Wednesday, April 30, 2008

The Electoral College Maps (4/30/08)

Another Wednesday, another set of electoral college projections. New polls were few and far between this week and only served to confirm the maps from the past several weeks. The eight new polls (from eight states) did little to shake up the McCain-Clinton map, but that has been the more stable match up throughout this series of maps. Only Nevada shifted this week, moving from a toss up favoring McCain to a stronger lean toward the Arizona senator. As such, the electoral vote breakdown is largely the same as it was a week ago. McCain holds a 70 vote advantage over Clinton with 164 toss up electoral votes.
Things in the hypothetical McCain-Obama race are also similar this week compared to last. A new poll in Pennsylvania broke last week's tie between the two, handing McCain a fraction of a point's lead over the junior senator from Illinois. And as we've seen, that puts McCain over 270 electoral votes needed to take the presidency. The only other change (and this will allay the fears of some Democrats who have complained about this one) was that Massachusetts shifted from being a toss up leaning toward Obama to a more solid lean toward him. With those changes, McCain edges Obama 281-260 in the electoral college with 177 toss up electoral votes.
The few changes that did occur this week had no effect on the difference each candidate makes in each of the 50 states. Please refer to last week's McCain margin maps for a refresher on which Democrat does best in what states and how much it matters.

Recent Posts:
The State of the Race: Counting Delegates in the North Carolina Primary

The State of the Race: Counting Delegates in the Indiana Primary

The Electoral College Maps (4/23/08)
***Please see the links to past maps in the right side bar.***

1 comment:

Robert said...

The trend in the latest polls on
RCP in NC, IN and nationally among Democrats seem to favor Clinton. That trend may translate into a loss for Obama relative to McCain in subsequent polling, but I doubt it will help Clinton relative to McCain.