Iowa Republican caucuses remain at the head of the 2028 presidential primary queue

Tom Barton at The Gazette in Cedar Rapids, IA with the latest on the Republican National Committee locking in Iowa as the first-in-the-nation contest for 2028:

"Iowa will retain its first-in-the-nation position in the Republican presidential nominating process in 2028, preserving the state’s influential role in GOP presidential politics even as national Democrats again move forward without Iowa in their early-state lineup.

"The Republican National Committee approved its presidential nominating calendar Thursday during the party’s gathering in Dallas, maintaining the traditional “carve-out” states with Iowa first, followed by New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina, according to the Republican Party of Iowa.

"The vote followed approval Wednesday by the RNC Rules Committee and comes after months of work by a committee led by Republican Party of Iowa Chairman Jeff Kaufmann.

“'I’m pleased to announce that Iowa’s First in the Nation status is officially preserved through 2028,' Kaufmann said in a statement. 'As Chair of the RNC’s Presidential Nominating Process Committee, I led the effort to keep Iowa first and protect the carve-out system. Democrats may have abandoned Iowa, but Republicans under President Trump and RNC Chairman Gruters are committed to ensuring the Iowa caucuses remain a defining part of the presidential nominating process.'"

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Noteworthy: This has not exactly been a mystery. Republicans in the traditional early states and in and around the RNC have signaled that the status quo calendar was likely to be maintained for the 2028. And the national party has now confirmed that at its summer meeting in Dallas, TX. The caucuses in Iowa will once again lead off the 2028 Republican primary calendar followed by contests in New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina. 

The order suggests that South Carolina Republicans have permanently ceded the third slot on the calendar to Nevada, something that was not in the national party rules for 2024, but Palmetto state Republicans voluntarily gave up for a spot right before Super Tuesday. That is a fairly significant change to what had been a longstanding alignment in the Republican calendar since 1980. South Carolina had not only been the first-in-the-South state in the Republican process -- it retains that position -- but also the third state. The RNC rules now imply the primary in the Palmetto state will fall fourth in the order. 

[FHQ uses terms like imply and suggests because, unlike the Democratic Party rules, the Republican rules do not give specific dates for these early contests. There is a list of carve-out states and therein an implicit order. But it is not mandated as South Carolina Republicans showed in shifting to fourth from third in the list for 2024.]

But while those questions have been addressed about the Republicans' 2028 primary calendar, other important ones remain unanswered for the time being.

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Related at FHQ Plus (subscription)...

Is calendar chaos in the offing for 2028? 

The notion is neither farfetched nor on anyone’s radar as the focus shifts to the Republicans’ calendar

At FHQ Plus: Republicans ease into bonus delegates for 2028

Over at FHQ Plus...

Often, when FHQ delves into delegate numbers, it is with a focus on delegate allocation, or how primary or caucus votes translate into delegate slots awarded to candidates. However, from time to time, there is some attention paid in this space to delegate apportionment, or how many delegates each state has to allocate in its presidential primary, caucus or convention.

And there is a reason for that more sporadic treatment of delegate apportionment: the formulas the Democratic National Committee (DNC) and Republican National Committee (RNC) use to make those determinations are much less variable over time. But layered into both are bonus delegate schemes that raise the number of allocable delegates from the base total initially apportioned to each state and territory.

Actually, there are two types of bonus delegates built into each party’s formula. The first and most common is a party strength component. The intent is basically to account for how Democratic or Republican a state or congressional district therein has been in recent elections. As a result, states with similarly sized populations end up with vastly different delegate totals in both parties’ formulas. Maryland, for example, has a much higher number of delegates on the Democratic side than do Democrats in, say, Missouri. But the opposite is true in the Republican process: Show-Me state Republicans are apportioned more delegates than Republicans from very blue Maryland. And again, that is despite similar population sizes across both states.

Importantly, the Democratic formula parcels out those party strength bonuses over all jurisdictions, statewide and in each of the several congressional districts. That is why the number of delegates in any given congressional district varies within states. Let’s use Maryland again. Across the eight districts in the Old Line state, there was a range of delegates in 2024 from six delegates in the least Democratic districts to ten in the most Democratic one. And in more Republican states, especially those with majority-minority districts, that gap can be a bit wider, ranging from as few as three delegates to as many as around 10 (plus or minus a delegate or two).

In contrast, there is no variation on the congressional district level in the Republican process. They all have a baseline three delegates. Where there is variation on the party strength vector is in the at-large pool of delegates that are allocated based on the statewide results. Now, go back to Missouri. The Republican Party there got at-large bonuses in 2024 for electing a Republican governor (one delegate), electing a majority of Republicans in the congressional delegation (one), electing a majority of any state legislative chamber (one), having any state legislative chamber presided over by a Republican (one) and electing two US senators (one delegate for each). Each state also receives 4.5 delegates plus 60 percent of that state’s total number of electoral votes if the state in question voted Republican in the previous presidential election. In Missouri’s case that is 4.5 delegates plus six (10 electoral votes * 0.6) or 11 additional at-large delegates. That equals 17 bonus delegates in a delegation of 54, a little less than a third of the delegation.

All told, those party strength bonuses are pretty standard. After all, it is rational that the parties would prefer to give voice to their supporters in states and congressional districts throughout the country. That Democrats would weight areas where there are actual Democrats and Republicans would do likewise with those affiliated with the GOP is understandable.

But there is another type of delegate bonuses where the parties prioritize other elements of the process outside of party strength. It is on this front where Democrats have been active for a few cycles now, but Republicans have only now ventured toward for 2028. Over at FHQ Plus, I will shift the focus to this other type of bonuses and what addition the RNC has layered into their process for this next cycle.

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Republican rule changes for the 2028 cycle

The RNC's work on delegate rules isn't done, but the baseline is different on several fronts from the regulations that guided the 2024 process

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"SC Democrats set their presidential primary date. When will GOP contest happen?"

Joseph Bustos at The State in Columbia, SC checks in on when Palmetto state Republicans might schedule their presidential primary now that South Carolina Democrats have their date:

"With South Carolina Democrats planning to hold their presidential primary Jan. 22, 2028, now Republicans have to decide when they want to have their primary.

The Palmetto State will be the first in the nation primary for Democrats. South Carolina Republicans will hold the GOP’s first in the South contest.

Both primaries have proven pivotal in whom each party nominates to be president.

SC GOP Chairman Drew McKissick told reporters that he and leaders of the Republican parties in Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada will meet at the Republican National Committee’s meeting in September in Dallas to discuss the calendar, including when the early window closes.

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Noteworthy: Perhaps things have changed for the 2028 cycle, but it might be a while before South Carolina Republicans weigh in on where exactly their presidential primary may be on the primary calendar for 2028. It was mid-June 2023 when the state party set the date for the 2024 cycle. And that came after much of the dust had settled on the calendar for that cycle. That has tended to be the protocol for early states, especially on the Republican side where specific dates are not spelled out in RNC rules for the early carve-outs.

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The Annotated 2028 Presidential Primary Calendar 

Tracking the evolution of the timeline of delegate selection events that will determine the next presidential nominees

At FHQ Plus: DNC reverses course on ranked choice voting rule

Over at FHQ Plus...

The DNC adopted the rules that will govern the party’s 2028 presidential nomination process at its summer meeting in Austin, TX on Saturday, August 15. Within the report from the Rules and Bylaws Committee (RBC) were the delegate selection rules, the call for the convention and the six Rule 12 waivers that set the lineup of primaries in the Democrats’ early window on the 2028 presidential primary calendar.

But the report was not adopted as it passed the RBC at its meeting on July 24. One amendment was offered and adopted before the amended rules package was put before the full DNC membership for consideration. And that change was in regard to the language affecting ranked choice voting (RCV) in Rule 14.A that was adopted by the panel back in the spring.

So what was the change and what does it mean for RCV and the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028? Over at FHQ Plus, I will have a brief look at things in reaction to the decisions made in Austin.

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What's up with Democrats and ranked choice voting for 2028?

A proposed rules change the DNC is poised to adopt in Austin this week has triggered worries in some states and stirred backlash among RCV proponents. But is it in danger of not passing?

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At FHQ Plus: What's up with Democrats and ranked choice voting for 2028?

Over at FHQ Plus...

More than two months ago the DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee (RBC) initially passed some changes to the party’s delegate selection rules for 2028 that would effectively ban the use of ranked choice voting (RCV) in the delegate allocation process for the upcoming presidential nomination race. It was a bit of news that remained mostly quiet in the immediate aftermath as FHQ noted at the time. And all remained that way when the panel revisited the issue at its June meeting and rejected an amended version, sticking with the original tweak to Rule 14.A.

Now, the entire set of changes made by the RBC to the rules for 2028 is on the verge of coming before the full DNC for a final vote at its summer meeting in Austin, TX. And with it, rumblings about the RCV change are seemingly increasing. But the budding backlash to the change is, on the one hand, misguided and, on the other, missing some context that is important to the consideration of why the DNC may be heading down this particular path for this cycle. Over at FHQ Plus, I will contextualize matters a bit.

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The Democrats and ranked choice voting in the 2028 presidential nomination process

Coming off a Rules and Bylaws Committee meeting primarily devoted to the primary calendar, the headline maybe instead should be about RCV.

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RNC Chair expects Iowa to be first on Republicans' 2028 presidential primary calendar

Stephen Gruber-Miller at the Des Moines Register provides an update on the Republican primary calendar and Iowa's likely place in it:

"The chair of the Republican National Committee says Iowa is all but certain to lead off the GOP presidential nominating process in 2028 after Democrats removed the state's first-in-the-nation status.

"'The road to the presidency starts here in Iowa,' RNC Chair Joe Gruters said Wednesday, Aug. 12, in an interview with the Des Moines Register. 'The fact that the Democrats just voted to remove Iowa from the primary calendar versus what we did. I put Chairman (Jeff) Kaufmann, your Republican Party of Iowa chairman, front and center. He's the chairman of our primary calendar. That's how much we value Iowa.'

"The RNC tapped Kaufmann in October 2025 to lead the committee tasked with determining the order of the 2028 presidential nominating calendar. Kaufmann held the same post ahead of the 2024 election, when Iowa went first and President Donald Trump overwhelmingly won the Iowa Caucuses.

"The party has not formally set its 2028 nominating calendar, but Gruters expressed confidence about Iowa's place."

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Noteworthy: It has not exactly been a mystery that the Republican Party would carry on with the traditional four states -- Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina -- atop its presidential primary calendar for 2028. However, the unanswered question is whether those four will be joined by other states ahead of Super Tuesday due to the new Democratic primary calendar. Yes or no, there are implications for the early calendar on the Republican side and how the nomination race may progress.

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Related at FHQ Plus (subscription)...

The Annotated 2028 Presidential Primary Calendar 

Tracking the evolution of the timeline of delegate selection events that will determine the next presidential nominees

At FHQ Plus: Leftovers: 2028 delegate allocation in the Republican presidential nomination process

Over at FHQ Plus...

In researching the recent post on the Republican early calendar rules for 2028, FHQ ran across a couple of items that, while neither fit in there, merit some mention in this space. One is minor -- South Carolina Republican allocation -- and the other, one that will likely ultimately fall into the same minor category, has major implications for how delegates will be allocated in the Republican process in 2028 as things stand now. I explore both in depth over at FHQ Plus.

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Is the early 2028 Republican presidential primary calendar set?

The national party rules seem to say yes, but...

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At FHQ Plus: Is the early 2028 Republican presidential primary calendar set?

Over at FHQ Plus...

The early 2028 calendar: Democratic change, Republican stability

The running assumption with respect to the 2028 presidential primary calendar — the early window of it anyway — is that the Democratic National Committee will reprise its 2024 calendar process and, at a bare minimum, explore changes to the states that will comprise the lineup of early contests in the presidential nomination process for the coming cycle. Actually, that is not an assumption at all. Democrats are in the midst of that review process with pitches for early state status from state parties involved now in the rearview. And a decision could come this week.

To the extent there is one, then, the assumption is across the aisle with Republicans and their calendar maneuvering — or lack thereof — ahead of the 2028 cycle. Reporting thus far has indicated that the GOP has adopted and appears to be sticking with a calendar rules package that is more traditional than that of their Democratic counterparts. In other words, the assumption has been that the Republican National Committee is very likely to sign off on and stick with the traditional lineup of early state contests: Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada.

The ultimate Republican rules will not likely specify it — they have not in past cycles and do not in the current (convention-adopted) rules for 2028 — but the expectation is that Iowa’s caucuses will precede the New Hampshire primary and that the Republican contests in Nevada and South Carolina will follow thereafter in some order. Yet, that expectation may not match reality in the end and for a variety of reasons. Over at FHQ Plus, I will explore those reasons that rules-based expectations may or may not be reflected in the eventual lineup of states on the 2028 presidential primary calendar.

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Related at FHQ Plus (subscription)...

The Annotated 2028 Presidential Primary Calendar

Tracking the evolution of the timeline of delegate selection events that will determine the next presidential nominees

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At FHQ Plus: The die appears cast for ranked choice voting in the 2028 presidential nomination races

Over at FHQ Plus...

Ranked choice voting?

Again? Come on, FHQ. Didn’t you already write — at length — about Democrats and RCV not all that long ago?

I did.

However, while the national party’s Rules and Bylaws Committee (RBC) voted in late May to restrict the use of RCV in the delegate allocation portion of the presidential nomination process, the panel left open the door for reconsideration of the decision before the 2028 rules are finalized. And the RBC revisited the changes to Rule 14.A at their most recent meeting in Pittsburgh at the end of June.

So think of this update as the next chapter (if not coda for the 2028 cycle) to the story.

What exactly happened in Pittsburgh, how does it affect the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination process and how does this compare to what Republicans are doing with regard to RCV for 2028? FHQ dives into those questions over at FHQ Plus.

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Related at FHQ Plus (subscription)...

The Democrats and ranked choice voting in the 2028 presidential nomination process

Coming off a Rules and Bylaws Committee meeting primarily devoted to the primary calendar, the headline maybe instead should be about RCV.

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"SC Republicans likely to keep coveted first-in-the-South presidential primary spot in 2028"

Anna Wilder of the Charleston Post & Courier updates the 2028 presidential primary calendar maneuvering on the Republican side:

"South Carolina Republicans likely will keep the coveted role of first-in-the-South on the 2028 presidential primary calendar after a Republican National Convention committee moved to secure that early slot last week.

"South Carolina has been the first Southern state to vote in the presidential primary since 1980, championing the significance of the position. For years, the state has consistently backed the person who would become the Republican presidential nominee. Only one candidate, Newt Gingrich in 2012, did not become the nominee after South Carolina voted for him.

"Tyson Grinstead, the South Carolina GOP committeeman, said the Jan. 22 committee meeting in Santa Barbara, Calif., was significant for the state. Members, including Grinstead, voted on a plan to keep the same calendar as before."

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Noteworthy: While it almost always seemed like the Presidential Nominating Process Committee, empowered by the RNC to reexamine the delegate selection rules, would vote to carry over the same early calendar lineup the national party has employed in recent cycles, it was perhaps not a mere formality. As Wilder highlighted:

"Those familiar with the decision said the spot has been competitive in the past and was again this year, as Florida had been eyeing the leadoff Southern spot. In 2012, Florida attempted to take it, but South Carolina moved its date up.

"Ultimately, the chair of the Florida Republican Party, Evan Power, made the motion for South Carolina to keep the spot at the Jan. 22 meeting, despite Florida’s effort to grab it."

Again, all signs consistently pointed toward Republicans once again carving out space before Super Tuesday on the 2028 presidential primary calendar for Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina (the latter two in some yet-to-be-determined order), but it appears that there was at least some room for other states to make a case. And just as Michigan had a history of trying to break through into the early window of the Democratic nomination process (before finding success), Florida has a history on the Republican side. 

Only, Republicans in the Sunshine state were not successful this time around. 

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The seeming absence of Georgia in these discussions is noteworthy as well. The Peach state secured a waiver (ultimately rescinded) from the DNC to conduct an early primary in 2024, but were unable to bring any move of the primary into the early window to fruition. In that process in 2023, there was some acknowledgment from the Republican secretary of state in Georgia of the value of an early presidential primary. But he punted any action on that idea to 2028. 

Thus far, the notion of placing general election battlegrounds into the early window of the presidential primary calendar is one more firmly held on the Democratic side than among Republicans. ...for this cycle anyway.

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The report from the Presidential Nominating Process Committee now moves on to a vote by the RNC Rules Committee. A majority vote there would send it to the full RNC for consideration, where a three-quarters vote is required for final passage. 

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Related at FHQ Plus (subscription)...

Republican rule changes for the 2028 cycle 

The RNC's work on delegate rules isn't done, but the baseline is different on several fronts from the regulations that guided the 2024 process

RNC Chair names members of the 2028 Presidential Nominating Process Committee

September 30 was not just the end of the fiscal year for the federal government. Under the rules of the Republican National Committee (RNC), it was also deadline day for the national party chair to name the members of the Standing Committee on the Presidential Nominating Process for the 2028 cycle. 

According to Rule 10(a)(9):

There shall be a Standing Committee on the Presidential Nominating Process to review the rules governing the nomination of the Republican Party’s presidential nominee. The chairman of the Republican National Committee shall appoint all temporary members of the Standing Committee on the Presidential Nominating Process, not to exceed eleven (11) members, and shall appoint one (1) as chairman, and the chairman of the Republican National Committee shall serve as an ex officio member. The chairman of the Republican National Committee shall convene the Standing Committee on the Presidential Nominating process at his discretion, but no later than September 30 of the year following a presidential election. The Standing Committee on the Presidential Nominating Process shall make any recommendations it deems appropriate and report such recommendations to the Republican National Committee no later than June 30 of the year two years prior to a presidential election.

At least two of the new members of panel have come forward publicly following the appointment:

1. Republican Party of Florida Chair Evan Power

   Honored to have been appointed to the @GOP committee on the Presidential Nominating Process pic.twitter.com/fPr0gf4FVG

   — Evan Power (@EvanPower) September 30, 2025

   More here:

   “I am deeply honored to serve on the RNC’s Standing Committee on the Presidential Nominating Process,” Power said.

   
   

   “Having participated in multiple national conventions, I’ve seen firsthand how a strong, inclusive nominating process empowers our voters and elevates principled candidates. I look forward to working with fellow committee members to refine our rules, promote geographic diversity, and build on the successes we’ve achieved in Florida — ensuring the Republican Party remains united and ready to win big in the cycles ahead.”

    

2. West Virginia Republican National Committeeman Larry Pack

   I’m proud to have been appointed to serve on the @GOP RNC Committee on Presidential Nominating Process. It’s time to begin preparing for 2028 and a GOP victory

   — Larry Pack (@LarryPack) September 30, 2025

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Noteworthy: Comparatively, Republican rules set up a timeline for crafting a presidential nomination cycle's rules that is modestly more compact than what is likely to occur on the Democratic side. The DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee (RBC) has been at work throughout 2025 but was not fully seated until August. Yes, the primary calendar rules will gain all of the attention, but the RBC will work through not only the full delegate selection rules but the Call to the Convention as well into 2026. Although the calendar work may extend beyond next summer, the remainder of the 2028 rules will likely be set in stone by August 2026. 

Republicans, on the other hand, have just empaneled their nominating rules committee whose work is due to the full RNC in the form of recommended changes (if any) by June 30, 2026. The RNC then has until September 30, 2026 to finalize and adopt the rules that will govern the 2028 presidential nomination process. It all occurs in a window that is exactly one year long. 

[Under Rule 12, September 30, 2026 is the last date on which amendments can be made to a subset of the Rules of the Republican Party for the 2028 cycle.]