Thursday, October 6, 2016

The Electoral College Map (10/6/16)



New State Polls (10/6/16)
State
Poll
Date
Margin of Error
Sample
Clinton
Trump
Undecided
Poll Margin
FHQ Margin
Arizona
9/28-9/30
+/- 3.66%
718 likely voters
42
42
9
+/-0
--
Arizona
10/2-10/4
+/- 3.9%
600 likely voters
44
42
6
+2
+1.80
Florida
9/27-10/4
+/- 3.8%
686 likely voters
41
38
10
+3
--
Florida
10/2-10/4
+/- 3.9%
600 likely voters
44
45
4
+1
+2.04
Indiana
10/3-10/5
+/- 4.0%
600 likely voters
38
43
8
+5
+11.11
Maryland
9/27-9/30
+/- 4.0%
706 likely voters
63
27
2
+36
+28.28
Michigan
10/1-10/3
+/- 4.0%
600 likely voters
43
32
12
+11
+6.22
Nevada
10/2-10/4
+/- 3.6%
700 likely voters
43
43
2
+/-0
+0.25
New Hampshire
10/3-10/5
+/- 4.4%
500 likely voters
44
42
8
+2
+5.10
Ohio
9/27-10/2
+/- 3.46%
800 likely voters
44
42
4
+2
+0.56
Rhode Island
10/2-10/4
+/- 3.9%
600 likely voters
52
32
6
+20
+12.29
Tennessee
9/19-10/2
+/- 3.7%
1000 registered voters
33
44
14
+11
+14.52
Texas
9/29-10/1
+/- 3.51%
780 likely voters
37.95
44.87
10.26
+6.92
+8.63
West Virginia
9/13-9/17
+/- 5.0%
500 likely voters
28
60
12
+32
+24.70


Polling Quick Hits:
Yesterday's trickle is today's relative flood of new state-level polling data to dig into.

Arizona:
The most recent wave of UPI/CVOTER polls had Trump ahead by ten points in the Grand Canyon state. And it stands alone in a series of around two point leads in surveys throughout 2016 in the state.  Even without cell phone users included in the sample, Emerson falls in that range in its new Arizona poll. Of course, this is the first poll Clinton has led there since the end of August. The balance of narrow leads had shifted primarily toward Trump through September; building a small but seemingly durable lead for the New York businessman. The tie in the OH Predictive Insights polls is in a similar position, although this is the closest Trump has been in a series of surveys that have favored Clinton all year.


Florida:
The two new polls from the Sunshine state can tell a couple of different stories taken on their face(s). On the one hand, they represent more evidence that Florida is close. But Florida is always close. On the other, one could take a slightly out of context position that, together, they offer a mixed message about who is ahead. Of the 14 polls in the field after September 11 that FHQ has included in the averages, Clinton has led in 11 of them. Out of the two new polls, take that Emerson one with a grain of salt.


Indiana:
Before jumping to conclusions on the latest Howey survey out of Republican vice presidential nominee Mike Pence's home state, some context. The last poll there was pretty close to the same. Trump is pulling the same 43 percent he did at the beginning of September as he is now. The difference is on Clinton's side, and it is a minimal two percentage point shift in her share of support. Things have gotten marginally closer, then, but only slightly lowers the FHQ graduated weighted average in a Strong Trump state.


Maryland:
Two things on this latest Washington Post poll of Maryland:
1. It looks a lot like the 2012 vote (share) distribution in the Old Line state (only Trump is lagging behind Romney).
2. It also closely resembles the poll the paper conducted in the state in March. Clinton's share is the same and Trump's has increased by one percent.

Mark Maryland as safely blue.


Michigan:
One could argue that Clinton got a bounce in Michigan out of the first debate. Across the last two EPIC/MRA surveys -- one last month before the debate and one this week -- her margin in the Great Lakes state has ballooned from three to eleven. Yet, that may miss part of the story in Michigan. What is interesting is that the two candidates shares of support in the firm's surveys of Michigan have snapped back to exactly where they were just after the two conventions had wrapped up.

Michigan remains one of those 40 percent states for Trump, a state where Trump has struggled to reach and/or stay around 40 percent. Two things do work in Trump's favor there. Clinton has not really broken out of the low 40s and there continues to be a sizable chunk of undecideds there. Granted, Trump would have to win a significant portion of them to even pull even with Clinton.


Nevada:
Nevada is the closest state in FHQ's averages. Just a quarter of a point separates Clinton and Trump there. It is fitting, then, that the new Emerson poll of the Silver state finds the race knotted up. But in the post-debate landscape, this is a good poll for Trump. Everything since that point has turned in Clinton's direction in Nevada, but the leads have been slight.


New Hampshire:
Including the recent UPI/CVOTER survey the last two polls of the Granite state have shown a much tighter race than has been the case for much of the year. Unlike most states in the immediate aftermath of Clinton's mid-September illness, the polls did not really budge in New Hampshire. After the margins briefly climbed into the low double digits in some surveys just after the conventions, most settled into a Clinton +5 to +9. That trend persisted even when the polls narrowed elsewhere in September. These two could be a blip on the radar or be a sign of some new trend. However, it should be said that this is Suffolk's first trip into New Hampshire this cycle.


Ohio:
The Anzalone survey in Ohio looks a lot like another recent poll of the state. While there is some consistency across those two surveys, the reality is that the polling is mixed in Ohio. The Buckeye state is close; not Nevada close, but not far off from that either.


Rhode Island:
Changes (October 6)
StateBeforeAfter
Rhode IslandLean ClintonStrong Clinton
In 2012, the Rhode Island vote distribution ended up looking a lot like that of Maryland's. Four years later, however, the similarity has disappeared. Maryland seems the same, but Rhode Island, while still comfortably blue, has seen the gap between candidates contract. The story there is not that Trump has made any gains. He is, in fact, currently only slightly -- a point -- ahead of Romney's pace. Rather, the issue is that Hillary Clinton has consistently run well behind where Obama was in the Ocean state four years ago. Even in this new Emerson poll -- one where the former Secretary of State is well ahead of Trump -- she is about ten points behind Obama 2012.

Rhode Island could do with some more polling.


Tennessee:
Sure, both candidates are lagging behind their 2012 counterparts in this Vanderbilt poll of the Volunteer state. And Trump is even further behind Romney than Clinton is Obama. However, that does not change the fact that Trump continues to be around 15 points ahead of Clinton in Tennessee. It is still falls well into the Strong Trump group of states.


Texas:
FHQ does a mini-double take every time we see a Texas poll with Trump only ahead by a margin in the upper single digits. But those sorts of surveys have been the rule rather than the exception during 2016. While the Lone Star state has been polled infrequently, they collectively paint a picture of a consistent -- albeit it smaller than normal -- Republican advantage.


West Virginia:
For every Maryland on the Democratic side of the partisan line there is a West Virginia on the Republican side. The Mountain state is nearly the surest thing for Donald Trump, but it still amazing how far West Virginia has traveled across the Electoral College Spectrum in the time since another Clinton was the last Democrat to carry the state.


--
There was a lot to look at, but not much to show for it. The bulk of the figures had mostly Rhode Island flavored changes. The Ocean state inched back into a more typical Strong Democratic position on the map, taking its four electoral votes with it. Additionally, it represented the largest moving state on the Electoral College Spectrum; shifting three spots toward the Democratic end. The other shifts on the Spectrum were only small flips of one spot. Finally, the Watch List lost both Rhode Island and Michigan.




The Electoral College Spectrum1
MD-102
(13)
WA-12
(162)
PA-20
(263)
SC-9
(154)
MT-3
(53)
HI-4
(17)
NJ-14
(176)
CO-94
(272 | 275)
TX-38
(145)
AR-6
(50)
VT-3
(20)
OR-7
(183)
FL-29
(301 | 266)
AK-3
(107)
ND-3
(44)
CA-55
(75)
NM-5
(188)
NC-15
(316 | 237)
MS-6
(104)
KY-8
(41)
MA-11
(86)
ME-23
(190)
OH-18
(334 | 222)
IN-11
(98)
NE-53
(33)
NY-29+13
(116)
MN-10
(200)
NV-6
(340 | 204)
KS-6
(87)
AL-9
(28)
IL-20
(136)
MI-16
(216)
IA-6
(198)
UT-6
(81)
OK-7
(19)
DE-3
(139)
WI-10
(226)
AZ-11
(192)
LA-8
(75)
ID-4
(12)
CT-7
(146)
VA-13
(239)
GA-16
(181)
TN-11
(67)
WV-5
(8)
RI-4
(150)
NH-4
(243)
MO-10+13
(165)
SD-3
(56)
WY-3
(3)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.

2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Colorado (all Clinton's toss up states plus Colorado), he would have 275 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Clinton's number is on the left and Trumps's is on the right in bold italics.
To keep the figure to 50 cells, Washington, DC and its three electoral votes are included in the beginning total on the Democratic side of the spectrum. The District has historically been the most Democratic state in the Electoral College.

3 Maine and Nebraska allocate electoral college votes to candidates in a more proportional manner. The statewide winner receives the two electoral votes apportioned to the state based on the two US Senate seats each state has. Additionally, the winner within a congressional district is awarded one electoral vote. Given current polling, all five Nebraska electoral votes would be allocated to Trump. In Maine, a split seems more likely. Trump leads in Maine's second congressional district while Clinton is ahead statewide and in the first district. She would receive three of the four Maine electoral votes and Trump the remaining electoral vote. Those congressional district votes are added approximately where they would fall in the Spectrum above.

4 Colorado is the state where Clinton crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. Currently, Colorado is in the Toss Up Clinton category.



NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Clinton and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.


The Watch List1
State
Switch
Alaska
from Strong Trump
to Lean Trump
Colorado
from Toss Up Clinton
to Lean Clinton
Iowa
from Toss Up Trump
to Toss Up Clinton
Maine CD2
from Lean Trump
to Toss Up Trump
Mississippi
from Strong Trump
to Lean Trump
Nevada
from Toss Up Clinton
to Toss Up Trump
New Hampshire
from Lean Clinton
to Toss Up Clinton
New Jersey
from Strong Clinton
to Lean Clinton
Ohio
from Toss Up Clinton
to Toss Up Trump
Oregon
from Strong Clinton
to Lean Clinton
Pennsylvania
from Lean Clinton
to Toss Up Clinton
Virginia
from Lean Clinton
to Toss Up Clinton
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.


Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (10/5/16)

The Electoral College Map (10/4/16)

The Electoral College Map (10/3/16)

Follow FHQ on TwitterGoogle+ and Facebook or subscribe by Email.

Wednesday, October 5, 2016

The Electoral College Map (10/5/16)



New State Polls (10/5/16)
State
Poll
Date
Margin of Error
Sample
Clinton
Trump
Undecided
Poll Margin
FHQ Margin
Maine CD2
10/2-10/3
+/- 4.9%
400 likely voters
44
40
4
+4
+5.10
New Mexico
9/28-10/2
+/- 4.1%
594 likely voters
46
33
3
+13
+7.79
North Carolina
9/29-10/3
+/- 3.9%
656 likely voters
46
44
6
+2
+1.29
Ohio
10/1-10/4
+/- 4.9%
405 likely voters
44
42
6
+2
+0.51


Polling Quick Hits:
Wednesday was a light polling release day.

Maine 2nd congressional district:
Perhaps the race is getting closer in ME-02. Perhaps. While Clinton has seen an eight point shift in her direction in the last two weeks across Normington-Petts surveys in the Pine Tree state, the firm is the only one to show the former Secretary of State ahead there all year. Then again, it is not as if the polling there has been all that frequent. Trump has the edge, but that lead is buoyed by a couple of double digit margins during that mid-September period when the overall race was tightening. Now this race, too, has moved toward Clinton.


New Mexico:
Tight earlier in the week, not now. That's the horserace interpretation of New Mexico polling over the last few days. The truth of the matter is that Clinton has tended to be around the 40 percent mark and Trump right in that low to mid-30s position he is in in this Survey USA poll. This might be a sign of a Clinton-driven -- as in, Clinton's share of support is increasing -- widening of the gap or it could be an outlier. Or it could be that a narrowing of the gap nationally during the second half of September pushed some would-be Johnson supporters to or back to Clinton. The only thing that is certain in the Land of Enchantment is that the state has been underpolled.

...especially considering Johnson could be viewed to have the highest probability of siphoning off support from the major party candidates in his home state.


North Carolina:
Clinton's lead in North Carolina seems real and increasingly durable. Since the weekend before the first debate, Clinton has enjoyed a stretch of leads in nine of the last ten surveys in the Tar Heel state. Now, that is ten polls in about tens days -- the frequency is way up -- but collectively they appear to be telling a clear tale: Clinton is narrowly ahead.


Ohio:
A little over a month ago, Clinton led by four points in the last Monmouth survey of Ohio. At that point in late August, FHQ had Clinton's overall lead in the Buckeye state after the addition of that poll at 2.4 points. The margin in the latest Monmouth survey has cut that lead in half to just two points, and that is a kind of microcosm of how things have trended there. That two point contraction closely mirrors the track the FHQ graduated weighted average of Ohio has followed in that time: down a couple of points and now nearly tied.


--
With just four new polls, not much changed today. New Mexico shifted into the mathematical heart of the Lean Clinton area (and up three spots on the Spectrum). But that is the extent of the changes there. The Watch List added ME-02, but otherwise stayed the same.




The Electoral College Spectrum1
HI-42
(7)
NJ-14
(172)
PA-20
(263)
SC-9
(154)
MT-3
(53)
MD-10
(17)
OR-7
(179)
CO-94
(272 | 275)
TX-38
(145)
AR-6
(50)
VT-3
(20)
RI-4
(183)
FL-29
(301 | 266)
AK-3
(107)
ND-3
(44)
CA-55
(75)
NM-5
(188)
NC-15
(316 | 237)
MS-6
(104)
KY-8
(41)
MA-11
(86)
ME-23
(190)
OH-18
(334 | 222)
KS-6
(98)
NE-53
(33)
NY-29+13
(116)
MN-10
(200)
NV-6
(340 | 204)
IN-11
(92)
AL-9
(28)
IL-20
(136)
WI-10
(210)
IA-6
(198)
UT-6
(81)
WV-5
(19)
DE-3
(139)
MI-16
(226)
AZ-11
(192)
LA-8
(75)
OK-7
(14)
CT-7
(146)
VA-13
(239)
GA-16
(181)
SD-3
(67)
ID-4
(7)
WA-12
(158)
NH-4
(243)
MO-10+13
(165)
TN-11
(64)
WY-3
(3)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.

2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Colorado (all Clinton's toss up states plus Colorado), he would have 275 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Clinton's number is on the left and Trumps's is on the right in bold italics.
To keep the figure to 50 cells, Washington, DC and its three electoral votes are included in the beginning total on the Democratic side of the spectrum. The District has historically been the most Democratic state in the Electoral College.

3 Maine and Nebraska allocate electoral college votes to candidates in a more proportional manner. The statewide winner receives the two electoral votes apportioned to the state based on the two US Senate seats each state has. Additionally, the winner within a congressional district is awarded one electoral vote. Given current polling, all five Nebraska electoral votes would be allocated to Trump. In Maine, a split seems more likely. Trump leads in Maine's second congressional district while Clinton is ahead statewide and in the first district. She would receive three of the four Maine electoral votes and Trump the remaining electoral vote. Those congressional district votes are added approximately where they would fall in the Spectrum above.

4 Colorado is the state where Clinton crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. Currently, Colorado is in the Toss Up Clinton category.



NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Clinton and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.


The Watch List1
State
Switch
Alaska
from Strong Trump
to Lean Trump
Colorado
from Toss Up Clinton
to Lean Clinton
Iowa
from Toss Up Trump
to Toss Up Clinton
Maine CD2
from Lean Trump
to Toss Up Trump
Michigan
from Lean Clinton
to Toss Up Clinton
Mississippi
from Strong Trump
to Lean Trump
Nevada
from Toss Up Clinton
to Toss Up Trump
New Hampshire
from Lean Clinton
to Toss Up Clinton
New Jersey
from Strong Clinton
to Lean Clinton
Ohio
from Toss Up Clinton
to Toss Up Trump
Oregon
from Strong Clinton
to Lean Clinton
Pennsylvania
from Lean Clinton
to Toss Up Clinton
Rhode Island
from Lean Clinton
to Strong Clinton
Virginia
from Lean Clinton
to Toss Up Clinton
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.


Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (10/4/16)

The Electoral College Map (10/3/16)

The Electoral College Map (10/2/16)

Follow FHQ on TwitterGoogle+ and Facebook or subscribe by Email.