[Click Map to Enlarge]Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (10/31/08)
A November Surprise Scenario
National and State-Level Factors in US Presidential Election Outcomes: An Electoral College Forecast Model
Showing posts with label electoral college projections. Show all posts
Showing posts with label electoral college projections. Show all posts
Friday, October 31, 2008
Happy Halloween from FHQ
Celebrating the only way we know how...
[Click Map to Enlarge]
Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (10/31/08)
A November Surprise Scenario
National and State-Level Factors in US Presidential Election Outcomes: An Electoral College Forecast Model
[Click Map to Enlarge]Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (10/31/08)
A November Surprise Scenario
National and State-Level Factors in US Presidential Election Outcomes: An Electoral College Forecast Model
The Electoral College Map (10/31/08)
Happy Halloween! We've made it almost all the way through October with no surprises. That either means that the door has been opened up to a November surprise or that Joe the Plumber was the October surprise. For those looking for a last minute costume idea, just do what I'm doing tonight: break out your plunger and go as Joe. [Yeah, my kids need one more campaign reference in their lives right now. Poor kids. My daughter actually asked me if Obama and McCain were coming to her birthday party. No, but Joe the Plumber might!]
There were a ton of new polls out on Thursday; 39 in 25 states to be exact. The story, though, continues to be that there just isn't any perceptible tightening in the race for the White House. Sure, you can cherry pick results, but the overall picture shows the race continuing to trend toward Obama as opposed to being closer to a draw -- in most of the blue states at least. The polls out of Pennsylvania and Virginia were closer than they have been but are still outside of the margin of error for Obama.
But in the red states, the story is different. No, not across the board, but there is some narrowing in many of the states outside of the far right column of the Electoral College Spectrum below. [Well, Obama keeping it under a 30 point margin in states like Idaho or Utah would resemble a narrowing effect, though it doesn't probably meet the criteria Jim Campbell had in mind when he described the phenomenon in the American Campaign.] It doesn't mean that states like Arizona, Louisiana or South Carolina are going to turn blue on Tuesday, rather it means they'll be much more "competitive" than they were just four years ago.
[Click Map to Enlarge]
Despite continued movement toward Obama on the state level, there wasn't really all that much to show for it. New Hampshire did slip into the strong Obama category, joining Pennsylvania as a former FHQ toss up turned strong Obama state. What is amazing is that some of the closest states from 2004 -- Iowa, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and now New Hampshire -- are solidly favoring the Democrats now. All, with the exception of Iowa, were Kerry states four years ago and are indicative of the favorable climate the Democrats have enjoyed in 2008. [And New Mexico, it should be noted, is on the Watch List for a potential shift into the strong Obama area.]
New Hampshire's move doesn't change the electoral vote distribution (only Florida and Missouri will be able to do that between now and Tuesday, it appears) between the two candidates, but it does alter the Electoral College Spectrum from the way it has been (in that middle column) for weeks. We have seen some red states shuffle in and out of the bottom of that middle column but New Hampshire and Colorado have been the mainstays at the top. Not anymore. The Granite state switches positions with New Mexico, giving the area above the partisan line a distictly western flavor to it. And given the early voting in both Colorado and New Mexico, those two are virtually shut down for McCain. Obama has gotten solid turnout in early voting there and that coupled with the high overall early turnout is ominous news for the McCain campaign (as Scott has shown us).
As we head into the final weekend, then, the indications are that Obama is in a comfortable position with no readily available signs of that trend abating. As I said earlier, the thing now is to keep an eye on those toss up states and especially Florida and Missouri. Those two are the states most likely to change here at FHQ between now and Tuesday and shift electoral votes in the process. But keep in mind that these states are toss ups for a reason: they are close.
...and susceptible to a last minute November surprise? Maybe, maybe not.
One question for everyone to discuss in the comments (and it is something I brought up in the comments to the November surprise post):
Recent Posts:
A November Surprise Scenario
National and State-Level Factors in US Presidential Election Outcomes: An Electoral College Forecast Model
The Electoral College Map (10/30/08)
| New Polls (Oct. 30) | |||
| State | Poll | Margin | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona | CNN | +7 | |
| Arizona | Mason-Dixon/NBC | +4 | |
| California | Field | +22 | |
| Colorado | National Journal | +4 | |
| Colorado | Marist | +6 | |
| Florida | National Journal | +1 | |
| Idaho | Harstad | +23 | |
| Indiana | Selzer | +0.6 | |
| Indiana | Rasmussen | +3 | |
| Iowa | Survey USA | +15 | |
| Kentucky | Rasmussen | +12 | |
| Louisiana | Loyola | +3 | |
| Michigan | EPIC/MRA | +14 | |
| Michigan | Strategic Vision | +13 | |
| Minnesota | Mason-Dixon/NBC | +8 | |
| Minnesota | MPR | +19 | |
| Montana | Rasmussen | +4 | |
| Nevada | CNN | +7 | |
| New Hampshire | Suffolk | +13 | |
| New Hampshire | UNH | +18 | |
| New Hampshire | Strategic Vision | +9 | |
| New Jersey | Research 2000 | +16 | |
| North Carolina | National Journal | +4 | |
| North Carolina | CNN | +6 | |
| North Carolina | Rasmussen | +2 | |
| Ohio | National Journal | +7 | |
| Ohio | CNN | +4 | |
| Oklahoma | Survey USA | +29 | |
| Pennsylvania | CNN | +12 | |
| Pennsylvania | Mason-Dixon/NBC | +4 | |
| Pennsylvania | Strategic Vision | +5 | |
| South Carolina | NBC | +11 | |
| South Carolina | Survey USA | +8 | |
| Texas | University of Texas | +11 | |
| Utah | Mason-Dixon | +23 | |
| Virginia | National Journal | +4 | |
| Virginia | Marist | +4 | |
| West Virginia | Public Policy Polling | +13 | |
| Wisconsin | Survey USA | +16 | |
There were a ton of new polls out on Thursday; 39 in 25 states to be exact. The story, though, continues to be that there just isn't any perceptible tightening in the race for the White House. Sure, you can cherry pick results, but the overall picture shows the race continuing to trend toward Obama as opposed to being closer to a draw -- in most of the blue states at least. The polls out of Pennsylvania and Virginia were closer than they have been but are still outside of the margin of error for Obama.
| Changes (Oct. 30) | |||
| State | Before | After | |
|---|---|---|---|
| New Hampshire | Obama lean | Strong Obama | |
But in the red states, the story is different. No, not across the board, but there is some narrowing in many of the states outside of the far right column of the Electoral College Spectrum below. [Well, Obama keeping it under a 30 point margin in states like Idaho or Utah would resemble a narrowing effect, though it doesn't probably meet the criteria Jim Campbell had in mind when he described the phenomenon in the American Campaign.] It doesn't mean that states like Arizona, Louisiana or South Carolina are going to turn blue on Tuesday, rather it means they'll be much more "competitive" than they were just four years ago.
[Click Map to Enlarge]Despite continued movement toward Obama on the state level, there wasn't really all that much to show for it. New Hampshire did slip into the strong Obama category, joining Pennsylvania as a former FHQ toss up turned strong Obama state. What is amazing is that some of the closest states from 2004 -- Iowa, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and now New Hampshire -- are solidly favoring the Democrats now. All, with the exception of Iowa, were Kerry states four years ago and are indicative of the favorable climate the Democrats have enjoyed in 2008. [And New Mexico, it should be noted, is on the Watch List for a potential shift into the strong Obama area.]
| The Electoral College Spectrum* | ||||
| HI-4 (7)** | ME-4 (157) | NM-5 (264/279) | MT-3 (160) | AK-3 (61) |
| VT-3 (10) | WA-11 (168) | CO-9*** (273/274) | WV-5 (157) | KY-8 (58) |
| NY-31 (41) | OR-7 (175) | VA-13 (286/265) | GA-15 (152) | TN-11 (50) |
| DE-3 (44) | NJ-15 (190) | NV-5 (291/252) | AZ-10 (137) | KS-6 (39) |
| IL-21 (65) | IA-7 (197) | OH-20 (311/247) | SD-3 (127) | NE-5 (33) |
| RI-4 (69) | MN-10 (207) | FL-27 (338/227) | MS-6 (124) | AL-9 (28) |
| MD-10 (79) | WI-10 (217) | MO-11 (349/200) | LA-9 (118) | WY-3 (19) |
| MA-12 (91) | PA-21 (238) | NC-15 (364/189) | TX-34 (109) | ID-4 (16) |
| CA-55 (146) | NH-4 (242) | IN-11 (375/174) | AR-6 (75) | UT-5 (12) |
| CT-7 (153) | MI-17 (259) | ND-3 (163) | SC-8 (69) | OK-7 (7) |
| *Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. **The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, McCain won all the states up to and including Colorado (all Obama's toss up states plus Colorado), he would have 274 electoral votes. Both candidates numbers are only totaled through their rival's toss up states. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and McCain's is on the right in italics. ***Colorado is the state where Obama crosses (or McCain would cross) the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. It is currently favoring Obama, thus the blue text in that cell. | ||||
New Hampshire's move doesn't change the electoral vote distribution (only Florida and Missouri will be able to do that between now and Tuesday, it appears) between the two candidates, but it does alter the Electoral College Spectrum from the way it has been (in that middle column) for weeks. We have seen some red states shuffle in and out of the bottom of that middle column but New Hampshire and Colorado have been the mainstays at the top. Not anymore. The Granite state switches positions with New Mexico, giving the area above the partisan line a distictly western flavor to it. And given the early voting in both Colorado and New Mexico, those two are virtually shut down for McCain. Obama has gotten solid turnout in early voting there and that coupled with the high overall early turnout is ominous news for the McCain campaign (as Scott has shown us).
| The Watch List* | |||
| State | Switch | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Florida | from Toss Up Obama | to Toss Up McCain | |
| Georgia | from Strong McCain | to McCain lean | |
| Michigan | from Obama lean | to Strong Obama | |
| Missouri | from Toss Up McCain | to Toss Up Obama | |
| Nevada | from Toss Up Obama | to Obama lean | |
| New Hampshire | from Strong Obama | to Obama lean | |
| New Mexico | from Obama lean | to Strong Obama | |
| Ohio | from Toss Up Obama | to Obama lean | |
| Virginia | from Obama lean | to Toss Up Obama | |
| West Virginia | from McCain lean | to Strong McCain | |
| *Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories. | |||
As we head into the final weekend, then, the indications are that Obama is in a comfortable position with no readily available signs of that trend abating. As I said earlier, the thing now is to keep an eye on those toss up states and especially Florida and Missouri. Those two are the states most likely to change here at FHQ between now and Tuesday and shift electoral votes in the process. But keep in mind that these states are toss ups for a reason: they are close.
...and susceptible to a last minute November surprise? Maybe, maybe not.
One question for everyone to discuss in the comments (and it is something I brought up in the comments to the November surprise post):
What effect does that have on election day turnout?Thoughts?
1) It depresses turnout.
2) a) People say, "Hey, the lines will be short(er), why not go vote!"
or
b) "Wow! I want to be a part of this!"
Recent Posts:
A November Surprise Scenario
National and State-Level Factors in US Presidential Election Outcomes: An Electoral College Forecast Model
The Electoral College Map (10/30/08)
Wednesday, October 29, 2008
The Electoral College Map (10/30/08)
NOTE: In the interest of time over these next few days, I'm more inclined to give the daily map updates short shrift unless an definitive change in the dynamic of the race occurs. I am loath to go the "short post" route but I've got some really good stuff I'd like to get out ahead of election day. And no, I don't say that with any sort of arrogance. I've actually got some outside contributions that will add substantially to our home-stretch analysis here at FHQ.
-------------------------------------------------------
Another day, another 31 polls at which to look. Over the last few days, we have led off by talking about the polls in red. Well, if McCain is going to get back in this thing -- at least by our measure -- there are going to have to be some favorable polls for the Arizona senator. Sure, we can talk about Obama's continued lead in the polls throughout most of the toss up states, but that isn't as interesting as trying to strategically devise the ways in which the McCain campaign could make a race of it between now and Tuesday. And that starts with polling at least heading in his direction. On Wednesday, however, there wasn't any real indication that that sort of trend was emerging. There has been some tightening on the national level, but in the states that appear to be the decisive ones in 2008, there is little or no evidence that the national trend has extended or will extend to the state level.
And that is a problem for the McCain campaign. The only poll the Arizona senator can hang his hat on following Wednesday's poll release, is that CNN poll that has him up 2 points in Missouri. And even that is a stretch since the Show-Me state has been hovering in the +/-2 point range for a week or more anyway. That is pretty much the message to take home from this collection of surveys. It is a par for the course day.
[Click Map to Enlarge]
If we focus on the states with two or more polls on Wednesday, then we see a number of states -- Colorado, Florida, Pennsylvania and Virginia -- where Obama's margins are strikingly consistent across polling firms. [It should be noted that the polls above for Florida make it look as though the Sunshine state is narrowing to some extent. That may be, but that may also be a function of the point at which polls were released. If the polls are arranged chronologically, the polls that were in the field most recently show Obama ahead by a four to seven point range.] But there are still other states where the picture isn't as clear. Obama is ahead, but the degree to which he leads hasn't solidified as it has in the former group. We see for example that while Obama is ahead in all five polls in both Nevada and Ohio, there is a difference of opinion as to how much he is actually ahead. Between the two polls in Nevada there is a seven point margin and in Ohio that distance is six points. Again, Obama is ahead, but these are states that may be difficult to read as we head into next Tuesday.
There are some subtle changes to the Electoral College Spectrum -- there usually are -- but there's nothing groundbreaking in there. [Fine, Delaware shot up the far left column after that 30 point Survey USA margin.] And the map remains the same as it was a day ago. Obama still leads in the hypothetical electoral vote tally by a count of 338-200 and is safe in states totalling 286 electoral votes (strong and lean Obama states).
Shifting to the Watch List, Colorado departs, having moved into a firmer position within the Obama lean category. However, Nevada and New Hampshire have been added to the list. On the strength of several double digit polls recently, New Hampshire is within a point of moving into the strong Obama category. As changes go, that one is a pretty quick shift by FHQ standards. Nevada, too, is new to the list. However, the Silver state is not back on to potentially switch back to the McCain side of the partisan line. Instead, Nevada has moved within a fraction of a point in our averages of moving into the Obama lean category. It should be noted that Ohio is within striking distance of joining Nevada in that distinction as well. So, while it may be difficult to ascertain the extent to which Obama is ahead in each of those states, both are actually inching further and further into Obama territory.
And as always, keep your eyes peeled for new polling from Florida and Missouri. Those are the two states where the potential shift called for in the Watch List would shift electoral votes in the process.
Recent Posts:
Liveblog: The Obama Infomercial
Update(s): The Electoral College from a Different Angle
The Electoral College Map (10/29/08)
- As I mentioned in yesterday's update and again in the comments to last night's live blog of the Obama infomercial, I've got a post ready on the potential impact of a November surprise. Scott's done the legwork on that and there are some pretty interesting findings there.
- Also, after bugging them all semester, Paul Gurian and Damon Cann have graciously given me the exclusive rights to bringing their presidential forecasting model to the blogosphere. Well, that makes it sound as if they were unwilling to share that with me. They weren't. Both have been on board with the concept for a while now; they've just been tweaking things in the model.
-------------------------------------------------------
Another day, another 31 polls at which to look. Over the last few days, we have led off by talking about the polls in red. Well, if McCain is going to get back in this thing -- at least by our measure -- there are going to have to be some favorable polls for the Arizona senator. Sure, we can talk about Obama's continued lead in the polls throughout most of the toss up states, but that isn't as interesting as trying to strategically devise the ways in which the McCain campaign could make a race of it between now and Tuesday. And that starts with polling at least heading in his direction. On Wednesday, however, there wasn't any real indication that that sort of trend was emerging. There has been some tightening on the national level, but in the states that appear to be the decisive ones in 2008, there is little or no evidence that the national trend has extended or will extend to the state level.
| New Polls (Oct. 29) | |||
| State | Poll | Margin | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama | Survey USA | +24 | |
| Alaska | Rasmussen | +16 | |
| Colorado | CNN | +8 | |
| Colorado | AP | +9 | |
| Delaware | Survey USA | +30 | |
| Florida | Quinnipiac | +2 | |
| Florida | CNN | +4 | |
| Florida | AP | +2 | |
| Georgia | CNN | +5 | |
| Indiana | Research 2000 | 0 | |
| Kansas | Survey USA | +21 | |
| Massachusetts | Survey USA | +17 | |
| Michigan | Rasmussen | +10 | |
| Minnesota | Rasmussen | +12 | |
| Missouri | CNN | +2 | |
| Nevada | AP | +12 | |
| Nevada | Research 2000 | +5 | |
| New Hampshire | AP | +18 | |
| New Mexico | Rasmussen | +10 | |
| New York | Survey USA | +29 | |
| North Carolina | AP | +2 | |
| Ohio | Quinnipiac | +9 | |
| Ohio | CNN | +7 | |
| Ohio | Marist | +3 | |
| Pennsylvania | Quinnipiac | +12 | |
| Pennsylvania | AP | +12 | |
| Pennsylvania | Franklin & Marshall | +13 | |
| Pennsylvania | Marist | +14 | |
| Virginia | AP | +7 | |
| Virginia | CNN | +9 | |
| Wisconsin | Research 2000 | +11 | |
And that is a problem for the McCain campaign. The only poll the Arizona senator can hang his hat on following Wednesday's poll release, is that CNN poll that has him up 2 points in Missouri. And even that is a stretch since the Show-Me state has been hovering in the +/-2 point range for a week or more anyway. That is pretty much the message to take home from this collection of surveys. It is a par for the course day.
[Click Map to Enlarge]If we focus on the states with two or more polls on Wednesday, then we see a number of states -- Colorado, Florida, Pennsylvania and Virginia -- where Obama's margins are strikingly consistent across polling firms. [It should be noted that the polls above for Florida make it look as though the Sunshine state is narrowing to some extent. That may be, but that may also be a function of the point at which polls were released. If the polls are arranged chronologically, the polls that were in the field most recently show Obama ahead by a four to seven point range.] But there are still other states where the picture isn't as clear. Obama is ahead, but the degree to which he leads hasn't solidified as it has in the former group. We see for example that while Obama is ahead in all five polls in both Nevada and Ohio, there is a difference of opinion as to how much he is actually ahead. Between the two polls in Nevada there is a seven point margin and in Ohio that distance is six points. Again, Obama is ahead, but these are states that may be difficult to read as we head into next Tuesday.
| The Electoral College Spectrum* | ||||
| HI-4 (7)** | ME-4 (157) | NH-4 (264/278) | MT-3 (160) | LA-9 (67) |
| VT-3 (10) | WA-11 (168) | CO-9*** (273/274) | WV-5 (157) | KY-8 (58) |
| NY-31 (41) | OR-7 (175) | VA-13 (286/265) | GA-15 (152) | TN-11 (50) |
| DE-3 (44) | NJ-15 (190) | NV-5 (291/252) | AZ-10 (137) | KS-6 (39) |
| IL-21 (65) | IA-7 (197) | OH-20 (311/247) | SD-3 (127) | NE-5 (33) |
| RI-4 (69) | MN-10 (207) | FL-27 (338/227) | MS-6 (124) | AL-9 (28) |
| MD-10 (79) | PA-21 (228) | MO-11 (349/200) | TX-34 (118) | WY-3 (19) |
| MA-12 (91) | WI-10 (238) | NC-15 (364/189) | AR-6 (84) | ID-4 (16) |
| CA-55 (146) | NM-5 (243) | IN-11 (375/174) | AK-3 (78) | OK-7 (12) |
| CT-7 (153) | MI-17 (260) | ND-3 (163) | SC-8 (75) | UT-5 (5) |
| *Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. **The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, McCain won all the states up to and including Colorado (all Obama's toss up states plus Colorado), he would have 274 electoral votes. Both candidates numbers are only totaled through their rival's toss up states. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and McCain's is on the right in italics. ***Colorado is the state where Obama crosses (or McCain would cross) the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. It is currently favoring Obama, thus the blue text in that cell. | ||||
There are some subtle changes to the Electoral College Spectrum -- there usually are -- but there's nothing groundbreaking in there. [Fine, Delaware shot up the far left column after that 30 point Survey USA margin.] And the map remains the same as it was a day ago. Obama still leads in the hypothetical electoral vote tally by a count of 338-200 and is safe in states totalling 286 electoral votes (strong and lean Obama states).
| The Watch List* | |||
| State | Switch | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Florida | from Toss Up Obama | to Toss Up McCain | |
| Georgia | from Strong McCain | to McCain lean | |
| Michigan | from Obama lean | to Strong Obama | |
| Missouri | from Toss Up McCain | to Toss Up Obama | |
| Nevada | from Toss Up Obama | to Obama lean | |
| New Hampshire | from Obama lean | to Strong Obama | |
| New Mexico | from Obama lean | to Strong Obama | |
| Virginia | from Obama lean | to Toss Up Obama | |
| *Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories. | |||
Shifting to the Watch List, Colorado departs, having moved into a firmer position within the Obama lean category. However, Nevada and New Hampshire have been added to the list. On the strength of several double digit polls recently, New Hampshire is within a point of moving into the strong Obama category. As changes go, that one is a pretty quick shift by FHQ standards. Nevada, too, is new to the list. However, the Silver state is not back on to potentially switch back to the McCain side of the partisan line. Instead, Nevada has moved within a fraction of a point in our averages of moving into the Obama lean category. It should be noted that Ohio is within striking distance of joining Nevada in that distinction as well. So, while it may be difficult to ascertain the extent to which Obama is ahead in each of those states, both are actually inching further and further into Obama territory.
And as always, keep your eyes peeled for new polling from Florida and Missouri. Those are the two states where the potential shift called for in the Watch List would shift electoral votes in the process.
Recent Posts:
Liveblog: The Obama Infomercial
Update(s): The Electoral College from a Different Angle
The Electoral College Map (10/29/08)
Update(s): The Electoral College from a Different Angle
It's time for another update of the Electoral College via the 50% Rule from Scott. I've been swamped this last week plus, but he has updated his examination of the electoral college a couple of times over the past week or so, and I thought I'd put a map (or two) up so we can "see" the shifts. For those who missed the first two versions, you can find the first here and the update here. Here's the premise (...from the original post):
There are two basic questions being asked:
1) Is one of the candidates above the 50% mark in a state currently?
2) Has one of the candidates been the only one to surpass 50% in any reputable state poll?
If the answer is yes to both, then that implies there has been some consistency to the candidate being or having been over 50% in those averages. Those are the states that are designated solid states for either McCain or Obama.
If the answer to the second question is yes but the answer to the first question is no, that state is a lean state. In other words, there is some potential there for one of the candidates to cross that threshold. It has happened before. However, that support has either waned and is dormant or is latent in the current period.
If the answers to both questions are no, then that state is a toss up according to this metric. In this scenario, neither candidate has demonstrated the level of support in the polls to translate to an outright win in the state. As Scott put it:
"There are two different ways a state can end up a toss-up. One is to have neither candidate reach 50 in any poll since McCain became the presumptive nominee. The other is to have both candidates do it, but to have neither break 50 in the pollster.com average."
And how does this change things on the map?
Says Scott:
[Click Map to Enlarge]
What we are seeing here is the continued surge Obama has enjoyed since the economic downturn at the end of September. The Illinois senator's position has been strengthened and in the process the lean category has contracted rather substantially. We can expect to see that to some degree just based on the fact that over time more and more undecideds are filing in behind one or the other of the two candidates. They aren't deciding and then changing their minds, for instance. What that is coupled with here, though, is the fact that Obama has surpassed 50% in a host of states over the two weeks examined here and the McCain has dropped below that point in a couple of his solid states.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
But let's bring that up to the present -- as defined as a couple of days ago* -- and see whether the Obama gains have continued.
The short answer is sort of. Both New Hampshire and Ohio have moved over into the solid Obama category as polling in each has shown the Illinois senator surpassing 50% and staying above that point. Meanwhile, West Virginia reversed course, moving from a toss up to a solid McCain state. All the other shifts are intuitive enough except for Rhode Island. To which Scott responds:
[Click Map to Enlarge]
What's interesting here is that some of the states -- Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, for example -- where the margins have decreased moderately for Obama are still solid because of the Illinois senator's position relative to the 50% threshold in the polls. Obama is still above that point consistently enough there that those states are still among the most safe for him.
*I should note that Scott will have another of these ready for what the two of us have been calling election eve. He does include one addendum to that though:
Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (10/29/08)
The Debate Last Night
The Electoral College Map (10/28/08)
There are two basic questions being asked:
1) Is one of the candidates above the 50% mark in a state currently?
2) Has one of the candidates been the only one to surpass 50% in any reputable state poll?
If the answer is yes to both, then that implies there has been some consistency to the candidate being or having been over 50% in those averages. Those are the states that are designated solid states for either McCain or Obama.
If the answer to the second question is yes but the answer to the first question is no, that state is a lean state. In other words, there is some potential there for one of the candidates to cross that threshold. It has happened before. However, that support has either waned and is dormant or is latent in the current period.
If the answers to both questions are no, then that state is a toss up according to this metric. In this scenario, neither candidate has demonstrated the level of support in the polls to translate to an outright win in the state. As Scott put it:
"The idea is that if a state consistently polls 50-47, regardless of the methodology of the poll or the state of the national race, it's very hard for the trailing candidate to win. But if a state has a lot of polls like 46-40, but the leading candidate never breaks 50, the trailing candidate has a chance."He added:
"There are two different ways a state can end up a toss-up. One is to have neither candidate reach 50 in any poll since McCain became the presumptive nominee. The other is to have both candidates do it, but to have neither break 50 in the pollster.com average."
And how does this change things on the map?
| Changes (Oct. 6-21) | |||
| State | Before | After | |
|---|---|---|---|
| New Mexico | Toss Up | Strong Obama | |
| Virginia | Toss Up | Strong Obama | |
| Colorado | Obama lean | Strong Obama | |
| Michigan | Obama lean | Strong Obama | |
| Minnesota | Obama lean | Strong Obama | |
| Pennsylvania | Obama lean | Strong Obama | |
| Wisconsin | Obama lean | Strong Obama | |
| Missouri | McCain lean | Toss Up | |
| West Virginia | McCain lean | Toss Up | |
| Montana | Strong McCain | McCain lean | |
| North Dakota | Strong McCain | McCain lean | |
Says Scott:
"While every change favored Obama, it's worth noting that Florida briefly turned solid Obama between updates, before going back to toss-up status.
"I'll also note that under this methodology, the current toss-up's can't go to lean no matter what, because both candidates have had polls showing them breaking 50. They are "battlegrounds"--they can shift to one candidate's camp, but they no longer have the luxury of "leaning," as the race in these states is not due to people who have not yet decided, but rather to people changing their minds."
[Click Map to Enlarge]What we are seeing here is the continued surge Obama has enjoyed since the economic downturn at the end of September. The Illinois senator's position has been strengthened and in the process the lean category has contracted rather substantially. We can expect to see that to some degree just based on the fact that over time more and more undecideds are filing in behind one or the other of the two candidates. They aren't deciding and then changing their minds, for instance. What that is coupled with here, though, is the fact that Obama has surpassed 50% in a host of states over the two weeks examined here and the McCain has dropped below that point in a couple of his solid states.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
But let's bring that up to the present -- as defined as a couple of days ago* -- and see whether the Obama gains have continued.
| Changes (Oct. 21-27) | |||
| State | Before | After | |
|---|---|---|---|
| New Hampshire | Toss Up | Strong Obama | |
| Ohio | Toss Up | Strong Obama | |
| Rhode Island | Strong Obama | Obama lean | |
| Indiana | McCain lean | Toss Up | |
| Arizona | Strong McCain | McCain lean | |
| South Dakota | Strong McCain | McCain lean | |
| West Virginia | Toss Up | Strong McCain | |
The short answer is sort of. Both New Hampshire and Ohio have moved over into the solid Obama category as polling in each has shown the Illinois senator surpassing 50% and staying above that point. Meanwhile, West Virginia reversed course, moving from a toss up to a solid McCain state. All the other shifts are intuitive enough except for Rhode Island. To which Scott responds:
"Yes, Rhode Island is only an Obama lean. That's one place where the 50% methodology isn't very good, because the handful of recent polls are showing a bizarre number of undecideds."
[Click Map to Enlarge]What's interesting here is that some of the states -- Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, for example -- where the margins have decreased moderately for Obama are still solid because of the Illinois senator's position relative to the 50% threshold in the polls. Obama is still above that point consistently enough there that those states are still among the most safe for him.
*I should note that Scott will have another of these ready for what the two of us have been calling election eve. He does include one addendum to that though:
"Incidentally, expect significant changes on the Monday night map in this series, because I've been planning a methodology shift. For the very last update, I'm going to change to Pollster's "more sensitive" average; i.e. the one that reacts more quickly to changes. That way if there is some event that dominates the last few news cycles, it will be accounted for."
Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (10/29/08)
The Debate Last Night
The Electoral College Map (10/28/08)
Tuesday, October 28, 2008
The Electoral College Map (10/29/08)
Tuesday brought much more red to the polling on the day, but you'd be hard-pressed to call any of it "good" red. The gap continues to close in Arizona, though the state is still regarded as a strong state for John McCain. Still, as I mentioned on Monday, the symbolism of having your home grow increasingly competitive as the race draws to a close is not a welcome sign for any candidate, much less a candidate trailing in the polls both nationally and in the most competitive states. Elsewhere, a day after a Zogby poll gave the McCain campaign a somewhat comfortable advantage in Indiana, the Hoosier state turns in two polls well within the margin of error with one favoring each candidate. Indiana is still off the Watch List for a potential switch to the blue side of the partisan line, but is perilously close for a state that has been reliably Republican since LBJ's landslide in 1964. Also, there was a bit of a bounce back in the Insider Advantage polling in Georgia. And even though the new poll is red -- an improvement over the one point advantage the firm showed Obama had late last week -- that one point margin is far below what would have been expected in the Peach state as recently as two weeks ago.
And while there is more red among the 25 new polls (in 19 states) out Tuesday, there is certainly more than enough blue to counterbalance it. While the averages are creeping lower on the McCain side of the partisan line, on the Obama side, they are increasing. Well, there are some caveats, of course, but states like Colorado, Maine, New Hampshire and Washington continue to move deeper into the Obama column. Meanwhile Pennsylvania and Wisconsin jumped toward Obama in the wake of the economic crisis but have since receded some, though perhaps not as much as the McCain campaign would prefer. [Both these states came up in the comments section discussion yesterday and I'll have something to add to that a little later today.]
The case is a bit different in Nevada and Ohio, where the results are a bit more muddled. In other words, we're getting conflicting views of just how much Obama is ahead in the Silver and Buckeye states. The Illnois senator continues to hold leads in both but the depth of that lead is something of a question mark. Of the two polls out in each state on Tuesday, one had Obama ahead by 4 and the other had the Illinois senator up by 9 or 10 points. The underlying message to take home, though, is that Obama is ahead in each throughout most of the recent polling. And both states have slipped off the Watch List into a firm position in the Obama toss up category. All that means is that neither state is within a fraction of a point of returning to the McCain side of the partisan line. And both are creeping in the opposite direction at the moment.
Meanwhile, there is Virginia. The Old Dominion looks a lot more like Colorado, Maine and Washington than it does Ohio or Pennsylvania. Unlike Maine or Washington, though, Virginia started out in McCain territory and has since jumped to the Obama side of the partisan line and has sustained those numbers (...as opposed to either a bounce and recession scenario or a mixed results one). Despite that starting point -- a solid Bush state four years ago -- Virginia has now shifted enough to move into the Obama lean category. In the process that vaults Obama into an even more comfortable position ahead of the election next Tuesday. Between the strong and lean categories in the blue, Obama now has 286 electoral votes. Toss up states, then are irrelevant at this point if the goal is surpassing 270 electoral votes. If the discussion shifts to building a coalition of states to claim a mandate, then those toss up states become more consequential.
[Click Map to Enlarge]
But let's not get too far ahead of ourselves. McCain is down, but he isn't totally out. Though, there are a decreasing number of scenarios where McCain emerges victorious on November 4. For one, as FHQ showed last week, it would take an above average Bradley effect for McCain to pull out a win. Later today, we'll have a little something up about the effect an October (or at this point pretty much, a November) surprise would potentially have on the election. As things stand now, though, McCain will not only have to sweep the remaining toss up states, but he'll have to stretch into the Obama leans or even a couple of strong Obama states -- like Pennsylvania or Wisconsin -- with favorable conditions (demographics, lack of early voting, etc.). Pulling in one or both of those would negated the need for McCain to "have" to win Colorado, Virginia or New Hampshire. Regardless, the Arizona senator will have to sweep the remaining toss up states.
Finally, the Watch List loses Montana today on the strength of the Mason-Dixon poll in the Treasure state showing McCain up 4 points. Despite that, the RNC thought the race there to be close enough to drop some cash in the state to protect McCain's position there. Other than Montana, though, there wasn't any movement on the Watch List. Colorado is within a couple hundredths of a point of shifting off the list into a more comfortable position in the Obama lean category and the new poll out this morning from the AP will likely push the Centennial state across that threshold. Colorado, then, is one to watch along with the old stand-bys, Florida and Missouri. Though, it should be said that Florida is tracking toward leaving the list in the way that Nevada and Ohio have recently. Missouri, on the other hand, continues to draw closer.
NOTE: Please make a note of the Rasmussen North Carolina poll from a day ago. I mistakenly colored it an Obama one point advantage. It was a McCain lead of one point and the table now reflects that reality. The Tar Heel state is still just outside of being added to the Watch List as a potential switch into the Obama toss up category.
Recent Posts:
The Debate Last Night
The Electoral College Map (10/28/08)
Debate Tonight
| New Polls (Oct. 28) | |||
| State | Poll | Margin | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona | ASU/Cronkite | +2 | |
| Arkansas | Rasmussen | +10 | |
| Colorado | Insider Advantage | +8 | |
| Florida | LA Times/Bloomberg | +7 | |
| Georgia | Insider Advantage | +1 | |
| Indiana | Howey-Gauge | +2 | |
| Indiana | Research 2000 | +1 | |
| Louisiana | SE LA Univ. | +12.3 | |
| Maine | Market Decisions | +19.1 | |
| Mississippi | Rasmussen | +8 | |
| Mississippi | Univ. of South Alabama | +13 | |
| Montana | Mason-Dixon/NBC | +4 | |
| Nevada | Suffolk | +10 | |
| Nevada | Rasmussen | +4 | |
| New Hampshire | Mason-Dixon/NBC | +11 | |
| New Jersey | Strategic Vision | +15 | |
| North Carolina | Mason-Dixon/NBC | 0 | |
| Ohio | Survey USA | +4 | |
| Ohio | LA Times/Bloomberg | +9 | |
| Pennsylvania | Insider Advantage | +9 | |
| Pennsylvania | Rasmussen | +7 | |
| Virginia | Roanoke College | +9 | |
| Washington | Survey USA | +17 | |
| Washington | Strategic Vision | +12 | |
| Wisconsin | Strategic Vision | +9 | |
And while there is more red among the 25 new polls (in 19 states) out Tuesday, there is certainly more than enough blue to counterbalance it. While the averages are creeping lower on the McCain side of the partisan line, on the Obama side, they are increasing. Well, there are some caveats, of course, but states like Colorado, Maine, New Hampshire and Washington continue to move deeper into the Obama column. Meanwhile Pennsylvania and Wisconsin jumped toward Obama in the wake of the economic crisis but have since receded some, though perhaps not as much as the McCain campaign would prefer. [Both these states came up in the comments section discussion yesterday and I'll have something to add to that a little later today.]
The case is a bit different in Nevada and Ohio, where the results are a bit more muddled. In other words, we're getting conflicting views of just how much Obama is ahead in the Silver and Buckeye states. The Illnois senator continues to hold leads in both but the depth of that lead is something of a question mark. Of the two polls out in each state on Tuesday, one had Obama ahead by 4 and the other had the Illinois senator up by 9 or 10 points. The underlying message to take home, though, is that Obama is ahead in each throughout most of the recent polling. And both states have slipped off the Watch List into a firm position in the Obama toss up category. All that means is that neither state is within a fraction of a point of returning to the McCain side of the partisan line. And both are creeping in the opposite direction at the moment.
| Changes (Oct. 28) | |||
| State | Before | After | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Virginia | Toss Up Obama | Obama lean | |
Meanwhile, there is Virginia. The Old Dominion looks a lot more like Colorado, Maine and Washington than it does Ohio or Pennsylvania. Unlike Maine or Washington, though, Virginia started out in McCain territory and has since jumped to the Obama side of the partisan line and has sustained those numbers (...as opposed to either a bounce and recession scenario or a mixed results one). Despite that starting point -- a solid Bush state four years ago -- Virginia has now shifted enough to move into the Obama lean category. In the process that vaults Obama into an even more comfortable position ahead of the election next Tuesday. Between the strong and lean categories in the blue, Obama now has 286 electoral votes. Toss up states, then are irrelevant at this point if the goal is surpassing 270 electoral votes. If the discussion shifts to building a coalition of states to claim a mandate, then those toss up states become more consequential.
[Click Map to Enlarge]But let's not get too far ahead of ourselves. McCain is down, but he isn't totally out. Though, there are a decreasing number of scenarios where McCain emerges victorious on November 4. For one, as FHQ showed last week, it would take an above average Bradley effect for McCain to pull out a win. Later today, we'll have a little something up about the effect an October (or at this point pretty much, a November) surprise would potentially have on the election. As things stand now, though, McCain will not only have to sweep the remaining toss up states, but he'll have to stretch into the Obama leans or even a couple of strong Obama states -- like Pennsylvania or Wisconsin -- with favorable conditions (demographics, lack of early voting, etc.). Pulling in one or both of those would negated the need for McCain to "have" to win Colorado, Virginia or New Hampshire. Regardless, the Arizona senator will have to sweep the remaining toss up states.
| The Electoral College Spectrum* | ||||
| HI-4 (7)** | ME-4 (157) | NH-4 (264/278) | MT-3 (160) | LA-9 (67) |
| VT-3 (10) | WA-11 (168) | CO-9*** (273/274) | WV-5 (157) | KY-8 (58) |
| NY-31 (41) | OR-7 (175) | VA-13 (286/265) | GA-15 (152) | KS-6 (50) |
| IL-21 (62) | NJ-15 (190) | OH-20 (306/252) | AZ-10 (137) | TN-11 (44) |
| RI-4 (66) | IA-7 (197) | NV-5 (311/232) | SD-3 (127) | NE-5 (33) |
| MD-10 (76) | MN-10 (207) | FL-27 (338/227) | MS-6 (124) | AL-9 (28) |
| MA-12 (88) | PA-21 (228) | MO-11 (349/200) | TX-34 (118) | WY-3 (19) |
| CA-55 (143) | WI-10 (238) | NC-15 (364/189) | AR-6 (84) | ID-4 (16) |
| DE-3 (146) | NM-5 (243) | IN-11 (375/174) | AK-3 (78) | OK-7 (12) |
| CT-7 (153) | MI-17 (260) | ND-3 (163) | SC-8 (75) | UT-5 (5) |
| *Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. **The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, McCain won all the states up to and including Colorado (all Obama's toss up states plus Colorado), he would have 274 electoral votes. Both candidates numbers are only totaled through their rival's toss up states. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and McCain's is on the right in italics. ***Colorado is the state where Obama crosses (or McCain would cross) the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. It is currently favoring Obama, thus the blue text in that cell. | ||||
Finally, the Watch List loses Montana today on the strength of the Mason-Dixon poll in the Treasure state showing McCain up 4 points. Despite that, the RNC thought the race there to be close enough to drop some cash in the state to protect McCain's position there. Other than Montana, though, there wasn't any movement on the Watch List. Colorado is within a couple hundredths of a point of shifting off the list into a more comfortable position in the Obama lean category and the new poll out this morning from the AP will likely push the Centennial state across that threshold. Colorado, then, is one to watch along with the old stand-bys, Florida and Missouri. Though, it should be said that Florida is tracking toward leaving the list in the way that Nevada and Ohio have recently. Missouri, on the other hand, continues to draw closer.
| The Watch List* | |||
| State | Switch | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Colorado | from Obama lean | to Toss Up Obama | |
| Florida | from Toss Up Obama | to Toss Up McCain | |
| Georgia | from Strong McCain | to McCain lean | |
| Michigan | from Obama lean | to Strong Obama | |
| Missouri | from Toss Up McCain | to Toss Up Obama | |
| New Mexico | from Obama lean | to Strong Obama | |
| Virginia | from Obama lean | to Toss Up Obama | |
| *Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories. | |||
NOTE: Please make a note of the Rasmussen North Carolina poll from a day ago. I mistakenly colored it an Obama one point advantage. It was a McCain lead of one point and the table now reflects that reality. The Tar Heel state is still just outside of being added to the Watch List as a potential switch into the Obama toss up category.
Recent Posts:
The Debate Last Night
The Electoral College Map (10/28/08)
Debate Tonight
The Electoral College Map (10/28/08)
NOTE: Folks, I apologize for the delay getting today's map up. Last night's debate (further details forthcoming) on campus here at UGA threw me off my typical routine. I'll make it up to you with some interesting stuff throughout the afternoon. Anyway...
Well, we had plenty of polling to sift through on Monday. A total of 33 polls in 17 states -- including multiple surveys from states like Florida, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia -- provided enough new data to potentially shake up the graduated weighted averages here at FHQ. The picture created by the full day's set of polls, though, was one that continued the trend we have seen across most of the recent polling: Obama is ahead and seemingly comfortably so in enough states to be able win a week from today. Of course, as we've seen here for the last several weeks, Obama has been over the 270 electoral vote mark with or without any of the toss up states. Nothing on Monday changed that. However, the new polling did reposition several states on the Electoral College Spectrum below in some noteworthy ways.
The first thing about this series of polling is how overwhelmingly blue it is. Oklahoma, we can understand. And Indiana and West Virginia certainly look better for McCain in light of the Zogby polls in each. Indiana especially, is heading in the right direction after those two blue polls in the Hoosier state last week. But McCain's home state of Arizona looks bleak. Not Gore/Tennessee in 2000 bleak, but bleak nonetheless. Both states were/are trending away from their favorite sons, but Tennessee was further away from Gore in 2000 than Arizona is from McCain in 2008. Still, while single digits aren't ideal, the numbers Monday (+8 and +5 for McCain) were better than they were on Sunday (+2 and +4 for McCain). The Grand Canyon state's average is now under 10 points, though. Missouri, too, with each passing day, continues to inch closer and closer to the partisan line and a switch over into the blue. Regardless of our measure here, the Show-Me state is looking like as close to a dead heat as we may have next week. The last week of polling in Missouri has been dominated by one point margins in both directions.
[Click Map to Enlarge]
I'll get back to Missouri towards the end today, but let's look at the effect all those blue polls in Florida, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia had. Obviously, all are moving toward Obama at this point, but each had different starting points. Virginia's shift down the stretch has been notable. While it has been a toss up throughout, the Old Dominion was on the other side of both Ohio and Nevada on the McCain side of the partisan line not that long ago (during the last week of September). Virginia has switched from being a state that wasn't even on the Watch List -- state closest to changing categories -- as a possible switch into the Obama column to a state that is within a couple hundredths of a point of moving into the Obama lean category. If that Rasmussen/FOX poll (the poll most recently in the field in the state) of the state had shown a 5 point margin instead of a 4 point margin, Virginia would be a darker shade of blue today.
Florida's starting point was even further into McCain territory than Virginia, but the Sunshine state's shift has been nearly as large; switching from a state that treaded the line between the toss up and lean categories on the red side of the ledger to now being within half a point of moving off the Watch List into the "safer" area of the toss up category. Of course, that +/-3 point area is called toss up for a reason, but Florida's position switch has been a steadily consistent work-in-progress. Now, whether the Sunshine state ends up in the blue on the evening of November 4 is far from a certain outcome, but the fact that that is even possible now, given the state's position in the race over the summer is saying something. It was moderately controversial to question whether the state was a toss up then.
North Carolina and Ohio, too, have moved closer to or into Obama territory since the economic downturn during the latter half of September. The recent polling backs this up to some extent. In Ohio, the margin has spread out a little, while in North Carolina, there was a jump toward Obama that has since contracted some and settled into an area that puts the Tar Heels state on a trajectory similar to that of Missouri's -- trending toward a dead heat at the right time for Obama and the wrong time for McCain.
That the battle is being waged over this last week of the campaign in four Bush states says an awful lot about the state of the race. Sure, the McCain campaign was in Iowa over the weekend, but the numbers there aren't that promising. But the Hawkeye state was red four years ago too. The last hope state for McCain is Pennsylvania and that is really the only Kerry state being contested at this point (other than New Hampshire). And we see this on the map above, a map that continues to show Senator Obama ahead 338-200 with Missouri and North Carolina drawing closer as the race itself draws to a close.
But the big movers of the day were among the safe states. New York, California, Oregon and Washington all jumped up the rankings on the Electoral College Spectrum. Meanwhile, Arizona moved as well, just in a direction opposite of what the McCain campaign might like. Arizona has now joined Georgia to form a 'tweener group here at FHQ. Both are trending toward increased competitiveness, but are stuck on the low end of the strong McCain category. However, there is some distance between Arizona and Mississippi and between Georgia and West Virginia. Regardless, though each is moving toward Obama, neither is likely to jump over to Obama in the next week. That imaginary line between Arizona andMississippi South Dakota is one to make note of, though. Should the results of the election move into the landslide arena, that is likely the point to which Obama can stretch his coalition of states. The closer you get to that partisan line, however, the more likely it is that the Arizona senator could peel off any of those McCain states.
On the Watch List, Florida and Missouri are still the states to watch most closely when new polling is released. Missouri's magic number is now down to 9 (from 11), meaning that it would take a poll with a margin of 9 points in favor of Obama to shift the state into the blue. Alternately, Florida would have to give McCain a 13 point margin in the next poll to bring the Sunshine state back into the red in FHQ's averages. Comparatively, Missouri's magic number is shrinking while Florida's is growing. Neither can be seen as welcome news for the McCain campaign.
Recent Posts:
Debate Tonight
The Electoral College Map (10/27/08)
The Electoral College Map (10/26/08)
Well, we had plenty of polling to sift through on Monday. A total of 33 polls in 17 states -- including multiple surveys from states like Florida, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia -- provided enough new data to potentially shake up the graduated weighted averages here at FHQ. The picture created by the full day's set of polls, though, was one that continued the trend we have seen across most of the recent polling: Obama is ahead and seemingly comfortably so in enough states to be able win a week from today. Of course, as we've seen here for the last several weeks, Obama has been over the 270 electoral vote mark with or without any of the toss up states. Nothing on Monday changed that. However, the new polling did reposition several states on the Electoral College Spectrum below in some noteworthy ways.
| New Polls (Oct. 27) | |||
| State | Poll | Margin | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona | Rasmussen | +8 | |
| Arizona | N. Arizona Univ. | +5 | |
| California | Rasmussen | +27 | |
| Colorado | Rasmussen/FOX | +4 | |
| Florida | Suffolk | +5 | |
| Florida | Rasmussen/FOX | +4 | |
| Florida | Zogby | +0.3 | |
| Florida | Datamar | +5 | |
| Indiana | Zogby | +6.2 | |
| Iowa | Marist | +10 | |
| Missouri | Rasmussen/FOX | +1 | |
| Missouri | Zogby | +2.5 | |
| Missouri | Survey USA | 0 | |
| Nevada | Zogby | +4.2 | |
| New Hampshire | Marist | +5 | |
| New Hampshire | UNH | +16 | |
| New York | Siena | +31 | |
| North Carolina | Rasmussen/FOX | +1 | |
| North Carolina | Zogby | +3.3 | |
| North Carolina | Public Policy Polling | +1 | |
| Ohio | Rasmussen/FOX | +4 | |
| Ohio | Zogby | +4.6 | |
| Oklahoma | TvPoll | +26.8 | |
| Oregon | Survey USA | +19 | |
| Pennsylvania | Temple University | +9 | |
| Vermont | Research 2000 | +21 | |
| Virginia | Washington Post | +8 | |
| Virginia | Zogby | +7.2 | |
| Virginia | Survey USA | +9 | |
| Virginia | VCU | +11 | |
| Virginia | Rasmussen/FOX | +4 | |
| Washington | University of Washington | +21 | |
| West Virginia | Zogby | +9.9 | |
The first thing about this series of polling is how overwhelmingly blue it is. Oklahoma, we can understand. And Indiana and West Virginia certainly look better for McCain in light of the Zogby polls in each. Indiana especially, is heading in the right direction after those two blue polls in the Hoosier state last week. But McCain's home state of Arizona looks bleak. Not Gore/Tennessee in 2000 bleak, but bleak nonetheless. Both states were/are trending away from their favorite sons, but Tennessee was further away from Gore in 2000 than Arizona is from McCain in 2008. Still, while single digits aren't ideal, the numbers Monday (+8 and +5 for McCain) were better than they were on Sunday (+2 and +4 for McCain). The Grand Canyon state's average is now under 10 points, though. Missouri, too, with each passing day, continues to inch closer and closer to the partisan line and a switch over into the blue. Regardless of our measure here, the Show-Me state is looking like as close to a dead heat as we may have next week. The last week of polling in Missouri has been dominated by one point margins in both directions.
[Click Map to Enlarge]I'll get back to Missouri towards the end today, but let's look at the effect all those blue polls in Florida, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia had. Obviously, all are moving toward Obama at this point, but each had different starting points. Virginia's shift down the stretch has been notable. While it has been a toss up throughout, the Old Dominion was on the other side of both Ohio and Nevada on the McCain side of the partisan line not that long ago (during the last week of September). Virginia has switched from being a state that wasn't even on the Watch List -- state closest to changing categories -- as a possible switch into the Obama column to a state that is within a couple hundredths of a point of moving into the Obama lean category. If that Rasmussen/FOX poll (the poll most recently in the field in the state) of the state had shown a 5 point margin instead of a 4 point margin, Virginia would be a darker shade of blue today.
Florida's starting point was even further into McCain territory than Virginia, but the Sunshine state's shift has been nearly as large; switching from a state that treaded the line between the toss up and lean categories on the red side of the ledger to now being within half a point of moving off the Watch List into the "safer" area of the toss up category. Of course, that +/-3 point area is called toss up for a reason, but Florida's position switch has been a steadily consistent work-in-progress. Now, whether the Sunshine state ends up in the blue on the evening of November 4 is far from a certain outcome, but the fact that that is even possible now, given the state's position in the race over the summer is saying something. It was moderately controversial to question whether the state was a toss up then.
North Carolina and Ohio, too, have moved closer to or into Obama territory since the economic downturn during the latter half of September. The recent polling backs this up to some extent. In Ohio, the margin has spread out a little, while in North Carolina, there was a jump toward Obama that has since contracted some and settled into an area that puts the Tar Heels state on a trajectory similar to that of Missouri's -- trending toward a dead heat at the right time for Obama and the wrong time for McCain.
| The Electoral College Spectrum* | ||||
| HI-4 (7)** | ME-4 (157) | NH-4 (264/278) | ND-3 (160) | LA-9 (67) |
| VT-3 (10) | WA-11 (168) | CO-9*** (273/274) | WV-5 (157) | KY-8 (58) |
| NY-31 (41) | OR-7 (175) | VA-13 (286/265) | GA-15 (152) | KS-6 (50) |
| IL-21 (62) | NJ-15 (190) | OH-20 (306/252) | AZ-10 (137) | TN-11 (44) |
| RI-4 (66) | IA-7 (197) | NV-5 (311/232) | SD-3 (127) | NE-5 (33) |
| MD-10 (76) | MN-10 (207) | FL-27 (338/227) | MS-6 (124) | AL-9 (28) |
| MA-12 (88) | PA-21 (228) | MO-11 (349/200) | TX-34 (118) | WY-3 (19) |
| CA-55 (143) | WI-10 (238) | NC-15 (364/189) | AK-3 (84) | ID-4 (16) |
| DE-3 (146) | NM-5 (243) | IN-11 (375/174) | AR-6 (81) | OK-7 (12) |
| CT-7 (153) | MI-17 (260) | MT-3 (163) | SC-8 (75) | UT-5 (5) |
| *Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. **The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, McCain won all the states up to and including Colorado (all Obama's toss up states plus Colorado), he would have 274 electoral votes. Both candidates numbers are only totaled through their rival's toss up states. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and McCain's is on the right in italics. ***Colorado is the state where Obama crosses (or McCain would cross) the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. It is currently favoring Obama, thus the blue text in that cell. | ||||
That the battle is being waged over this last week of the campaign in four Bush states says an awful lot about the state of the race. Sure, the McCain campaign was in Iowa over the weekend, but the numbers there aren't that promising. But the Hawkeye state was red four years ago too. The last hope state for McCain is Pennsylvania and that is really the only Kerry state being contested at this point (other than New Hampshire). And we see this on the map above, a map that continues to show Senator Obama ahead 338-200 with Missouri and North Carolina drawing closer as the race itself draws to a close.
But the big movers of the day were among the safe states. New York, California, Oregon and Washington all jumped up the rankings on the Electoral College Spectrum. Meanwhile, Arizona moved as well, just in a direction opposite of what the McCain campaign might like. Arizona has now joined Georgia to form a 'tweener group here at FHQ. Both are trending toward increased competitiveness, but are stuck on the low end of the strong McCain category. However, there is some distance between Arizona and Mississippi and between Georgia and West Virginia. Regardless, though each is moving toward Obama, neither is likely to jump over to Obama in the next week. That imaginary line between Arizona and
| The Watch List* | |||
| State | Switch | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Colorado | from Obama lean | to Toss Up Obama | |
| Florida | from Toss Up Obama | to Toss Up McCain | |
| Georgia | from Strong McCain | to McCain lean | |
| Michigan | from Obama lean | to Strong Obama | |
| Missouri | from Toss Up McCain | to Toss Up Obama | |
| Montana | from McCain lean | to Toss Up McCain | |
| New Mexico | from Obama lean | to Strong Obama | |
| Virginia | from Toss Up Obama | to Obama lean | |
| *Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories. | |||
On the Watch List, Florida and Missouri are still the states to watch most closely when new polling is released. Missouri's magic number is now down to 9 (from 11), meaning that it would take a poll with a margin of 9 points in favor of Obama to shift the state into the blue. Alternately, Florida would have to give McCain a 13 point margin in the next poll to bring the Sunshine state back into the red in FHQ's averages. Comparatively, Missouri's magic number is shrinking while Florida's is growing. Neither can be seen as welcome news for the McCain campaign.
Recent Posts:
Debate Tonight
The Electoral College Map (10/27/08)
The Electoral College Map (10/26/08)
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