Monday, October 8, 2012

The Electoral College Map (10/8/12)

Debate season, week two in the presidential campaign opened with eight new polls from seven states. Together, most of the survey data seemingly indicated a continued narrowing between the two major party candidates, particularly in the toss up states. What is interesting is that while the post-convention period polling drew some lines of demarcation between some toss up states/groups of toss up states, said lines are being redefined now. For instance, among the toss up states, there was some marked separation in the FHQ weighted average margins between Florida/North Carolina and Colorado and then between Colorado and Iowa/Virginia. That Iowa/Virginia pair had gradually drawn closer to the tipping point state of Ohio, the margin in which had widened as well. But in the time since the first debate, there has been not only a reversal of that widening across the most important states in the electoral puzzle, but a compression in terms of the resulting polling averages. In other words the states are becoming competitive and those former lines of demarcation between states is disappearing.

New State Polls (10/8/12)
State
Poll
Date
Margin of Error
Sample
Obama
Romney
Undecided
Poll Margin
FHQ Margin
Colorado
10/7
+/- 4.5%
500 likely voters
49
48
2
+1
+2.23
Iowa
10/7
+/- 4.5%
500 likely voters
49
47
2
+2
+2.96
Louisiana
10/2-10/4
+/- 1.9%
2682 likely voters
36.2
58.8
4.9
+22.6
+16.15
Massachusetts
9/28-10/4
+/- 4.7%
440 likely voters
63
33
3
+30
+21.08
Michigan
10/5
+/- 2.93%
1122 likely voters
49
46
3
+3
+5.79
Michigan
10/4-10/6
+/- 4.0%
600 likely voters
48
45
7
+3
--
Pennsylvania
10/4-10/6
+/- 3.64%
725 likely voters
47
45
4
+2
+7.01
Virginia
10/4-10/7
+/- 3.7%
725 likely voters
50
47
3
+3
+2.85

Polling Quick Hits:
Colorado:
Though Obama topped or met the 50% mark in about half of the post-convention polling in the Centennial state, the president has more or less performed at or around his FHQ average share of support. The changes/narrowing there have/has been is more about the Romney side of the equation. Just before and in the time after the debate, the governor has more consistently pulled in a share of polling support above his pre-existing weighted average. And that is in line with this notion that there is continued compression in the toss up states.

Iowa:
The same is not necessarily the case in Iowa. Methodologically/statistically speaking Iowa has been slightly more volatile from poll to poll and its average has oscillated a bit more due to a lack of polls relative to the other toss ups. The pattern is less clear, then, in the Hawkeye state and we need more post-debate data to get a firm grasp on where the state of play is there. Close, yes, but how close is the question.

Louisiana:
Hey! Some Louisiana polling data! Oh, some Louisiana polling data. Yeah, it's good to have something out of the Pelican state, but the information we did get from Magellan did not really break from the conventional wisdom that Louisiana is safely red for Romney and the Republicans.

Massachusetts:
Sure, FHQ could draw a connection between Massachusetts and Louisiana because the outlook in each  is the same -- solidly in one camp or the other -- but there has been much more data out of the Bay state. That hasn't made things any less clear there. We know Massachusetts will be an Obama state on November 6.

Michigan:
There is, perhaps, a similar outlook in Michigan, but it is certainly less strong than in Louisiana or Massachusetts. And that is a reasonable conclusion given that Michigan has been consistently blue throughout, but has spent some time as a toss up state in our averages. These two polls point toward some tightening, but do little to change the fact (given the information we have now) that Michigan may be trending more competitive, but is still likely to end up in the president's column on election day.

Pennsylvania:
See Michigan, but with the caveat that Pennsylvania has been slightly less competitive in 2012 polling of the Keystone state and that it was never a toss up as FHQ has measured it. That said, there is going to have to be additional, similar and consistent data in the Obama +2 range to bring Pennsylvania into a strategically competitive area for Romney. ...and that is not to say that that cannot happen, just that it hasn't yet.

Virginia:
We still don't have enough to go on post-debate in the Old Dominion, but this latest PPP survey did not change the FHQ average margin there at all. Both candidates outperformed their average shares of support but were still separated by a margin approximating the FHQ weighted average margin.


The separation that had developed between the groups of state mentioned at the top of this post might be disappearing but the ordering of states has remained largely unaltered. However, while that's true, if the compression continues, it is all the more likely that these states all become interchangeable to some degree. The order becomes less relevant as the toss up states cluster and more likely tip to one candidate or the other en masse (or split in less predictable ways/combinations). To this point, it should be noted that the majority of FHQ toss up states have tipped toward the president in the time since we began putting up daily electoral college updates in July.

This is a longwinded way of saying that there has been a change in direction of the trajectory of polling in the toss up states since the debate (and arguably a little bit before it), but that has yet to manifest itself in any noticeable way in the various FHQ graphical depictions of the race. The map above, for example, still shows the very same 332-206 electoral college count that it has shown all along. And sure, Massachusetts may have flip-flopped positions with Maryland again and Louisiana may have leapfrogged three states deeper into the Romney column, but among the states that will decide the final breakdown on the electoral vote tally -- the middle column in the Electoral College Spectrum below -- there has been no movement.

The Electoral College Spectrum1
VT-3
(6)2
WA-12
(158)
NV-6
(257)
AZ-11
(167)
KY-8
(55)
HI-4
(10)
NJ-14
(172)
OH-183
(275/281)
MT-3
(156)
ND-3
(47)
RI-4
(14)
CT-7
(179)
IA-6
(281/263)
IN-11
(153)
AL-9
(44)
NY-29
(43)
NM-5
(184)
VA-13
(294/257)
GA-16
(142)
KS-6
(35)
MA-11
(54)
MN-10
(194)
CO-9
(303/244)
SC-9
(126)
AR-6
(29)
MD-10
(64)
OR-7
(201)
FL-29
(332/235)
NE-5
(117)
AK-3
(23)
IL-20
(84)
PA-20
(221)
NC-15
(206)
TX-38
(112)
OK-7
(20)
CA-55
(139)
MI-16
(237)
SD-3
(191)
WV-5
(74)
ID-4
(13)
DE-3
(142)
WI-10
(247)
MO-10
(188)
LA-8
(69)
WY-3
(9)
ME-4
(146)
NH-4
(251)
TN-11
(178)
MS-6
(61)
UT-6
(6)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.

2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Romney won all the states up to and including Ohio (all Obama's toss up states plus Ohio), he would have 281 electoral votes. Romney's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and Romney's is on the right in italics.

3 Ohio is the state where Obama crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line.

Where we can begin to or appreciate the movement that is occurring is perhaps on the ever-changing Watch List. Most consequentially, we have witnessed first Virginia and now Iowa slip off the list into a firmer position within the Toss Up Obama category. Neither is seemingly threatening to shift into the less competitive Lean Obama category now that the trajectory of polling has changed. As such, less competitive states like Indiana, Minnesota and Montana are not particularly worthy of watching -- despite being on the list -- but Ohio moving off the list and Nevada switching from a lean state on the verge of being a toss up to a toss up within a fraction of a point of being a lean state are certainly states to keep tabs on.

The Watch List1
State
Switch
Indiana
from Strong Romney
to Lean Romney
Minnesota
from Strong Obama
to Lean Obama
Montana
from Strong Romney
to Lean Romney
Nevada
from Lean Obama
to Toss Up Obama
Ohio
from Toss Up Obama
to Lean Obama
1 The Watch list shows those states in the FHQ Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories. The List is not a trend analysis. It indicates which states are straddling the line between categories and which states are most likely to shift given the introduction of new polling data. Montana, for example, is close to being a Lean Romney state, but the trajectory of the polling there has been moving the state away from that lean distinction.

Please see:



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Saturday, October 6, 2012

The Electoral College Map (10/6/12)

As we roll into the weekend following the first presidential debate, things have quieted down some as most pollsters are in the field gauging public opinion after the events of Wednesday night took the snow globe, turned it upside down and shook it rather vigorously. Now that the globe is back on the table, we wait. We wait for the flakes to settle in and give us the proper picture of what the new normal -- to the extent there is something new to it -- is in this race for the White House.

There were some poll releases on Saturday, but nothing like what we are likely to get once we get into next week. The information that did emerge is consistent with the comments FHQ made on Friday. There is some evidence to suggest that the peak margin of Obama's lead was reached last week sometime and that the trajectory -- perhaps even more so now post-debate -- is headed downward. That isn't to say that Obama's weighted average is necessarily headed south, but rather that the margin in toss up states may be narrowing. Saturday's polls tell that same tale.

New State Polls (10/6/12)
State
Poll
Date
Margin of Error
Sample
Obama
Romney
Undecided
Poll Margin
FHQ Margin
Colorado
10/3-10/4
+/- 2.8%
1285 likely voters
45.9
49.4
4.8
+3.5
+2.28
Colorado
10/4-10/5
+/- 4.0%
604 likely voters
47
43
5
+4
--
Wisconsin
10/4-10/6
+/- 3.1%
979 likely voters
49
47
3
+2
+5.29

Polling Quick Hits:
Colorado:
The two polls out of Colorado were a bit of a mixed bag. Romney up four in one poll and Obama leading in the other. The Gravis poll slightly understates Obama's support relative to the pre-existing FHQ weighted average and indicates a pretty good jump for Romney (...again, compared to the FHQ average of the governor's support). On the other hand the Selzer survey was in line with the Obama average once these polls were added into the dataset and understated Romney's. But again, the divergent results -- polling volatility -- are more a function of the snow globe being shaken up. Subsequent polls will help us to determine where the true measure of the race is.

Wisconsin:
Compared to the last -- pre-debate -- PPP survey of the Badger state, the margin in this one is down 5 points overall (from a seven point gap before to just two points now). Poll-to-poll, Obama is down three and Romney up two. The effect is that the trajectory of the race -- if not the FHQ weighted average -- in Wisconsin is turning around some. If subsequent polling backs this up then the margin will have peaked earlier this past week before shifting in the other direction; narrowing.


None of the three polls had much of an impact on the various graphical representations of the race FHQ provides. In the parlance that we have come to adopt of late, these polls were (re)calibrating surveys. The new data altered the averages without affecting the overarching ordering of states involved. In other words, the debate effect has been felt -- so far -- in a uniform fashion; that Colorado remains a little to the right of Wisconsin. ...still. As a result both states remained stationary on both the map and on the Electoral College Spectrum below.

The Electoral College Spectrum1
VT-3
(6)2
WA-12
(158)
NV-6
(257)
AZ-11
(167)
ND-3
(55)
HI-4
(10)
NJ-14
(172)
OH-183
(275/281)
MT-3
(156)
KY-8
(52)
RI-4
(14)
CT-7
(179)
IA-6
(281/263)
IN-11
(153)
AL-9
(44)
NY-29
(43)
NM-5
(184)
VA-13
(294/257)
GA-16
(142)
KS-6
(35)
MD-10
(53)
MN-10
(194)
CO-9
(303/244)
SC-9
(126)
AR-6
(29)
MA-11
(64)
OR-7
(201)
FL-29
(332/235)
LA-8
(117)
AK-3
(23)
IL-20
(84)
PA-20
(221)
NC-15
(206)
NE-5
(109)
OK-7
(20)
CA-55
(139)
MI-16
(237)
SD-3
(191)
TX-38
(104)
ID-4
(13)
DE-3
(142)
WI-10
(247)
MO-10
(188)
WV-5
(66)
WY-3
(9)
ME-4
(146)
NH-4
(251)
TN-11
(178)
MS-6
(61)
UT-6
(6)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.

2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Romney won all the states up to and including Ohio (all Obama's toss up states plus Ohio), he would have 281 electoral votes. Romney's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and Romney's is on the right in italics.

3 Ohio is the state where Obama crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line.

Very briefly, the Watch List -- the handful of states within a fraction of a point of changing categories in the FHQ weighted averages -- held steady as compared to the list a day ago. At just six states, the list is limited, but that could change depending upon where the polling takes us as we move into a new week.

The Watch List1
State
Switch
Indiana
from Strong Romney
to Lean Romney
Iowa
from Toss Up Obama
to Lean Obama
Minnesota
from Strong Obama
to Lean Obama
Montana
from Strong Romney
to Lean Romney
Nevada
from Lean Obama
to Toss Up Obama
Ohio
from Toss Up Obama
to Lean Obama
1 The Watch list shows those states in the FHQ Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories. The List is not a trend analysis. It indicates which states are straddling the line between categories and which states are most likely to shift given the introduction of new polling data. Montana, for example, is close to being a Lean Romney state, but the trajectory of the polling there has been moving the state away from that lean distinction.

Please see:



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Friday, October 5, 2012

The Electoral College Map (10/5/12)

And so it begins. The first post-debate polls to be released in a handful of toss up states seems to indicate that Romney got something positive out of his debate performance on Wednesday night. In fact, for the first time in several weeks, FHQ will break from the "confirming poll" language that has marked the post-convention period. Instead, if today is any indication, we will begin talking about recalibrating or narrowing polls.

But keep in mind that the same logic that was in place post-convention is now in place post-debate. The question isn't necessarily how much of a bounce Romney gets but how long said bounce persists. If the expectation is that this bounce recedes quickly, then this initial wave of survey data in these most important toss up states may hypothetically provide the high point in the arc of the bounce. If, however, the expectation is that the bounce elongates some before decaying, then the polling may not yet have reached the apex of that bounce.

As we have discussed over the last few pre-debate days, baselines (and thus expectations) had been set through most of the toss ups, and those baseline ranges in which most polls margins tend to occur to some degree will be recalibrated -- in Romney's direction most likely.

New State Polls (10/5/12)
State
Poll
Date
Margin of Error
Sample
Obama
Romney
Undecided
Poll Margin
FHQ Margin
Colorado
9/30-10/2
+/- 5.7%
300 likely voters
46
50
4
+4
+2.46
Florida
10/4
+/- 4.5%
500 likely voters
47
49
3
+2
+1.10
Florida
10/4
+/- 3.0%
1200 likely voters
46
49
4
+3
--
Nevada
10/3
+/- 3.1%
1006 likely voters
48.9
47.8
3.3
+1.1
+4.61
Ohio
10/4
+/- 4.5%
500 likely voters
50
49
1
+1
+3.73
Ohio
10/4
+/- 3.0%
1200 likely voters
46
47
6
+1
--
Virginia
10/4
+/- 4.5%
500 likely voters
48
49
3
+1
+2.85
Virginia
10/4
+/- 3.0%
1200 likely voters
45
48
5
+3
--

Polling Quick Hits:
Colorado:
Rasmussen showed Colorado as Romney +2 a couple of weeks ago, but that was an outlier in a sea of Obama +3-5 results. Given that this new McLaughlin poll was in the field prior to the debate, it. too, either looks like an outlier or as some evidence of some measure of pre-debate shift toward Romney. Regardless, it has been since and early August Q poll that we have seen Colorado this far in the governor's direction. Context matters on this one and it was in the field before the debate.

Florida:
Both Rasmussen and We Ask America were in the field the day after the debate in Florida, Ohio and Virginia and the one thing that is evident across both firms and all three states is that Mitt Romney gained. And the balance tipped toward Romney in a manner that is consistent with how those states are aligned relative to each other. There were greater Romney advantages in Florida than in Virginia and greater leads in Virginia than in Ohio. But all three were newly, evenly competitive. Florida, close to the partisan line on the Electoral College Spectrum below already, began to tick down in the FHQ weighted averages. Then again, Florida saw its peak on the Obama side earlier this week following the addition of the Suffolk poll. The Sunshine state began to track down when the latest Gravis poll was added.

Nevada:
Speaking of Gravis, the Florida-based firm was in the field in the Silver state on debate night itself and found a much closer race than several, though not the majority of, post-convention polls. Buoyed by the Obama +11 from We Ask America last week, Nevada had jumped into range of coming off the Watch List (see below) as a comfortably Lean Obama state. But if the Gravis survey is any marker, then that may be about to change.

Ohio:
If this first wave of post-debate polling is indicative, then Ohio like Florida and Nevada above may also have seen the height of post-convention margins in Obama's favor. Certainly, the Obama +8 Marist poll may have overinflated the FHQ average some (It nearly pushed the Buckeye state into the Lean Obama category.), but on the strength of these two, much closer polls, that may be beginning to turn around and head in the opposite direction. Just for a glimpse inside one of these states, Obama's share of support is consistent with the FHQ average in the We Ask America poll but is well above where FHQ has the Obama average share charted in the Rasmussen survey. Romney, on the other hand, is above the established average baseline of support in both polls, but more so in the Rasmussen survey.

Virginia:
The take home from these two polls in the Old Dominion is much the same as it was in Ohio or Florida. In Virginia, though, that translates into a transition from a +2-4 Obama edge before the debate to a +2-3 Romney lead in the first, post-debate wave of polling. But that turnaround was underway -- not to the same extent, mind you -- last week.


Again, looking at this through a strategic lens, the same principle stated at the outset of this post applies. If the electoral calculus of this race is to change following this and the subsequent debates, then the question remains one not of whether there was a bounce and how much of an dent it put in Obama's pre-debate advantages, but how long it lasts. A lasting effect will gradually bring the FHQ averages down toward parity in some toss ups and may push a handful of states already there (Florida and North Carolina) either over the partisan line into the Romney side or more fully into the Romney column. As it stands now after the first wave of post-debate polling, though, the status quo was maintained. And FHQ hinted at this above, but where it counts -- in the middle column of Electoral College Spectrum -- the same order remains as well with just one exception. Virginia switched places with Iowa after claiming the spot immediately under Ohio just last week. The other polling changes only served to affect the average margin between the candidates and not the overall order of states. In other words, the shifts were mostly though not exactly uniform in this first, very early wave.

The Electoral College Spectrum1
VT-3
(6)2
WA-12
(158)
NV-6
(257)
AZ-11
(167)
ND-3
(55)
HI-4
(10)
NJ-14
(172)
OH-183
(275/281)
MT-3
(156)
KY-8
(52)
RI-4
(14)
CT-7
(179)
IA-6
(281/263)
IN-11
(153)
AL-9
(44)
NY-29
(43)
NM-5
(184)
VA-13
(294/257)
GA-16
(142)
KS-6
(35)
MD-10
(53)
MN-10
(194)
CO-9
(303/244)
SC-9
(126)
AR-6
(29)
MA-11
(64)
OR-7
(201)
FL-29
(332/235)
LA-8
(117)
AK-3
(23)
IL-20
(84)
PA-20
(221)
NC-15
(206)
NE-5
(109)
OK-7
(20)
CA-55
(139)
MI-16
(237)
SD-3
(191)
TX-38
(104)
ID-4
(13)
DE-3
(142)
WI-10
(247)
MO-10
(188)
WV-5
(66)
WY-3
(9)
ME-4
(146)
NH-4
(251)
TN-11
(178)
MS-6
(61)
UT-6
(6)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.

2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Romney won all the states up to and including Ohio (all Obama's toss up states plus Ohio), he would have 281 electoral votes. Romney's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and Romney's is on the right in italics.

3 Ohio is the state where Obama crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line.

Virginia's jump past Iowa on the Spectrum also pushed it off the Watch List into a firmer position within the Toss Up Obama category. The remaining states retained their positions on the cusp of changing categories.

The Watch List1
State
Switch
Indiana
from Strong Romney
to Lean Romney
Iowa
from Toss Up Obama
to Lean Obama
Minnesota
from Strong Obama
to Lean Obama
Montana
from Strong Romney
to Lean Romney
Nevada
from Lean Obama
to Toss Up Obama
Ohio
from Toss Up Obama
to Lean Obama
1 The Watch list shows those states in the FHQ Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories. The List is not a trend analysis. It indicates which states are straddling the line between categories and which states are most likely to shift given the introduction of new polling data. Montana, for example, is close to being a Lean Romney state, but the trajectory of the polling there has been moving the state away from that lean distinction.

Please see:


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