Tuesday, August 30, 2016

The Electoral College Map (8/30/16)




New State Polls (8/30/16)
State
Poll
Date
Margin of Error
Sample
Clinton
Trump
Undecided
Poll Margin
FHQ Margin
Pennsylvania
8/26-8/29
+/- 4.9%
402 likely voters
48
40
4
+8
+6.08


Polling Quick Hits:
The national polls have begun to show a slight redirection over the course of the last week or so; an end to the Clinton bounce/Trump decline that defined the immediate aftermath of the convention period. That could be the start of a settling into the narrowing that Jim Campbell found marked the general election campaign.

But that same sort of trend has not as clearly extended to the state level. It should be noted that that is not necessarily a function of a systematic difference across national and state-level polls. Instead, it is more attributable to the lack of a steady stream of state survey releases. With 70 days until election day, things have slowed to a trickle. Granted, things looked similar four years ago (one poll), but that was during convention season. And the flood of polling followed in September.

A similar pattern of releases did not follow convention season in 2016. The pattern to look for -- or the marker perhaps -- is the calendar flipping to September.

In any event, it is more difficult to detect whether the trend line in the national polls carries over to the state level. There just is not enough data on that yet.


Pennsylvania:
The evidence in yesterday's Emerson poll made it look as if Clinton was holding steady in her post-convention range and Trump was rebounding somewhat. That type of closing of the gap is not evident in Monmouth's first survey of the Keystone state. The eight point margin and the candidates' shares of support are consistent with the bulk of post-convention survey work there. This poll represents more of the same in Pennsylvania rather than a Trump resurgence/Clinton decline (or both).


--
Compared to the last update there were no changes to the map or Spectrum. Only one poll being added will tend to have that effect. However, on yesterday, off today: on the weight of this poll Pennsylvania eases off the Watch List. Now, it is just outside of a point away from the Lean/Toss up line on the Clinton side of the partisan line.




The Electoral College Spectrum1
HI-42
(7)
NJ-14
(175)
PA-203
(269 | 289)
MO-10
(155)
TN-11
(58)
MD-10
(17)
DE-3
(178)
NH-43
(273 | 269)
AK-3
(145)
LA-8
(47)
RI-4
(21)
WI-10
(188)
FL-29
(302 | 265)
KS-6
(142)
SD-3
(39)
MA-11
(32)
ME-4
(192)
OH-18
(320 | 236)
UT-6
(136)
ND-3
(36)
VT-3
(35)
NM-5
(197)
NC-15
(335 | 218)
TX-38
(130)
ID-4
(33)
CA-55
(90)
OR-7
(204)
IA-6
(341 | 203)
IN-11
(92)
NE-5
(29)
NY-29
(119)
MI-16
(220)
NV-6
(347 | 197)
MS-6
(81)
AL-9
(24)
IL-20
(139)
CT-7
(227)
GA-16
(191)
AR-6
(75)
OK-7
(15)
WA-12
(151)
CO-9
(236)
AZ-11
(175)
MT-3
(69)
WV-5
(8)
MN-10
(161)
VA-13
(249)
SC-9
(164)
KY-8
(66)
WY-3
(3)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.

2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Pennsylvania (all Clinton's toss up states plus Pennsylvania), he would have 289 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Clinton's number is on the left and Trumps's is on the right in bold italics.


To keep the figure to 50 cells, Washington, DC and its three electoral votes are included in the beginning total on the Democratic side of the spectrum. The District has historically been the most Democratic state in the Electoral College.

3 New Hampshire and Pennsylvania are collectively the states where Clinton crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. If those two states are separated with Clinton winning Pennsylvania and Trump, New Hampshire, then there would be a tie in the Electoral College.



NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Clinton and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.


The Watch List1
State
Switch
Alaska
from Lean Trump
to Toss Up Trump
Arizona
from Toss Up Trump
to Toss Up Clinton
Arkansas
from Strong Trump
to Lean Trump
Delaware
from Strong Clinton
to Lean Clinton
Georgia
from Toss Up Trump
to Toss Up Clinton
Indiana
from Lean Trump
to Strong Trump
Mississippi
from Strong Trump
to Lean Trump
Nevada
from Toss Up Clinton
to Toss Up Trump
New Hampshire
from Lean Clinton
to Toss Up Clinton
New Jersey
from Strong Clinton
to Lean Clinton
Wisconsin
from Lean Clinton
to Strong Clinton
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.



Monday, August 29, 2016

The Electoral College Map (8/29/16)




New State Polls (8/29/16)
State
Poll
Date
Margin of Error
Sample
Clinton
Trump
Undecided
Poll Margin
FHQ Margin
Arizona
8/25-8/27
+/- 3.63%
728 likely voters
40
39
13
+1
+0.94
Michigan
8/25-8/28
+/- 3.4%
800 likely voters
44.9
39.5
6.7
+5.4
+7.52
Ohio
8/25-8/27
+/- 3.4%
800 likely voters
42.5
43.4
2.2
+0.90
+2.20
Pennsylvania
8/25-8/28
+/- 3.4%
800 likely voters
45.9
42.7
2.9
+3.2
+5.95


Polling Quick Hits:
Monday's batch of polling brought on some level some interesting results, but from pollsters with spottier histories. Yes, there were new battleground surveys out of the Rust Belt (Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania), but it came from three landline-only samples from Emerson. In addition, there was a new poll released in Arizona from the pollster who has had one of the heavier Clinton leans of any firm in the Grand Canyon state thus far.

The silver lining -- if one wants to look at it that way -- is that less representative though these pollsters may be, it did not disrupt the picture in the electoral college that has emerged here at FHQ.


Arizona:
Looking overall at the 2016 polling in Arizona, OH Predictive Insights has now provided Clinton with three of the four leads she has had there. This latest survey is no different, though it shows a tighter race than the past polls from the firm have. The rest of the polling is close and in Trump's direction. The impact OH Predictive has had has been pretty minimal. Without them, Trump's advantage goes from just under a point to around two points. That series of polls has help Clinton, then, but not by much. Arizona is a toss up that favors Trump either with them or not.


Michigan:
In the Great Lakes state, Emerson finds a closer race than most pollsters have recently. That is more a function of Trump's position in the survey: in this case around the ceiling for Trump in Michigan in 2016. Clinton is right in the range she has been in through the first eight months of the year. The question is whether this is a trend -- Trump gaining but not taking from Clinton -- or a matter of the methodological dependence on a landline-only sample.


Ohio:
Emerson's snapshot of Ohio is also well within the established range for not only the candidates' shares of support but for the margin as well. Trump has a few more respondents in favor of him in the poll than Clinton, but the two are basically tied in the Buckeye state in this poll. It bears repeating that this is in the range of results lately witnessed in Ohio, but it breaks a string of post-convention leads for Clinton in the polls there. Like Michigan, this could be a narrowing in the polls like the contraction in the national polls.

...or, well, see the question in the Michigan section above.


Pennsylvania:
It is in Pennsylvania where the largest potential trend change can be found. The Emerson survey there bids farewell to the double digit or near double digit leads that have characterized polling in the Keystone state since convention season concluded. This one most resembles the PPP survey that was taken in the immediate aftermath of the Democratic convention. As with Michigan, the change has nothing to do with Clinton. She continues to hover in the mid- to upper 40s. Emerson finds Trump in the low 40s rather than in the mid- to upper 30s where the New York businessman has been in the majority of polls since the conventions.

Across the board, then, the Emerson polls are the story of a Trump rebound if there was an apples to apples, Emerson poll to Emerson poll comparison. There is not. But it looks like in comparison to other pollsters' recent efforts in these midwestern states. We'll need more data to know whether these are trends or outliers.


--
Compared to the last update there were no changes to the map, but Michigan flips spots with Oregon on the Spectrum and Arizona and Pennsylvania both drift within a point of switching categories to enter the Watch List. Arizona moves closer to the partisan line separating Clinton's and Trump's states and Pennsylvania tightens enough to by within a point of the Clinton Lean/Toss up line.




The Electoral College Spectrum1
HI-42
(7)
NJ-14
(175)
PA-203
(269 | 289)
MO-10
(155)
TN-11
(58)
MD-10
(17)
DE-3
(178)
NH-43
(273 | 269)
AK-3
(145)
LA-8
(47)
RI-4
(21)
WI-10
(188)
FL-29
(302 | 265)
KS-6
(142)
SD-3
(39)
MA-11
(32)
ME-4
(192)
OH-18
(320 | 236)
UT-6
(136)
ND-3
(36)
VT-3
(35)
NM-5
(197)
NC-15
(335 | 218)
TX-38
(130)
ID-4
(33)
CA-55
(90)
OR-7
(204)
IA-6
(341 | 203)
IN-11
(92)
NE-5
(29)
NY-29
(119)
MI-16
(220)
NV-6
(347 | 197)
MS-6
(81)
AL-9
(24)
IL-20
(139)
CT-7
(227)
GA-16
(191)
AR-6
(75)
OK-7
(15)
WA-12
(151)
CO-9
(236)
AZ-11
(175)
MT-3
(69)
WV-5
(8)
MN-10
(161)
VA-13
(249)
SC-9
(164)
KY-8
(66)
WY-3
(3)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.

2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Pennsylvania (all Clinton's toss up states plus Pennsylvania), he would have 289 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Clinton's number is on the left and Trumps's is on the right in bold italics.


To keep the figure to 50 cells, Washington, DC and its three electoral votes are included in the beginning total on the Democratic side of the spectrum. The District has historically been the most Democratic state in the Electoral College.

3 New Hampshire and Pennsylvania are collectively the states where Clinton crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. If those two states are separated with Clinton winning Pennsylvania and Trump, New Hampshire, then there would be a tie in the Electoral College.



NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Clinton and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.


The Watch List1
State
Switch
Alaska
from Lean Trump
to Toss Up Trump
Arizona
from Toss Up Trump
to Toss Up Clinton
Arkansas
from Strong Trump
to Lean Trump
Delaware
from Strong Clinton
to Lean Clinton
Georgia
from Toss Up Trump
to Toss Up Clinton
Indiana
from Lean Trump
to Strong Trump
Mississippi
from Strong Trump
to Lean Trump
Nevada
from Toss Up Clinton
to Toss Up Trump
New Hampshire
from Lean Clinton
to Toss Up Clinton
New Jersey
from Strong Clinton
to Lean Clinton
Pennsylvania
from Lean Clinton
to Toss Up Clinton
Wisconsin
from Lean Clinton
to Strong Clinton
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.



Friday, August 26, 2016

The Electoral College Map (8/26/16)




New State Polls (8/26/16)
State
Poll
Date
Margin of Error
Sample
Clinton
Trump
Undecided
Poll Margin
FHQ Margin
Florida
8/18-8/24
+/- 4.0%
600 registered voters
42
37
8
+5
--
Florida
8/22-8/24
+/- 4.0%
625 likely voters
44
42
6
+2
+3.18


Polling Quick Hits:
There were just a couple of polls that trickled in from Florida to end the work week.


Florida:
Like North Carolina a day ago, the story of the presidential race in Florida amounts to this with respect to the polling of the state: Show me a survey that finds anything other than a Clinton lead in the one to five point range and FHQ will call it an outlier. But give us more than one poll pointing in the same direction -- consistently more or less competitive than the above range -- and the race may be headed in another direction. Right now it is not. Florida operated in the tied to one point advantage range in the FHQ averages throughout the 2012 general election campaign. The 2016 polling in the Sunshine state is perhaps a bit more volatile, but the data are mostly clustered in the above range.


--
There were no changes to the map, Spectrum or List as compared to the last update.




The Electoral College Spectrum1
HI-42
(7)
NJ-14
(175)
PA-203
(269 | 289)
MO-10
(155)
TN-11
(58)
MD-10
(17)
DE-3
(178)
NH-43
(273 | 269)
AK-3
(145)
LA-8
(47)
RI-4
(21)
WI-10
(188)
FL-29
(302 | 265)
KS-6
(142)
SD-3
(39)
MA-11
(32)
ME-4
(192)
OH-18
(320 | 236)
UT-6
(136)
ND-3
(36)
VT-3
(35)
NM-5
(197)
NC-15
(335 | 218)
TX-38
(130)
ID-4
(33)
CA-55
(90)
MI-16
(213)
IA-6
(341 | 203)
IN-11
(92)
NE-5
(29)
NY-29
(119)
OR-7
(220)
NV-6
(347 | 197)
MS-6
(81)
AL-9
(24)
IL-20
(139)
CT-7
(227)
GA-16
(191)
AR-6
(75)
OK-7
(15)
WA-12
(151)
CO-9
(236)
AZ-11
(175)
MT-3
(69)
WV-5
(8)
MN-10
(161)
VA-13
(249)
SC-9
(164)
KY-8
(66)
WY-3
(3)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.

2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Pennsylvania (all Clinton's toss up states plus Pennsylvania), he would have 289 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Clinton's number is on the left and Trumps's is on the right in bold italics.


To keep the figure to 50 cells, Washington, DC and its three electoral votes are included in the beginning total on the Democratic side of the spectrum. The District has historically been the most Democratic state in the Electoral College.

3 New Hampshire and Pennsylvania are collectively the states where Clinton crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. If those two states are separated with Clinton winning Pennsylvania and Trump, New Hampshire, then there would be a tie in the Electoral College.



NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Clinton and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.


The Watch List1
State
Switch
Alaska
from Lean Trump
to Toss Up Trump
Arkansas
from Strong Trump
to Lean Trump
Delaware
from Strong Clinton
to Lean Clinton
Georgia
from Toss Up Trump
to Toss Up Clinton
Indiana
from Lean Trump
to Strong Trump
Mississippi
from Strong Trump
to Lean Trump
Nevada
from Toss Up Clinton
to Toss Up Trump
New Hampshire
from Lean Clinton
to Toss Up Clinton
New Jersey
from Strong Clinton
to Lean Clinton
Wisconsin
from Lean Clinton
to Strong Clinton
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.