New State Polls (11/6/16)
| |||||||||
State
|
Poll
|
Date
|
Margin of Error
|
Sample
|
Clinton
|
Trump
|
Undecided
|
Poll Margin
|
FHQ Margin
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Florida
|
11/2-11/4
|
+/-3.6%
|
1188 likely voters
|
45
|
45
|
2
|
+/-0
|
+2.07
| |
Michigan
|
11/3
|
+/-3.1%
|
1007 likely voters
|
46
|
41
|
3
|
+5
|
+6.80
| |
New Mexico
|
11/1-11/3
|
+/-4.4%
|
504 likely voters
|
45
|
40
|
2
|
+5
|
+6.95
| |
New York
|
11/3-11/4
|
+/-4.5%
|
617 likely voters
|
51
|
34
|
7
|
+17
|
+19.78
| |
Ohio
|
11/2-11/4
|
+/-4.1%
|
1189 likely voters
|
45
|
46
|
2
|
+1
|
--
| |
Ohio
|
10/27-11/5
|
+/-2.9%
|
1159 likely voters
|
48
|
47
|
0
|
+1
|
+0.24
| |
--
Changes (11/6/16)
Only 2 more days.
A few Sunday polls trickled in, but did little to change the overall outlook through the lens of the Electoral College. All of the six surveys from five states confirmed what was known about each before the poll numbers were released.
- Florida is close. It always is, but seems to favor Clinton a shade more than the Sunshine state did Obama four years ago. That does not make it a safe state for the former Secretary of State, but she is a bit more insulated there than Obama was.
- Michigan has closed some, but the margin there remains in a range just above the Lean/Toss Up line on the Clinton side of the partisan line.
- New Mexico looks similar to Michigan now that former Governor Gary Johnson's support has flagged in the Land of Enchantment. This is one where Clinton lags Obama more than Trump trails Romney's performance from 2012. But it still favors Clinton.
- New York is still blue. Still no change.
- There is some volatility in this race driving uncertainty heading into election day. But as of now through the FHQ graduated weighted averages, Ohio is shaping up as the only state that may drift over the partisan line between now and Tuesday. It is the most likely to do so in any event. And the two newly released polls in the Buckeye state did nothing to change that picture.
--
The Electoral College Spectrum1
| ||||
MD-102
(13)
|
RI-4
(162)
|
NH-4
(263)
|
TX-38
(161)
|
TN-11
(61)
|
HI-4
(17)
|
NJ-14
(176)
|
CO-94
(272 | 275)
|
SC-9
(123)
|
AR-6
(50)
|
VT-3
(20)
|
OR-7
(183)
|
FL-29
(301 | 266) |
MO-10
(114)
|
ND-3
(44)
|
MA-11
(31)
|
NM-5
(188)
|
NC-15
(316 | 237) |
UT-6
(104)
|
NE-53
(41)
|
CA-55
(86)
|
MN-10
(198)
|
NV-6
(322 | 222)
|
IN-11
(98)
|
KY-8
(36)
|
NY-29
(115)
|
MI-16
(214)
|
OH-18
(340 | 216)
|
MS-6
(87)
|
AL-9
(28)
|
IL-20+13
(136)
|
ME-23
(216)
|
IA-6
(198)
|
SD-3
(81)
|
ID-4
(19)
|
DE-3
(139)
|
WI-10
(226)
|
AZ-11
(192)
|
KS-6
(78)
|
WV-5
(15)
|
WA-12
(151)
|
VA-13
(239)
|
GA-16+13
(181)
|
LA-8
(72)
|
OK-7
(10)
|
CT-7
(158)
|
PA-20
(259)
|
AK-3
(164)
|
MT-3
(64)
|
WY-3
(3)
|
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.
2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Colorado (all Clinton's toss up states plus Colorado), he would have 275 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Clinton's number is on the left and Trumps's is on the right in bold italics. To keep the figure to 50 cells, Washington, DC and its three electoral votes are included in the beginning total on the Democratic side of the spectrum. The District has historically been the most Democratic state in the Electoral College. 3 Maine and Nebraska allocate electoral college votes to candidates in a more proportional manner. The statewide winner receives the two electoral votes apportioned to the state based on the two US Senate seats each state has. Additionally, the winner within a congressional district is awarded one electoral vote. Given current polling, all five Nebraska electoral votes would be allocated to Trump. In Maine, a split seems more likely. Trump leads in Maine's second congressional district while Clinton is ahead statewide and in the first district. She would receive three of the four Maine electoral votes and Trump the remaining electoral vote. Those congressional district votes are added approximately where they would fall in the Spectrum above. 4 Colorado is the state where Clinton crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. Currently, Colorado is in the Toss Up Clinton category. | ||||
NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Clinton and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.
The Watch List1
| |||
State
|
Switch
| ||
|---|---|---|---|
Alaska
|
from Lean Trump
|
to Toss Up Trump
| |
Colorado
|
from Toss Up Clinton
|
to Lean Clinton
| |
Indiana
|
from Lean Trump
|
to Strong Trump
| |
Mississippi
|
from Strong Trump
|
to Lean Trump
| |
New Hampshire
|
from Toss Up Clinton
|
to Lean Clinton
| |
Ohio
|
from Toss Up Clinton
|
to Toss Up Trump
| |
Oregon
|
from Lean Clinton
|
to Strong Clinton
| |
Pennsylvania
|
from Lean Clinton
|
to Toss Up Clinton
| |
Utah
|
from Lean Trump
|
to Strong Trump
| |
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.
| |||
Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (11/5/16)
The Electoral College Map (11/4/16)
The Electoral College Map (11/3/16)
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