Showing posts with label ME CD2. Show all posts
Showing posts with label ME CD2. Show all posts

Wednesday, October 28, 2020

The Electoral College Map (10/28/20)

Update for October 28.


Wednesday was another one of those days full of poll releases from across the board. In total, there were data from 22 new surveys in 12 different states added to the FHQ polling dataset for 2020. And while all six categories were represented, it was the middle column in the Electoral College Spectrum below -- the one with the most competitive states -- that was most heavily polled in this batch. Nevada was the only blue state toss up with no new survey data on the day and Iowa and Ohio were the only ones on the Trump side of the partisan line without any new polls. That means that the most frequently surveyed states got another infusion of data, but the end result was only minor movement. Six of the states shifted in Trump's direction and another five saw their margins move toward Biden. North Carolina held steady from a day ago. 

But again, the bottom line is that with six days left in the presidential campaign before voting concludes, Biden maintained the lead in the electoral vote tally that he has held for the last week.

On to the polls... 


Polling Quick Hits:
Arizona
(Biden 48, Trump 44 via Gravis Marketing | Biden 49, Trump 43 via Justice Collaborative Institute | Biden 50, Trump 45 via Univision | Biden 52, Trump 45 via Patinkin Research Strategies)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +3.04] 
Arizona added the most new polls on the day, and importantly, the six new polls, including two backlogged surveys from Patinkin Research, nudged the average margin there back above Biden +3. On the whole, however, this group of surveys was fairly consistent with the established 48-45 lead the former vice president currently holds in the Grand Canyon state. The first Gravis poll of Arizona since September had both candidates losing support. The 50-48 Biden advantage then doubled but brought the series in line with the current average in the state. Both the Univision and JCI surveys hit the target on one candidate's average share of support, but missed the mark on the other. In the JCI poll, Biden's share was on par with his average while Trump lagged behind his. The opposite was true of the Univision survey. There, the Trump share in the survey matched his average share at FHQ while it ended up having Biden out in front of his average share. Finally, the Patinkin update to an early October survey that found the Democratic nominee up 50-46 saw that margin increase even further, pushing Biden beyond 50 percent. The former vice president has hit that mark less frequently in Arizona than in, say, the blue wall states, but he has hit or exceeded the majority mark 19 times in the 98 polls conduced in Arizona in 2020. And roughly a third of those have come in October. 


Arkansas
(Trump 65, Biden 32)
[Current FHQ margin: Trump +26.14] 
A rare new poll of the Natural state was conducted by the University of Arkansas and had the president doubling up Biden. This wide gap in this survey is mostly consistent with the 61-35 average margin Trump currently maintains at FHQ. But that average makes Arkansas one of those states that hardly looks different from the 2016 presidential results. Biden's average share is a little more than a point ahead of Clinton finish there and Trump is actually slightly ahead of where he ended up in Arkansas four years ago.


Florida
(Biden 49, Trump 46)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +3.12] 
Univision's first poll of the Sunshine state in calendar 2020 does not stray far from the established 49-45 (rounded) average at FHQ. And Florida is one of those states with a below average swing relative to 2016. Biden has only tacked on a point and a half on to Clinton's showing there, and Trump is running only about three and a half points behind his pace. In total that is still a shift in the Democrats' direction the 2016 election to 2020 polling, but it is one that falls short of the nearly seven point average swing across the country. 


Georgia
(Biden 50, Trump 48)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +0.28] 
North of the Sunshine state in Georgia, Monmouth was back in the field with another survey gauging opinions on preferences in the presidential race. And there has been a fairly substantial swing in the low turnout model that FHQ has been imputing into the dataset since the university pollster found Trump ahead 50-45 last month. But that was a bit of an outlier. Trump has not been back up as high as 50 percent in any Peach state poll since the September Monmouth survey. Moreover, he had not hit the majority mark in a poll until that September survey since July.  But this month, it is Biden and not the president who is at 50 percent. For comparison, since that September Monmouth survey, the former vice president has surpassed the majority barrier seven times. [NOTE: Using the high turnout model data -- a 50-46 Biden advantage -- would have increased the average FHQ margin to Biden +0.32.]


Maine
(Biden 51, Trump 38)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +13.57] 

Maine CD1
(Biden 56, Trump 34)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +23.27] 

Maine CD2
(Biden 46, Trump 42)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +1.75] 
There is far less suspense statewide in Maine or in ME CD1 and the update from Colby College confirms that. The numbers both statewide and in the southern, more urban district moved toward Biden since the last poll in September. But the margins shifted a sliver toward Trump because they both came in under the established average margins in both jurisdictions. And while the more competitive ME CD2 was largely unchanged in the time since the last Colby survey -- Trump dropped a point -- the average margin inched upward and toward Biden nearly syncing it with the average margin in North Carolina.


Michigan
(Biden 49, Trump 41 via Siena/NYT Upshot | Biden 49, Trump 42 via Glengariff Group | Biden 51, Trump 44 via ABC/WaPo)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +7.17] 
It was another day with not only multiple polls of Michigan but with all them finding the former vice president hovering around 50 percent as he has for weeks here at FHQ and the president stuck in the low to mid-40s. The Siena survey was an update to a poll of the Great Lakes state earlier this month and represented no real change. A 48-40 Biden lead then morphed into a 49-41 advantage now. The margin may have closed some in the update the last Glengariff poll earlier in October, but it also had Biden's support pushing closer to 50 percent, a mark the Democratic nominee has been closing in on in the FHQ averages for a while now. The first-time ABC/WaPo survey basically fell in line with the current 50-43 (rounded) margin Biden leads the president by at FHQ. None of the trio find Trump significantly closing the gap in a state he flipped in 2016 but does not absolutely have to defend in 2020. 


North Carolina
(Biden 49, Trump 46 via Gravis Marketing | Biden 47, Trump 46 via Harper Polling)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +1.80] 
In the Tar Heel state, a pair of new surveys continued giving fodder to the FHQ mantra for the race there: It is close but consistently tipped in Biden's favor. The Gravis poll is the firm's first in the state since June and although both candidates have increased their support from Biden's 46-43 lead at the time, the margin has remained exactly the same. Harper Polling's surveys for Civitas in North Carolina have been the model of consistency since summer. It has been a one point race in one direction or another since the firm's August poll. And it was Biden's turn to lead in October after Trump had his turn last month. Neither poll is far off of the 48-46 (rounded) FHQ average in the Old North state.


Pennsylvania
(Biden 50, Trump 45)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +5.38] 
Like the Arizona and Florida polls, this was the first Univision survey of Pennsylvania as well. And even as the margin falls short of the five plus point FHQ advantage the former vice president has in the Keystone state, it is consistent with the 50-44 (rounded) lead there. And this was another poll with Biden at or above 50 percent in the commonwealth. Looking at the swing in Pennsylvania from 2016 to now, it appears to be a lot like Florida. Biden here is ahead of Clinton by a little more than a point and a half and Trump is lagging behind his 2016 performance by more than three and a half points. Together, that shift is slightly below the nearly seven point average swing across all states. 


South Carolina
(Trump 50, Biden 44 via Data for Progress | Trump 52, Biden 44 via East Carolina University)
[Current FHQ margin: Trump +6.76] -
If it is a South Carolina poll this week, then it must have Trump in the low 50s and Biden trailing in the mid-40s. That has been the trend so far this week anyway and both the Data for Progress and ECU polls fit that bill. And neither survey has changed that much since either was last in the field in the Palmetto state. In the two weeks since Data for Progress conducted a South Carolina poll Trump's 52-43 lead has shrunk by a couple of points. ECU's last survey was the first in the state way back at the beginning of February, and that registered voters sample then also had Trump at 52 percent. Biden saw more growth since then in the transition from registered to likely voters, but only enough to pull him in line with his average level of support as measured by FHQ. 


Texas
(Trump 49, Biden 46)
[Current FHQ margin: Trump +1.53] 
The update to the last Univision poll in Texas resembles the timeline in the Gravis surveys of North Carolina discussed above. A February poll of registered Lone Star state voters had Trump out to a 46-43 lead. But time and the switch to likely voters for the latest poll are more consistent with the current 48-46 (rounded) advantage the president holds in Texas. As FHQ has mentioned before, Texas continues to be the North Carolina of the Trump side of the partisan line. The two states are mirror images of each other with Trump holding the same 48-46 lead that Biden has in North Carolina. That consistency in both should be noted heading down the stretch of this race. 


Virginia
(Biden 53, Trump 41)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +11.83] 
No other poll has found the race for the 13 electoral votes in the Old Dominion as close as the September Christopher Newport survey did. So, that the university pollster's latest Virginia poll has replaced that 48-43 Biden lead from then with a margin (not to mention candidate shares) to match those at FHQ is noteworthy. Virginia just is not in 2020 the swing state that it was in 2008 or 2012 (or even 2016 for that matter).


Wisconsin
(Biden 48, Trump 43 via Marquette Law School | Biden 57, Trump 40 via ABC/WaPo )
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +6.46] 
Finally, the two new polls in the Badger state tell differing tales. Neither is wholly inconsistent with the recent data on the Trump side of the equation although the ABC/WaPo finding is on the low end of the president's range. But the real difference is on the Biden side. The former vice president was already above 50 percent in the last ABC/WaPo survey of Wisconsin last month, but for Biden to hit 57 percent this month is for him to hit his peak in polling of the state this year. It also nudges him a little closer to a 50 percent average share at FHQ. In fact, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin have all been huddled up against but under that average threshold for a while with Michigan closest to crossing first. But on the weight of this new ABC/WaPo poll, Biden's average share in Wisconsin is now closer to 50 percent than in Michigan. The Marquette poll continues to find the margin in the Badger state on the low side compared to other polling. But it also may have been more consistent across the series. This latest poll is barely different from the 47-42 lead Biden held in the last Marquette poll earlier this month. 



NOTE: 


The Electoral College Spectrum1
DC-3
VT-3
(6)2
IL-20
(162)
WI-10
(253)
AK-3
(125)
TN-11
(60)
MA-11
(17)
OR-7
(169)
PA-203
(273 | 285)
MO-10
(122)
KY-8
(49)
MD-10
(27)
NJ-14
(183)
NV-6
(279 | 265)
SC -9
(112)
SD-3
(41)
HI-4
(31)
ME-2
(185)
FL-29
(308 | 259)
MT-3
NE CD1-1
(103)
AL-9
(38)
NY-29
(60)
CO-9
(194)
AZ-11
(319 | 230)
KS-6
(99)
ID-4
(29)
CA-55
(115)
VA-13
(207)
NC-15
ME CD2-1
(335 | 219)
NE-2
(93)
AR-6
(25)
DE-3
(118)
NH-4
(211)
GA-16
(351 | 203)
IN-11
(91)
OK-7
(19)
WA-12
(130)
NM-5
(216)
IA-6
(187)
UT-6
(80)
ND-3
(12)
ME CD1-1
CT-7
(138)
MN-10
(226)
OH-18
(181)
MS-6
(74)
WV-5
(9)
RI-4
(142)
NE CD2-1
MI-16
(243)
TX-38
(163)
LA-8
(68)
WY-3
NE CD3-1
(4)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.

2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Pennsylvania (Biden's toss up states plus the Pennsylvania), he would have 285 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Biden's number is on the left and Trump's is on the right in bold italics.

3 Pennsylvania
 is the state where Biden crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election, the tipping point state. The tipping point cell is shaded in yellow to denote that and the font color is adjusted to attempt to reflect the category in which the state is.

Things really have settled in at FHQ and time is running out for anything to significantly change between now and election day next Tuesday. That is not to say that nothing can or will happen to disrupt this race but that time and folks who have not voted are both dwindling. FHQ mentions that as preface to saying on another day that little has changed around here. The map and underlying electoral vote tally are where they have been for a week, the order of states depicted in the Electoral College Spectrum is unchanged from a day ago and the same seven states that populated the Watch List yesterday are there again today. That is just the way it is, but tomorrow may bring some new data that will alter that. 

6 days to go.


Where things stood at FHQ on October 28 (or close to it) in...
2016
2012
2008


--
NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Biden and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.

The Watch List1
State
Potential Switch
Georgia
from Toss Up Biden
to Toss Up Trump
Iowa
from Toss Up Trump
to Toss Up Biden
Kansas
from Lean Trump
to Strong Trump
Nevada
from Toss Up Biden
to Lean Biden
New Hampshire
from Strong Biden
to Lean Biden
New Mexico
from Strong Biden
to Lean Biden
Ohio
from Toss Up Trump
to Toss Up Biden
Pennsylvania
from Lean Biden
to Toss Up Biden
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

--
Methodological Note: In past years, FHQ has tried some different ways of dealing with states with no polls or just one poll in the early rounds of these projections. It does help that the least polled states are often the least competitive. The only shortcoming is that those states may be a little off in the order in the Spectrum. In earlier cycles, a simple average of the state's three previous cycles has been used. But in 2016, FHQ strayed from that and constructed an average swing from 2012 to 2016 that was applied to states. That method, however, did little to prevent anomalies like the Kansas poll that had Clinton ahead from biasing the averages. In 2016, the early average swing in the aggregate was  too small to make much difference anyway. For 2020, FHQ has utilized an average swing among states that were around a little polled state in the rank ordering on election day in 2016. If there is just one poll in Delaware in 2020, for example, then maybe it is reasonable to account for what the comparatively greater amount of polling tells us about the changes in Connecticut, New Jersey and New Mexico. Or perhaps the polling in Iowa, Mississippi and South Carolina so far tells us a bit about what may be happening in Alaska where no public polling has been released. That will hopefully work a bit better than the overall average that may end up a bit more muted.


--
Related posts:




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Thursday, October 15, 2020

The Electoral College Map (10/15/20)

Update for October 15.


Thursday was another day with a ton of new polling data. There were 22 new surveys from 13 states (and the two congressional districts in Maine) in total. But for all the new numbers, there just were not that many changes to go along with them. It is not that this race is not changing. It is. But it is changing with some measure of subtlety. At this point, the battleground and target states are saturated with polls and despite the fact that older polls are discounted in the FHQ formula, that over-saturation of surveys means that it is difficult to move the needle in any marked way. 

It takes a steady stream of surveys with results noticeably different the average margin (or shares of support) to affect things. Take North Carolina and Pennsylvania as examples. The margin in the Tar Heel state last month was tracking down toward Biden +1.25 but has since reversed course and has today surpassed Biden +1.75. And that is due in part to the recent rush of polls out of North Carolina, many of which have the former vice president ahead by four to five points. Those changes have happened fairly rapidly, but FHQ by design is slow to react (and will likely continue to be slow in changing should any new data continue to reflect the recent reality in North Carolina polling). 

Pennsylvania has followed a similar trajectory, but the changes there have taken place more gradually. Once threatening to jump the Lean/Toss Up line into Toss Up Biden territory, a similar but more spaced out group of polls have nudged the margin in the Keystone state back up to around Biden +5.5 with some signs of plateauing there. 

Other sites may have both of these states a bit further into Biden's column than here at FHQ, but those models are designed to be a bit more responsive to changing polling data. The formula at FHQ is put together a bit differently and the numbers reflect that. There is some general skepticism built in here that may admittedly miss a late break ahead of election day, but operates with the assumption that things ultimately regress to the mean. 

In any event, despite all of the methodological differences, the order of states here is still fairly consistent with what it is at other sites and that is especially true among the battleground and target states. 

But enough of all that. On to the polls... 


Polling Quick Hits:
Arizona
(Biden 49, Trump 47 via Ipsos | Biden 49, Trump 47 via Monmouth | Biden 49, Trump 45 via OH Predictive)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +3.10]
Two of the three new polls showed little to no difference over the previous surveys in the series. The latest from Ipsos in the Grand Canyon state continued to give Biden a two point cushion (although both candidate gained a point since the last poll) and the former vice president had the exact 49-47 lead in the Monmouth poll which broke a 47-47 tie (in the low turnout model) in the September poll. But where there was some significant ostensible narrowing was in the OH Predictive survey. There the Democratic nominee's ten point lead was more than halved. And although that shift will grab the attention, that last poll serves as an outlier among the other surveys in Arizona at the time. This is more regressing to the mean more than it is actual tightening in this race. Biden is consistent across all three poll -- a little above his FHQ average share of support -- and the president is more consistent in the OH Predictive poll than in the other two. But none are far off and all are consistent with where the battle for Arizona's 11 electoral votes has been: slightly tilted in Biden's direction. 


Colorado
(Biden 54, Trump 42 via Civiqs | Biden 54, Trump 39 via Keating Research)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +12.96]
Consistency is also the name of the game in Colorado. Sure, the Centennial state has been surveyed far fewer times than Arizona, but both of these polls point toward a similar conclusion. Keating was last in the field in the state in May and the picture is hardly different now. Biden is still in the mid-50s and Trump in the upper 30s. And the Civiqs survey -- its first in Colorado in calendar 2020 -- does not stray too far from that bottom line. Again, every time a new Colorado survey is released, it is worth pointing out just how foreign such a wide margin is even relative to 2016 (much less any of the other cycles this century). It is a safe state for Democrats this cycle and has been throughout.


Florida
(Biden 50, Trump 47 via Ipsos | Biden 47, Trump 40 via Clearview Research)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +3.37]
Today was another day with a couple of new polls out of the Sunshine state; the third day in a row. FHQ will focus on the Ipsos poll since this was the first Clearview survey of calendar 2020 and had a wider than average margin while it left a large undecided number sitting out there (9 percent) unprompted. In the Ipsos series, however, there were some subtle changes like the Arizona poll from the firm above. Biden tacked on an additional point while Trump gained two of his own. That marginally narrowed the race through the Ipsos lens but brought the latest survey more in line with the graduated weighted average margin in the Sunshine state at FHQ. And the margin has continued to sort of plateau in the three to four point range. There has been some oscillation, but every move toward contraction is met with data that pushes the candidates further apart.


Georgia
(Biden 46, Trump 46)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +0.03] 
Even with yesterday's outlier in the rearview and a new survey from Data for Progress showing the major party candidates knotted at 46, things stayed about where they were a day ago. The Peach state is basically tied -- and has been -- but currently remains tipped in the former vice president's direction by the slimmest of margins. Obviously, a tied poll will do little to change that. And this one look exactly like the last DfP poll in Georgia in mid-September: tied at 46.


Iowa
(Trump 48, Biden 47)
[Current FHQ margin: Trump +1.27]
Data for Progress was also back in the field for the first time since September in Iowa. In this instance, however, there was some change on the margins. Trump inched up a point and Biden added another two to bring him to within one of the president. That change also pulled the DfP series in line with the FHQ average margin in the Hawkeye state. The candidates' shares are also now roughly in line with their FHQ averages as well. Iowa is close in the polls on average, but for every one Biden lead there are probably two or three for Trump and that is what continues to keep the president narrowly ahead in the state. 


Maine
(Biden 50, Trump 40)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +13.60]

Maine CD1
(Biden 54, Trump 37)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +23.41]

Maine CD2
(Biden 47, Trump 43)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +1.51]
While the statewide numbers and those in the first congressional district understate Biden's advantage in each, FHQ will once again focus on the data from the second district in this new Pan Atlantic Research survey of the Pine Tree state. This is the first public poll that the firm has conducted in Maine, so there is no natural comparison. But after the latest Critical Insights survey found Trump up eight in the second, Biden's +4 in this survey serves as a bit of a counter. Yet, the race for that single electoral vote in the more rural northern district in Maine remains the jurisdiction closest to the partisan line on the Biden side, but it pushed the margin a little closer to North Carolina's. On the whole, this Pan Atlantic survey is on par with both candidates' shares of support. It find both candidates right in the hearts of their ranges in the second in any event. 


Michigan
(Biden 48, Trump 42)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +7.19]
Thursday was another day with another Michigan poll with Biden ahead in the six to nine point range. The latest (although there is one from Civiqs discussed as part of a wave below) was from RMG Research. And those polls are not doing much to change the outlook in the Great Lakes state. That is particularly true of this survey that falls roughly in line with both candidates' average shares of support at FHQ. One place that it does break from some recent polling in the state is that it finds Biden below 50 percent and at the bottom of his recent range of results there. Still, the status quo was maintained in this one. 


North Carolina
(Biden 51, Trump 46)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +1.79]
FHQ mentioned at the outset today that those polls with Biden four to five points are fueling a push in the margin back in his favor. The Civiqs update in the Tar Heel state added another datapoint to that. But this is an update to a (now) series of polls that found Biden ahead by three back in May among a sample of registered voters in North Carolina. The transition to likely voters now (and time since May) has shifted things in the former vice president's direction. Trump held steady at 46 percent, but Biden jumped up above 50 percent. That 46 percent is in line with Trump's current average level of support in the state, but Biden's 51 percent is out in front of his while being consistent with a marginal rising tide of support for him. There are a few more 47-50s popping up for Biden than the 45-47 range that was the core of the Democratic nominees polling there.


Pennsylvania
(Biden 46, Trump 43)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +5.49]
Yesterday Trafalgar charted out a battle in the Keystone state that was within two points and today it is  Insider Advantage finding Biden up just three. Both have Trump hovering around his average share of support but Biden well below his. Both also have a fairly significant share of respondents that fall into the undecided or other category. It has been those types of polls -- those with an undecided share plus other collectively approaching 10 points -- that have tended to be closer not just in the commonwealth but in other states, both battleground and otherwise, as well. 


South Carolina
(Trump 49, Biden 41 via Siena/NYT Upshot | Trump 52, Biden 43 via Data for Progress)
[Current FHQ margin: Trump +6.75]
While the summer saw a host of surveys in the Palmetto state find the race for the state's nine electoral votes in the mid-single digits, the polling has taken a turn in October. Recently polling in South Carolina though sporadic still has begun to show the president out to leads approaching ten points. That includes both surveys released today. The Siena poll is like a lot from the college pollster. It leaves undecideds unprompted which typically means the candidates fall short of their established average shares. That is true in this case. And while the Siena poll lacks a true point of comparison, the Data for Progress survey does not. And that series has shown some real movement since the September poll. Biden held steady at 43 percent, but Trump consolidated support with his share rising by five points as the undecided respondents fell by an equivalent five points. Now, that 52-43 lead for the president helps to stretch the average margin out there but it still has Trump lagging a few points behind his 2016 showing while remaining above 50 percent. Biden may have improved over Clinton's pace from four years ago, then, but that is all for nought given where the president is. Again, South Carolina on the Trump side of the partisan line looks a lot like those Lean Biden states on the other side. 


Virginia
(Biden 55, Trump 42 via Civiqs | Biden 53, Trump 38 via Roanoke College)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +12.30]
Like Colorado above, the polling in Virginia does not look like it has in some past cycles during the 21st century. The Old Dominion is not nearly as competitive as it has been and the polling has continually painted that picture in 2020. Biden is comfortably above 50 percent in the averages in the commonwealth at FHQ and neither of today's two polls diverge from that. The Roanoke polls have consistently fallen in that category in three polls since May. And even though the college pollster has had Biden in the low 50s and now right on his average share of support, they have also repeatedly found Trump in the upper 30s below his average share of support. Regardless, like Colorado, Virginia is seemingly comfortably in Biden's column despite some recent assertions from the Trump campaign.


Wisconsin
(Biden 47, Trump 45)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +6.30]
Another Trafalgar Group poll -- this one from Wisconsin -- does not suffer as acutely from the same drawback discussed above in the Pennsylvania discussion. In this instance, the combined undecided/other share is not as large, but the margin is much closer than some other recent public opinion work in the Badger state. It does, however, find Biden on the low end of his range of recent results as Trump is toward the higher end of his. And one could focus on those issues or point toward the fact that in the Trafalgar series in Wisconsin, little has changed since the firm last conducted a poll there in late September. Trump gained a point and that is it. This is yet another story of consistency.


Civiqs (October Rust Belt Rising wave)

Ohio: Trump +3 (Biden +2, Trump +2 since September round)) [Current FHQ margin: Trump +0.59]
Pennsylvania: Biden +7 (Biden +/-0, Trump +/-0)
Wisconsin: Biden +8 (Biden +2, Trump +1)
Michigan: Biden +9 (Biden -1, Trump +1)

Not to give the last Rust Belt series of polls from Civiqs short shrift, but there was not much movement for either candidate among these four Great Lakes states since September. More importantly, perhaps, the order of the states matches the rank order depicted on the Spectrum below. And while the margin in Ohio may be a bit more in Trump's favor than the average margin here at FHQ, the margins in the other three states are maybe tilted a bit more in the other direction. But they do fall in line with where much of recent polling has been in those three blue wall states that Trump flipped in 2016. 


NOTE: A description of the methodology behind the graduated weighted average of 2020 state-level polling that FHQ uses for these projections can be found here.


The Electoral College Spectrum1
DC-3
VT-3
(6)2
IL-20
(162)
WI-10
(253)
MO-10
(125)
TN-11
(60)
MA-11
(17)
OR-7
(169)
PA-203
(273 | 285)
AK-3
(115)
KY-8
(49)
MD-10
(27)
NJ-14
(183)
NV-6
(279 | 265)
SC -9
(112)
AL-9
(41)
CA-55
(82)
ME-2
(185)
FL-29
(308 | 259)
KS-6
(103)
SD-3
(32)
NY-29
(111)
CO-9
(194)
AZ-11
(319 | 230)
NE CD1-1
MT-3
(97)
ID-4
(29)
HI-4
(115)
VA-13
(207)
NC-15
ME CD2-1
(335 | 219)
NE-2
(93)
AR-6
(25)
DE-3
(118)
NH-4
(211)
GA-16
(351 | 203)
IN-11
(91)
OK-7
(19)
WA-12
(130)
NM-5
(216)
OH-18
(187)
UT-6
(80)
ND-3
(12)
ME CD1-1
CT-7
(138)
MN-10
(226)
IA-6
(169)
MS-6
(74)
WV-5
(9)
RI-4
(142)
NE CD2-1
MI-16
(243)
TX-38
(163)
LA-8
(68)
WY-3
NE CD3-1
(4)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.

2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Pennsylvania (Biden's toss up states plus the Pennsylvania), he would have 285 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Biden's number is on the left and Trump's is on the right in bold italics.

3 Pennsylvania
 is the state where Biden crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election, the tipping point state. The tipping point cell is shaded in yellow to denote that and the font color is adjusted to attempt to reflect the category in which the state is.

Whereas all that polling a day ago yielded one significant change -- Georgia jumping the partisan line into Biden territory -- today's group held the line. Only South Carolina budged, shifting two cells deeper into the Lean Trump group of states and further away from the Lean/Toss Up line to which it had recently been drawn. No longer does South Carolina seem to be inching toward the Watch List (which remains unchanged from yesterday). But the Palmetto state is in a tightly knit group with Alaska and Missouri. As all of those states have dipped into or flirted with the Toss Up category in 2020, FHQ has said that those three were the states where Biden could tack on some additional electoral votes if the bottom truly dropped out on President Trump. That bottom may or may not drop out between now and election day, but Biden's prospects of adding any electoral votes from this trio of states seems dim. The gap between the last Toss Up Trump state (Texas) and the first Lean Trump state (now Missouri) is nearly five points. That is less a gap and more a chasm. If the bottom drops out on Trump, Biden's advances are likely to end at Texas. But given how consistently Iowa, Ohio and Texas have been tilted in Trump's direction those may even be tough tasks for the Biden campaign. Within range, but difficult flips. 

19 days to go.


Where things stood at FHQ on October 15 (or close to it) in...
2016
2012
2008


--
NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Biden and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.

The Watch List1
State
Potential Switch
Georgia
from Toss Up Biden
to Toss Up Trump
New Hampshire
from Strong Biden
to Lean Biden
New Mexico
from Strong Biden
to Lean Biden
Ohio
from Toss Up Trump
to Toss Up Biden
Pennsylvania
from Lean Biden
to Toss Up Biden
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

--
Methodological Note: In past years, FHQ has tried some different ways of dealing with states with no polls or just one poll in the early rounds of these projections. It does help that the least polled states are often the least competitive. The only shortcoming is that those states may be a little off in the order in the Spectrum. In earlier cycles, a simple average of the state's three previous cycles has been used. But in 2016, FHQ strayed from that and constructed an average swing from 2012 to 2016 that was applied to states. That method, however, did little to prevent anomalies like the Kansas poll that had Clinton ahead from biasing the averages. In 2016, the early average swing in the aggregate was  too small to make much difference anyway. For 2020, FHQ has utilized an average swing among states that were around a little polled state in the rank ordering on election day in 2016. If there is just one poll in Delaware in 2020, for example, then maybe it is reasonable to account for what the comparatively greater amount of polling tells us about the changes in Connecticut, New Jersey and New Mexico. Or perhaps the polling in Iowa, Mississippi and South Carolina so far tells us a bit about what may be happening in Alaska where no public polling has been released. That will hopefully work a bit better than the overall average that may end up a bit more muted.


--
Related posts:




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Friday, September 25, 2020

The Electoral College Map (9/25/20)

 Update for September 25.


Changes (September 25)
StateBeforeAfter
Nevada
Toss Up Biden
Lean Biden
Ohio
Toss Up Trump
Toss Up Biden
It was September 1 when last there was a change to the overall electoral vote tally at FHQ. Then it was Ohio drifting over the partisan line onto Toss Up Trump turf. And in the time after the conventions, it was not unreasonable to think that close as the Buckeye state may be over the remainder of the race, it would not necessarily jump the partisan line to join the Biden coalition of states. Well, close Ohio has remained in the intervening weeks, and on the weight of yesterday's Fox News poll, the state has, in fact, moved back over to Toss Up Biden territory, raising the former vice president's total projected number of electoral votes to 353. That would put Biden in between the Obama 2008 on the high end and Obama 2012 on the low end.

Yet, there are still 39 days to go until election day as the race enters this final weekend before the first presidential debate next week. There is, then, still time for things to change. And Ohio may very well be first in line to move back over the partisan line once again. Biden's current lead there is a not exactly insurmountable 0.08 points.

Elsewhere on the Friday poll release front...


Polling Quick Hits:
Arizona
(Trump 46, Biden 45)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +3.36]
The last time Data for Progress_ was in the field in Arizona in early August, Biden led by three points. In the time since then, Trump has gained a couple of points, seemingly at Biden's expense creating a four point swing and a Trump lead in the latter survey in the series. Polls of Arizona with the president ahead have been few and far between all year, but this is the second one in the last few days. But unlike that ABC/WaPo survey of the Grand Canyon state, this one was more consistent on the Trump number than on Biden's. Biden, in this one, was toward the lower end of his range in recent polling while the president was in the heart of his. The opposite was true of the ABC/WaPo poll.


California
(Biden 67, Trump 28)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +30.23]
There is not a whole lot to make of the update in California from UC-Berkeley. The university pollster last conducted a survey in the Golden state back at the end of the July and found the same 67-28 advantage for Biden. That is not only no change over those last nearly two months, but this poll matches the largest margin in California polling in calendar 2020.


Florida
(Biden 46, Trump 43)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +3.41]
For all the talk about the narrowing of the race in the Sunshine state, there is still a certain consistency there. Yes, the margin has come down in recent weeks, but looking more closely, Biden +3 has become a predictable outcome to polls in September. Of the 19 surveys conducted in whole or in party during this month so far, Biden has led by three points in nearly half of them (9 of 19). And that group includes the latest Data for Progress survey of Florida. Both candidates may come in a little behind their established FHQ averages in this poll, but both are off by about the same amount.


Maine
(Biden 50, Trump 39)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +12.79]

Maine CD1
(Biden 54, Trump 36)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +23.00]

Maine CD2
(Biden 46, Trump 43)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +2.46]
Further north in Maine, Colby College released poll results to a survey that closely resembled the status quo there. Biden was out in front statewide, way ahead in the first district and narrowly ahead in the second. And it was in the least competitive of the three where the poll diverged the most from the FHQ average shares for both candidates. Biden lagged three point behind his share there while Trump ran a couple of points ahead of his. But consistency is the name of the game with this survey.


Maryland
(Biden 62, Trump 30)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +28.76]
There has not been much survey work in the Old Line state so far in calendar 2020, so the new poll from OpinionWorks had the potential to really uproot Maryland in the order depicted on the Electoral College Spectrum below. And it did. The 32 point margin is basically 25 percent greater than in the other surveys there and expanded Biden's lead to more than 28 points in the graduated weighted average of the margin. That pushed Maryland deeper into Biden's coalition of states.


Minnesota
(Biden 47, Trump 40)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +8.14]
At one time it looked as if the race for Minnesota's ten electoral votes was tightening, but most of the polling there -- including this latest Suffolk survey -- has found the race comfortably in the Lean category range (five to ten points). There are exceptions, of course, but they are rare. However, while the margin in this poll fell in that range, there was still room for growth for both candidates. Although this was a likely voter sample, there remained more than ten percent of respondents who were either undecided or have to this point thrown their support behind a minor party candidate.


Nevada
(Biden 52, Trump 41 via Fox News | Biden 47, Trump 43 via ALG Research)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +5.82]
Ohio grabbed all the attention at the outset for jumping the partisan line into Biden territory, but Nevada also changed categories mainly on the weight of the latest Fox News poll there. That eleven point Biden lead is a bit rosy for the former vice president compared to other Silver state surveys. In fact, other than the other Fox News poll (of registered voters) back in January, no poll has found the race outside of a Biden +3-5 range. But those two polls -- even the discounted Biden +8 Fox poll from the first week of the year -- have nudged Nevada over the Lean/Toss Up line into Lean status. But Biden's advantage there is just inside the lower end of the Lean category, so Nevada remains on the Watch List. The likely switch now, however, is from Lean to Toss Up instead of the reverse.


Ohio
(Biden 50, Trump 45)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +0.08]
The impact of the new Fox News poll of Ohio is clear enough. By the slimmest of margins, the Biden +5 has moved the Buckeye state over the partisan line into Biden's coalition of states. Putting this one into context, however, reveals that 1) Fox has been Biden-favorable in its 2020 polls of Ohio and 2) that that manifests itself through a Biden share of support that comes in well above his established average based on the full world of 2020 Ohio polling. While Trump's share is generally within his range, the Biden share in the Fox poll has him about four points ahead of his. Back in June it was Biden who was right on his share in that Fox poll, and Trump under his. This one looks like an outlier if only because this is just the second time the former vice president has reached 50 percent in any poll in the Buckeye state.


Pennsylvania
(Biden 51, Trump 44 via Fox News | Biden 48, Trump 46 via Trafalgar Group)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +5.06]
That has not been the case in the Keystone state. Fox News has consistently over three polls had Biden at or over 50 percent. But only now in the first likely voter survey the firm has conducted in Pennsylvania has Trump caught up with his FHQ average in the state. Meanwhile Trafalgar has Trump running ahead of his average and Biden slightly behind his. Neither of these polls is too far off the mark compared to other recent polling in Pennsylvania. Both have the candidates with their established ranges. Pennsylvania -- still the tipping point state -- continues to flirt with that Lean/Toss Up line on the Biden side and has consistently stayed just above it for a while now.


Texas
(Trump 46, Biden 45)
[Current FHQ margin: Trump +1.18]
Finally, in Texas, Data for Progress showed a close race for the Lone Star state's 38 electoral votes. And this survey is basically right on the 47-46 advantage Trump holds in the state (after rounding). Things did not change much from yesterday when Texas came off the Watch List but remained in range. In fact, the margin ticked down just a hair but continues to be tipped in the president's direction.


NOTE: A description of the methodology behind the graduated weighted average of 2020 state-level polling that FHQ uses for these projections can be found here.


The Electoral College Spectrum1
DC-3
MA-11
(14)2
CT-7
(162)
WI-10
(253)
AK-3
(125)
AL-9
(60)
HI-4
(18)
NJ-14
(176)
NV-6
(259)
SC-9
(122)
IN-11
(51)
CA-55
(73)
OR-7
(183)
PA-203
(279 | 279)
MO-10
(113)
UT-6
(40)
VT-3
(76)
NM-5
(188)
FL-29
(308 | 259)
KS-6
(103)
KY-8
(34)
MD-10
(86)
ME-2
(190)
AZ-11
ME CD2-1
(320 | 230)
MT-3
NE CD1-1
(97)
ID-4
(26)
NY-29
(115)
CO-9
(199)
NC-15
(335 | 218)
LA-8
(93)
ND-3
(22)
WA-12
(127)
VA-13
(212)
OH-18
(353 | 203)
MS-6
(85)
SD-3
(19)
IL-20
ME CD1-1
(148)
MN-10
(222)
IA-6
(185)
AR-6
(79)
OK-7
(16)
RI-4
(152)
MI-16
(238)
GA-16
(179)
NE-2
(73)
WV-5
(9)
DE-3
(155)
NE CD2-1
NH-4
(243)
TX-38
(163)
TN-11
(71)
WY-3
NE CD3-1
(4)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.

2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Pennsylvania (Biden's toss up states plus the Pennsylvania), he would have 279 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Biden's number is on the left and Trump's is on the right in bold italics.

3 Pennsylvania
 is the state where Biden crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election, the tipping point state. The tipping point cell is shaded in yellow to denote that and the font color is adjusted to attempt to reflect the category in which the state is.

Obviously, the Nevada and Ohio moves will grab the headlines today, but there was some other movement beyond those two. Still close in their margins, Arizona and Florida once again switched spots in the order on the Electoral College Spectrum with the Grand Canyon state pushing closer to the partisan line. But as always in the situations, it is best not to get caught up in the maneuvering so much as how close the two are. Any new polls of the two has the potential to flip them again. Further out on the blue end of the Spectrum, ME CD1 shifted down a cell while Maryland moved up a couple of cells toward the left end of the Spectrum.

The Watch List continued to comprise the same ten states as it did a day ago, but the potential changes in both Nevada and Ohio have flipped since then with their category changes. But again, both are still close enough to those lines and could move back given any new polling data. Time will tell, but for now, the electoral vote tally is now projected at 353-185 again.



Where things stood at FHQ on September 25 (or close to it) in...
2016
2012
2008



--
NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Biden and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.

The Watch List1
State
Potential Switch
Arkansas
from Strong Trump
to Lean Trump
Georgia
from Toss Up Trump
to Toss Up Biden
Iowa
from Toss Up Trump
to Toss Up Biden
Louisiana
from Lean Trump
to Strong Trump
Mississippi
from Strong Trump
to Lean Trump
Nevada
from Lean Biden
to Toss Up Biden
Ohio
from Toss Up Biden
to Toss Up Trump
Pennsylvania
from Lean Biden
to Toss Up Biden
South Carolina
from Lean Trump
to Toss Up Trump
Virginia
from Strong Biden
to Lean Biden
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

--
Methodological Note: In past years, FHQ has tried some different ways of dealing with states with no polls or just one poll in the early rounds of these projections. It does help that the least polled states are often the least competitive. The only shortcoming is that those states may be a little off in the order in the Spectrum. In earlier cycles, a simple average of the state's three previous cycles has been used. But in 2016, FHQ strayed from that and constructed an average swing from 2012 to 2016 that was applied to states. That method, however, did little to prevent anomalies like the Kansas poll that had Clinton ahead from biasing the averages. In 2016, the early average swing in the aggregate was  too small to make much difference anyway. For 2020, FHQ has utilized an average swing among states that were around a little polled state in the rank ordering on election day in 2016. If there is just one poll in Delaware in 2020, for example, then maybe it is reasonable to account for what the comparatively greater amount of polling tells us about the changes in Connecticut, New Jersey and New Mexico. Or perhaps the polling in Iowa, Mississippi and South Carolina so far tells us a bit about what may be happening in Alaska where no public polling has been released. That will hopefully work a bit better than the overall average that may end up a bit more muted.


--
Related posts:
The Electoral College Map (9/24/20)

The Electoral College Map (9/23/20)

The Electoral College Map (9/22/20)


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