Friday, October 16, 2020

The Electoral College Map (10/16/20)

Update for October 16.


The work week comes to a close in much the same way that it began. Which is to say that the polling releases slowed down relative to the last few days while posting a handful more surveys than came out on Monday. Regardless, today's batch offered some unusual results from both some of the usual suspects and some of the less frequently surveyed states further out in the order on both sides of the partisan line. And perhaps suggesting that the results were uncommon is coded language for the fact that a few of these polls do not exactly match the story of consistency that FHQ has so often told in recent weeks. That said, even with a few polls that stray from consistency, little changed and that is especially true in the states that matter in the heart of the order on the Electoral College Spectrum below.

In any event, on to the polls... 


Polling Quick Hits:
Alaska
(Trump 45, Biden 39)
[Current FHQ margin: Trump +6.59]
The Last Frontier has seen but nine publicly released surveys in calendar 2020 and Siena/NYT Upshot_ was the latest to wade into the presidential, Senate and House races to gauge public sentiment as time until election day inched down below three weeks this week. What Siena found in the presidential race in its first survey there this season was not off target with respect to the overall margin. It is in line with the average margin FHQ has had for Alaska for a few weeks now. What is different in this poll is how much support both caudates are pulling. Both are at their low points by fairly significant margins. Biden lags around five points behind his graduated weighted average share of support in Alaska polling and Trump is six points off his. And this is due to Siena not prompting potential leaners among at large group of undecided respondents and those supporting other minor party candidates. But again, since the margin is consistent with where the race is Alaska has been, this poll does not shift the state much in the order among Lean Trump states. 


Arizona
(Trump 46, Biden 45)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +3.03]
Siena's survey in Alaska was not the only first time in _____ poll of the day. Targoz Market Research_ was also recently in the field but in Arizona and had Trump ahead there by one percent. Trump leads in the Grand Canyon state are not non-existent, but they have happened with some relative infrequency. Out of the 82 publicly available polls in Arizona, Trump has led in just 15 of them. In October alone there have been 13 polls conducted in the state and Trump has led in only two of them. That is just around one in every six surveys with Trump ahead. They occur. And this poll in particular finds Trump right in the middle of his range of support while Biden is toward the bottom of his recent range. Arizona remains close, but as indicated by the nature of the polling above, Biden has been consistently out in front in the state.


Florida
(Biden 48, Trump 45)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +3.36]
It was not that long ago -- in the lead up to the first debate -- that FHQ cited how often Biden +3 leads were popping up in the data in the Sunshine state. The latest Mason-Dixon poll of Florida likely voters hits that sweet spot and is at least some evidence of some contraction in the race there since July when the firm was last in the field there. Then, it was Biden 50-46 but during a period that was part of that polling surge across the country for the former vice president. The interesting thing is that both candidates have lost some support since that time. It is not much, to be sure, but both ticked down some to a point that is consistent with where the FHQ averages are for both candidates in Florida. 


Hawaii
(Biden 61, Trump 28)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +29.86]
Like Alaska, there has been little polling of Hawaii in calendar 2020 and even fewer pollsters involved. Other than a few waves of small sample surveys from Survey Monkey, MRG Research has been the only other pollster to conduct any surveys in the Aloha state and had an update released today. Like the July poll, this latest survey was among registered and not likely voters, but still saw some movement. But it was movement for just one candidate. Trump held steady in the upper 20s which is behind both his 2016 showing and his current polling average in the state. On the other hand, Biden added support in the three months since the last MRG survey of Hawaii and pulled in line with Clinton's pace there four years ago and his own current FHQ average share of support in the state. And that is not an uncommon feature of the 2020 polling in the bluest of states. Any difference between the polling of 2020 and the 2016 results in those states is typically on Trump's side of the equation. The president tends to trail his 2016 showing while Biden is often consistent with where Clinton ended up in November 2016. But hold on to that thought for a moment. It returns later on in the post. 


Michigan
(Trump 47, Biden 46)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +7.08]
With just one exception, Trafalgar Group has shown a close race for Michigan's 16 electoral votes; something that often looks similar to the 2016 results in the state. That exception was the last survey the firm conducted immediately prior to the first presidential debate at the end of September that found Biden up a couple of points. If that is one's touchstone, then it looks as if there has been a modest shift in October toward Trump. Instead, it is that late September poll that stands out in the Trafalgar series in the Great Lakes state. What is more the whole series does not exactly jibe well with the full universe of polls in Michigan in calendar 2020. Michigan has been the most frequently surveyed state this cycle and just 13 of the 103 surveys have had Biden below 47 percent as he is in the this survey. And of those 13, eight found the former vice president either tied or in the lead. All of those tended to have a high share of undecided/other respondents. And the rest were from Trafalgar which has had both candidates consistently in the mid-40s other than the pre-debate poll cited above. Typically, that ends up with Trump at the high end of his range and Biden near the low point of his. 


New Jersey
(Biden 56, Trump 36)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +19.05]
Over in the Garden state, the new Stockton University survey -- its first there of the cycle -- fell in line with the current FHQ average shares of both candidates there. But as was the case in Hawaii, the poll was consistent with the averages but was more evidence of Biden being on par with Clinton's showing in New Jersey and Trump lagging behind his by more than four points. Again, that is the trend in some deeper blue states: Biden seemingly consolidating Clinton support and Trump being unable to put together the same 2016 coalition. 


North Carolina
(Biden 49, Trump 49)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +1.76]
Emerson was back in the field in North Carolina for the first time since September and although there were some changes they were in part methodological. The 51-49 Biden edge then is a tie at Emerson now, but the college pollster added an other response in this latest survey that was not there last month. The presence of other in the October poll siphoned off a couple of point and it came mainly from Biden. However, the bottom line in this Emerson series in the Tar Heel state is that it has been close and obviously continues to be in this latest update. But in this case, the survey has Biden support in line with his average at FHQ while Trump is running out in front of his average support.




The Electoral College Spectrum1
DC-3
VT-3
(6)2
IL-20
(162)
WI-10
(253)
MO-10
(125)
TN-11
(60)
MA-11
(17)
OR-7
(169)
PA-203
(273 | 285)
AK-3
(115)
KY-8
(49)
MD-10
(27)
NJ-14
(183)
NV-6
(279 | 265)
SC -9
(112)
AL-9
(41)
HI-4
(31)
ME-2
(185)
FL-29
(308 | 259)
KS-6
(103)
SD-3
(32)
CA-55
(86)
CO-9
(194)
AZ-11
(319 | 230)
NE CD1-1
MT-3
(97)
ID-4
(29)
NYI-29
(115)
VA-13
(207)
NC-15
ME CD2-1
(335 | 219)
NE-2
(93)
AR-6
(25)
DE-3
(118)
NH-4
(211)
GA-16
(351 | 203)
IN-11
(91)
OK-7
(19)
WA-12
(130)
NM-5
(216)
OH-18
(187)
UT-6
(80)
ND-3
(12)
ME CD1-1
CT-7
(138)
MN-10
(226)
IA-6
(169)
MS-6
(74)
WV-5
(9)
RI-4
(142)
NE CD2-1
MI-16
(243)
TX-38
(163)
LA-8
(68)
WY-3
NE CD3-1
(4)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.

2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Pennsylvania (Biden's toss up states plus the Pennsylvania), he would have 285 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Biden's number is on the left and Trump's is on the right in bold italics.

3 Pennsylvania
 is the state where Biden crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election, the tipping point state. The tipping point cell is shaded in yellow to denote that and the font color is adjusted to attempt to reflect the category in which the state is.

If one expected big changes from floods of state-level polling over the last few days, then this smaller batch should certainly temper expectations today. They should be low in a fairly consistent race anyway. And while there were no changes to the map or the Watch List below, some of the polls above whether unusual or not from and/or from sporadically surveyed states triggered a couple of changes. The margin grew in Hawaii after the MRG poll was added there, pushing the Aloha state past New York and California deeper into the Biden coalition of states. The Siena poll of Alaska had the opposite effect. Yes, the Last Frontier remains in a tightly clustered group with Missouri and South Carolina, but the poll release there today drew the average in just enough to pull Alaska past Missouri toward the partisan line. Still, both of those states are safely blue and red respectively. And that is unlikely to change between now and election day. 

18 days to go.


Where things stood at FHQ on October 16 (or close to it) in...
2016
2012
2008


--
NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Biden and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.

The Watch List1
State
Potential Switch
Georgia
from Toss Up Biden
to Toss Up Trump
New Hampshire
from Strong Biden
to Lean Biden
New Mexico
from Strong Biden
to Lean Biden
Ohio
from Toss Up Trump
to Toss Up Biden
Pennsylvania
from Lean Biden
to Toss Up Biden
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

--
Methodological Note: In past years, FHQ has tried some different ways of dealing with states with no polls or just one poll in the early rounds of these projections. It does help that the least polled states are often the least competitive. The only shortcoming is that those states may be a little off in the order in the Spectrum. In earlier cycles, a simple average of the state's three previous cycles has been used. But in 2016, FHQ strayed from that and constructed an average swing from 2012 to 2016 that was applied to states. That method, however, did little to prevent anomalies like the Kansas poll that had Clinton ahead from biasing the averages. In 2016, the early average swing in the aggregate was  too small to make much difference anyway. For 2020, FHQ has utilized an average swing among states that were around a little polled state in the rank ordering on election day in 2016. If there is just one poll in Delaware in 2020, for example, then maybe it is reasonable to account for what the comparatively greater amount of polling tells us about the changes in Connecticut, New Jersey and New Mexico. Or perhaps the polling in Iowa, Mississippi and South Carolina so far tells us a bit about what may be happening in Alaska where no public polling has been released. That will hopefully work a bit better than the overall average that may end up a bit more muted.


--
Related posts:




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Thursday, October 15, 2020

The Electoral College Map (10/15/20)

Update for October 15.


Thursday was another day with a ton of new polling data. There were 22 new surveys from 13 states (and the two congressional districts in Maine) in total. But for all the new numbers, there just were not that many changes to go along with them. It is not that this race is not changing. It is. But it is changing with some measure of subtlety. At this point, the battleground and target states are saturated with polls and despite the fact that older polls are discounted in the FHQ formula, that over-saturation of surveys means that it is difficult to move the needle in any marked way. 

It takes a steady stream of surveys with results noticeably different the average margin (or shares of support) to affect things. Take North Carolina and Pennsylvania as examples. The margin in the Tar Heel state last month was tracking down toward Biden +1.25 but has since reversed course and has today surpassed Biden +1.75. And that is due in part to the recent rush of polls out of North Carolina, many of which have the former vice president ahead by four to five points. Those changes have happened fairly rapidly, but FHQ by design is slow to react (and will likely continue to be slow in changing should any new data continue to reflect the recent reality in North Carolina polling). 

Pennsylvania has followed a similar trajectory, but the changes there have taken place more gradually. Once threatening to jump the Lean/Toss Up line into Toss Up Biden territory, a similar but more spaced out group of polls have nudged the margin in the Keystone state back up to around Biden +5.5 with some signs of plateauing there. 

Other sites may have both of these states a bit further into Biden's column than here at FHQ, but those models are designed to be a bit more responsive to changing polling data. The formula at FHQ is put together a bit differently and the numbers reflect that. There is some general skepticism built in here that may admittedly miss a late break ahead of election day, but operates with the assumption that things ultimately regress to the mean. 

In any event, despite all of the methodological differences, the order of states here is still fairly consistent with what it is at other sites and that is especially true among the battleground and target states. 

But enough of all that. On to the polls... 


Polling Quick Hits:
Arizona
(Biden 49, Trump 47 via Ipsos | Biden 49, Trump 47 via Monmouth | Biden 49, Trump 45 via OH Predictive)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +3.10]
Two of the three new polls showed little to no difference over the previous surveys in the series. The latest from Ipsos in the Grand Canyon state continued to give Biden a two point cushion (although both candidate gained a point since the last poll) and the former vice president had the exact 49-47 lead in the Monmouth poll which broke a 47-47 tie (in the low turnout model) in the September poll. But where there was some significant ostensible narrowing was in the OH Predictive survey. There the Democratic nominee's ten point lead was more than halved. And although that shift will grab the attention, that last poll serves as an outlier among the other surveys in Arizona at the time. This is more regressing to the mean more than it is actual tightening in this race. Biden is consistent across all three poll -- a little above his FHQ average share of support -- and the president is more consistent in the OH Predictive poll than in the other two. But none are far off and all are consistent with where the battle for Arizona's 11 electoral votes has been: slightly tilted in Biden's direction. 


Colorado
(Biden 54, Trump 42 via Civiqs | Biden 54, Trump 39 via Keating Research)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +12.96]
Consistency is also the name of the game in Colorado. Sure, the Centennial state has been surveyed far fewer times than Arizona, but both of these polls point toward a similar conclusion. Keating was last in the field in the state in May and the picture is hardly different now. Biden is still in the mid-50s and Trump in the upper 30s. And the Civiqs survey -- its first in Colorado in calendar 2020 -- does not stray too far from that bottom line. Again, every time a new Colorado survey is released, it is worth pointing out just how foreign such a wide margin is even relative to 2016 (much less any of the other cycles this century). It is a safe state for Democrats this cycle and has been throughout.


Florida
(Biden 50, Trump 47 via Ipsos | Biden 47, Trump 40 via Clearview Research)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +3.37]
Today was another day with a couple of new polls out of the Sunshine state; the third day in a row. FHQ will focus on the Ipsos poll since this was the first Clearview survey of calendar 2020 and had a wider than average margin while it left a large undecided number sitting out there (9 percent) unprompted. In the Ipsos series, however, there were some subtle changes like the Arizona poll from the firm above. Biden tacked on an additional point while Trump gained two of his own. That marginally narrowed the race through the Ipsos lens but brought the latest survey more in line with the graduated weighted average margin in the Sunshine state at FHQ. And the margin has continued to sort of plateau in the three to four point range. There has been some oscillation, but every move toward contraction is met with data that pushes the candidates further apart.


Georgia
(Biden 46, Trump 46)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +0.03] 
Even with yesterday's outlier in the rearview and a new survey from Data for Progress showing the major party candidates knotted at 46, things stayed about where they were a day ago. The Peach state is basically tied -- and has been -- but currently remains tipped in the former vice president's direction by the slimmest of margins. Obviously, a tied poll will do little to change that. And this one look exactly like the last DfP poll in Georgia in mid-September: tied at 46.


Iowa
(Trump 48, Biden 47)
[Current FHQ margin: Trump +1.27]
Data for Progress was also back in the field for the first time since September in Iowa. In this instance, however, there was some change on the margins. Trump inched up a point and Biden added another two to bring him to within one of the president. That change also pulled the DfP series in line with the FHQ average margin in the Hawkeye state. The candidates' shares are also now roughly in line with their FHQ averages as well. Iowa is close in the polls on average, but for every one Biden lead there are probably two or three for Trump and that is what continues to keep the president narrowly ahead in the state. 


Maine
(Biden 50, Trump 40)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +13.60]

Maine CD1
(Biden 54, Trump 37)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +23.41]

Maine CD2
(Biden 47, Trump 43)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +1.51]
While the statewide numbers and those in the first congressional district understate Biden's advantage in each, FHQ will once again focus on the data from the second district in this new Pan Atlantic Research survey of the Pine Tree state. This is the first public poll that the firm has conducted in Maine, so there is no natural comparison. But after the latest Critical Insights survey found Trump up eight in the second, Biden's +4 in this survey serves as a bit of a counter. Yet, the race for that single electoral vote in the more rural northern district in Maine remains the jurisdiction closest to the partisan line on the Biden side, but it pushed the margin a little closer to North Carolina's. On the whole, this Pan Atlantic survey is on par with both candidates' shares of support. It find both candidates right in the hearts of their ranges in the second in any event. 


Michigan
(Biden 48, Trump 42)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +7.19]
Thursday was another day with another Michigan poll with Biden ahead in the six to nine point range. The latest (although there is one from Civiqs discussed as part of a wave below) was from RMG Research. And those polls are not doing much to change the outlook in the Great Lakes state. That is particularly true of this survey that falls roughly in line with both candidates' average shares of support at FHQ. One place that it does break from some recent polling in the state is that it finds Biden below 50 percent and at the bottom of his recent range of results there. Still, the status quo was maintained in this one. 


North Carolina
(Biden 51, Trump 46)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +1.79]
FHQ mentioned at the outset today that those polls with Biden four to five points are fueling a push in the margin back in his favor. The Civiqs update in the Tar Heel state added another datapoint to that. But this is an update to a (now) series of polls that found Biden ahead by three back in May among a sample of registered voters in North Carolina. The transition to likely voters now (and time since May) has shifted things in the former vice president's direction. Trump held steady at 46 percent, but Biden jumped up above 50 percent. That 46 percent is in line with Trump's current average level of support in the state, but Biden's 51 percent is out in front of his while being consistent with a marginal rising tide of support for him. There are a few more 47-50s popping up for Biden than the 45-47 range that was the core of the Democratic nominees polling there.


Pennsylvania
(Biden 46, Trump 43)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +5.49]
Yesterday Trafalgar charted out a battle in the Keystone state that was within two points and today it is  Insider Advantage finding Biden up just three. Both have Trump hovering around his average share of support but Biden well below his. Both also have a fairly significant share of respondents that fall into the undecided or other category. It has been those types of polls -- those with an undecided share plus other collectively approaching 10 points -- that have tended to be closer not just in the commonwealth but in other states, both battleground and otherwise, as well. 


South Carolina
(Trump 49, Biden 41 via Siena/NYT Upshot | Trump 52, Biden 43 via Data for Progress)
[Current FHQ margin: Trump +6.75]
While the summer saw a host of surveys in the Palmetto state find the race for the state's nine electoral votes in the mid-single digits, the polling has taken a turn in October. Recently polling in South Carolina though sporadic still has begun to show the president out to leads approaching ten points. That includes both surveys released today. The Siena poll is like a lot from the college pollster. It leaves undecideds unprompted which typically means the candidates fall short of their established average shares. That is true in this case. And while the Siena poll lacks a true point of comparison, the Data for Progress survey does not. And that series has shown some real movement since the September poll. Biden held steady at 43 percent, but Trump consolidated support with his share rising by five points as the undecided respondents fell by an equivalent five points. Now, that 52-43 lead for the president helps to stretch the average margin out there but it still has Trump lagging a few points behind his 2016 showing while remaining above 50 percent. Biden may have improved over Clinton's pace from four years ago, then, but that is all for nought given where the president is. Again, South Carolina on the Trump side of the partisan line looks a lot like those Lean Biden states on the other side. 


Virginia
(Biden 55, Trump 42 via Civiqs | Biden 53, Trump 38 via Roanoke College)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +12.30]
Like Colorado above, the polling in Virginia does not look like it has in some past cycles during the 21st century. The Old Dominion is not nearly as competitive as it has been and the polling has continually painted that picture in 2020. Biden is comfortably above 50 percent in the averages in the commonwealth at FHQ and neither of today's two polls diverge from that. The Roanoke polls have consistently fallen in that category in three polls since May. And even though the college pollster has had Biden in the low 50s and now right on his average share of support, they have also repeatedly found Trump in the upper 30s below his average share of support. Regardless, like Colorado, Virginia is seemingly comfortably in Biden's column despite some recent assertions from the Trump campaign.


Wisconsin
(Biden 47, Trump 45)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +6.30]
Another Trafalgar Group poll -- this one from Wisconsin -- does not suffer as acutely from the same drawback discussed above in the Pennsylvania discussion. In this instance, the combined undecided/other share is not as large, but the margin is much closer than some other recent public opinion work in the Badger state. It does, however, find Biden on the low end of his range of recent results as Trump is toward the higher end of his. And one could focus on those issues or point toward the fact that in the Trafalgar series in Wisconsin, little has changed since the firm last conducted a poll there in late September. Trump gained a point and that is it. This is yet another story of consistency.


Civiqs (October Rust Belt Rising wave)

Ohio: Trump +3 (Biden +2, Trump +2 since September round)) [Current FHQ margin: Trump +0.59]
Pennsylvania: Biden +7 (Biden +/-0, Trump +/-0)
Wisconsin: Biden +8 (Biden +2, Trump +1)
Michigan: Biden +9 (Biden -1, Trump +1)

Not to give the last Rust Belt series of polls from Civiqs short shrift, but there was not much movement for either candidate among these four Great Lakes states since September. More importantly, perhaps, the order of the states matches the rank order depicted on the Spectrum below. And while the margin in Ohio may be a bit more in Trump's favor than the average margin here at FHQ, the margins in the other three states are maybe tilted a bit more in the other direction. But they do fall in line with where much of recent polling has been in those three blue wall states that Trump flipped in 2016. 


NOTE: A description of the methodology behind the graduated weighted average of 2020 state-level polling that FHQ uses for these projections can be found here.


The Electoral College Spectrum1
DC-3
VT-3
(6)2
IL-20
(162)
WI-10
(253)
MO-10
(125)
TN-11
(60)
MA-11
(17)
OR-7
(169)
PA-203
(273 | 285)
AK-3
(115)
KY-8
(49)
MD-10
(27)
NJ-14
(183)
NV-6
(279 | 265)
SC -9
(112)
AL-9
(41)
CA-55
(82)
ME-2
(185)
FL-29
(308 | 259)
KS-6
(103)
SD-3
(32)
NY-29
(111)
CO-9
(194)
AZ-11
(319 | 230)
NE CD1-1
MT-3
(97)
ID-4
(29)
HI-4
(115)
VA-13
(207)
NC-15
ME CD2-1
(335 | 219)
NE-2
(93)
AR-6
(25)
DE-3
(118)
NH-4
(211)
GA-16
(351 | 203)
IN-11
(91)
OK-7
(19)
WA-12
(130)
NM-5
(216)
OH-18
(187)
UT-6
(80)
ND-3
(12)
ME CD1-1
CT-7
(138)
MN-10
(226)
IA-6
(169)
MS-6
(74)
WV-5
(9)
RI-4
(142)
NE CD2-1
MI-16
(243)
TX-38
(163)
LA-8
(68)
WY-3
NE CD3-1
(4)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.

2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Pennsylvania (Biden's toss up states plus the Pennsylvania), he would have 285 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Biden's number is on the left and Trump's is on the right in bold italics.

3 Pennsylvania
 is the state where Biden crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election, the tipping point state. The tipping point cell is shaded in yellow to denote that and the font color is adjusted to attempt to reflect the category in which the state is.

Whereas all that polling a day ago yielded one significant change -- Georgia jumping the partisan line into Biden territory -- today's group held the line. Only South Carolina budged, shifting two cells deeper into the Lean Trump group of states and further away from the Lean/Toss Up line to which it had recently been drawn. No longer does South Carolina seem to be inching toward the Watch List (which remains unchanged from yesterday). But the Palmetto state is in a tightly knit group with Alaska and Missouri. As all of those states have dipped into or flirted with the Toss Up category in 2020, FHQ has said that those three were the states where Biden could tack on some additional electoral votes if the bottom truly dropped out on President Trump. That bottom may or may not drop out between now and election day, but Biden's prospects of adding any electoral votes from this trio of states seems dim. The gap between the last Toss Up Trump state (Texas) and the first Lean Trump state (now Missouri) is nearly five points. That is less a gap and more a chasm. If the bottom drops out on Trump, Biden's advances are likely to end at Texas. But given how consistently Iowa, Ohio and Texas have been tilted in Trump's direction those may even be tough tasks for the Biden campaign. Within range, but difficult flips. 

19 days to go.


Where things stood at FHQ on October 15 (or close to it) in...
2016
2012
2008


--
NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Biden and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.

The Watch List1
State
Potential Switch
Georgia
from Toss Up Biden
to Toss Up Trump
New Hampshire
from Strong Biden
to Lean Biden
New Mexico
from Strong Biden
to Lean Biden
Ohio
from Toss Up Trump
to Toss Up Biden
Pennsylvania
from Lean Biden
to Toss Up Biden
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

--
Methodological Note: In past years, FHQ has tried some different ways of dealing with states with no polls or just one poll in the early rounds of these projections. It does help that the least polled states are often the least competitive. The only shortcoming is that those states may be a little off in the order in the Spectrum. In earlier cycles, a simple average of the state's three previous cycles has been used. But in 2016, FHQ strayed from that and constructed an average swing from 2012 to 2016 that was applied to states. That method, however, did little to prevent anomalies like the Kansas poll that had Clinton ahead from biasing the averages. In 2016, the early average swing in the aggregate was  too small to make much difference anyway. For 2020, FHQ has utilized an average swing among states that were around a little polled state in the rank ordering on election day in 2016. If there is just one poll in Delaware in 2020, for example, then maybe it is reasonable to account for what the comparatively greater amount of polling tells us about the changes in Connecticut, New Jersey and New Mexico. Or perhaps the polling in Iowa, Mississippi and South Carolina so far tells us a bit about what may be happening in Alaska where no public polling has been released. That will hopefully work a bit better than the overall average that may end up a bit more muted.


--
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Wednesday, October 14, 2020

The Electoral College Map (10/14/20)

Update for October 14.


Changes (October 14)
StateBeforeAfter
Georgia
Toss Up Trump
Toss Up Biden
As the calendar flipped under three weeks until election day on November 3, Wednesday was met with a host of new state-level polling. Including some leftovers from late Tuesday, there were 21 new surveys from 13 states from across the spectrum. All six categories here at FHQ were represented. And for once a tsunami of new polling data actually triggered some changes. Georgia jumped the partisan line in order and for the second time this month became a Toss Up Biden state by the slimmest of margins. 

But as has been the case with these partisan line-jumping changes in Georgia and Ohio especially is that the moves, although consequential, are less important than the fact that both states continue to be the closest two states on the board here at FHQ. And that should likely be the take home message from this latest shift: the Peach state is close rather than Georgia is now blue. The simple fact remains that Georgia is still closer to switching back to Toss Up Trump than Ohio is to join Georgia on the Biden side of the partisan line. Obviously that could change as new polling data is revealed, but for now, both states are close. 

And not to beat a dead horse here, but if the conversation on November 3 is that Georgia and Ohio are still the most competitive states, then the former vice president is probably in good enough shape in states to the Biden side of Georgia and Ohio to be well above the 270 electoral vote mark. The order may end up being wrong where it counts in that middle column of the Spectrum in the end -- these things happen -- but it has been awfully consistent over time in this race. 

Anyway to the (flood of) polls...


Polling Quick Hits:
Florida
(Trump 48, Biden 46 via Trafalgar Group | Biden 49, Trump 47 via St. Pete Polls)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +3.32]
The pair of Sunshine state polls yesterday painted a similar picture, but the two from today are less consistent. And while one could raise the fact that the St. Pete Poll is more consistent with both the polls from a day ago and the average shares of support for both candidates, the truth of the matter is that both surveys are consistent with their preceding September polls. The leading candidate dropped a point in both and that is it. The polls may differ, but that neither has changed all that much over a month is the prevailing datapoint here. 


Georgia
(Biden 48, Trump 46 via Survey USA | Biden 51, Trump 44 via Quinnipiac)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +0.03] 
Georgia was another state with a couple of polls out today. One of them -- the Survey USA poll -- is more in line with the 47-47 (rounded) tie in the FHQ averages in the Peach state. The other from Quinnipiac shows some signs of being an outlier. Now, if one puts any stock in the notion that President Trump's debate performance and Covid diagnosis were injurious to his reelection chances and further that that would be reflected in this polls, then perhaps this Quinnipiac survey is less an outlier. The survey the university pollster conducted in the state immediately prior to the debate also had Biden ahead, but his advantage was 50-47. Biden's support has not really changed much since then, but Trump's definitely trailed off over the same period. Of course, being consistent with that narrative is one thing. Actually fitting in with other data is another. And clearly this one is off target among other recent Georgia polls. And to expand the scope a bit, put it this way: If Ohio and Georgia are truly as close in the order as they are in the Spectrum below, then there is little chance that while Ohio is Biden +1 that Georgia is simultaneously Biden +7. This one is an outlier unless further information comes along to confirm it in the days ahead. 


Indiana
(Trump 49, Biden 42)
[Current FHQ margin: Trump +11.99]
This is the first Survey USA poll of the Hoosier state in calendar 2020 and it generally shows a race that is closer than many surveys there have. Polling has been limited in Indiana but this is just the second survey to find Trump under 50 percent in the state. The Biden number is in range of his FHQ average share of support, but it is that below average Trump share that is driving the margin down in this poll. This is not 2008 and Indiana is not a toss up or even a lean for that matter. 


Iowa
(Trump 50, Biden 44)
[Current FHQ margin: Trump +1.28]
FHQ is not going to spend much time on these midwest surveys from David Binder Research. The sample across Iowa, Minnesota and Wisconsin was just 600 likely voters evenly split into state-level subsamples of 200. That not only leads to super high margins of error, but also means that this trio of polls has the potential to significantly diverge from the established state of the race in any of the three. That is probably most clear in Iowa. The president consistently leads there, but more narrowly than six points in most recent polls (other than Survey Monkey). Trump is toaward the upper end of his range while Biden is at the low end of his in this one. 


Louisiana
(Trump 54, Biden 36)
[Current FHQ margin: Trump +16.74]
Trafalgar Group was not only in the field in Florida recently but in the Pelican state as well. And in Louisiana, Trump's support has held steady since the last poll from the firm in August. Biden meanwhile has dropped a couple of points in the same time span. This survey has both candidates lagging behind their average shares of support, but is within range of the overall average margin in Louisiana. And the end result is that Louisiana holds its ground where it was in the order. 


Michigan
(Biden 51, Trump 44 via Ipsos | Biden 48, Trump 39 via EPIC-MRA)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +7.19]
That same picture of consistency carries over into Michigan where the pair of polls from Ipsos and EPIC-MRA do not differ much from the previous polls in either series. Like the two surveys out of Florida today, the difference relative to the immediately prior polls is a point here and there. Nevermind that the margins in both surveys are in line with the overall average in the Great Lakes state. Wash, rinse, repeat. The story is the same in Michigan as well. 


Minnesota
(Biden 52, Trump 41)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +8.42]
Again, take these small sample David Binder Research surveys with a grain of salt. There are polls that have Biden up double digits in Minnesota but they are few compared to the bulk of surveys that find the race in the upper single digits. This update does show a tighter race than the Binder survey did in July when Biden was up 18. Trump gained more than Biden lost from a poll that came in during the tail end of the former vice president's early summer polling surge. But the Democratic nominee continues to maintain a comfortable lead in a state viewed as a flip opportunity in the Trump campaign. 


Montana
(Trump 51, Biden 44)
[Current FHQ margin: Trump +8.60]
It has been a while since MSU Bozeman was last in the field in the Treasure state with a survey. And although Trump's lead has stretched from five to seven points, the real change is in the share of support for third party candidates and those respondents who were undecided back in April. The two major party candidates control 95 percent of the support now, but only 85 percent then. More minds have been made up in the last six months and the president still holds a large enough lead, but one that is far below the 21 point edge the president had on election day in 2016.


New Hampshire
(Biden 55, Trump 43 via UNH | Biden 51, Trump 41 via Suffolk)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +10.69]
Polling has been sporadic in the Granite state in 2020 compared to past cycles, but it has picked up in recent days and begun to more consistently find Biden ahead by double digits. That is true in both the releases today. In the last few weeks the former vice president has added a couple of points to his share of support in the UNH series of polls as Trump lost a point on his. That previous poll was in the field just before the first presidential debate, and that may have been something of a catalyst to the change, but it could just as easily be statistical noise. Regardless both of today's surveys have Biden above 50 percent in New Hampshire and his average share is approaching 53 percent. If Trump is going to flip what was a state he narrowly lost in 2016, then something is going to have to change and quickly. 


North Carolina
(Biden 46, Trump 42 via Siena/NYT Upshot | Biden 48, Trump 48 via Ipsos |
Biden 50, Trump 45 via Survey USA | Biden 48, Trump 46 via Susquehanna Polling and Research |
Biden 47, Trump 45 via RMG Research)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +1.74]
FHQ could probably do a separate post on all of the polls released from North Carolina over the last two days. But they all tell a similar story. With the exception of the Ipsos survey, Biden leads and by more than the current FHQ margin in the Tar Heel state. And pollsters that have conducted surveys in North Carolina during this cycle -- Upshot and Survey USA -- Biden's edge has increased since the last poll. [Ipsos had the race tied in September and still does now.] That has pushed what had been a consistent 47-46 (rounded) average advantage for the Democratic nominee to a 48-46 (round) lead. That change is small, but significant in a state that the president absolutely needs in order to get to 270. 


Ohio
(Biden 48, Trump 47)
[Current FHQ margin: Trump +0.49]
The Georgia poll from Quinnipiac may have been an outlier, but the Ohio survey is more on target compared to other recent polls in the Buckeye state. Biden has held leads there, but again, they have tended to be small and the president still has the slight advantage overall. But while it could be argued that polling in, say, North Carolina indicates a change in the direction of the race there (toward Biden), the same is not the case in Ohio (like a number of states above). Through the Quinnipiac lens, the race has not changed at all since a September survey before the first debate. This one is well within normal polling variation.


Pennsylvania
(Biden 49, Trump 43)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +5.50]
The thing about polls of Pennsylvania at this point is that most of them fall into a range of five to six points with a few that pop up outside of that. Obviously, that does little to change the commonwealth's position in the order on the Spectrum below and the new RMG Research survey follows suit. Again, it is the consistency that is the story, one that makes Trump's prospects dim but certainly not extinguished in the Keystone state. Again, however, time is running out to reverse course there and elsewhere. 


Wisconsin
(Biden 53, Trump 43)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +6.34]
That sentiment is true in Wisconsin as well. And yes, this latest David Binder Research poll does nothing to change the president's fortunes in the Badger state, but it is a survey with a limited number of respondents. Despite that, double digit Biden leads in polls have not been uncommon in Wisconsin of late and the margin there has begun to tick upward. But this survey is consistent on the Trump number relative to the average share at FHQ and Biden's support runs a bit ahead of his. 



[Note that Survey Monkey released another round of polling in all 50 states and the District of Columbia. But as that wave was in the field from mid-September through mid-October, it overlaps with the previous round. Interviews from September 15-30 would essentially be double counted, and FHQ has opted as a result to withhold those polls until the full and separate October wave is complete.]


NOTE: A description of the methodology behind the graduated weighted average of 2020 state-level polling that FHQ uses for these projections can be found here.


The Electoral College Spectrum1
DC-3
VT-3
(6)2
IL-20
(162)
WI-10
(253)
SC-9
(125)
TN-11
(60)
MA-11
(17)
OR-7
(169)
PA-203
(273 | 285)
MO-10
(116)
KY-8
(49)
MD-10
(27)
NJ-14
(183)
NV-6
(279 | 265)
AK-3
(116)
AL-9
(41)
CA-55
(82)
ME-2
(185)
FL-29
(308 | 259)
KS-6
(103)
SD-3
(32)
NY-29
(111)
CO-9
(194)
AZ-11
(319 | 230)
NE CD1-1
MT-3
(97)
ID-4
(29)
HI-4
(115)
VA-13
(207)
NC-15
ME CD2-1
(335 | 219)
NE-2
(93)
AR-6
(25)
DE-3
(118)
NH-4
(211)
GA-16
(351 | 203)
IN-11
(91)
OK-7
(19)
WA-12
(130)
NM-5
(216)
OH-18
(187)
UT-6
(80)
ND-3
(12)
ME CD1-1
CT-7
(138)
MN-10
(226)
IA-6
(169)
MS-6
(74)
WV-5
(9)
RI-4
(142)
NE CD2-1
MI-16
(243)
TX-38
(163)
LA-8
(68)
WY-3
NE CD3-1
(4)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.

2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Pennsylvania (Biden's toss up states plus the Pennsylvania), he would have 285 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Biden's number is on the left and Trump's is on the right in bold italics.

3 Pennsylvania
 is the state where Biden crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election, the tipping point state. The tipping point cell is shaded in yellow to denote that and the font color is adjusted to attempt to reflect the category in which the state is.

There was a flood of polling data released today on the state-level and while one can point to some examples of Biden stretching out his advantage over the president, there was just as much if not more to suggest that the race has barely changed if at all. One place where things did change -- and on the weight of a likely outlier poll -- was Georgia. The Peach state jumped the partisan line and rejoined the former vice president's coalition of states. But that margin -- Biden +0.03 -- suggests that it may not be there to stay. Again, the take home message is that Georgia remains close, and that is not what the president's campaign wants at this point in time. That is all one needs to know about why the president will be there on Friday. Georgia, however, retains its cell (just not its shade) on the Spectrum and switches potential changes on the Watch List below. Other than that, though, everything else is as it was a day ago. 

20 days to go.


Where things stood at FHQ on October 14 (or close to it) in...
2016
2012
2008


--
NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Biden and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.

The Watch List1
State
Potential Switch
Georgia
from Toss Up Biden
to Toss Up Trump
New Hampshire
from Strong Biden
to Lean Biden
New Mexico
from Strong Biden
to Lean Biden
Ohio
from Toss Up Trump
to Toss Up Biden
Pennsylvania
from Lean Biden
to Toss Up Biden
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

--
Methodological Note: In past years, FHQ has tried some different ways of dealing with states with no polls or just one poll in the early rounds of these projections. It does help that the least polled states are often the least competitive. The only shortcoming is that those states may be a little off in the order in the Spectrum. In earlier cycles, a simple average of the state's three previous cycles has been used. But in 2016, FHQ strayed from that and constructed an average swing from 2012 to 2016 that was applied to states. That method, however, did little to prevent anomalies like the Kansas poll that had Clinton ahead from biasing the averages. In 2016, the early average swing in the aggregate was  too small to make much difference anyway. For 2020, FHQ has utilized an average swing among states that were around a little polled state in the rank ordering on election day in 2016. If there is just one poll in Delaware in 2020, for example, then maybe it is reasonable to account for what the comparatively greater amount of polling tells us about the changes in Connecticut, New Jersey and New Mexico. Or perhaps the polling in Iowa, Mississippi and South Carolina so far tells us a bit about what may be happening in Alaska where no public polling has been released. That will hopefully work a bit better than the overall average that may end up a bit more muted.


--
Related posts:




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