The 2012 Presidential Primary Calendar (5/19/11)

First of all, FHQ wants to be very careful with the 2012 Presidential Primary Calendar from this point forward. This calendar and those in the future will likely not go over well in some quarters, so let me explain the rationale behind where Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina are placed on the calendar now that Florida is officially without a primary date. The newly-created Presidential Preference Primary Date Selection Committee has until October 1 to choose a date for the presidential primary. That date will be between the first Tuesday in January and the first Tuesday in March. Now, if the committee selects March 6 -- the first Tuesday in March -- like many other states, the dates the parties have set aside for the exempted four early states will hold. Those dates on the calendar below are denoted by a "based on national party rules" tag.

But there is an opposite end of that spectrum, too. If the Florida committee selects January 3 -- the first Tuesday in January -- for the Sunshine state primary, that will obviously have a very significant consequence. It would likely force the first four primary/caucus states into 2011. And due to the holidays, Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina will be pushed into the first half of December. Right now, the best guess is Iowa on December 5, New Hampshire on December 13, and Nevada and South Carolina on December 17. That assumes that Nevada and South Carolina stay true to the 2008 precedent where both states' Republican contests were held concurrently. But that is something that is certainly unclear. South Carolina would conceivably be able to shift to the following Tuesday, December 20, but that would be cutting very close to the holidays.

Again, these are not definitive dates. Rather, they are contingency dates if Florida's Presidential Preference Primary Date Selection Committee moves the presidential primary in the Sunshine state up to the earliest date allowed by the newly-passed law. FHQ, however, cannot stress enough that this is a contingency. Those December dates are the likely earliest dates on which the earliest states will hold their contests, but please take note that we have added dates for the latest possible dates -- those designated by the national parties' rules -- should Florida cooperate with those rules and choose March 6. When Florida selects a date, the options for the earliest four states will become clearer. But that means a long wait until as late as October 1.

[Click to Enlarge]

Reading the Map:

As was the case with the maps from past cycles, the earlier a contest is scheduled in 2012, the darker the color in which the state is shaded. Florida, for instance, is a much deeper shade of blue in January than South Dakota is in June. There are, however, some differences between the earlier maps and the one that appears above.

1. Several caucus states have yet to select a date for the first step of their delegate selection processes in 2012. Until a decision is made by state parties in those states, they will appear in gray on the map.
2. The states where legislation to move the presidential primary is active are two-toned. One color indicates the timing of the primary according to the current law whereas the second color is meant to highlight the most likely month to which the primary could be moved. [With the exception of Texas, the proposed movement is backward.] This is clear in most states, but in others -- Maryland and Tennessee -- where multiple timing options are being considered, the most likely date is used. Here that is defined as a bill -- or date change -- with the most institutional support. In both cases, the majority party leadership is sponsoring one change over another (February to March in Tennessee and February to April in Maryland). That option is given more weight on the map.
3. Kentucky is unique because the legislation there calls for shifting the primary from May to August. As August is not included in the color coding, white designates that potential move with the May shade of blue. Georgia, too, is unique. The state legislature is considering a bill to shift primary date-setting power from the legislature to the secretary of state. The effect is that the Peach state has a dark blue stripe for its current February primary date and a gray stripe to reflect the fact that a change from that based on the bill in question would put the future 2012 primary date in limbo until December 1 at the latest.
4. Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina are shaded on the map according to the latest possible date these states would have if Florida opts not to move their primary into compliance with the national party rules. Iowa Republicans and Nevada Republicans and Democrats have decided to accept the party-designated dates, but FHQ operates under the assumption that both will move to a point ahead of the earliest exempt state should one or more move or maintain a February or earlier date.
5. States that are bisected vertically are states where the state parties have different dates for their caucuses and/or primaries. The left hand section is shaded to reflect the state Democratic Party's scheduling while the right is for the state Republican Party's decision on the timing of its delegate selection event.

Reading the Calendar:

1. Caucus states are italicized while primary states are not. Several caucus states are missing from the list because they have not formalized the date on which their contests will be held in 2012. Colorado appears because the caucuses dates there are set by the state, whereas a state like Alaska has caucuses run by the state parties and as such do not have their dates codified in state law.
2. States that have changed dates appear twice (or more) on the calendar; once by the old date and once by the new date. The old date will be struck through while the new date will be color-coded with the amount of movement (in days) in parentheses. States in green are states that have moved to earlier dates on the calendar and states in red are those that have moved to later dates. Arkansas, for example, has moved its 2012 primary and moved it back 104 days from its 2008 position.
3. The date of any primary or caucus moves that have taken place -- whether through gubernatorial signature or state party move -- also appear in parentheses following the state's/party's new entry on the calendar.
4. States with active legislation have links to those bills included with their entries on the calendar. If there are multiple bills they are divided by chamber and/or numbered accordingly.
5. Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina appear twice. The earlier entry corresponds with the latest possible date these states would have if Florida opts not to move their primary into compliance with the national party rules. The second, later entry for each of the non-exempt states reflects the position the national parties would prefer the earliest states to hold their delegate selection events.

2012 Presidential Primary Calendar

December 2011

Monday, December 5:

Iowa caucuses¹

Tuesday, December 13:

New Hampshire¹

Saturday, December 17:

Nevada caucuses¹

South Carolina¹

A note on the placement of Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina.

January 2012

Tuesday, January 31:

Florida (bills: House 1, 2/Senate) (moved to no date: 5/19/11)

February 2012

Monday, February 6:

Iowa caucuses (moved: 2/8/11) (based on national party rules)

Tuesday, February 7 (Super Tuesday):

Alabama (bills: House 1, 2)

Arkansas

California (bills: Assembly)

Connecticut (bills: House)

Delaware

Georgia (bills: House) (moved to no date: 5/13/11)

Illinois

Minnesota caucuses (+28) (moved: 3/1/11)

Missouri (bills: House 1, 2, 3/Senate)

Montana Republican caucuses

New Jersey (bills: Assembly 1, 2/Senate)

New York

Oklahoma

Tennessee

Utah

Saturday, February 11:

Louisiana (bills: House)

Tuesday, February 14:

Maryland

New Hampshire (based on national party rules)

Virginia

Washington, DC

Saturday, February 18:

Nevada Republican caucuses (-28) (moved: 12/16/10) (based on national party rules)

Nevada Democratic caucuses² (-28) (moved: 2/24/11) (based on national party rules)

Tuesday, February 21:

Hawaii Republican caucuses (+88) (moved: 5/16/09)

Wisconsin

Tuesday, February 28:

Arizona³

Michigan⁴ (bills: House)

South Carolina (based on national party rules)

March 2012

Tuesday, March 6:

Massachusetts⁴ (bills: House)

Ohio (bills: House)

Oklahoma (-28) (bills: House 1, 2, 3/Senate 1, 2) (moved: 5/3/11)

Rhode Island

Tennessee (-28) (bills: House 1, 2, 3/Senate 1, 2, 3) (moved: 5/9/11)

Texas (bills: House/Senate)

Vermont

Virginia (-21) (bills: House 1, 2/Senate) (moved: 3/25/11)

Sunday, March 11:

Maine Democratic caucuses (-28) (moved: 3/27/11)

Tuesday, March 13:

Hawaii Republican caucuses (+67 and -21) (moved: 5/14/11)

Mississippi

Utah Democratic caucuses (-35) (moved: 3/25/11)

Tuesday, March 20:

Colorado caucuses⁵ (bills: House)

Illinois (-42) (bills: Senate) (moved: 3/17/10)

April 2012

Tuesday, April 3:

Kansas (bills: House/Senate -- cancel primary)

Maryland (-49) (bills: House/Senate 1, 2) (moved: 5/10/11)

Washington, DC (-49) (bills: Council) (moved: 4/27/11)

Saturday, April 7:

Hawaii Democratic caucuses (-46) (moved: 3/18/11)

Wyoming Democratic caucuses (-28) (moved: 3/16/11)

Saturday, April 14:

Nebraska Democratic caucuses (-60) (moved: 3/5/11)

Sunday, April 15:

Alaska Democratic caucuses (-70) (moved: 4/4/11)

Washington Democratic caucuses (-64) (moved: 4/30/11)

Tuesday, April 24:

Pennsylvania

May 2012

Saturday, May 5:

Michigan Democratic caucuses (-111) (moved: 4/13/11)

Tuesday, May 8:

Indiana

North Carolina (bills: Senate)

West Virginia

Tuesday, May 15:

Idaho (+7) (bills: House) (moved: 2/23/11)

Nebraska

Oregon (bills: House)

Tuesday, May 22:

Arkansas (-107) (bills: House) (moved: 2/4/09)

Idaho

Kentucky (bills: House) (died: legislature adjourned)

Washington (bills: House 1, 2/Senate -- cancel primary) (canceled: 5/12/11)

June 2012

Tuesday, June 5:

Montana (GOP -121) (moved: 6/18/10)

New Mexico⁶ (bills: Senate) (died: legislature adjourned)

North Dakota Democratic caucuses (-121) (moved: 4/21/11)

South Dakota

¹ New Hampshire law calls for the Granite state to hold a primary on the second Tuesday of March or seven days prior to any other similar election, whichever is earlier. Florida is first now, so New Hampshire would be a week earlier at the latest. Traditionally, Iowa has gone on the Monday a week prior to New Hampshire. For the time being we'll wedge South Carolina in on the Saturday between New Hampshire and Florida, but these are just guesses at the moment. Any rogue states could cause a shift.

² The Nevada Democratic caucuses date is based on both DNC rules and the state party's draft delegate selection plan as of February 24, 2011.

³ In Arizona the governor can use his or her proclamation powers to move the state's primary to a date on which the event would have an impact on the nomination. In 2004 and 2008 the primary was moved to the first Tuesday in February.
⁴ Massachusetts and Michigan are the only states that passed a frontloading bill prior to 2008 that was not permanent. The Bay state reverts to its first Tuesday in March date in 2012 while Michigan will fall back to the fourth Tuesday in February.
⁵ The Colorado Democratic and Republican parties have the option to move their caucuses from the third Tuesday in March to the first Tuesday in February.
⁶ The law in New Mexico allows the parties to decide when to hold their nominating contests. The Democrats have gone in early February in the last two cycles, but the GOP has held steady in June. They have the option of moving however.

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Governor Scott Signs Florida Elections Bill, Creates Presidential Preference Primary Date Selection Committee

Thursday afternoon, Florida Governor Rick Scott signed HB 1355 ushering in some sweeping changes to the state's elections law, but also creating a Presidential Preference Primary Date Selection Committee. The committee will take over the responsibility of setting the date of the presidential primary in the Sunshine state from the state legislature. This provides the state with more flexibility in setting the date outside of the restrictions of the short, early-year legislative session in Florida.

The committee will be comprised of nine members (three each chosen by the governor, Senate President Mike Haridopolos and House Speaker Dean Cannon -- all Republicans) and will have at least three Democratic members. The committee will have until October 1 to select a date (some date between the first Tuesday in January and the first Tuesday in March) for the primary.

[Click to Enlarge]

The move shifts Florida, like Georgia, into the "no date" category on FHQ's 2012 presidential primary calendar map and move Florida off the January 31 line on the calendar itself.

Look back on the progress of the bill and the other Florida primary details by clicking here.

Thanks to Richard Winger at Ballot Access News for passing this news along.

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Florida Senate Passes House Primary Bill

After a spirited debate, the Florida Senate passed the controversial elections bill (HB 1355) that includes a provision to create a bipartisan committee to select a date for the Sunshine state's presidential primary. On a nearly party line vote, the bill passed 25-13 with the 12 person Democratic caucus being joined by one Republican in opposition to the bill. Democrats in the chamber argued against the bill because of its new constraints on the timing of early voting (Republicans argued that it was only superfluous, sparse voting days that were being trimmed.), the stringent new requirements for third party petitioners (Republicans cited the potential for partisan mischief and raised the specter of ACORN in the process.), and one Democrat even attacked the proposed Presidential Preference Primary Date Selection Committee as unnecessary.

Regardless of the arguments, the bill passed and now heads to Governor Rick Scott's desk. Assuming his signature, Florida will now have the flexibility through the new committee to wait out most states and select a primary date that is advantageous to it while also not infringing on the early states' territory.

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Florida Senate Poised to Create Presidential Preference Primary Date Setting Committee

With time running out on the legislative session (Friday, May 6 is the final day.), the Florida Senate moved Thursday on the House omnibus elections bill that would, among other things, create a committee to select a date for the Sunshine state's presidential primary. HB 1355 was first substituted for the Senate version of the bill (SB 2086) and then weathered a slew of Democratic amendments that sought to remove requirements in the bill it viewed as injurious to voters. To Democratic lawmakers the new law would disproportionately affect minority and college aged voters -- primary portions of the Democratic electorate. For FHQ's purposes, however, the main target of interest in this bill is the new committee which will have until October 1 to schedule a date for the presidential primary.

HB 1355 is on the May 5 calendar in the Senate and should see a vote today.

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Presidential Preference Primary Date Selection Committee Bill Passes Florida House

The controversial Florida elections bill that includes a provision to create a Presidential Preference Primary Date Selection Committee passed the state House this afternoon on a party-line vote. HB 1355 passed 79-37 after Democrats in the minority attempted unsuccessfully to add 40 amendments in an effort to derail the legislative process. While the bill would create the aforementioned committee to choose the date on which the Sunshine state's 2012 primary will be held, it also contains a number of items that gave Democrats pause including stricter registration requirements, deadlines and penalties.

A similar bill -- SB 2086 -- is currently being considered in committee by the Senate, but does not contain the committee-creation provision. The Senate, though will have its turn to consider the House-passed version soon enough.

Again, the proposed committee would have ten members selected by the Speaker of the House, President of the Senate and Governor and would be tasked with choosing a date (between January 3 and March 6) for the Florida presidential primary by sometime before October 1 of this year.

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Florida House Committee Passes Amended Bill to Create a Presidential Primary Date-Setting Committee

As expected, an amendment was offered this morning in the Florida House State Affairs Committee to create a Presidential Preference Primary Date Setting Committee. The 10 person group -- staffed with members chosen by the Speaker of the House, President of the Senate and Governor -- would have until October 1 to select a date for the Sunshine state's presidential primary. This provides the state with some timing flexibility by breaking the decision out of the confines of the short period of time in which the Florida legislature is in session.

The amendment was added to HB 1355 by voice vote and the committee substitute was then passed by the State Affairs Committee by a vote of 12-6. That bill is a controversial elections bill that has seen and will see on the floor of the House and in the Senate if it passes resistance by the Democratic minority (via Travis Pillow at The Florida Independent).

Among other things, the bill would require people who change their addresses on election day to vote by provisional ballot and impose new regulations on groups that register voters. It would also dampen the prospects of citizen-sponsored ballot initiatives, shortening the time signatures are valid from four years to two.

Republican support should push it and the primary committee-creating committee provision through the legislature and to Republican Governor Rick Scott's desk.

The Florida legislature is set to adjourn on May 6.

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Florida Legislature to Create Outside Committee with Primary Date-Setting Authority

Rachel Weiner at The Fix is reporting that Florida Speaker of the House Dean Cannon indicated in a conference call today that he will introduce legislation tomorrow to create a commission charged both with solving the Sunshine state's presidential primary dispute with national and early primary/caucus state parties and setting a date for the primary.

Florida’s legislative session ends May 6. Cannon said the legislation, which he will put forward tomorrow, will add “flexibility” to the process. This way, he said, Florida Republicans can work with other states on its calendar without forcing legislators to attend a special summer session.

The bipartisan "presidential preference primary date selection committee" would be asked to make a decision by October on a primary date within the window of the first Tuesday in January and the first Tuesday in March. The panel would be made up of ten appointees — three picked by the House Speaker, three by the Senate President and three by governor, along with the secretary of state as a non-voting chair.

Where the state lawmakers are not backing down is their conviction that Florida should be early. “We belong early in that conversation, because the path to the White House has to go through Florida,” Cannon said.

A more thorough analysis will have to wait until the legislation is [hopefully] accessible tomorrow after it is filed. But in the meantime, this proposal accomplishes one main objective. It buys Florida some more time. With the end of the legislative session approaching in less than a month, it was becoming less and less likely that the state would be able to deal with this issue in time. The proposed set up sounds a lot like the system used to govern the date-setting of Washington state's presidential primary. The law in the Evergreen state sets the primary -- one that has in the past only been utilized by Republicans as a means of allocating delegates -- for the fourth Tuesday in May. However, if the state parties desire an alternate date the third provision in the law is triggered:

(3) If an alternative date is proposed under subsection (1) or (2) of this section, a committee consisting of the chair and the vice chair of the state committee of each major political party, the secretary of state, the majority leader and minority leader of the senate, and the speaker and the minority leader of the house of representatives shall meet and, if affirmed by a two-thirds vote of the members of the committee, the date of the primary shall be changed. The committee shall meet and decide on the proposed alternate date not later than the first day of October of the year before the year in which a presidential nominee is selected. The secretary of state shall convene and preside over the meeting of the committee. A committee member other than a legislator may appoint, in writing, a designee to serve on his or her behalf. A legislator who is a member of the committee may appoint, in writing, another legislator to serve on his or her behalf.

The Washington committee provides a much more bipartisan context than the Presidential Preference Primary Date Selection Committee proposed in Florida. Democrats will be left on the outside looking in as the speaker, president of the Senate and governor are all Republicans and are likely to select three Republicans each. The non-voting secretary of state is a gubernatorial appointee as well. Given the time frame cited for the primary (last first Tuesday in January and the first Tuesday in March), the date will not adhere to Democratic National Committee rules on timing anyway.

The other looming question coming out of this is whether the committee is being created on a permanent basis or is merely temporary -- to deal only with 2012. If it is the former, the state legislature is being asked to cede its power to set the date of the presidential primary to another entity -- something Georgia is attempting to do (though in the hands of the secretary of state). As Cannon alluded to, though, such a move, if permanent, would give Florida flexibility now and later to deal with setting the date of the primary in a more advantageous position.

For those answers, we will have to wait until the bill is made public, though.

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UPDATE: The partisan make up of the committee has been clarified. Paul Flemming at the Pensacola News Journal has added that none of the three (speaker, president, governor) can select any more than two people from one party. That would assure a 6-3 advantage for Republicans at the worst. But Democrats would have some voice in the matter.

William March at The Tampa Tribune also seems to indicate in closing his write up on the conference call that the amendment offered tomorrow would make a permanent change to make Florida more like Iowa and New Hampshire.

UPDATE II: An amendment is supposed to be added in the House State Affairs Committee by its chairman, Rep. Seth McKeel (R-63rd, Lakeland) tomorrow. A look at the meeting notice for the committee on April 14 makes it appear as if that amendment will be added to HB 1355, an elections bill that eliminates a Presidential Candidate Selection Committee.

NOTE: Well, I've misread this. The window for the committee is the first Tuesday in January to the first Tuesday in March. In other words, the Presidential Preference Primary Date Selection Committee could technically move Florida's primary up. I'm sure that will go over well if it comes to pass.

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