Dixon/NBC | +2 | |
| Pennsylvania | Rasmussen | +6 | |
| Pennsylvania | Survey USA | +7 | |
| Virginia | Survey USA | +4 | |
| Virginia | Public Policy Polling | +6 | |
Regardless, Sunday brought 14 new polls from 12 states. And yes, Mason-Dixon shows McCain ahead in Missouri, Ohio and North Carolina, the latter two in which Obama has been ahead in recent polling. However, Obama hadn't been ahead in any of the previous Mason-Dixon polls of those three states. It should be said that Missouri held firm at +1 for McCain since the last Mason-Dixon poll and both North Carolina and Ohio moved toward McCain by 3 and 1 points, respectively. In fact, among that series of Mason-Dixon polling, the lead the firm showed for Obama in Virginia represented the first such lead in the state for the Illinois senator from Mason-Dixon.
| Changes (Nov. 2) | |||
| State | Before | After | |
|---|---|---|---|
| New Mexico | Obama lean | Strong Obama | |
Speaking of Virginia, the Old Dominion along with Pennsylvania both appear to be in the midst of a waning campaign narrowing effect. Both states (or commonwealths) had flirted with or surpassed the ten point mark in recent polling, but have since seen that as a peak that has given way to a mid- to upper single digit group of polls in each. Neither, though, is at risk of switching categories at this point. Virginia is still solidly within the Obama lean category and Pennsylvania is too far into the strong Obama category to reverse now.
[Click Map to Enlarge]But, as I said, the 338-200 electoral vote distribution today is the same as it was a day ago. Obama's strong category was bolstered by the re-addition of New Mexico as day after the PPP poll of the Land of Enchantment work its way out of the most recent poll status. The Illinois senator is back up to 264 electoral votes in his strong category, just six electoral votes shy of what is needed to win. Claim Colorado and it is over. Of course, I'm sure the Obama campaign has its sights set on something a bit further beyond the victory line than that. And from the looks of the other predictions and the shifting of the MSM discussion to the Senate races, that's likely to be the case. How likely? Well, we'll know sometime tomorrow.
| The Electoral College Spectrum* | ||||
| HI-4 (7)** | ME-4 (157) | NM-5 (264/279) | MT-3 (160) | AK-3 (61) |
| VT-3 (10) | OR-7 (164) | CO-9*** (273/274) | WV-5 (157) | KY-8 (58) |
| NY-31 (41) | NJ-15 (179) | VA-13 (286/265) | GA-15 (152) | TN-11 (50) |
| DE-3 (44) | WA-11 (190) | NV-5 (291/252) | AZ-10 (137) | KS-6 (39) |
| IL-21 (65) | IA-7 (197) | OH-20 (311/247) | SD-3 (127) | NE-5 (33) |
| RI-4 (69) | MN-10 (207) | FL-27 (338/227) | MS-6 (124) | AL-9 (28) |
| MD-10 (79) | WI-10 (217) | MO-11 (349/200) | AR-6 (118) | WY-3 (19) |
| MA-12 (91) | PA-21 (238) | NC-15 (364/189) | LA-9 (112) | ID-4 (16) |
| CA-55 (146) | MI-17 (255) | IN-11 (375/174) | TX-34 (103) | UT-5 (12) |
| CT-7 (153) | NH-4 (259) | ND-3 (163) | SC-8 (69) | OK-7 (7) |
| *Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. **The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, McCain won all the states up to and including Colorado (all Obama's toss up states plus Colorado), he would have 274 electoral votes. Both candidates numbers are only totaled through their rival's toss up states. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and McCain's is on the right in italics. ***Colorado is the state where Obama crosses (or McCain would cross) the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. It is currently favoring Obama, thus the blue text in that cell. | ||||
Right now, McCain either has to sweep the toss up states and win Virginia and Colorado or he has to sweep the toss up states and win Pennsylvania. That probably isn't the ideal number of paths to 270 for McCain. Things looked much better for the Arizona senator pre-Lehman.
| The Watch List* | |||
| State | Switch | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona | from Strong McCain | to McCain lean | |
| Florida | from Toss Up Obama | to Toss Up McCain | |
| Georgia | from Strong McCain | to McCain lean | |
| Michigan | from Strong Obama | to Obama lean | |
| Missouri | from Toss Up McCain | to Toss Up Obama | |
| Nevada | from Toss Up Obama | to Obama lean | |
| New Hampshire | from Strong Obama | to Obama lean | |
| New Mexico | from Strong Obama | to Obama lean | |
| North Carolina | from Toss Up McCain | to Toss Up Obama | |
| Ohio | from Toss Up Obama | to Obama lean | |
| Virginia | from Obama lean | to Toss Up Obama | |
| West Virginia | from McCain lean | to Strong McCain | |
| *Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories. | |||
Still, if you are watching the polls today, keep an eye on all the toss up states but pay particular attention to Florida, Missoui and North Carolina. If there are to be any electoral vote changes here before tomorrow it will come from some combination of those states.
Last Day!
Recent Posts:
FHQ vs. The Talking Heads
The Electoral College Map (11/2/08)
The Electoral College Map (11/1/08)
The Electoral College Map (11/2/08)
Saturday brought 17 new polls from 14 states, and of those polls, few did anything to in any way shake the weighted averages from their foundations. Sure, there was the ARG poll out of Arkansas showing the McCain margin there at just seven, but you'll excuse me if I push that result off to the side based on the "boy who cried wolf" rule. ARG has made it difficult at times to take their numbers seriously. Most generally hover around where other polling firms have the states, but they also have results like that West Virginia +8 for Obama a couple of weeks back. All this Arkansas poll is doing is getting Democrats' hopes up (kind of like Chuck Todd referencing the closeness of South Carolina for the second week in a row on Meet the Press). Now, I could be wrong, but the data/methodology FHQ is working with is telling us otherwise with just two days left in this thing.
With that in mind, the strong states form a baseline for each candidate. Obama is ahead in our count there by 259-152. Once the focus shifts beyond that to the next layer is where we have to add some caveats. There are relatively few lean states on both sides, but the ones on the McCain side of the partisan line are being brought up in terms of going to Obama more than the opposite (Obama leans to McCain) simply because of where the last minute momentum appears to be. In other words, the battle here at the end is in states that McCain is seeking to keep in red. If you look back to four years ago, John Kerry was in a similar position, playing defense to keep states like Pennsylvania in the blue. The discussion then is more about North Dakota or Montana going to Obama than McCain being able to peel off Colorado. But that may be more a function of McCain needing a state like Colorado than anything else. The media have certainly shifted from discussing those McCain scenarios to focus on where Obama can potentially run up the score.
Yes, McCain is still targeting Pennsylvania and New Hampshire (beyond lean state status as strong states), but to reach 270 electoral votes, the Arizona senator will need one or both to get there. The 72 hour campaign, then, is centered a bit right of center on the Electoral College Spectrum below, among the toss up states and some/all of those McCain lean states. In terms of adding to that baseline, then, Obama is in a superior position relative to McCain. The Illinois senator is ahead in more toss up states, and should Tuesday turn into a wave election, he could swing the remaining toss up states on McCain side of the partisan line and stretch into the lean states as well. Some of the more optimistic scenarios have Obama extending into the strong McCain area as well.
[Incidentally, if you haven't checked out the comments from yesterday's map update, do so and weigh in on what you think both Obama's ceiling and floor are in terms of the number of electoral college votes. Administrative Note: No, that may not appear fair. But at this point, after we have in various ways covered/dismissed many of the possible McCain victory scenarios, and considering an Obama win is likely given the current data, the focus is on Obama's floor/ceiling rather than McCain's.]
[Click Map to Enlarge]
As it stands now, though, the tally remains steady at 338-200 for Obama. New Mexico shifted back into the Obama lean category a day after the PPP poll in the Land of Enchantment vaulted the state into the strong Obama category. This is one of the potential weaknesses of our methodology: that when the most heavily weighted poll is an outlier -- as that PPP poll seems to have been -- the average can jump more than it likely should and pull a state into another category in the process. That was the case with New Mexico yesterday/today. With a ten point spread between those last two polls (+17 to +7), there was going to be a drop in the average. And that drop brought the average to a point just below that strong/lean threshold (+6.98 for Obama).
With all that said, New Mexico once again jumps to the top of the middle column on the Electoral College Spectrum, just above Colorado. Arkansas also moves up a couple of spots on the strength of that ARG poll (which may be the final word out of the Natural state). Other than that, though, the map and the Spectrum remain decidedly unaltered. Yes, our measure stresses a certain level of consistency, but at the same time, that steadiness has held pat in many cases for quite a while (Pardon the borderline redundance). That more than anything tells us something about the current state of the race with just 48 hours to go. Obama is not only in the lead, he has a lead that will going to be tough to overcome.
As I said yesterday, even if the most likely changes were to occur -- those in the Watch List -- it would net McCain just one additional electoral vote. Even if only the most advantageous changes occur (Florida turns pink and Missouri and North Carolina stay McCain toss ups), that only knocks Obama's tally down to 311 electoral votes. And that, my friends, is still north of 270.
Two days left.
------------------------------------------------------
Postscript: I should make a note on Virginia. The last three polls (Friday's Rasmussen poll, Saturday's Mason-Dixon poll and today's Survey USA poll) all show the race in the Old Dominion narrowing. Virginia had been immune to the typical contraction that we see overall down the stretch, but may have entered into that phase now. While you may start seeing some other electoral college analysis sites start to come back, you likely won't see that here. All three polls are at or around the state's +3.33 average margin for Obama. In other words, Virginia is not that likely dip below that 3 point lean/toss up threshold between now and Tuesday.
Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (11/1/08)
Happy Halloween from FHQ
The Electoral College Map (10/31/08)
| New Polls (Nov. 1) | |||
| State | Poll | Margin | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arkansas | ARG | +7 | |
| California | Survey USA | +24 | |
| Florida | Datamar | 0 | |
| Florida | Mason-Dixon | +2 | |
| Florida | ARG | +4 | |
| Indiana | ARG | 0 | |
| Iowa | Selzer | +17 | |
| Kentucky* | Research 2000/Daily Kos | +17 | |
| Michigan | Selzer | +16 | |
| Minnesota* | Research 2000/Daily Kos | +15 | |
| New Jersey | Monmouth | +21 | |
| New Mexico | Survey USA | +7 | |
| Oregon* | Research 2000/Daily Kos | +16 | |
| Oregon | Rasmussen | +12 | |
| Pennsylvania | ARG | +6 | |
| Pennsylvania | Rasmussen | +4 | |
| South Dakota | Rasmussen | +9 | |
| Utah | Dan Jones | +25 | |
| Virginia | Mason-Dixon | +3 | |
| Washington | University of Washington | +12 | |
| *Denotes a poll that was included in yesterday's graphics but omitted from the table of polls. | |||
With that in mind, the strong states form a baseline for each candidate. Obama is ahead in our count there by 259-152. Once the focus shifts beyond that to the next layer is where we have to add some caveats. There are relatively few lean states on both sides, but the ones on the McCain side of the partisan line are being brought up in terms of going to Obama more than the opposite (Obama leans to McCain) simply because of where the last minute momentum appears to be. In other words, the battle here at the end is in states that McCain is seeking to keep in red. If you look back to four years ago, John Kerry was in a similar position, playing defense to keep states like Pennsylvania in the blue. The discussion then is more about North Dakota or Montana going to Obama than McCain being able to peel off Colorado. But that may be more a function of McCain needing a state like Colorado than anything else. The media have certainly shifted from discussing those McCain scenarios to focus on where Obama can potentially run up the score.
| Changes (Nov. 1) | |||
| State | Before | After | |
|---|---|---|---|
| New Mexico | Strong Obama | Obama lean | |
Yes, McCain is still targeting Pennsylvania and New Hampshire (beyond lean state status as strong states), but to reach 270 electoral votes, the Arizona senator will need one or both to get there. The 72 hour campaign, then, is centered a bit right of center on the Electoral College Spectrum below, among the toss up states and some/all of those McCain lean states. In terms of adding to that baseline, then, Obama is in a superior position relative to McCain. The Illinois senator is ahead in more toss up states, and should Tuesday turn into a wave election, he could swing the remaining toss up states on McCain side of the partisan line and stretch into the lean states as well. Some of the more optimistic scenarios have Obama extending into the strong McCain area as well.
[Incidentally, if you haven't checked out the comments from yesterday's map update, do so and weigh in on what you think both Obama's ceiling and floor are in terms of the number of electoral college votes. Administrative Note: No, that may not appear fair. But at this point, after we have in various ways covered/dismissed many of the possible McCain victory scenarios, and considering an Obama win is likely given the current data, the focus is on Obama's floor/ceiling rather than McCain's.]
[Click Map to Enlarge]As it stands now, though, the tally remains steady at 338-200 for Obama. New Mexico shifted back into the Obama lean category a day after the PPP poll in the Land of Enchantment vaulted the state into the strong Obama category. This is one of the potential weaknesses of our methodology: that when the most heavily weighted poll is an outlier -- as that PPP poll seems to have been -- the average can jump more than it likely should and pull a state into another category in the process. That was the case with New Mexico yesterday/today. With a ten point spread between those last two polls (+17 to +7), there was going to be a drop in the average. And that drop brought the average to a point just below that strong/lean threshold (+6.98 for Obama).
| The Electoral College Spectrum* | ||||
| HI-4 (7)** | ME-4 (157) | NM-5 (264/279) | MT-3 (160) | AK-3 (61) |
| VT-3 (10) | OR-7 (164) | CO-9*** (273/274) | WV-5 (157) | KY-8 (58) |
| NY-31 (41) | NJ-15 (179) | VA-13 (286/265) | GA-15 (152) | TN-11 (50) |
| DE-3 (44) | WA-11 (190) | NV-5 (291/252) | AZ-10 (137) | KS-6 (39) |
| IL-21 (65) | IA-7 (197) | OH-20 (311/247) | SD-3 (127) | NE-5 (33) |
| RI-4 (69) | MN-10 (207) | FL-27 (338/227) | MS-6 (124) | AL-9 (28) |
| MD-10 (79) | WI-10 (217) | NC-15 (353/200) | AR-6 (118) | WY-3 (19) |
| MA-12 (91) | PA-21 (238) | MO-11 (364/185) | LA-9 (112) | ID-4 (16) |
| CA-55 (146) | MI-17 (255) | IN-11 (375/174) | TX-34 (103) | UT-5 (12) |
| CT-7 (153) | NH-4 (259) | ND-3 (163) | SC-8 (69) | OK-7 (7) |
| *Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. **The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, McCain won all the states up to and including Colorado (all Obama's toss up states plus Colorado), he would have 274 electoral votes. Both candidates numbers are only totaled through their rival's toss up states. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and McCain's is on the right in italics. ***Colorado is the state where Obama crosses (or McCain would cross) the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. It is currently favoring Obama, thus the blue text in that cell. | ||||
With all that said, New Mexico once again jumps to the top of the middle column on the Electoral College Spectrum, just above Colorado. Arkansas also moves up a couple of spots on the strength of that ARG poll (which may be the final word out of the Natural state). Other than that, though, the map and the Spectrum remain decidedly unaltered. Yes, our measure stresses a certain level of consistency, but at the same time, that steadiness has held pat in many cases for quite a while (Pardon the borderline redundance). That more than anything tells us something about the current state of the race with just 48 hours to go. Obama is not only in the lead, he has a lead that will going to be tough to overcome.
| The Watch List* | |||
| State | Switch | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona | from Strong McCain | to McCain lean | |
| Florida | from Toss Up Obama | to Toss Up McCain | |
| Georgia | from Strong McCain | to McCain lean | |
| Michigan | from Strong Obama | to Obama lean | |
| Missouri | from Toss Up McCain | to Toss Up Obama | |
| Nevada | from Toss Up Obama | to Obama lean | |
| New Hampshire | from Strong Obama | to Obama lean | |
| New Mexico | from Obama lean | to Strong Obama | |
| North Carolina | from Toss Up McCain | to Toss Up Obama | |
| Ohio | from Toss Up Obama | to Obama lean | |
| Virginia | from Obama lean | to Toss Up Obama | |
| West Virginia | from McCain lean | to Strong McCain | |
| *Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories. | |||
As I said yesterday, even if the most likely changes were to occur -- those in the Watch List -- it would net McCain just one additional electoral vote. Even if only the most advantageous changes occur (Florida turns pink and Missouri and North Carolina stay McCain toss ups), that only knocks Obama's tally down to 311 electoral votes. And that, my friends, is still north of 270.
Two days left.
------------------------------------------------------
Postscript: I should make a note on Virginia. The last three polls (Friday's Rasmussen poll, Saturday's Mason-Dixon poll and today's Survey USA poll) all show the race in the Old Dominion narrowing. Virginia had been immune to the typical contraction that we see overall down the stretch, but may have entered into that phase now. While you may start seeing some other electoral college analysis sites start to come back, you likely won't see that here. All three polls are at or around the state's +3.33 average margin for Obama. In other words, Virginia is not that likely dip below that 3 point lean/toss up threshold between now and Tuesday.
Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (11/1/08)
Happy Halloween from FHQ
The Electoral College Map (10/31/08)
Saturday, November 1, 2008
The Electoral College Map (11/1/08)
It must be crunch time because an atypically heavy day of polling on Friday gave us some last minute ideas about where this race for the White House is headed. There continues to be some tightening in some of the McCain states. The most troubling Obama margin closer continues to be John McCain's home state of Arizona. In the Grand Canyon state some of the margins continue to come in under the margin of error, meaning that if the shift of the +/- MOE was toward Obama, then the race would be a virtual tie. And that really isn't the final weekend news the Arizona senator would have envisioned for himself.
But Arizona wasn't all there was to the red state tightening. Montana and North Dakota along with Georgia -- all states the Obama campaign had targeted earlier in the year with their initial general election ad buy -- are all closing toward a dead heat at just the right time for Obama (or the worst time if you're McCain). Montana and North Dakota were already designated as McCain lean states, but both Arizona and Georgia are closing in on that distinction as well. Given where we've set the category thresholds in the post-debate, closing argument portion of the race, that seems like a pretty large margin to overcome. However, if Tuesday turns into a bandwagon effect election Obama may be able to push into those states -- the leans plus Arizona and Georgia. But that is likely the ceiling of what Obama can achieve on November 4. [I'll open it up the comments section for folks to weigh in on what they suspect is the Obama floor for Tuesday. Is it over 270 electoral votes now, or is that too extreme?]
But as was the case with Thursday's poll releases, Friday was full of blue states moving even further into Obama territory with nary a hint of movement toward McCain. Again, not good news for the McCain campaign. Even in upset scenarios, you'd like to the have at least something meaningful trending your way during the last 96 hours or so of the campaign. There is absolutely no consistent let up in the support level for Obama in what is now the most crucial state to John McCain's chances, Pennsylvania.
[Click Map to Enlarge]
Even with Pennsylvania, McCain is up against the wall with the way the data shakes out after Friday. Both Michigan and New Mexico shift into the strong Obama category bringing the Illinois senator's total of electoral votes in just that category to 264 -- six shy of a victory. And that's not even counting any of the lean states or toss up states where Obama is ahead. If McCain were to win Pennsylvania but lose those Obama leans -- Colorado and Virginia -- that would put Obama just five electoral votes short of the goal. And oddly enough, as Scott points out, Nevada represents that exact number of electoral votes. With the high number of early voters in the Silver state trending Democratic, the door is quickly slamming on McCain before election day rolls around.
As it stands now, Obama is in a very comfortable position in this race. His lead in our projections still stands at 338-200, and the fact that the dark blue color of the Obama strong states has now stretched to the middle column of the Electoral College Spectrum is indicative of the just how far McCain will have to come to win this. It would be a "from out of of nowhere moment" to be sure; one far outpacing either McCain's comeback from the depths of summer 2007 to claim the GOP nomination or the New Hampshire performance in 2000.
That's what it is going to take for McCain to win it seems. There just isn't that much time and there just aren't enough crucial states trending in his direction for a McCain victory to seem feasible. Even if all the most likely moves occurred -- those on the Watch List above -- it would be a wash. McCain would win Florida back but lose Missouri and North Carolina in the process. [Yes, North Carolina is now not only on the Watch List for a potential switch into the blue, but it is also the closest of the McCain states at this point, passing Missouri for that honor.] That's a net gain of one electoral vote for McCain. And that's just not going to do it.
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The Electoral College Map (10/31/08)
A November Surprise Scenario
But Arizona wasn't all there was to the red state tightening. Montana and North Dakota along with Georgia -- all states the Obama campaign had targeted earlier in the year with their initial general election ad buy -- are all closing toward a dead heat at just the right time for Obama (or the worst time if you're McCain). Montana and North Dakota were already designated as McCain lean states, but both Arizona and Georgia are closing in on that distinction as well. Given where we've set the category thresholds in the post-debate, closing argument portion of the race, that seems like a pretty large margin to overcome. However, if Tuesday turns into a bandwagon effect election Obama may be able to push into those states -- the leans plus Arizona and Georgia. But that is likely the ceiling of what Obama can achieve on November 4. [I'll open it up the comments section for folks to weigh in on what they suspect is the Obama floor for Tuesday. Is it over 270 electoral votes now, or is that too extreme?]
| Changes (Oct. 31) | |||
| State | Before | After | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Michigan | Obama lean | Strong Obama | |
| New Mexico | Obama lean | Strong Obama | |
But as was the case with Thursday's poll releases, Friday was full of blue states moving even further into Obama territory with nary a hint of movement toward McCain. Again, not good news for the McCain campaign. Even in upset scenarios, you'd like to the have at least something meaningful trending your way during the last 96 hours or so of the campaign. There is absolutely no consistent let up in the support level for Obama in what is now the most crucial state to John McCain's chances, Pennsylvania.
[Click Map to Enlarge]Even with Pennsylvania, McCain is up against the wall with the way the data shakes out after Friday. Both Michigan and New Mexico shift into the strong Obama category bringing the Illinois senator's total of electoral votes in just that category to 264 -- six shy of a victory. And that's not even counting any of the lean states or toss up states where Obama is ahead. If McCain were to win Pennsylvania but lose those Obama leans -- Colorado and Virginia -- that would put Obama just five electoral votes short of the goal. And oddly enough, as Scott points out, Nevada represents that exact number of electoral votes. With the high number of early voters in the Silver state trending Democratic, the door is quickly slamming on McCain before election day rolls around.
| The Electoral College Spectrum* | ||||
| HI-4 (7)** | ME-4 (157) | NH-4 (264/278) | MT-3 (160) | AK-3 (61) |
| VT-3 (10) | OR-7 (164) | CO-9*** (273/274) | WV-5 (157) | KY-8 (58) |
| NY-31 (41) | WA-11 (175) | VA-13 (286/265) | GA-15 (152) | TN-11 (50) |
| DE-3 (44) | NJ-15 (190) | NV-5 (291/252) | AZ-10 (137) | KS-6 (39) |
| IL-21 (65) | IA-7 (197) | OH-20 (311/247) | SD-3 (127) | NE-5 (33) |
| RI-4 (69) | MN-10 (207) | FL-27 (338/227) | MS-6 (124) | AL-9 (28) |
| MD-10 (79) | WI-10 (217) | NC-15 (353/200) | LA-9 (118) | WY-3 (19) |
| MA-12 (91) | PA-21 (238) | MO-11 (364/185) | TX-34 (109) | ID-4 (16) |
| CA-55 (146) | NM-5 (243) | IN-11 (375/174) | AR-6 (75) | UT-5 (12) |
| CT-7 (153) | MI-17 (260) | ND-3 (163) | SC-8 (69) | OK-7 (7) |
| *Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. **The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, McCain won all the states up to and including Colorado (all Obama's toss up states plus Colorado), he would have 274 electoral votes. Both candidates numbers are only totaled through their rival's toss up states. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and McCain's is on the right in italics. ***Colorado is the state where Obama crosses (or McCain would cross) the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. It is currently favoring Obama, thus the blue text in that cell. | ||||
As it stands now, Obama is in a very comfortable position in this race. His lead in our projections still stands at 338-200, and the fact that the dark blue color of the Obama strong states has now stretched to the middle column of the Electoral College Spectrum is indicative of the just how far McCain will have to come to win this. It would be a "from out of of nowhere moment" to be sure; one far outpacing either McCain's comeback from the depths of summer 2007 to claim the GOP nomination or the New Hampshire performance in 2000.
| The Watch List* | |||
| State | Switch | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona | from Strong McCain | to McCain lean | |
| Florida | from Toss Up Obama | to Toss Up McCain | |
| Georgia | from Strong McCain | to McCain lean | |
| Michigan | from Strong Obama | to Obama lean | |
| Missouri | from Toss Up McCain | to Toss Up Obama | |
| Nevada | from Toss Up Obama | to Obama lean | |
| New Hampshire | from Strong Obama | to Obama lean | |
| New Mexico | from Strong Obama | to Obama lean | |
| North Carolina | from Toss Up McCain | to Toss Up Obama | |
| Ohio | from Toss Up Obama | to Obama lean | |
| Virginia | from Obama lean | to Toss Up Obama | |
| West Virginia | from McCain lean | to Strong McCain | |
| *Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories. | |||
That's what it is going to take for McCain to win it seems. There just isn't that much time and there just aren't enough crucial states trending in his direction for a McCain victory to seem feasible. Even if all the most likely moves occurred -- those on the Watch List above -- it would be a wash. McCain would win Florida back but lose Missouri and North Carolina in the process. [Yes, North Carolina is now not only on the Watch List for a potential switch into the blue, but it is also the closest of the McCain states at this point, passing Missouri for that honor.] That's a net gain of one electoral vote for McCain. And that's just not going to do it.
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