The Electoral College Map (10/10/12)

It was another late campaign season Wednesday and with it came eleven new polls from ten states. As has been the case following the first presidential debate last week, the new data continues to indicate a closer race on the state level. But while this has meant a flood of good news for the Romney campaign, it isn't all bad news for the president. Each day usually brings some survey silver lining, but the narrowing race appears to be recalibrating the race to 270 electoral votes to some degree.

New State Polls (10/10/12)
State	Poll	Date	Margin of Error	Sample	Obama	Romney	Undecided	Poll Margin	FHQ Margin
Florida	University of North Florida	10/1-10/9	+/- 3.49%	653 likely voters	49	45	4	+4	+1.18
Maine	Pan Atlantic SMS	9/24-9/28	+/- 4.9%	400 likely voters	51	37	10	+14	+14.71
Montana	Public Policy Polling	10/8-10/10	+/- 3.6%	737 likely voters	41	52	6	+11	+9.36
Nevada	Suvrey USA	10/3-10/8	+/- 2.9%	1222 likely voters	47	46	4	+1	+4.11
Nevada	Public Policy Polling	10/8-10/10	+/- 4.0%	594 likely voters	51	47	2	+4	--
New Hampshire	Rasmussen	10/9	+/- 4.5%	500 likely voters	48	48	1	0	+4.73
New Mexico	Rasmussen	10/8	+/- 4.5%	500 likely voters	54	43	2	+11	+10.26
Ohio	Survey USA	10/5-10/8	+/- 3.5%	808 likely voters	45	44	8	+1	+3.53
Pennsylvania	Rasmussen	10/9	+/- 4.5%	500 likely voters	51	46	1	+5	+6.78
Rhode Island	Brown University	9/26-10/5	+/- 4.5%	471 likely voters	58.2	32.3	9.5	+25.9	+25.07
Wisconsin	Rasmussen	10/9	+/- 4.5%	500 likely voters	51	49	--	+2	+5.16

Polling Quick Hits:
Florida:
One of the day's silver linings for the president came from the UNF poll showing Obama up four points. If the margin seems off following the movement toward Romney, post-debate, then that has more to do with Obama's share of support in this poll than Romney's, but only slightly. The UNF survey has Romney running under his established level of support in the FHQ weighted averages while Obama is above his weighted average share of support by about two points. Now, neither candidates' level of support in this poll is out of the ordinary in terms of the polling information we have to date. But -- and this is a big but -- it is inconsistent with the handful of post-debate polls released out of Florida. Of course, it should be noted that this poll was partially in the field in the time before the first debate.

Maine:
The pre-debate survey of Maine from Pan Atlantic SMS is in line with other polls in the Pine Tree state.  It is safely blue -- statewide -- but we will need some post-debate data to fully assess the state of play in Maine.

Montana:
It took the debate to bring PPP in line with the other polls -- mostly Rasmussen -- of the Treasure state. Montana threatened competitiveness in 2008, but has shifted back toward Romney and the Republicans in 2012 in a way that has been consistent with the notion of a uniform national swing. The simple truth of the matter is that Montana is solidly in Romney's column. It has bounced around between the Lean and Strong Romney categories all year, but that has been sufficiently far out of the Obama campaign's grasp.

Nevada:
The latest poll of the Silver state may also be a silver lining (no pun intended) poll for Obama, but if that is the case, then it is actually good news for the Romney campaign. Of the four post-debate surveys conducted in Nevada none but this PPP survey have shown the advantage for either candidate outside of the one point range in either direction. If +4 Obama is a good result for the president, then it is indicative of the extent to which his lead there has quickly eroded. The poll margin is consistent with the FHQ weighted average margin in Nevada, but has both candidates above their respective weighted average shares of support. But Obama's share in this poll is above the post-debate raw average of polls. Romney's is right on track.

New Hampshire:
New Hampshire is another example of a state like Nevada where there simply isn't enough data post-debate yet. However, the one poll that we now have from Rasmussen -- the only one in the field completely after the debate -- gives some indication of tightening there. In this case, the picture shows Obama hovering around his share of support established in the FHQ weighted averages. Romney, on the other hand, is overperforming his FHQ average level of support in this poll. That, however, may not be overperforming post-debate. That could be evidence of a new normal in the aftermath.

New Mexico:
Once again, the Land of Enchantment continues to show a margin between the candidates in the low double digit range. That hasn't changed in the most recent Rasmussen poll that found both candidates gaining three points since the last pre-debate survey the firm conducted. New Mexico is a safely blue state.

Ohio:
Ohio continues to be a bright spot for Romney following the debate. Of the five polls conducted since the first debate last week only one has shown the race to be beyond a margin of one point in either direction. Sure the FHQ averages still favor the president, but a +/- 1 in Ohio -- like this latest Survey USA poll -- is a lot better than polls that had the governor down by margins in the 4-10 point range before the debate. That is a marked improvement in a state that could be vitally important in the race to 270. And yeah, that is probably understating the Buckeye state's importance. If Romney is within a point in Ohio, then he is likely in very good shape in the (blue) toss up states below it on the Electoral College Spectrum below.

Pennsylvania:
This Rasmussen poll is more evidence of a narrowing, post-debate margin in the Keystone state. It is in the Lean Obama range like the overall FHQ weighted average margin is, but is down six points since the last Rasmussen poll in Pennsylvania. Pennsylvania is still likely out of reach of the Romney campaign, but if it is competitive, that is a state where Romney could really put Obama on the defensive  in terms of resource expenditure. But Pennsylvania is still to Romney what North Carolina was to Obama in 2008. If he wins there, he's already won the White House because of other, more competitive states on the Spectrum.

Rhode Island:
Without any disrespect to the Brown poll, it really isn't telling us all that much. Well, it is, but the information is only confirming what we already knew: Rhode Island is a Strong Obama state.

Wisconsin:
At this point, just look up at the discussion for the majority of other states above. Things are narrowing in the Badger state as well, but we still don't have a lot of data to build a full picture there. Wisconsin isn't Pennsylvania to Romney, but it isn't Ohio either. If it has closed to a margin within the margin of error, then Wisconsin is a state that is a valuable leverage state; one that isn't necessary to get to 270, but one that could get Romney there should Ohio fall through. That, however, would mean that Wisconsin would have to close ground on Ohio in the averages. And that is not inconsistent with the overall toss up state weighted average compression witnessed early on in the post-debate period.

For all the talk of narrowing and compression, none of that has manifest itself on either the map or the the Electoral College Spectrum below. The electoral vote count is still unchanged since July and the basic ordering of states has been maintained on the Spectrum where it most counts; in the middle column. Surprisingly given all the polling information added today, none of the states moved on the Spectrum. That has been rare in the past.

The Electoral College Spectrum1
VT-3 (6)2	WA-12 (158)	NV-6 (257)	AZ-11 (167)	MS-6 (58)
HI-4 (10)	NJ-14 (172)	OH-183 (275/281)	MT-3 (156)	KY-8 (52)
RI-4 (14)	CT-7 (179)	IA-6 (281/263)	IN-11 (153)	AL-9 (44)
NY-29 (43)	NM-5 (184)	VA-13 (294/257)	GA-16 (142)	KS-6 (35)
MD-10 (53)	MN-10 (194)	CO-9 (303/244)	SC-9 (126)	AR-6 (29)
MA-11 (64)	OR-7 (201)	FL-29 (332/235)	NE-5 (117)	AK-3 (23)
IL-20 (84)	PA-20 (221)	NC-15 (206)	ND-3 (112)	OK-7 (20)
CA-55 (139)	MI-16 (237)	SD-3 (191)	TX-38 (109)	ID-4 (13)
DE-3 (142)	WI-10 (247)	MO-10 (188)	WV-5 (71)	WY-3 (9)
ME-4 (146)	NH-4 (251)	TN-11 (178)	LA-8 (66)	UT-6 (6)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. 2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Romney won all the states up to and including Ohio (all Obama's toss up states plus Ohio), he would have 281 electoral votes. Romney's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and Romney's is on the right in italics. 3 Ohio is the state where Obama crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line.

One place where the narrowing has shown up here on FHQ is here on the Watch List. New Hampshire slid into position to move back into the Toss Up Obama category on the strength of the tied Rasmussen poll there. Other than that, however, nothing else has changed. Ohio inched further toward shifting off the list, deeper into the Toss Up Obama area. Florida and Wisconsin are probably worth watching in addition to these six states. Both are closing in on claiming spots on the list. Florida to move into the area between both candidates' toss up categories and Wisconsin to close in on the Toss Up Obama category.

The Watch List1
State	Switch
Indiana	from Strong Romney	to Lean Romney
Minnesota	from Strong Obama	to Lean Obama
Montana	from Strong Romney	to Lean Romney
Nevada	from Lean Obama	to Toss Up Obama
New Hampshire	from Lean Obama	to Toss Up Obama
Ohio	from Toss Up Obama	to Lean Obama
1 The Watch list shows those states in the FHQ Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories. The List is not a trend analysis. It indicates which states are straddling the line between categories and which states are most likely to shift given the introduction of new polling data. Montana, for example, is close to being a Lean Romney state, but the trajectory of the polling there has been moving the state away from that lean distinction.

Please see:

Frequently Asked Questions about FHQ graduated weighted average methodology.
&
An Update on how to read it in 2012.

Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (10/9/12)

The Electoral College Map (10/8/12)

The Electoral College Map (10/6/12)

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The Electoral College Map (10/9/12)

Four weeks out from election day and in the middle of the second week of debate season, there were eleven new polls added to the FHQ dataset from ten states. We also added in a somewhat dated survey from another of those ten states, North Dakota. With few exceptions, this was another in the string of now several days of relatively good polling for Mitt Romney. Not only does the compression of toss up state averages continue, but several states are starting to move in a very noticeable way in the FHQ averages toward the former Massachusetts governor.

New State Polls (10/9/12)
State	Poll	Date	Margin of Error	Sample	Obama	Romney	Undecided	Poll Margin	FHQ Margin
Colorado	American Research Group	10/5-10/8	+/- 4.0%	600 likely voters	46	50	3	+4	+1.98
Connecticut	Rasmussen	10/7	+/- 4.5%	500 likely voters	51	45	3	+6	+11.50
Massachusetts	WBUR/MassInc	10/5-10/7	+/- 4.4%	501 likely voters	52	36	10	+16	+20.78
Minnesota	Public Policy Polling	10/5-10/8	+/- 3.2%	937 likely voters	53	43	4	+10	+9.35
Nevada	Rasmussen	10/8	+/- 4.5%	500 likely voters	47	47	3	0	+4.32
New Hampshire	WMUR/UNH	9/30-10/6	+/- 4.1%	545 likely voters	50	44	4	+6	+5.07
North Carolina	Gravis Marketing	10/6-10/8	+/- 2.9%	1325 likely voters	41.2	49.9	8.8	+8.7	+1.31
North Dakota	DFM Research	9/24-9/27	+/- 4.0%	600 likely voters	39	51	10	+12	+14.91
North Dakota	Mason-Dixon	10/3-10/5	+/- 4.0%	625 likely voters	40	54	5	+14	--
Ohio	American Research Group	10/5-10/8	+/- 4.0%	600 likely voters	47	48	4	+1	+3.60
Ohio	CNN	10/5-10/8	+/- 3.5%	722 likely voters	51	47	1	+4	--
Pennsylvania	Siena	10/1-10/5	+/- 4.2%	545 likely voters	43	40	12	+3	+6.85

Polling Quick Hits:
Colorado:
The latest ARG poll finds Obama down three points and Romney up three points as compared to the firm's mid-September survey of the Centennial state. That turned a two point Romney deficit into a four point advantage, post-debate. In terms of the candidates' respective shares of support in the poll, Romney's outperformed where the FHQ weighted average has his share charted currently and Obama, to a lesser extent, underperformed his. That has less to do with the current trajectory of the polling in Colorado than it does the conservative nature of the FHQ averages. If there is a change across the partisan line, then it is typically a lasting change unless it hovers around that line.

Connecticut:
It has been over a month since any survey found the margin in the race for the seven electoral votes in the Nutmeg state in the single digits, and this Rasmussen poll is the first to show the president's lead under seven points there. On the cautionary side, FHQ will await additional data indicating/confirming a (not illogically) close race in Connecticut. After all, there has been past data to back up that assertion and we should expect, given movement in other states, some shift toward Romney there. But we don't have enough data to suggest that Connecticut is anything more than what New Jersey was in 2004: a probably reliable blue state tempting the Republican campaign to pay more attention to it.

Massachusetts:
Even with the margin having nearly halved since the last WBUR survey of the Bay state just a week and a half ago, Massachusetts is seemingly safely blue for the Obama campaign. However, as was the case with Connecticut above, if the expectation is that the Romney debate effect will be more or less uniform across states, then things have really shifted in Massachusetts. Still, the move is worth noting even in a strongly blue state.

Minnesota:
Unlike the two strong blue states immediately above, Minnesota has resisted the post-debate swing toward Romney at least in regard to the poll-over-poll comparison between PPP surveys. Since the last (mid-September) poll, Obama gained a couple of points and Romney lost one. It is a minimal change overall, and the results are consistent with pre-debate surveys of the Land of 10,000 Lakes. But this is also the only post-debate survey we have access to in Minnesota. Other firms may offer a different account of the state of the race there.

Nevada:
Things are all tied up in Nevada (...at least according to Rasmussen). That result is consistent with the only other post-debate survey of the Silver state from Gravis. And while those two polls, together, have not been enough to fundamentally shift things in Nevada, it is worth noting that had FHQ not lowered the cutpoints between categories last week, we would be talking about how Nevada had jumped into the Toss Up Obama category. Yet, if the current polling arc toward Romney continues, such a move probably won't be too far off. FHQ did want to take a moment to point out the fact that change may be masking some category movement toward the Republican nominee in some states. Nevada is the only state so far to fall into that group, but we will be sure to indicate when that happens in the future. Given the way things are moving, New Hampshire could potentially be the next such state.

New Hampshire:
In a poll that picked up on the day that the immediately previous WMUR poll came out of the field, the overall margin between the candidates dropped by nine points. That seems like a significant shift except for a couple of related reasons. First, the previous WMUR survey was -- at Obama +15 -- an outlier. The margin was overinflated and set up nicely for a big post-debate surge in the opposite direction. However (and secondly), more than half of the data for this poll was gathered prior to the first presidential debate last week. Given the reality of those two conflicting factors, the nine point shift is slightly more impressive.

North Carolina:
Well, the Tarheel state has provided us with a double digit margin in Romney's favor before and Gravis' first foray into the state approaches that level as well. Is this poll an outlier? Probably, but not nearly to the same extent as the early September Civitas poll reference above. Things are moving in Romney's direction in North Carolina as elsewhere, but that has meant a gradual subsidence of Obama leads and the emergence of more recent polls showing a Romney advantage in the 1-4 point range. In defense of Gravis, it very well could be that it is on the upper end of a new range, but we'll need more data to make that determination.

North Dakota:
Add one new and one dated poll to the small set of polls out of the Peace Garden state. The most recent  and only post-debate survey from Mason-Dixon does not show any decided shift toward Romney; only  a modest one point jump. Rest assured, though, despite little or not shift, North Dakota is not in any danger of being anything other than a solid Romney state on November 6.

Ohio:
The New Hampshire poll looks good on the surface for the president, but given the caveat described above, the CNN survey of the Buckeye state may be the lone bright spot for the incumbent. The poll may be a bit rosy but is not completely inconsistent with the scant though comparatively robust set of post-debate polling data. Obama's share of support in the CNN poll is in line with where Rasmussen charted it on the day after the debate last week. Romney's share is slightly under the Rasmussen mark, but both are running above where the FHQ weighted average level of support has the governor at the moment. We just need more data. The ARG poll largely mirrors the We Ask America poll from last week as well; a small Romney lead. This is likely the range in which the true levels of support for the candidates reside right now.

Pennsylvania:
FHQ was skeptical in the face of the Susquehanna poll released yesterday. The firm has tended to have though not always had results that were more favorable to Romney when compared to a long list of surveys indicating a margin in the Keystone state in the Obama +6-7 area. Without further data backing up a much closer race the skepticism was not unwarranted. But today's Siena release provides Susquehanna with some relief, pointing toward a race within a few points. Granted, Siena has a very high number of undecided voters for this late in the race and as a result understates both candidates' shares of support in the FHQ weighted averages. It will take a lot of data to move Pennsylvania into range of being on the Watch List, much less moving into the toss up category. [And yes, that may be a flaw in the formula here. But recall that FHQ likes being conservative. There's a trade-off between blowing in the wind of polling fluctuations or moving when a real consistent move has occurred.]

With no polling releases out of Florida today, the best chance to see some -- the first -- change to the overall electoral vote tally was dashed. Yet, the compression of the Ohio-Colorado group of toss up states continued. That compression, as we noted yesterday, is coupled with an overall movement toward Romney. The order of those states has to this point remained the same on the Electoral College Spectrum below. Meanwhile North Dakota jumped five spots over in the order toward the partisan line separating each candidate's list of states. And yeah, Massachusetts and Maryland switched places again.  That is less significant as a move than it is as an indication that the two are quite closely huddled together way out in safe Obama land in the far left column below.

The Electoral College Spectrum1
VT-3 (6)2	WA-12 (158)	NV-6 (257)	AZ-11 (167)	MS-6 (58)
HI-4 (10)	NJ-14 (172)	OH-183 (275/281)	MT-3 (156)	KY-8 (52)
RI-4 (14)	CT-7 (179)	IA-6 (281/263)	IN-11 (153)	AL-9 (44)
NY-29 (43)	NM-5 (184)	VA-13 (294/257)	GA-16 (142)	KS-6 (35)
MD-10 (53)	MN-10 (194)	CO-9 (303/244)	SC-9 (126)	AR-6 (29)
MA-11 (64)	OR-7 (201)	FL-29 (332/235)	NE-5 (117)	AK-3 (23)
IL-20 (84)	PA-20 (221)	NC-15 (206)	ND-3 (112)	OK-7 (20)
CA-55 (139)	MI-16 (237)	SD-3 (191)	TX-38 (109)	ID-4 (13)
DE-3 (142)	WI-10 (247)	MO-10 (188)	WV-5 (71)	WY-3 (9)
ME-4 (146)	NH-4 (251)	TN-11 (178)	LA-8 (66)	UT-6 (6)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. 2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Romney won all the states up to and including Ohio (all Obama's toss up states plus Ohio), he would have 281 electoral votes. Romney's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and Romney's is on the right in italics. 3 Ohio is the state where Obama crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line.

There were new polls in both Nevada and Ohio, but neither did enough to change either state's position on the Watch List or remove either altogether. Additionally, there were no new states with new polling data out today that threatened to jump onto the list. It was a status quo day. ...but only on the Watch List.

The Watch List1
State	Switch
Indiana	from Strong Romney	to Lean Romney
Minnesota	from Strong Obama	to Lean Obama
Montana	from Strong Romney	to Lean Romney
Nevada	from Lean Obama	to Toss Up Obama
Ohio	from Toss Up Obama	to Lean Obama
1 The Watch list shows those states in the FHQ Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories. The List is not a trend analysis. It indicates which states are straddling the line between categories and which states are most likely to shift given the introduction of new polling data. Montana, for example, is close to being a Lean Romney state, but the trajectory of the polling there has been moving the state away from that lean distinction.

Please see:

Frequently Asked Questions about FHQ graduated weighted average methodology.
&
An Update on how to read it in 2012.

Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (10/8/12)

The Electoral College Map (10/6/12)

The Electoral College Map (10/5/12)

Are you following FHQ on Twitter, Google+ and Facebook? Click on the links to join in.

The Electoral College Map (10/8/12)

Debate season, week two in the presidential campaign opened with eight new polls from seven states. Together, most of the survey data seemingly indicated a continued narrowing between the two major party candidates, particularly in the toss up states. What is interesting is that while the post-convention period polling drew some lines of demarcation between some toss up states/groups of toss up states, said lines are being redefined now. For instance, among the toss up states, there was some marked separation in the FHQ weighted average margins between Florida/North Carolina and Colorado and then between Colorado and Iowa/Virginia. That Iowa/Virginia pair had gradually drawn closer to the tipping point state of Ohio, the margin in which had widened as well. But in the time since the first debate, there has been not only a reversal of that widening across the most important states in the electoral puzzle, but a compression in terms of the resulting polling averages. In other words the states are becoming competitive and those former lines of demarcation between states is disappearing.

New State Polls (10/8/12)
State	Poll	Date	Margin of Error	Sample	Obama	Romney	Undecided	Poll Margin	FHQ Margin
Colorado	Rasmussen	10/7	+/- 4.5%	500 likely voters	49	48	2	+1	+2.23
Iowa	Rasmussen	10/7	+/- 4.5%	500 likely voters	49	47	2	+2	+2.96
Louisiana	Magellan Strategies	10/2-10/4	+/- 1.9%	2682 likely voters	36.2	58.8	4.9	+22.6	+16.15
Massachusetts	Western New England University/MassLive	9/28-10/4	+/- 4.7%	440 likely voters	63	33	3	+30	+21.08
Michigan	Foster McCollum White	10/5	+/- 2.93%	1122 likely voters	49	46	3	+3	+5.79
Michigan	EPIC/MRA	10/4-10/6	+/- 4.0%	600 likely voters	48	45	7	+3	--
Pennsylvania	Susquehanna	10/4-10/6	+/- 3.64%	725 likely voters	47	45	4	+2	+7.01
Virginia	Public Policy Polling	10/4-10/7	+/- 3.7%	725 likely voters	50	47	3	+3	+2.85

Polling Quick Hits:
Colorado:
Though Obama topped or met the 50% mark in about half of the post-convention polling in the Centennial state, the president has more or less performed at or around his FHQ average share of support. The changes/narrowing there have/has been is more about the Romney side of the equation. Just before and in the time after the debate, the governor has more consistently pulled in a share of polling support above his pre-existing weighted average. And that is in line with this notion that there is continued compression in the toss up states.

Iowa:
The same is not necessarily the case in Iowa. Methodologically/statistically speaking Iowa has been slightly more volatile from poll to poll and its average has oscillated a bit more due to a lack of polls relative to the other toss ups. The pattern is less clear, then, in the Hawkeye state and we need more post-debate data to get a firm grasp on where the state of play is there. Close, yes, but how close is the question.

Louisiana:
Hey! Some Louisiana polling data! Oh, some Louisiana polling data. Yeah, it's good to have something out of the Pelican state, but the information we did get from Magellan did not really break from the conventional wisdom that Louisiana is safely red for Romney and the Republicans.

Massachusetts:
Sure, FHQ could draw a connection between Massachusetts and Louisiana because the outlook in each  is the same -- solidly in one camp or the other -- but there has been much more data out of the Bay state. That hasn't made things any less clear there. We know Massachusetts will be an Obama state on November 6.

Michigan:
There is, perhaps, a similar outlook in Michigan, but it is certainly less strong than in Louisiana or Massachusetts. And that is a reasonable conclusion given that Michigan has been consistently blue throughout, but has spent some time as a toss up state in our averages. These two polls point toward some tightening, but do little to change the fact (given the information we have now) that Michigan may be trending more competitive, but is still likely to end up in the president's column on election day.

Pennsylvania:
See Michigan, but with the caveat that Pennsylvania has been slightly less competitive in 2012 polling of the Keystone state and that it was never a toss up as FHQ has measured it. That said, there is going to have to be additional, similar and consistent data in the Obama +2 range to bring Pennsylvania into a strategically competitive area for Romney. ...and that is not to say that that cannot happen, just that it hasn't yet.

Virginia:
We still don't have enough to go on post-debate in the Old Dominion, but this latest PPP survey did not change the FHQ average margin there at all. Both candidates outperformed their average shares of support but were still separated by a margin approximating the FHQ weighted average margin.

The separation that had developed between the groups of state mentioned at the top of this post might be disappearing but the ordering of states has remained largely unaltered. However, while that's true, if the compression continues, it is all the more likely that these states all become interchangeable to some degree. The order becomes less relevant as the toss up states cluster and more likely tip to one candidate or the other en masse (or split in less predictable ways/combinations). To this point, it should be noted that the majority of FHQ toss up states have tipped toward the president in the time since we began putting up daily electoral college updates in July.

This is a longwinded way of saying that there has been a change in direction of the trajectory of polling in the toss up states since the debate (and arguably a little bit before it), but that has yet to manifest itself in any noticeable way in the various FHQ graphical depictions of the race. The map above, for example, still shows the very same 332-206 electoral college count that it has shown all along. And sure, Massachusetts may have flip-flopped positions with Maryland again and Louisiana may have leapfrogged three states deeper into the Romney column, but among the states that will decide the final breakdown on the electoral vote tally -- the middle column in the Electoral College Spectrum below -- there has been no movement.

The Electoral College Spectrum1
VT-3 (6)2	WA-12 (158)	NV-6 (257)	AZ-11 (167)	KY-8 (55)
HI-4 (10)	NJ-14 (172)	OH-183 (275/281)	MT-3 (156)	ND-3 (47)
RI-4 (14)	CT-7 (179)	IA-6 (281/263)	IN-11 (153)	AL-9 (44)
NY-29 (43)	NM-5 (184)	VA-13 (294/257)	GA-16 (142)	KS-6 (35)
MA-11 (54)	MN-10 (194)	CO-9 (303/244)	SC-9 (126)	AR-6 (29)
MD-10 (64)	OR-7 (201)	FL-29 (332/235)	NE-5 (117)	AK-3 (23)
IL-20 (84)	PA-20 (221)	NC-15 (206)	TX-38 (112)	OK-7 (20)
CA-55 (139)	MI-16 (237)	SD-3 (191)	WV-5 (74)	ID-4 (13)
DE-3 (142)	WI-10 (247)	MO-10 (188)	LA-8 (69)	WY-3 (9)
ME-4 (146)	NH-4 (251)	TN-11 (178)	MS-6 (61)	UT-6 (6)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. 2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Romney won all the states up to and including Ohio (all Obama's toss up states plus Ohio), he would have 281 electoral votes. Romney's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and Romney's is on the right in italics. 3 Ohio is the state where Obama crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line.

Where we can begin to or appreciate the movement that is occurring is perhaps on the ever-changing Watch List. Most consequentially, we have witnessed first Virginia and now Iowa slip off the list into a firmer position within the Toss Up Obama category. Neither is seemingly threatening to shift into the less competitive Lean Obama category now that the trajectory of polling has changed. As such, less competitive states like Indiana, Minnesota and Montana are not particularly worthy of watching -- despite being on the list -- but Ohio moving off the list and Nevada switching from a lean state on the verge of being a toss up to a toss up within a fraction of a point of being a lean state are certainly states to keep tabs on.

The Watch List1
State	Switch
Indiana	from Strong Romney	to Lean Romney
Minnesota	from Strong Obama	to Lean Obama
Montana	from Strong Romney	to Lean Romney
Nevada	from Lean Obama	to Toss Up Obama
Ohio	from Toss Up Obama	to Lean Obama
1 The Watch list shows those states in the FHQ Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories. The List is not a trend analysis. It indicates which states are straddling the line between categories and which states are most likely to shift given the introduction of new polling data. Montana, for example, is close to being a Lean Romney state, but the trajectory of the polling there has been moving the state away from that lean distinction.

Please see:

Frequently Asked Questions about FHQ graduated weighted average methodology.
&
An Update on how to read it in 2012.

Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (10/6/12)

The Electoral College Map (10/5/12)

The Electoral College Map (10/4/12)

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