- Another big daily digest update on primary calendar maneuvering in the mid-Atlantic and northeast and possible delegate allocation rules changes by Republican state parties in a pair of big states. All the details at FHQ Plus.
Thursday, June 8, 2023
Pat Robertson, 1988 and the Modern Caucus Strategy in Republican Presidential Politics
Tuesday, June 6, 2023
Launch Week Continues & Biden and the Iowa "Caucuses"
- With state legislative sessions winding down, things have gotten kind of quiet in terms of the primary calendar and rules for 2024. But that does not mean that nothing has been going on. In fact, it is picking up once more with some big-ish changes to delegate allocation for New York Republicans. All the details at FHQ Plus.
“I think that President Biden is not going to even put his name in Iowa and New Hampshire. So I think he’s not even going to compete,” Kennedy added.
The grumbling in the NBC story about the GOP's canvassing operations - "That’s why we’re losing elections," one anonymous source is quoted as saying - doesn't sound like sour grapes from a competing consultant. But it's also not clear to an outsider how effective paid canvassing is, especially in the final weeks of the campaign.
One thing is pretty certain: paid canvassing isn't going away, and one important reason why is primary elections, where a party apparatus usually isn't available to help pull in volunteers.
- Former Vice President Mike Pence filed paperwork with the Federal Elections Commission on Monday to run for president ahead of his Iowa launch on Wednesday, June 7.
- Taking a different route than most recent prospective presidential candidates, New Hampshire Governor Chris Sununu opted not to run for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination, calling on candidates to "not get into this race to further a vanity campaign, to sell books or to audition to serve as Donald Trump’s vice president." Seth Masket has more on Sununu's decision at Tusk. But the University of New Hampshire's Dante Scala pushed back on any impact Sununu would have had one way or the other. All FHQ would add is that a Sununu entry was very unlikely to make New Hampshire irrelevant for 2024. He has basically been flirting with the delegate qualifying threshold (10 percent) in public opinion polling in the Granite state. Sununu is no Tom Harkin in Iowa, circa 1992. He was not deterring anyone.
- On the other hand, North Dakota Republican Governor Doug Burgum has a new extended video out ahead of his announcement on Wednesday, June 7.
Sunday, June 4, 2023
Sunday Series: Demystifying Delegate Allocation and Delegate Selection
Taylor Swift and National Conventions
Hijacking who gets tickets
Conclusion
Friday, June 2, 2023
Real Talk: FHQ has to roll its eyes at coverage of this new caucus law in Iowa. It's bad.
This new law does not affect the delegate selection plans for 2024 that Iowa Democrats have previewed. It does not. Read the language of the change:
If the state central committee of a political party chooses to select its delegates as a part of the presidential nominating process at political party precinct caucuses on the date provided in subsection 1, the precinct caucuses shall take place in person among the participants physically present at the location of each precinct caucus.
Everything one needs to know about that entire section and how it interacts with the Iowa Democratic Party delegate selection plan is right there in that one highlighted word, select. The proposed vote-by-mail component of the Democrats’ defined “caucus” procedure has nothing to do with the process of selecting delegates. It has everything to do with the allocation of delegates. That all-mail presidential preference vote affects the allocation and not the selection process. As such, it is unaffected by what Governor Reynolds signed into law on Thursday.
- In the staff primary, Senator Tim Scott beefed up his Iowa team, hiring Annie Kelly Kuhle, who was Jeb Bush's Iowa state director for 2016, to reprise her role along with Jeff Glassburner. Scott also brought on George Anderson, Cole Kramersmeier and Andy Finzer as part of the Iowa team, all folks with deep ties and experience in Hawkeye state Republican politics.
- On the travel primary side, Governor Ron DeSantis treks from New Hampshire yesterday to first-in-the-South South Carolina today. He has three stops in the Palmetto state, hitting all three regions in Beaufort (Low Country), Lexington (Midlands) and Greenville (Upstate).
- Senator Joni Ernst's Roast and Ride event will feature eight announced or prospective Republican presidential candidates this weekend.
Thursday, June 1, 2023
Republican Sound and Fury in Nevada Over 2024 Presidential Primary, Signifying Little
- Folks are starting to look more at the 2024 primary calendar and while there is uncertainty as to its final state, it can be narrowed down to a limited number of questions in a handful of states. An update on the calendar at FHQ Plus.
- In the staff primary, Donald Trump hired Eric Hollander to oversee operations in Iowa and New Hampshire. Hollander's presidential campaign experience includes being a part of the Cruz operation in South Carolina in 2016 before moving on to lead the campaign in Illinois, a state with notoriously difficult delegate rules.
- It was nice to see some actual analysis in press coverage of the steep odds a late-entry Glenn Youngkin bid for the Republican nomination would face.
- Former Vice President Mike Pence will enter the presidential race on Wednesday, June 7 in Iowa. Pence will be a part of a busy week for candidate entry with Chris Christie set to announce Tuesday in New Hampshire and Doug Burgum launching his campaign on Wednesday as well.
- The busy travel primary week in Iowa continues on Thursday. Donald Trump returns to the Hawkeye state in the wake of DeSantis stops there. Senator Joni Ernst's Roast and Ride is also this weekend in Iowa.
Wednesday, May 31, 2023
Nevada Republicans Sue to Restore Presidential Caucuses
- FHQ mentioned last week that the Georgia Republican state convention next week would feature three presidential candidates. Well, make that four. According to the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, former Vice President Mike Pence will join Donald Trump, Asa Hutchinson and Vivek Ramaswamy as a speaker at the convention next week. [Speaking of the Peach state, the AJC also has a cool presidential candidate visit (to Georgia) tracker.]
- Axios has the scoop that Chris Christie will announce his presidential run in New Hampshire next Tuesday.
- Ron DeSantis was in Iowa yesterday and the state will be big for the Florida governor. But despite the fact that Karl Rove is raving about the strategy and the success it has had for (recent) past Iowa caucus winners, no one since George W. Bush has won Iowa and gone on to claim the Republican presidential nomination.
- Tim Scott is coming off a recent trip to New Hampshire, but his faith-based campaign is not necessarily a good fit in the Granite state. NH Journal looks at the angle Scott's campaign is taking.
Tuesday, May 30, 2023
Iowa Democrats' Last Hail Mary and Calendar Chaos
- Be on the lookout for a fun new post later today. If you have been on the fence about subscribing to FHQ Plus during our first couple of months, this one might be one to get you off of it. Come check out FHQ Plus.
"Now, the DNC voted to boot Iowa out of the early window, but their calendar is currently in chaos. Governor Kim Reynolds, a Republican, has until the end of the week to sign a bill that could deny Iowa Democrats their kind of like last Hail Mary to try and stay in the early window."
- He notes that Trump 2023 is in a position not dissimilar to Hillary Clinton's in 2007-08 in her Democratic nomination fight. The former president is in a good spot, but not an unbeatable one. Still, he also is not far off from where Clinton was in 2016 either. Ultimately, there was a unified opposition to Clinton in 2015-16, but it was not a large enough bloc to prevent a Clinton nomination. There is not a unified Trump opposition at this point. At this point.
- This really should be repeated and repeated and repeated: "Yes, it matters if a lot of candidates each have 5 to 10 percent of the vote, but that doesn’t tend to be how these things play out. You tend to see three or four candidates with the bulk of the vote, and the rest hovering just above zero. (At the beginning of January 2016, only four of the 17-ish Republican presidential candidates had above 5 percent. At the beginning of January 2020, only four of the 20-ish Democratic presidential candidates had above 5 percent.)" Maybe 2023-24 will be different, but there has been a very distinct tendency in how this has worked in recent cycles.
- Chris Christie has his own super PAC now. [It is funny. A day after FHQ said there would not be too many RNC member endorsements in the 2024 race, one -- William Palatucci -- from New Jersey pops up as the head of this super PAC. Count that as one for Christie in the endorsement primary. In an open race, the expectation remains that these types of endorsements will be fewer and farther between.]
- On the travel primary side, DeSantis descends on Iowa today.
Friday, May 19, 2023
The Disconnect on Iowa and New Hampshire 2024
- With the end of its legislative session approaching, it looks as if New York will set in motion its unique method of codifying the presidential primary date and delegate allocation rules for 2024. All the details at FHQ Plus.
- Remember the talk from back in March of North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum's trip to Iowa and subsequent question ducking back home? Well, Burgum is hiring consultants with past presidential campaign experience. Does one call a Burgum rise in public opinion polls Mo-Burgum or Burg-mentum?
- New Hampshire Governor Chris Sununu also looks inclined to throw his hat in the ring if the calls to and positive feedback from donors are any indication.
- And Glenn Youngkin, the Virginia governor who has had a will he or won't he tennis match act going around a possible 2024 presidential run, has a new ad running nationally. The full picture shows the sort of decisiveness that some voters tend to like in presidential candidates and reward.
- Tim Scott, who is on the cusp of an announcement this coming Monday, May 22, picked up his first Senate endorsement. South Dakota Senator Mike Rounds threw his support behind his South Carolina colleague. Donald Trump is the only other candidate with backing from members of the Senate. [Scott's campaign has also made a big nearly $6 million ad buy for Iowa and New Hampshire set to run through August and the first Republican presidential primary debate.]
- Former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, who may have an impending announcement of his own "in the coming days," secured the support of former White House communications director Anthony Scaramucci. On its own, that endorsement does not carry much weight so much as it is a further signal that the party is not as united behind Trump as it was in 2019. And there is ample evidence of that elsewhere. The bigger news from Scaramucci is that Christie will have some financial backing.
- Senate Minority Whip John Cornyn (R-TX) did not go quite as far as Todd Young did last week, but he did inch up pretty close to an unendorsement of Donald Trump in comments about the former president's prospects of winning a general election in 2024.
- South Carolina Congresswoman Nancy Mace hinted earlier this week that Nikki Haley may add another endorsement from the Palmetto state's congressional delegation at some point.
Wednesday, May 17, 2023
Chaos? What Chaos? Iowa Republicans signal January caucuses, but that has been clear for a while.
- Iowa Democrats continue to behave differently than New Hampshire Democrats in their respective 2024 primary calendar battle with the DNC and more is settled about Kansas delegate allocation than some realize. All the details at FHQ Plus.
- And ICYMI yesterday (because of the wrong link): The Quirks of Scheduling a South Carolina Presidential Primary
“It looks as though we're heading for a mid-January caucus,” Republican Party of Iowa Chair Jeff Kaufmann said in an interview. “But it's still very unsettled. … That uncertainty prevents me from saying anything definitive.”
Scott Brennan, Iowa’s representative to the [DNC] Rules and Bylaws Committee, said the committee will meet in June, but he doesn’t expect the group to consider Iowa’s proposal until its meeting in July.
“My guess is that they will find the plan noncompliant because it does not have a date for the caucuses,” he said.