Friday, June 2, 2023

Real Talk: FHQ has to roll its eyes at coverage of this new caucus law in Iowa. It's bad.

Invisible Primary: Visible -- Thoughts on the invisible primary and links to the goings on of the moment as 2024 approaches...


This new law does not affect the delegate selection plans for 2024 that Iowa Democrats have previewed. It does not. Read the language of the change:

If the state central committee of a political party chooses to select its delegates as a part of the presidential nominating process at political party precinct caucuses on the date provided in subsection 1, the precinct caucuses shall take place in person among the participants physically present at the location of each precinct caucus.

Everything one needs to know about that entire section and how it interacts with the Iowa Democratic Party delegate selection plan is right there in that one highlighted word, select. The proposed vote-by-mail component of the Democrats’ defined “caucus” procedure has nothing to do with the process of selecting delegates. It has everything to do with the allocation of delegates. That all-mail presidential preference vote affects the allocation and not the selection process. As such, it is unaffected by what Governor Reynolds signed into law on Thursday. 

The selection process for delegates to the national convention will commence at the precinct caucuses, presumably on the same night for Democrats in Iowa as Republicans. According to the draft plan from Iowa Democrats, that part will be conducted in person. It would comply with the new law.

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Nate Cohn is good at the Upshot on millennials' party identification. They will not all be voting in the Democratic primaries (or for the Democrat in the general election) in 2024.

Invisible Primary quick hits:
  • In the staff primary, Senator Tim Scott beefed up his Iowa team, hiring Annie Kelly Kuhle, who was Jeb Bush's Iowa state director for 2016, to reprise her role along with Jeff Glassburner. Scott also brought on George Anderson, Cole Kramersmeier and Andy Finzer as part of the Iowa team, all folks with deep ties and experience in Hawkeye state Republican politics. 
  • On the travel primary side, Governor Ron DeSantis treks from New Hampshire yesterday to first-in-the-South South Carolina today. He has three stops in the Palmetto state, hitting all three regions in Beaufort (Low Country), Lexington (Midlands) and Greenville (Upstate). 
  • Senator Joni Ernst's Roast and Ride event will feature eight announced or prospective Republican presidential candidates this weekend. 

On this date... 1992, Arkansas Governor Bill Clinton swept primaries in Alabama, California, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico and Ohio to win enough delegates to secure the Democratic presidential nomination. President George H.W. Bush won contests in all six as well, including a beauty contest win in Montana. 2011, former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney announced his bid for the 2012 Republican presidential nomination. 2020, former Vice President Joe Biden won seven contests in Indiana, Maryland, Montana, New Mexico, Rhode Island, South Dakota and Washington, DC to inch within range of claiming the requisite number of delegates to clinch the Democratic nomination. [He was declared the winner in Pennsylvania as well, but voting in the Keystone state would not complete for another week in some areas.]


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